Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots - October 17, 2019; Baxter’s Back to Talk Pats

Episode Date: October 17, 2019

Joining host Mike D’Abate on this episode of Locked On Patriots is Russell S. Baxter of ProFootballGuru and PFG Vibe. The pair discuss the Patriots performance thus far in 2019, their biggest competition in the AFC, and take a look at their Monday Night matchup with the New York Jets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hello to all you Foxborough faithful, and welcome to your short work week Thursday episode of Locked on Patriots, your daily home for news, notes, analysis, and the occasional opinion on your six-time Super Bowl champions, the New England Patriots. This episode is brought to you in part by Peloton. Peloton is offering a limited time offer, get $100 off accessories when you purchase the Peloton bike, and get a great cardio workout at home. Go to OnePeloton.com and use promo code LOCKED

to get started. I'm Mike DeBate and I am your host of Locked On Patriots, as always part of the Locked On Podcast Network. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter at MDABATEFPC and be sure to follow Locked On Patriots on Twitter as well,

at L-O underscore Patriots. There's a great show on tap for you today. Russell S. Baxter of Pro Football Guru is going to be joining me shortly. Russell is a friend of the program. We had him on during preseason. And he always takes a balanced and level-headed approach to sports media. And today we're going to get his impressions on the Patriots' performance so far, his thoughts on the Patriots' divisional showdown with the New York Jets on Monday night,

but most of all, Russell will be providing a much-needed voice of reason when it comes to the Patriots' record, and whether or not their 6-0 record is more indicative of the strength of their schedule as opposed to the strength of their backs. And I'm always amazed, folks, at how an undefeated team through six games can be considered a poor team. And listen, we all know the national hot take machines. We know what they're saying. And most importantly, folks, we know why they're saying it.

So I'll just leave the hot takes aside for now. But so many are willing to discount the Patriots based on their level of competition. And to me, that's a gross disservice to this team that is putting up historic numbers on defense, has been amazing with special teams coverage, and is thoroughly beating their opponents. If you want to call these opponents lesser competition, okay, maybe. But the Patriots are not squeaking by these teams. These are sound beatings of NFL teams, folks.

And in my opinion, the Patriots deserve credit for playing as well as they have in all three phases, including the offense. I know a lot of people have liked to hop on this offense, but when you look at the pieces that they've been missing and a lot of turnover and even some of the up evil that they've gone through in the first couple of weeks of the season, they're still putting up numbers, they're still moving the ball, and they're still getting into the end zone when they need to. Now, will the Patriots be facing more formidable opponents? Absolutely.

Kansas City, Houston, Dallas, Philly, Baltimore, they're all still to come on the Pats schedule. And they're going to be formidable games and difficult games to win. And facing that level of competition, as opposed to what they faced in the first six weeks of the season, may mean that the Patriots do not remain undefeated throughout that stretch. But make no mistake about it, they're still going to be among the top teams in this conference and among the top teams in the NFL when all is said and done in 2019. And it's not because of luck. It's not because of the division in which they play, which, oh, by the way, for those that like to call the division the AFC least,

the Patriots are one of three teams playing very good football in that division right now. The Pats, obviously, the Buffalo Bills, and I do include the Patriots' Monday night football opponent this week, the New York Jets. Do not pay attention to that 1-4 record, folks. This is a different Jets team. They do have abilities to make plays on offense and on defense as well, and they'll be a formidable opponent for the Patriots on Monday night. So for those of you that want to use the argument that the division is the reason for the Patriots' strength, I would be looking to change that narrative

because the AFC East right now is a bit more formidable than some of the other divisions out in football without question. But all that aside, the Patriots' success is predicated really on one major tenet, and that is the fact that they find ways to win. No matter the situation, no matter the circumstance, they do find a way to win, and that is such a staple of this team. That's not going to change as long as Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are in New England. They may struggle, but they persevere. And some of you might not know that from the narrative that is bandied about by so many in the sports media landscape when it comes to this team. Now, coverage on a local

level is generally even keeled, but some of that, and again, I'm not calling anyone out here, but just search the Patriots hashtag on Twitter, you'll see for yourself. Some of it tends to be feast or famine, and we see this nationally as well. From a hot take perspective, definitely. It's either print the Super Bowl tickets, or this team is in deep, deep trouble. or famine, and we see this nationally as well. From a hot take perspective, definitely. It's either print the Super Bowl tickets, or this team is in deep, deep trouble. And this is what Russell and I will discuss today in a moment. And I always look forward to Russell bringing an objective approach to this and all things Patriots. I enjoy it, and I hope you will too.

But before I welcome Russell in today, I have a question for you. Yes, you, listening out there. Do your weekend plans involve watching football? What a ridiculous question, right? Of course they do. At the end of a hard week, it's great to sit down, take some time off, and watch some football. Game-winning touchdowns on two-minute drives, running backs racing down the sidelines with no one to stop them. There's nothing else like the NFL, and there's no better way to make the games even more exciting than to bet on them. MyBookie's got the fastest payouts and better lines than any other sportsbook.

Don't forget, where you're betting is just as important as who you're betting on, and MyBookie.ag is the best in the business. I wouldn't be telling you guys to bet with them if they weren't the best, so do the smart thing. If you're going to bet this football season, bet with MyBookie. If you're the kind of guy that likes to bet a little and win a lot, try a parlay. If all of your picks come through, you'll multiply your winnings. And no matter how you bet, the NFL season is the best time of year. Join now and MyBookie will double your first deposit.

Use promo code LOCKEDON to activate the offer. That's promo code LOCKEDON to activate the offer. That's promo code LOCKEDON. Visit mybookie.ag today. You play, you win, you get paid with MyBookie. My guest today is among the most well-respected journalists in sports media anywhere. You know his amazing work and objective analysis from outlets such as ESPN, Fan Sighted, and NFL Spin Zone. He is the co-founder of PFG Vibe, along with the great and talented Julie Voigt. He is the founder of Pro Football Guru. It is my honor to welcome back Russell S. Baxter to Locked On Patriots.

Russell, thank you so much for joining me this morning. Time flies when a football season begins. It's just amazing. It's something I say all the time to colleagues and friends. I can't wait for it to get here. And then the next time you talk to somebody, it's week six, just like that. Absolutely. It really, really is. My apologies.

Week seven. It is week really is. My apologies. Week seven. It is week seven. We're already in week six. That is correct. We're through week six. And, no, definitely good. Thank you for the clarification there. But, no, it always is.

Having you in during preseason was excellent. And we're going to delve into that a little bit this morning as well and also what we can expect for the next portion of the season. But, Russell, the big reason why I wanted to talk to you this morning as well, and also what we can expect for the next portion of the season. But Russell, the big reason why I wanted to talk to you this morning is because you always bring a level-headed approach to analysis for anything and everything NFL. And the Patriots still sit at 6-0 right now. They've been greatly praised on defense, and rightfully so on that. Offensively, they've struggled a little bit, but they're still putting up big numbers.

Some have argued that their 6-0 record is more indicative of their competition rather than their level of play. Now, I opened the show today by giving my feelings on this, meaning that I believe that while their record definitely, their schedule, excuse me, needs to be taken into account, it shouldn't be an indictment on their record, But you are as unbiased as they come in sports journalism. And from a national perspective, what is your opinion of the Patriots? And do you believe they live up to the hype of being undefeated? Well, you know, it's funny. It's, you know, yes, of course they do because they are undefeated.

And they have played everybody on their schedule. And, you know, the schedule is what it is. But I'm a great believer in one aspect when it comes to any sports. It's not who you play, it's how you play, okay? And when you watch them play and you see how their defense plays and you see the fact that their offense or special teams are giving up as many touchdowns as their defense. I mean, we're in a day and age of a passing game, and it took them six games to give up a touchdown pass. That's not caliber of competition. I'm sorry.

So they have obviously some fine-tuning to do on the other side of the ball, but what's fascinating about them and it's always been fascinating to me about the Patriots, is how they evolve and change, okay? They're like a chameleon. The teams that won the Super Bowls in the early 2000s were nothing compared to these teams now. Now this team, which by the way hasn't won a Super Bowl yet, okay, it's more closer to the early 2000 teams than it is the modern teams. To a degree, we saw some of that last year, Mike, when they beat the Bears in Chicago. They weren't great offensively. They scored 38 points, but they found other ways to put the ball in the end zone on special teams. That's what we're seeing this year as well. The takeaways are amazing.

They lead the league in takeaways after six weeks. Again, they've given up one touchdown pass. And that's not caliber of competition. It's just the Patriots finding a different way to get the job done. And, you know, be it a short field um be at Tom Brady not playing his best at times and the offense not playing and and really the offense to me has been spotty and really had I would say like really one bad half of football and that was against Buffalo and I'd like to give Buffalo's defense a little credit because as we are seeing they're pretty physical

they're pretty tough that's a much improved team in the trenches. So, you know, I think the national perception is when it comes to the Patriots from afar is here we go again. That would be the national perspective when it comes to New England Patriots. Now, admittedly, you look at the back end. I noticed this when I was looking at the schedule before the season even started. They have their share of road games, and they have their share of road games against teams that were in the playoffs last year, and even the teams that they host were in the playoffs.

I want to say the back end of the schedule has Baltimore and Philadelphia and Houston and Kansas City. But as we see all the time, it doesn't take long for a playoff team from a year ago to look ordinary at best. Ask the Rams. Ask the Cowboys. Ask the Chiefs. That's why they have this really cool rule in the NFL that you have to play every game, Mike. Absolutely. And, you know, the last line of that is so elementary, but it is so spot on. You play your own, and Bill Parcells was famous for saying this for years, you're only as good as what your schedule tells you and what your record tells you.

And I agree with you on that. It is not necessarily a level of competition when you see what the defense has been able to do. I also agree with you on offense and on special teams. The Patriots are finding new ways to get the ball into the end zone. At the end of the day, the points that you put up on the board, as long as you're putting up more than the opposite team, you're winning the game.

And I think the Patriots, especially Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, Josh McDaniels, they would all be the first to admit and say, if we're getting the W, that's the most important stat. That's the one we're always looking for. And you did mention that. I'm sorry. Go ahead. People look at it like, well, the Patriots won their Super Bowl. Remember when they won their first three Super Bowls in four years?

I used to hear they won them only by three. Now, unless you're a gambler, that means something, okay? Exactly. Absolutely, yep. We take away the Giants because they beat the Bills by one, okay? The Super Bowl win is the Super Bowl win. They find ways to win Super Bowls, okay? So this is, you know, Mike Tomlin always talking about, it's not about style points. Okay, it's finding ways to win the game.

They went, you and I discussed this, they went into the playoffs last year and transformed themselves into a power football team that smashed the Chargers, the Chiefs, and the Rams with a running game. They got 150 yards rushing minimum in all those games. They constantly find ways. The 2001 team in the playoffs, their offense scored three touchdowns in three games. Their defense and special teams scored three touchdowns in three games.

We've seen other of the Super Bowl teams score three touchdowns in one quarter. Okay? So this is always a changing team. The team that won in 2001 is nothing like the 2014 team. The 2003 team is nothing like the 2016 team. Okay? The 2018 team was probably the most unpredictable because of how bad they were on the road at times. So I don't even know what this version is going to wind up being.

I mean, for all we know, Mike, maybe this is the 2015 team that I believe won its first 10 games and then struggled down the stretch and didn't get to the Super Bowl, so who knows? Yeah, and it definitely is possible. And there are levels of competition out there in the AFC that are looking to challenge this team, and that leads me into my next question quite nicely. Patriots' primary competition right now, a lot of people are looking to challenge this team. And that leads me into my next question quite nicely. Patriots primary competition right now,

a lot of people are looking at it as a matchup between the Houston Texans and the Kansas City Chiefs. I think there are a couple of honorable mentions to be mentioned there. You mentioned the Buffalo Bills. I think that defense is definitely formidable, very, very stout, and among the best in the league. Baltimore Ravens always have an opportunity. They have a good defense.

They can move the ball on offense. So those are two teams also to keep an eye on as well. One of those teams is in action tonight, as a matter of fact, on Thursday night football. The Chiefs take on the Broncos. Texans coming off of a big win against the Chiefs on Sunday. As someone with his finger on the national pulse of the NFL, who among these teams do you believe is the most formidable challenger

to the Patriots? I think there's one you haven't mentioned, and that's not take away from Kansas City or Houston. Houston, which is playing obviously with a great deal of confidence, they really kind of rebounded after stubbing their toe at home against Carolina. As we found out against Carolina, Carolina seems to be an up-and-coming team. I still put a lot into the Indianapolis Colts. I know Andrew Luck is not there anymore. But, you know, unfortunately for the defensive linemen around the National Football League, Quentin Nelson did not announce his retirement during the summer.

Very good point. Yeah, that offensive line, Braden Smith on there as well, that's a road grader. They look like they can do that to anyone. I know they did it to Kansas City and Houston in some ways did it the same way last week. They were down 17-3 and never abandoned the run and won that game at Kansas City. The Colts to me, because of who they have in the trenches and the fact that eventually they'll get some of their defensive, I mean, the defensive rookie of the year last year was Darius Leonard. He hasn't played a lot

this year because he's been hurt. So, and Houston, to me, their offensive line has played better. There's no question about it. I also think they have their best running back that they've had since Arian Foster, and that's Carlos Hyde, who runs everybody over for every team he's played for, okay, and played against. So your point with Houston is very, very valid. Deshaun Watson, the comfort level with him, having Will Fuller healthy, they still have a lot of good defensive parts, obviously, even with Jadavion Clowney dealt to Seattle. Kansas City, frankly, worries me a little.

They went from the 3-4 to the 4-3. Their defense hasn't changed that much. It doesn't look that much different than it did even when they were 4-0 this year, Mike. 40-26, still struggling, in some ways keeping teams in the game. They played the Raiders and beat them at 28-10. They didn't score in three of those quarters. It was all second-quarter points, okay? They were down 10-0 going into the second quarter.

The Chiefs, to me, have a lot of work to do. Their offensive line is not totally healthy, but this scheme change – and it's funny. Steve Spagnuolo made his bones really as the defensive coordinator who helped knock off the undefeated Patriots when he was with the Giants in 2007 you look at his track record with other teams there are times I know this sounds crazy there are times where Steve Spagnuolo's defense have finished dead last in the league in yards allowed.

In fact, the year that Sean Payton was suspended, Steve Spagnuolo was in New Orleans that year. And Mike, that team gave up the most total yards in the history of the NFL in one season. Yeah, very good point. Very, very good point. And I agree with you, actually, on the Indianapolis Colts, and shame on me for actually not bringing them up as someone that I believe could make a good push for the playoff spot and a high playoff spot mention the Indianapolis Colts being a contender, but the fact that Jacoby Brissett is taking snaps in Indy right now does give the New England Patriots fans a little bit of a warm and fuzzy feeling because Jacoby was very, very well liked up here, and it's nice to

see him doing great things, but again, the offensive line that the Colts are able to put out, their defense has been very formidable. That is a very good team that they can make a great challenge to the Patriots. And the Patriots have games coming up with all of those teams, with the exception of the Colts, in the regular season coming forward. So it will be interesting to see how they match up against some very, very tough competition. But the Patriots have a game coming up on Monday, and that is their first and foremost challenge in not only staying unbeaten, but also gaining and maintaining a leg up

on the competition in the AFC East, and that is the New York Jets. They will be in action on Monday Night Football. Jets are riding a big win against the Cowboys in Week 6. Sam Donald is back. The Jets' defense is playing very well. They rank number 10 in the NFL right now in DVOA, so this is a defense that can make some plays. This is going to be a much better game than the one-sided 30-14 contest that we saw

in Foxborough on September 22nd. What should both Pats fans and Jets fans be watching for in this one on Monday Night Football? Well, I think the Jets are going to try to pound Le'Veon Bell down the Patriots' throat. I don't think there's any question about that. This Patriots defense, like similar defenses the last couple of years, the Legion of Boom in Seattle, the no-fly zone, I'm referring to the secondary. The strength of this team is the back end. I'm not saying that the front end is bad, not in the least. But I think if you're going to get after this team,

the way to do it is, A, let's keep Tom Brady on the sidelines. B, let's see if we can establish the run, make it easier for play-action pass. And I think that's what the Jets are going to want to do, and I think that's what they need to do. Sam Darnold was sharp last week. He was my co-founder, Julie Voigt's Offensive Player of the Week for our PAT on the back column on PFG5.

There's my shameless plug. You go back, and it was funny because I know you remember the game in week two. A couple miscues on special teams and defense after they put in the backup quarterback for the Patriots. My name just went blank on me for a second. Jarrett Stidham. Jarrett Stidham put Brady back in the game. It wound up 30-14.

And we know, listen, we know the Jets' history. The Jets have not scored an offensive touchdown in Foxborough in their last four visits there. At least they scored some sort of touchdown this time, even though it was on defense and special teams. But I think the last couple of times the Jets beat the Patriots, they were at MetLife Stadium and it went to overtime. So it took the Jets more than four quarters to get the job done, but they haven't beaten

them a lot since 2011. I'll be curious to see if C.J. Mosley comes back for this game for the Jets. Good point. That's very, very important for them. Obviously, you talked about what a leg up this could be for the Patriots. Not only would they go to 7-0, they'd go to 4-0 in the division and sweep the Jets. And obviously, they have the Bills

and Dolphins later and stuff. They already beat the Bills. They beat the Bills and the Dolphins both on the road, which is even more significant when you're talking about winning a division title and so on. But I still think because of the way the Jets, I mean, the Patriots offense performed last

week, and I know it was a short week and I know they're having some injury issues and so on, but the fact that the Giants, who don't have a great pass rush, Mike, were able to get to Brady more than a few times. Obviously, the Marcus Golden play was huge. You know, for a while there, the Jets' defense was scoring more touchdowns than the Jets' offense. Right.

