Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots October 2, 2018 - Tape Tuesday

Episode Date: October 2, 2018

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Hello there everybody, welcome on in to Lockdown Patriots for Tuesday, October 2nd, 2018. Mark Schofield back in the big chair for this Tape Tuesday installment of Lockdown Patriots. A little bit different, we're on a condensed week, so our Tape Tuesday discussion is going to focus on the Indianapolis Colts. We don't have time to look back. We can't look in the rearview mirror right now, friends. We've got a game in a couple days that we've got to get ready for.

Before we do that, a reminder to follow me on Twitter, at Mark Schofield. Check out the work at places like InsideThePylon.com, where I'm one of the head writers. Pro Football Weekly, where I'm a scheme analyst

covering Mitchell Trubisky and his trials and tribulations. And his second year as the starting quarterback of the head writers. Pro Football Weekly where I'm a scheme analyst covering Mitchell Trubisky and his trials and tribulations. And his second year as the starting quarterback for the Chicago Bears. I also do some scheme analysis over there. You can check out work at places like The Score NFL where I'm an NFL featured columnist. Matt Waldman's rookie scouting portfolio. Big Blue View, part of the SB Nation of websites.

Family of websites covering the New York Giants. As I've said before, if there's a website or an outlet covering football, chances are they've got me doing some work on it for them. Today's show, locked and loaded for you. We're going to talk at the end, very end, I want to talk briefly about guys like Trubisky, Rosen, and Mayfield. Saw some stuff from them this weekend that I liked, so I want to just chat about that for a few minutes. But the focus today is going to be on the Colts. We're going to talk what they do on offense. We're going to talk what they do on defense. But first, we do have to talk about Rob Gronkowski. He did not participate. He was listed as a non-participant on their projected practice report. Since this is

a condensed week, the Patriots had to release a practice report for today Monday even though they were not fully practicing he was listed as somebody who did not participate on that report so his status is definitely up in the air for Thursday night's game against the Indianapolis Colts and he's a player that the Patriots are going to want to have on the field as we're going to talk about but let's talk the Colts and their passing game right now and obviously coming into this season many people myself included were wondering how Andrew Luck truly was from a health perspective was he fully back and there were some question marks about Andrew Luck over the first couple of weeks of this season, particularly from an average depth of target perspective.

People, particularly in the fantasy community, were wondering if he had lost it, if he had sort of taken a real step back. You know, when you look at average depth of target, ADOT, for example, you know, that's a good way to understand where people are throwing the ball, where their attempts are downfield. Are they throwing it deep or are they shallow type passes? And looking at Andrew Luck going into week four, his average depth of target was about 5 or 5.2 yards, depending on where you were looking at it. That's below average.

And I was on, for example, a podcast with Matt Waldman last week, the RSPCast, and we talked about that a bit. And a lot of people sort of in the fantasy community were looking at ADOT, and they brought up the fact, is he really back? Is the shoulder okay? And if you look at that game, for example, against the Eagles that the Colts had,

that was played in weather, that was played in conditions, and there were some throws that really hung up there. And I myself even looked at the tape hand-in-hand with those numbers, started to wonder, even though, look, Frank Reich's offense, it is more of a West Coast air raid type offense. So a lot of the throws are schemed to be in the short area of the field. But when you see him try to push the ball downfield with velocity and the ball hangs a bit, you start to wonder. You can take that and throw it out the window now. Because I think Luck made some throws against Houston, even though that was a game that the Texans ended up winning. The deep shot to T.Y. Hilton. I think you can kind of take those concerns and cast them aside now.

I think luck is back. As for what the Colts do schematically on offense in the passing game, as I mentioned, under Frank Reich, you're going to see some quick game stuff. You're going to see a lot of West Coast air raid type stuff. Picture the Eagles offense last year, and you know what the Eagles were able to do against this defense last year in the Super Bowl. Some other stuff that they work in, they love

curl flat. Curl flat is a basic, basic, you know, West Coast type design where one receiver is running the curl route, usually the inside receiver, other receiver releasing to the flat. They love it mirrored. What that means is you get the same curl flat look to both sides of the formation. Sometimes it's, you know, slot receiver runs the curl, outside receiver runs a flat to the left, and then to the backside, you might have Y.I. So for example, with the tight end, he's running a curl, running back, running the flat, and that third receiver somewhere, he'll run either a curl or sit route over the middle. So it basically gives the quarterback the same look to both sides of the field, and he just reads best look, best matchup,

short side of the field, whatever he wants to do on a given play. I love mirrored passing concepts for quarterbacks. I think they're a great way to give the quarterback some defined reads. You can still go full field. You can still work it right to left or left to right, however you want to do it, but you know it's the same on both sides. It really speeds up the decision-making process. one of the things they love to do with that though is that they love to go sort of curl flat but then instead of that third receiver you know being that sit route over the middle they'd love to have that third route in there be a post route sort of over the top it's something they've done a couple of times that they did it against the eagles twice you know they did it on their third drive of the game where they go mirrored curl flat out of trips but the middle

trips receiver instead of running either curl or flat he goes post over the top and so they're going to show you that look that curl flat and then you got to be wary of that sort of post route hitting that up over the top so defense needs to be wary about that. Naeem Hines, he's a player I talked about a ton in the pre-draft phase. I thought he would fit as a potential sort of like Deion Lewis type replacement. Well, they found a home for him in this offense. They love him on two routes in particular. They love him on wheel routes, and they love him on Texas routes. We all know the wheel route. People love to call it undefeated. It's not undefeated. It's close. It's very, very close.

It's as close as you can get to an undefeated play in football. They love the wheel route with him. They hit it for a touchdown against Houston. They love the Texas route as well. That's that route. Shane Vereen, if you're a Patriots fan listening to the show, you know what I'm about to say. Shane Vereen, that sort of Texas route where you start outside out of the backfield,

angling towards the outside, and then you break back sort of on a slant. That's a great route, particularly when you get that running back isolated on a linebacker in man-to-man coverage. We know T.Y. Hilton, he hit him for a deep shot in that Houston game, but he's banged up. Probably not good for this week. He was also a non-sorter participant on the Indianapolis practice report for Monday, so he's probably not going to go. Another concept they love, they love sticks, which is basically a curl route right at the first down marker. They love doing that.

They will do that second down, third down, second in lawn, third in lawn. So that's a design that you have to really be wary of. They love doing that some other route designs that they like they'll go mills you know they love using that mills concept where you've got that dig route and a post route over the top you know gives you a nice chance to get a high low in that middle of the field safety you know they ran that multiple times against houston this week um so that's a route you have to be wary. You know, he hit Rodgers, Curtis Rodgers, on a post on that.

Great velocity and great placement. You know, so again, I think the arm is back, you know, for Andrew Luck. You know, some other route designs that I noticed that the Patriots need to be wary of. They love that real concept that the Patriots hit for a touchdown, you know, this past week against Miami. They love it too, but he'll throw the slant. You know, you've got that slant and then the wheel from the inside receiver working to the outside. You want to create that rub. The Eagles, when they saw that, they played off. They played sort of zone. And then what they did was, you know, when

they sort of played off and switched it, they played sort of zone, luck through the slant route instead and took advantage of them, you know, switching it the way they did. With that curl flat, another thing they like to do, I've said they show that post, they'll do post and go too. You know, coming back to that curl flat mirror design, you know, sometimes when that third route is a post route over the top, they'll go post and then that receiver that runs the post will then break vertically. So you might see that curl flat. You start to get anxious on that one. Then they show you that post route over the top. Maybe that beats you a couple of times. You look for that. Then they show you post and go. They've been setting up a lot of stuff on that mirrored curl flat with that extra route, that post route. So definitely have to be wary of that. Let's talk their run

game for a bit. We'll start with some numbers. Their run game, not great. They're averaging 72 yards per game on the ground, fourth lowest in the league. They're minus 13.52 expected points per game. That's what their run game does for them right now. That's seventh worst in the league. They've put it on the ground four times.

3.6 yards per attempt. That's tied for the third lowest in the league. And part of it is they're banged up for a couple of reasons. You know, Anthony Costanzo, their left tackle, he hasn't played at Joe Hague. He was out against Houston. And if you want another sense of how their run game has struggled, they're averaging 7.21 yards to go on second down, meaning they're not getting a ton on first down. When they run the ball in first down, just 3.85 yards per play. Running it on first down.

By contrast, New England, 4.27 when they run it on first down. So there's your juxtaposition. You're worried about the Patriots run game. Oh, boy. The Colts are struggling. So it is a problem with the injuries. In terms of what they like to do, watch Quinton Nelson. He will lead you to the football.

Their favorite play, and I double-checked this with my buddy Mike Kist at Michael Kist NFL. He goes reporter for bleeding Green Nation. He just got done sort of checking out and breaking down what they do and what the Colts what they do what the Colts love to do on the ground and he confirmed it with me when he was studying these guys their favorite play by far is a quick little run to the right with Quinton Nelson their rookie left guard pulling from left to right they love pulling him they ran and I think

their first three run plays against Philly were that play they're like me back when I was playing Madden. I mean, not Madden. NCAA 2014, my favorite run play was, you know, I would go spread up tempo and I would have two run plays in my sort of script of plays. I would have halfback draw and I have a speed option. And I would just run those two running plays into the ground until you,

or the computer could stop me. And they're like that with that quick little pull with Quentin Nelson so find 56 he's the left guard he was arguably the best player in the draft last year he will lead you to the football so that's a quick look at what they do on the offensive side of the ball up next we're going to talk about what the Colts do defensively we've got some zone coverage beaters to talk about. But first, before we get into all of that, our new friends, our great new partners at Low-KI. I want to remind you about our great

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And the main thing that I noticed, and this jumped out immediately when I was breaking down their tape, was this. Cover two. This is an almost exclusive cover two defense in the secondary. I was amazed at how much they actually ran it. This is an almost exclusive cover two defense in the secondary. I was amazed at how much they actually ran it. I went back and looked at their game against Washington. I looked at their game against Houston.

I looked at their game against the Eagles. This is almost a predominantly cover two team. They were rotated at times. There were times when teams would motion from a two-by-two formation into a three-by-one, and they rotate into a cover three single high type look. But this is a cover two team. And if you come out in three-by-one, and they've got cover two called, they'll roll with it. And so you've got to have your cover two beaters ready. And we'll get into those in a minute. What was amazing was Washington, when they played Washington,

it seemed like the Redskins almost weren't ready for how much cover two they were going to face. So they were running a lot of single high coverage beaters, a lot of man coverage beaters. And then you see them flip the script into the second half. They clearly made the halftime adjustments because they come out in the second half. The offense gets clicking because they're running the cover two beaters,

which we're going to talk about. This is a cover two heavy team they do it so much you know with two deep safety type stuff and when you look at sort of the you know the defensive personnel you might understand why they're doing it this way i mean this is a a front that's got some weaknesses it's a linebacker core that look darius leonard is a fantastic young rookie, you know, but Najee Good and Anthony Walker, these are some, you know, these aren't the best of players, let's put it that way. And you've got some quarters in Nate Harrison and Clayton Gieters, you know, guys that might need some dedicated help over the top. And so you do that with Hooker and Moore. And Malik

Hooker is a player. Kenny Moore is, I mean, excuse me, Gieters is the safety. So it's Nate Harrison and Kenny Moore are their corners. Quincy Wilson gets in the mix as well. But it's Clayton Gieters and Malik Hooker. Again, it doesn't really change the calculus. They need dedicated safety help, and so they give it to them. And so I'm not surprised to see this roster go with a lot of cover too. Darius Leonard is a player.

If you're going to run the ball on this team, you're going to want to run to the edges and try to get away from him as much as you can. Let's look at some of the cover to beater type plays that you're going to want to see and that I'm going to want to see the Patriots have in their game plan. Four verticals is one of them. And a prime example of this is a play that I saw from Josh Rosen, you know, against the

Seattle Seahawks this week where they caught him in cover two. They ran four verticals out of that double Y wing. With two tight ends and a wing, you go four verticals to that side. Inside guy will occupy that safety. Outside guy has a chance to sort of bend outside and get upfield, get inside leverage against that outside corner. You know, Rosen made a great throw to Ricky Seals-Jones on that design against the Seahawks. That's something I would love to see with the Gronkowski and Hollister, provided Gronkowski can go. The main sort of cover two beater that I've seen teams used against them, the Eagles did it a ton. redskins in the second half they did it a ton texans did it was the flat seven smash combination that's where you have a flat route towards the

sideline to occupy that corner and then that corner route from the inside receiver usually that works away from that safety so that flat route occupies that cornerback keeps them down near the line of scrimmage and then you can get that corner out over the top of it the all these teams did it and one of the things they really did it with was you would go y iso so you would have your running back and your tight end alone to one side of the formation that y iso formation that three by one look which as i said the colts will stay in that you know cover two coverage if you you know show them that priest now so just imagine gronkowski running that corner route, White or Michel running that flat route. That's the combination I expect to see a ton of if the Patriots can go, because that gets you a

chance to get Gronkowski isolated on that safety with no help anywhere nearby. You know, if they're going to be willing to stay in sort of that cover two, you've got to be able to hit that route. You've got to be able to hit that to Rob Gronkowski. If they want to go cover two men underneath, then okay, he's going to have to work against a linebacker with safety help. But that's an advantageous type situation because he's initially working against a linebacker, and then you should be able to get that leverage advantage

working towards the outside. Even though it's going to be technically kind of like a double team, that's still a route they can hit. Some other stuff you can do. Digs. The dagger concept. Yeah, Brady just threw an interception on one, but if you heard Tom Brady on WEEI, as I broke down that play last night, without the benefit of the all 22 or things like that, I said, look, this is probably just an example of great tape study because that's not often what you see. You don't often see that inside corner carrying that seam route, then peel off and take the dig and tom brady said it was the first time he had seen anybody do that to him ever but it was something

the patriots do a lot and so there you go there's evidence that your boy can get it done off the broadcast tape i don't need this all 22 stuff i know what i'm talking about okay i kind of know what i'm talking about but anyway you can still run that dagger with that inside vertical route and then outside dig route. It's a perfect route to throw against cover two because again, that seam route occupies the safety. You come back in and you fill that void that's been vacated with that dig route. Now working away from that corner that's going to pass it off to the inside. So that's a great one to do. You can go Yankee concept as well. You know, I know yankees typically looked at as more of a cover you know one cover three type beer but you can get those little digs

those crossers in that space behind those linebackers and in front of those safeties now you know that's an area where you really want to attack so dig routes yankee you can do that mills is another good route combination to throw against this because, you get that dig out working behind those linebackers. That safety is going to try to split. That post route is going to try to split those safeties. So that's another good design to go to. That's some of the pass game stuff. Run game, main thing, outside runs.

Run to the edges. You look at, you know, what the Colts defense does. You know, let me just check in my notes here. Yeah, flat seven smash. You know, posts and stuff like that. You try to split those two safeties, you can do that. So that's past game stuff. Outside runs.

That's the way to do it. You know, they're pretty stout on the inside, especially with Leonard. You can go outside on them. You can go inside zone and look for cutbacks. You can go outside zone when you're flowing to the outside from the start. Crack toss is another one. Philly had a big game against the Colts on a crack toss type play. That's something we've seen with Trent Brown.

They like pulling Trent Brown in front of Sonny Michel, but then you get Hogan cracking inside or Edelman out. He's back cracking inside. So that's the kind of stuff I expect to run. Run to the edges. Try to split those safeties deep in the middle of the field. Bring your cover two beaters to bear. Flat seven smash being the main one. I want to see if he can go a lot of Gronkowski and Y. Iso with Michelle or White behind him working that flat seven smash combination. Up next, a few quick thoughts.

Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield, Mitchell Trubisky. Saw some really good things from those guys that I just want to talk about briefly. And I think it's time. I think it's time to tell the tale of the meaning behind the glorious victory title to the Victory Monday type podcast. I honestly don't remember if I've shared that story before. If I have, it's just new for the new listeners. Now you'll know. If it's new for everybody, then fantastic.

New for everybody. That's ahead with me, Mark Schofield, and Locked On Patriots. But before we do that, look, folks, Patriots play on Thursday night. Maybe you're feeling a little bit better about this team. Maybe you're feeling like, all right, I know where they stand right now. Because I know other people have been asking me, is it time to go in on the Patriots now? They just got this huge win. And the truth is, I don't know yet. But if you think you know, you got to check out MyBookie. Because who you're betting on, it's important. Where you're betting on, where you're betting, that's even more

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code LOCKEDON25. It's up to you guys, but I'd wait until after dinner and take the extra money. My bookie, you play, you win, you get paid. Mark Schofield back with you. Going to talk quickly, quickly, quickly about Josh Rosen, Mitchell Trubisky, Baker Mayfield, and the quickly about Josh Rosen, Mitchell Trubisky, Baker Mayfield,

and the myth behind the title, the glorious victory edition of Locked on Patriots. Josh Rosen, a couple words on him. I was blown away with his performance. I watched some of it live. I went back and I watched the All-22 on it. That guy made some big boy, big girl type throws, man. The vertical route he threw to Ricky Stills Jones was incredible. He had another throw to him on a deep over route, which is incredible.

The pocket movement from him was incredible, dare I say Brady-esque, which was something I even said in his pre-draft process. That was who he would have to emulate. He's not an athlete. He's not going to outrun people. He's not Lamar Jackson. But he moved around incredibly well. The stat line didn't show it, but I thought it was a fantastic

first start for him. Yeah, it's against Seattle, and Seattle's defense isn't what it used to be. Earl Thomas got hurt in that game. It was still a game filled with some big boy, big girl type throws. I was very impressed with Josh Rosen and his first start. Speaking of first starts, Baker Mayfield.

And Baker did some Baker things. That was a game I think Browns fans have a right to be angry about that they didn't win. There was a spot that didn't go their way. There was some stuff at the end that didn't go their way. Hugh Jackson, even after that spot, he might have wanted to go for it. I know you're in your own territory. It's your own 18-yard line.

But a couple of inches, you iced that game. Mayfield threw a pick six early, rebounded from that. I kind of don't agree with the decision he made near the end of regulation. I thought with one timeout left, you had a chance to check it down. It doesn't seem like they're that confident in their kicker, but he forced one that got picked off. He had some fumble issues there as well. So there were some mistakes, but Baker's still challenging the middle of the field,

moving in the pocket well. I was impressed with him. I wasn't blown away. I was more impressed with Rosen than Baker on Sunday. But still, two very young, talented, exciting quarterbacks that are just going to get better. Speaking of getting better, everybody in Chicago can back away from the ledge right now. As somebody that is chronicling Mitchell Trubisky this season,

you know, I do a piece. It comes out every Tuesday over at Pro Football Weekly, breaking down Trubisky. And, you know, I caught like I see it. I have no obvious investment or root in interest or anything like that when it comes to Trubisky. You know, he was my QB4. I would love to see him succeed because I'd love to see all quarterbacks succeed.

So I just kind of like go in surgical and, you know, clinical style and try to break it down. In the past couple of weeks, I pointed out some of the good, some of the bad. And it's interesting, similarly to when I wrote about Eli Manning at the beginning of the year. Bears fans just haven't seemed ready to buy in on this guy.

And with that defense, all they need is just capable quarterback play, and they could legitimately make a run in that NFC North and beyond with that kind of defense if they just get competent quarterback play. But they go down to Arizona last week, narrow victory. Trubisky missed some throws in that game. People were not happy. You actually saw people on Twitter saying it's time for Chase Daniel.

