Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - LOCKED ON PATRIOTS - Sept. 9, 2016 - How Jimmy Garoppolo and the Pats can beat the Cardinals

Episode Date: September 9, 2016

The Boston Herald's Jeff Howe breaks down Jimmy Garoppolo's checklist of things to accomplish to play well in his first career start, as well as other things the Patriots need to do well to beat the Cardinals. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Friday of week one the patriots are visiting the cardinals on sunday night the nfl football season is in full swing now with the broncos and panthers having kicked off the 2016 season the patriots are just a couple days away from doing it themselves in a matchup of conference finalists jimmy garoppolo's first career start and i want to get into the matchups and the reasons why or the things the patriots need to do to start off the regular season with a victory against a really good team on the road a game that's been as anticipated as just about any on the schedule since it was released a few months back for plenty plenty of exciting reasons i mean this game is a total toss-up the patriots are going to have

to play well in a lot of areas we're going to learn a ton about them a ton about jimmy garoppolo so let's get to it this podcast is sponsored by mybookie.net let's start off the matchups and the guy that everybody wants to know about jimmy garoppolo uh clearly the the man of the month uh taking over for tom brady and he needs to play well that's stating the obvious but here's what he needs to do to play well number one he needs to handle the pass rush well Garoppolo played well throughout the summer of course he had some dips those were well highlighted but when he did struggle the biggest reason was because he couldn't feel the pass rush started to panic put his head down and stared at the rush more than his receivers down the fields there were also times when he settled on his check down

target a little too often usually it was a running back it was donald brown at the start of camp brown's gone of course james white has been his favorite passing down back the patriots starting passing down back so he's a guy that the cardinals defenses would be smart to key on especially when they're rushing after Garoppolo now Garoppolo is going to need some help he can't have a performance where him and Julian Edelman aren't on the same page on third and short or third and medium and have them not know which route Edelman is running or supposed to run these are going to be some of the things that at some point are going to hurt the Patriots

in the first month of the season because the chemistry isn't there the way that it obviously would be with Tom Brady and guys like Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski. The Cardinals in their base defense are going to rush five guys usually more often than not. They don't get creative with their blitzes. They're usually, Garoppolo shouldn't have a problem identifying who is coming. And with that, he's going to need help from his offensive linemen. Nate Solder is going out there on Sunday night with a hamstring

injury. I'd be surprised if it limited him too much, but a guy who relies on footwork as much as Solder does, you don't want him kind of favoring a hamstring, especially when he's matched up against Chandler Jones. Left guard is going to be Joe Tooney. The center is David Andrews. The projected starting right guard is Shaq Mason, but he's going to play with a club on his broken right hand. If he doesn't play well, you could see Jonathan Cooper get the start. We don't know anything about Jonathan Cooper, at least in the media, because we haven't seen him practice in pads. He has, but behind closed doors. And then Marcus Cannon was good for the most part this summer, but took a step backward in the preseason finale against the Giants. So what are we going to see from Marcus Cannon? Are we going to see the guy who played pretty well for the better part of three preseason games? Or are we going to see the Marcus Cannon who was run through time and again

in 2015 and then had issues in the preseason finale? So a huge game for him because he's expected to be the full-time starter in Sebastian Vollmer's absence in 2016. Garoppolo needs those guys to step up for him. They're going to get help from a tight end. They might get help, or of course they're going to get help from the running backs. And in the running game, James Devlin is going to be a guy that they're going to rely upon almost as a sixth offensive lineman, a guy they refer to as the best fullback in the NFL. They're going to need him to come to play and get nasty and open holes for LeGarrette Blount and James White and Brandon Bolden and maybe DJ Foster. But it's going to come down to, can those guys block the Cardinals front

five, let's call them in base, or a front four in their sub packages? Again, when they're in sub, they usually only rush four. They don't blitz too often. They don't get too creative. They're very athletic in their back seven or their back six, if you want to call it that, in the base. So they don't, again, they're not going to have a problem figuring out who's going where. So it's up to the linemen to win one-on-one battles, and it's going to be up to Jimmy Garoppolo to know where the weak points are, to know where the rush could be coming from, and to know where the weak points are to know where the rush

could be coming from and to know where he can step up into the pocket where his receivers will be downfield he's been able to do that on plenty of occasions when he's playing well he still zips it into the second and third levels of the defense with confidence with accuracy and he needs to rely on Julian Edelman Rob Gronkowskiowski, Danny Amendola, Chris Hogan, James White, Martellus Bennett, maybe Malcolm Mitchell, all of those guys to go out there and make plays for him. He's got enough help around him that he can go out and have success against this Cardinals defense. Yes, they're good. Yes, they're fast. And he's going to want to avoid certain matchups, particularly Patrick Peterson, Tyron Matthew, and, they're fast. And he's going to want to avoid certain matchups,

particularly Patrick Peterson, Tyron Matthew, and Deion Buchanan. Those three guys can cover with the best of them. Now, Peterson took a step back last year. You have to expect the best from Peterson every single week. Maybe he is going to continue some sort of decline for who knows what reason. I don't know. I don't know. I can't pretend I watched every Cardinals game last year, but Patrick Peterson certainly wasn't Patrick Peterson of just about every other year of his career last year. Tyron Matthews outstanding. He's as good of a safety or a nickel corner, whatever you want to call Tyron Matthew. He's outstanding. And Daniel Buchanan is one of the best coverage linebackers in the NFL. A guy who is basically converted from a safety to a linebacker spot. They use him somewhat similarly, at least when he's not rushing, as the way the Patriots like

to use Jamie Collins. But I wouldn't compare the two players. It's just in terms of athleticism, you're going to see things that Buchanan will do on Sunday night that make you say, wow. So you got to wonder what they're going to do with their matchups. Now, Peterson is their best cornerback. Does that mean they want him on Julian Edelman? Or do they want Tyron Matthew because of the body build, the area of the field where they can probably expect Edelman to line up? Do they want Matthew to shadow Edelman? Is that something the Cardinals are going to be willing to do? Do they want Deion Buchanan on Rob Gronkowski? Could they use Patrick Peterson because he's a bigger corner to shadow Rob Gronkowski? So there's going to be some interesting matchups,

definitely a chess match type of situation where the Patriots have to figure it out. Where can Jimmy Garoppolo expose the Cardinals defense from there you can throw on those guys there are absolutely some question marks in that defense especially at the other cornerback spot where Brandon Williams is expected to get the start you've got to throw on him you've got to rely on Chris Hogan to beat Brandon Williams if that's where the matchup is now've got to rely on Chris Hogan to beat Brandon Williams, if that's where the matchup is. Now, let's say Patrick Peterson gets Hogan, because again, taller corner against a slightly bigger receiver, then you're going to get out of Danny Amendola

and Julian Edelman. If that's the case, then you've got a good situation where probably Amendola, you know, if they're going to put Peterson on H hogan you would think it's going to be buchanan on gronk and matthew on edelman uh if edelman winds up on anybody other than peterson or matthew you throw you look at him a hundred percent of the time that's your first option if gronk gets anybody other than peterson or buchanan same right there you make sure he is one of your first two reads you want to get him the ball as quickly as possible. So it's important for Garoppolo to diagnose those matchups before the snap too, because if the pocket breaks down and Garoppolo has to look down the field, he needs to know, all right, Daylon Buchanan's on Rob Gronkowski, Tyron Matthew is on Danny Amendola, and Patrick Peterson is on Julian Edelman. All right, where am I going to

step up and throw the ball to? All right, it's Brandon Williams and Chris Hogan. Bang, I'm going there. It's another safety against Martellus Bennett. Bang, I'm going in that direction. It's James White against any linebacker not named Dayum Buchanan. Bang, I'm going to James White. The Cardinals are an aggressive defense. They're going to try to target the ball. I'm going to James White the Cardinals are an aggressive defense they're going to try to target the ball they're going to anticipate Jimmy Garoppolo's throws because that's the way they're coached to play so if Garoppolo has to step up into the pocket and all of a sudden he panics a little bit don't be surprised to see some of the guys in the back of that defense jumping in front of Garoppolo's favorite checkdowns.

James White, for instance. Again, if he is not the fastest guy in the world, they trust him to do the right thing and be in the right place, but he's not a physical specimen in the way that Deion Lewis could be, or a Kevin Falk, or a Danny Woodhead, or Shane Vereen. Some of the better passing down backs the Patriots have had in their time but James White's going to be out there so you just don't want a situation where all right Garoppolo's feeling the rush he stares at the lineman he kind of panics a little bit steps up into the pocket after looking at the turf or looking at a defensive lineman real quick and then saying all right I know where James White's going to be I'm just going to throw it to a spot you can't allow that to happen because that's when a linebacker or a safety is going to be able to jump that throw and potentially

turn it into a dangerous situation for the Patriots. So that's what Garoppolo is looking at. Take advantage of the matchups. Don't make any stupid plays and keep your head downfield. If you know who is where and who's on your receiver, then you can make some plays, even as the pocket breaks down. And I don't think, I mean, bottom line, you can't put Jimmy Garoppolo in a huge hole. And I think the Patriots defense is built to not allow something like that to happen. Even if the offense struggles a bit out of the gate, the defense is good enough. But Garoppolo has to compliment them. He can't just say, all right, you know, I'm going to make a stupid mistake here,

give the Cardinals a short field, and then all of a sudden, let's say a 3-0 deficit or a 7-0 deficit turns into 10-0 or 14-0, because then you put Garoppolo in a situation where he is going to have to feel like he's going to need to go out there and win the game. And then you could be looking at a really long night for the Patriots. If he keeps it close, plays smart, and the defense is able to do their thing on a reasonable field, then you're in a good situation. You're going to be able to come away from that game with a win, or you're at least going to put yourself in position to win the game in the fourth quarter. I think the Patriots have enough to hang with the Cardinals. I think they have enough to beat the Cardinals. It's just such a question mark because we don't know how Garoppolo is going to

handle this atmosphere in a jacked up environment. The Cardinals have Super Bowl aspirations. It's their first home game, their season opener. The crowd's going to be nuts. The defense added Chandler Jones and Robert Kimdiche. They've added more pass rushing punch to a unit that did a ton in the back end in the second level last year and was only really missing those attackers up front. So they're juiced up. They've got a good quarterback in Carson Palmer. They've got a solid running back in David Johnson. And then you've got Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, and Michael Floyd,

who are as good of a three receiver combination as you're probably going to see in the NFL. So there's a lot of reason to be optimistic if you're a Cardinals fan and if you're a Cardinals player. So it's going to be a really tough environment, and that's the unknown there. That's why we don't know what Jimmy Garoppolo is going to be able to do. I think there's a lot of reason to trust the Patriots defense, but again, he's got to be able to handle it well. This podcast is sponsored by mybookie.net. Football season's here. Like I said, it's in full swing. It's already begun, and you've got to get in the action and play like the pros at mybookie.net. It's the most

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844-722-2387. Join the thousands of online players who are already playing. Only the biggest. Only the best. Only at MyBookie. Sign up today. There are some other things the Patriots are going to need to do

to help garoppolo to help themselves however you want to phrase it start with the running game they're going to have to do something now this wasn't a formidable running attack last year especially when deon lewis went down and after lewis went or the 11 games the patriots played without deon lewis that includes that that week six game against the Jets. It includes two games in the playoffs and all the regular season games after the Lewis went down against the Redskins with the torn ACL. The Patriots averaged 67 yards per game in those 11 contests without Deion Lewis. To put that in perspective, the team that ranked 32nd overall last season were the Lions and they had 83 yards per game. So you're talking about being 16 yards worse if that was a full season projection or a full season ranking than the worst rushing offense in the NFL last year.

Clearly, there were times when they abandoned the run. Obviously, the offensive line didn't help the cause, but the Patriots brought back their three guys that finished last season or I mean that basically were you know Blunt didn't finish last season but were there options after Lewis went down like Eric Blunt's probably going to be the top guy between the tackles James White is going to be the top guy in passing downs and I would expect Brandon Bolden to be the top backup in both areas, although I think you can mix and match a little bit. DJ Foster is an exciting talent. I'm not sure how much playing time he's going to get, if any, in the regular season opener. Might be a guy that they bring along a little more slowly.

Defensively, you got to get some pressure. You got to ask the defense to help you win this game, and they're clearly talented enough to do it with their pass rush, with their coverage assignments. Let's start with the pass rush where these guys were lights out in the preseason. Now, you guys know if you follow my work, I track pressures, quarterback hits, obviously sacks and all that other stuff. And in the preseason, now this is just Dante Hightower, Jamie Collins, Jabal Sheard, Trey Flowers, Chris Long, Malcolm Brown, Alan Branch, Anthony Johnson and Barkevious Mingo

basically the guys who are going to go out there and be your regular contributors even if on a rotational basis those are going to be your guys in the front seven if you combine their production in the preseason they totaled five and a half sacks five quarterback hits 17 pressures four forced fumbles two fumble recoveries three batted passes and forced offensive players to commit five penalties these guys were on fire in the preseason and that's over the course of four games but you know they didn't play a full game at any point in in time really so this was a dominant performance out of their front seven and it's got to continue they've got to harass carson palmer he's a guy who is absolutely capable of having a dud not been the biggest game player over the course of his career hasn't had a lot of late

season success now i know we're in september right now but this is going to be a late season type of atmosphere a lot of pressure on carson palmer and the cardinals down in arizona right now to take the next step to make that leap into a legitimate Super Bowl contender this year and I don't care if Tom Brady's out there or not they're looking at this Patriots team coming in there I mean the Cardinals know the Patriots well that's where they won the Super Bowl two years ago everybody knows the Patriots well but this is a measuring stick game so is Carson Palmer gonna have too much pressure on him can he fold He can if you get after him. Jabal Sheard was not on the injury report this week. He should be full go, but even still,

you've got Trey Flowers and Chris Long who are going to add to that pass rush. Dante Hightower and Jamie Collins, this is their defense. You've got Malcolm Brown playing really well. Alan Branch will be out there. Anthony Johnson in pass rush situations. So there's a lot to like about the way the Patriots can get after it. And then I want to go back into the secondary here, where the Patriots returned their top six defensive backs from a season ago and added Cyrus Jones, their top pick in the draft. And more recently this week, they got Eric Rowe from the Eagles. He's not going to play much, if at all, but he'll help down the line.

But just more specifically for this game I want to get into some potential matchups that the defense could be looking at because I think there's a couple really different ways the Patriots could go about this you know we're looking at the nickel here whether it's three cornerbacks and two safeties or three safeties and two cornerbacks based on the matchups the Patriots used last season, you put Logan Ryan on Larry Fitzgerald because Ryan usually took the bigger guys. You're talking Andre Johnson, talking to Marius Thomas. That was kind of his bread and butter. DeAndre Hopkins from the Texans, you know, the taller receivers. That was Logan Ryan's thing. So you're probably sticking Ryan again on Larry

Fitzgerald. That leaves Malcolm Butler, I would think, with John Brown because he's a faster guy, a T.Y. Hilton, an Emmanuel Sanders, an Antonio Brown type. Maybe not as good as, he's better than Hilton probably. You know what, let's say he's not as good as those three, but still, you put Butler on him and then you've got Michael Floyd for your third cornerback I would make it Cyrus Jones but I could see how it would be Justin Coleman because he's got a little more length than Jones Floyd's a taller receiver either way you know you're looking at a an interesting matchup there that allows you to put Patrick Chung on a tight end of course that's where he shines but uh in terms of you know the Cardinals don't have a tight end who's going to really make you say oh you got to cover him got to make sure he's locked down and Jermaine Gresham

is basically their best tight end uh Jermaine Gresham shouldn't have more than a couple catches in this game unless something goes completely haywire so that leaves Devin McCourty to play over the top I mean the Cardinals are going to push it down the field McCourty is has got you know you can't just say all right it's going to be Logan Ryan and McCourty on Fitzgerald because John Brown's got deep speed and then you can't leave Michael Floyd on either a rookie cornerback making his NFL debut in Cyrus Jones or Justin Coleman, who struggled at times in the preseason. So there's going to be a way to kind of figure that all out. And then you've got Jamie Collins and Dante Hightower in the middle. And that gives you an extra couple of guys in the box in case they want to run with David Johnson or, you know, they'll throw it to David Johnson, too.

I mean, I saw a quote, the Cardinals believe David Johnson could be the best pass catching back in the NFL this season. So he's clearly involved in their in their game plan and that type of capacity. So you want to make sure that the box is well stacked in the way that the Cardinals want to use Johnson to hurt you. Probably is a fourth type of receiver, even if it's just out of the backfields the other option you could go with is you put Patrick Chung on John Brown the way you did for a half against T.Y. Hilton in the Colts last year I don't know if that's a great matchup but it's just what I'm you know hear me out as to why I'm thinking this so if you put Chung on John Brown, that gives you the chance to use the three safety, two cornerback nickel package. So you put Logan Ryan then on Larry Fitzgerald,

and then you, or you can put Malcolm, it really doesn't matter, Butler on Fitzgerald, Ryan on Fitzgerald, and then you've got the other one on Michael Floyd. Either matchup is, you know, well-suited, or I don't want to say well-suited, but I guess six to one, half a dozen to the other. But then you've got Jamie Collins on a tight end, and then you've got Dante Hightower spying David Johnson. And that gives you the ability to put both Devin McCourty and Deron Harmon over the top to try to spy any two matchups they see fit, protect the deep ball, give you a chance to kind of attack the ball a little bit better with two guys who are good at forcing turnovers, who

are, you know, good at squaring up to the line in the third level of the defense, and then going and getting the football. So two interesting types of ways I think the Patriots could attack the Cardinals. Bill Belichick's had a long time to think about this one, but you know, that's going to be a fun chess match to watch. Just see what he thinks of his secondary as they go out there and play complimentary football with the front seven that again should get after the Cardinals passing game and Carson Palmer. You know, they have a good offensive line but this Patriots defense they can beat you and they're going to blitz they're going to come after you they're going to disguise there are ways that they can really just about everybody on who can play in the

defensive edge can drop into coverage or at least has the experience of dropping into coverage where they're going to try to confuse Carson Palmer make him hold on to the ball just a second longer, give the defensive backs a chance to pounce. So a lot going on there. Clearly, I think they're going to have to force a couple turnovers to help Jimmy Garoppolo with a short field or two and give the Patriots a chance to score, you know, some bonus points there. You got, when you get the ball like that on a short field, you got to know what to do with it. This could be a game where I think the winner could score in the low to mid 20s and come away with a victory in this game. I wouldn't be shocked if it were a 24-23, a 23-21, a 27-24, a 27-21 type of game tight throughout. And again, the team that makes the mistake is going to be the

one that goes home a loser so there's a lot to like a lot of fun matchups a lot of uncertainty and a lot going on in this regular season opener between the Patriots and Cardinals I wrote in the paper this week this is uh my Super Bowl preview I know the teams are going to be different because the quarterback is going to be different when Tom Brady comes back. But I think these are probably, you know, you got the best team in the NFC and the Cardinals. The Patriots are the best team in the NFL, in my opinion. Maybe not in the first four weeks, but certainly once Brady comes back. And one last thing before I sign off here, make sure you check out the Boston Herald today on Friday I wrote a feature about DJ Foster the bond that he has had with his sister since she died seven years ago it's just a tremendous family that

Foster comes from a really inspiring kid I think there are a lot of fans who have been receptive to Foster's game this summer he's an player, but he's got a really interesting, inspiring story that I think you're going to want to check out too. So everybody enjoy the games this weekend. Have fun. This is Locked on Patriots. I'm Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald. I'll see you guys on Monday. Thank you. and America has faced far more challenging periods and emerged strong. Leading policymakers, Bush Institute experts, and respected journalists take on this debate.

Read about it at bushcenter.org slash catalyst.