Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots September 15, 2017 - Saints Gameday Edition

Episode Date: September 15, 2017

Mark Schofield has his scheme preview of the Patriots-Saints matchup with what he expects when each team has the football. Plus, he goes into the odds, the over/under, and makes his final prediction. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Learn more about our healthy benefits at fepblue.org slash get more. You're Locked On Patriots, your daily podcast on the New England Patriots, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Good morning and welcome to a special game day edition of Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield here with you on Friday, September 15th, and we are now just a couple of days away from the week two matchup between the New England Patriots and the New Orleans Saints. Obviously a big game for both teams. Both teams looking to get off that 0-1 schneid. And as we'll talk about in a bit, that has repercussions because the teams that drop to 0-2 face a real uphill challenge to get to the playoffs.

As we're going to do on each game day edition at the outset, I'm going to have some scheme stuff, some X's and O's stuff for you, things that I'm looking for and expecting to see when each team has the football. Then later in the show, we're going to talk who the favorite is. We're going to talk some over under. We're going to talk a couple of prop bets. And then finally, a game day prediction from me, your host, Mark Schofield. Try to have a little fun with it. You know what else is really fun, folks?

Having an edge subscription to Pro Football Focus. The folks over at Pro Football Focus do some great work, some charting stuff, some data stuff, player grades. You want one of those Edge subscriptions. They're $39.99, but you can get one for free. And as I'll tell you, it's simple. Go to

iTunes. Go to the iTunes page for Locked On Patriots. Leave a review for the show with your Twitter handle and you'll be entered to win. We're going to pick one winner each week to get your hands on a PFF Edge subscription. It's a tremendous value. It's worth more than the $40 that you have to pay for it. So I would highly recommend that you go do that. And look, you don't even have to leave a good review for the show.

If you want to go on and tell everybody that you don't like the show, you don't like me, you don't like my accent, whatever, that's fine. It doesn't have to be a five-star review. Obviously, I'd love a five-star review, but you don't have to leave one to be entered to win. So go to iTunes page for Locked On Patriots, leave a review, make sure your Twitter handle is in there, and you'll be entered to win. Let's talk some football. I want to first focus on when the Saints have the football, and there's a couple of things that I want to highlight for you and some things that I'm going to be watching, some things that I'm a little bit potentially concerned about for when the Saints have the ball. Obviously,

we know all about Drew B's tremendous talent at the quarterback position. He can still make a ton of throws when he has time, which we'll get to. One player that I'm definitely watching is wide receiver Michael Thomas, second-year player out of Ohio State. We all know what Thomas can do as a route runner. We see that clip of him when he was in college against Virginia Tech, that stutter move, that stop-and-go route for a touchdown. He's a very fluid route runner. He can win on a variety of route concepts.

It doesn't have to be deep down the field. He's shown himself adept at beat and press coverage. He has the upper body strength to get off the jam from a defensive back at the line of scrimmage, get into his route and get off the break and work back to the football. He also has really great footwork. I mean, you know, the stutter and go move that everybody talks about with him against Virginia Tech is one example but the way he can get into and out of breaks the way he can change direction quickly is another hallmark of a great wide receiver and Thomas to this point in his NFL career has certainly showed the ability to make those routes work to make defenders bite on fakes to sell a defender on say a vertical route and

then work back to the football to sell a defender on a route breaking to the outside and then cut to the middle of the field and so he's somebody to watch as this game gets going and how do the Patriots deal with him do they you know do they put Stephon Gilmore on him and try to just use him in a one-on-one situation to lock him down do they put Butler on him to try to use Butler to lock him down we saw last week obviously the concern about Travis Kelsey. So we saw a lot of Devin McCourty shadowing Kelsey to one side of the field or the other. And as we talked about a little bit earlier this week, that sort of came back to bite the Patriots on both of those touchdown passes, the long touchdown passes, first to Tyreek

Hill and then to Kareem Hunt. So Michael Thomas, first and foremost, is somebody that I think the Patriots are going to want to have anem Hunt. So Michael Thomas, first and foremost, is somebody that I think the Patriots are going to want to have an answer for. But another thing that concerns me is how Sean Payton can scheme some stuff up, can design some route concepts to get guys open. You know, we saw this on Monday night against the Minnesota Vikings. Drew Brees and that often struggled to get the ball in the end zone, but part of that was due to pressure up front. There were route concepts that were breaking open or had the potential to break open,

but Brees just didn't have the time in the pocket to get to those reads. One example, there was a little rub type concept where Brees ended up throwing the ball short, kind of turfing it because he had pressure in his face, but had he had time, there was a route breaking open to the backside of that play. Another play that they were able to dial up for Alvin Kamara, that rookie running back, where he ends up running sort of a, there's a scissors concept where you have a post route coming from the outside on the left, and then Kamara runs a corner route out of the backfield. That route breaks open late, but Breeze just simply doesn't have the time to wait on that,

wait for Kermard and get into the end zone and make that break to the back corner because of the pass rush in his face. Vikings have a great pass rush. Everson Griffin, one of the best defensive ends in the league right now, one of the most talented edge defenders in the league. So the Vikings were able to get pressure on Brees in those situations, force him into making quicker throws. Does New England have somebody like that? Does New England have a pass rush like that? So that's a concern that I have because, you know,

one of the things that the Vikings were able to do to win that game was they gave up yardage. They gave up yardage to those wide receivers sort of between the 20s. But once that offense got inside the 20-yard line, once that offense got inside the red zone, they were able to hold the Saints to three points rather than giving up seven. And that's how you win football games, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. When you can hold a powerful offense like the New Orleans Saints

to three points on those possessions, you've done your job as a defense. Can the Patriots do that when they're in those red zone situations? Can they bend and not break? Part of it, I think, was the pass rush that the Vikings were able to put together on Monday night. They were able to get, like I said, pressure on Breeze, force him into quicker decisions, and then he had to get the ball out of his hands. The route concepts either didn't have time to and then he had to get the ball out of his hands the route concepts either didn't have time to develop or he couldn't get through his progression reads passes fell incomplete third downs became fourth downs and then you send in the field goal team onto the field for the three-point try can the Patriots do the same it stems from the pass rush

and a question mark I have as well is can can they duplicate that? And right now, from what we've seen, I'm not so sure. Another sort of thing to remember when the Saints have the football, they struggled to run the football on opening night. They only had around 30 yards on the ground. Will they struggle again? Given the struggles that we saw, are we going to see some more cover two looks from the Patriots? Going into that week one game against the Chiefs,

I remember talking to you on the same game day type edition show about cover two looks from the Patriots going into that week one game against the Chiefs I remember talking to you on the same game day type edition show about cover two about how they might use cover two or cover five that cover two men under look to try to get some looks to contain Travis Kelsey or even Tyree Kill might have to take a little bit of an L on that one my friends because they showed a cover two or a Tampa two look on that long touchdown to Tyreek Hill. It sort of came back to bite them there. So I guess I could say I got that right and wrong in a sense. But given the struggles that we saw from New Orleans in the run game, are we going to see some more cover two? Are we going to see them, you know, have both safeties deep because you don't have to drop one down.

You don't have to drop down a Patrick Chun or, you know, even if you want a Harmon down into the box to help against the run, you can hopefully just stop the run with the guys up front, whether it's, you know, six defenders in a 4-2-5 nickel look or even, you know, five defenders in your sort of base look. You know, can they do that? Do they feel comfortable trying to stop the run with base looks and not dropping a safety down? And if so, would that give them the

