Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots September 14, 2018 - Gameday Edition

Episode Date: September 14, 2018

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hello everybody, welcome into Lockdown Patriots for Friday, September 14th, 2018, your game day edition of Lockdown Patriots. Going to do everything we can to get you ready for Sunday's huge, huge, huge, huge AFC Championship game rematch between the Jacksonville Jaguars and your New England Patriots. Before we dive in, though, a reminder to follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. Check out the work at places like InsideThePylon.com where I'm a head writer. Pro Football Weekly where I'm a scheme analyst. The Score NFL where I'm a featured NFL columnist and contributor. You can also check out the work, Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio, mattwaldmanrsp.com, Big Blue View Nation, part of

the SB Nation family of networks. Did a piece that just went up recently about Dak Prescott and what we saw from him in week one. So look, if there's a website that's covering football, chances are they got me doing some work for them. As I said, loaded show. We're going to get you your game day stuff. What I'm expecting, what I'm watching for when the Patriots have the ball. We're going to start with what I'm watching for when the Jags have the ball. And a little bit later, we're going to have my predictions that are sure to go wrong for the weekend

as well as what I'm watching this weekend. Huge NFL and college slate of games. And as you know, unless you're a new listener, in which case, welcome aboard. Happy to have you here. Sunday morning tailgate. I will have a show for you Sunday morning. Last minute news and notes type stuff as well as some fantasy stuff for you. Fantasy guys and girls out there as well as a recap of some college football action.

There are some interesting, interesting, interesting games this weekend. But let's dive into it, okay? Let's just sink our teeth right into this matchup. And Bill Belichick sort of said it best when he was addressing the media at his press conference. His remarks to the media on Wednesday. Not much has changed.

Not a lot has changed between where these two teams were in the AFC championship game and where these teams are right now. And those of you who have been long-time listeners might remember that before the AFC championship game, I had three questions when the Jags had the football, particularly when it came to the run game. I've added a fourth. We can revisit those right now because they are all still pertinent to what's going to happen on Sunday. The first question, the biggest one, and that's going to get answered perhaps today. Leonard Fournette walked off the field last Sunday

at MetLife Stadium grabbing his right hamstring. He's slated to test it out today. How is that hamstring going to be? Because as we talked about in yesterday's show, when Fournette is in the game, this offense, this run game has some more schematic flexibility to it. They trust him with power and gap block and schemes in front of him. They trust him with zone block and schemes in front of him. He's quick. He's athletic enough with good enough vision and change of direction to function in both schemes, even in zone blocking schemes. When you put a lot on the running back to diagnose, to process, and to make decisions with where to run the football. Remember, most zone running plays have a number of reads built in for where the running back is going to go. There's no defined hole for him to attack. He can do what we call make his band read, which is just take the

ball and go towards the alley that's roughly designed for the play to be executed into. He can make his bounce read, where he sort of flows that way. Say it's a zone play to the left, he starts flowing left. Usually, you'd like to see you go through that left tackle hole on that play, but if it's not there, you bounce it to the outside. Or you can make that bend read where you cut it back and you sort of cut back against the flow of the play. What's critical there is that backside edge player, whether it's the tackle, whether it's a tight end, even a wide receiver sometimes. Get in that backside defensive player, that backside edge player, whether it's a defensive end, defensive tackle, outside linebacker,

getting them to the ground, getting that cut block to get that player to the ground. For a great example of this, a running back making that sort of Ben Reed and bouncing it back, Saquon Barkley's 68-yard touchdown run against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. That's a perfect play to look at if you want to look at a running back making that backside cutback move and the importance of the backside offensive player to get that defensive end to the ground. So that's question number one. A lot of words there. Leonard Fournette, can he go? The other three questions, and these are holdover questions from the AFC championship game that still have pertinence today. But we've seen some of these be answered so far. First off,

will Bortles audible? This was a question I had coming into last year's AFC championship game, because if you watch Jacksonville last season, there were times when teams, knowing who Jacksonville is, knowing who Blake Bortles is, stacked the box, showed overload stuff. And Bortles would just run the play right into the teeth of what the defense was doing. There were examples, like a game

