Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots October 19, 2018 - Gameday Edition

Episode Date: October 19, 2018

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If it's Friday, it's a game day edition of Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield slotted into the big chair for this Friday, October 19th, 2018. Going to do a little game day talk. My expectations for Sunday when your New England Patriots travel to the Midwest to take on the Chicago Bears. Before we dive in, though, a reminder to follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. Check out the work at places like InsideThePylon.com, Pro Football Weekly, The Score, Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio, Big Blue View, part of the SB Nation family of websites. Friends, if there's a website that's covering football, odds are pretty good that I'm doing some work for them about the game we all know and love. Today's show,

our typical game day fair. I'm going to talk about what to expect when the New England Patriots have the football. I'm going to talk about what to expect when the Bears have the ball. A little bit later, some predictions as well. Some college football matchups that I'm going to be watching that you might hear about in Sunday's Sunday morning Tailgate show. That's right. Remember, I will be back Sunday morning breaking down some DFS stuff, some recommendations there for you men and women out there that love the DFS game. Also some last minute injury news and notes as well as a recap of the college football action. But let's get to the meat and potatoes of the show here. What to expect this Sunday when the Patriots travel to Soldier Field.

And I want to start when the Patriots have the football. Because over the past couple of weeks, we have seen really this Patriots offense sort of become what many of us were hoping it would become. A very versatile offense. A very scheme diverse offense. They will come out 22-21 personnel like they did at Kansas City and pound the ball behind James Devlin and Shaq Mason. Sonny Michel, we're seeing some growth from Sonny Michel as a running back. Finding and identifying creases. Running through those lanes.

Running through smoke. Getting skinny through holes. But they still have the ability to spread you out. Look, two of the biggest plays that they had against Kansas City on Sunday night were when they went five wide. Brady and the gun alone they ran a little you know a little two-man rub concept with Hogan running the wheel route while they get an outside receiver running the slant that big vertical ball to Chris Hogan then a

little bit later they come back with a sun concept of Hogan's on the outside running an in route you get a scene from Robert Gronkowski on On both of those plays, Tom Brady doing perhaps what he does best, manipulating the free safety in the middle of the field. Ron Parker getting him to move to a two-receiver side, away from the three-receiver side, and then coming back and throwing away from the safety rotation. So this is an offense that has multiple ways to beat you now. The big task, obviously, and some of this may come down to injuries,

is look, you've got Khalil Mack on the other side of the ball. We know what Mack can do. We saw him last year in Mexico City, strangely enough, matched up against Lur Adrian Waddell, who might have to go on Sunday. Marcus Cannon coming off of a concussion against the Chiefs. And Lur Adrian Waddell handled him well in that game. But now this is a different defense. This is a Bears defense that is a little bit different from what we saw in the Oakland Raiders last year.

They've got some more talent up front. Hakeem Nix is a nice defensive end that they've got. Roquan Smith, Danny Trevathan, Leonard Floyd. They have some guys up front that can get after the passer. It's not just Khalil Mack. But when you look at this defense, there are some things that teams have done against Mack specifically, schematically. You look at that Seattle Seahawks game back in week two.

They did a lot of stuff with detached tight ends, forcing Mack to widen his alignment. They would run one or two guys out to chip at him, give some help to Jermaine Afidi, the right tackle for the Seattle Seahawks. Mack still had a monster game, but Seattle was able to claw their way back once they sort of wear him down a bit. It's one thing early in the game if you're getting double teams, triple teams, you

can still work off of that, a player of Khalil Mack's caliber. But late in the games, when you've had guys run at you over and over and over again, chip you, bump you, nudge you, force you outside wide, make you cover a long distance to get to the quarterback, that's going to take its toll. It's very much like a prize fight.

When you're a boxer, you bank those body shots early. Yeah, they're not going to pay off. You're not going to knock a guy out in the first round working the body. But late in the game, you wear him down. Late in the match, you wear him down. Late in the bout, you've worn him down to the point where he doesn't have his legs under him. He doesn't have that conditioning. You bank those body blows early, it's going to pay off in rounds eight, nine, and ten. It's the same thing going up against a guy like Khalil Mack. Maybe he's going to get to Brady a couple of times early, but you force him to work. You force

the effort. You make him rely on his conditioning, you wear him down, you bank those bloody blows where he's got to get through a chip from Gronkowski and then maybe a cannon or a waddle with some dedicated running back help when they've detached him and make him work a cover, a ground, a distance to get to Brady, that's going to pay off in the third and fourth quarters. And so that's one thing I'm watching for.

Another thing I'm watching for is, can New England sort of establish the ground game yet again? When you look at the success that they have had over the past couple of weeks on the ground, they had 175 yards on the ground against the Miami Dolphins, 173 last week against the Kansas City Chiefs. And you look at this Bears defense, first four games, they give up 69 rushing yards to Green Bay, just 74 against Seattle, 53 against Arizona, 60 against Tampa Bay.

Then they come off the bye, they go down to Miami. Miami racks up 161 yards on the ground. If New England can sort of duplicate those kind of numbers, that's going to go a long way towards them you know being able to win this game out in Chicago and this is a defense that right now look it's one of the better defenses to be sure you know but there are still some ways that you can attack this defense ways that you can do that well obviously you've got a neutralized Mac that's issue number one number, I think you've got to work the ground game. We saw last week from this defense that they struggled a little bit to stop the run.

Miami was able to get the ground game going and went a long way towards them sort of going into pulling out a win at home. So that was definitely one thing to look at. Otherwise, look, you can make plays against this team and against this secondary, particularly at the linebacker spot. Roquan Smith, very athletic middle linebacker. There's a reason that they drafted him early. You know, he's going to be a great one in the National Football League, but he's still young. He's still inexperienced. I think there are going to be some matchup opportunities, perhaps with him against Gronkowski, perhaps with James White against some of the other linebackers, that the Patriots will be able to take advantage of some opportunities in the pass game, working away from the wide receivers and focusing more and more on those guys out of the backfield

or those guys like Rob Gronkowski working off the edges against linebackers. And so that's going to be a focus, as it was last week. Remember, I was talking a lot last week about the ability of guys like James White to get going in the pass game. In the secondary, there are some guys that can play. Mookamora, Kyle Fuller, there are some solid corner options, but they've given them up some plays. They've certainly given them up some plays.

This is a team that does a lot of single high stuff in the secondary. You'll see some cover ones, some cover threes. You'll see them routes as well. Look for that Haas concept. I know I talk about it a ton, but it's one of New high stuff in the secondary. You'll see some cover one, some cover three. Some of the seam routes as well. You know, look for that Haas concept. I know I talk about it a ton, but it's one of New England's favorite passing concepts. They're going to come back to it again and again and again. And obviously, you know, we got to end with TB12 himself. You know, an opportunity for him again to do what he does best.

Move around in the pocket. You know, he's going to have to slide and move and evade Khalil Mack at times if he can go. That's Khalil Mack, that is. Obviously, TB12, no injury hand-ups there. But Brady sort of buying time, looking downfield while keeping the eyes trained downfield while moving around in the pocket. That's going to be key. Some scheme stuff from this Bears defense to mention briefly.

They will bring some corner blitzes. Even though they've got Mack and some other guys that can get after it. They will blitz a lot against Seattle on a third and two play, third and short. That's when they like to blitz. They'll bring corner blitzes off the edge. Sometimes they'll blitz behind Mack as well. There was another

example in that game where they had Mack across from the right tackle. They bring a corner blitz off that way as well. That's kind of something that is a little bit scary to think about. With Roquan Smith, you know, he will be a little bit slow in underneath coverage and underneath zone coverage. He will close late. He's an extremely incredible athlete.

So he will close late, but you have to be quick with your decisions there. Seattle went, you know, with a lot of boot stuff. I would be surprised if the Patriots do a ton of that, but they will do that at times. They will also move Mack around. They don't just leave him over the right tackle. They will move him around. They'll put him over the left tackle at times,

so you need to be sort of aware at what he's doing, where he is on the field. In the secondary, you have to be good. The quarterback with your eyes, Amu Kamara, for example, he's very good. He's great at film study. He had a pick six against Seattle where it was a concept that the Seahawks had run a number of times. He even responded to a tweet about it saying, look, he had seen the film.

He had studied up. He knew what Russell Wilson was going to do in that moment. Read the eyes. Broke on it. Pick six touchdowns. So you've got to be careful with the football if you're Tom Brady. So that's kind of a look at what to expect when the Patriots have the ball. Up next, I'm going to talk a little bit more about this Bears offense.

