Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Must-Have: Will Campbell’s Role to Shield Drake Maye and Power the Offense

Starting point is 00:00:00 We all know who the most important player on this roster is, but it's time to tell you why Will Campbell is the second most important. This is Locked-on Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host of Nick Cattels. Today's episode is brought to by O'Doo. Do great organizations win because operations matter.

Starting point is 00:00:34 and that's why you should get O-D-O-D-com. Try for free today at O-D-O-com slash lockdown. That's O-D-O-O-O-com slash lockdown. On today's show, one of the biggest, if not the biggest surprise of mandatory minicamp. In the second segment, Stratomatic has predicted the 2026 season, and we disagree with multiple projections. But first, Will Campbell is vitally important to 2026. Other than Drake May, there is not a single, solitary player on this roster of the Patriots that is more important than Will Campbell in this upcoming season. In the vibes, thankfully, so far, as we could tell during mini-camp,

Starting point is 00:01:17 the vibes surrounding Will Campbell, they were great. Taylor Kyle's posted, Mike Vrable says Will Campbell is trying new things this spring, including different sets and techniques. Mike Giardi posted, Mike Vrable cites Will Campbell's maturity and notes he spent the spring working on technique and conditioning, says both he and Jared Wilson have pushed the offensive line group. Evan Lizarre wrote about Will Campbell. Will Campbell reped exclusively at left tackle during the spring and looks like he's added some bulk to his frame this offseason.

Starting point is 00:01:50 Clearly, Will Campbell has the work ethic to improve because if you're looking at the quote unquote homework he was given after that atrocious Super Bowl, you would begin with technique. Well, of course, you'd begin with getting healthy, but that speaks for itself. The homework part of this is, hey, man, work on your technique, figure out your shortcomings, polish what you are as an offensive lineman. And as we just heard from Taylor Kyle's and Mike Giardy, Will Campbell has been working on his technique. Different sets, different techniques, trying new things this spring. So technique, technique, technique.

Starting point is 00:02:36 Will Campbell took the assignment. He understood the assignment and he has worked towards becoming a better football player. Now, when we talk about sets and pass pro sets, it's an interesting note. You know, Ben Solac wrote about Will Campbell at ESPN. I think it was like a couple of months ago. And I took a chunk of the story. from Ben Solac, and I snuck it right into my back pocket as I was getting ready for the slower time, because there was something that Ben Solac wrote that stood out to me.

Starting point is 00:03:13 Here's what he wrote about Will Campbell versus length in his rookie season. Next Gen stats had a split on Will Campbell before the Super Bowl. He allowed a 2.9% sack rate to pass rushers with at least 33 and a half in. arms and a 1.1% sack rate to rushers with shorter arms. So again, next-gen stats, Will Campbell when going against defensive ends that had 33 and a half inch arms or longer, Will Campbell gave up a sack rate of almost 3%. When he was facing edge rushers who were under 33 and a half inch arms, that sack rate went from just under 3% to just over 1%. That is a significant difference.

Starting point is 00:04:08 And as Ben Solac pointed out, the Seahawks' entire room was built out of supersized rushers, and Campbell gave up an historic 14 pressures. So when you look at the numbers, yes, we talked about Will Campbell's Lange. we wondered how much would it bother Will Campbell? How much of a difference would it make? Well, in his rookie season, it did make a difference. Will Campbell was susceptible to pass rushers with longer arms. That is absolute.

Starting point is 00:04:40 But the question is whether or not Will Campbell can adjust to those types of pass rushers and be better against those types of pass rushers. Because if he could knock down that sack rate against those types of pass rushers with 33.5 inch or longer arms, if he can knock down that sack rate, then overall it stands to reason. Will Campbell is going to be a much better left tackle. So that's why we talk about technique.

Starting point is 00:05:11 That's why we talk about past sets, the past protection sets that you see Will Campbell trying to deploy. The better technique, the better pass sets, the better protection against guys who bother you. And Will Campbell obviously is making that one of the top priorities of his off-season work. The other part of it from Evan Lazar is Will Campbell getting bigger. And the surprise to me in Will Campbell's rookie season was that he wasn't very good at run blocking. And we all anticipated him being at least good, if not very good, and not aspect of his game.

Starting point is 00:05:51 and that really wasn't there consistently. So getting bigger should help Will Campbell in the run game. Understanding length did give him issues. Understanding that fact, he was still pretty good pre-injury. So even though the high sack rate that we talked about, the almost 3% sacrate against 33 and a half inch arm defensive ends, well, when you look at what Will Campbell, did, including those numbers, before he was injured, again, he was pretty darn good. Ben

Starting point is 00:06:28 Solac on Campbell's pass protection wrote before the injury, Will Campbell allowed a pressure rate of 11.1% by next gen stats model. The league average for a left tackle was 10.1%. So before the injury, Will Campbell was slightly below average in past protection when you look at pressure rate from the next-gen stats model. 11.1%. But after the injury, that pressure rate jumped from 11.1 to 18.4%. So clearly, the injury bugged him.

Starting point is 00:07:08 Also, clearly, he faced some of the best pass rushers and defenses in football post-injury. Now, pre-injury, when you look at the 11.1%, again, the league average for a left tackle is 10.1%. 1%, you know, two matchups pre-injury really hurt those numbers. Miles Garrett and Nick Herbig, facing the Browns, facing the Steelers, those two matchups gave Will Campbell a lot of trouble. Outside of that, I would say Will Campbell was average to slightly above average and

Starting point is 00:07:42 pass protection pre-knee injury. And so if you go off what he did last year, he should hit league average or be slightly better with more experience, better technique, and a more mature frame. And what you can't deal with is a Will Campbell who is below average to bad. And that's why he's easily, to me, the second most important patriot on this roster. He's got to protect the blind side of the most important patriot in Drake May. Just go back to the Super Bowl. We know how that ended.

Starting point is 00:08:17 And we know what Will Campbell did. mentioned it just a couple of minutes ago. 14 pressures on Super Bowl Sunday. You need Will Campbell to be at least average to hold his water at left tackle. Protect Drake May. If Will Campbell can't do that, you're going to ask more from all of your other guys, right? Elijah Vera Tucker will have to pay extra attention to the pass rush that's bothering Will Campbell. your tight ends, you're going to have to use them to chip and block.

Starting point is 00:08:51 We'll see how that goes, especially now that Julian Hill is done for the season. You're going to ask your running backs, Trayvion Henderson, to deal with some of that pass rush if Will Campbell can't consistently hold the water. You're going to ask Reggie Gilliam to do more as well. So Will Campbell is vital to this operation. And if Will Campbell can be average to slightly above average, that will give Camble. that will give Caleb Lomu the right amount of seasoning before he gets dumped into the starting offensive line, that front five.

Starting point is 00:09:26 So to me, the top two most important Patriots, easy to fill out that card. Drake May, Will Campbell. Easy. If Will Campbell has a good season, Drake May should feel a lot better about the heat he's going to face. Coming up, stratomatic tells us what to expect from Drake May, Romeo Dobbs, and more. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. Support for today's episode comes from Square, the business platform that helps sellers become neighborhood favorites. Whether you're

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Starting point is 00:11:05 you do. It is June, that time of the football year where we look at prediction models and they're all the rage. And stratomatic has run a simulation that has us scratching our for multiple reasons. We'll get to that in a minute. But first, thank you for making us your first listen. And for being an everydayer, get your daily Patriots fix completely ad free by joining the Everydayer Club today. Start your seven day free trial right now and get close to your team without the interruptions. Click the link in the show notes. We'll go to lockdown patriots. com to claim your free trial. Also, don't forget, say this every time. You know the drill. If you're watching us on YouTube, help a brother out. Click that thumbs up. Give us a like.

Starting point is 00:11:50 Throw a comment in is Will Campbell, your second most important patriot on this roster? Or do you have another name? I want to see those names. Don't forget to comment and don't forget to subscribe. Every year, Stratomatic has these predictions, has these projections. They run simulations. In NBC Sports Boston for the last several years, they have published these predictions. They have published a simulation from Stratomatic.

Starting point is 00:12:20 And this year, there were some interesting results. Let's start where we always start, the most important player on the roster, Drake May. Now, I expect a better Drake May. We have discussed that multiple times as we get ready for this camp. And Drake May, by all accounts, was terrific at mandatory minicamp. But how does stratomatic feel about Drake May's 2026? Here's what NBC Sports Boston wrote. Last year, Drake May completed a league best 72% of his passes for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions.

Starting point is 00:13:02 In the 26th simulation, he completed 65.2% of his passes. So that drops down to almost, you know, what, 7% for 4,300 yards, so less than 100 yards difference. 27 touchdowns. He drops down four touchdowns in 14 interceptions from eight picks to 14 picks. Stratomatic also has 93 rushing attempts for 424 yards in four touchdowns. And I look at these numbers and I vehemently disagree with Stratomatic. Drake May going from eight interceptions to 14 interceptions. 14 insurceptions is a monstrous number. Gino Smith last year had 17 picks.

Starting point is 00:14:00 Tuatunga Vilaoa had 15 picks. So Stratomatic is telling us that Drake May, as far as turnovers go, as far as picks go, he's going to be the equivalent in 2026 to what Gino Smith and Tuatunga Fialoa was in 2025. I find that incredibly hard to believe. I find it incredibly hard to believe that Drake May's interceptions are almost going to double this season. I also find it hard to believe that Drake May's completion percentage is going to drop

Starting point is 00:14:40 almost 7%. Again, last year, 72% of his passes completed. Stratomatic says 65.2% this year. So just under a 7% drop in completion percentage. Do you think that's going to happen? Do you think Drake May is going to drop almost 7% in completion percentage when his wide receivers are better this year than they were last year? Do you think that's going to happen with A.J. Brown and with Romeo Dobs?

Starting point is 00:15:15 I don't think it's going to be that significant of a drop. Now, will it drop? I wouldn't be surprised. 72% is a pretty crazy number. But my guess would be somewhere around 67 to 68% instead of hovering around 65%. Now, the touchdowns, I'm not going to go crazy. Touchdowns depend on run game. Touchdowns depend on your run game, especially inside the 10-yard line.

Starting point is 00:15:45 But I would kind of peg Drake May for 28 to 32 touchdowns somewhere in that region with a better run game. Last year he had 31. So if you're running the football more effectively and you're pounding it into the end zone and your short yardage is better, then Drake May will not have as many touchdowns, at least passing wise. I'm going to do a separate segment on AJ Brown's expectations. I'm planning it this week.

Starting point is 00:16:15 But what about the other pass catchers? Stratomatic on Romeo Dobbs. Romeo Dobbs finishes with career highs and catches with 62 and yards with 793, but a career low, two touchdowns. Two touchdowns. Romeo Dobbs and his rookie season had three touchdown. I can't imagine him having two touchdowns this season. I mean, if he's healthy.

Starting point is 00:16:43 You have a number of guys who are, are going to absorb a lot of red zone attention. A.J. Brown, Hunter Henry, your running backs. And I would find it pretty difficult to believe that Romeo Dobbs finishes the year with only two touchdowns. Hunter Henry, stratomatic on Hunter Henry. Hunter Henry remains one of May's go-to options finishing with 59 catches, 682 yards, and five touchdowns. I think that seems a bit high on the receptions, 59 catches. He had 60 receptions last year, and you look at him obviously being a year older. You look at many more mouths to feed in 2026. A.J. Brown, Romeo Dobbs, the hopeful development of a Kyle Williams. Patriots say they want to get Pop Douglas more involved. Trey Henderson,

Starting point is 00:17:38 if he can pass protect, will be more involved in the past game. Eli Rairden will get sprinkled in. So, you know, 59 catches pretty much equaling what he did a year ago. I think that's probably a little bit too high. I would lean more towards 50 catches than 60 catches. Stratomatic on Kishon Booty. What happens if Kishon Booty remains with the Patriots? Well, Strattomatic has him catching 25 passes for 350 yards and two touchdowns. I think that's pretty reasonable.

Starting point is 00:18:10 And it's why I don't quite understand Patriots fans who would be. all upset if Kishan Bouti were to be dealt. I mean, I think it's pretty reasonable to say 25 to 30 catches for 300 plus yards and a couple touchdowns. I mean, that's not going to be the difference, right? I mean, that's not going to be a huge difference. You would ask Kyle Williams and Matt Collins and others to pick up the slack and we'll get to pop in Mac in a minute. But you know, you look at those stats. Again, I think it's a reasonable projection for Kishan Bouty. You think about how many guys in that room and how you want to develop dudes. And the fact that he's walking into his contract here.

Starting point is 00:18:53 Stratomatic on Pop Douglas and Matt Collins. The Mario Douglas contributes 24 catches, 284 yards and one touchdown. So one last catch than booty, about 75 yards less than booty in one touchdown. Matt Collins, 14 catches, a buck 73 and two touchdown. So Stratomatic believes Mack Holland. believes Mack Hollins is going to be, it looks like, one of the guys who gets negatively impacted and significantly negatively impacted by the presence of AJ Brown and Romeo Dobbs. I think Pop could get a little more volume than that.

Starting point is 00:19:33 But the Mac Holland's role is going to be interesting. You know, how much is he used with the aforementioned Brown, Dobbs, and Kyle Williams? How much run does he get? Finally, Strattomatic says the Patriots will finish with a 9 and 8 record. I am very surprised by 9 and 8. I would be surprised if the Patriots don't hit double-digit wins. As part of the 9 and 8 season, Strattomatic has the Patriots losing four games straight, a four-game losing streak, starting week 7, finishing week 10.

Starting point is 00:20:12 So Stratomatics season prediction includes a four-game losing streak at Chicago, at Miami, home against Green Bay, in Germany against Detroit. And I just find it tough with this roster and with this coaching staff with Mike Vrable, I find it tough that the Patriots would lose. Aside from health issues that could pop up, I find it very difficult to imagine the Patriots losing four straight games. games, especially games that would include at Miami, at home against Green Bay, and a neutral site game against Detroit. So I am not picking up what Strattomatic is putting down. The patch struck gold on a cheap free agent deal last off season and may have done it again this year.

Starting point is 00:21:02 It's coming up next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Running a business shouldn't feel like you're trying to connect a bunch of systems that we're never designed to work together. One app for accounting, another for inventory, another for sales, and somehow none of them talk to each other. That's where Odu comes in. Odu is an all-in-one business management software

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Starting point is 00:21:45 isn't just about talent. It's about having everyone working toward the same goal. And that's true in sports, just like it is in business. Think about an adjustment, a coaching staff makes. The adjustment itself is important, but what really makes things click is how smoothly that adjustment gets implemented. Great organizations win because operations matter. And that's why you should get O-D-O-D.com slash lockdown. That's O-D-O-O-O-O-com slash lockdown. Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe. The Patriots had a busy offseason that included the acquisition of A.J. Brown. But one of their least expensive moves ended up being one of the biggest surprises of mandatory minicam.

Starting point is 00:22:34 Thanks for checking out the lockdown podcast network. Now the number one sports podcast network. Last year, the Patriots signed Kyrie's Tonga in March. Did you even know who Kyrie's Tonga was? and full transparency, I was unaware of Kyrie's Tonga's game, my friends. But Kyri's Tonga, he ended up being a revelation in 2025. And the Patriots signed Kyri's Tonga last offseason to a one year, $2.7 million contract. At the time, he was seen as a body.

Starting point is 00:23:14 maybe somebody who could contribute to the interior of the defensive line, maybe not, not necessarily a great pass rusher from the inside, somebody who was going to focus mostly on the run. And then Kyriez Tonga became crucial to the Patriots defense. And I wonder if the Patriots have found another Kyrie's Tonga-like acquisition. Mike Reese at ESPN over the weekend wrote about his biggest minicamp surprise, and he chose Mike Brown. Reese wrote, there's a question about who will be the top backup safety, and the 6'1-218-pound Mike Brown looks like the leading candidate. Brown was signed to a one-year, $1.35 million deal with a modest $50,000 signing bonus as an unrestricted free agent,

Starting point is 00:24:11 not the type of pact that comes with great expectations. But he was working as a top personal protector on the punt team and rotated in immediately after Kevin Byard and Craig Woodson on defense. And I would not be surprised whatsoever if Mike Brown ends up being safety number three on this team. Look at Mike Brown's history. Mike Brown was brought into Tennessee in 2023 by Mike Vrault. Remember, before Vrable was fired at the end of the 2023 season, he had the most say on personnel that he had had throughout his Tennessee career as the head coach. And so Mike Vrable was much more involved when it came to picking the groceries, as Bill Parcells once said.

