Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Mandatory: Patriots Need Drake Maye to Excel More Than Ever in 2026

Starting point is 00:00:00 Yes, runner up to the MVP, Drake May was tremendous in 2025. Also, yes, May could be proven even more valuable in 2026. This is Locked-on Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcasts network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host, Nick Cattles. On today's show, a patch draft pick finds himself in the headlines for all the wrong reasons. In the second segment, what are net rest days and why could they be critical to the

Starting point is 00:00:41 path schedule this upcoming season? But first, the importance of Drake May given said schedule. Today's episode is brought to by Game Time. Download the GameTime app, create an account, and use code locked on for $20 off your first purchase. Given the 2026 schedule, it would be incredibly difficult to forecast 10 or more wins with an average. quarterback. Just imagine walking into this type of schedule with Brock Purdy or Kyler Murray instead of runner up to the MVP, Drake May. In 2026, when you look at this schedule, the Patriots have not one, two, three, four, or five games against top 10 quarterbacks. They have six games against top 10 quarterbacks. I would say Trevor Lawrence, after last season, should be considered

Starting point is 00:01:32 in the top 10 at that position. So you got to play. in Jacksonville early in the year, deal with that heat against Trevor Lawrence and that offense. We know every single year the Patriots face Josh Allen twice per season. We also know how talented Josh Allen is. No doubt about it, unequivocally, one of the best quarterbacks in football. Then you've got Jordan Love in Green Bay. A lot of people would consider Jordan Love a top 10 quarterback. Justin Herbert with the Chargers with, we would expect healthy offensive tackles, a healthy offensive line. Justin Herbert, one of the better quarterbacks in football. And then, of course, you have to play in Kansas City on Monday night against Patrick Mahomes.

Starting point is 00:02:21 Many people would consider him the best quarterback of his generation. So you've got games against Trevor Lawrence. You've got two against Josh Allen. You've got a game against Jordan Love, Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes. Lawrence, away from Gillette Stadium. One of two against Allen, away from Gillette. Herbert, away from Gillette. Mahomes away from Gillette. So most of those games against top 10 quarterbacks are on the road, which makes those types of games that much more difficult. And that's not the only set of quarterbacks you look at when breaking this schedule down because the Patriots also face quarterbacks who would be considered just on the outside of the top 10 in looking in. And those quarterbacks are also good. And those quarterbacks,

Starting point is 00:03:11 many of them, helped by tons of weapons. Look at Caleb Williams. Caleb Williams feels like in Chicago, under the tutelage of Ben Johnson, he looks like he's just on the precipice, of being a top 10 quarterback. Some people might list him as a top 10 quarterback heading into 2026. That Caleb Williams, Ben Johnson combination is absolutely no joke in Chicago. Jared Goff. Now, some might say Jared Goff's not a top 10 quarterback. I know a lot of Patriots fans think back to the Super Bowl a few years ago and say,

Starting point is 00:03:45 that Jared Goff, are you kidding me? All he is is older now, Nick. Yeah, but when you have Jared Goff to go along with Amin Rae St. Brown, and Jameson Williams and Sam Laporta and Jemir Gibbs, those weapons within that Detroit offense make it very, very difficult to deal with Jared Gough. Then you move to Minnesota. And I know at the beginning of this segment,

Starting point is 00:04:12 I said, Kyler Murray, average quarterback pretty much at best from what we've seen over the past few years. But I do think the Minnesota Vikings can be dangerous. I do think that if there's any head coach in the NFL and play caller that has a good shot at getting the most out of Kyler Murray and designing an offense around Kyle Murray's strengths and trying to hide his weaknesses. Kevin O'Connell is as good as an option as pretty much anybody else in the game of football. Now, maybe J.J. McCarthy will shock the football world and he wins the starter's job. But right now, as we are in the middle of May, I would guess that Kyle Murray is the starting quarterback. for the Vikings in 2026.

Starting point is 00:04:53 And I think, Kyle Murray with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison and Juan Jennings, that offense could be very, very dangerous, given the play calling. Then we look at a team even like the Denver Broncos. Now, I'm not a huge Bo Nix fan. I think his up and down play,

Starting point is 00:05:12 even last year, will eventually hinder the Broncos. But Bo Nix, with the addition of Jalen Waddle, who is really the perfect fit for that offense and that quarterback. Cortland Sutton on the outside. Couple good running backs, some young running backs in the backfield. So when you look at the Broncos, the Vikings, the lions, the bears, I wouldn't say they would be considered top three to five in offense and football

Starting point is 00:05:46 heading into 2026. but I do think every single one of those teams is pretty dangerous on the offensive side. To go along with the quarterbacks that we said were in the top 10, who you will be facing with the majority of those games on the road. And you know what that means? Your quarterback is vital. Now I know your quarterback is always vital. And Drake May is always important.

Starting point is 00:06:09 And Drake May is always going to be critical to the operation. And you are always going to have a better shot with Drake May than having a quarterback who would be considered an average quarterback. But with this specific schedule, you're going to need some points. And I think the Patriots defense is going to be good, if not really good. But you're going to need to score points.

Starting point is 00:06:31 And if you need to outdule one of these quarterbacks, let's say your defense doesn't have a good week. Let's say Josh Allen wants to put up a 30 burger on you. You're going to need Drake May. You're going to need that type of quarterback to try to outdule the Josh Allen's and the Patrick Mahomes' of the world. And in some weeks when he's really hot, the Justin Herbert's, in some weeks even that Jordan loves,

Starting point is 00:06:56 you need offense in 2026. Not only that, look at the defenses you're facing. The Patriots, if you look back to last year, the Patriots will have seven games this season against top 10 defenses when looking at the statistic of yards per game. So defenses because, you know, points per game could be a little, little funky. You deal with special teams and, and, you know, you deal with turnovers and all that stuff. When I look at yards per game, usually a pretty good

Starting point is 00:07:26 indication of good defenses. The Patriots will face seven teams, well, six teams, six teams that were in the top 10 in defense and yards per game, and they'll face one team twice that was in the top 10. They play at Seattle. Seattle was sixth. They'll play against the bills. The bills were seventh in the league last year in defensive yards given up per game. Of course, they have a new defensive coordinator, new system with Jim Leonard. We'll see how all of that unfolds. Very respected defensive mind. The Chargers were fifth. Now, of course, Jesse Minter left the Chargers in the offseason to become the head coach of the Baltimore Ravens. But the Chargers still a good defense. The Vikings were third. Brian Flores in the headache that that defense is.

Starting point is 00:08:12 The Chiefs were 10th. The Broncos were second. So not only are you playing some of the top quarterbacks in football, not only are you playing some of the quarterbacks who are just on the outside of the top 10 in the league, but have some really difficult weapons and play callers to deal with. You're also going against seven of the better defenses if you look back to 2025. And just like you have some games against quarterbacks just on the outside of the top 10, you have some games against defenses who were just outside the top 10 in 2025.

Starting point is 00:08:45 The Jaguars were 11th in football and yards per game given up. The Packers were 12th. So you have nine games, nine games against legitimate defenses. You need a really good quarterback to win those types of games. Now you are, yes, in a much better position this year to deal with shootouts versus top quarterbacks. You order a much better position this year to deal with top 10 defenses. Drake May, Josh McDaniel's second year together. The expected addition of A.J. Brown to go along with Romeo Dobbs. The run game should be better, but the league also will adjust. The league will

Starting point is 00:09:30 adjust to Drake May. The league will adjust to this offense and what their strengths were on film from a year ago. You have to adjust to that adjustment. But in 2026, It is more than reasonable to say that Drake May's impact on this type of schedule could end up being bigger than the impact he made last year, as many would yell at you that the Patriots had a soft schedule, an easy schedule. You need Drake May to play good football, if not great football in 2026 if you want to win double digit games and get to the playoffs against this schedule, against these quarterbacks, and against some of these defenses. Coming up, the meaning of net rest days and what role they will play in this year's schedule. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. We can stream anything, order food and minutes, do everything from our phones, and somehow buying tickets to live events still feels way harder than it should be. Long lines, confusing checkout, prices jumping at the last second.

Starting point is 00:10:44 it shouldn't be that complicated. That's why there's game time. It gives the fans the advantage. It makes getting tickets fast and simple. Looking at tickets for an upcoming game, it can take minutes to find great options for you. Just minutes. You see the full price up front,

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Starting point is 00:11:20 Again, create an account in redeemed code L-O-C-K-E-D-O-N for $20 off. Download the GameTime app today. If you look at the net rest days stat for the Pats this year, you might feel more optimistic about their win total, but the analytics also don't tell the entire story. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being an everydayer. Don't forget to check out the Everydayer Club for ad-free episodes and access to a group chat with other listeners of this show. Tap the link in the show notes to find out more or go to lockdown patriots. Supercast.com.