against Arizona last year. Jacksonville comes out on 22 offensive personnel. Arizona comes with their base, 3-4, and they put nine guys in the box. Nine guys in the box. Not counting Fournette and Bortles, who ends up carrying the football on the playing question, the Jaguars have eight. That's a box disadvantage for the offense. Now, they were backed up in their own territory, but that's a situation where if you're a quarterback, you might want to get out

of that. There's been a lot of research that has shown when the defense has the box advantage, it's tough to run the ball. So, Will Bortles' audible, that was a question I had coming into the AFC Championship game. He's starting to answer that one more in the affirmative. You look at that game against the Giants, he saw an overload to one side of the formation last week. He checked into a run, a zoned run to the other side of the formation. So we're seeing him start to audible. Second question I had, which is our question three this week. Will he be an active participant in the run game?

And I'm not just the only one worried about this one. Bill Belichick himself, he basically put Bortles in the same category as Cam Newton and Deshaun Watson. Two quarterbacks the Patriots have already seen this season. Although one was in a preseason game. Because Bortles can do some stuff with his legs. And he didn't have a ton of yardage running last year against the Patriots in the AFC Championship game. But he already ripped off a 40-yard run this week, this year so far, against the Giants on a zone-read type play.

And one way for an offense to sort of negate a numbers disadvantage in the box, turn the quarterback into an active participant. The previous play we just talked about, we can't count Bortles because it was a straight handoff. But if he's an active participant, whether zone read type stuff or naked bootlegs or things like that, you change the numbers equation. And on those zone read plays, you basically block a defender by leaving him unblocked. And then the quarterback makes a decision whether to hand off or keep it himself based on what that defender does. So in essence, you're blocking him with the flow of the play.

So will he be an active participant? Finally, can New England win some one-on-one battles up front? There were times on film last week against the Giants when guys like Andrew Noel, for example, they lost some one-on-one battles up front. We're starting to see this defense, this defensive front, we're starting to see in them the ability to win some of those one-on-one battles up front. And so I think if the Patriots defensive front can, as we talked about last week, stop the run with four, it means they're winning some of those battles. That's going to go a huge way to stopping the run on Sunday. Up next, we're going to talk about what to expect when the Patriots have the ball.

But first, a couple of words about the Jags passing game. I don't want to negate that. And as we talked about in yesterday's show, the Bortles will take some deep shots. There are going to be some opportunities downfield in the passing game. They'd like to throw some goes, some stuff off of play action, so we'll need tight coverage there. The other thing to be cognizant of, they love attacking the middle of the field on in-breaking routes, on dig routes. They love doing that off of play action where you get those linebackers to sink down. It expands those throwing lanes.

And then they like D.D. Westbrook, for example, on those dig routes, working towards the middle of the field, finding that grass in front of the safeties, but behind the linebackers. Eye discipline will be critical. Jaguars will do some stuff with misdirection, but play action, you need those linebackers to be disciplined. If they do get sunken down on those run looks, get back, retreat, get back into those throwing lanes, take those throwing lanes away. That's going to be critical when the Patriots are on defense. Next, we're going to talk when the Patriots are on offense. But first, look, I know you might want to put some money down on this game or on other games. As I said,

huge, huge, huge slate of action, both at the NFL and college levels this week. But remember, who you're betting on, important. Who you're betting with, more important. That's why I always tell people to bet with my bookie. Trust me, guys, they are your best bet this season, bar none. They've been in business for years, have great reviews online, and their mobile site, it's so easy to use. I would only recommend a service to my listeners that's been good to me. You know me.

I'm all about helping people, whether it's helping your quarterback, helping your fellow man or woman, just helping people in general. That's why I'm urging you to go to MyBookie. You win, they pay. They have in-game, live betting, over-unders on fantasy points scored, and the most rewarding player perks in the business. Here's the thing though, they are slammed right now, but they still want to give everybody the best service possible. So if you're willing to deposit after 7 p.m. Eastern time, they'll give you an additional $25 free on deposits over $100. If you join now, MyBookie will match your deposit dollar for dollar, 100% up to $1,000. So here's some promo codes for you. Look, if you can't wait, promo code LOCKEDON to activate that match,

dollar for dollar up to $1,000. Visit my bookie, M-Y-B-O-O-K-I-E. You can use that promo code LOCKEDON to claim up to $1,000 that they'll match you. Now, if you can wait, if you can hold out to after 7 p.m. and you want that extra $25, here's a promo code for you guys and girls. LOCKEDON25. They will add that extra $25 to your account if you can hold off until after 7 p.m. That promo code, LOCKEDON25. It's up to you guys, but I'd wait until after dinner and get that extra $25. Either way, my bookie. You play, you win, you get paid. Up next, when the Patriots have the ball.

Cover three beaters. Yes, cover three beater time. That's ahead with me, Mark Schofield. And LO, when the Patriots have the ball. Cover three beaters. Yes, cover three beater time. That's ahead with me, Mark Schofield and Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield back with you now on this game day edition of Locked On Patriots. Going to do some stuff now. I want to see what I'm going to be looking for when I'm watching

when the Patriots have the ball and some big picture type stuff first. Look, we know this Jacksonville defense. It's young. It's young. It's talented. You don't need to be perfect, but you need to be pretty darn close to beat these guys.

Just look at last week. Eli Manning getting crushed by media, both in New York City and outside New York City, for missing on some throws against this Jacksonville defense because, again, you need to be almost perfect to beat these guys. You miss a throw by a step here, a step there, you're going to lose games. And so you can't expect easy throws. Tom Brady, like he needed last year, is going to need his A game

or very close to it to have a game that will allow New England to go into Jacksonville and come out with a win. He's going to need to be quick. He's going to need his A game or very close to it to have a game that will allow New England to go into Jacksonville and come out with a win. He's going to need to be quick. He's going to need to be decisive. You double clutch, you're dead. You take too much time to go through your progressions, you're dead. Make your reads, know where to go with the football, and get the ball out of your hands. Now you can attack these guys in the passing game. These guys are a little bit more experienced now. They've been in an AFC championship game. They've had another year in the league, another training camp to learn their stuff. But there are times when they get confused. There are times when pre-snap motion, pre-snap movement

can cause confusion in the defensive backfield. The Steelers did that to them in the divisional round. The Patriots did that to them at times last year. There there was a play a huge third down conversion when the Patriots were backed up in their own territory when they ran a switch concept Amendola started in the middle of a trips formation and came inside the inside receiver broke to the outside and one of Jacksonville's linebackers failed to count to three Steve Spagnuolo defensive coordinator former head coach of the Giants, did a great breakdown of this at NFL.com. He said it in there. If you count to three, you can play defense.

The linebacker responsible on that play is supposed to wall off that number three defender. And it's not where they start. It's where they end up. So when Amendola comes into the inside, he's supposed to stay with him. But he doesn't. He vacates. That little switch concept allows Brady to make a big throw to start a drive and to move the sticks and to stay on the field

instead of having a punt in that situation, which might have been a game killer. So you can move around. You can shift. You can switch concept. And you might be able to get some throws against these guys. The other thing in the pass game, cover three beaters. And we talked about this a lot last year. We talked about this in the Super Bowl. We talked

about this last year in the AFC Championship game. But hopefully there are some new listeners. And even for you listeners from last year, you hold over, who I love so much. Seriously, I do. It means the world that anybody listens to this show. Remember, cover three, three deep, right? Safety in the middle of the field, corner to one side, corner or sometimes a safety depending on if it's sky or cloud, but that's ultra nerdy football stuff we don't need to get into right now. But it's three deep, three or four underneath, right? There are ways to attack this coverage. Up the seams is a big one. And who do the Patriots, I mean, do they have anybody on their roster?

I know we've been worried about the wide receiver room, but is there anybody you can think of that the Patriots could use up the seams? Those like vertical routes up the hash marks. I think he wears 87, kind of a big guy. Spikes the ball, known to have some fun. Yeah, Rob Gronkowski. How do they do it? A play called the Haas concept.

It's one of the staples of New England's offense over the past decade or so. Receiver on the outside runs a hitch route. Receiver in the slot or inside runs that seam route. And the Patriots love to sometimes do this to both sides of the field at the same time. So those inside vertical routes bracket that safety in the middle of the field. Brady can look to one and throw to the other and hopefully move that safety to one side of the field. If the corners decide to play off, then look, if you're going to give us a seven

yard throw, okay, sure, we'll take it. we'll complete it and work our way and matriculate the ball down the field, so Haas concept that's a big one to sort of look for other ways to beat cover 3 as we talked about at the outset, you've got those corners on the outside you high low

them, what does that mean? you have some guy running into the flat and then work somebody over the top. Smash concept, great route concept to throw against cover three. So take, for example, we were just talking about Haas. You've got Gronkowski on the inside and say Dorsett on the outside. You have that corner to that side of the field. You show, you know, eight yard curl in that corner, might be worried about that, might break on it. If he does, you have Gronkowski on a corner route breaking to the outside over the top of that cornerback.

If the corner is smart and stays home, drops under Gronkowski's route, again, you have an eight-yard curl that's not covered. Hopefully, you get it up before the flat defender to that side, say the outside linebacker, or maybe it's a nickel corner, or somebody gets underneath it. That's the way to stop that coverage. But if you can do something with eye candy or a run fake or something, get that guy to stick inside for a minute, you've got that window there. So that's one way to do it.

Another way to do it, another way to beat cover three, spacing. You can attack the seams. You can attack underneath. We know the seams. You can attack underneath. We know the Patriots love to attack underneath. You can do things with route concepts that work underneath, stuff the Patriots like to run. Like for example, shout, a three receiver combination route. Outside receiver runs a go. Middle receiver runs a quick out. Inside receiver runs a deeper out pattern. It's kind of like a flood concept you stress the defense along the boundary with the go and the out combination

you stress the defense inside between the two inside receivers on those quick out patterns so there are ways to attack this defense high low concepts are great your slot fade that's another one the patriots have used that as well they used it last year against carolina where you have high-low concepts are great. Slot fade. That's another one. The Patriots have used that as well. They used it last year against Carolina where you have Dorsett run a hitch route on the outside and then Gronkowski was on the outside and he ran not a corner route but a slot fade where you go vertically, kind of bend it to the outside.

And again, you see what that cornerback does. If he gets so stressed by that quick route in front of him, that little quick hitch or smoke route, then you throw that fade route from the inside slot receiver. You throw it to him. If he sinks, that corner sinks under that fade, again, take the easy hitch. If there aren't going to be easy throws to be found against this defense, but you can make some, you can find some, you can create some with designs like this. Take advantage. Take advantage.

Finally, last thing to talk about when you're thrown against cover three. Last thing to talk about when you're trying to attack this coverage, that middle of the field safety. We've talked about it with this defense a bit. Maybe the safeties are the weak spot.

Use the plays like the Mills concept or the Yankee concept. Mills concept, post route, dig route. If he comes down on the dig, you throw the post over his head. If he stays deep on the post, you throw the dig route in front of him. High, low, and defenders at all levels of the field. It's in a way to cover, to attack, excuse me, cover three. Some other things I'm going to be watching for when the Patriots have the ball. Tempo. Are they going to use tempo? Supposed to be hot, humid, muggy down there in Jacksonville. Feeling some of the effects maybe of Hurricane Florence

working its way through. Do they use tempo to keep guys, that defense on the field? Don't let them substitute the guys up front and wear them down physically. The other thing I'm going to be watching, Trent Brown. Great game last week. A lot of people are happy with Trent Brown's performance against guys like Jadeveon Kalani.

Can he keep it up? Again, that Jacksonville defensive front, they got some talented, talented guys. That's going to be something I'm watching there. So those are the things I'm looking for when the Patriots have the ball. Up next, my prediction for this game, as well as some other stuff I'm going to be watching, some other college-type predictions that are sure to be wrong.

That's ahead with me, Mark Schofield, and Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield, back with you to close out this game day edition of Locked On Patriots. And I'm going to talk about what I'm watching this weekend, as well as predictions that are sure to be wrong. It is a fascinating weekend, both at the NFL level and the college level. The NFL level, we've basically got five elimination games. If you look at playoff teams since 2009, since they expanded to the current playoff structure,

teams that start 0-2 historically have such a poor chance of making it to the playoffs. Again, we saw it last year with the Saints, but it's like 8% of the time the teams make it to the playoffs if they start 0-2. And we've got five games with teams that are looking to avoid that fall to 0-2. We've got Chargers-Bills. We've got Texans-Titans.

We've got Lions-49ers. We've got Giants-Cowboys. We've got Seahawks-Bears. I'm going to be watching three of these games closely. I'm going to be watching first that Texans, that Titans game. Two young quarterbacks that people had high expectations for this season, myself included. Both of those teams got to 0-1 starts. I'm watching which young quarterback can sort of get on the right track quickly. You look at that Seahawks-Bears game on Monday night. Can that Seahawks offensive line protect Russell Wilson, or are we going to see another six-sack game against a quarterback like

Russell Wilson, given Roquan Smith, given Khalil Mack? That Dallas-New York Giants game on Sunday night, which team is going to protect their quarterback. Both of those teams struggle to protect either Dak Prescott or Eli Bannon. Now, in some of those instances, look, guys ran into sacks like Prescott did. Eli may be holding on to the ball too long or offensive lineman getting deked up front. Protection is going to be a big thing in both of those games. Those are some things I'm watching at the NFL level. On the college level, obviously a lot of games being impacted by Hurricane Florence. We've got cancellations.

We've got games being moved, games being canceled, things like that. But there are still some very important games to watch. I know now we're getting into sort of early conference schedule type stuff. So some of the games aren't that great. I'm not seeing a lot of matchups between two top ranked teams, but there are two games in particular that I'm going to be keeping an eye on. And they do involve two ranked teams. First, that Saturday night game, you've got Ohio State versus TCU down in Texas. Dwayne Haskins, young redshirt sophomore quarterback for Ohio State. He's looked every bit the part of a potential first-round quarterback.

The guys over at the Draft Network, they got a piece out on him right now. It was Joe Marino, his six-pack piece, talking about, look, yeah, they played some cupcake-type games so far, but he's made a ton of nice throws. He might be the real deal. We might be seeing a true number-one one type quarterback growing up before our eyes. Very big test for him down in what will probably be a hostile environment.

Although yeah, Ohio State does travel well. The game I'm really keeping my eye on. 3.30 p.m. Eastern start. Boise State number 17 at number 24 Oklahoma State. Brett Rippon. I think he can be the real deal too. I've been really excited about Brett Rippon coming into this season. Two strong games, yes against Troy, yes against UConn. Very excited to see him in that game. So keep an eye on that one. Pats fans who are listening,

Brett Rippon might be your next quarterback. I'm just putting that little bug in your ear. So I'm going to be keeping an eye on that game as well. I feel that Boise State's going to go in and win this game. That's how I feel about that one. But that's going to be a fascinating game to watch no matter what because, again, I'm really excited about where Brett Rippon is right now. And he's starting to get some buzz, starting to get some attention. So get in on watching him early.

Now let's get down to some nitty gritty here. Patriots-Jags, Sunday afternoon, your national game on CBS. I'm excited. Got the mom and the dad coming over, little family gathering to watch football. Really looking forward to that. As for what we're going to see,

we've talked about it. Time for predictions. You probably heard me on the crossover show. Look, I think this is going to be a one-score game. And when I did my season prediction countdown, going through the schedule,

looking at the schedule, wondering how the Patriots are going to end up, I had this game done as a loss. And maybe it's a homer pick. Maybe I'm going back on my word. Maybe I'm just a liar and you shouldn't trust me anymore.

But for whatever reasons, I look at this game and I think New England is going to go in and pull out a victory. I do. I look at it as a one-score game.

24-0, I mean 24-20, 24-21, something in that range. But I think the Patriots pull it out. I think, obviously,

we know Jacksonville is going to be hyped. We know Duval County is out of its mind right now, but I think the Patriots pull it out. I think, obviously, we know Jacksonville is going to be hyped. We know Duval County is out of its mind right now, but I think the Patriots, they avoid big mistakes. They don't turn it over. They do the little things that we know that they can do, and they pull out a victory. I still think, I'm not going back on my word again. Patriots win one score game.

That's where I am sticking to it right now. Either way, I will have it covered for you sometime Sunday night. But don't forget, Sunday morning tailgate. I will be back Sunday morning getting you ready for your NFL slate of action. We'll do some last minute news and notes. Maybe some active, inactive type stuff

depending on how fast the news comes out. I'll have some daily fantasy recommendations for you. I'll also have a recap of some of the college action. Hopefully, my boy Brett Rippin balls out. If not, I'll eat some crow. Either way, tune in Sunday morning, your Sunday morning tailgate here at Locked on Patriots. Until then, enjoy the weekend.

Enjoy the games on the Saturday slate of games. Have a fantastic, fantastic weekend. I will see you Monday morning. Until then, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patreon.