Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots October 4, 2018 - Gameday Edition

Episode Date: October 4, 2018

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Locked On Patriots Take the field tonight. Take on the Indianapolis Colts at Gillette Stadium. That game going to be on Amazon Prime. That's how I'm going to be watching. Kind of excited to give that the old test drive. Before we dive into your game day fair here on Locked On Patriots, reminder to follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. Check out the work at places like InsideThePylon.com, Pro Football Weekly, The Score, Matt Waldman's rookie scouting portfolio. Big Blue View.

Part of the SB Nation family of websites. Got a piece up on Eli Manning and risk aversion. That's right. To know risk, we must first understand risk. A little Seinfeld reference for you friends here. Also, remember, we've got a Locked On Patriots Slack channel up and running. If you want an invite before tonight's game, please hit me up on Twitter at Mark Schofield or send me an email, mark.schofield at

insidethepylon.com. We will have the in-game commentary rolling over there in the Slack channel. And of course, regardless of how tonight's game turns out, there will be the take of the game from the conversation that we've got going on on the Locked on Patriots Slack channel.

So if you want to be invited, hit me up. Also, I want to give a shout out to Ian McDonald, longtime listener to the show, longtime friend to the show, and a member of the Locked on Patriots Slack channel, the aforementioned Locked on Patriots Slack channel. He had a fantastic little mini thread that he put in there on Wednesday,

breaking down Julian Edelman and what to expect from him, looking at separation, looking at receptions per game, looking at yards per game, looking at yards per target, yards per reception, targets per game, just some really interesting stat-based analysis that if you want to see stuff like that, hit me up for an invite. Also, you might be pretty wise there to follow Ian. You can follow him on Twitter. He is at Ian, I-A-N-C-M-A-C-D-O-N-A-L-D on the Twitter

machine. Let's dive into it. Obviously, Patriots taking the field tonight against the Indianapolis Colts, and we're going to start with the injury. We'll start with the Colts, and friends, this is a team that is extremely banged up. Both teams release in their final injury report on Wednesday afternoon. Here's the list of players who are out for the Colts. Tight end Jack Doyle. Tackle Denzel Good. Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton. Cornerback cornerback Kenny Moore, running back Marlon Mack, defensive tackle Hassan Ridgeway, and cornerback Quincy Wilson. They also have a number of players who are questionable. Tackle Anthony Costanzo, safety Clayton Gethers, cornerback Nate Harrison, center Ryan Kelly, linebacker Darius Leonard, and kicker Adam Vinatieri.

Three players came off their injury list. Tight end Eric Ebron, safety Malik Hooker, and linebacker Anthony Walker all are listed as a go. That is an extremely banged up team. We're going to talk about it a little bit more in a second here, but you have some key players out for the Colts. Obviously, T.Y. Hilton, Marlon Mack. You've got some key players on the defensive side of the ball as well.

When you're looking at, you know, Hassan Ridgway, he's out. Quincy Wilson, the corner, he's out. Also, some players manned up, including Darius Leonard, who we talked about a lot with Matt Dainley in yesterday's sort of crossover show. As for the Patriots, they got a little bit of good news. Players that returned to practice on Wednesday included Rob Gronkowski and Eric Rowe. Gronkowski listed with an ankle injury, Rowe with a groin injury. Players that are listed as questionable include Gronkowski, Eric Rowe, Adam Butler with a knee, Josh Gordonordon with a hamstring genio grissom with an ankle

jacob hollister with his chest injury landon roberts with a calf injury and danny shelton with his elbow injury two players were removed from the patriots injury list let adrian wattle the tackle with an illness and brandon king linebacker with his foot injury. Now, seeing this Colts injury list, as well as the Patriots injury list, has raised a rather interesting question in some circles of Patriots Nation. And I'll leave it to Evan Lazar of CLNS Media, who proposed the question for us. No disrespect to Indy, Evan tweeted, but I don't see the need to push it with Gronk on a short week.

That's a fascinating question, and I've actually spent some time tonight giving it a lot of thought. And the way I see it is this. Evan's right. Obviously, you need to win this game. Obviously, you cannot assume anything. Anything. When it comes to playing a football game.

The Colts could still come in here short-handed on a short week and win this game. Crazier things have happened. Obviously I think the Pats are favorites. And when you look at that injury list for the Indianapolis Colts, you have to think that the Patriots have a very good chance to win this game. But as Evan said in a later tweet, it's October.

If Gronk's ankle goes from not serious to serious because they push it in a week five Thursday night football game, then you'll lose more than just the number one seed. It's October. I think you hold him out. I think you rest him for the Chiefs game. I think you have to take sort of the long-term approach here.

If you rush him back on a short week, you might do more harm than good. And yes, he is a focal part of the offense. And yes, I've spent some time this week talking about how you might need him to go up against what this Indianapolis Colts defense does schematically. But you aren't winning the Super Bowl on Thursday night.

You're winning it down the stretch. You're winning it later on in the season. If you lose Gronkowski, then you lose a critical component of your offense. You get Julian Edelman back. You'll have Josh Gordon in the lineup. Looks like those guys, obviously Edelman is healthy. Gordon played last week and expect him to go this week. You can put up points with those guys.

You don't need to risk a certain injury or a potential injury to Rob Gronkowski here on Thursday night. I don't think it makes sense. I think you hold him out. Now, obviously there are some sort of financial considerations at play. We all remember that Gronkowski restructured his contract. He has playing incentives. He has catch incentives and yardage incentives and touchdown incentives. And missing a start against a defense that's banged up might make it harder for him to reach those.

But the goal is to win a Super Bowl. The goal is to get back to a Super Bowl. The goal is to win the division. There are team goals to keep in mind. And for that reason, I think the Patriots would be wise to take Gronkowski and to staple him to the bench tonight and try to win this game without him. Speaking of this game tonight, though,

you might be wondering, look, the Colts are so banged up. This might be a week to sort of try to make a few bucks off this. And I understand that. Believe me, I do. And people ask me again all the time for advice.

Should we bet on the Pats tonight. Should we bet on the Pats tonight? Should we bet on the Colts tonight? Should we take the over? What should we do? You should go to mybookie.com. That's my best piece of advice for you. Who you're betting on, it's important, but where you're betting, that's more important. That's why I always tell people to bet with my bookie. Trust me, guys, they're your best bet this season. I would only recommend a service to my listeners that's been good to me, In my bookie, they've been good to me. They have in-game, live betting, over-unders on fantasy points scored, and the most rewarding player perks in the business.

Now, they're slammed with new bettors, but they still want to give everybody the best service possible. If you can wait until after 7 p.m. Eastern, they'll give you an additional $25 free on deposits over $100. Join now, and my bookie will match your deposit dollar for dollar. Use promo code LOCKEDON to activate this offer. Visit MyBookie online today. That's M-Y-B-O-O-K-I-E.

Don't forget to use promo code LOCKEDON when creating your account to claim up to $1,000 in free play. But like I said, if you could wait, if you could be just a little bit patient, hold out until after 7 p.m. You'll get an extra $25 free by using promo code LOCKEDON25. It's up to you guys, but I'd wait until after dinner and take that extra cash. My bookie, you play, you win, you get paid. Up next, what I'm expecting, what I'm watching for tonight,

we're going to start with the Colts on offense. That's ahead with me, Mark Schofield, on this game day edition of Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield back with you now on this game day edition of Locked On Patriots. And we're going to start with the Colts offense, what I'm watching for, what I'm expecting when Indianapolis has the football. And I kind of want to view this through a prism of what have we learned? What have we learned about the Colts through their first four games? What have we learned about the Colts through our conversation with Matt Dainley from Stampede Blue? And let's start with Andrew Luck, number 12. It's my belief, having watched Luck over the years, having always been enamored with how he plays from a

technical, from a mechanical point of view. But Luck is and remains one of the better, more talented quarterbacks in the league. Now, as I've talked about this week, a lot has been made, a lot of hay has been made over Luck and his average depth of target. Questions about his arm. Questions about the offense. And now, as I posited, a lot of it was scheme-based. A lot of it was scheme-related. Obviously, Frank Reich, more of a West Coast, more of an even air-raid, at times, offensive system.

So, the throws are, by design, shorter. But I also did mention in that game against the Eagles, yes, it was played in the elements. There were some throws that I felt like Dalton, I mean, excuse me, well, there's a Freudian slip for you. There were some throws where I felt Dalton, I just did it again. There were some throws where I felt that Luck just didn't have it. The ball hung on throws to the boundary, out routes, comebacks. And so I asked Matt Dainley about it. And he pointed out that that's sometimes one of the more infuriating things about Luck is he sometimes relies on touch too much. And sometimes you'll see those passes sort of hand a bit

and it drives him and Colts fans batting. But I think if you look at Luck's game against the Houston Texans, you see that he's starting to push it downfield a little bit more. And as a result, Reich is opening up the offense a little bit. You're seeing some more vertical shots. You're seeing some deeper routes on plays. Now with Hilton out, with Hilton banged up and ruled out for this game, maybe the offense reverts back to more of the West Coast type of system we've seen over the first couple of weeks. They do a lot with those types of designs.

You'll see a lot of curl flat. You'll see a lot of slant flat. You'll see a lot of spot concept. They love spacing concepts, mirrored curl flat designs. I talked about that little post route they like to use a couple of times where they will show you that mirrored curl flat design, but that extra route in the tree out of the five receivers in the play will show you that mirrored curl flat design, but that extra route in the tree out of the five receivers in the play will show you that post, and then they'll even go post and go off of it.

So there are things that they will do to scheme some stuff open. There are things they will do to try to hit in the passing game. I think Luck is still a dangerous quarterback to go up against, and he is still a mobile quarterback as well. We know, traditionally speaking, mobile quarterbacks have given the Patriots some fits. What else have we learned about this offense? What was Matt's expression? Follow the money. The money being Quinton Nelson, their rookie left guard out of Notre Dame. And I kid you not, he might have been the best football player in last year's draft. The best pure football player.

Yeah, he didn't go right away, but he's a guard. People might not look at guards as being worthy of a first overall pick. Best overall player. They rely on him so much. You heard Matt talk about it. You heard me talk about it. They love going power and pulling him in front of the running back. So as Matt said, follow the money. When the Colts have the football,

the guy you want to be watching, believe it or not, yeah, they've got Andrew Luck, sure. But the guy I think you really want to focus on is Nelson, is number 56. And I'm sure the Patriots defense feels the same way. They're going to see what he does. If he pulls, they're going to expect run to that side. If he moves, they're going to expect screen pass.

Matt talked about that as well. So I'm going to have my eyes trained on 56. Because I'm pretty sure he's going to lead me to the football. He's going to lead my eyes to the football. And thereby, he's going to lead the Patriots to the football as well. Last guy I want to the football. He's going to lead my eyes to the football. And thereby, he's going to lead the Patriots to the football as well. Last guy I want to talk about. Last guy I'm curious to see is Naeem Hines. Very talented, talented athletic player that they've been using more and more

in the passing game. I think Hines can be a very good weapon for them. They love using him on Texas routes. They love using him. They'll put him wide. They'll do wheel routes with him as well. If they get into the red zone, he is going to be a guy to watch. With some of the weapons being out for them, including T.Y. Hilton, you don't

want to watch 21. If he's in the game, they're probably going to be looking to him at some point. Behind you is a very talented player. I'm very curious to see how the Patriots handle him. Is it a situation where we're going to see, because guys like Jack Doyle are out, where we see maybe a chunt on

him at times? Or do they stick with the linebackers on him? Is it going to be a Van Noy situation, a Roberts situation, a Hightower situation? So that's going to be something to watch as well. This offense obviously is talented. They have some players on that side of the ball.

They still have Andrew Luck. They're adjusting to the new scheme. There will be some things that they run that we saw in Super Bowl 52. Now it's a matter of can they execute it as well as the Eagles did with the injuries that they have and with the personnel that they have. And I think on a short weekend situation like this,

my guess, my hunch would be no. Up next, we're going to talk about the Colts on defense. Darius Leonard covered two beaters. Such fun like that as well as a prediction. But first, I want to remind everybody about our great new friends at Low-KI. You need some extra swag for game day? Low-KI has your back with their brand new game day collection. Now look, I've said it on this show. I'm not a big jewelry guy, not a big bracelet guy. Barely wear the Fitbit. But I've been rocking this Low-KI bracelet with Patriots game day

colors since I got my hands on it, and I love it. It comes in Patriots colors. It holds water from Mount Everest, the highest point on earth, and mud from the Dead Sea, the lowest point on earth. It is a daily reminder on your wrist to keep balance in your life between the highs and the lows that life sends your way. Since they're huge friends of the show, low-KI, they're offering you an exclusive discount of 25% off all game day collection bracelets. You're going to want to check this deal out. Just use the promo code PATRIOTS25 when checking out, and boom, you can thank me later.

Go to L-O-K-A-I.com and use that promo code PATRIOTS25 to take advantage of this amazing deal and give yourself that daily reminder to keep that balance in life between the highs and the lows. Up next, when the Patriots are on offense. That's ahead on this game day edition of Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield back with you now on this game day edition of Locked On Patriots. And a reminder to check out all the shows we have on the Locked On Podcast Network,

including Locked On NFL Draft. Trevor Sycamore, John Legger, they do a fantastic, fantastic job, as do the guys over at the Draft Network. You're going to want to check out that show. Obviously, Patriots fans are not too worried about the draft just yet, but they are going year-round updating their big board, giving you live looks at games. They're going to games left and right.

I'm excited. I'm going to get to see Trevor, I mean, not Trevor, Kyle Krabs at Grinding the Tape on Twitter. I'm going to see him. Maryland versusbs at GrindingTheTape on Twitter. I'm going to see him. Maryland versus Michigan State up in a couple of weeks out in College Park. I'm going to get a chance to see Brian Lewerke. Get my eyes on him.

Might he be somebody the Patriots are interested in? We'll see. I'm excited to see Kyle. Again, check out LockedOnNFLDraft when you get a chance. Let's talk for a minute here about the Colts defensively. Darius Leonard, as we talked about with Matt, the NFL's leading tackler right now. Not something that people expected when this season got underway

or when this draft got underway. But he is a leading tackler, and Matt raved about him in yesterday's show, and with good reason. 54 tackles can play sideline to sideline. He has basically become sort of the heart of this young defense. Him and Anthony Walker, two young linebackers. Now, they're both banged up,

so there's some questions about whether they're going to go. I'd expect them to go. You know, Leonard has an ankle that he's dealing with. Walker, he had a knee, but he's back to full participation, so it looks like he's definitely a go. Leonard's still listed as questionable. Obviously, the strength of this defense is sort of on the inside. Run game-wise, I think you can run to the edge on these guys.

I think you can go stretch. I think you can go outside zone. Look for some cutback lanes as well. I think running inside because of Walker, because to a certain extent Leonard, it's going to be a little bit tougher. In the run game, I'm expecting them to go to the edges. In the pass game, again, this is a

cover two team. This is a Cover 2 team. Period. Full stop. They'll show you three at times, but that's pretty much it. So bring out your Cover 2 beaters. The one I talked about a ton,

Flat 7 Smash. And if you want a look at how to beat Cover 2 and something I recently wrote, go to bigblueview.com. Check out the piece on Eli Manning and risk management that I wrote up over there. Because one of the more frustrating things

watching Manning against the Saints last week was that as that game went on, the Saints started rolling out more and more Cover 2. They were like, look, we don't need to drop a safety down to the box to stop Barkley in the run game. We can go too high. We can have safety, dedicated help over the top. We challenge you to challenge these windows.

We'll go four. We'll go five underneath zone defenders. If you want to check it down, go right ahead. There was a play where they actually dropped an eighth defender on a third and 11, and Eli Manning still threw a shallow crossing route with eight defenders downfield, making Odell Beckham have to run through eight defenders to pick up a first down. Not going to happen.

Meanwhile, there were some open shots downfield. It was a Mills concept. That post route was split the safeties. He didn't pull the trigger. So check out that piece if you want to see some cover two beaters in action. Pat Schumer had dialed some up. One of which he dialed was a flat seven smash route. He had an additional corner

route over the top of it. So he had two routes coming into that turkey hole. One shorter with Beckham and one more deep over the top with Russell Shepard and Manning checked it down. So you've got to throw those routes.

The fade smash concept, that's something the Patriots have done at times with Gronkowski in the slot. You show that little smoke route to the outside, slot receiver runs that fade route, the smoke route holds the corner, fade route works away from that corner to that side of the field. I think that's a route

you can throw. You can go Donald. You can go double post against these guys. Have those two post routes basically bracket in that safety. Try to get that guy on the inside, split in those safeties. That's a route you can throw. So have your cover two beaters. Obviously losing Gronkowski hurts because you can do a lot with him

sort of attacking cover two. But if they decide not to go with him, which I think is the right decision, as I've said, you can still attack this team. Look for Edelman doing some stuff in front of the safeties as well. You can go Haas wide juke, for example. Haas route, we've talked about it a lot on this show. Hitch on the outside, seam from the inside receiver. The Patriots love running that mirrored on both sides of the field

with that third receiver to one side or the other, running that sort of juke route, which is that option route over the middle. You can sit. You can turn it into a slant. They love Edelman on that. So that's something you can do to sort of attack that, especially if we see that Tampa 2 where that middle linebacker tries to drop between the safeties. Then you can throw in front of him.

That juke route is perfect to do that. In all, look, I think the Patriots, they're going to score points on this team. It's just a matter of can the defense do enough, get off the field on third downs and things like that. Putting it all together, this is a game that I think the Patriots win, and I think the Patriots sort of take care of business

and do it in somewhat impressive fashion. This game started, its line was first set at New England, giving 7.5. It's now moved to 10, probably because of the injuries. The over-under went from 55.5 down to 51.5. Vegas starting to think that Colts, they're banned up.

Patriots are going to win this going away. Not going to be a ton of points. I definitely agree with that first part. I think New England's going to win this by more than 10. So if you want to go to my bookie, there you go. As for the over-under, eh, maybe I'd still kind of go the over here,

even though it's dropping. I'm not so sure about that one. I am much more sure that the Patriots win this and win this going away. That will do it for your game day installment of Locked On Patriots. No matter what happens, I will be back, hopefully, for another glorious victory edition of the Locked On Patriots podcast. But either way, I will be back later tonight, breaking it all down.

Until then, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield, in Locked on Patriots.