Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots September 4, 2018 - Mobile QBs, Record Predictions and Nathan Peterman

Episode Date: September 4, 2018

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Good morning, everybody. Welcome back into Lockdown Patriots for Tuesday, September 4th, 2018. Mark Schofield back in the big chair, fresh off a fabulous Labor Day weekend. I hope all you listeners out there had a wonderful, wonderful Labor Day weekend. And got to say at the outset, a bit of a bitter, bitter, bittersweet day. I saw an Owen off to second grade this morning. Brave little man. Probably a little bit braver than his dad at drop-off this morning.

Always tough to see the kids getting older, becoming bigger, becoming more self-reliant. So a bit of a bittersweet day, but we're going to get through it together here. Big show for you today. Before we get into everything, I want to remind everybody to follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. Check out the work at places like InsideThePylon.com where I'm one of the head writers. You can check out work at places like Pro Football Weekly. Got my first piece dropping on Mitchell Trubisky, Matt Nagy, and what they've been doing so far this preseason today.

Also, the score, my first NFL scheme preview piece is going to be coming out a little bit later this week. And I'm going to talk a little bit about one of the things I'm going to be writing about in today's show. Also, the Matthew Waldman Rookie Scouting Portfolio, mattwaldmanrsp.com. Got a piece up right now on Brett Rippon and his impressive debut against Troy University. Also, the Matthew Waldman Rookie Scouting Portfolio, mattwaldmanrsp.com. Got a piece up right now on Brett Rippon and his impressive debut against Troy University. On today's show, we're going to talk record prediction time. That was a big part of the conversation this weekend over at the Locked on Patriots Slack channel.

I'm going to go through game by game with my predictions, you know, sitting here at the start of September about what the Patriots 2018 schedule and record will shape up to be. We're also going to talk AFC East. We're going to be doing something over at the Locked On Podcast Network each week. A series of poll questions voted upon by the hosts of all the shows today. Who they picked, myself included, as your AFC East division winner. Probably won't come as a surprise.

A little bit later, speaking of the AFC East, we are going to talk. Nathan Peterman, your starting quarterback for the Buffalo Bills, a team that the Patriots will face, obviously, twice this season. But first, I want to start with mobile quarterbacks. It's something that I've been talking about. That others have been talking about. For a while. Not just this preseason. But dating back to.

Obviously the divisional game. Against the Tennessee Titans. Obviously dating back to. Seeing guys like Deshaun Watson and Cam Newton. Do stuff against this Patriots defense last year. And as I mentioned. One of the things I'm going to be doing for the score each week is I'm going to be doing a scheme preview of sorts.

How that's going to work is I'm going to ask three questions that I want to see answered over that slate of games. Just focusing on three games because you can't cover everything, obviously. But three questions that that in my mind will go a long way towards determining who's going to win in those games and for example this week I'm writing about that matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and their two back passing game against the Minnesota linebackers Minnesota last year for example they gave up just 494 yards second lowest in the league and just one touchdown the lowest in the league, and just one touchdown, the lowest in the league,

two running backs in the past game. But as I've written about over at the score earlier this summer, Kyle Shanahan loves to do stuff with his running backs in the passing game. So that's one of your strength versus strength matchups. Another thing I'm right about, Patrick Mahomes versus the Chargers and what they do up front defensively with Bosa, with Ingram, with some of the new guys they've been using up front this year, Chris Landrum, Ochena Nwosu, some of their speed rushing packages. So that's another thing I'm looking

to see this weekend. But the first question I ask is this, can the New England Patriots contain a mobile quarterback in Deshaun Watson? Again, just last year alone, Cam Newton ran for 44 yards and a touchdown against the Patriots while leading the Panthers to that last second win. Alex Smith, another mobile quarterback, he didn't have to run a ton in that season opener, but he threw for over 400 yards. Watson, what did he do against the Patriots in that game? 22 of 33, 67.6% completion percentage for 130 yards, two touchdowns, along with two interceptions, though. But he had a quarterback rating of 90.6.

He also chipped in 41 yards rushing on eight carries. Putting it together with a couple of other mobile quarterbacks, when you look at, say, Aaron Rodgers, Alex Smith, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, and games against New England, those QBs and their teams have averaged 30.1 points in their eight combined contests against the Patriots. In those games, the QBs themselves completed over 65% of their passes for an average of 302 yards passing per game, averaging 9.1 yards per passing attempt, and two and a half touchdown passes per game. Those are pretty good numbers.

And their combined passer rating, 115.1, while throwing for less than an interception per game on average. So mobile quarterbacks have been an issue for the New England Patriots. And if they continue to be an issue for the New England Patriots, that might be a difficult thing to overcome this season. When you remember, they play Deshaun Watson week one, Blake Bortles week two, Ryan Tannehill week four, Andrew Luck Luck, week 5. Patrick Mahomes, week 6. Mitchell Trubisky, week 7. In all likelihood, Josh Allen, week 8.

Aaron Rodgers, week 9. Marcus Mariota, week 10. Bye week. Sam Darnold, week 12. Tannehill again, week 14. Josh Allen probably in 16. And Darnold again week 14. Josh Allen probably in 16 and Donald again in 17. Those are teams I consider to have a somewhat mobile quarterback.

If not a very mobile quarterback. You know they also get to see Matthew Stafford who I don't think is mobile in that kind of dual threat type sense. Kirk Cousins who I don't think is mobile in that kind of dual threat type sense and Ben Roethlis who I don't think is mobile in that kind of dual threat type sense, and Ben Roethlisberger as well. But those are guys that still can move around in the pocket. So going up against mobile quarterbacks is something the Patriots are going to face week after week after week. And it starts with Watson. And I went back and I revisited that game last year, saw how the Patriots try to defend him. And trying to defend mobile quarterbacks, you can do it in a number of ways. You can start in the secondary. You can just go man coverage across the board and just assume that, look,

if scramble drill situations happen, we're going to have guys on guys. So he's going to have nowhere to throw. And that's okay to an extent. But one of the things that mobile quarterbacks love to see is man coverage. Why? Because they see the backs of those players on the second and third levels of the defense. And if those guys can't see you, you can take off and get pretty far downfield before they turn around,

depending on the route concept. So that's one issue. The other issue is you go zone, and maybe now you've got your eyes towards the offensive backfield. Mobile quarterbacks won't be able to get downfield as easily as they are against man coverage, but then you're opening up yourself to those throws and scramble drills situations where receivers can find grass.

They can find those soft spots. So that's the flip side. You can go mush rush. Not worry about getting home. Worry more about contain. And maybe that coupled with zone coverage makes a ton of sense.

Because then you're forcing Deshaun Watson to be pure pocket quarterback. But it's a big if because you've got to be disciplined. Disciplined in your rush lanes, in your responsibilities. You've got to be disciplined. Disciplined in your rush lanes, in your responsibilities. You've got to keep that pocket. Because if one guy says, oh, I can get inside here now and Watson breaks contained, then we're into that scramble drill situation.

Or you could go spy. You could combine all three. You could go mush rush with a spy and go zone behind it. The question would be who would fill out that spy role. Maybe, maybe a Kyle Van Noy.

Maybe a guy like Jawan Bentley who we've been talking about. And so those are some things that the New England Patriots are going to have to figure out as we get into their opening game against the Houston Texans. How are they going to keep Deshaun Watson contained on Sunday?

It's going to be an issue. It's going to be an issue throughout this entire season, how they're handling mobile quarterbacks, given the number of mobile-type quarterbacks they're facing this year. And so that's something to definitely keep in mind as we get into this regular season. Something else to keep in mind as we get into the regular season. And I'm not saying don't ask me these questions, okay? I'm not saying that. But I'm just saying this. I don't always know the answers to everything. I don't always know the answers to what coverage is best versus a type of offense. I don't always know the answers to, you know, what's the best route concept to attack cover three, things like that. I don't always know.

I have a pretty good answer, and I don't always know who's going to win each game. I get asked that a ton. Who's going to win Thursday night against Eagles-Falcons, that division around playoff? Who's going to win Texans-Pats. I'll have educated guesses. I'll make my calls, but I don't always get it right. But if you think you know, you've got to check out MyBookie.com. Because remember, who you're betting on, it's important. But it's also more important, I'd say, who you're betting with. That's why I always tell people to bet with MyBookie.

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MyBookie. You play. You win. You get paid. Up next, record predictions for the 2018 New England Patriots. And a little bit later, Nathan Peterman, your starting quarterback in Buffalo. That's all ahead with me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots. Mark Schofield, back with you now on this Tuesday installment of your favorite daily Patriots podcast.

Got a loaded show for you, loaded lineup this week. Wednesday's show is going to be your crossover show with Robert Downey with Locked on Texans. Thursday, we're going to do some Patriots timeline takes, some more film type stuff. Friday's going to be your game day edition. Taylor Kyle is making his triumphant, triumphant return to Locked on Patriots. And don't forget, Sunday morning, get up bright and early. Going to have that Sunday morning tailgate show. Some snippets from the stuff this week,

maybe clips from stuff with our guests, some last-minute thoughts, some news and notes around the league, everything you'll need to get ready for your NFL Sunday slate of games. But one of the things that people have been very excited to talk about, particularly over the Locked On Patriots Slack channel,

again, if you want to be part of the conversation, and it's always a lobby one, hit me up on Twitter at Mark Schofield or shoot me an email, mark.schofield at gmail.com or mark.schofield at insidethepylon.com. You can be a part of that conversation. So here's what people have been saying. Most people convalesce around the 12 and 4, 13 and 3 record. And that's kind of where I am too. That's kind of where I am too. And I think the best way to do this

is to just run through things. Remembering that 12 and four, look, you get six games in the AFC East. You know, I had my, this is funny, I had my sort of big money auction draft last night. And what's interesting about it is I'm really only friends with one guy

who brought me in. It's been a long established league. I don't know a lot of the other guys. They don't know me. So they have no idea what I do for a living. None. So last night when I'm bidding on guys like David Njoku,

I'm nominating guys like John Ross, guys that have been more under the radar, more unknown guys. Ronald Jones, who obviously has had a bad preseason, but I got him for a buck. Sure. This is a league where last year I got Kamara off of waivers, and he was my keeper. So Alvin Kamara in an auction league

cost me $1 this season. So anyway, but as we were right into the draft last night, I was with my buddy and he's also a Pats fan. And we were talking about, you know, the state of the Patriots. And I was just like, look, you know, you get six games against the AFC East. You can have a reasonable expectation of a 6-0 record to start. And then, okay, let's talk about the other 10 games. And now, yeah, I know they dropped a game against Miami last year, but still. But let's go through this Houston game. I still think a week one win for New England. Watson's going to be coming back from injury. He might not be fully 100%, at least mentally trusting that knee. So I go 1-0 to start. But then that Jacksonville game, and that's what I think that is going to be tough for this team. Road game, you know Jacksonville

is going to be out of their minds for that game. I mean, I just saw a picture on Twitter this morning of a grocery store down in Jacksonville, and they did one of those soda displays to get ready for the season, putting all the 12 packs of soda together to spell out a message, and the message was Miles Jack wasn't down. I mean, they're still angry about that.

Maybe they have a right to be angry, but that's in the past now. So I think it's... I'm looking at one and one out of the gate. I think they have a tough time down in Jacksville. Then they go to Detroit. I think they win that game. Miami, I think they win that game. Indianapolis, I think they win that game.

The Chiefs at home, I think they win that game. So I think you're looking at five-1 as you get into Week 7. And that's that game at Chicago. And I think they got a chance to lose that game. Maybe even more than a chance. You look at that Chicago defense and how they've been bolstered over the weekend. Roquan Smith as well. So I think that gets you to 5-2.

Then you go to Buffalo. I think they win as well. So I think that gets you to 5-2. But then you go to Buffalo. I think they win that game. So 6-2 there. The Packers game at home is one that I'm keeping an eye on. That's a Sunday night game. We're going to say they win that one. And then they beat the Titans at Tennessee. So that would get them into the bye with two

losses in 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. 8-2 at the bye, which I think most people would handle. And then you come out of the bye, you go to the Jets. I think they win that one. Then you get a home game against Minnesota and

I'm going to put that down as a loss right now. I know people might say, why would you pick that game as a loss other than the Packers? I think the Vikings are just a very, very complete team on both sides of the ball. And so now you're at 9-3, game against the Dolphins down in Miami. I still think they win that. So 10-3. That trip to Pittsburgh. We'll mark that down as a loss for now.

Pittsburgh, regular season. Those games have been difficult ones. Patriots tend to win a lot of them, but it was a close one last year. We'll mark that down as a loss right now. So 10-4. And then closing it out against Buffalo and the Jets at home. 11-4, 12-4. That's how I get to 12-4.

I mean, other people can go 13-3. I wouldn't quibble with that. Looking at it on paper right now with this schedule, I think it is somewhat favorable for New England. But the game's got to be played. But a lot of people are on the New England train in the AFC East, believe me, because as I talked about earlier, we are rolling out weekly poll questions, weekly surveys

over at the Locked On Podcast Network. And one of the questions in this week's survey asked of all the hosts, who's going to win the AFC East? 100% of those responded. Again, these are hosts of other locked on NFL shows.

Pick the New England Patriots. So if nothing else, 100% of the locked on podcast NFL hosts believe the Patriots are at least going to win the division. So there's that. Up next, we're going to talk as we close out this Tuesday installment of Locked On Patriots, your starting quarterback in Buffalo, Nathan Peterman.

That's ahead with me, Mark Schofield, and Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield, back with you now to quickly close out this Tuesday installment of Locked on Patriots with some news out of Buffalo on the quarterback front. The Buffalo Bills have decided to roll with Nathan Peterman as their starting quarterback for the 2018 season. And, you know, perhaps, you know, despite all of the things that Josh Allen has done and showed. I think this was the right move. Because as I've said before on this show and elsewhere, you draft Josh Allen for the next seven to eight to nine years.

Not to win in week one of the 2018 season. And so when I look at this decision, I think it's the right one. I think it's the smart one. You look at that Bill's offense from top to bottom, questions on the offensive line, questions at the receiver group, questions at the tight end group. It's more questions than answers. That's never a good situation for a rookie quarterback to enter, especially one that does need some development in a guy like Josh Allen. I'm always reminded

and I always come back to the great Matt Waldman and a piece that he wrote a while ago about ruining rookie quarterbacks. The quickest way to ruin a rookie quarterback, somebody like Josh Allen, is to run him out there in a situation that is just going to, it screams developmental danger.

And this Bills team right now, right now, is such a team. Now, it might not always be that way, even this season. The offensive line gels a bit, Kelvin Benjamin steps up a bit. Logan Thomas pans out as more of a threat at the tight end position than we maybe thought. Obviously they moved on from Nick O'Leary so they must see something there with him. And there's a chance that when we get into say October, when we get into say November that we can then

look at this Bills team and say okay we can go to Allen and not be worried about destroying him. But given the questions, I think that if you're Brian Daywell, if you're Sean McDermott, if you're

this organization, you want to answer some of the other questions first. Because they're going to go a long way towards determining whether it's time for Allen. Because you don't want a repeat of the David Carr situation. You don't want a situation where he's getting run out there and getting beat up. And it just destroys his internal clock. It just destroys his processing speed. It just destroys his process and speed. It just destroys things from a mental perspective. We saw him in that third preseason game just get beat up. And while some of the sacks and some of the hits might have been on him, not all of them were.

There were some breakdowns up front. So you've got to answer that question. You've got to answer the receiving core question. And you've also got to anticipate, looking at this team, that whomever was taking the snaps, they're going to see a lot of 7, 8, 9-man loaded boxes. Expecting the run. Daring the quarterback to beat them. Again, is that a situation you want to drop Josh Allen into if you're the Buffalo Bills?

I don't think so. I think this was the smart move. I'll say I'm kind of interested in this Paxton Lynch stuff, bringing Paxton Lynch in. Another sort of reclamation project there as well. Ultimately, I don't think Buffalo goes down that road because you bring in another first-round draft pick. Probably not

the best thing to do. Ultimately, I think Buffalo goes in a different direction. But fascinating times at Buffalo. Fascinating times in the AFC East with these two rookie quarterbacks. Allen and Darnold watching them. Seeing when the Bills go to Allen. Seeing how Darnold starts

out of the gate. Going to be fascinating to watch. And I will be here for all of it with you this season. That will do it for today's show. Remember, tomorrow is your Locked On Patriots, Locked On Texans crossover. Thursday, going to do some Patriots takes, some more film stuff to help you get you ready for Sunday's game. Friday, your game day edition. Taylor Cowles is going to be making a triumphant return, get you ready for Sunday against the

Texans. And look for that Sunday morning tailgate show. Loaded week ahead, big week ahead. We are on to Houston. Until next time, everybody, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots. you