Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots September 7, 2018 - Gameday Edition

Episode Date: September 7, 2018

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Hello everybody, welcome to a game day edition of Locked on Patriots. Mark Schofield easing into the big chair on this Friday morning to help get you ready for the New England Patriots season opener this Sunday against the Houston Texans. Got a locked and loaded show for you today. Going to do a lot of stuff to get you ready for Sunday. Before we dive in, a reminder to follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. Check out the work at places like InsideThePylon.com where I'm a head writer. Pro Football Weekly where I'm doing scheme analysis as well as following the development of Mitchell Trubisky.

Follow me over for my work at Big Blue View, part of the SB Nation of websites, covering the Giants, doing some scheme stuff, some quarterback stuff over there. The Score NFL, where I'm a featured NFL contributor and columnist. Places like Football Guys, where I'm going to be doing some fantasy work. Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio, mattwaldmanrsp.com. If there's a website that's writing about football, odds are they've got me writing about it in some way, shape, or form. As I said, loaded show for you today. We're going to talk a little Eagles-Falcons from last night.

Season opener, a little bit of a slop fest. Still a thrilling ending. And some questions that I have about Matt Ryan. We're going to talk my expectations when the Houston Texans have the football, my expectations and what I'm watching for when the Patriots have the football. But first, to kick things off, a little bit of news and notes from Thursday. Two things to talk about. First, the Patriots making a sign-in.

Sign-in Steven Anderson, a tight end formerly of the Houston Texans. Now, Patriots fans, those around the Patriots, usually you see a move like this and your first thought is, this is a playbook fishing expedition. Patriots, as well as other teams, the Patriots aren't the only ones that do this, but lots of teams, when they're going up against an opponent, they like to find somebody from that opponent,

formerly on that roster, to sign them them to get them in for the week sit them down not interrogate them per se but try to get some information from them some play calls some designs some game plan type stuff now a little bit harder at this point because teams haven't really done a lot of installation stuff until they've reached final cut down. And so you do wonder how much information that Anderson has available to him. So that's one possibility. And a lot of people had that early speculation when that move was announced yesterday. The other thought, and this is something to keep in mind, Jacob Hollister has been dealing with a hamstring issue. He's been limited in practice, at least according to every injury report I've seen so far.

And you do wonder if he's going to be able or if he's going to be unable to go on Sunday. And when you look at Steven Anderson, he's a player that I got to see a lot of when I was studying Jared Goff. He was a big body type wide receiver for the Pac-12. Now he got moved to tight end when he was with the Houston Texans. And so he's a player that can fit that move type tight end role. So you look at him and you think, look, if he's coming on to replace somebody, obviously it's Jacob Hollister. And when Hollister's been dealing with a hamstring issue,

you put two and two together, it doesn't take a genius to figure out this might be Hollister protection more than playbook investigation so that's one bit of news the other bit of news Duke Dawson second round draft pick cornerback out of the University of Florida placed on injured reserve with the intention to bring him back at some point in mid-season Duke Dawson has also been dealing with injuries the Patriots shut him down for a period of time with the intention, again, to bring him back at some point in the regular season, some point near midseason. He also dealing with a hamstring injury. And now, before we get into the ramifications of this,

let's look at the Patriots' 2018 draft class for a second. Isaiah Wynn, injured reserve. Sonny Michel missed the preseason coming back from that knee injury. Duke Dawson, injured reserve. Sonny Michel, missed the preseason, coming back from that knee injury. Duke Dawson, injured reserve. Bentley, we're good there. Christian Sam, injured reserve. Braxton Berrios, injured reserve. Danny Etlin, practice squad. Ryan Izzo, injured reserve. Keelan Crossan, on the roster. That's five guys on IR. Now, some of those, Sam and Berrios, and maybe even to an extent Izzo, that's more of a redshirt type season than anything else. But Dawson injured, Isaiah Wynn obviously injured,

and Michelle Battle in injuries, and so that's something to watch. But as for what this means on the field, one, Ryland McCarron, promoted from the practice squad. Perhaps we're going to see him in a limited punt return role on Sunday. But with Dawson down, that means you're probably looking at Jonathan Jones as that slot corner. And as I've talked about this week, probably going to have an issue at slot corner.

That's one of the things I was watching for, wondering who's going to lock that spot down. Looks like by default, it's Jonathan Jones to start. So that gets us through some news and notes. Let's talk when the Patriots have the ball on Sunday and the things I'm going to be watching for. And I'm going to start with left tackle. I'm going to start with Trent Brown.

Now, Trent Brown obviously comes in to replace Nate Solder, locks down that left tackle spot. But there have been some bumps in the road. You look at his start, some of the early plays against the Carolina Panthers in that third preseason game, that dress rehearsal, so to speak, and he got beat a couple of times. He looked like he was having some trouble with speed moves, with quick pass rushers off the edge.

Mario Addison got close to Brady or got into the backfield a couple of times, influenced a couple of plays. There was that other play with Trent Brown on a three-step concept. Couldn't cut him, showing you that sort of athleticism that might be an issue with Brown. So I'm watching Trent Brown. I want to see if he can truly protect Brady's blind side because let's not mince words.

Protecting 12 is job one for this offense. In addition to scoring points obviously but you got 12 you got a chance you got two in there that's a different ball game and so protecting brady has to be job one i want to see if trent brown is up to the challenge building off of that i want to see what flavor of passing game this new england offense looks like this new england offense takes upon itself. Is this going to be the sort of intermediate, even downfield-type passing game we saw at times last year where they seemed more willing to push the ball downfield? Now, having Brandon Cooks helps in that effort, but plays like Yankee concept, plays like that Haas concept,

but you've got those seam routes that they love to throw to Gronkowski. Those plays take a little bit of time to develop. And so, building off of the Trent Brown question, are they going to continue that trend or is this going to be more of the quick strike, West Coast type offense we've seen in the earlier Brady years when he was labeled the system quarterback, the dink and dunk quarterback with lots of screens

and swing routes and quick throws. Those that have labeled Brady a system quarterback in the past, I take umbrage with that label because every quarterback is a system quarterback. Some quarterbacks are just better suited for different systems than others. Again, I think if you plug Tom Brady into a vertical passing game, it might not be the best fit for him, but he could still execute it, and I'd say at a pretty high level. He's just a better fit for different offensive systems. And remember, when you're scouting players, when you're scouting quarterbacks, part of the job is identifying the traits. The other part is identifying the best scheme fit for them. All quarterbacks are system quarterbacks. It's

just a matter of which systems they're best suited for. So I want to see what flavor of pass game we have from this Patriots offense. And finally, I want to see the personnel. Is this an 11-personnel team? Is this a 12-personnel team? 11-personnel, obviously three wide receivers, 12-personnel, two tight ends, two wide receivers, one running back. Is it a 21 or 22-personnel team? 21-personnel, meaning you've got two running backs, one tight end, and two wide receivers, one running back. Is it a 21 or 22 personnel team? 21 personnel meaning you got two running backs, one tight end, and two wide receivers. 22? Well, that's two

running backs, two tight ends, and just one wide receiver. What's the personnel usage going to be the majority of the time? Now, that might look different in week five as it does in week one when Edelman comes back. Maybe with Edelman, they're more comfortable with 11 personnel. A group of Edelman, Hogan, and Dorsett, that's okay. Hogan, Dorsett, and Patterson, that's a little different. So in this first four-week period without Edelman, we might see more 12. We might see more 21. We might see 22.

They might look to attack defenses with packages with both James White and Rex Burkhead on the field. With Sonny Michel and Rex Burkhead. Or Sonny Michel and James White. Or James Devlin and one of the other running backs. If Hollister's a go, we might see more Gronk and Hollister on the field at the same time. So I'm watching those numbers, those personnel packages. What are we going to see the most on Sunday? So those are my expectations, what I'm watching for

when the Patriots have the ball. Up next, my thoughts on when the Houston Texans have the ball. And a little later, Eagles, Falcons, the Thursday night kickoff, and we'll close out the show with my game prediction for Sunday. That's all ahead with me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots.

Mark Schofield, back with you now on this Friday game day edition of Locked on Patriots. And just to remind your friends, I want to remind everybody about the Locked on Patriots Slack channel. We've had a conversation that's been non-stop since we got that channel up. Last night people talking about the games. This morning people talking about Steve Sarkeesian. Obviously yesterday we were talking about Duke Dawson and his injury and looking back at the hit rate on second-round picks overall.

It's a great conversation going on right over there with a great group of Patriots fans. If you want to be part of it, I'd say for game day, it's going to be especially thrilling to be a part of that, talking about the game in real time. Hit me up on Twitter at Mark Schofield or shoot an email to me, mark.schofield at insidethepylon.com. I will get you an invite, get you set up over there. Let's talk my expectation for when the Houston Texans have the football,

and it starts with number four. What I'm going to be watching is the health of Deshaun Watson, number one, because, again, I'm a quarterback guy. When the Texans aren't playing the Patriots, I want to see him thrive. I want to see him thrive anyway. I just want to see the Patriots win on Sunday. And so I want to see him back. I want to see him healthy. I think the league is going to be exciting if you've got young quarterbacks like Watson, like Mahomes playing at high levels. And so I want to see if he's healthy. But building off of that, though,

I want to see how the Patriots try to contain him. And this is something we've talked about this week. This is something I wrote about for the score. Every week at the score, for a sort of preview of the weekend action, I'm going to talk three questions, three scheme things I want to see answered over the course of the slate of games that weekend. And the first thing I wrote about was how are the Patriots going to try to contain Deshaun Watson? What do they do in the secondary? Do they do man? Do they go zone?

What do they do up front? Do they use a spy? Do they use a mush rush? How are they going to try to contain him? So I'm watching for that. What is the Patriots answer going to be for number four? Are they going to try different things? Are they going to show him different looks with a spy on one play, with mush rush on another play, with some blitz and twists so he doesn't know what pressure might be coming from him? Maybe that's the approach. I can't believe it took me that long to come up with that one. I've been thinking about it all week, but maybe that's the approach. So I'm watching to see how they handle Deshaun Watson.

And speaking with the number four, staying on the number four theme, I want to look at an overall theme for the Patriots defense, not just Sunday but throughout the season. The number four, getting the job done with four. And what do I mean by that? The four guys up front. Can they stop the run with the four guys up front, whether it's Shelton and Butler or Butler and Brown or Brown and Shelton? What do I mean by that? The four guys up front. Can they stop the run with the four guys up front?

Whether it's Shelton and Butler or Butler and Brown or Brown and Shelton, whatever mix of the guys on the interior and then the guys on the edges. Can they stop the run with those four guys up front? That was something they tried to do against Philadelphia in the Super Bowl. We saw it again last night with the Falcons defense, trying to take away those inside throws on those RPO designs and then just stop in the run with the guys up front. Giving the quarterback that give read, so he hands the ball off because you're taking away those throws. You're not collapsing down from the second level on those mesh moments when the quarterback puts the ball in the running back's belly. Those linebackers sink under those slant

routes, take away the throws, make the quarterback hand the ball off, and then stop the ball in the running back's belly. Those linebackers sink under those slant routes, take away the throws, make the quarterback hand the ball off, and then stop the run with the guys up front. I want to see if the guys up front, those four guys, whatever combination they are, can stop the run. And then building off of that, building off that number four theme, can they get pressure with four? Now that might not be something as significant this week because with Watson, you might look to contain.

You might look to mush. You might spy him, so there might be a three down lineman and a spy or four and a spy. But when they get the chance to put pressure with four, when they try to put pressure on with four, do they accomplish that task? Something I'll be watching this week, something I will be watching for the entire season.

Can they get pressure with four? If they can, you're in a great spot. Anytime you can accomplish stopping the run or getting pressure with just those four guys up front, you're in a great position as a defense. So I'm watching that. And finally, the slot corner. If it's Jones, how does he handle Elton?

What are the matchups going to be? Looking at this offense on paper and looking at how this secondary might match up with the Houston Texans. You know, in years past, what we've often seen the Patriots do is take their number one corner, put them on their number one guy, and just say, you're responsible for him. Sometimes they've done it the other way. They've taken their number one corner, put them on the number two guy and said, you're responsible for him. Sometimes they've done it the other way. They've taken their number one corner, put him on the number two guy, and said you're locking this guy down,

and on the other side of the field, you're taking number two, whoever that is, and giving him dedicated safety help. The year they beat the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, that's what they would often do with Revis, with Browner, and with Devin McCourty over the top. They'd take Revis, put him on the number two guy, and just lock him down and just assume that Revis is going to eliminate him. Then take that number one guy, put Browner on him,

dedicated safety health over the top. And when you look at Houston, however, you do wonder if you're going to put an Eric Rowe on DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins is 6'1", receiver, plays pretty big, obviously got good speed. And you do wonder if Eric Rowe is going to be a matchup, a good matchup. I mean, Rowe comes in just over 6 feet,

so you do wonder about that. Gilmore, he's a little shorter. He's just like 2 tenths of an inch shorter than Gilmore. Plays a little bit longer. You know, so do they put Gilmore on Hopkins? Is that what they're going to do? And if so, are they then seeing Rowe on Fuller with dedicated safety help over the top?

Either way, you've got to worry about Ellerton in the slot. Or maybe Kiki Cote, who they like, the kid out of Texas Tech, the shifty slot burner type guy. So whoever is in the slot, Jonathan Jones, it seems like, is going to be across from that player. How well does Jonathan Jones comport himself? So what are the secondary matchups? What are we doing with the slot corner?

How is that going to play out? Or does the presence of Deshaun Watson and his ability to run dictate you playing more zone coverage? All things I'm going to be watching for when the Houston Texans have the football. Up next, we're going to close out this show. We're going to talk a little bit about opening night. And then finally, I'm going to close this out with my prediction for the New England Patriots in their season opener of the 2018 campaign against the Houston Texans. That's ahead to close out this Friday game day installment of Locked on Patriots. Mark Schofield here to close out this Friday game day edition of Locked on Patriots.

And we actually have a legitimate regular season NFL game to discuss just for a minute here as we close out the show. The Philadelphia Eagles kick off the 2018 NFL season, bringing the banner, boys to men, big celebration after the rain delay, and the game ends eerily similar to that divisional round game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Atlanta Falcons. Philadelphia wins this 18-12 in a game that was more sloppy than well executed, I'd say. Look, Nick Foles, 19 of 34 for 117 yards, just 3.4 yards per attempt and one interception. Sacked twice, a quarterback rated of 50.7, a QBR of 26.2. On the other side, Matt Ryan, 21 of 43 for 251, an average of 5.8 per attempt, one interception, four sacks, a QBR of 12.4, a rating of just 57.4.

That there shows you the difference between QBR and quarterback rating. Because in QBR, Ryan was near, you know, absolutely horrific. He was almost as low as you could be. And Foles was a little bit higher. But on quarterback rating, Ryan actually had the better night than Foles. So, again, when people throw out QBR and rating, just remember that they are a different grading system. But this was an ugly game.

And frankly, one that I'm glad that I was just kind of in and out of until the end. You know, I had a draft last night and kids, the Battlefield 5 beta, the open beta is live. And your boy was running around Norway for a bit. Okay. I'm not watching football all the time. That's all I'm saying. But I come in for basically the fourth quarter, and a couple of things stand out. This Philadelphia defense, it is going to be good. Jalen Wills, he is susceptible still at the double moves. Julio Jones got him on one that was just video game style.

And it was an over-the-shoulder type throw that I thought Jones pulled in. It was overturned. But I thought he pulled that in. Jones is a freak, by the way. I know there are people out there in the fantasy world that say, look, you can't draft Jones where he is because he doesn't get touchdowns. 10 catches for 169. And that's what's taking a 55-yard reception off the board for him.

He could have had 11 for over 200. The Falcons need to do a better job, though, in the red zone. They get the ball down in there, and they got basically five cracks at it. And they're running kind of seam routes from him from the inside number three trips receiver. The last play, the one that Ryan kind of threw out of bounds, that was the best design they had for him. A little switch concept. They should have done more of that. But, yeah, kind of a sloppy game and

I think the main takeaway I have or the main, say, three takeaways I have. One, Eagles defense is going to be good. Okay, maybe we're going to have like four takeaways. Two, Carson Wentz better come back soon. Because we saw regular season Nick Foles and that

offense struggled a bit. Best play of the night for them might have been Philly Philly, their other trick play, which, yes, it was the play that Tom Brady dropped the pass on in Super Bowl 52. Yes, it was, okay? Stop tweeting about it, people.

I don't want to see it. It's making me angry this morning. For Atlanta, they need to do a better job schematically in the red zone. They just have to figure that out. Coming out in jumbo on a fourth and goal doesn't always fly in today's NFL, especially when you see a stacked box like that.

Look, I get it. Go on the road, play some power football, run it down their throat. I get the desire to do that. But look at how the Philadelphia Eagles were in the red zone. Motion, jet motion, getting you moving every other way. That's today's NFL. That's what you got to do. You got to take the three yards and a cloud of dust mentality

and throw it in the scrap heap of football history where it belongs. And Matt Ryan, is he healthy? There is a noticeable lack of velocity on the majority, if not all of their throws. And when you look at their final drive, what stood out to me, he threw a post route. It wasn't even a deep post route. It was more like a band-aid, quick, skiddy post route to Julio Jones.

There was maybe like a 20-20, a five-yard throw. And it looked like Ryan had to put everything into that throw, and it still wasn't even thrown on a rope or anything like that. There was a noticeable lack of velocity from Matt Ryan and I'm wondering about the status of his arm, his shoulder, his elbow. Is he dealing with an injury? He came out for a play. There was a brace issue. Maybe there's something going on with his lower body, but that's something to watch. Now imagine this. Imagine going on the radio in say New Orleans, for example, say a couple of hours before this game kicked off, for example,

and being asked to give some MVP candidates and mentioning Matt Ryan to a New Orleans Saints audience and making the case for Matt Ryan potentially being an MVP and then watching that game. Couldn't be me. It wouldn't be me. It was totally me yesterday. So, yeah, eating some crow this morning on that one.

But I'm worried about Matt Ryan. Doesn't seem like he's fully there. So those are some quick thoughts on the game. As for Sunday, expectations. Look, we're going to see, again, I think, again, a guy that made the case for Matt Ryan being an MVP. Now, yeah. Listen to me, friends. I think we're going to see a repeat of last year.

I think it's going to be a high-scoring affair. I think these teams are going to put up points. I think Deshaun Watson is going to do Deshaun Watson things. I think in the end, New England has enough to pull this out because I think their defense is better than last year's. So we won't see as many breakdowns in the secondary. There will be times when they get home, when they get to Deshaun Watson and get him to the turf. But I think it's going to be a high score unfair.

It's going to be a one-score game as far as a score. We'll say right here, sitting here right now, 31-21. No, 31-24. New England wins this thing. I think it's going to be close. I know 538 has New England favored by like 13. I'm not willing to go that far. I think it's going to be a one-score game, but I do think New England

wins it. That will do it for today's show. I will be back. Don't forget the new Sunday tailgate show. That will come up Sunday morning. I'll have some stuff, whether it's news and notes, last-minute breaking news type stuff around the league, some thoughts on the slate of games from the college level, some draft quarterback talk, maybe some clips from the shows this week as well. Everything

you'll need to get ready for your NFL Sunday. Until then, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots.