Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots October 27, 2017 - Chargers Gameday Edition

Episode Date: October 27, 2017

Mark Schofield has your Gameday Edition of Locked On Patriots. He addresses listener questions over the Hightower injury, breaks down what he is expecting when the Patriots are on offense and defense, and has his predictions.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are Locked On Patriots, your daily podcast on the New England Patriots, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. If it's Friday, it's your game day edition of Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield here with you for Friday, October 27th. Last Friday of the month, last Friday of October, we are almost into November. It's amazing how fast the football season flies by each fall. It's crazy because, you know, working in the football media business now, you look forward to summertime because it gives you a little bit of a break, a little bit of a

opportunity to sort of step away because once the season starts, it's full on sprint from training camp all the way through to the draft and then the post-draft stuff. So it's basically August to June or so. It's just a sprint. And then you get July to kind of catch your breath. And then you're right back into it again. And it's just week after week after week, day after day after day. It's just coming and going and coming and going. But it's great. It's great to be here every day with you five days a week to talk about the New England Patriots. And as I said, it's your game day edition of the New England Patriots Locked On Patriots podcast. As I did last week, going to do some Q&A here at the outset before I get into my expectations for Sunday. And before I dive into that, show has moved.

We were hosted by Audioboom. Now we are over at Megaphone, part of the Panoply network. If you're listening to the show, you've made it over. Your subscription hasn't been screwed up. You found us, which is great. Great to hear that. We're going to be doing some great new things with our new partnership with Megaphone and Panoply. So we're really excited about that over at the podcast, the Locked On Podcast Network.

Also, again, a reminder, check out LockedOnPatriots.com. There's a piece up there right now. I think it's pretty good. Of course, I think it's pretty good because I wrote it. But breaking down the Chargers Pass rush, which of course we're going to get into here in a second. But let's dive into some Q&A. And frankly, there's only really one sort of issue to talk about in the Q&A before we dive into my expectations for Sunday, and that's this. Patriots linebacker Dante Hightower ruled out for the rest of the season with a torn chest muscle, a torn pectoral muscle. And the questions that I got early on this are worthy of deep discussion,

worthy of diving into. And I think that should be, and rightfully so, our sort of primary emphasis here this morning. You know, I got a question from Henry Elizondo on Twitter. He is at Henry, E-L-I-Z-O-N-D-O-9. Give him a follow on Twitter. Show him some love. Who's going to primarily step in and take Hightower's spot? Also got a question along similar lines from Kevin Kasem. He is the administrator of the Baltimore New England Patriots fan group on Facebook.

If you live in the mid-Atlantic area, if you live in the Baltimore area, this is a great group to be a part of. They get together every Sunday. Head over to Dog Watch Tavern in Fells Point and watch the games. It's like being at Gillette. My mom and dad head there as many times as they can for each Patriots game. They love it. It's a great atmosphere. Kevin does a great job getting the group together,

making it feel like you're back at Gillette. It's a tremendous group. It's a great resource for Pats fans in the Baltimore area. So check them out if you can. But Kevin hit me up on Facebook. His question is basically, how do you replace Hightower? Can you do it via trade? And so I think to start, we got to sort of set some parameters here and talk about Hightower's usage.

Because if you were to play word association for a second, if you were to sort of close your eyes and picture Dante Hightower, what do you picture? Likely you picture a guy playing middle linebacker, working as a thumper downhill against the run and stopping the run. Because that's sort of been the Dante Hightower that we've seen over the past couple of seasons. But starting with the playoffs last year, his role with this team shifted. And that can probably be best exemplified by a play in the Super Bowl. That sack and fumble of Matt Ryan where he came off the edge, hit the Atlanta quarterback,

forced a huge fumble at a critical moment in Super Bowl 51. And that role, that role as more of an edge defender, has continued into the 2017 season. Pro football focus. I talk about them a lot. They do incredible work charted in every single game, every player, every snap. How the Patriots have used

Hightower this season? He has lined up as an edge defender on 72.3% of the New England's defensive snaps. Compared to only 23.9% as your standard inside linebacker. You know, in week one against Kansas City.

Let's look at it this way. In the regular season of 2016, he was used as an edge defender on 26.2% of New England's defensive snaps. In the postseason, that number increased to 51.6. Now he's being used more than half the time on the edge. Week one against Kansas City, that number increased even more to a whopping 91.4% of the snaps. So over 90% of the time, Hightower was used on the edge to rush the passer. That's how they've been using him now.

They've been using him as an edge defender. So that's the sort of role now that we need to think about replacing. It's not so much your guy in the middle of the field, your Mike linebacker, your middle linebacker, your Mike Singletary type who's going to be a run stuffer. It's more edge defender.

And so the first name that sort of comes to mind is Shane McClellan. And this is similar to a question that I was asked last week by Dave Archibald at Dave Archie on Twitter. You know, I think that's where they turn first.

Now, they're not going to get him back probably for another week. But I think eventually Shea is going to be the guy that's going to be looked to to replace how they've been using Hightower so far in 2017. I think for our purposes here, looking forward to Sunday, you're going to see Cassius Marsh. Maybe they use Van Noy a little bit more on the edge, bring in a Landon Roberts

to sort of take the middle linebacker spot. But I think sort of long-term, again, looking at Hightower in his 2017 role at Shane McClellan, who's going to be sort of next guy up. In terms of Kevin's question, where he asks about, do they make a trade, do they make a move,

that would surprise me. That's often, New England always tries to address these internally with the guys that they have had in camp or are on the practice squad. Now there are some

potential names out there. A name that has been floated recently is Jonathan Casillas. He's part of that team that defeated the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX. He has some familiarity with what New England does defensively. He started five games for the Giants this year. He's got 23 tackles.

Giants look to be going nowhere fast. So that would be a name that you might consider if you were to go that route. But there are other issues with going the trade route. It's not like New England is sitting on a wealth of draft picks right now. I mean, they have the Eric Rowe trade where they've got a conditional pick that they need to part ways with. That's probably going to be a fourth-round pick.

They gave up fifth and seventh-round picks in 2018 in the trade to get Marsh. They gave up a 2019 sixth round pick in the deal that brought in Johnson Badamosi. You know, so it's not like they have a ton of picks to work with, but if push comes to shove and you do want to make a move,

I'm sure they can structure something with the Giants to bring in a Jonathan Casillas. So that would be a name to possibly consider. But I think in all likelihood what we're going to see is New England address the Hightower absence the way they usually address these, which is to use the guys they have right now. And another

guy to keep in mind is, even though Hightower has been used as sort of an edge guy, don't sleep on David Harris. Harris was on the field a fair amount Sunday night, and he looked good when he was on the field. And I talked about him in the Instant Reaction show. You know, there was a play where Atlanta dropped a pass. And this was actually tweeted out today by Matt Chatham. Where Harris has to stay on Julio Jones on a seam route. Rotates over to Devontae Freeman who catches a pass in the flat.

And holds him to a minimal gain. I mean, it's just one play. It's just one snapshot. But I think it can sort of highlight how they can use Harris to replace some of what they've lost with Hightower on the inside and then they can use the other guys on the edge. Shane McClellan eligible to come off injured reserve for their game November 12th against Denver.

So again, he'll be a few weeks away. So for our instant purposes, I think it's a mix of Van Noy and Marsh off the edges. Getting a Landon Roberts in the middle of the field with David Harris as well. So I think that's how they kind of introduce it and deal with it. Now, let's look more towards Sunday. And my expectations, what I expect to see when New England has the ball and when the Chargers have the ball.

And let's start with when the Patriots have the football. And again, we can revisit what we've been talking about the past couple of days. And that's that Chargers pass rush. Again, the numbers speak for themselves. Look, 23 sacks, fourth most in the National Football League. They're giving up only 185.4 passing yards per game. That's the fifth best in terms of a defensive viewpoint.

Only four teams have given up less yardage. Football outsiders are calling this the eighth best pass defense in the league. And it starts, as I broke down in yesterday's show, as I broke down in the article up on LockedOnPatriots.com, it starts with their pass rush. It starts with those two defensive ends,

those two edge guys, Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa. You know, but don't sleep on Chris McCain or Jeremiah Attitude, their backup defensive ends, because not only can they rush the passer when they're on the field, that's edge guys, they'll bring them on the field in their speed packages as well. You know, Tenny Palapoy, he's a defensive end too, but they put him down in the B gaps. They move him on the inside. They even line him up over center when they go

with that speed package. And so San Diego is going to be able to get after Tom Brady. Communication up front is going to be critical. But I still think that there are ways that New England can attack this Chargers defense and as I mentioned one way starts with the running game and look we've talked a lot about how Patriots are running the ball in first down they're having a good deal of a success running the ball in first down

Chargers run defense has struggled a bit they're giving up 140.6 yards per game on the ground, second most in the NFL. Only Baltimore has done worse. They're giving up 4.9 yards per carry, second most in the NFL. Only Jacksonville is worse. So I think New England's going to look to the running backs here.

I think they're going to look to establish the run, run the ball on first down. But when they look to pass, I still think there are ways that the Patriots can have success in the passing game. You know, look back at the Chargers game last week

against the Denver Broncos. It isn't like the Broncos and Trevor Simeon had a great deal of success. But when you look at their game script, the plays that they were calling, look. You see things like Tosser, a three-step concept with two slant routes. That's what New England does. They've done it for years. You see Curl Flat, another three-step concept.

Curl Space and another three-step concept. Curl spacing, another three-step concept. Slant flat, another three-step concept. Again, I chart every quarterback, every game, every throw, every pass concept they're running. And looking at everything that Denver tried to do against the Chargers, you see them using the quick game, using the three-step stuff to get the ball out of the quarterback's hand quickly. And let's not forget, whatever you want to say about this Chargers defense, whatever you want to say about what they were able to do against Trevor Simeon, he's not Tom

Brady. So that's one thing to look at. Another thing to look at, I've talked about football outsiders how they put together their metrics to study a defense they also break down what past defenses are doing against type of receiver and they look at it as against your number one receiver your number two receiver your tight end your running back okay and in those four categories the chargers again are a very good defense. They have the third best pass defense against team's number two wide receiver.

They have the 12th best pass defense against the team's number one wide receiver. They have the 11th best defense against the team's tight ends. Obviously, Gronk, not your average tight end, but still. Even against running backs, look, Chargers have the fifth best pass defense against running backs. But then there's another category, against other wide receivers. They're only the 24th best pass defense against, quote, other wide receivers.

So what does that tell me? Assuming that they treat Cooks and Hogan as wide receivers 1-2 or 2-1, assume those are the top two guys, look for Danny Amendola to have a big game Sunday. Look for him to be involved in the pass game. So those are some things I'm looking for when the Patriots have the football. I'm looking for the quick game. I'm looking for running.

I'm looking for running the ball on first down and establishing the run. And I'm looking to Danny Amendola because by those numbers, it looks like if there's a receiver that the Chargers struggle with in the past game, it's that third guy. So look for Danny Amendola to have a big game. Now let's talk about what to expect when the Chargers have the ball. And there are two guys that really worry me right now. Hunter Henry, their tight end, their second year tight end, and Melvin Gordon. And both of those guys, they worry me in the past game. Phillip Rivers has started to develop a great relationship with Henry.

His second year tight end. He's looking to him in clutch spots. You know, there's a prime example of that from the Chargers game a few weeks ago against the Oakland Raiders. They were down 16-14. They needed a big play late in the game to get into field goal range. And who did Rivers look for?

His second year tight end Hunter Henry on a deep out route. Big throw, big catch, big gain, and they're suddenly on the cusp of field goal range. A couple of runs from Melvin Gordon, field goal, game over, Chargers win. And I had this fear of Hunter Henry

even before the Hightower news. I do a video each week for Roto Grinders, a daily fantasy sports website, fantasy sports website, where I talk about one or two sort of scheme-based recommendations for fantasy football players. And now you might sort of poo-poo fantasy football analysis

being applied to the real X's and O's stuff. But I wouldn't sleep on it because some of the numbers, some of the data and things like that helps you also identify scheme trends in players that you should either look to or be worried about when thinking about the game on Sunday between the lines and hunter Henry was honestly one of my recommendations this week and this was before the Hightower news and one of the things that sort of stood out is you know you can look at the numbers that defenses put up

or have put up against them by position. The Patriots have given up five touchdowns to tight ends this year. If you want to look at it from a pure fantasy perspective, you can look at what defenses have surrendered in terms of fantasy points to each position each year. That data is out there. It's on profootballreference.com.

I'm looking at it right now. The Patriots have given up 14.9 points per game. That's on draft games to tight ends. Only 16s have given up more per game. And from a scheme standpoint, we've talked a little bit about how with Gilmore out, with Rowe out, Patriots have been playing some more defense,

some more zone defense in the secondary. We saw against Tampa Bay a lot of cover two, two high looks. Collinsworth is talking about it again, particularly late against Atlanta, a lot of two high looks. Collinsworth is talking about it again, particularly late against Atlanta. A lot of too high looks. One of the main weaknesses in a 2-2 coverage scheme where you have those too high safeties is that area

right between them. And one of the best ways to attack it is getting your tight end on a seam or a post route over the middle. So Hunter Henry scares me a bit. And then of course Melvin Gordon.

Talented running back. They're getting involved not just on the ground but in the pass game as well. you know to return to football outsiders and their sort of breakdown, their DVOA against a certain position, their defense against running backs right now, according to football outsiders, their defense against running backs in the passing game is the 29th ranked defense in the NFL.

Only three teams are worse. And that's kind of something that stunned me looking back to Sunday night against Atlanta. You have guys like Devontae Freeman and Tevin Coleman going up against a pass defense that is struggling against running backs as receivers, and you only throw it to them four times. I don't think Ken Wisenhunt is going to make the same mistake.

I think we're going to see Melvin Gordon being used as a receiver often, if not more, than he's being used as a running back. So those are two things from the Chargers offense that scare me right now. And then, of course, there's Phillip Rivers. And look, farther time is undefeated. We know this. Phillip Rivers, part of that 2004 quarterback class with Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. But again, as somebody that watches this guy every throw, every snap, every week,

I'm still impressed with how he's playing the position. And sure, it looks ugly. You know, every time I see him throw a pass, I'm reminded of this one track meet I had in high school. I was a sprinter in high school. I was a tiny kid in high school. I wasn't that big. I was maybe 5'10", 140, soaking wet.

But we had this one meet, and I remember our head coach, who was also my head football coach but he came over to me he said look Mark other team doesn't have any shot putters we've only got two shot putters but we can steal another point in this meet if you can throw the shot for us so I went out there and I basically threw it like a quarterback because I didn't know the technique. I didn't know how to do it. And it looked hideous.

It looked ugly. But all I had to do is make one throw and we'd get an extra point. And every time I see Phillip Rivers throw the ball, that's what I flash back to because I have to imagine that's how I looked throwing the shot. It's ugly. It's awkward. But for Rivers, it works.

And he's one of those examples that when we get into draft season and people ask me, how worried are you about mechanics? And generally speaking, I don't care how it looks as long as the ball gets where it needs to be, when it needs to be.

And that's what Phillip Rivers is still doing. So those are sort of my expectations and things that have me worried when the Chargers have the ball. Now let's get to some predictions. Right now over at Bovada, Patriots, 7.5 point favorites.

Over and under, 48.5. As always, if you're going to venture a play or two, go over to mybook 48.5. As always, if you're going to venture a play or two, go over to mybookie.ag. Check them out. Let them know I sent you. Use promo code LOCKEDON. 7.5 is kind of a big number.

Now, the Chargers often struggle when they come East. They did get a win when they came East to play the Giants. The Giants are a little bit different team. Patriots I think are a little bit better than the Giants right now. But 7.5 is still a big number. And for a team that just lost Dante Hightower,

that is still sort of trying to find itself, it's a big number. But I'm going to go out on a limb here, and I'm going to say that the Patriots are going to cover that. For all the stuff that I've been saying about the Chargers' pass rush, Hunter Henry, Melvin Gordon,

this just feels like one of those games where the Patriots are starting to figure it all out. They're starting to put it together. And so when you have the Chargers, they're coming east. One of those quote-unquote bio-rhythm games that people talk about. I like New England's chances here.

So I'm going to take New England. I'm going to give the points. That's how I'm going to roll in this game. Over-under, 48.5. I'm going to roll with the under on that, and here's why. Look at the weather right now. Scattered showers. 66.

It's going to be windy too it doesn't always set up well for the passing game so I think it's going to be more of a low scoring affair but I still like New England in it so that's what I'm doing, I'm giving the 7.5 I'm taking the under maybe you feel the same way, maybe you don't

either way, head to mybookie.ag to place your bets. You play, you win, you get paid. So there you have it everybody. Your Friday game day edition of Locked on Patriots. Hope you enjoyed it. Hope you learned something. Hope you had a little bit of fun. I'll be

back Sunday night with your reaction show and then we got a bye week and we're going to be doing some different stuff for Tuesday through Friday of next week. And then the following Monday, I got five different shows planned and I'll tell you a little bit about it. I'll just tease it a little bit. I'm going to be doing a little bit of narrative stuff here. I'm going to be telling some stories and it's not just going to be me. I've been interviewing people from across the football media world. Patriots media people, non-Patriots media people, smart people.

Putting together some stories. Going down memory lane a bit. So I'm really excited about that. I hope you all enjoy it as well. But like I said, I'll be back Sunday night with your instant reaction to the Chargers game, and then we'll roll into the bye week. We can all get healed up, rested up, get ready for the home stretch.

So until we talk on Sunday night, keep it locked right here, everybody, to me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots.