Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots November 20, 2018 - Tape Tuesday

Episode Date: November 20, 2018

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Hey there everybody, welcome on into a taped Tuesday installment of the Locked On Patriots podcast. Mark Schofield back in the big chair on Tuesday, November 20th, 2018. For those of you listening here in the United States, we're just closing in on Thanksgiving Day with a slate of three games which will be fun to watch. Hope everybody's Thanksgiving Day plans for those of you listening, which will be fun to watch. Hope everybody's Thanksgiving Day plans, for those of you listening in the States, are starting to come together nicely. Hope you got your shopping done.

As I said, you do it Saturday night. That's the time to get it done. For those of you listening around the world, always a pleasure to have you on board. Our usual Tape Tuesday fair is going to be slightly different today. Obviously, no game to break down, so we're going to look ahead. We're going to talk Jets offense. We're going to talk Jets offense. We're going to talk Jets defense. And then a little bit later, elicitor request.

Breaking down Josh Gordon. And as I said, when moms puts in a request, you best adhere to it. Before we do all that though, reminder to follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. Check out the work at places like The Score where I do two pieces a week. First breaking down key plays, schemes from Sunday. Twitter at Mark Schofield. Check out the work at places like The Score where I do two pieces a week. First, breaking down key plays, schemes from Sunday and then looking ahead to some other scheme stuff for later in the week. Follow the work at profootballweekly.com.

I'm going to make sure to basically eat a piece that goes out at the start of each week. The Score, Matt Waldman's rookie scouting portfolio, big blue view part of the SB Nation family of website. It's going to be looking at Eli Manning a little bit later this week. If there's an outlet that's covering football, chances are they've got me doing some work about the game we all love for them. Let's get into it right now. We're going to start with the Jets offense.

Excuse me. Start with the Jets offense. And obviously the big question sort of hinges on Sam Darnold's foot. Sam Darnold possibly, possibly could be back for this Patriots game on Sunday, although he slowed by a strange right foot, did not practice Monday, although his condition according to Newsday has improved, and he was able to jog without pain on Monday. The reason why we have to start with Donald is because this Jets offense is different with him and without him. With Sam Donald, there's sort of a playmaking component, at least to the offense. There's a bit more ability in the downfield passing game than with Josh McCown, certainly against the Buffalo Bills, which is a game I'm going to talk about in a minute.

Now, statistically, look, it's not like Donald's been lighting up the scoreboard. I was completed 55% of his passes, sub 60% for under 2,000 yards, 11 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, adjusted net yards per attempt of 4.0, which, friends, is not great. Adjusted net yards per attempt, it is one of many metrics you can point to, but I think there is some validity to it. And his adjusted net yards per attempt of 4.5 is 32nd amongst qualified passers, above only Josh Rosen and Josh Allen. Prolific passers such as C.J. Bathard, Brock Osweiler, Jameis Winston, Case Keenum, Ryan Tannehill, all having better seasons, at least according to adjusted net yards per attempt. Now with Darnold, like I said, there's a little bit of a playmaking component that he brings to the table. He's got a little bit more of ability to

push the ball downfield than Josh McCown. He's a little bit more athletic than Josh McCown, so he can extend plays better. If he goes, it's going to be, yes, the sort of mobile quarterback that has given the Patriots fits throughout this season and in seasons past. So there's that component to the Sam Darnold question. Schematically, at least looking at how they've used him and they've used Josh McGowan, particularly last week against the Buffalo Bills, they don't do a lot in the passing game. I think that kind of puts it mildly. Now, I don't know if it's whether they feel that they had to restrict the playbook because of Donald, and then when Josh McGowan sort of took over, they felt they had to do the

same thing because he wasn't getting a ton of reps up until Donald got hurt or what. But they don't do a ton of variety in the pass game. And I will say this. I was somebody that was firmly in John Morton's camp last year. I thought he did a fantastic job with the offense he was handed, with the players he was handed. Josh McGowan had a career-type season. They were mixing some West Coast, some Air Raid.

I was a fan of what they were doing. This year, the offense seems more, I don't want to say high school-ish, but there's not a lot of variety. I had a great question submitted to me on Twitter from Square One, who is at Square, S-Q-U-A-R-E, the number one, underscore NYC, who asked, basically, are there any sort of go-to route concepts, like last year was slant flat, that you can chime in on when you talk about the Jets? And it seems to me that the one that Jeremy Bates likes to turn to a ton

are flood concepts and shallow cross concepts. Flood concepts, three receiver, three level stretch, usually to the right side of the field. And what Bates likes to do is set up a flood concept with cross and routes. And so if you've got that three level stretch, say to the right side of the field, you'll probably see outside receiver go vertical. Maybe if there's a slot receiver to that side, he's going to release to the flat. And then you bring that crosser over from the other side to set up that intermediate stretch. So you have the flat route, the intermediate stretch along the sideline that takes the form of a crosser coming from left to right, and then a vertical go route.

Or they will do that where you have both the route to the flat and the route to the middle come from the left side. So you get vertical route from a single receiver side and then two crossers that basically create that flood three-level stretch to the right. And they will do it to the right nine times out of 10. So that's one concept they will turn to a ton. Another is sort of shallow cross where you've got dig route, shallow cross underneath it from the opposite sides of the field. Every once in a while, we'll have that more sort of drive concept look,

where you've got dig route and shallow route from the same side of the formation. But they'd like to do stuff like that a ton. They'd like to pair that shallow cross concept with matching comebacks along each boundary. So you get outside receivers pushing vertical, then breaking back, and then that shallow cross. So you've got dig route and then the shallow route underneath it from opposite sides. And that's almost a mirrored passing concept because it sets up the mirrored comebacks on the outside,

and then that sort of high-low, the second-level defenders with that dig route and the shallow cross. That's another thing they love to do. They will go to mesh variants a lot, and they like to pair those, again, with vertical routes on the outside, this time go routes, and then mesh routes where they're sometimes shallow, sometimes a little bit deeper, where they're more like crossing routes,

attacking not in front of the second level defenders but behind them. And they'll throw in a sit route in front of that. So typically when you see mesh concept, you see the shallow routes underneath and that sit route over the middle of the field that's deeper at about 8 to 10 yards. They sort of flip that at times. So you get the mesh deeper and the sit route underneath it. So it's the sit route that occupies the underneath defenders and they try to get those crossers behind the second level defenders, but in front of the safeties. Stick concept. They will go to the stick concept a ton, where you've got two out routes and a

vertical route. Again, they do a lot of half field type reads. You're building an offense for a rookie quarterback. This is the type of stuff you're going to see. In terms of an execution standpoint, one last thing I will mention, they do a ton on the screen game. A ton in the tunnel screen game, smoke screen game. Another thing they will love to do is Quincy and Nguyen Hoang. If they see off coverage, they will just throw to him on smoke routes. So that is one thing to be aware of. They will do that as much as possible. They like to do a lot with sort of max protection.

They will do these flood concepts with just two or three receivers and keep everybody else into block. They went play action dagger concept with a vertical route from the slot receiver and a dig route from the outside receiver. They did that max protection to receivers, just those guys out there. Coverage was great, and Josh McCown gets sacked on that. And so the execution has been bad. These guys don't get a ton of separation. Sometimes when they do, they miss opportunities. For example, they had one of those flood-type concepts with two crossers and a vertical route working to the right. Eric Tomlinson, their reserve tight end, number 83,

he's backside, chipping release. He's wide open and flat. And Josh McCown just can't hit him. Gets tipped at the line of scrimmage. That's another thing I noticed from McCown, against Buffalo at least, a lot of tipped passes. As far as the run game,

it's a mix of zone and power, and they've got some guys that struggle up front in the blocking game. Let's just be honest about that. For example, second and five play against Buffalo. Inside power, Maguire loses one yard to center at the point of attack. He just can't hold his block.

Kyle Williams, shaded, tilted nose guard, just overpowers him. Jonathan Harris, can't execute, can't finish. They go zone to the right, left tackle, Kelvin Beacham. He cannot get to the second level in time. Linebacker flows, makes the tackle. Now, Buffalo did a ton at the line of. Linebacker flows. Makes the tackle. Now Buffalo did a ton at the line of scrimmage with Stack in the box. Depending on who goes, it might not even matter.

I'd expect New England to put a lot of guys in the box and basically say, look, we don't trust you to throw the ball downfield. Another run play. They go outside zone to Christopher Herndon's side. He's play side. You're going to make that reach block on Jerry Hughes. He can't get out there in time. Hughes chops down the running back for a loss of seven.

Hughes just whoops him at the point of attack. So it's an execution standpoint. Their biggest plays in the run game seem to come from guys breaking tackles. So tackling is going to be huge. They also had a running back screen that went for 18 on a second and 17 against Buffalo. Isaiah Corral just made people miss. Offensive line got out in front. Nobody hit anybody. Nobody blocked anybody. They had three shots at them. They just missed tackles. So tackling is going to be huge against this offense. On the whole, I think this is a favorable matchup for the Patriots' defense. I don't think this offense right now is that good.

Just fact of life from watching the film on them. Now, it's a divisional game. And so, obviously, you are concerned. Look, divisional game, crazy things happen. This is a Jets team that played them tough. The Jets defense, which we'll talk about, has at least one guy that is certainly becoming a star in this league. But the other matter is it's going to be on the road. So it's a road home game.

Those can get dicey at times. But at least when the Jets are on the field with the offense, I do feel pretty confident about the Patriots taking care of business. Up next, we're going to talk about the Pats when they have the ball. But first, it's getting into the holiday season, and you're probably putting together wish lists. You're probably putting together ideas of what you're going to get, some friends and family in your life.

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Mark Schofield back with you now on this Tape Tuesday installment of Locked on Patriots. I'm going to shift gears, talk about the Jets' defense a bit, and I'm going to have two numbers for you that give me some pause about this game and this matchup when the Patriots have the football, and Tom Brady goes up against this Jets defense. But to start, look, this defense isn't that bad. You look at some of the numbers, for example, pass a rating of opposing quarterbacks, just 88, which is 25th.

And if I'm flipping around, it's 8th best as a defense. They're giving up adjusted net yards per attempt of just 6.0, which is tied for ninth amongst the defenses. The passing defense is pretty good. You know, the run defense, you know, that kind of gets skewed a little bit because maybe they're playing from behind, you know, but they're giving up 119.5 yards per game. That's ninth, excuse me, that's 13th most in the league. So that sort of skews in the Patriots' favor. But again, part of that is game script. Yards per game isn't the best sort of indicator of a run defense. Maybe you look at yards per attempt, which is 4.2, which is 20th most. So they're a little bit stingier when it comes to just yards per attempt. But here are the numbers that give me pause. And first is 39.7, and that's a percentage.

What that is, and again, I've mentioned before that you have to follow NFL Matchup on Twitter, at NFL Matchup. These are the people who put together the NFL Matchup show on ESPN. 39.7% is the percentage of times a defense makes an offense go three plays and out. 39.7%, that's the New York Jets percentage this year of forcing three and outs. That's best

in the league. And if you want to put together sort of the script, the recipe, the you know, the dream situation for a team like the Jets to pull off an upset is to get some three and outs early, maybe get some field position, and get on top of New England early.

You know, because this isn't an offense, I don't think, that's built to sort of come from behind and pull off a come-from-behind victory over the New England Patriots. And so this defense, by the percentages, is good at getting off the field, is good at sort of those three-and-out situations. Those can invigorate a crowd. So that's the first number. The second number that has me a little bit concerned about this matchup is 33.

That's Jamal Adams, former first-round pick last year, strong safety for the Jets. And he's a player. This defense has some holes. It's got some question marks up front. It's got some question marks at the linebacker spot. It's got some question marks at the cornerback spot. Marcus Mays is a guy that I think you can beat.

He's their free safety. He was also drafted early last year in the second round. But Adams is a player. He's always down near the line of scrimmage or tends to be down near the line of scrimmage or tends to be down near the line of scrimmage. Matt Barkley, who had a huge game against the Jets two weeks ago when these teams last were on the field,

he actually missed some opportunities thanks to Jamal Adams to have an even bigger game. Barkley goes 15 of 25 for 232, two touchdowns. But he had a vertical route. And there's a blitz with Adams. Adams almost gets home. But forces a miss, a misfire on a vertical route,

which was wide open, which would have been six. And on that play, this is, if you want to check it out first quarter 814 mark in the first quarter it's a first intense situation Jets are in cover one they play a lot of cover one so there are opportunities there to win some routes against guys like Tremaine Johnson in particular who seems to be struggling he got beat on the open and play of the game on a vertical route but this play at the 814 mark first and 10 814 in the first quarter Kelvin Benjamin's wide open on a vertical route. But this play at the 8-14 mark, first and 10, 8-14 of the first quarter, Kelvin Benjamin's wide open on a vertical route.

Adams blitzes through the left B gap and absolutely destroys LaShawn McCoy. Just flattens him. And puts pressure on Barkley, and Barkley misfires. Otherwise, it's six. So you gotta know where 33 is at all times. The Bills did this a ton. They would go split zone look with jet motion off of it.

So you're doing a lot of misdirection. Nine times out of 10 when they did that, every other linebacker was going one way, every other second level or third level defender was sucked up by the misdirection. And Adams was where he needed to be, whether it was the right hole, the right run fit, the right lane. Sometimes he put himself right in the hole and just either missed the tackle. One time he's getting blocked in the back and it wasn't called.

That kid can play. And so the Patriots need to know where 33 is at all times. Some other stuff to mention with this defense, you can run misdirection on them. You can run to the edges on them. There are times when guys are either late to fill their responsibilities, late to set the edge. They will lose contain.

LeSean McCoy had a big run on a draw play, a simple inside draw but Jeremiah Attitude gets sucked inside loses the edge he bounces it to the outside so there will be opportunities to hit some plays on these guys to the edges secondary struggles at times

I mentioned Tremaine Johnson players were getting open against him left and right so I would look for New England to find where 22 is on the field, try to get him matched up against Josh Gordon, who we're going to talk about in a minute. It takes some opportunities in the passing game against him. So there's some plays to be made against him.

There's also some plays to be made against Marcus Mays. They play cover one a lot. So they ask him to be man free, read the eyes of the quarterback. He gets out of position a lot. Buffalo they ask him to be man free. Read the eyes of the quarterback. He gets out of position a lot. Buffalo went Mills concept. They showed him a dig route in front of him. He bites down on it.

Post route over the top. He's not in position to help. It's wide open. Barkley just misses it. Another play where Barkley had a chance to put even more points on the board than they did. And he didn't finish. Didn't complete the throw. They picked on Tremaine Johnson a lot in this game.

Buffalo did. They would do some design stuff to the flats when they would get him into man coverage situations and then sort of rub off of him. So I think 22 is the guy they're going to go after. I think they'll go after Mays as well in the passing game in the middle of the field. I think if both

Gronk and Gordon are in this game, you're going to see some Mills-type concepts with Gronk on that crosser and Gordon over the top trying to get that matchup, trying to get Mays to bite down, throw that post right over his head to Josh Gordon. So I think there are plays to be made against this defense. I'm worried about the three and outs. I'm worried about Jamal Adams.

The rest of it doesn't scare me right now too much So that's sort of an early look at this Jets defense up next. We're gonna look at Josh Gordon I know we talked about him a couple weeks ago But the number one listener and the number one fan of the show my mom at Carol's go on Twitter put on a request To take a look at Josh Gordon. So I'm gonna talk about his game against the Titans a little bit more That's ahead on this tapepe Tuesday installment of Locked On Patriots. Mark Skolkoff, we're back with you now to close out this Tape Tuesday installment of the Locked On Patriots podcast.

And again, we're going to talk some Josh Gordon right now. And why? Well, because if you're a good son or daughter, when your mom asks you to do something, you do it. And loyal listener to the show, my mom, at Carol mom asks you to do something, you do it. And loyal listener to the show, my mom, at CarolSkoll on Twitter, put in a request to talk about some Josh Gordon. And so we're going to talk about Josh Gordon. We're going to go back to that game against the Titans. And I want to talk sort of two big picture things at the start. One more micro, even though it's

big picture, and one more macro. First is the micro. In the context of this game against Tennessee, I do believe that there was a concerted pregame game plan type effort that when they saw cover one, when they saw man coverage with Josh Gordon against Adore Jackson, they thought it was a matchup that they could win. Because there were a number of times in this game when they saw that look and Brady took a shot to Gordon. And now I don't know if this is going to be a trend that continues or if this was just a game specific thing, which was whatever they saw on film. They thought that Gordon was going to win those matchups and he didn't. Adoree Jackson had a great game. So that's one thing to keep in mind. That's one that I'm

certainly going to be watching going forward. For example, as we just talked about, Tremaine Johnson has been getting beaten multiple times a game so far in 2018. And so I think that if they see that sort of matchup, chances are that the Patriots might have a similar sort of game plan where they say, look, if we get 22 on 10, we're going to take our shot. We're going to see if we can win those one-on-one matchups. We trust them to win those one-on-one matchups. And what's sort of interesting about that is that a lot of times an offense does have that kind of thing going in. Going into a game, for example.

They might think, look, this is a matchup we're going to win. We got a good feeling about this one. And so when we see it, we're going to try to take advantage of it. You know, so that's sort of one thing to keep in mind. You know, here's another thing. And when we had Jeff Raistin on, for example, to talk about this game, I mean, excuse me, the acquisition of Josh Gordon, one of the things that he stressed was, look, you're not getting the same guy in 2013 and 2018 that was there in 2013. And so there's that to consider. We were expecting a guy that was going to be able to get consistent vertical separation.

And he hasn't quite done that. Now, still an extremely talented wide receiver who can play a huge role for this team and has played a pretty big role so far. And he's earned himself into that Brady circle of trust, which is huge. But if you were expecting the guy that's going to just take the top off of defense,

play in and play out, which is a bit of a misnomer, I think, to begin with, maybe we had our expectations too high. That being said, I think he's in line to have a huge game against the Jets because, look, Tremaine Johnson has struggled. Manesh Mehta of the New York Daily News tweeted that Johnson has been, quote, profoundly disappointed in the people inside the organization. Another source told Manesh Mehta that they thought he'd be better. Other people told Michael David Smith, Pro Football Talk, that many league observers have believed that Daryl Roberts, who's playing on a minimum salary, has been more productive

than his, quote, richer teammate. And so that is something to watch maybe coming out of the by look they get Darrell what Robertson more playing time who knows maybe he sees some more time but as for Gordon specifically you know we talked about some micro some macro stuff let's look at that Titans game and again with the caveat that I think they were trying to really sort of feed him some touches they thought they were gonna get some advantageous looks for him. I think what we saw on that third and 13 play on New England's open and drive is what he can still do. This was a situation where they had Gordon, sort of that number two receiver, three receiver set. Tennessee shows cover one, but they rotate the cover two at the snap and they're asking sort of a linebacker to run with him on a vertical route.

And he can run by that player easily. And he does, and Brady drops in a very good throw to split that cover two look for a huge gain. You know, when you get Josh Gordon matched up against a linebacker in a Tampa two look, in this case, you know, the linebacker in question, excuse me, the linebacker in question on this case was Wesley Woodyard. Josh Gordon should outrun that player, and on this play, he did. And so that's an instance of Josh Gordon doing his job, Brady looking to him,

right read, right throw, perfect placement, great play. Now the very next play, they come right back to him. They go no huddle, so they're using tempo. Now you've got Gordon split out to the left, cover one look, bump and run, press coverage look from Adore Jackson. And this is exactly what I'm talking about. Brady immediately looks to him, and he expects Gordon to win, and he doesn't. Jackson does a great job with his jam. Gordon can't get off of it. They try to back shoulder, and he doesn't. Jackson does a great job with his jam. Gordon can't get off of it. They try to back shoulder, and it's incomplete.

And so I think those two plays are kind of the microcosm of where Josh Gordon is right now. Long, fast, athletic defenders like Adore Jackson might not be the matchups that he can still consistently win. He can win them from time to time, but maybe not down in and down out. And if your game plan is sort of predicated on him winning on those situations and he doesn't, it might pose a problem. Now let's not forget, look, he's been battling sort of a finger injury as well as the hamstring injury. And we saw that on third down on the same drive. After they threw to him on a quick screen for no gain, third and 10, get another cover cover one look get that radar type of package you don't know who's coming from where they do blitz they go tosser which is that double

slant route combination inside slant route outside slant route and gordon wins this time gordon wins on the route he beats the jam from adori jackson gets inside of him jackson can't even get a hand on him brady makes a perfect throw on the slant. Gordon just misses it, goes right between his hands. And now that might have to do with the injury more than anything. But here you see Gordon win on the route. Brady make a great throw, but it's dropped. And so I think it sort of comes down to, with Josh Gordon,

sort of a matter of consistency. You know, maybe he's not the dominant receiving threat that people think of, you know, because they flash back to 2013, like Jefferson told us. But he's still a player that can win most matchups. And certainly if you're going to get a matchup against a linebacker, you expect him to win in those situations.

But Adoree Jackson had a very good day against him, and he's been battling the hamstring and the finger injuries. And so, like everything else associated with this team right now, the bye week, hats off to Erica Prohl, who keeps reminding me about this, the bye week probably couldn't have come at a better time. Get the guys rest up, get Gordon's finger rest up, get the hamstring rest up, get Gronk back, get Shaq Mason back, which I think is going to be huge for this team. And get a chance to go up against the Jet Squad,

which I think they can be very successful against. That will do it for today's Tuesday show. Remember, we are back. We're going to do crossover on Wednesday. Take Thursday Thanksgiving Day Edition. Get some questions in at Mark Schofield on Twitter. Some Thanksgiving thoughts. Whatever you want to talk about.

I'm going to be here with you. Maybe you get the ride over the river and through the woods to Grandma's house. Maybe you're hosting and you need something to listen to while you're getting the turkey and stuff ready. Maybe it's just another day for you because you don't live in the U.S. I've got a lot of international listeners.

They're going to want a show on Thursday. So I'm here to deliver. So get some questions in. Until next time, everybody, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots.