Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots October 29, 2018 - Gameday Edition

Episode Date: October 29, 2018

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Hello there everybody, welcome on into a game day edition of Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield sliding into the big chair on this Monday, October 29th, 2018. The New England Patriots traveling to upstate New York to take on the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football. We're going to begin with a look at some injury news and notes for this contest, as well as some expectations for what I'm watching tonight. Then a little bit later, we're going to have a little recap of yesterday's action in the National Football League. And in our final segment of the show, I'm going to recap my weekend because again, it's my show. Also, I'm going to have my prediction there as well. Before we dive into all of that, a reminder to

follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. Check out the work at places like InsideThePylon.com, Pro Football Weekly, The Score, Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio, Big Blue View, part of the SB Nation family of websites, Minnesota Rivals covering the Minnesota Gophers. Yeah, basically, look, I've said it before. If there's a website or an outlet that is covering football, chances are I'm doing some work for them. And I guess before we do anything, a bit of an apology, a bit of a mea culpa. I once had a very, very wise editor, Dave McCullough, over at Inside the Pile on tell me and tell all of us really, it's always best to

underperform and over deliver. Well, I failed to meet that standard this weekend. I promised you guys a Sunday morning tailgate show. And unfortunately, I did not meet that promise. You see, my Saturday was a little bit more jam-packed than I expected. Between the weight lifting competition, my first power lift and meet, dinner with the wife downtown in downtown D.C. to celebrate our 13th wedding anniversary, which is today. Happy anniversary, Rochelle. I know you will never hear this since you don't listen to the show. Maybe you're hearing it because you're upstairs right now

watching the Red Sox take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 5 of the World Series. Fingers crossed on that one. So maybe you will hear it anyway. And then, look so met up with some other family members down in dc um went to a couple different bars had some fun and let's just say i wasn't quite in game shape come sunday morning but look fantastic night was had by all and saturday evening in dc it was a confluence of events between the Saturday before Halloween. So we

get a lot of people out and about dressed up. I saw a guy dressed like a carton of milk. I thought that was the most interesting costume I saw. And it's homecoming weekend in Howard, which is an event. And so we were down in the U Street corridor, downtown in DC, sort of our old stomping ground, Logan Circle, where we used to live. We went to Le Diplomate for dinner. Fantastic. Discovered a brand new cheese, which if you're a fan of the soft cheeses, the breeze, the Lise de Bourgogne, it's fantastic. I went out first thing this morning, went to Whole Foods, bought like three of them first thing Sunday morning. It was just beautiful and delicious. I highly recommend it. And then hopped around to a different bar.

And D.C. was just hopping. So my apologies. You didn't get my last minute news and notes before the Sunday games. You didn't get DFS recommendations, which were probably going to fail. And you didn't get my college football recap because I didn't watch any college football yesterday.

On Saturday, excuse me, because I was busy. So an apology. I hope you will forgive me. Let's take a look now at the injury report. Patriots released their final injury report on Saturday. Players that were initially listed as out. Tight end Jacob Hollister with a hamstring. Cornerback Eric Rowe with a groin.

And center Brian Schwenke with a foot. Runnerback Sody Michel was listed as doubtful with a knee, but then he was downgraded on Sunday night. Report coming out on 7-20 that he had been downgraded to out. In addition, right tackle Marcus Cannon and defensive end Genio Grissom were also downgraded to out. Those players were listed as questionable on the last injury report. Also listed as questionable, offensive tackle Trent Brown, wide receiver Josh Gordon with a

hamstring, Trent Brown dealing with an ankle, Rob Gronkowski with an ankle and back, Dante Hightower with a knee, John Simon with a shoulder, and Dietrich Wise with an ankle and a knee injury. Gronkowski is expected to play, however, despite the questionable tag. His back injury isn't related to his previous surgery, so he's not at risk of a more serious injury. With Michelle's sideline, the Patriots might go pass heavy. So Gronkowski is expected to go. As for the Bills,

they have a number of players that were listed as questionable. A couple of players listed out though, Trent Murphy, defensive end with a knee, Josh Allen with his elbow injury, and running back Tywon Jones with a neck injury. LeSean McCoy was listed as questionable. Now, LeSean McDermott said we'll see on his status, but over at Roto-World,

they're reporting an Adam Schefter report that LeSean McCoy has cleared the concussion protocol. So you can expect him to go on Monday night. He's expected to play. He was a limited participant in all three practices this week. Now, as ESPN and Roto-World both point out, the Bills are one of the league's worst offenses. He's averaging just 54.8 yards from scrimmage

and no touchdowns over the first six weeks of the season. This is a bad offense. And let's sort of start with this Bills offense and what I'm expecting from the Patriots. I'm expecting the Patriots to go out and stop the run, stop LaShawn McCoy. I think that makes the most sense. I think people would probably agree with that. You want to make Derrick Anderson beat you. You don't want LaShawn McCoy to beat you. You want Derrick Anderson to beat you. Let's talk about this offense. They are last in the league as a passing offense in terms of yards per game. They're just putting up 129.4 yards per game as a pass and offense. Their yards per attempt is just 3.0. Again, dead last in the league.

Adjusted net yards per attempt, 1.9. Again, dead last in the league. And the closest team is Arizona, and they're 3.5. Their expected points contributed by pass and offense, minus 75.46. SAC percentage, 11.5. 11.5% SAC percentage. That's worst in the league. Quarterback rating as a team, 48.8.

Last in the league. Interception percentage as a team, 6%. Again, worst in the league. Number of interceptions thrown as a team, 12. Most in the league. Touchdown percentage. Percentage of touchdowns thrown when attempted to pass as a team, just 1.5%. Again, last in the league. They haven't, as a team, thrown for 1,000 yards yet.

This is a bad pass in offense. Some of it is the quarterback play. Yes, they've gotten bad performances from Nathan Peterman when he's been forced to play. Josh Allen was very up and down. He had one good game against Minnesota. But since then, it's kind of struggled now. He's hurt. Derek Anderson comes in.

He struggled last week alone. Now he'll have more practices under his belt. So you might see some improvement. But this is a bad passing offense. This is a bad passing offense. And so you expect to see it better. You expect to see the Patriots defense sell out against the run, stop LaShawn McCoy, and win the game. That's what I'm expecting to see from this team. I really expect them to shut down LaShawn McCoy.

Russian offense, look, the Bills, it's not even that much better what they've done running the ball. They're averaging 104.6 yards per game as a Russian offense. That is let's put it this way. So that is 17th best in the league.

So they're basically middle of the pack in yards per game as a Russian offense. But their run game, in terms of expected points contributed negative 17 it's not great yards per attempt 3.9 near the bottom you know there are only four other teams with worse with lower yards per attempt than they are this This is an anemic offense. And part of it is the quarterback play. Part of it is the weapons. But this is a bad offense. The Patriots should stop this offense. They should not have any problems with them. You know, if the Buffalo Bills are going to pull off an upset, it will be because of their defense

sort of generating some turnovers. And it is, as we switch to that side of the ball, a defense which has some players, has some athletes. It's got some guys that have given the Patriots trouble in the past. You look up front, Kyle Williams, their defensive tackle, usually lines as a nose. He has given them some problems. Trent Murphy's out. Shaq Lawson is an athletic guy off the edge. Jerry Hughes is an athletic guy off the edge. Harrison Phillips, Jordan Phillips, those guys give them a little boost in the interior when they substitute linebackers. You know, Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmonds, they're young. They're figuring out, but Edmonds in particular is very athletic. They've got a good corner in Tredavious White.

They've got two good safeties in Hyde and Poyer. You know, I think in terms of the pass game, you're going to want to try to get mismatches away from those guys. You know, maybe get Milano in mismatches against James White. Other receivers matched up against Ryan Lewis or Teron Johnson, which one of those corners is on the field, throw away from Tredavious White. You know, Hyde and Pirier can make some plays.

You might want to stay away from them in the pass game, but if you get some mismatched situations with Gronkowski, perhaps on a linebacker, you can be able to take advantage of those. Again, I expect the Patriots to be sort of pass-heavy, one with Michelle out at two. This front is fairly good. You know, you could look at this Bills defense if they do have a strength on the defensive side of the ball or as a team in particular.

It's probably this defense. And in terms of a run defense, this Bills unit, kind of middle of the pack. They're giving up 110.7 yards per game. So the run defense is okay. Passing defense, yards per game, what they're giving up, fairly good. They're giving up just 210 yards per game. That's fourth best in the league right now. So it's a pretty good pass defense in terms of yards given up.

Now expected points contributed, minus 22.57, which is 13th best in the league. So slightly above average there. But that's because they've got some athletes. They've got some guys that can play on that side of the ball. I don't think it's going to give Tom Brady too much of a problem. I think this is a team that they can score points on. And with how bad their offense is, you might not need to have a flawless game. You might not need to get a touchdown on every single drive

to win. And so we should feel pretty confident going into Monday night. Up next, we're going to talk a little bit about the action yesterday and a little bit later, my prediction as well as a recap of the rest of my weekend. Because again, it's my show. I get to do stuff like this. But first, friends, you're probably going to wonder, who should I bet on tonight? It's a big game. You seem confident, and I am fairly confident, but I'm even more confident than our friends over at MyBookie, because who you're betting on is just as important as who you're betting with. That's why I always tell people to go with our friends at MyBookie. Trust me, guys and girls, they are your best bet this season. They have been in business for years, they have great reviews online,

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MyBookie, M-Y-B-O-O-K-I-E. Don't forget to use promo code LOCKEDON when creating your account to claim that bonus. MyBookie, you play, you win, you get paid. Mark Schofield back with you now on this game day edition of Locked On Patriots. Monday, October 29th. Doing things just a little bit differently. You know, it's a Monday so we've got some games to talk about. Some stuff that went

down. We also got, you know, game two. I mean, excuse me, game five of the World Series. Currently the Red Sox have a 2-1 lead thanks to a Steve Pearce 2-run shot in the first in, and Dodgers clawed one back in the bottom of the first. Let's talk quickly about some of the games we saw on Sunday, and a big one and almost a pseudo-elimination game, you could say. You know, I talked earlier in the year about, you know, teams that dropped at 0-2.

The difference between a team going 4-4 and a team going 3-5 is also huge when it comes to the playoffs. Teams that get to 4-4 make the playoffs roughly 40% of the time or so. Teams that drop to 3-5 make the playoffs about 8% of the time. That's based on a stat that I saw during

this game between Philadelphia Eagles and the Jacksonville Jaguars. And it's the Eagles that come out with the victory 24-18. Carson Wentz, 21 of 30 for 286, three touchdowns, did have one interception, did have a fumble. Contributed with his legs, though. He kept one drive alive, in particular before halftime, alive with a 13-yard scramble on a third and 11 play that set the stage for a touchdown right before the half. That gave the Eagles sort of a 10-6 advantage at the break. They would go on to build that 24-18 win.

So a big win for Jacksonville. When you look at, I mean, excuse me, a big win for Philadelphia. When you look at Jacksonville, I don't think you could really pin this one on Blake Bortles, but you do wonder if they make a change anyway. The Bears with a win over the Jets, 24-10. Mitchell Trubisky, 16 of 29 for 222 touchdowns in that game one of which was 70 yard touchdown to tarik cohen a little screenplay just put together so well that play came together so well sam donald strutting a struggle you've seen some

rookie struggles here he's been an up and down over the past couple of weeks 14 of 29 for 153 and one touchdown you know did not have anception, but didn't put up huge numbers. You know, and just 5.3 yards per attempt. Quarterback rating of 75.8 and a QBR of 35.1. Not a fantastically great debut. They also struggled to run the ball. Jets just getting 57 yards on 24 rushing attempts. Not a good day for that offense.

But the Bears are entering a very fascinating stretch because they get this Jets game, then they get a Bills game next week, and then they get Detroit, Minnesota, Detroit. And if they can get themselves to sort of 5-3 and set the stage for that huge three-week stretch of divisional games, that is going to be critical for whether they're actually a playoff team, whether they're contenders or pretenders. So they needed to get that win.

They got it today. Bengals pulling out 37-34 over Tampa Bay. Staving off some Fitz magic. That's right, Ryan Fitzpatrick back in the game after James Winston was picked after throwing a pick six. Great play by Jesse Bates against a Haas route, against a Haas concept where he stepped in front of the seam route on a too high safety look coverage, stepped in front of it for the interception.

Big win for Cincinnati. That gets them to 5-3, sort of helping them keep pace a bit in that AFC North, which is just an interesting division to follow overall. You get in that division today a big win from the Steelers. You get themselves the 4-2-1. Ben Roethlisberger, 24-36 for 257 and two touchdowns. Carolina over Baltimore. Carolina has quietly positioned themselves as one of the better teams in the NFC.

Cam Newton had a fantastic day, 21-29 for 219, two touchdowns. Also had 10 carries for 52 yards and a touchdown. The most interesting play of that game for me was the play before halftime. Carolina was going to throw a Hail Mary, but Newton's been dealing with some shoulder injuries, some shoulder soreness. And so they brought Taylor Heineke, their backup quarterback, in to throw the Hail Mary. Now they have five seconds left or so.

Baltimore decides, look, we're not going to just play coverage. They actually blitz him. So he throws a check down to Greg Olson, who gets out of bounds, stops the clock with two seconds left, gets them into field goal range. Graham Gonneau drills a field goal to give them a 24-7 lead at the halftime break. Just a very heads-up play, and I actually wrote about that for my piece over at The Score, breaking down some of the best-designed plays

from the Sunday slate of action. Some other games to get to, Colts pulling out a win over the Raiders. That was one where the Colts got out to a 10-0 lead at the end of the first quarter, but then the Raiders actually had the halftime lead, but the Colts, they scored 21 and answered in the fourth quarter to take that 42-28 victory. Rams in an interesting one over the Packers.

Rams forcing a critical fumble and a kickoff return that helps set the stage for their victory, their two-point win over the Packers. Packers fall on 3-3 in one game. That's sort of getting underway right now is when we'll all be keeping an eye on that Minnesota-New Orleans game, currently tied 7-7 at the end of the first quarter. Up next, my prediction as well as some other thoughts on the weekend that was in the life of Mark Schofield.

That's ahead on this game day edition of Locked on Patriots. Mark Schofield back with you now on this game day edition of Locked on Patriots. And quickly now, just to close out this show with a little prediction, I said 34-20 on the crossover show, and I'm going to kind of stick with that. I think the Patriots will obviously put up some points. Buffalo, the offense has been bad. I think it's going to be one of those sort of like bend but don't break type games, which the Patriots usually do.

You're probably going to see a bunch of field goals from Buffalo. I don't think they're going to be putting up touchdowns or anything like that. But I think they, you know, call it together 20 points. It's one of those games that, you know, I get the feeling it's going to be one of those games where it never really feels in doubt or in question or anything like that, but it's not truly a blowout. I want to see this defense perform better than that, though. I would love to see them not even just pitch a shutout, but maybe hold them to 10 or under. I think that would be fantastic. But for a prediction, I'm going to go with 34 to

20. Now let's close it out. Just some quick stuff on your boy's first powerlifting competition, because I threw it out and maybe one or two of you out there might want to be interested in how it went down. I entered the KPC Halloween Havoc, which was literally at the gym around the corner from my house where I work out every day. And so I figured, look, you know, I might as well do it. And one of the trainers there is actually the current, you know, world champion in the strict curl. He's this guy, Bruce Devin Knox, fantastic powerlifter, fantastic trainer. And he kind of got me, you know, doing the strict curl stuff on a routine that, yeah, a program that one of his strict curl teammates has put together.

Because there are such things as powerlifting teams. Learning some stuff every day. So, you know, convinced me to go sign up. And I went. And it was a fascinating experience. My first powerlifting competition. And I went in with goals of hitting 127 and then 133 in my first and second attempts. And then depending on how I felt, I would see what I wanted to do in the third attempt.

And I hit those first two goals. And that strict curl at 133 set a new state record here in the state of Maryland for my aging weight class. And the 41 to 44 age class, the 190-pound weight class. So that was pretty cool. I got a little greedy. Bruce talked me into trying 140 on my third attempt, and I couldn't get it up. I got it up partway, but I couldn't turn it over, so I failed on that one. But still, won my age, my weight class, got a little metal, got some hardware for it,

set a state record in the process, and I was playing around on the rankings. And it turns out that in the master's division, so that's anybody from 40 to 49, that was the fourth best curl nationally in my weight class this year, which is pretty cool. And in just the open division, so any age, it was the 10th best curl in my weight class this year. So not too bad for a guy that is just doing it for the first time and whose technique is admittedly pretty poor, just kind of using raw brute strength. If I could refine my technique, I might get a little bit better. I've been asked by many, including my wife and my parents, who have been putting up with me, you know, trying to make sure I was making weight and, you know, cutting out snacking.

I'm somebody that would sit down in front of the TV with a block of cheese and, you know, some cured meat almost every night. But I had to cut that out, make sure I made that weight because I wanted to get in at 190 because I had a shot of breaking that record. So my wife and my parents have been putting up with me because they're angels over the past couple months. I kind of said, look, you're going to leave on a high note, one and done, maybe.

I don't know. We'll see. But it was fun. But now I'm going to take a week off from the gym, sort of let the muscles relax a bit. But it was a fantastic, fantastic experience. Huge shout out to Bruce for getting me into this and everybody over there for putting on a great event over at Rock Creek Sports Club.

It was a ton of fun. And I probably will be back at some point. But not a bad debut if I don't say so myself. That will do it for today's show. Just wanted to give you a quick update on that. I'll be back later tonight, probably, with hopefully a glorious victory edition of the Locked on Patriots podcast.

Until then, go Red Sox. And keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots.