Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots October 5, 2017 - Tampa Bay Gameday Edition

Episode Date: October 5, 2017

Mark Schofield has his final thoughts before Thursday night. He talks about the Y-Cross concept and why we might see Rob Gronkowski on that play early and often, then dives into his expectations when the Patriots are on defense. Then, he has his "nightmare scenario" for tonight, as well as final predictions. Don't forget to check out our friends of the show, MyBookie.AG. http://record.webpartners.co/_DK_3VE4-6vsWqcfzuvZcQGNd7ZgqdRLk/1/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Talkspace.com slash BOOM. B-O-O-M. Hey, everybody. Mark Schofield from Locked On Patriots. And I just wanted to let you know that today's episode is brought to you by our great friends at mybookie.ag. You're Locked On Patriots, your daily podcast on the New England Patriots, part of the Locked On Podcast Network. Your team, every day. Good morning everybody and welcome to your game day edition of Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield

here with you in the big chair as always. It is Thursday. It is October 5th. It is time for Thursday Night Football. I'm going to do everything I can here. Last opportunity to talk to you before tonight's game. As always, check me out on Twitter. You can follow me on there at Mark Schofield. Here bringing you Patriots news, notes, and analysis five days a week. And tonight's a big one. Expectations for tonight, we're going to get into that a little bit. We're going to do some news and notes also at the outset. Some injury stuff coming out that's kind of critical for tonight's game. So we'll talk about that i'm also going to give you what i'm calling my nightmare scenario this is kind of what i'm thinking about would be sort of worst case scenario for tonight's game i'm going to talk

about that a little bit also we're going to do final predictions my thoughts on the game the line the over under as always shout out to partners, as you heard at the open. MyBookie.ag. Check them out. Use promo code LOCKEDON when you sign up. Let them know that I sent you. They will match dollar for dollar, 100% up to your first $1,000 deposit. So check that out.

Since I'm on a bit of a cold streak, maybe look elsewhere for some gambling advice this week. But again, I'll be giving you my thoughts on tonight's game in terms of the over, the under, and what to do with the points. Also, massive shout-out to my friend Travis Sekima

at TampaBayTrey on Twitter. He was yesterday's guest and an incredible one. Trevor is legit one of my favorite people in this industry. And as somebody that's relatively new to the football media world, as somebody that's relatively new to the podcasting world and all of this crazy stuff that I get to do now for a career, it's a joy to be able to work with guys like Trevor

and to be able to bring you this show. Part of the reason I love having guests like Trevor is that's the kind of stuff that you might not get anywhere else. To get a guy like Trevor come in and tell you his thoughts on Tampa Bay or guys like Matt Waldman or Dan Hattman or Bill Rossetti from Locked On Panthers. Again, as I've said before, it's a joy to do this. It's a joy to talk Patriots with you five days a week.

And so, again, thank you for listening. Thank you for subscribing. I'm going to actually give you guys a little bit of homework at the end of the show. Nothing big. Don't worry about it too much. Don't have any flashbacks to middle school or anything like that. Not going to be a pop quiz or anything, but just a little bit of homework. Maybe help take care of your boy here.

But let's get to some news and notes. And this being a short week, injuries, something big to look for. And injuries look like they might play a role. Injury report came out on Wednesday. Two names on the Patriots side of the ledger already ruled out. Rex Burkhead and Eric Rowe. With respect to Rex Burkhead, well, probably means we're going to be seeing a lot of James White. A lot of Deion Lewis.

Maybe, again, Mike Gilleslie if they can get the ground game going. Eric Rowe means, look, we're going to see Malcolm Butler. We're going to see Stephon Gilmore. We're going to see some Jonathan Jones. So that's kind of the quick read on that. Guys listed as questionable, Hightower, Gronkowski, Gilmore, and Cannon. I'd imagine those guys all go. On the Tampa Bay side, some names that really sort of stand out, and if you listened to the show with Trevor, you knew this was coming. Again, great insight from Trevor. Quan Alexander,

the linebacker, already ruled out for tonight. Levante David, another linebacker, and TJ Ward, a safety, doubtful for tonight's game. And Trevor told you that with respect to David, it's unlikely that he goes. Again, massive thanks to Trevor for coming on and chatting with us. But those have big time implications, those three guys, for Robert Gronkowski. Because those are the three names that Trevor said would probably be in the run and to try to contain Gronkowski if they could go. Now what you're going to see, you're going to see safety Chris Conte. You're going to see rookie linebacker Kendall Beckwith. But I think that's big for tonight's game.

The fact that those guys can't go. Let's dive in a little bit more to tonight's game and what I'm expecting for when both teams have the football. We'll start with when Tampa Bay has the football. And this is one of those situations, everybody, where I don't always have all the answers. I do a lot of research. I do a lot of study, and I do a lot of tape analysis. I do a lot of playbook study. I use my PFF Edge subscription,

which, again, you guys can get your hands on as well to try to break things down from a numbers perspective, but sometimes you just don't have the answers when you're on the outside looking in. And with respect to this Patriots defense, it's a matter of communication. Whatever it is that they have to sort out on the back end, they need to do it and they need to do it fast. I took you through some of the breakdowns that we saw against Carolina. I don't want to rehash them here.

But we're seeing guys running the wrong way. We're seeing guys run with motion. We're seeing two guys double receivers when one of them clearly should be covering somebody else. We're seeing receivers running free in the secondary. We're seeing screenplays where the pulling linemen in front don't even have anybody to hit. Imagine that for a second. When you're a lineman, if you've ever played

offensive line, if you've ever known somebody who's played offensive line, they will tell you that the most joy they get is usually when they get the chance to pull. Because now they're out in space. They're running downfield. And now they get to hit the little guys pull. Because now they're out in space. They're running downfield. And now they get to hit the little guys. You know, they're not going up against other defensive linemen. They're not going up against linebackers. They're hitting cornerbacks.

They're hitting safeties. You know, they're hitting guys that are 5'10", 205, not, you know, 6'2", 355. I mean, this is their moment to get out there, to stretch their legs a bit, to run in the sun, and kind of beat up on a little guy. So you get a feel for those guys that were pulled in front of Whitaker on that screenplay that didn't have anybody to hit because everybody was running with Christian McCaffrey and his pre-snap motion. Those guys that were pulled in front of Whitaker on that screenplay that didn't have anybody to hit. Because everybody was running with Christian McCaffrey and his pre-snap motion.

But these are the things that they have to figure out. And they have to figure it out fast. Why? Well, you heard my conversation with Trevor. They have an incredible amount of offensive firepower. Mike Evans is a tremendous wide receiver. We've barely talked about Mike Evans this week, but he is a tremendous talent at the wide receiver position.

We've barely talked about Chris Godwin, the rookie out of Penn State, another very talented player, whom if you saw that Rose Bowl last year between USC and Penn State, you know who Chris Godwin is. Trevor and I talked a lot about Adam Humphreys and how talented he is and how, as Trevor sort of made the case, he's an ideal New England Patriot. He just kind of fits into what they do at that slot position,

a guy that can give you those option routes, those pivot routes. The things that Julian Edelman runs so well, that Danny Amendola is running now. So he's a weapon there. Those two tight ends, O.G. Howard, Cameron Brate, incredibly talented guys. Howard, talk to anybody that was at last year's Senior Bowl O.J. Howard was far and beyond the most talented player there

no questions asked yes it's the Senior Bowl these aren't all of the guys in the draft class but by and far O.J. Howard was the clear standout that week. Just a tremendous talent. And he's basically tied into two for them because of the relationship between Cameron

Bray and Jameis Winston. And then you fold in the fact that they've still got Deshaun Jackson. Dangerous downfield threat. And they're getting Doug Martin back from his suspension. They're RB1. So there's a lot to be concerned about when Tampa Bay has the football.

And I'm more than anything worried about the fact that this is a copycat league. If I've watched the tape, if you've seen what Carolina did, imagine what the Tampa Bay offensive coaches have been thinking about this week. I'm worried about Tampa Bay rolling out some of the things we saw from Carolina. Sending Mike Evans in motion.

Seeing three or four Patriots throw up their hands and start running with Mike Evans when he goes across the formation and then a Chris Godwin or an Adam Humphreys just running free on the other side of the field. So these are the things that I'm worried about. It's a matter of communication.

I wish I had the answers for you. I don't. I hope the Patriots do. Let's take a moment here I want to remind everybody again our friends over at mybookie.ag let's talk about them for a little bit

and then we'll come back talk about what the Patriots might do offensively hey everybody Mark Schofield from Locked On Patriots ever since I've been in the podcast business, people have been coming to me for advice. Usually it's questions like this, hey, who do you got this weekend, Pats or Jets? What should I do in the Texans versus Raiders

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first thing I'm watching for in every single snap is, where's Gerald McCoy? We've talked a lot about him this week. Spent the better part of Tuesday's show talking about him and that tilt technique. Look for that. Look for that Thursday night early and often. You'll see it. It will stand out to you.

It'll seem awkward when you first notice it because he's basically a guy doing his own thing it looks like. But he'll have his shoulders diagonal to the line of scrimmage. But as we talked about with Tom Brady

against the Houston Texans, that sort of A-gap pressure, quick interior pressure in Brady's face, that's what frustrates him. Look for Tampa Bay to try to use McCoy to generate that A-gap pressure, get Brady off the spot, and maybe luck into some sacks, branching off of that when Brady has to try to move around in the pocket,

might run into a sack or two. Because, again, as we talked about with Trevor this week, outside of McCoy, Tampa Bay has struggled to generate sacks. They've struggled to generate consistent pressure on the quarterback. That might be the way that Tampa Bay schemes pressure tonight. Use McCoy, get quick pressure on the interior through either A-gap, using that tilt technique, force Brady to move quicker than he wants to, then maybe

he runs into something. Maybe he runs into a sack or two. Because if they get McCoy blocked up, then where does the pass rush come from? As Trevor said, he doesn't know. And Trevor knows his team better than anybody. So that's where my eyes are to start. How do they handle McCoy? How do they block that tilt technique? Are they going to struggle with it like the Giants did last week? Because if they struggle with it, then we start to worry.

But if they get him blocked up, there are going to be opportunities in the passing game for Tom Brady, and I think Rob Gronkowski, who I think is on track now to have a big night tonight. I think with the injuries we've seen, the ones we expect, the guys we expect to be out now, I think we're going to see a lot of Gronkowski. I think we're going to see him getting targets early and often, and something I want to talk about, some nerdy football stuff for a second, is something called the Y-cross concept.

And this is actually an air raid staple. You know, think Lavelle Edwards and those old Brigham Young University teams back in the 80s. More recently, guys like Mike Leach at Washington State. Cliff Clainsbury, former Patriots quarterback, now head coach over at Texas Tech. Air raid offenses. Y-cross is sort of one of the staples of what those teams do. And I can hear you wondering right now but mark i thought i thought you told us a couple weeks ago new england's an arnott perkins team they're not an air raid team nobody runs the air raid in the nfl you told us that the three passing concepts

were west coast aren't perkins like the Patriots and Eric Correale? Well, as I said then, there's always some overlap. And teams from all these passing trees, these concept trees, they borrow stuff from other coaches. When they see something that works, they'll fold it in. Again, this is a copycat league. If you're a coach and you see something that works, you're not doing your job if you don't steal that idea. So there's always some overlap. And at its core, this Y cross concept is a three-receiver pass pattern. You get one receiver on the backside by himself, and he runs a vertical route.

And that's usually, if not always, the first thing the quarterback looks at. He will do what's called peak the vertical, where he takes a quick look at that vertical route on the backside away from the main part of the play. And if he sees man coverage or a favorable matchup, if the defensive back falls down, that's his first look. See if he can get a cheap play deep down the field early. Then he comes to his primary read, which is this wide cross.

And it's simply a cross and route from the wide receiver. In New England's case, it's going to be Gronkowski. Other air raid teams, maybe they go three wide. More often than not, it might be a slot guy, but it's still the same sort of concept. Just sort of a crossing route, pushing upfield to about 10 yards, and then diagonally getting depth as you go. And then the third receiver is aligned on the same side as that wide cross receiver starts from, and he just runs a deep curl.

Now this is something that New England has done this year and years past with Gronkowski, and they did it against Houston. And they can do it in a number of different ways. I mean, you can dress it up, break it down, make it look exotic with five receivers, make it look more pedestrian with a run heavy, run jumbo formation. But at its core, it's still the same thing, a vertical route, a crossing route, and a curl. Against Houston, they did it with Brady under center using 21 offensive personnel. So you've got a running back and a fullback in James

Devlin on the field, and they'll go play action. But then you've got Brandon Cooks on the outside to the left, and he'll run the vertical route. You've got Gronkowski lined up as the tight end on the right side of the offensive line, and he runs your Y cross, that crossing route, and he gets matched up against the linebacker. And then Chris Hogan on the same side as Gronkowski, he runs the deep curl. And what does Brady do? You look first at that go route. Receiver there is playing well off Brandon Cooks, worried about getting beat deep.

So then you come to Gronkowski, who's matched up against a linebacker, that crossing route. It's a great route to run against man coverage. He uses his size initially to get a jam on the defender, and then just runs away from him. Or he could do it sort of out of a three-receiver set using shotgun.

They did it against Houston later. And again, it's the same thing. A vertical route on the left from Brandon Cooks. That's covered because they're worried about getting beaten deep. Gronkowski running that crossing route, just running away from a linebacker because he can do that.

And then Hogan again on that deep curl on the backside. I would expect to see this wide cross concept again early and often tonight. Because you're going to see Rob Gronkowski perhaps matched up against a rookie linebacker

in Kendall Beckwith or a safety in Chris Conte. So there's going to be opportunities for him on this concept to make plays. So that's what I'm looking for when New England has the football. I'm looking for this wide cross concept. I'd expect to see a lot of this given the weaknesses at linebacker right now with Quan Alexander being out. when New England has the football. I'm looking for this wide cross concept. I'd expect to see a lot of this,

given the weaknesses at linebacker right now, with Quan Alexander being out, Levante David being doubtful, and now T.J. Ward, who you know T.J. Ward. You know who he is, but now he's doubtful as well. So I'd expect to see Rob Gronkowski on cross and routes early and often in this game. I promised you my nightmare scenario and here it is.

We've talked a lot over the past week or so now about the Patriots past defense. Did you know their run defense is struggling as well? That's one of those things that's kind of fallen under the radar a bit. Through four games, they've given up 533, excuse me, 531 yards on the ground.

That is seventh most in the National Football League. They've given up three Russian touchdowns. That's tied for fifth most in the National Football League. They have given up 5.1 yards per Russian attempt. That is second most in the National Football League. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars at 5.1 have given up more. And in terms of yards per game

given up, again seventh most in the NFL. They have given up 132.8 yards on the ground. Now we get Doug Martin back off of his suspension. You can see where I'm headed with this. My nightmare scenario for tonight is that Doug Martin comes back and gets going against this run defense, which by the numbers has struggled. He rips off some chunk runs early, and what does that set up?

The play action stuff, the throwback stuff, all the designs that Tampa Bay used last week that we broke down. They mix in some of the stuff that the Panthers used, working off play-action. Defense is so worried now about Doug Martin gashing them that they give up some big plays

downfield in the play-action passing game. So that's my nightmare scenario. Seeing Doug Martin get going early and often, that's what I'm most afraid of tonight. Let's get to the final prediction here. And big number right now. Current line on Bovada is New England favored by six,

which is basically New England by nine. Vegas usually treats home teams by giving them a three-point bump. And so if you consider that factor, this is basically New England by nine. But the official number is six, and I still, looking at this, looking at everything we've seen,

looking at Tampa Bay's weapons, I know they've got injuries on defense right now, and that will benefit New England. But I'm looking at that minus six. I'm taking Tampa Bay in the points. I think New England pulls this out, but I think it's going to be close. Everything we've seen to date from this team so far

tells me this game's going to be close. Last word, over- is 55 and a half. That's a big number. On a short week, I'm thinking here, I'm taking the under. Again, you make these bets, trust me, don't trust me. Whatever you do, mybookie.ag. Use promo code LOCKEDON when you sign up. Get yourself that bonus. Let them know I sent you. Finally, I tease this. A little bit of homework for all my faithful listeners here. And that's simply this.

Tell a friend about the show. Tell a friend that you know likes the Patriots or you know that likes football. Let them know about the show. Let them know it's out there. I love each and every one of you that listen to this every day. I'm so overjoyed at the response I've gotten to this show So spread the love a bit Help your boy out Tell a friend about Locked On Patriots

Tell them about what I'm doing here It would mean the world to me I'll be back later tonight With some instant reaction and analysis Of what we see tonight Of what we see from our New England Patriots, hopefully for a glorious victory edition of Locked on Patriots. Either way,

winner loss or even tie, because those are possible. I will be back later tonight. So until then, my friends, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Scofield, in Locked on Patriots.

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