Starting point is 00:12:01 And if you're watching on YouTube, help us out, click that thumbs up. Give us a like. Helps us with that algorithm we got to deal with here on YouTube. Don't forget also to throw a comment in that will also help us with that algorithm. And don't forget to subscribe. our next goal is 10,000 subscribers. Now, I know we talk about being here every day, and we are here every day for pretty much 11 out of the 12 months.

Starting point is 00:12:24 I want to give you a reminder. In June, we throttle down for a month. I know Red Sox fans might start, you know, twitching at the idea of throttle, thanks to Tom Warner from a few years ago. But in June, we do throttle down a bit. We do three shows per week. And we will be going here, Lockdown Patriots, Tuesday through Thursday.

Starting point is 00:12:45 So you will get an episode from us in the month of June, Tuesday through Thursday every week during that month. I will also point out that yes, I am well aware that the rumors are, the innuendo is, A.J. Brown is going to be a Patriot at the beginning

Starting point is 00:13:01 of June. You bet your took us that we are going to cover that as much as anybody. So look, we can go three times a week. We can go more than three times a week. A.J. Brown becomes a patriot. do not worry. We will be all over it as soon as it happens

Starting point is 00:13:17 and give you as much AJ Brown to the Patriots coverage as we possibly can right here with Lockdown Patriots. All right, more analytics every year. I'm a fan of analytics. I'm a fan of numbers, statistics. I pour through those during the season. And as we march forward on the calendar, it's year in and year out.

Starting point is 00:13:38 We get more and more analytics. And because we get more analytics, now than we ever have, there's more information at our fingertips to try to project a team's short and long-term future. And when you combine the amount of analytics that we have today, and you also look at the fact that the NFL, their schedule is more funky than it's ever been with the league wanting to play seemingly every single day of the week during the season, trying to take advantage of even more holidays and rest time around holidays than they've ever done before

Starting point is 00:14:16 with going international to the point where this week one is going to be as crazy as it's ever been, Patriots and Seahawks on a Wednesday night, followed by the Niners and the Rams on a Thursday night, but technically what, a Friday morning in Australia, whatever it's going to be. So when you have all of this different scheduling coming into play and you've got all of these analytics, it will lead us to people paying more attention to things like net rest days. Now, what are net rest days? Warren Sharp posted recently, net rest days are total days of extra rest versus a team's opponent summed over the course of the season.

Starting point is 00:15:04 So you go week in, week out. how many days of rest does this team have versus the team they're playing? Who's plus minus, who's even? And then you take that total number throughout the entire season, and that is your net rest day number. Back to Warren Sharp, there are 110 games played this year where a team has a rest advantage. That's 40% of the schedule the most in NFL history.

Starting point is 00:15:30 Also, there are 69 games played this year where a team has three plus days rest advantage. advantage. That is the most in NFL history. So Warren Sharp went through all the rest days, the net rest edges. Of course, if you are negative, that's a bad thing. You're getting less rest than your opponents throughout the year. If you're a plus team, that's good. 15 teams out of the 32 in the NFL have plus net rest edges. Teams like Arizona and Detroit are plus one. A team like Tennessee is plus six. A team like, Like Chicago tops all of the NFL with a plus 15 net rest edge.

Starting point is 00:16:14 The Patriots, not too shabby. The Patriots are at plus eight, plus eight when it comes to the net rest edge in the 2026 schedule. The Patriots are tied for the sixth most plus net rest days. Don't say that fast. Don't even try it. On the surface, it's good news. It's very good news, right? You have more rest than your opponents throughout this season.

Starting point is 00:16:44 And when you look at the Patriots coaching staff, I hold them in very high regard. And the better coaching staff with more rest means you should win those football games. So on the surface, it's good news. And when you look at the AFC in totality, and you try to figure out which teams could make the playoffs in 2026, and you try to figure out what their net rest day advantage or disadvantage is, this is what you see. The Los Angeles Chargers, when you look at net rest days, worse schedule in football, minus 24.

Starting point is 00:17:20 And there's nobody close. Nobody close. So the Chargers, 24 days of rest as a disadvantage versus their opponents in 2026. Indianapolis and Pittsburgh, two more teams that might be playoff teams. Minus six, Cincinnati, minus four, Baltimore and Jacksonville, minus three. Even Kansas City, the chiefs are a minus two in net rest days. So those are seven potential playoff teams with a disadvantage looking at net rest days. And if it's a tight race, if you've got a bunch of teams that are just, you know, scratching and clawing,

Starting point is 00:18:01 in the conference trying to get to that wild card spot, those few wild card spots, then yeah, net rest days might come back and bite one of these teams in the tookus. You look at the chargers, the chargers minus 24. That could end up being the difference of a game or two. And if that's the case, that's the difference between you making the playoffs and being on the outside looking in. The advantage, you want to look at the plus days because, again, the Patriots, they are this season, plus eight in net rest days, which is the sixth most, tied for the sixth most in the NFL.

Starting point is 00:18:38 Denver is plus three. Houston is right with the Patriots at plus eight. In Buffalo, as a matter of fact, they have the second best number at plus 14. So Josh Allen, going to have a lot more rest than many of the quarterbacks that he plays against. Buffalo is the only AFC team with more net rest days than the pay. Patriots have against their opponents. So again, just looking at the numbers makes you feel pretty good as a Patriots fan.

Starting point is 00:19:10 And you have to like their chances. But, you know, when you look inside the numbers, we have to acknowledge that the Wednesday night opener immediately gives the Patriots an advantage in this analytic. Because they're starting on Wednesday night opening week. There's only going to be so many teams that play on Wednesday nights. So right out of the gates, that opener helps you. You also have the give and take of Thursday night football. Yes, you have a rest advantage following Thursday night football because you get those two mini buys, so to speak.

Starting point is 00:19:46 But you're also dealing with two short weeks because of Thursday night football. So it's that give and take. It's going into the game and then coming out of the game. And we know that Thursday night is just, as I say it all the time, it's weird. I have no idea what to expect for Thursday night games. I also remind everybody, opponents matter. We can talk about net rest days all we want, but opponents matter. And how many times you're on the road consecutively matters,

Starting point is 00:20:15 who you're playing against after the mini-bys, who you're playing against on those short weeks. All of those things matter. All of those things are critical context to the overall picture we're trying to paint. What also matters, of course, is injury, rehab, and recovery. So when you have more net rest days, you should have more time to recover than your opponents do. When you look at Drake May, we talked about him in the first segment, the difference he can make in 2026 with this type of schedule. You look at the quarterback, you look at the net rest days.

Starting point is 00:20:52 Those two things could make the difference. that could be the difference between, you know, two or three games, which could mean an awful lot, especially in this conference. Coming up, a young Pat's defender finds himself in the news. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Today's episode is brought you by Indeed. You know that feeling when you're overwhelmed at work

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Starting point is 00:21:54 And right now, you can get a $75. sponsored job credit to boost your post. Just head to Indeed.com slash podcast. It really helps the show when you tell them you heard about it on this podcast. That's Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply need to hire. This is a job for Indeed sponsored jobs. Local college product Quintavius Hutchins, who was drafted by the Pats in the seventh

Starting point is 00:22:25 round, has quickly found himself in the headlines after being arrested. and it could mean the addition of a relative unknown to this year's Patriots roster. Thanks for checking out the Lockdown Podcast Network, now the number one sports podcast network, buried by all the schedule talk over the past several days, including here on Lockdown Patriots, because we talk about the schedule, it is vital, everybody cares about it. So buried by some of that talk, though, are other stories. And one of the stories that was buried by the schedule. stuff coming out, was the arrest of seventh round pick Quintavius Hutchins.

Starting point is 00:23:05 Now, this is from Lauren Campbell and Mark Daniels of Mass Live. They wrote, Hutchins has been charged with misdemeanor domestic assault and battery on a family slash household member. Hutchins pleaded not guilty and was released on personal recognizance. The Patriots released a statement to Mass Live, quote, we are aware of the report involving Quintavius Hutchins. We take these matters very seriously and are in the process. of gathering additional information.

Starting point is 00:23:31 We will not have further comment at this time, unquote. More details came out, of course, because you have a police report a lot of times with these types of stories. And according to an incident report filed by the Boston College Police Department, Hutchins was in a verbal disagreement with a woman in the hallway of a residence hall at the school when a resident advisor said she saw Hutchins push the woman and put his hands on the woman's neck. I always say this to start any segment when we're discussing something like this. Everyone.

Starting point is 00:24:08 Everyone in this country is considered innocent until proven guilty. And I know that we see social media and we see a lot of reaction nowadays. And the popular thing is to just go to the guilty part no matter what, right? Assume the person is guilty instead of innocent. But again, in this country, you are considered innocent until you are proven in a court of law to be guilty. I can only go back a few months ago when we discussed Stefan Diggs. I handled it the very same way. Stefan Diggs, not guilty.

Starting point is 00:24:45 Go back to the Christian Barmore story. Same week as Stefan Diggs. I think it was like a day after the Diggs news came out. We got the Christian Barmore news. Well, those charges against Christian Barmore were dropped. Without video, without pictures, we have no idea of the account's accuracy and how truthful the allegations are. That's why you are supposed to wait until it gets through the system and you figure out whether

Starting point is 00:25:15 or not that person is innocent or guilty. And of course, as we know, sometimes the system gets cases wrong. sometimes people are wrongfully prosecuted, sometimes they're wrongfully imprisoned. But we believe in the system in this country and Quintavius Hutchins should absolutely be considered innocent until he's proven guilty. Presume that innocence until that point.

Starting point is 00:25:45 Now, if the allegations are true, it's obviously awful. It's obviously putrid. disgusting and stomach turning. If the allegations are true, then I think Quintabius Hutchins will be gone. We know the Patriots stance on domestic violence. I don't think they're going to mess around with something like this. Is the fact that Hutchins is a seventh round pick make it tougher for him to survive something

Starting point is 00:26:14 like this? Absolutely. You can call that fair. You can call it unfair. I'm just telling you the reality. It is much easier for teams to forget the seventh round pick, move on from the seventh round pick, than it is to move on from somebody first round, second round, third round. You can look at the Atlanta Falcons and James Pierce in that situation, how that's been handled.

Starting point is 00:26:38 The very questionable decision made by the law dealing with James Pierce. But seventh round pick, guy that barely got drafted, it's a tough round. road to begin with. And now having this pop up, yeah, it's tougher for him. And if that's the bet he made, he's going to lie in it. And it's easier for the team to just cut him and move on. Because Hutchins, inevitably, he was not seen as somebody universally draftable. That's why he lasted until the seventh round, which begs the question, were there any red flags? I don't know. Nothing that I've seen reported. Nothing that I've read or been told. would say that there were any kind of red flags

Starting point is 00:27:23 regarding quintavius Hutchins. You have to imagine the Patriots did a lot of homework on Hutchins because he plays at Boston College or played at Boston College. Under Bill O'Brien, Bill O'Brien has a great relationship, very close friends with Mike Vrable. It would only make sense that, you know, if there was a big time issue that Bill O'Brien was aware of, you would hope and you would think that Bill O'Brien would tell the Patriots

Starting point is 00:27:46 that there's some kind of issue. So nothing that I've read, just universally on the field, not seen as a draftable player for a lot of teams. Now, regarding the football part of this, which I'm sure most of you care about the most, when you look at Quintavius Hutchins, it's not a fait accompli. This guy makes the roster, even if this wasn't happening, even if he wasn't arrested. He's competing against Jesse Lucetta in Brayden Swinson, I think, as the fifth defensive end on this roster. He's really battling for that fifth edge. We've talked about, you know, Harold Landry, Draymont Jones, Elijah Ponder, Gabe Accus. Those are going to be your top four.

Starting point is 00:28:30 So Hutchins is battling for that fifth spot with Jesse Lucetta and Brayden Swinton. And I do think this will make it tougher for him to make the team depending on how all of this goes. I mean, if we quickly find out that nothing's going to happen and, you know, charges end up being dropped or, you know, dealt with by the state. And we find out that we're just going to all move forward, pretty much nothing to see here. Then I think Hutchins goes back to having the shot that he had pretty much initially when he was drafted in the seventh round, which is not a very strong shot, but it's a shot. If this thing continues to hover around Hutchins or we find out more information or the state says,

Starting point is 00:29:09 yes, we want to, you know, we want to put charges on on Hutchins, then again, that's a different conversation. Don't forget the Patriot signed Xavier Holmes. He's also a defensive end. Holmes signed after the rookie minicamp tryout. So he's another name that is on this list to go along with Lucetta and Swinson. And now Holmes, he might have a better shot of making the football team as that fifth guy. If he can outplay Leketa and Swinson and Hutchins, if Hutchins gets out there during camp. So we'll keep an eye on it.

Starting point is 00:29:42 If anything new breaks, that's worthwhile. We were certainly covered here with lockdown. That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen for being an everyday. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C Radio. Don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Hit that like button. Give us a thumbs up.

Starting point is 00:29:59 Don't forget to subscribe. The goal is 10,000 subscribers. You can help us get there by subscribing to this podcast, to this channel. And if you never miss an episode, the Everydayer Club is built for you, get locked down patriots, ad free plus members only discord access and more. and to lockdown Patriots.com or check the link and the show notes to learn even more. Have a great day and we will see you next time.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Mandatory: Patriots Need Drake Maye to Excel More Than Ever in 2026

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