Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots September 28, 2018 - Gameday Edition

Episode Date: September 28, 2018

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Hello there everybody, welcome into Locked On Patriots for Friday, September 28th, 2018. If it's Friday, it's a game day edition of Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield in the big chair. Reminder to follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. Check out the work at places like InsideThePylon.com, Pro Football Weekly, The Score, Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio, MattWaldmanRSP.com.

Matt and I just recorded a video on West Virginia quarterback Will Greer. Going to suggest that you check that out when it drops. Big Blue View, part of the SB Nation family of websites. Did a piece on Drew Brees that you should check out. I've been doing a lot of work this week. I hope you check it all out. I try to put together a post on Medium every Friday, sort of like a little weekly digest of sorts of all the places that I pop up. So hopefully you check that out. Check out the work. Support the work. What we're going to do today, our usual game day fair, my expectations, what I'm watching for, what I'm looking for, some film stuff on the Miami Dolphins.

We're going to start with when the Dolphins have the football and then a little bit later when the Patriots have the football. And in the end, we're going to close it out with some predictions, some thoughts on the game. Generally dealing with the unease that I know we are all feeling. But let's start with, like I said, when the Dolphins have the football. And I want to start with the run game. I want to start with the Dolphins' ground attack. Because, look, they've got Kenyon Drake, who they've been working in. They've got Frank Gore, who they've been working in as well.

They do a lot of different stuff. One of the plays that I really liked that they ran against the Raiders last week was a situation where they had a second and nine. They start out with Tannehill in the shotgun. And then they've got two running backs on the field. They've got two running backs in the game. Tannehill brings both those guys in back towards the formation. And what they do is they run basically a lead outside zone. So Tannehill's on the shotgun. He's got Kenyon Drake to his right. He's got another running back to his left and Frank Gore. And they run lead zone to the outside with Frank Gore sort of leading them to

the edge. Everybody sort of flows that way as well. They just pick up three yards, but it's a nice little play and it's something that defenses will have to think about. It's something that defenses will have to prepare for. You see a two-back package from the Dolphins. They spread you out, but then they bring you back in and run the football. It's similar in a sense to how New England used to get some favorable matchups. Say you see that look and you might think, oh, you know, we're going to go base, we're going to expect the run. Well, they can spread you out and throw it out of that look.

And Kenyon Drake is a very good wide running back and receiver as a running back. But I really like that. I really like that. And it's a nice little play to look at. It's emblematic of what they can do as a creative little offense under Adam Gaze. Now, one play I do want to focus on, and I think it is more emblematic of what the Patriots might be facing and their current

struggles. It's a second and four play against the Raiders from last week. Comes about the 342 mark of the first quarter. And the Dolphins just run Kenyon Drake to the right side on outside zone. And what happens on this play, the right guard and the center, they have to execute a tough block here because what happens is the center has a nose tackle who's on him but on his left shoulder. Now remember, Miami's running to the right. And the right guard, he has somebody right in that B gap between him and the right tackle. And how this is supposed to work is the left guard has to somehow get onto that nose tackle. The center has to sort of help make sure that the two of them,

the left guard and the center, can handle that guy, and then he passes him off, and they have to work the combination block. So somebody has to get up to the linebacker. And what happens on this play is that they fail to do that. The center and the right guard, they start their block together on that defensive tackle that is over the right guard.

Okay? And the right guard then has to sort of disengage. Jesse Davis, he's number 77, the right guard. He has to then disengage and get to the second level to take on the linebacker to stop this play to keep this play alive to keep giving it a chance to come together the problem is the linebacker sees it the linebacker sees this play develop it and he just screams downfield fills that hole and chops chops Kenyon Drake down for a four-yard loss. And so when I watch this play, I think, look, this is how you beat them. This is how you can stop this ground game.

You float to the ball. You read and react. Athleticism. And you probably see where I'm going with this. A concern that lingers in the back of my mind when talking about this Patriots defense going up against Miami and we're going to talk about it even more in a second

when we talk about the pass game with the run game. There are opportunities to make plays. You can make plays against this run game with athleticism at the second level but that feeds into the concerns we all have about this team, about this defense. Are they athletic enough at the second level to make these kinds of plays,

to step up, to flow, to read, to react, to attack when you can and stop plays before they get going? This is a concern that I have. I have it here with the run game. Are they athletic enough? I have it here in the pass game as well, as we're going to talk about in a second. The last thing I will mention on this Dolphins offense and their ability to run the football, don't discount Ryan Tannehill. I know he's coming off some knee injuries, but he is still an athletic enough quarterback where he can make you pay with his legs. Matter of fact, I'm turning now to my notes from Tannehill's game against the Jets.

First play of the game, he's under center, play action pass, boot concept. He immediately sees grass, and so he takes off. You cannot discount him in the run game. But as far as the passing game, look, Adam Gase loves throwing crossing routes. They are going to work underneath. They are going to work crossing routes. Touchdown pass that Tannehill threw to Alfred Wilson against the New York Jets. It's a second quarter play, 4-19 mark, first and 10 situations. A double-in, double-China concept.

So you have one receiver, the inside receiver on a trips, running a corner route, and then the other two outside guys, they're all coming underneath. Wilson is the middle trips receiver, so he's that first inside route, and that's the one that he throws They catch them in a blitz They catch him in a blitz They blitz the corners

Tannehill is able to work off of it Throw this route to Wilson And he's just able to outrun people To the end zone It's all the stuff we've been talking about lately. You can't get pressure with four. You have to blitz. You either by scheme or by a lack of athleticism, you can't cover those routes. And it's a touchdown for the Dolphins. This is the stuff that scares me about Sunday.

This is the stuff that has me concerned. Is that the Patriots are not going to be able to handle these types of plays. The things that have given them fits for the past couple of weeks. The things that have given them fits dated back to last season. They're not going to be able to cover that. Now, if there's good news, it's this. Even though they throw a bunch of inside stuff, drive concepts, for example, you've got multiple receivers at multiple levels coming inside.

Even though at times, Tannehill showed some good patience in the pocket, he has put up very good numbers, top five quarterback type numbers to this point. When I was on Locked on Dolphins doing the crossover with Travis Winfield, I said, look, right now he's playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the league and the numbers back that up, and that's true. There are still some issues here with him. He can sometimes be slow with his decision making. He can sometimes be slow to decide what to do with the football, particularly in response to pressure. If he sees immediate pressure, he might panic. There was a

play against the Jets where he was under center. They run play action. He faces some immediate pressure. The ball basically just slips out of his hand as he's trying to get away from it, and the Jets recover. So there's an opportunity to get pressure on him. But similar to what we were just talking about with their run game, are you confident that the Patriots can do that? Right now, I don't think many of us are. So that's sort of this matchup, this Miami offense against this Patriots defense in a nutshell. There are ways to stop them, to slow them down, to make plays against them from a defensive standpoint, but they involve athleticism at the second level. They involve

getting pressure up front. Two things the Patriots have struggled to do. Up next, my thoughts on when the Patriots have the football. Attacking Kiko Alonso, that's going to be a focal part, I think, of New England's game plan. That's ahead on this game day edition of Locked on Patriots. Mark Schofield back with you now on this game day edition of Locked on Patriots. Going to talk for a couple minutes here about what I'm looking for when the Patriots have the football. And I'm looking for a couple of things. I want the Patriots to do three things. I want them to be more willing and use more of pre-snap movement. That's job number one. I want to see them be active pre-snap. Movement, shifts, and the like.

Number two, I want to see the screen game and not your smoke screens and stuff like that. I want running back screens in this game. Number three, I want them to isolate running backs on Kiko Alonso in man coverage situations. Let's go through these quickly now working from first to second to third. The first is movement pre-snap. The Raiders at times did some stuff pre-snap, whether it's movement, whether it's motion, whether it's creative formations that created confusion in the secondary. Let's remember, we're talking about a defense that at the linebacker spot, you've got Jerome Baker, a third-round rookie,

and Raekwon McMillan, who was picked in the second round last year but missed the entire season due to injury. You've got Minkah Fitzpatrick, talented first-round pick type guy, but a rookie. Kortereck Tankersley, second-year player. Zavian Howard, he's performing extremely well, but a third-year player. There's some youth in this defense. And if you watch their effort against the Raiders, whenever the Raiders used pre-snap motion, pre-snap movement, pre-snap shifted,

there was confusion. And there were times when there was late reaction in the secondary, late getting lined up. As a former quarterback, I always love it when an offense can create some confusion in the defense, make them think pre-snap. You're going to be able to take advantage of those moments. A prime example was a throw that Derek Carr made. It was a second and sixth situation, nine-minute mark or so of that first quarter. And Oakland comes out in sort of a double-stack formation where they've got two receivers to each side split wide in a stack slot and there's

movement and shifting and the defense doesn't know where to line up they don't know what to do and they just basically run vertical routes and the slot defender over Jordy Nelson who comes over late is still getting lined up as the ball is snapped. Jordy Nelson just runs right by him. And it's a 66-yard gain. So pre-snap movement, pre-snap shifting, the stuff that we all know and love about Josh McDaniels, more of that, please. Number two, the running back screen game. These linebackers, they're young, they're athletic, but that's McMillan and Baker,

and Alonso is a little bit slower. For whatever reason, whether it's slow to read and diagnose, or just not being quick enough in Alonso's case, they're slow to react. The running back screen game needs to be a focal part of this game. There was a fantastic play in the second quarter. It's just a simple running back screen. It's at the 945 mark of the second quarter. It just goes for nine yards to Jalen Richard. Jalen Richard, excuse me.

And it's just a one lineman screen. All you have is the center releasing. But that's all you needed. The other linebackers are sort of late. All that's left is Kiko Alonso. And the center is able to make a good block. Easy nine-yard gain. Easy throw.

Easy catch. Easy run. Easy yardage. Get the running back screen game into the game plan early and often. Third point, isolating Keigo Alonso in those man coverage situations. He just looks slow. These Oakland running backs, they just seem so much faster than these linebackers, particularly Alonzo in man coverage situations. So whether it's by alignment, whether it's by personnel,

whether it's by motion and shifting, find opportunities to get James White, Sonny Michel, get them in man coverage situations working against Kiko Alonzo, and then look to throw that player the ball. Do it early. Do it often. I think those are sort of your three keys to making plays against this defense. This defense can make plays, sure.

They've got some talent up front. They've got some talent in the secondary. But if you want to gain yardage, if you want to extend drives and finish drives with touchdowns, this is what you've got to do against them. Up next, my final thoughts, a prediction on this game. That's ahead with me, Mark Schofield, and Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield back with you now on this Friday game day edition of Locked On Patriots. And just want to remind everybody, look, we've got some fantastic people over in the Locked

On Patriots Slack channel. Conversations going on 24 hours a day. It's always great in games. Lately, it's been commiserating with others in those moments, but it's a fantastic environment to talk football, to talk all week long about this stuff. You know, we obviously talk a ton about the Patriots, but other stuff. If you would love an invite to that, hit me up on Twitter at Mark Schofield or shoot me an email, mark.schofield at insidethepylon.com and I'll get you all set up.

Let's close it out here with this. Before we get to my prediction, what's fascinating about my new line of work here, covering football full-time, what's fascinating about the opportunities that I have and the things I get to do is, you know, I get to talk to you guys each day about the Patriots. But what's great is, you know, I do radio shows. I do international stuff. I was on a podcast, Browns UK, with our good friend

Jack Duffin on Twitter. They're asking me about what's happening in New England. I do my weekly show with the guys, Sat and John, over at Sportsnet 650 in Vancouver. They're asking me about it. I did a show on Sportsnet 590 in Toronto, Canada's number one sports radio station, on Wednesday night. They're asking me about what's going on. It's clear that the one and two start from New England

has sort of become a national or international story. And when I'm asked about where the Patriots are right now, I keep coming back to the uneased and all that stuff that we've been feeling about this team ever since they lost Super Bowl 52. And I remember being on shows last week saying, this does feel like the we're on to Cincinnati type game. New England, they lose in Jacksonville.

Now they're going to go out and take care of business against Detroit. Well, it didn't happen. This might be that moment. I was asked yesterday from Truck on Twitter, at YIRT on Twitter. If they lose, is this the end? And I don't think it's the end, even if they lose this game. But this game does have

a sort of last stand type of feel to it. As a Civil War nerd, as a kid that grew up with a family filled with Civil War buffs, we've been to Gettysburg almost a dozen times. I often have found myself standing at a little round top

where Joshua Chamberlain, Colonel Joshua Chamberlain, the 20th man, they were the extreme flank of the Union Army on the second day of Gettysburg. And they had to sort of make their stand. They were out of ammunition. They were outnumbered and outgunned and they fixed bayonets and charged back down the hill, making their last stand.

And now I'm not trying to make the sort of war in football comparison, but as a football team, there are times when you might have to sort of stand up and make your last stand, your last moment, really sort of step up for your organization. And this might be that kind of moment for New England on Sunday. Because again, let's look at the stakes.

If they lose, you're now down three games in the AFC East. And you've got the Kansas City Chiefs to deal with in a couple of weeks. Now if you win and get a game back, obviously you get a game in hand against the Dolphins in a tiebreaker type situation. You'll have to go down there later this year, but things get a little bit back to normal. So this is a hugely pivotal game. It's not season-ending if they lose, but it certainly puts you on the brink in basically October, which is not where anybody wants to be. That being said, look, I think the Patriots win this game.

Would I go to my bookie and bet on it? No. This doesn't, it still feels different. Still feels different. Like I was saying in Sunday Night Show when I was talking to our great friend Erica Poole up in Canada, at Erica Holmes4U on Twitter.

Please give her a follow. She and I were chatting about it on Twitter a couple of days ago. It just feels different. And so I'm not completely confident they're going to go out there and win this game. I'm still picking them. I think they're going to win.

I think it's going to be a 24-20 type of game. Divisional rival. These games are always close anyway. But we'll see what this team is made of on Sunday. We'll see if this is going to be that 2018 version of the we're on to Cincinnati moment, or it's really time to hit the panic button. Now, I'm not ready to hit the panic button yet.

I don't think it's time. I still want to see what this offense looks like, no matter win or lose on Sunday, with Julian Edelman back and with Josh Gordon fully sort of acclimated as best as he can be. But let's put it this way. I've taken the panic button out of the closet, off the shelf. It's now sitting next to me on the table. I got it out. I'm not ready to hit it yet.

I'm not ready to put it back in the closet either. That will do it for today's show. Remember, I will be back Sunday morning with your Sunday morning tailgate installment of Locked on Patriots. We're going to talk some DFS stuff for you guys and girls out there. Interesting slate of college football games. We'll be talking about some quarterbacks who fared well, some quarterbacks who maybe helped themselves. Obviously, last week, look, the big talk was Justin Herbert and the game he had against Stanford.

As far as guys that I'm looking for, looking ahead to watch this weekend. Some interesting games. I want to see Will Greer. West Virginia on the road at Texas Tech. Will Greer is a fun quarterback. I think he's flying under the radar. I want to see Brian

Lewerke at Michigan State. They're hosting Central Michigan. I want to see him get back on track. Mackenzie Milton. I want to see him sort of get back on track. Mackenzie Milton. I want to see him against Pittsburgh. Excited to see that game. I know people have sort of hopped off the Clayton Thorson bandwagon. I want to see if he can, in a home game against Michigan,

sort of step up in a big game for him. Obviously the game that a lot of people are looking forward to, Ohio State, Penn State, Dwayne Haskins, Trace McSorley. That's going to be fun to watch. Stanford, Notre Dame, KJ Costello. that's going to be a fun game to watch. There's a number of big-type games, and so very, very intriguing slate of college football. We'll get a chance to talk about that on Sunday morning.

We'll also do some final news notes, injuries, and stuff like that. Until Sunday morning, enjoy your weekend, everybody. Enjoy your happy hours tonight, your Saturday nights. I will be back Sunday morning. Until then, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield and Locked on Patriots.