Starting point is 00:25:08 And Mike Brown was one of the guys that Mike Vrable. brought in. Now, let's not get it twisted. It's not like Mike Brown was a top draft pick. You know, let's let's not get, you know, bananas or anything. He was undrafted in 2022 by the Vikings. He was on the practice squad of the Vikings, the Packers, then, you know, the Vikings again, then the Cleveland Browns. But something made the Titans scoop Mike Brown up in free agency in

Starting point is 00:25:41 2023 and he hung around in Tennessee through 2025 through last year. And so Mike Rable obviously saw something that made him like Mike Brown. The defensive coaching staff, many of those guys that are on this staff right now with the Patriots were on the staff of Tennessee back in, you know, 2023. And so there are a number of those dudes that are maybe looking at Mike Brown and saying, yeah, he's worth it. He's worth to bring in. and I trust the eye of Mike Vrable.

Starting point is 00:26:14 I trust the eye of this coaching staff. And Mike Brown, he just turned 27 years old. So he's really in the prime of his NFL career. It doesn't mean he's going to all of a sudden become this monster. But this is really when he should be hitting his stride as an NFL player. And he could fit that hybrid kind of tweener role, the safety slash linebacker role. You go back to 2022. Again, Mike Brown went on.

Starting point is 00:26:41 undrafted. But Lance Zerline of NFL.com had a scouting report on Brown in 2022. Here's what he wrote. Mike Brown will either be evaluated as a limited box safety with below average cover talent or a future linebacker in need of additional muscle in coaching. He has experience playing near the line of scrimmage, but will need to prove he can hold up against a more targeted block approach if he switches to linebacker. Then Zerlian finishes saying that Mike Brown, quote, has the size and traits for an NFL look, but starring on special teams might need to be his foot in the door. So maybe just maybe. Mike Vrable and the Titans coaching staff back in 2023 saw Mike Brown in a similar fashion. He's got the NFL look.

Starting point is 00:27:34 He has the size. He has the traits. you bring him in, you get his feet wet on special teams, you continue to work with him over time, and maybe just maybe, he becomes a contributor on your defense, whether it's safety, lineback, or both. And of course, you know, after 2023,

Starting point is 00:27:54 Mike Vrable was gone, so maybe Mike Vrable and the coaching staff, they look at Mike Brown, they say, untapped potential. He got lost in the shuffle, right, a couple of times before he got to Tennessee. brought him into Tennessee, played for us. We saw some of that potential, thought he might be able to contribute, maybe just on special teams, but maybe more,

Starting point is 00:28:18 just needed to have more coaching, more work done. And he didn't get that chance to get that coaching and work done because we were let go at the end of 2023. So it's a pretty interesting signing. And I would think that the Patriots have a specific role in mind from Mike Brown. I would also trust the coaching staff. I think this coaching staff is really good. And I would trust the coaching staff to utilize somebody like Mike Brown

Starting point is 00:28:47 to the best of his talents and to the best of his abilities. So I trust the coaching staff. And really the worst case scenario here is great camp competition for Del Pettis. But I think Mike Brown has an awesome shot at making this football team. And yes, I think the majority of, could be special teams, but I would not doubt he's getting snaps out there as a safety slash linebacker, that hybrid guy. So interesting name to watch throughout camp coming up in about a month or so.

Starting point is 00:29:24 That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen for being an everydayer. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio. And don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Hit that like button and subscribe. and if you never miss an episode, the Everydayer Club is built for you. Get Lockdown Patriots, ad-free, plus members-only Discord access. Yes, I'm in there and more.

Starting point is 00:29:46 Head to LockdownPatriots.supercast.com or check the link in the show notes to learn more. Have a great day and we will see you next time.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Must-Have: Will Campbell’s Role to Shield Drake Maye and Power the Offense

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