Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots October 12, 2018 - Gameday Edition

Episode Date: October 12, 2018

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Hey there everybody, Mark Schofield here for your Friday game day edition of Locked On Patriots. We're going to get into the Chiefs, the Pats, what I'm going to be watching for, what I'm expecting and hoping to see on Sunday night as the Patriots look to reestablish themselves as the team to beat in the AFC. Before we dive into a loaded show, a reminder to follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. Check out the work at places like InsideThePylon.com, The Score, Pro Football Weekly, Matt Waldwin's Rookie Scouting Portfolio, Big Blue Blue View Part of the SB Nation family of websites As I've said

If there's an outlet covering football Chances are I'm doing some work for them Let's get into it now Let's get into this Chiefs Patriots tilt That we're all looking forward to on Sunday Perhaps nobody looking forward to it more Than our own Bill Belichick Head coach of the New England Patriots

And he had some comments about the Kansas City Chiefs at his press conference the other day. He spoke extremely highly of them, as you might expect. Belichick telling reporters about this Chiefs offense. That's where we're going to start, with the Chiefs on the offensive side of the ball. They're all dangerous, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick told reporters. You can't stop one guy in this offense. They've got too many guys. The quarterback is a problem.

The backs are a problem. The tight ends are a problem. The receivers are a problem. They're all a problem. Speaking about Patrick Mahomes, the rookie phenom quarterback, not rookie, second-year quarterback. I feel like he's a rookie because he only had one start last year. Mahomes, of whom Belichick said he can throw the ball out of the stadium. About Tyreek Hill,

he's worried about him. As he said, he's a problem. If you play off on him, you give him too much space. Play up on him, he gets behind you. He's a hard guy to defend. The quarterback can throw it deep. He stretches the whole field. And I want to start sort of with the speed issue because the speed element is going to be something that the Patriots are going to need to get a handle of early and often in this game because these receivers are fast. Watkins, Hill, Conley, they're quick. Even Kelsey for a tight end can move.

And this is a problem for teams to figure out how to defend because it's not something you can easily replicate in practice. Yes, the Patriots have some talented and athletic guys on their practice squad, but if they had a Tyree Kill type on their practice squad, he wouldn't be on their practice squad. He'd be lining up with them. And yeah, you can maybe take a couple of reps and steal a guy like Gordon for a few minutes on practice squad and get him to go up against, you know, the defense.

But Gordon's got to get ready for what he needs to do. And so the Patriots have been struggling in practice to sort of find a way to mimic this speed. And they've gone to, and this is something Christopher Price pointed out for Boston Sports Journal, they've been using practice squad guys and giving them a five-yard head start, letting them start basically downfield when they run plays to give the defensive backs and the secondary a feel for just how quick these guys are going to be. Teddy Bruschi on Twitter pointed out that this is something that Belichick has done before. He did it with the Rams, did it a couple times when they were facing the Colts. If you're going to be going up against a really quick, fast offense, it's hard to replicate that speed.

Sometimes you need to find ways to sort of cheat and create that element. Schematically, what these guys do, well, it's air raid on steroids. That's the best way to, I mean, West Coast on steroids. That's the best way to sort of describe it. A lot of the West Coast elements are there, slant flat, things like that. Andy Reid is a West Coast offensive mind at heart. That's where his philosophy lies. But they've incorporated a lot more of the air raid elements into it. That's what Mahomes was running during his days at Texas Tech. And it shouldn't be a surprise to us that Andy Reid is doing that with a quarterback. He did it over the past couple of years with Alex Smith. Alex Smith, what do you

like to run? Stuff you like to run at Utah when you were under Urban Meyer? All right, let's get that into the playbook. Comfortable quarterbacks are successful quarterbacks. Something I've said a ton. We talk about helping quarterbacks all the time on this show. It should be no surprise that they're using some air raid stuff. They will use a ton of movement and motion pre-snap. There was a play a couple of weeks ago where they, I believe it was their game against the 49ers. They sent, I think, three or even four guys sort of in shift and motion pre-snap. They do some crazy things offensively.

They will show you three different looks and throw a fullback screen. They'll use their fullback out of the backfield. They'll align him as a wing and use him on vertical routes, on wheel routes. Obviously with Hill, with Kelsey, with Conley, with Watkins, they will stretch the field. They will go four verticals on you.

They will go four verticals out of a three by one and use that tight end Kelsey on that bending route coming from the three-man formation side to the other side to the weak side. So he's basically running the deep over route. They will do a lot of stuff in the vertical passing game. They love to get Kareem Hunt, Kelsey, and Tyreek Hill on the same side of the formation and run them as the three-by-one.

They've done this where they've got Kelsey and Hill in sort of a win. Kelsey runs the bender. Hill releases vertically. Hunt releases to the outside. Then if you're Deron Harmon or Devin McCourty on that side of the field and you see those three guys releasing vertically towards you, you're probably reevaluating some career choices. That's a tough spot to be in as a safety. You can try to play bland coverages against them.

Cover one, cover three, cover two, cover four. The problem is those coverages all have weak spots and they have guys that can exploit them. They love Kelsey in the middle of the field with middle of the field open looks. Cover two, cover four. We've got the two safeties deep. Kelsey can split that. You go cover three. Well, they can do the cover three beater types. They can run Hill and Kelsey up seams. You go cover one. You want to press Tyreek Hill? Okay, good luck with that. You better hope your corner can play press with a guy that's got world-class speed. And so these are the problems facing the New England Patriots right now. How do I expect them to combat them?

What am I looking for? I'm looking for the number three, and I've been talking about this this week. I've been writing about this for places like the score at elsewhere. I think we saw the roadmap put into place last week against the Colts that they expect to try to use to slow down this offense this week. And it's that 3-2-6 defense. And I went back, looked at some games, looked at the Lions game, that Dolphins game, and the Colts game again. On passing attempts, Matt Stafford had three passing attempts, just three, against the Patriots with a 3-2-6 defense. So only three times did he throw the ball against a 3-2-6.

Ryan Tannehill, just twice. You want to know how many times Andrew Luck attempted a pass against New England last Thursday night when the Patriots were in a 3-2-6? 36 times. That's a huge jump in usage. And I talked in yesterday's show about that Super Bowl XXV game plan. About the idea that

you take the pass out of it. You let them run. What has Bill Belichick always done? Find what you do best You take the pass out of it. You let them run. What has Bill Belichick always done? Find what you do best and stop it. Right now, what the Chiefs do best is throw the ball with Patrick Mahomes. So you stop it. What do you do? You go 3-2-6.

Six defensive backs on almost every single play. You try to take away throwing lanes. You'll play some matchup coverage. You might do some matchup cover four where you've got somebody on hill with a soft cover four behind it. You know, pattern match. You know, combo coverages. Give them some different looks.

All the while, you've got six defensive backs on the field, six guys that are athletic enough. And you dare Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid to stick to the run, you dare them to run slow, methodical drives down the field, you dare them to circulate the ball down the field. If they come into Foxborough and they rip off a bunch of 15, 16, 17 play drives to beat you, okay, you tip your hat to them and you congratulate them on a job well done. But what they do best right now is throw the ball. And they can throw it deep.

They can stretch you vertically down the field. If you give them easy throws, if you put yourself in a situation as a defense where you're susceptible to getting beaten deep, such as relying on playing cover one press like the Patriots love to do, then you don't congratulate them. You wonder what could have been differently. Now, I've been wrong on sort of game planning from a Patriots defensive perspective before I was a little bit wrong in the lead up to Super Bowl 52 it won't be the if I'm wrong this week

it won't be the last time it won't be the first time it's tough to get into Belichick's head but if it were me that's what I would be doing and we saw that pan out to some extent with luck. You make them make some throws. You make them work the ball downfield. And if they do it, great. Good for them. But this gives you the best chance to win. And with Patrick Shun and his versatility to still stop the run as a pseudo linebacker,

if they do decide to run, you've still got the ability to stop them. And so that's what I'm watching for when the Chiefs are on offense on Sunday night. Up next, we're going to talk about what to expect when the Chiefs are on defense. Got some play designs that I think the Patriots will be using. But first, I want to remind everybody about our great friends over at Low-KI. You need a little extra swag for game day low ki has got your back with their brand new game day collection look we're closing out you know world mental health awareness week and i talked about that a little bit yesterday one of the things i love about these low ki bracelets is the message behind them they hold water from mount everest the highest point on earth and mud from the dead sea the

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Up next, my thoughts on when the Patriots have the football on this game day edition of Locked on Patriots. Mark Schofield back with you now on this Friday game day edition of Locked on Patriots. And we're going to talk now about what I'm looking for, what I'm expecting when the Patriots have the ball on Sunday night. And obviously, at least until last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, this Chiefs defense was being looked at as perhaps the weak link of this team. They were giving up points. They were giving up yardage. It seems like the Chiefs sort of had to be in a situation where Mahomes and company would have to outscore

teams. You know, they couldn't just rely on their defense, you know, to get things done, you know, to give them some short fields and things like that. And even though, yeah, they took a step forward last week against Jacksonville, you know, this is still a defense that is struggling at times. I mean, you look at counting statistics, for example. Including last week, Chiefs are giving up 343 yards per game through the air. Now, part of that is, yes, they've been scoring a lot, so teams are playing catch-up against them. You could look at some other stuff such as quarterback rating that they've been given out and opposing passers against the chiefs

surprisingly haven't just an 88.3 rating against them now you know part of that is due of course to you know the weaklet portals had you can look at expected points contributed by passing defense while there the chiefs are one of the league's worst teams. Their Chiefs pass defense. Minus 38.78 expected points contributed. They're giving up an adjusted net yards per attempt

of looking for that here. Where'd that go? Just disappeared. Oh, 6.5, which is pretty average for opposing passers. Again, part of that influenced by Blake Bortles and the week he had last week. Now, in terms of their defense against the run, well, that's another interesting story. Chiefs defense giving up over 118 yards per game against the run.

Their run defense, expected points contributed, minus 30.13. So numbers-wise, this is a defense that has been struggling. Let's just put it that way. Now, when you sort of look at what they do in the secondary, they're more of a zone team. And they've been traditionally a single high, cover one, cover three type team. This year, it's started to even out a little bit. You know, they've got, if you look at the numbers, 122 passing attempts against them came versus zone. Excuse me, double check that.

Rechecking my math there. 112 passing attempts came versus zone. 93 were some variation of man. And so it's a bit more of a split, but that's kind of what they're doing defensively. What they like to do, cover one, cover three, cover four, those are the things that they run.

What can work against them? Running backs. I'm going to tell you right now in our Sunday tailgate edition, our Sunday morning tailgate show, James White will be one of your DFS plays. Here's why. You want some numbers on the Chiefs against running backs? Running backs have 89 rushing attempts for 488 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Kansas Chiefs. That's pretty good. Running backs have been targeted 49 times in the past game for 39 receptions, 454 yards, and 3 touchdowns.

Those 3 touchdowns tied for worst in the league. They are giving up 31.9 points per game on FanDuel to the running back position. That is second worst in the league. So, James White. Get him isolated on those linebackers against underneath coverage. That's job one for Josh McDaniels and company. They need to get James White involved in the pass game. They need to get him involved as a target. A route combination that worked for teams against them. San Francisco did this. It's something that I love. I want to see some two-by-two formations with White or

whoever the running back is shaded towards Gronkowski, shaded towards the tight end, and I want to see them go seam Texas route as a combination that the 49ers for example used against them with Matt Breida and that seam route from Gronkowski you know you'll get the linebacker to get depth a little bit if it's sort of a zone look and then you get that Texas route to come underneath him from the running back which is that route that where you angle to the outside and then cut back over the middle kind of like on a slant quick aside i've been playing a lot of madden 19 i i usually i swore off madden i got into it to kind of get me into the fall with all the great games that i've been talking about man i just throw texas routes all day long but that's an aside that sort of seam texas route

look from gronk and white i think that has to be part of their game plan. Other teams used it. And here's the reason. If you've got a single high free safety in the middle of the field, you've got a route on the outside, say from Gordon, also running a vertical route or a comeback route to occupy that corner, that seam route is a cover three beater. Whenever we talked about beating cover three,

one of the things we came to was seam routes from Gronk. Now you pair that with that texas route from the running back to get white working against these linebackers that sometimes get lost in coverage lost in space there you go you know that's a perfect combination a perfect route combination another thing when it comes to coverage while they've traditionally been a cover one cover three team and i expect them to do a lot of that they play more cover two than most teams they play a pretty decent amount of cover two what do you do against cover two you attack those safeties right get gronk on some posts get gronk on some quick band eight routes you know to attack those safeties have them collapse middle of the

field then you've got your stuff on the outside, whether it's comeback routes, which are kind of tough to get if you get a true cover too hard corner. But you want to attack that turkey hole, right? That turkey hole behind the corner between the safety on the deep half of the field and that sideline area, that's the area of the field you want to attack. Corner routes, flat seven smash, which we were talking about last week. Remember all the plays we talked about, the designs we talked about against the calls that flat seven smash you get white the running back release into the flat hold that corner gronk or somebody on that corner out to attack that turkey hole keep that corner down get that safety sort of having to rotate over towards the

sideline and get that throw in there before the safety gets there if you want a prime example of attacking cover to look at the play where drew Brees set the passing record. You get that fake screen to Kamara. It holds Josh Norman down near the line of scrimmage. You get the vertical release. Throw it before the safety rotates over. Easy throw, easy catch, and hopefully you can make a move on that safety before he gets there because if you do, you could have six. That's something to watch. But the running back's got to be involved in this game. White has to be involved out of the backfield.

Michelle at times as well. These linebackers are a weakness. We talked about it with the guys over at Locked On Chiefs. Ryan and Chris, who do a great job, follow them at Locked On Chiefs. The running back's James White. This is a James White game. So that's what I'm looking for when the Patriots have the football. Attack the linebackers with the running backs. You can do some stuff with the seams.

You know, another route combination. That sort of dagger concept where you get Gordon on the outside running the deep dig. Again, Gronk up the seam. Make them pick their poison. Those are some routes I expect to be a huge part of the game. And that's something you could run against cover two as well because that seam route is going to take that safety.

It's going to make that safety get depth. Then you bring that dig route in front of that safety where he vacated behind the linebackers. That's going to be perfect as well. Those are some things I'm looking for when the Patriots have the ball. Up next, prediction as well as some thoughts on what could be a very interesting, perhaps the most interesting slate of college games we've seen. And if you are thinking about perhaps, perhaps, perhaps, now that you've heard sort of me wind you all up and you're going

to hear a prediction in a minute. If you're thinking about maybe, you know, trying to make some money on the games this weekend, look, The most important thing you can remember is not what I've told you, but to go to MyBookie. Trust me, guys and girls, they are your best bet this season. I would only recommend a service to my listeners that's good to me, and that's why I'm urging you, urging you, imploring you, pleading with you. Go to MyBookie. You win, they pay. They have in-game, live betting, over-unders on fantasy points scored for you fantasy guys and girls out there, and the most rewarding player perks in the business.

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matched 100% in free play. But if you can wait till after 7 p.m. Eastern, you get an extra $25 free by using promo code LOCKEDON25. It's up to you guys and girls, but I'd wait until after dinner and take the extra money. My bookie, you play, you win, you get paid. Mark Schofield back with you now to close out this game day edition of Locked on Patriots and quickly first score prediction. 34-31 New England. I think they're going to be point scored somewhat in bunches, but I do

think the Patriots come out on top. You know, if you listen to the crossover show, you probably knew that's where I was going with this, but hey, that's how I feel. Obviously that would mean that the Chiefs cover because last I saw was Pat's minus three and a half. So make decisions wisely, friends.

That's all I'm going to say. Let's talk briefly. Get you ready for what we're going to be talking about on our Sunday morning tailgate show. Obviously, DFS stuff, last minute news and notes, as well as recap of college football action. There are some interesting college games this weekend. There are some very interesting college games.

Georgia LSU has won. Obviously, LSU coming off a loss. You know, they lose that tough one to Florida last week. That drops them to number 13 in the polls. But, you know, they get a shot for some redemption here. Home game at, you know, a home game against Georgia. Georgia number two team in the nation coming to town. That's going to be a fascinating game to watch.

Also, that 3-30 slate is interesting. I'm going to be giving the thumb a workout in that one because on CBS, you've got that Georgia-LSU game. ABC, you've got Washington at Oregon. Jake Brown and Justin Herbert, that's going to be a fun game to watch. Obviously, Oregon, they lose that game to Stanford, but they get a chance to make some noise in the Pac-12

with a win at home against the Huskies coming to town. You also get Michigan State at Penn State. Michigan State trying to piece it back together. Really, look, Mark D'Antoni is on the hot seat, or at least the seat's getting a little bit warm. That's a team I'm excited to watch here in the Maryland area. I'm going to go see them, Michigan State, when they come to town to play.

The Maryland Terrapins. Brian the wearkeep. Been trying to study him. He was a guy that caught some buzz. Falling off a little bit. You know, six touchdown passes to his name. As we get into the evening slate. Wisconsin-Michigan.

You know, Big Ten game. Both teams unbeaten in the Big Ten. You know, this is a game where, you know, it's going to be guys like me that study quarterbacks and the passing game, you know, it's probably not going to be the most enjoyable game to tune in to watch. But obviously, look, you know, Wisconsin, first place in the Big Ten West. Michigan, they need a win to keep pace with Ohio State in the Big Ten East. So that's going to be a fascinating game to watch. As we get into some of the other games, we're going to take a wide berth.

I do want to give a shout-out, obviously, to my alma mater, Wesleyan. They're 2-2 right now. Guys are going to get it back on track this weekend, hoping for a win for Wesleyan this weekend. But let's get back to the big slate. Let's get back to the main overall schedule. A player that I want to see sort of rebound is Brett Rippin. Brett Rippin is starting to catch some buzz.

Guys have been listening to me, it seems. Guys have been listening to others that have been talking about Brett Rippin, for example, and it might be have been listening to others that have been talking about Brett Rippon, for example. And it might be time for people to pay attention. Now, they're coming off an egg. They struggled last week. They lose to San Diego State.

Not the best performance from Brett Rippon. They lose 19-13 in that game. Rippon 21-41 for 170, but two interceptions. So I want to see how they bounce back. I want to see how they bounce back. They got a game at Nevada late night on CBS Sports.

I'm probably going to keep my eyes on that one. But some other college games that I'm going to be watching sort of from a you know quarterback evaluation standpoint ryan finley you know he's a player that you know people have been talking about somewhat he gets a bye this week we don't get to watch him so that stinks wasn't just kind of hoping to see him you know we're also gonna get will greer ohio state i mean you should be Iowa State. That's a road game in Ames. Iowa State's defense, they're still giving up points and stuff, but I was listening to my boy Benjamin Solak talking with Petty Page yesterday,

the two of them over the draft network doing a live Instagram show, and Ben was right. This is an important game for Greer because he has a chance here to go up against a defense which has done some nice things. When you look at their defense, they've done some decent things this year. They're going to try to take away some of the easier throws.

They're going to make life tough for Greer, so that's going to be a fascinating game to watch. I'm going to be keeping an eye on that one as well. Obviously, I already talked about ripping kicking it down a level to the FCS level. You guys know I love sort of talking about the FCS quarterbacks. Going to be some interesting stuff there to watch. Easton Stick, studied him a little bit last week.

And I will say, when it comes to Easton Stick, I looked at him as sort of a Logan Woodside-type clone. And while he's had some success so far this year, it seems like I want to see a little bit more from him. And so Easton Stick, a player to watch. North Dakota State, they're making a trip to Western Illinois, a team that's 2-3. So you're hoping to see some improvement there from Easton Stick.

So that's another game I'll be watching. But I'll be breaking down as much college football as I can, as you guys can stomach, on the Sunday morning tailgate show. I will be back Sunday. Until then, have a fantastic Friday and Saturday, everybody. Keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots. and logged on patrons.