Yeah, and that's what they're going to have to do. I'll be just curious to see the confidence level of the Jets after beating Dallas. I'll just throw this out for giggles. The last two times, I believe, that Adam Gase was the head coach of a team

against the Patriots and his team played at home, he beat the Patriots, and his team played at home. He beat the Patriots. Is that correct? I believe it is with the Dolphins, I believe, as well. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

Absolutely. So we could do this scenario if you want. It's what? It's, you know, 35-30 with, you know, 10 seconds left. Somebody falls on the field, lateral, lateral, lateral, Jets win 36-35. Does that work? You know, it very well could be, and that's one thing that I've been trying to stress on the show this week,

especially in talking with Pats fans and interacting with them on social media, is that this is not the same Jets team that they faced in Week 2. There is a higher confidence level. They're coming in playing at a higher level. The Jets were a sleeper pick for me, too. I didn't end up actually going with them to pick the playoffs, but I had them very, very close in a playoff spot. And the reason being is because of the balance that they bring both on offense and on defense. I think you absolutely spot on nailed it when it comes to a game plan. I think the Jets are still going to be looking to Le'Veon Bell as their primary

option. The difference this time is he's not their only option, where he was in Week 2. We saw Luke Falk just couldn't carry the load. This time around, Sam Donald can balance that out. So if they can get a synergy going and maybe catch this defense a little off their game, then they do have a chance. And the defense can, the Jets' defense, meaning, can put pressure on Brady and can disrupt their game offensively as well. So I think this will be a much better game than we saw in Week 2. Well, it's Greg Williams. Okay, so expect the unexpected.

But one thing you can expect is a lot of heat and a lot of aggressiveness. Okay, that's been his whole model everywhere he's gone. Hasn't changed in New York. The defense has probably deserved a better fate so far when it comes to the Jets. Let's be honest. When you go through three starting quarterbacks in three games, that's tough.

It was bang, bang, bang. In fact, they went through three quarterbacks in less than two games because, of course, Trevor Simeon got hurt on the Monday night game against the Browns. It's one thing when you lose your quarterback before the season starts. It's another thing when you lose a player or a quarterback in the middle of a game. That obviously changes a lot of things. But kudos for the Jets for what they did last week, hung on and won that game.

And I think they do. I think they come in here with – now getting the job done is two totally different things, but I think they probably come in here with a little more confidence than they had the last couple weeks. Absolutely, and I completely agree. And stopping short of giving you my game prediction, which I will do in a couple of days here on Locked On, Russell, I think you've given our fans in New England something to really, really watch for

and some interesting tidbits, not just on this game coming up on Monday, but also from a national perspective on the Patriots and also who their suitors might be in terms of competition level going forward. You always, always bring it, my friend, and I can't thank you enough for joining me today and taking time out of your busy schedule to do so. For our listeners that don't know, where can they find your great work, and also where can they find you on social media, not only in print, but also on the airwaves?

Well, you go to profootballguru.com, the website. You can find my work. You can find actually Julie's work as well, the stuff that we collaborate on for PFG Vibe. You can find us on Twitter. I'm BaxFootballGuru. Julie is JulieNoted underscore PFG, and we together are PFG Vibe, all on Twitter. We have a Facebook page.

We have an Instagram page. We're working on a detergent, maybe a toothpaste. Who knows where the vibe will take us? Always great. So you know what? Whatever products Russell and Julie come out with, you know they're going to be top notch. You know they're going to be right at the top. And you know they're going to be fair, balanced, and level-headed.

And in this business, that is probably one of the better compliments that I can give for sure. And Russell, you're a dear friend of mine and a friend of the program. And we appreciate everything that you've given us. Thank you so much for joining me today, my friend. Have a great day. You too, sir. As for me, I will be back tomorrow to bring you the latest Pats News Notes analysis, and I continue to look ahead to the Pats Monday night showdown with the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets,

Jets. As always, please join us each and every day on the locked on Patriots podcast, subscribe and listen via your preferred podcast provider. Also here at locked on, we're very excited to launch our newest sports channel covering the NHL. As you know, by listening to this show, we feature local experts covering the biggest news and now we're covering the

ice with daily hockey podcasts. And for all you fans covering the biggest news, and now we're covering the ice with daily hockey podcasts. And for all you fans of the Spoked Bee, I encourage you to check out Locked On Bruins with host Ian McLaren. And no matter your favorite team, you can find that NHL team on our website, www.lockedonpodcast.com. Once again, I'm Mike DeBate. I thank Russell S. Baxter for his time, wisdom, and counsel today, but most of all, I thank you all so much for listening each and every day. Have a great day, everybody.