Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots - October 4, 2019: Monster Keys to Week Five in DC

Episode Date: October 4, 2019

The New England Patriots are set to battle the Washington Redskins on Sunday at FedEx Field. joining host Mike D’Abate is Locked On Patriots’ favorite houseguest, Thomas Murphy who offers his thoughts on new Pats kicker Mike Nugent, and provides his ‘Monster Keys’ for a Patriots victory in our Nation’s Capital .  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hello to all you Foxborough faithful, and welcome to your It's Almost Game Day Friday edition of Locked On Patriots, your daily home for news, notes, analysis, and the occasional opinion on your six-time Super Bowl champions, the New England Patriots. Locked On Patriots, as always, is a part of the Locked On Podcast Network. Today's show is brought to you in part by Blinkist. And with Blinkist, you'll get unlimited access to read or listen to a massive library of condensed nonfiction books. All the books you want, all for one low price. Right now, for a limited time, Blinkist has a special offer just for our audience. Go to Blinkist.com slash Locked On, try it for free for seven days,

and save 25% off your new subscription. I am your host, Mike DeBate, and I cover the New England Patriots for FullPressCoverage.com, which is where you can always find my written work, and you can also reach out to me on Twitter at M-D-A-B-A-T-E-F-P-C, and be sure to follow Locked On Patriots on Twitter as well, at LO underscore Patriots. Friday editions are always a great time here on Locked On Patriots, and this week we'll definitely continue on in that great tradition. Joining me today is someone that is no stranger to Locked On Patriots. In fact, folks, I'm going to use another pop culture reference.

Brace yourselves for this. He's not just a friend of mine. He's a friend of ours. Tom Murphy of DieHardsBostonSportsFans.com is here to help me close out the week here on Locked On Patriots. Murph's monster keys to the game are

some of the most insightful game planning analysis you'll find anywhere in sports media. The man is a soothsayer and he has graciously allowed us to absorb his wisdom and counsel today and if there's a better way to head into the weekend folks i don't know where you'll find it so settle in and i hope that you enjoy today's show but before i welcome murph back to the hot seat today we start with the news of the day and the patriots have found this season's

replacement for steven gustowski the team announced announced on Thursday morning that they have signed kicker Mike Nugent, who has recently worked out for the team. He worked out for them on Wednesday. And Nugent was originally drafted by the Jets in the second round of the 2005 NFL draft out of the Ohio State University. He spent four seasons with the Jets before moving on to Arizona, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Chicago, Dallas, and Oakland. So he's been around the block, kicked in a lot of different locations.

Nugent has appeared in 164 regular season games. He's converted 81.4% of his field goal attempts, and he's.363 of.377 for extra points. That's good enough for 1,122 career points. Now, he's also played in five postseason contests. He's made seven of eight field goal attempts and all five extra points he's attempted. Last season with the Raiders, Nugent played three games,

converted all six field goal attempts, and went four of five on extra points. All-time at Gillette Stadium, he's nine of 11, and he's perfect in point after tries. And when I welcome Murfin in just a moment, he's going to let you know a very key statistic here that may give you a little

insight as to why the Patriots chose Nugent over the pool of kickers that they had brought in on Wednesday and even on Thursday morning. So the Patriots are welcoming in a new kicker. I'm going to welcome in our good friend Murph in just a moment to solve all your problems, answer all your questions. But first, I have a question for you. Yes, you, listening out there. Do your weekend

plans involve watching football? What a ridiculous question, right? Of course they do. At the end of a hard week, it's great to sit down, take some time off, and watch some football. Game-winning touchdowns on two-minute drives, running backs racing down the sidelines with no one to stop them. There's nothing else like the NFL. And no better way to make the games even more exciting than to bet on them. My bookies get the fastest payouts and better lines than any other sports book. Don't forget, where you're betting is just as important as who you're betting on. And mybookie.ag is the best in the business.

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That's promo code LOCKEDON. Visit MyBookie.ag today. You play, you win, you get paid with MyBookie. My guest today needs no introduction because you already know him well. He's a featured columnist for DieHardBostonSportsFans.com. He is the co-host of the Sports Infusion and One Patriots Place podcast, which, again, is truly one of the best casts in the region. It's hosted by he and another one of my great friends, Steve Balistrieri,

who you heard yesterday right here on Locked On Patriots. He is my main green man, the incomparable Thomas Murphy. Murph, thanks for joining me. Welcome back to your home away from home here on Locked On Patriots, my friend. It is. God, thank you. Anybody that's feeling bad about yourself, just come on Locked On, and Mike will change that in an instant.

What a great introduction, man. I really hope I can live up to the hype. You live up to it and then some, my friend, let me tell you. Well, I appreciate you taking my wife's phone call and getting me on here and making me feel good about myself. Oh, of course. We're all about helping everything out here. We're all about positivity.

We're always on to the next one. In New England, it's all about on to the next one, and we're always on to the next one. And the next one usually is pretty good. So this is a great way for me to close out the week. Selfishly, you know we love to talk about football. And this is definitely great. Our audience seems to, too.

We already have a hashtag here at Locked On Patriots. Hashtag Locked On Murph. So kind of make that viral, folks, this weekend as we head into the game against the Washington Redskins. But Murph, we start with the news of the day, my friend. And before we start breaking down the X's and O's and what to expect in the nation's capital this weekend, obviously the news of the week was Steven Gostowski. We had all speculated that Gostowski might be having some difficulty, whether it was mental, whether it was physical. Well, earlier this week we found out that it was indeed physical.

His hip was definitely bothering him. You could see some of the difficulties that he's had with extra points and with field goals this year. He was put on season-ending IR. We'll have to have season-ending hip surgery. It doesn't look like he's coming back and being brought off of IR at this point. It's looking like he'll be ready for 2020, but right now, you know, their Patriots are going to be without his services, and it's definitely a big loss.

And we saw guys brought in on Wednesday and on Thursday to work out. They ended up going with Mike Nugent, and Nugent's got a lot of experience in terms of the guys they brought in. He was probably the most experienced kicker they worked out. But in your monster keys, and I don't want to step on your toes here too much, but in your monster keys, you had a great insight as to one of the reasons why Nugent might have been the guy. And the floor is all yours, my friend.

Go ahead and let our listeners know some of your wisdom and counsel here in this department. Yeah, a lot of people over the past few years have brought up the fact that, you know, we need a new kicker, we need a new kicker. There's nobody out there that's better than Steven Gostkowski people, and you're, you know, you got your wish. But Mike Nugent is, as you said, somebody who is extremely qualified to walk in and do a good job. He's somebody that's been around the league for a very long time now. And he's made his stops here and there,

and usually the reason that he leaves is not because of big kicks missed. It's usually, you know, we're going to save a dime. And that's the way it happens. But if you're wondering why Nugent was given this shot before anybody else, it's his numbers that he puts up on grass. The man just does not move. I mean, does not miss when he's on grass. Guess what they play on in Miami, folks?

They play on grass in Miami. And Mike Nugent has never missed a kick at the Hard Rock, ever. And guess where the Super Bowl is being played this year, folks? If you forgot, it's in Miami at the Hard Rock. I can't believe they gave them a freaking, oh, God, this place is a dump. But Nugent has never missed there. So it's a really smart strategic move. It's almost like if you're a fantasy football player and you pick up somebody on the buy low

because they've been going up against some juggernaut defenses and they just look terrible. But you know, you look down the line and you see what they're playing in weeks 15, 16, and say, that's somebody you can use in the playoffs. Mike Nugent's a guy that you can use in the playoffs. Mike Nugent is a guy that has gotten it done in a place that has been very unhospitable to you over the years and to your kicker over the years. He's also a guy that's kicked in weather almost his entire life. In high school, in college, as you said, he went to Ohio State.

I do not put the the in there. I'm a Michigan guy. I don't do it. But he did go there, and I'm wondering how that's going to go over in the locker room with Tom this week. That's the story nobody's talking about. Exactly. You can't imagine that's going to gel well or mesh well.

But he's had experience with Ohio State guys before, so I'm sure they'll end up working it out. But that's a great point that you put about kicking in weather. You talk about the places that he's been, whether it be Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Chicago, Oakland. These are places that he does been, whether it be Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Chicago, Oakland. These are places that he does have to have, you know, experience, you know, kicking in weather. So I think it will be. Not just cold. It rains in other places.

You know, you get a lot. There's a lot of weather and there's a lot of bad turf. And when it's even on grass, this kid just, this man just freaking knocks it down. Yeah, he absolutely does. And the key about here with Miami, and that's, I think, a really interesting point, is the Patriots always seem to have that eye toward the future. And you know that this definitely factored into Bill Belichick's decision. Knowing that the Super Bowl is down there, knowing that the Patriots have had issues playing in Miami for any reason, I don't think it's just the Dolphins. I think it's more South Beach itself. That's always something to keep an eye on.

So with Nugent now in the fold, it'll be interesting to see. Some of the knock that I've been hearing on him the last couple of days is that Nugent doesn't have necessarily the most powerful leg in the world. And that has led people to speculation that Jake Bailey may handle the kickoffs or that the Patriots may go for it on fourth down a little bit more than we're used to seeing them do, knowing that if they have to line up for a field goal that's 50 or beyond, they may have to second guess that. Is this a possible concern for the New England Patriots, or do you look at Nugent as someone who can rise above that? No, I really don't.

He has limitations. He has a point of no return, and it is 50 yards, and I do think the Pats are going to be a little more aggressive when it comes to fourth down and where. I'm not sure if they're going to go for it on all of those, or it'll be one of those, well, let's take a penalty and pin them back inside their five-yard line. We'll see if we can do it that way. But, yeah, there's going to be a point in time where he has to do it,

but until Bill absolutely positively has to put him in that situation, I don't think he will because while he is accurate, while he does not miss kicks that are 40 and in, at 45 it gets a little iffy. At 50 it's almost a 50-50 shot. And that's not something the Patriots are probably going to do right now. I think, you know, it'll be more the latter than the former and going to kick for it.

Hopefully, I'm not sure of the numbers. I don't recall many 50-yarders that, you know, Bill asked Gus Kowski to make. Do you? No. I mean, it's really, it's not a situation where these guys are, I mean, the Patriots are adept at saying, yeah, you know what, we can put it in the hands of our kicker. If he's got to kick something beyond 50, beyond 60, then we're going to take that shot.

We're going to do that. Bill is very strategic when he looks at the football field. It's a battlefield to Bill Belichick. And I know that's really the cliche that a lot of people use to describe it. I mean, it's called the gridiron, for God's sake. I mean, we're not talking about something for the faint of heart. But Bill Belichick is very, very strategic when it comes to that. So I don't necessarily think he's going to be missing an element of his game there.

I think Belichick's notion is if he had to go for a fourth down and you're looking at a 50-plus yard field goal, I think whether Gostowski is back there or not not i think bill belichick's going for it or he may elect to hunt and pin these guys down inside you know the 10 yard line and make their make their offenses go against a very formidable defense don't forget that's a big factor as well and i know you touched upon that the patri' defense now is capable of shutting these offenses down, and that will be a factor in his decision-making as well. He knows his defense can hold up. This is not a fourth-and-two situation from Indianapolis years and years ago when Bill

Belichick infamously went for fourth-and-two, and people still talk about it to this day. It's because he had no confidence in his defense to be able to stop Peyton Manning, guys. That's why he did that. Not the same situation anymore. So, Murph, thanks for your wisdom and counsel there on the kicker game. But it's also a different situation than the Super Bowl last year, where we all famously heard the clip from the sideline of Brady saying, which goes to show what a great leader Tom Brady is. I tell him, Bill, let's just kick a 40-yarder.

It's a 40-yard field goal and the game's over. And I thought that was fantastic. That puts this into a little bit more of a gray area as to what Bill might want to do. But still at 40, I'm happy. Nugent is a good kicker. He's a veteran guy. He's somebody that handles pressure really well, and like I said, he's never missed in hard rock,

and if some schmuck like me on the street knows that, you know Bill knew it. Oh, absolutely. No question about it. If it's football-related and it's strategy-related, Bill Belichick knows about it. I think that's a very, very safe bet. I thought that was a great tidbit, and we'll see how Nugent works out. We'll see if he's a factor this week in the games, and I will get to that in just a second because I want to pick Murph's brain a little bit on the

monster keys that came out. Folks, to me, this is like the game plan. This is like the, I'm going to show my age here back in the day, but Murph, you remember when AAA used to give those trip ticks before when you used to go on road trips with the family, and you'd have to get these things, and actually they'd take the highlighter and they'd put the arrow, and they'd say, this is the route you have to go. I remember those being a little kid, my father picking those up when he'd take us up to New Hampshire or Maine or whatever.

This is what I like to call, I think Murph's keys are the triptych to the game because usually what they do is they take it, they break it down, they don't let you fumble through the map. Murph takes the highlighter, he puts the arrow and says, this is what you have to do. So, Murph, when the Patriots have the ball, knowing their struggles that they had on offense last week, and I don't want to get too much into what happened in the past.

We're all about the future again. Remember, my friend, what do you think the Patriots have to do when they have the ball to make sure that they're playing at their best against this Washington defense? Well, the first thing that they need to do, the first key that I cut this week was that the Patriots have to own the line of scrimmage. Last week, the Bills defense was playing in the Patriots' backfield the entire freaking

game. It was almost like the offensive line was in front of, was behind them instead of, you know, in front of them, keeping them from, keeping them from filling those gaps and giving guys like Sonny Michel any kind of room whatsoever. Own the line of scrimmage. Get off on your point of attack. Drive the fat folks in front of you backwards. That's your job.

That's my first key to this game. Absolutely. And I think that you're absolutely right on the money when it comes to that if the patriots are going to re-establish the running game and i thought they might try to do so against the buffalo bills i think they ran into a very stout front seven uh that was able to control that i think the recipe here for success is much greater with the washington defense they've been very porous uh they're a team that right now is in flux, so this may be exactly what the Patriots' offense needs to get back into the swing of things and be

able to re-establish that running game. And then if Tom Brady is able to get comfortable and the offensive line gives him protection and he can start picking his targets, he is going to pick apart that secondary as well. So this one could get ugly early. We're going to switch gears here very briefly to talk about when the Redskins have the ball. And when they do have the ball and they're trying to move the ball against this Patriots defense, that has been a very, very tall task for all four teams that the Pats have faced thus far. And this Washington offense is coming in probably in as much disarray as a team could possibly have you have your head coach Jay Gruden coming out and saying well we don't know what we're going to do

yet and that was on Tuesday and so far we haven't had any indication as to who might take snaps under center is it going to be the rookie Dwayne Haskins is Daniel Snyder going to win this battle is he going to get his rookie in this game is it it going to be Colt McCoy? I think that's where Gruden is probably leaning. Is it going to be Keenum, who has absolutely struggled beyond belief? If Washington has any hope of getting this game going, in my opinion, I think they need to get Adrian Peterson involved early, and he needs to be their focal point. I think a key to this also is going to be whether Dante Hightower plays in this game, because I think that was one of the reasons why Buffalo was able to move the ball so effectively against this defense last week, because Hightower wasn't there. His run defense, to me, is just always, always spot on, and no disrespect to Juwan Bentley,

who I think played a fairly good game, but there were times where he was a little bit out of position, and I think it allowed Gore to open up those scenes. Is there any chance that Washington has this week to move the ball if they get Peterson involved early, or is this Patriots defense just too tough? No, there is a chance. If Peterson is on his game, you never know what's going to happen. If they are able to spring him and control tempo of this game, it is going to be difficult.

We've seen problems with the Patriots scoring a lot of points in certain quarters of this season, early in this season, yes, I watched all the games, folks. I've seen the final scores. But still, there are times when that doesn't happen. And if the Redskins are able to control the tempo, control time of possession, that's what they're going to try to do anyway in my aspect, is do it in that manner. They're going to have to stack the box and pack it in there

and keep Peterson on the sideline. And I think it's paramount because if they do that, it opens up the big chunk plays that they've been able to get with their young rookie wide receiver. Why am I at a loss for his name at this point in time? Is it Terry Quinn or Paul Richardson? Yeah, Richardson. And they've been getting some chunk plays down the fields with that.

I'm not so afraid of that with this defensive backfield, but what does give me hesitation is always a team that can run the ball, and when AD is back there, that's always a concern. I don't care if he's 55 years old. He can pull off that big game and really make somebody else's life miserable. And I really agree with your point. It comes down to whether or not Donta Hightower is dressed and on the field and feeling himself because this defense, as good as it plays, as good as it was last week, is a completely different animal

when Donta Hightower is on the field. Folks, the last two Super Bowls that the Patriots lost, Donta Hightower was not on the field. Folks, the last two Super Bowls that the Patriots lost, Donta Hightower was not on the field. Yeah, exactly. And it really does lend into the fact that he is just such a big part of the game planning strategy there. He's the guy that is absolutely controlling things. He's letting people know where to be, where they need to be. Exactly. That green dot is always eternally his. So the Patriots were able to, I think, utilize a lot of the skill that they had in the defense last week

to be able to do that. But if there is an area that could have been, I don't want to say exposed, but that could have been slightly opened in terms of Washington's game planning and taking a look at what they could do, that may be one of them. So if you see them go to Adrian Peterson early and try to exploit that,

especially if Hightower's not in the lineup, yeah, then things could get a little interesting. So it'll be interesting to see what happens there. Terry McLaren, who I was thinking of. That's it. Very good. That's it. I'm sorry. No, and you had Richardson. No, that Very good. That's it. I'm sorry. No, you had Richardson. That was good.

And I actually didn't. I was doing my research while you were doing yours. We're very like-minded when it comes to that, my friend, I assure you. There you go. Yeah, definitely, definitely good stuff. So in terms of we broke down when the Patriots have the ball, we broke down when the Redskins have the ball, is there someone that you're looking at right now, Murph, that maybe not everybody is looking

at in this game, saying this person could be an X factor this weekend in terms of how the Patriots are going to either be successful or struggle, possibly, if there's a chance that that happens? Who do you like as an X factor in this game? Someone that might emerge from the pool of guys that are not usually deciding factors in a football game. Yeah, it's Rex Burkhead. Rex does really well out of the back. So does James White, but if things are going to go well this weekend, I think we're going to see a lot of two back sets i think we're going to see white and burkhead in the backfield at the same time just to keep

the opposing defense off balance um and i think rex burkhead because he catches the ball so they both do really but because he catches the ball out of the backfield so well, I think that's someplace that the Patriots can really exploit is the underneath, is the linebacking core of the Washington Redskins. That's their soft underbelly, and I think that's where they're going to be able to exploit things. That person, and I also think that, oh, God, really, Philip Dorsett moved into the slot role is going to also be able to do some real damage this week. If they can get the opponent's defense to bite on play action,

look for Dorsett to have a big game over the middle. Yeah, I agree with you on Dorsett. I think that's a very good point, especially if they do move to the slot. I think that gives him the opportunity to make things happen, especially if the Patriots try to make, you know, reestablish, I should say, the play action because we didn't see a whole lot of it last week. A lot of that is also going to be determined by Josh Gordon's status. We know that he has been on the injury report for the last couple of days with a knee injury.

It'll be interesting to see if he does indeed suit up. Indications are that it's probably about 50-50 at this point. Hopefully we'll see Josh Gordon in this, but if his knee is hurting and there's any type of issue that could make it worse if he plays on it, I would probably look for him to maybe be a scratch in this game, get healthy and be ready to go either for Thursday night against the Giants or down the road to have him healthy because that's very much a key point in what they'd like to do offensively.

So, Murph, we just about arrived at that time. We've talked about X-Factors, when the Pats have the ball, when the Redskins have the ball. Let us know. Please look into your Belichickian crystal ball, my friend, and let us know what we can expect to see on Sunday in our nation's capital. What's your game prediction for this one? My game prediction is just off the charts this week, Bud.

A lot of people are probably going to start rolling on the ground after what happened last week up in Buffalo. But, folks, I have Buffalo as one of the top five teams in the AFC right now. Washington, sad to say, is not one of the top five teams in the NFC. It is not 1984 anymore. And my prediction of this game is 34-9. Wow. Yeah, that's very, very interesting.

Yeah, I think I talked with Chris Russell, who hosts Locked On Redskins on the Locked On Podcast Network on Wednesday. We did our crossover show, and Chris and I were going back and forth about, thank you, yeah, Chris does an amazing, amazing job. And he was letting me know about some of his woes of covering the Redskins this year. And my question to him, as always, is, do we have a trap game brewing here? And he just went, no, no, we don't. And, you know, I'm always squeamish when things like that happen, because I always try to expect the unexpected and not be prepared for

anything that could possibly go wrong but in this circumstance I just I don't see it folks either my game prediction I actually gave it a little early this week on locked on Redskins on the crossover show that we had with Chris and I'm sticking with it I say 28 to 13 maybe a little bit more conservative than what Murph did, but we're pretty much like-minded. I think the Patriots' offense gets back on track this week. I think they will get reestablished play action. That's going to open up some seams for Brady to be able to maybe push the ball

down the field and try to see if he can get a big play going. But ultimately, I think catching the ball out of the backfield, I love your suggestion with Burkhead. I look for him and James White to both have big games in this. And I think the Patriots' defense is just a mismatch at this point for a Washington offense that is in disarray. They're going to have to be riding Adrian Peterson all game long. And Bill Belichick is so adept, folks,

at being able to take what your team does well and shut it down. And we've seen him do it over and over again. And I don't think the Redskins have another option other than just to ride Peterson and hope that he can break free. If he can for any reason, this one could get a little more interesting than people think it would because there is still skill on both sides of the ball, but I just think it's going to be tough for them to do that.

So that's my game prediction. Murph has his. I have mine. So you can take that to the bank. Look for Ben Watson in the end zone, folks. Absolutely. Another good key point. Benjamin Watson did return to practice yesterday, folks.

If you haven't heard the news already, he looks to be someone that will suit up for this game. And boy, do the Patriots need some production out of the tight end position. They have 77 yards receiving over four games between Ryan Izzo and Matt Lacoste, and there were times that Rob Gronkowski approached that mark at halftime, folks, of one game. So it's been a little while. 77 more yards than Rob Gronkowski has this season. Exactly.

Yep, that is true. That is very, very true. And, you know, we have to turn the page on Rob and definitely wish him well. But there is part of Pat's nation that looks at it and pines for the old days. But Benjamin Watson will fill some of that. He won't quite fill the shoes completely, but he will fill some of that. There's some stuff left in the tank with him, and I look for him to have a, maybe not a monster game, but I look for him to have a pretty good game in terms of receiving. Murph,

the time flies by when you're on this show, my friend. I did bill it as your home away from home, and really, I did that from the bottom of my heart. I always love having you on. This was a great way for us to end the week here on Locked On. If any of our listeners don't know where

to follow you by now, I don't know what to tell you. But just in case we have some newbies out there that haven't heard Murph on Locked On before, please, my friend, let everyone know where they can find your great work and where they can follow you on social media. Folks, you can follow me on social media at TeamMurph207. That's just on Twitter. I don't Snapchat.

I don't do FaceChat. None of that. You can read me over at diehardbostonsportsfans.com. And, of course, you can listen to me every week on One Patriot's Place. And, of course, if you're a movie buff, you can check out the Shays Bippy Mod Podcast. And you can find that too. Absolutely. Links are always on my Twitter handle.

Absolutely. absolutely links are always on my twitter handle absolutely and uh i can definitely give a rousing endorsement of that one as well because i join him on that seat every week or every other weekend and every other week some of the some of the greatest some of the greatest uh films of that genre as well and that is always a labor of love on behalf of the both of us so murph once again thank you your wisdom your counsel your counsel, your monster keys. You're all set for the game this week, folks, because of my good friend, my good green friend over here. And, again, I just love having him on. So I hope you enjoyed today's show as much as I did.

As for me, I will be back on Monday to recap Sunday's Pats Redskins matchup. I'll break it all down for you, and we'll see if I was right in my assessment, and we'll see if Murph was right as well. And there is a quick turnaround this week, folks. I'll start to look ahead to the Pats matchup at Gillette Stadium with Danny Dimes himself. Daniel Jones and the New York

football giants come to Gillette on Thursday night football. I will be speaking with some special guests along the way this week, too. And as always, make sure to join me each and every day on the Locked On Patriots podcast and subscribe to Locked On Patriots via your preferred podcast provider. Once again, I'm Mike DeBate. Thanks again to Thomas Murphy for his time and insight today. But most of all, I thank you so much for listening.

Have a great weekend, everybody. Enjoy the game on Sunday.