help they need over a Michael Thomas or Tommy Lee Lewis over a Ted Ginn some of those quicker receivers from the Saints and so those are some of the things that I'm looking for when the Saints have the football the Michael Thomas issue does he have the ability to win those one-on-one matchups or can the Patriots sort of contain him in man coverage situations Sean Payton drew Brees their ability to sort of scheme stuff get guys open through route concepts and will Payton and Brees be able to protect the quarterback well enough and will Brees have enough time to get through those reads he didn't have that time on Monday night will he have that time on Sunday and finally given the struggles that we saw from the Saints running the football do we see some more cover

to again this week you don't need to drop that safety down that gives you some help on the outside over those receivers let's talk for a little bit about the Patriots and their offensive woes and how you can look to get on track now against the Saints I mentioned earlier in the week two guys that sort of flashed for me on the defensive side of the ball the defensive line for the Saints as Sheldon Rankins the second year three tech defensive lineman out of the University, the defensive line for the Saints. Sheldon Rankins, the second year three-tech defensive lineman out of the University of Louisville. He had that broken leg last year, missed six games, I believe. But he's back now.

And when you say three-tech defensive tackle, what you're talking about is a guy that lines up on the outside shoulder of the guard to either side of the field. And what can he do in the interior? We all know that Tom Brady has struggled from time to time with that sort of interior pressure quickly. Can Thune, can Shaq Mason, can they sort of handle Rankins? Because Rankins is that three-tech guy that can probably get you a little bit of pass rush on the inside.

Also remember Deuce Windham. I mentioned Tyler Davidson, who's that one-tech guy who's going to line up on the outside shoulder of the center, David Andrews. He can give you a little bit of push up front as well. So can the interior of the line handle those two guys, Davidson and Sheldon Rankins? Another guy I obviously have to be concerned about up front is Cameron Jordan, the defensive end for the New Orleans since he has now 47.5 sacks on his career. At 46.5 coming into this year, he had one against the Vikings on Monday night.

Jordan can bring that sort of pressure off the edge. Brady typically handles that well. He's pretty adept at sliding around, climbing the pocket, so he should be able to handle Jordan. But if we're seeing push up front from those two guys, Rankins and Davidson, to lend Jordan off the edge, that's a situation that could pose some problems for the New England Patriots. Secondary is a bit on the young side. They started a rookie Marshawn Lattimore, cornerback, the rookie out of Ohio State, their first round pick, and he saw 61 of 65 defensive snaps, 91% of their defensive snaps on open at night. They also

started a rookie at free safety, Marcus Williams, a second year, second round pick, excuse me, out of Utah. He was at free safety for them. He started and was in on every single defensive play. We're going to talk about Williams in a second, but there are some opportunities in this secondary, I think, where the Patriots can get some matchups, where they can get defenders out of position using route concepts, one of which I'm going to talk about, and Brady should be able to have some success down the field and hit those plays that he missed on Thursday night two areas of focus one the run game Dalvin Cook had a big open tonight big debut for him 22 carries 127 yards in his debut and some of those chunk plays particularly his 32 yard run but some of those like 7 10 yard runs that you know either get you in a second and

short situation or move the change and get you a fresh set of downs they came on that outside zone play that stretch zone and I think we're going to see a lot of that from New England I think they're going to try to use that and establish the run and get to the edge and that's why I think we might see a lot of James White in this game I know we saw Gillisley they used him sort of as that their power guy but the patriots like white they like his ability to get to the edge they like him in sort of those zone looks might even see a little bit of rex burkhead he had a run on one of those designs in the in the fourth quarter where the patriots needed to move the change they need to get back

on track he had a nice run on a sort of that stretch zone design as well but i think we're going to see a lot of James White in this game. They might even use White as a receiving threat as well because their linebackers are okay. I mean, I think the New Orleans defense, if you sort of look at it from up front back to the secondary, the strength is up front, and it gets a little bit weaker as you get into the second level with those linebackers. And then the secondary, I think, is where they have

their most glaring weaknesses. So it's sort of like strongest front work into back, strongest up front, weakest as you get deeper and deeper into the defense. And so you might see some James White as well trying to work against those linebackers. You know, they've got some young guys there as well. I mean, Manti Teo, you know, Alex Anzalone, who's a rookie out of the University of Florida,

a kid that I sort of like down at the Senior Bowl, did some nice things down there. But it's one thing to be covering, you know, other seniors in college down at Mobile, you know, at the end of January. It's another thing to be going up against the defending Super Bowl champions, you know, in the home opener in September. So we'll see what Anzalone can sort of bring to that defense as well. But in the running game, I'm expecting to see some James White, some stretch zone stuff to see if they can duplicate

the success that Minnesota had when they were running the football with their rookie running back. Now the passing game. Brady struggled on Thursday night. I don't think it's, you know, wrong to say that. I think if you go into this with eyes wide open, Brady struggled, completed fewer than 50% of his passes. And look, the first throw of the night where they had a nice route concept dialed up to get Dwayne Allen open on a wheel router along the sideline, Brady missed that throw. And it was sort of emblematic of his night

and what the Patriots were able to do and not do against the Kansas City Chiefs. But I think they're going to get back on track, particularly working in the passing game against this young secondary. And at the outset, Sam Bradford, 27 of 32 for 346 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, a near perfect passer rating of 143. Perfect passer rating being 158.3. Now, not the QB rating is the be all and end all, but just watch that tape.

Watch that game. Bradford had a spectacular night, was making some big-boy-type throws, and looked phenomenal against that secondary. And I think there are ways to attack these guys, particularly to stress the free safety, the rookie Williams, and the free safety as well as either cornerback. Lattimore, again, a rookie. He's a very talented player, but he's still a rookie. Devontae Harris saw a significant time at cornerback for them as well as either cornerback. Lattimore, again, a rookie. He's a very talented player, but he's still a rookie. Devontae Harris saw a significant time at cornerback for them as well.

He's a second-year player. It seemed like Minnesota really attacked him in the passing game. And one passing concept that I think we're going to see, we saw a couple of times for New England on Open Tonight, I think we're going to see more of it, is something called the Mills concept. And we can do some nerdy football stuff for a second, but if you remember, one of Gronkowski's catches, one of Rob Gronkowski's receptions,

came on a second quarter play where he ran a sort of deep crossing route, a deep dig route against Eric Berry, the very talented safety for the Chiefs. And Gronkowski was able to get open near the top of the route. Berry was still in pretty good coverage. But as he was cutting over the middle on that dig route, Brandon Cooks was running sort of a deep post route over the top. And that's what the Mills concept is. This is a passing concept that was first basically made famous by Steve Spurrier, the old ball coach, Duke University, University of Florida. then it's South Carolina now,

sitting somewhere shirtless on a beach drinking some silver bullets. Talk about a guy that's living his best life now, wearing the visor, not a care in the world. But when Spurrier was at Florida, he had a wide receiver, Ernie Mills, and Mills caught a ton of touchdowns, some big touchdowns for the Gators and Steve Spurrier during the 90s on this play. And Spurrier's first SEC win, actually, in 1990 versus the Alabama Crimson Tide. It was one of the biggest wins in school history, according to Spurrier himself.

And it came on a 70-yard pass to Ernie Mills on this design. It's a two-receiver combination where you get a dig route from one receiver, which is that route Gronkowski ran. It's about a 12 to 15 yard route that cuts to the inside parallel to the line of scrimmage and then that post route over the top and it can stress the defense in two ways first think of cover one or cover three where you've got a free safety in the middle of the field that will be rookie Marcus Williams the route concept there that Mills concept that combination of a post and a dig that's going to work to guy. And if you get, say, a cover three look where he's responsible for the

deep middle of the field, he's going to make a choice. Traditionally, you'd expect him to stay on that deep route with Brandon Cooks. And that's probably what he would do in that situation because Cooks, fast vertical threat. And if he does, that should open Gronkowski over the middle on that dig route. Now, if whatever reason, they show that look. And Williams is in that cover three, that deep middle area. And he sees big Rob Gronkowski. And he's worried. He's been hearing all week, they're going to throw to Gronk.

They're going to throw to Gronk. And he bites on that for even a split second. Brady should have a chance over the top of that. Because again, you're high low on that guy. Now you've got the post route behind him over the top to Brandon Cooks hopefully for a big gain it can also stretch the combination of a safety and a cornerback if you see and say a cover four look or quarters where each of the four defensive backs is responsible for sort of a quarter deep of the field you know that receiver that runs the dig route G Gronkowski, you know, you might

get the safety in the inside to jump that. And then that number one receiver, the receiver on the outside, say Brandon Cooks, now he's working a post route against a cornerback who might think that he has help to the inside. But if the safety, Williams, is jumping that dig route, the help goes away. And now you've got Cooks basically in a one-on-one situation, no safety help and another chance for a big play. And so that's why I think the Mills design is a perfect little concept that the Patriots can be using between Gronkowski and Cooks, the speed over the top on the post route with the fears of Rob Gronkowski over the middle on that dig route.

I think it's a combination that they can use. And if you want another example of this Mills concept, I'd recommend an article by Chris Brown over at Grantland back from 2012. This is from the NFC Championship game between the Giants and the 49ers. And, you know, that's a game that the Giants won in overtime, the NFC Championship game, and it set them up for a Super Bowl, which we don't have to talk about. But perhaps one of the biggest plays of the day came on this Mills concept.

It was a throw from Manning to Mario Manningham on the Mills concept, which tied the game at 17, setting up the overtime victory by the Giants. And it comes on the Mills concept. They have three receivers to the left. Ted and Jake Ballard runs that dig route. He gets the safety to jump. And then to the outside, Manahan, he runs that post route. Safety jumps the dig.

It opens up the middle of the field on that post route. Touchdown Giants. And unfortunately, Patriots fans, we kind of know how that ends. So those are some scheme things that I'm looking for. I'm going to do some fun stuff here in a second. But I want to remind you about the chance to win that PFF Edge subscription. Again, I can't say this enough. It's an incredible value.

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Some of the data, some of the statistics, some of the chart and stuff that I've cited on this show or in other places or my work on Inside the Pylon comes from my PFF Edge subscription. So you're going to want a chance to get your hands on one of these. And easiest way to do that is, like I said, go to the iTunes page for Locked On Patriots. Leave a review. I'd love a five-star review that would be tremendous it's a one star it's a three star it doesn't matter any review as long as your twitter handle is in there gets you entered for a chance to win they're going to be doing giving away one of these to each to a listener from each

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Go get one of these PFF Edge subscriptions. Now let's sort of close out the week with a little bit of fun. We did this last week. I hope you paid a little bit of attention last week. You might have put some money in your pocket while you were watching that Traversham mockery of an opening night lost by the New England Patriots. But like I said last week, you know, I basically said, look, you know, take the under. I didn't think the Pats were going to cover. I hope you listened. Hoping you'll listen again too, because again, got some recommendations here.

Right now, looking at odds checker, you're seeing Pats anywhere from 6 point favorites to 6.5 point favorites to 7 point favorites. And honestly, I don't care which number it is. I think they cover. I think they come out and they have a pretty big night, excuse me, afternoon down in New Orleans. I think

this is one of those situations. You have the mini buy. You can see some stuff on film. Some things that you can exploit in both the run game and the passing game. So I think the Patriots come out with a game plan that they execute well on both sides of the football. And I think they come out and they have a big day and they avoid that 0-2 start to the season. Over-under right now on Bovada, 56.5. That is a massive number. Both offenses look like they can put up points, but both offenses struggle at times to finish drives, particularly the Saints.

They settle for three a lot of times. I would strongly recommend you, for entertainment purposes or otherwise, as long as you do so responsibly, that you give serious consideration to taking the under there. I think we're going to see some points, sure, but I don't think we're going to see a number like over 56 and a half. That is a big number. Finally, we talk a little prop bets. First score in play is the part that I want to talk

about this week. And the favorite there, New England touchdown. And I don't think it's, they're not exactly odds on favorites here. They're six to four over at Sporting Bent, which has a New Orleans touchdown as the second most probable option, but an underdog for sure at 12 to five. Again, I think New England does get on the board first with a touchdown. I think we're going to see some TDs from New England starting early. So if you're going to go that route, maybe take a little gander at that New England score on the first touchdown. Prediction time. And as we talked about with Deuce Windham, who again, I would strongly recommend you follow him. He does great work for Canal Street Chronicles, ESPN 97.7 down in Monroe, Louisiana.

You can follow him at RevDeuceWindham. This is a big game for both teams. The loser drops to 0-2, and again, historically speaking, 11% chance that you get to the playoffs after starting 0-2. That's a big hole to climb out of. Neither team wants to be there right now. Both teams have lost a conference game, which is not to start thinking about tiebreakers, but each team has now lost a conference game.

You don't want to follow that up with another loss to drop to 0-2 but I don't think New England faces that reality come Monday morning it might make for great radio if they do but I think for all intents and purposes we're going to see New England come out play the type of game we expected them to play on opening night and come out ready to win and actually execute better I think we're going to see better execution from this team on both sides of the football. There were missed opportunities on offense. There were some missed assignments on defense.

I think we're going to see that stuff cleaned up. They've had a little bit more time to do it. Saints now have a short week. They're coming off a game Monday night. And I think we're going to see Tom Brady hit some of those plays that he and the offense missed on Thursday. And I think the Patriots come out of this with a 31-21 win. Comes in under that under 56.5, but I think the Patriots do cover that point spread.

But that's my thought. That's sort of my prediction. We had a little bit of a mixed bag on the predictions last week. Hopefully, I nail all three of these. As always, hit me up on Twitter, at Mark Schofield. You can send me your thoughts throughout the game, throughout the weekend, late at night, whatever. I'm always there for you. I am your resource for all things Patriots.

I'm trying to bring you all the knowledge that I can about this team. If there's anything you'd like to hear, any guests you'd like to have see on this show, anything you want to see covered, please let me know. Again, go leave a review on iTunes, drop your Twitter handle in there, get yourself entered for that PFF Ed subscription. It's a tremendous value. And so enjoy the games, everybody. Football is back. It's great to have the fallback. It's great to have football back. Hopefully the Patriots can get off that 0-1 Schneid and get back to 500 and get themselves back into the conversation now.

Enjoy the games, everybody. Thank you again so much for listening. I can't say this enough. The response to the show has been incredible. I'm touched by every nice thing people have said about it on Twitter and elsewhere. I really do appreciate that. I know that this is an incredibly crowded media market for Patriots coverage. I know you have 7 million options that you could listen

to because there are people out there, men and women, doing incredible work covering this team. And so for you to let me in each weekday to talk about this team and share my thoughts with this team about you, it means the world to me. So thank you so much for the support you've given me so far. Please tell your friends, tell people you know that like this team to subscribe. Tell people you know that don't like this team to subscribe because Tell people you know that don't like this team to subscribe because maybe they can get a little Schindelfreud when the Patriots lose and they can hear some sadness in my voice. Maybe you want to give that as a little gift to somebody.

I don't know. But tell your friends to subscribe. Subscribe yourselves. Tell people you know about the show because it's nice to sort of build this little audience here. And I'm touched deeply by everybody listening and welcoming me into their homes each weekday to talk about this team and all the nice comments so thank you so much and I'll be back Monday setting up with again you know instant reaction on Monday some film breakdown stuff on Tuesday

we'll start talking Texans on Wednesday another mailbag show on Thursday and of course Friday game day edition as well so then, keep it locked right here on Locked on Patriot. Whatcha doing? Ran out of space on my phone, so I'm deleting some stuff. Bye singing dog. Bye goal. Bye wedding ceremony.

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