Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots November 25, 2017 - Dolphins Gameday Edition

Episode Date: November 26, 2017

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Hello everybody, welcome into your game day edition of Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield here in the big chair. Getting the game day edition on a little bit late, holiday weekend and all that. But I got called out by some listeners of the show you know who you are some people wondering where's the game day edition i need the game day edition so better late than never right so we're going to get into our usual sort of game day fair my expectations for what to expect on sunday what i'm going to be looking for when both teams have the football. Also going to do a couple of things here at the outset.

I'm going to talk a little bit about the Week 12 slate of games just generally. Not going to spend any time on the Thanksgiving Day games. You know what happened there. I'm going to talk a little bit about some of the games that I'll be keeping an eye on on Sunday afternoon, Sunday evening, even into Monday night. Also, I'm going to give some shout-outs here at the beginning to some of the other shows on the

Locked On Network. We're trying to build something here over in the Locked On Network. If you're listening to the show, you probably know that there are some great shows out there as well. Some of the other people, some of the show, you probably know that there are some great shows out there as well. Some of the other people, some of the other

hosts for some of the other teams out there are doing great work. Some shows that I subscribe to, that I listen to, that I'd just go ahead and invite you to check out as well. Locked On Falcons with Aaron Freeman.

We had Aaron on for a crossover show leading up to that Patriots-Falcons game. Aaron does great work. Definitely check out his show, Locked on Falcons. Locked on Chiefs. We opened the season with a crossover show. Myself, Ryan Tracy, Chris Clark,

they've been doing that show for a while now. They do great work. I contribute to a weekly sort of predictions piece they have over there at LockedOnChiefs.com So definitely check out Locked On Chiefs. Big fan of what they're doing. Locked On Steelers with John Ledyard.

John does great work. John's all over the internet writing about football, contributor to FanRag, contributor to NDT Scouting. Gotten the chance to get to know John. Does some incredible work covering the Steelers as

well as the show that he co-hosts Locked On NFL Draft. Him and Trevor Sykema. John and Trevor covering the draft all year long. Draft season has really sort of begun for a lot of teams already, but John and Trevor do a tremendous job covering it all year long. You know, and as we get into the draft, obviously more and more people will be paying attention to it.

I'll be paying attention to it, of course. Clearly keeping an eye towards quarterbacks, but going to be looking at it through a Patriots set of glasses this draft season. And it begins with the Senior Bowl. Getting excited to make the arrangements to head down to Mobile for the third year in a row. Always a good time. Finally,

locked on Eagles. Michael J. Kist, Benjamin Solak, huge fans of their show. Huge friends of the locked on Patriots show, the two of them. They do good work over at Locked On Eagles, and who knows? Perhaps there's a Locked On Eagles, Locked On Patriots crossover show in everybody's future. One can only imagine the hijinks the three of us would get into. But check out their shows.

All of those shows, those are shows that I subscribe to, but there are other shows that you might not even be aware of. If you're listening to this show, there's a chance you're a Celtics fan. There's Locked On Celtics as well. Obviously, the win streak just got snapped. I don't get a chance to watch the Celtics

every single night living down in the D.C. area. I don't get all the games, but Locked On Celtics keeps me up to date with everything happening with the guys in green. John Corrales, J.K., and they do great work with that show. Definitely check out Locked On Celtics as well. So now we've given out some shout outs. Let's talk for just a minute or two about this week 12 slate because you know as somebody that is employed to watch quarterbacks to study quarterbacks to write about quarterbacks every

single week you know i spend a lot of time you know in the tuesday to sort of wednesday range looking ahead to the entire week slate of games sketching out my plan for how I'm going to watch all the games, what games I want to watch first. It gets me excited to look ahead to some of the matchups. Every Thursday I'm on Sportsnet 650 with John and Sat out in Vancouver, British Columbia. I do a weekly radio hit at 1 Eastern. They're always asking me during that hit,

what game are you most looking forward to? When I was on with them on Thanksgiving Day just a few days ago, when they asked me that question, outside of one game, this game between the Saints and the Rams, let's be honest, friends, it's not the best slate of games this week. I mean, in the 1 o'clock hour, obviously we'll all have our eyes on Miami, New England, okay? But you've got Browns, Bengals, Panthers, Jets, Titans, Colts, Bucks, Falcons, Bears,

Eagles, Bills, Chiefs. That's not the most inspiring 1 p.m. slate. Maybe that's a situation where you're going to have your fantasy app open more than anything. If there's a timeout on that New England-Miami game, you might just be checking to see how your fantasy teams are doing. Don't forget, draft.com. Use that promo code LONFL to sign up.

Things do get better in that sort of 4 p.m. slate. You've got Seahawks 49ers, Broncos Raiders, Jags Cardinals. Again, not a lot of inspiring football to be played there, but you do have that Saints-Rams game. That's a game that has a ton of playoff implications to it. Two division-leading teams. Rams lost last week to Minnesota. Let's see if they can bounce back.

Saints had that comeback win against Washington where they had Drew Brees needing to be Drew Brees again. Very interested to watch that game. But then the two primetime games, Packers-Steelers. Can the Packers steal

one on the road with Brent Hundley? I don't really think so. And then Texans-Ravens, a game that Okay, so maybe the Ravens are sort of rounded into I don't really think so. And then Texans-Ravens, a game that... Okay, so maybe the Ravens are sort of rounded into some form here down the stretch. Maybe they can get into the playoffs as the 5 or the 6 teams. And then you'll hear all the, oh, here come the Ravens. Oh, the team nobody wants to play.

Oh, come on with that. I mean, if you look at this team right now, if you look at that Ravens offense right now, it's not really the best offense in the league by any stretch of the imagination. And Joe Flacco himself is having close, he's on pace for a historically bad season at the quarterback position. His ANY, adjusted net yards per attempt,

statistics I've talked about a ton on this show, 3.71. He's 33rd out of qualifying starters in the National Football League this year. Mike Glennon, who is benched, has an ANY of 4.12 Trevor Simeon who was benched has an ANY of 4.56 Brian Hoyer who was benched and then traded or released after a trade couldn't be worked out with New England an ANY of 4.78 released after a trade couldn't be worked out with New England. An ANY of 4.78.

Jay Cutler, who has been in and out of the lineup, a better ANY. Eli Manning, who is having a very bad season, 5.26. Only Brett Hundley and Deshaun Kaiser have been worse. So let's just try to get out ahead of that eventual eventual ooh, Baltimore, the team nobody wants to play. Come on. But anyway, not the most inspiring slate of games. Obviously, we'll be watching

again that Miami-New England game. You do have that Saints-Rams game, but other than that, not really sort of the best weekend of football. But the Thanksgiving Day games were entertaining, so at least there was that. That's been kind of a quick look at this Week 12 slate. Up next, we're going to dive into what I'm watching for on Sunday, or today, as the case may be. You might be listening on game

day. That's next here on Locked on Patriots with me, Mark Schofield. Okay, let's dive into this game a little bit. I'm not going to spend a ton of time on it because, look, Patriots, they're on a winning streak. Dolphins, they're on a winning streak. The Dolphins, they're on a losing streak. You know, all signs really point to New England being able to take care of business here, right? I'll have the prediction later.

But big number. Patriots, last time I checked, given 17. It's a home game for them. Given 17, it's a home game for them. Given 17, that's a big number. Now, what am I sort of looking for? What will I be watching?

I don't want to say scammy, but the things that the Patriots will need to take care of in this game. When the Dolphins have the ball, look, Jay Cutler not getting the start. It's going to be Matt Moore. The main thing that sort of gives me pause

about this Dolphins offense is this. The Patriots defenders will need to tackle. Period. Full stop. I've had my, shall we say, differences with how Adam Gase is approaching the offensive schematic structure of the Miami Dolphins this season. Because I think this is a downfield passing attack trapped in a sort of West Coast offensive scheme. You look at some of their receivers.

You look at Jarvis Landy, who I think is more effective sort of in a downfield passing game. You look at Parker, receiver out of Louisville, a few years out of Louisville. Again, more of a downfield guy. Especially when they had Jay Cutler in the lineup, more of a downfield guy. But Adam Gase's offensive philosophy is yardage after the catch.

They design so many concepts, whether it's tunnel screens, whether it's those shallow crossers, whether it's the mesh concept, where they want to get the ball into receivers' hands quickly, near the line of scrimmage, and rely on yardage after the catch. So we're going to see Matt Moore get the ball out of his hands quickly. But they're going to be looking for those yak plays. Patriots defenders are going to need to tackle. They might need to tackle in space. They might need to fight through blocks on those tunnel screens, those receiver screens, those quick smoke screens. So if they miss those tackles, if they miss those opportunities in the open field,

and Miami can start turning those 2-yard, 3-yard, 5-yard throws into 10, 15, 20-yard gains, that could be a problem. So the first thing that New England's going to have to do when Miami has the ball, they're going to need to tackle. They're going to need to tackle. They're going to need to stop those plays. And if they do that, the rest of what Miami can do doesn't really scare you.

I mean, you're looking at it in terms of a run game. Miami Dolphins, 28th in the league, averaging only 80 yards per game on the ground. You look at a passing offense. Miami, a middle-of-the-pack, at-best an offense. Miami, a middle of the pack at best passing offense. Only averaging 211 yards per game through the air.

We talked about A&Y a little bit. Miami 28th as a team in A&Y between Cutler and Matt Moore. So they're not going to really put up big yardage. They haven't done it yet. The only sort of potential problem is if you let them have success

with what they do. If they can turn those quick throws into big gains, that could be a problem. So the Patriots defenders are going to need to tackle. The run game doesn't really scare me. The passing game doesn't scare me in the sense that having studied it to this point, week in and week out, it seems to be a downfield offense trapped in a West Coast body. And there's this sort of functional disconnect

between those two schools of thought. That until they break out of what they're doing and look to get more downfield, they're going to struggle. They've tried to at times, but it just hasn't worked. I don't expect it to break out under Matt Moore. So I expect they'll continue with this sort of short, quick pass and attack. Looking for those yak plays. Tackle, flow to the ball, tackle, flow to the ball, get guys to the ground, they should be fine.

Now when New England has the ball, again, not a lot to really worry about, sort of looking at this matchup before the game kicks off. I mean, you're talking about a pass defense that is, again, middle of the pack. They're 17th in the league right now in terms of passing yards given up per game. They're giving up 229.3 yards per game. New England's still the worst pass defense in the league, at least in that statistic. New England's still giving up 282 yards per game. New England's still the worst pass defense in the league, at least in that statistic. New England's still giving up 282 yards per game,

but that number is starting to come down a little bit. We talk about A&Y and what that number means in terms of what defenses have given up. Dolphins, second worst in the league. They've given up an A&Y to opposing quarterbacks of 7.4 per game. Actually, check that. That's on the season. But it's still second worst in the NFL.

In terms of TD percentage, percentage of touchdowns thrown when attempted to pass, Dolphins sixth worst in the league, 5.6. Then I've talked about football outsiders. They're DVOA, Defense Adjusted Value Over Average. They are the 31st ranked defense, total defense, in DVOA. Only Oakland is worse.

The 31st pass defense. Only Oakland is worse. And in terms of DVOA versus types of receivers, Miami, 29th against team's number one receivers. 29th against number two receivers. Dead last in the league versus other wide receivers, slot receivers, types like that. 25th in the league against tight ends. This is a bad defense.

Even though they've got some talent on that side of the ball, Kiko Alonso, Ndamukong Su, guys that are talented, they just haven't put it together. New England will still have to play a clean game. They'll have to be smart with the football, don't make mistakes, don't turn the ball over, protect Tom Brady, things we talk about week in and week out. But they should be able to handle this defense. They should be able to put points on the board.

I know that there might be concerns about Brady and his Achilles, Brady and Ndamukong Su and what Su might do. Kiko Alonso had that hit against Joe Flacco a few weeks back. They've protected Tom Brady really well over the past five or six weeks or so. And I'd expect that to continue. So again, look, on paper, looking at this team, both from a film perspective and with the study

and I've done of them, as well as the numbers, the 17-point spread seems to make sense. Will they cover it? I'll dive into that next as we close out this week's game day edition of Locked on Patriots. That's next, here with me, Mark Schofield. All right, so let's look at this for one split second here. And again, if you do decide to place perhaps a friendly wage on it,

check out our good friends over at mybookie.ag. Use promo code LOCKEDON when you sign up. And again, 17-point spread. I'm sorry. I think New England covers it. I do. And I know it's a big number. The weather conditions might be dicey. Looking at the forecast for Foxborough on Sunday, precipitation won't be an issue. Mostly sunny. But you're going to get winds, 15, 16 mile an hour wins

and as far as throwing the football for me it was toughest in the rain because I had small hands when we get into draft season you hear people talking about hand size 9-9.5 inches is kind of what

you're looking for I don't know if I've ever sort of hit that 9 inch mark and nine, nine and a half inches is kind of what you're looking for. I don't know if I've ever sort of hit that nine inch mark. Going to do that hand stretching like Brandon Allen a few years ago. So I had small hands. It was tough to grip the football, but that's not an issue for guys in the NFL. What can be an issue is wind

because it's sort of tough to gauge, particularly on downfield throws like the Patriots have incorporated more of this year because you don't know when that gust is going to come and it's sometimes tough to sort of gauge how much touch, how much depth to put on a ball. How deep should you put it out there? Are you going to overthrow the guy?

Are you throwing with the wind, into the wind? So that's something to consider, but I still think the New England Patriots cover in this game. I do. And I think in terms of the over-under, if you're looking at that, it's 48.5. That's a tough one. But I'll go over here just because I think

the Patriots will put up some points. Dolphins get some stuff late. But that's kind of where I look at this game. This game doesn't worry me. There are games up ahead that will worry me. Obviously that Steelers game. That's going to be one to

worry about. Because that could pretty much decide the number one overall seed in the afc you know that trip down to miami before that could that be a trap game could new england get caught looking ahead you'd think not given bill belichick and how he approaches this team, but they might. So those two games sort of jump out at me. But this is a favorable schedule down the stretch overall. You get Miami twice. You get the Bills twice.

You get the Jets again. It's just that one game against Pittsburgh that really stands out on the road with perhaps the trap game in front of it. So those two games worry me. This game doesn't worry me so much. So of course, what's going to happen? Who knows? Maybe something horrible happens. But sitting here right now, drinking a

seltzer water, firing off some takes on a Saturday night, this game doesn't worry me. I think New England covers. I think we hit that over. And I think we roll into Buffalo week thinking, all right, let's make a run at that number one overall seed. Now, I think that's where we're looking.

For a while early in the season, I didn't think we'd be talking about it like that. You know, you lose to Kansas City. You have that loss to Carolina. This team seems to be rounding into form. And I've said that a lot, but it seems to be coming true. We'll get a much better view of it over the next couple of weeks, but things are looking pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty good.

But I'll be back in a few hours basically because this game gets done at 1. I'll be watching it live with all of you. Getting my notes ready and as soon as the game's over, I'll try to hop on the mic and get you your instant analysis show. Let's just close

on this and obviously Thanksgiving has just come to a close. I hope you all enjoyed the Thanksgiving edition that I did of Locked On Patriots. I hope you and your families have had a wonderful, safe and happy Thanksgiving holiday break.

I hope wherever you're listening to me from you had a chance to put the feet up. Maybe watch some football, some good college games today. Apple Cup actually going on as we speak. Just a few inches from my head when I'm recording. But I hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving. We're now into the holiday season. We'll be doing some holiday stuff here as we get into December.

And I just want to close with a sort of message of thanks on my behalf to all of you who have listened to the show, who have shared the show, who have left reviews on iTunes. You can go leave more. Go leave another one. But as I've said multiple times, this is a crowded Patriots marketplace. I spend more time on Twitter than I should. times. This is a crowded Patriots marketplace. I sort of

spend more time on Twitter than I should. And I look around and I see other teams, other fan bases, they may have one or two podcasts. Locked On might even be the only game in town sometimes. But there are dozens, if not more, of shows

dedicated to the New England Patriots. That's how big this fan base is. It's an international fan base. I see it every day when I see that people are downloading this show from Sweden, from Brazil, from France. The trust that you have all put into me

to let me into your homes to talk about this show, it means the world to me. Quick shout out to at Patriots France. An account in France dedicated to New England Patriots. I know they're probably listening. They're fans of the show. Thank you for your support. Thank you to all of you.ots. I know they're probably listening. They're fans of the show. Thank you for your support. Thank you to all of you.

Seriously, I mean this. For listening, for sharing the tweets, for sharing the show, for visiting LockedOnPatriots.com. I just took this show over a couple of days before the season started, basically. I'm still figuring out as I go. And just thank you

to all of you for sticking along with me, sticking along for the ride. Hopefully it's another ride deep into January and February. But I'll be here every step of the way through the playoffs, through the rest of the regular season, through the draft, into next season because I love doing this show.

People sometimes ask me, isn't it a grind to do five shows a week? No. No, this is fun. This is fun. I get to talk to great guests like Adam Kirchhen, like Ted Wynn, Matt Waldman, Dan Hattman. I get to talk to all of you about the Patriots five

days a week. It's just a blast. My Thanksgiving message is just thank you to all of the listeners for giving the show a shot, for sticking with it. I really do appreciate each and every one of you and I do mean that. It's just been a joy to do this show all the time

and thank you for listening. Thank you for welcoming me into your homes five days a week. You can still tell a friend or two or ten. And we'll be doing some fun stuff, some promos and stuff. I've got some stuff in mind going forward. But again, thank you so much for all the attention and the sharing and the shot that you've given me. And I hope I've lived up to that because I know that there are only so many hours of the day.

And I started the show listing off some great shows. I can't listen to them all each day. I know you all probably have 15, 20 podcasts that you subscribe to. Sometimes it's even hard to even hit that subscribe button. You're like, oh my gosh, one more podcast. I don't have time to listen to podcasts. But however you do it,

whether you're in the car, on the train, on the treadmill, lifting weights, whatever, however you do it, I appreciate each and every listen, each and every listener. And I know, again, it's a crowded market. You have lots of options. So just thank you so much. I do appreciate it. I do mean that.

That's been your game day edition of Locked on Patriots. A true game day edition. I'll be back in a few hours breaking down this game between the Dolphins and the Patriots. Until then, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield and Locked on Patriots. you