Mitchell Trubisky, Tariq Cohen and company. A little bit later, some predictions as well as some games. I'm going to be keeping an eye on this Saturday. That's all ahead on this game day edition of Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield back with you now on this game day edition of Locked On Patriots. And we're going to talk about the Chicago Bears offense. Which, to be honest, it's a great time for the Patriots to go up against this team. Because there is a certain element of schematic

familiarity between what Andy Reid does with Patrick Mahomes and with Matt Nagy doing what he's doing with Mitchell Trubisky. Obviously, that would make sense, right? You know, Matt Nagy coming from that Andy Reid system. And there are certainly some personnel type familiarity between these players. Trey Burton, kind of their version of Travis Kelsey. You look at a guy like Anthony Miller. There you've got perhaps maybe a Chris Conley-type clone there. Taylor Gabriel. Maybe there's a little bit of a Tyreek Hill element.

Maybe Tariq Cohen is a little bit of a Tyreek Hill element there. So they've got two speedy, shifty guys that they move around a ton. You look at Allen Robinson, you know, they've been able to do some stuff in the past game with him as well, more of a bigger body type receiver and, you know, perhaps, you know, similar in how, you know, Andy Reid is using Sammy Watkins. And so there's some familiar stuff, some familiar elements that should help ease the sort of game plan process for Bill Belichick, for Brian Flores. When you talk about Mitchell Trubisky,

it's important to remember that this is an inexperienced quarterback. He had, I think, 12 or 13 starts to his name at UNC. Then he comes out a little bit early, gets drafted second overall, doesn't start right away, sits behind Mike Glenn, and then he comes in for a starter in a completely different offense, a much more conservative system.

Now he's under Matt Nagy, who's tasked really with his development. And so when I sit back and look at Mitchell Trubisky, I'm kind of looking at this as basically an extension of his rookie season. It's similar in a sense to golf. Obviously that was what the bears organization was hoping to replicate that sort of offensive minded head coach like mcveigh coming in that big second year leap but golf had been started since he was basically on campus at california you know he was a multiple year starter and that certainly wasn't the case with trubisky and so

you know i do think that there is an inexperienced element there. So everything that Trubisky does, all of the production, the stats, the mistakes, the rawness, the development that needs to happen, needs to be viewed through that lens. Now, that being said, I think he's made some great strides. Part of it comes from that sort of installation of confidence in him from Matt Nagy. And I talked about that a little bit on Tuesday, how he's gone back to some designs and some route concepts, whether it's from a week-to-week basis or even

a drive-to-drive basis that Trubisky may have missed on that he's hit. So there's that. There's some refinement in the lower body mechanics. You look at the touchdown pass that he threw to Anthony Miller at the end of that game against the Miami Dolphins. And one of the areas where Mitchell Trubisowski had some flaws mechanically was he would flare that left hip open. It would cause him to open up. It would sort of break the chain, the linkage, the synchronization between the lower body and the upper body. And you'd see some incomplete passes, some passes sail high as a result. That touchdown pass to Miller, however, perfect rhythm, form, synchronization, and structure allowed him to generate torque,

put the ball exactly where it needs to be. He's hitting some deep balls. That was something that they were missing early in the year. Matt Nagy said, look, we're going to stay aggressive. Trubisky telling the media, look, we're going to stay aggressive. They've been hitting on those. That's certainly something to watch. If you're an underdog, a team like Chicago in a game like this, you hit a couple of deep shots, you get yourself into some two, three, four play drive type situations where you get the ball into the end zone. That's going to be key to pulling off an upset. Other stuff to watch with this Bears offense. Tariq Cohen, I think, is a massive X factor in this game. You know, they love him out of the backfield. They love to split him out wide.

They love him in the red zone. They would use him on those Texas routes, those angle routes. He's very much utilized like the Patriots utilize James White. And so if we see some They would use him on those Texas routes, those angle routes. He's very much utilized like the Patriots utilize James White. And so, if we see some matchups with him on Hightower, with him on Van Noy, something to worry about,

something to consider. And so, I do wonder if, you know, Bill Belichick puts together a game plan, hem and blind floors, are they going to be focused

on stopping Burton, like we saw last week with Kelsey, or are they going to be worried about number 29? So, that's something else to think focused on stopping Burton, like we saw last week with Kelsey? Or are they going to be worried about number 29? So that's something else to think about. Allen Robinson, that's going to be Trubisky's sort of go-to guy. If there's a third and seven type situation, sometimes I'll look to Burton, sure.

Sometimes I'll scheme some stuff up for Cohen. But he trusts Robinson. He's developing a very good relationship with Robinson. And so you certainly have to account for him. I do wonder in terms of a potential coverage type situation who they're going to stick on whom. I mean, we've seen that in the past couple of weeks, sticking Stephon Gilmore and Watkins, for example,

and saying, look, you just get him and take him out of the game. Now, Robinson does have a groin injury, so it's unclear if he's going to play. He is officially questionable, but assuming he goes, look, you're talking about a 6-3 receiver, you know, that might be the situation where Gilmore is going to have to, you know, handle him, try to take him out of the game. You're on an island with him. And then we're going to deal with the rest of the guys with the other 10 guys on the field.

So that might be another situation that we've seen from the New England Patriots in the past. One last quick thing to mention when we're talking about this offense, Jordan Howard is somebody that talks about the Chicago Bears a ton, that writes about the Chicago Bears a ton. I'm seeing a lot of Bears fans,

and they're a little bit angsty right now with some of the uses of Jordan Howard. It's been a little bit up and down with him you know in terms of rushing attempts yeah he's got the bulk of him 78 for 272 yards one touchdown on the year he's averaging just 54.4 yards per game and so some Bears fans would like this team to establish the run and get a little bit more of a ground game going you know this is an offense that you that right now when you're looking at what they do per game running the football, it's not great.

You look at this run offense right now for the Chicago Bears. As a team, the Bears are averaging where's the number right here? 130 yards per game on the ground, which is pretty good. It's good for 14th in the league, but Howard's not doing a ton of it for them. Patriots, by the way, for 14th in the league, but Howard's not doing a

ton of it for them. And Patriots, by the way, are 9th in the league with 100 and... Excuse me, how did this get jumbled? There we go. Now I fixed it. And Patriots are 11th in the league, averaging 123 yards per game. Bears are actually 8th, so it's a little bit better. This sort of column here just kind of made me sound like a fool on the air, and I don't appreciate it. But yeah, I mean, Howard has been sort of underwhelming for Bears fans, and they want to see him get used more. But then conversely, he was used a ton in overtime, and then Bears fans thought Nagy probably got a little bit too conservative.

They ended up missing a field goal. And so trying to strike that balance with Jordan Howard has been something that they've been struggling with this year. It wouldn't surprise me against New England. You're seeing Tom Brady and that offense and what they can do. They try to establish the run a little bit more. We see a lot more Jordan Howard carries. Really try to get that ground game going.

Take some time off the clock. Keep Brady on the sideline. That's a method that a lot of teams have tried in the past to sort of quiet, slow down, and take games away from Tom Brady. Best way to beat him is to keep him on the sideline. So those are some things I'm going to be looking for

when the Bears have the football. Up next, my prediction as well as, well, some thoughts on the college football slate, including the game that's going to be near and dear to my heart. That's ahead on this game day edition of Locked on Patriots. Mark Schofield, back with you now on this game day edition of Locked On Patriots Mark Schofield back with you now on this game day edition of Locked On Patriots and let's look at the

prediction I have in mind for this game do that quickly get it out of the way and then talk some college football stuff you know I look at this game a couple different ways you know I do think that the Bears are going to try to make it a low scoring game make it a run game defensive type of game but I'm not so sure they're going to be successful in that endeavor. So I look at it, I look at New England 34, Bears 24,

sort of a two-score type game. One of those traditional Patriots games where it's never really in doubt, but it's never really sort of salted away until the end. So you kind of pace a little bit. Maybe not as much as Red Sox fans pacing, for know, so you kind of pace a little bit. Maybe not as much as, you know, Red Sox fans pacing, for example, Wednesday night, Craig Kimbera on the mound. Ooh, that was a little dicey. Obviously, I'm recording this as, you know, the latest Red Sox game is getting underway. Hopefully, by the time you're listening to this, the Red Sox have punched a

ticket to the World Series, but fingers crossed there. That's kind of how I feel about the way this game is going to play out. Let's look at the college football slate. Some interesting games that I'm going to be keeping an eye on. Big one probably, you know, Michigan, Michigan State. Brian Lewerke, what's he going to do? Curious to see him in that kind of environment. Noontime kickoff for that one.

That's a big one, but going to keep an eye on that one early. NC State, Clemson. You know, this is a huge opportunity for Ryan Finley I know I've got some great friends in the draft community Joe Marino for example I'm a huge fan of Joe Marino and the work he does

the Draft Dudes podcast him and Kyle Krabs some of the other work they do together over at the Draft Network and Joe Riston who you should definitely be following on Twitter which which you can do. He's on Twitter, at the Joe Marino.

He's basically kind of cooled on Ryan Finley, for example. I think this is a big opportunity for him sort of to make the leap. And it's going to be very, very good to see him sort of, you know, take a big step, you know, if he, if he does, against Clemson. Another quarterback that, another game that I'm going to be keeping an eye on, Mississippi State, LSU. That's a big one in the SEC. And I think that Joe Burrow, quietly having a nice little year for the LSU Tigers.

Maybe he's sort of making a name for himself, might sort of play himself, you know, into an opportunity in a game like this, have a huge day in a game like that. So that's going to be one that I'm going to keep an eye on. Elsewhere around the spectrum, you've got Oregon, Washington State, that is your game day, you know, ESPN game day crew. They're going to be there for that one. Another opportunity for Justin Herbert. Basically everybody's consensus QB1 right now, which is understandable.

Had a bit of a down game against Washington last week. You want to see a bounce back from him. It's going to be a tough environment with game day there. You know that crowd on Pullman is going to be amped. That's going to be a fun one to watch. Down a level. Illinois State, North Dakota State. This is a championship game rematch from a couple years ago

where Carson Wentz, in I believe the 2015 season, had a comfort behind win. Another opportunity opportunity another chance to watch Easton Stick who's been as I've said a little bit underwhelming this year but I would love to see him step up going down a couple of levels this is a game that is near and dear to me personally Amherst at Wesleyan. It's little three season, kids. And those Amherst-Wesleyan, those little three games, Wesleyan-Williams, Williams-Amherst, those games are always, always special. Those are usually the games where they're homecoming weekends. Whenever we would play at Amherst or at Williams, it was always homecoming weekend. They would always have the tailgate and tents set up

and they would always make it so you would have to walk through the most recent class of graduates to get to the field. Why? Those are the ones that are gonna be more likely to be thrown back at nine, 10, 11 in the morning. So you've got to walk out there for pregame, dodging beer bottles.

Yeah, I know what it's like to have a bottle of beer thrown at my head when I'm in a, you know, it's a cold October day in the New England area. So it's not fun. Let's put it that way. You know, I had some horrible things, you know, said to me during those walks. It's part of the environment. It's part of the atmosphere.

And so, you know, those games are games that as a senior, you're going to remember them, those little three games. For the seniors are going to be suiting it up. You know, this is one of their final two little three games. For the seniors that are going to be suiting it up, this is one of their final two little three games. These are games that they will remember forever. I never got a chance to beat Amherst, beat Williams once in my four years there. And these are the games that will come with you, that will stay with you, that will haunt you into your 30s, into your 40s. I mean, I still remember we had a chance to beat Williams my sophomore year

on a last-second field goal. Jake Fay drives us down the field. I'm the holder. Snap was good. Placement was good. And our kicker just kind of pushed it. And I remember pulling our kicker up off the field. He sort of collapsed after missing kind of a chip-shot field goal.

And, you know, I remember that moment. I'll remember it forever. I'm thinking you were that close to beating them. I remember our final, my last shot at Amherst. It was the first overtime game, I believe, in NESCAC history. And they just beat us at home. And that's something that you will remember forever. I remember, you know, seeing them being on the sideline, watching their offense pull off. I believe it was a double reverse type play to score in overtime and take that game away from us. Something I'll never forget. And those games will

stick with you. And so to all the players that are going to be suiting it up, up in Middletown for that game, I'm wishing them the best of luck. Obviously my heart is with the red and black. Go West. That will do it for today's show. I will be back on Sunday morning breaking all of this down for you, getting you ready for the Sunday slate of games.

Until then, have a fantastic, fantastic Friday and Saturday nights, everybody. Hopefully, the next time we talk again, the New England Patriots are going to be ready to win. The Boston Red Sox have punched a ticket to the World Series. And life will be great in the New England area. But until next time, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield. In Locked on Patriots.