That's the mentality in Chicago around this kid right now. What does he do? Well, Matt Nagy says, look, the breakout, it's coming. It's a work in progress. It's a new offense. We're getting on the same page. We're almost there. Just be patient.

The breakout is coming, and it comes out six tutties. Six. One, two, three, four, five, six against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Now, this is a secondary. Tampa Bay's that is banged up, that is bad, that has made other quarterbacks

look like Mahomes, given the numbers that other quarterbacks are putting up against them. So there is an element to that. But Trubisky still had a very, very solid afternoon. Six touchdown passes is probably more than solid. I'm probably even undersounding it, but he did some very nice things. Nagy did some stuff schematically from post-wheel combinations

to even a bob-stit homage with a fly sweep with both Chase Daniel and Trubisky in the backfield and the shotgun waiting for the snap, which I thought was super creative. Huge day from Trubisky. Hope to see it continue so Bears fans can stop worrying about Trubisky and now again I honestly don't remember if I've shared this story before or not but since I was called out on it by my great friends over at Rockpile Report a fantastic fantastic Bills podcast you guys should check them out I've been on with with them a ton. And they do such great stuff over there.

And they're really good guys. Drew and Chris, they're at Rock Power Report on Twitter. And when I tweeted out the Glorious Victory episode early on Monday morning, they hit me back, and they hit me back with a Princess Pride gif. And it's that with, you keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. You know, trying to make fun of me calling the winner over the Dolphins glorious victory. And so I said, look, it's a tradition thing. And they said that they understood and that was fair, but it reminded me that there get more and more new listeners to

the show every week. I'm overjoyed at the numbers, but people might not understand the reason behind the glorious victory title for the, you know, victory podcasts. And again, I don't remember. I'm a man. I'm 41. I don't remember everything. So I don't know if I've shared this story before. And so here's what it is. It's an inside joke, basically to me, an homage to my days as a lawyer. Because when I started out, I was working for a young, energetic, shall we say, aggressive, shall we say, competitive partner at a firm, a trial lawyer. And he was very, like I said, just competitive is a nice way to put it. And whenever he tried a case and got a favorable result, let's put it that way.

So we were doing insurance defense stuff, so say our client was getting sued for a million dollars and the verdict came back and it was just sort of like $50,000 or whatever, and it was well below what we were willing to settle it for or something like that. He would write his closeout letter to send along with the final report, and then eventually get billed for it or whatever. And he would describe the trial, and then when he know get billed for whatever and he would describe the trial and then when he got near it was time to unveil what the result was and he would say in the letter and then what could what happened next can only be described as dot dot dot and again

this is like regular letter like standard font whatever and then in like this script like you know 72 point font he would write out so you've got script, like, you know, 72 point font, he would write out. So you've got the regular text saying, you know, and then what happened next can only be described as dot, dot, dot. And then the massive script font, a glorious victory. And so that's what, how he referred to his trials. And whenever he got a favorable result, he would say he would, no matter what it was, whether it was like a, you know, a verdict in his favor or just a verdict where you don't have to pay that much money, didn't matter. It was all a glorious victory. And I remember the first time I saw it, I was dying with laughter.

And to this day, you know, over a decade later, I still laugh just thinking about seeing, you know, some of these letters on our firm's letterhead, this huge script, Glorious Victory. And so when it came time to come up with the title for the victory shows, I was like, what's better than describing it as a glorious victory, even if it's just funny to me? Well, since I got called on it, I figured it was time to share. So that is the meaning behind the glorious victory title for the Victory Monday shows. Hopefully, we get another one this Friday, another glorious victory edition of Locked On Patriots. But I will be back tomorrow.

We do some crossover stuff. Matt Danley from SB Nation, the Colts website, he's going to come on and talk a little Indianapolis Colts. And then, boom, we're into Thursday, and it's already game day. Quick week here. Quick turnaround. I'll be here for you every step of the way. Until next time, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots.