Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - New England Patriots Buffalo Bills Crossover: Bailey Zappe vs. Bills’ Pass Rush, Josh Allen vs. Pats’ Secondary

Episode Date: December 28, 2023

The New England Patriots are headed to Western New York for a New Year’s Even matchup with the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. Host Mike D’Abate ‘crosses the streams’ with Joe Marino of Locked On Bills to preview the matchup from both Pats and Bills perspectives. From Bailey Zappe, Ezekiel Elliott and Christian Barmore to Josh Allen, James Cook and Ed Oliver on this Crossover episode.Find and follow Locked On Patriots on your favorite podcast platforms:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/locked-on-patriots-daily-podcast-on-new-england-patriots/id1140512627?i=1000632782469 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1c5ZxFmwg3WbfxAU3tR5Ve?si=k196wH-yRqifUcQQz8SjIQStitcher: https://www.stitcher.com/show/locked-on-patriotsAnd follow host Mike D’Abate on Twitter, where he’ll be sharing the latest news about the New England Patriots and talking with fans.Twitter: @mdabateNFLSupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!DoorDashGet 50% off up to $10 value when you spend $15 or more on your FIRST order, when you download the DoorDash app and enter code LOCKED23. Subject to change. Terms apply.PrizePicksGo to PrizePicks.com/lockedonnfl and use code lockedonnfl for a first deposit match up to $100!GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONNFL for $20 off your first purchase. Last minute tickets. Lowest Price. Guaranteed.LinkedInLinkedIn Jobs helps you find the qualified candidates you want to talk to, faster. Post your job for free at LinkedIn.com/LOCKEDONNFL. Terms and conditions apply.FanDuelScore early this NFL season with FanDuel, America’s Number One Sportsbook! Right now, NEW customers get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS with any winning FIVE DOLLAR MONEYLINE BET! That’s A HUNDRED AND FIFTY BUCKS – if your team wins! Visit FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON to get started.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG(CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat(CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The New England Patriots have the chance to go for the series sweep of the Buffalo Bills this weekend. No, it's not 2007, but it is time to cross the streams. Stick around. You're about to be locked in to the Locked On Patriots podcast. You are Locked On Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello to all of you, Foxborough faithful, and thank you once again for making Locked On Patriots

a daily part of your New England Patriots coverage. Don't forget, Locked On Patriots is available on all platforms, including YouTube, so make sure to download, subscribe, and follow to ensure that you get the latest episode as soon as it's available. I'm your host, Mike DeBate. I cover your New England Patriots for Patriots Country of Sports Illustrated. Reach out to me and let me know what's on your mind on X at M-D-A-B-A-T-E-N-F-L. While you're out there showing some love to Locked On Patriots,

please be sure to follow our account there as well at L-O underscore Patriots. And Pats fans, it is that time of the week. It is crossover time here on the Locked On Podcast Network. And the New England Patriots traveling to Orchard Park, New York, and Highmark Stadium going to face the Buffalo Bills this coming Sunday, New Year's Eve, 1 p.m. kickoff. And if it's the Patriots and the Bills, that means the Locked On Patriots and Locked On Bills crossing the streams. And without further ado, I welcome in my good friend and colleague, Joe Marino, host of the Locked On Bills podcast, as we bring you this crossover between Locked On Patriots

and Locked On Bills. This crossover Thursday episode is brought to you by PrizePix, the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports. Go to prizepix.com slash LockedOnNFL and use code LockedOnNFL for a first deposit match up to $100. I'm Joe Marino, host of LockedOnBills, joined by Mike DeBate, the outstanding host of LockedOnPatriots, here to get you ready for Week 17, the 9-6 Buffalo Bills hosting the 4-11 New England Patriots. But a Patriots team that seems to have some life here lately. They've won two of their last three after a 2-10 start.

Bailey Zappi, now the starting quarterback. They're 2-2 with Zappi as a starting quarterback. Defense is looking good. The Bills obviously trying to get to the postseason. A lot at stake here for these two football teams. Mike, welcome, and our second crossover of this season. Always a good time chatting football with you. Oh, absolutely, Joe. One of the best times of year. The holiday season always seems to include a little Patriots and Bills football,

and what better way to cap the 2023 season, almost, almost cap the 2023 season with a little Patriots-Bills up in Orchard Park. Always my honor and privilege to share the mic with you, my friend. Well, let's dig into it, Mike. Kind of got into some of the buzzy things with New England with them winning two of their last three, Bailey Zappi sparking this offense, defenses playing quite well. I know the Bills are big favorites in Orchard Park, but the Patriots are quite the formidable opponent, especially with it being a division team.

What's the big story right now coming out of New England? Well, you know, the talking heads and the click seekers are going to tell you that the biggest story in New England right now is whether Bill Belichick is about to coach his penultimate game as head coach of the New England Patriots. That is a big story, y'all. I'm not going to lie to you. But no matter how badly some may have wanted to be, it's not already written. I think that's still a story for another day. And the more you're hearing now from New England is that these are conversations that have

yet to take place, and rightfully so. I'm thinking right now the biggest story in New England is whether or not Bailey Zappi is playing his way onto the roster for 2024. I'm not quite ready to go out on a limb and say this kid has to be strongly considered to be the Patriots starting quarterback next season, but he's making an argument and he's getting better a little bit each and every day. And he's making the moves that you need to make as a backup quarterback to ascend to a starting role that we didn't see Mac Jones make earlier this season. His stat sheet against the

Broncos is not going to illuminate any type of highlight reel. 25 of 33, 256 in terms of yardage and two third quarter touchdowns. But what I thought was very interesting coming out of this game, Joe, is that all 33 of his pass attempts, not one throw that he made was considered a turnover worthy pass. So that's something that is a step in the right direction for Bailey. And again, I watched him make his progressions against the Denver Broncos. This is a very difficult defense to read. They give you multiple looks.

You know, they're going to give you dime looks. They're going to give you nickel looks. They're going to give you a lot in their base defense. Bailey Zappi was able to adapt and was able to pick it up fairly quickly and attack what they didn't do well. These types of formations that can trip up a young quarterback have only seemed to give him more fuel to the fire to make things better. So when you start seeing him play, his confidence gets higher, taking more shots down the field, gets more aggressive on third down. New England Patriots offense all of a sudden looks serviceable. And for Patriots fans, that's enough because for so long this season,

it looked less than that. It's been a long time since we've seen some offensive progress here in New England. And I think that's the biggest story right now is how can Zappi continue to move forward in the face of adversity and really essentially a lost season in New England. Well, you know, Zappi, a historic college career at both Houston Baptist. And then, of course, what he did at Western Kentucky, a ton of production. And it feels like just from an instincts perspective, he feels like a more instinctive player to me than Mac Jones. And I think what's impressive about what Zappi's been able to do is he hasn't necessarily had the players around him in terms of just availability.

Guys being hurt, Juju Smith-Schuster, offensive line injuries, Ramondre Stevenson. And he's been able to step in and, you know, not be the guy from day one and give this team some juice. And that's what they needed after that rut. I mean, it was like three weeks in a row they scored just, what, a total of like 14 points or something like that. And then for them to get to Zappy and see it have some life to go with the defense. Like the defense has been solid all season long. The run defense is really just not giving you anything. And so, yeah, I think

you can look at this Patriots team and say 4-11 end of the season, but I think the context there tells you that this is an important game and a huge game for the Buffalo Bills. And as I get into the big storyline on that side of things, Mike, the Bills have kind of dug themselves out of a big hole. They had some costly losses, one of them being to the New England Patriots, losing to the Jets, having some really goofy losses along the way, but they've climbed themselves into a situation where they're now the number six seed in the AFC playoffs, and there's an opportunity for them

to win the AFC East for a fourth consecutive season. They dug themselves out of the hole, and in fact, there's 14 different playoff clinching scenarios for the Bills this weekend. None of those scenarios include the Bills losing to the Patriots. All right. So you can get big brained and talk about playoff seating and if they can win the division next week and all that type of stuff. None of that matters. If you don't take care of business against the New England Patriots, and let's face it, the Bills lost to a lesser version of this Patriots team earlier this season. And you had Mac Jones in that game registering his first ever game-winning drive. They scored a season-high 29 points.

They used motion. They were very efficient on offense, 364 yards, over 50% on third down. Yeah, the same Patriots offense that got to the point where they replaced Mac Jones with Bailey Zappi. Right. So like I said, you lost to a lesser version of this team. And you know, I think we'll get into this a bit more in the matchups part of the conversation, but the Patriots gave the bill some trouble and obviously the one, the game. So that is obvious, but thinking about just their defensive game plan and how they were able to free up some free runners at Josh Allen

and the protection issues that the Bills had in that game, and then for as below average as the Patriots' offense has been this year, it wasn't in that game. So I think you need to learn a lot from that game and not take anything for granted. We talked about the wild card path is open. There are clinching scenarios. Very logical, like not even hard things. The Bills win, the Seahawks beat the Steelers and the Chiefs beat the Bengals. The Bills punch their ticket to the postseason,

but they also have an opportunity to win the division. If the Bills beat the Patriots and the Dolphins lose in Baltimore, week 18 18 Bills Dolphins in Miami is for the division so it's all right there for the Buffalo Bills to still do it but it doesn't happen without beating New England this week so I trust that the Bills will come into this game focused ready to go you heard Josh Allen in his press availability on Wednesday talking about hey if he was in the Patriots side of things and the season didn't go like they wanted, but they'd love nothing more to spoil a division rival's hopes for the playoffs. Obviously, there's a lot at stake for players every single week in the NFL. We've seen

this Patriots team. They've won two of the last three. They've beaten a couple of decent football teams along the way, and the Bills can take nothing for granted. I think the big storyline for the Buffalo Bills is the opportunity here. Yeah, absolutely. And I'm glad that you mentioned the need for a team to evolve and to grow and really grow into their strengths. You mentioned how the Patriots did that and how their offense, the last time these two teams played, was very efficient,

using motion and whatnot. Having a quarterback like Bailey Zappi, I think, has helped them to grow into that strength. Give the Bills a lot of credit, too. I think they've done that. They've had their offensive struggles earlier in the year. For whatever reason, things weren't clicking. The switch from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady looks like it has really elevated that running game for Buffalo. Not only are you seeing James Cook emerge as a really top back in this conference, maybe even in this league. But you're seeing guys like Latavius Murray, Ty Johnson, Leonard Fournette now into the

mix with the Buffalo Bills, really using that running game to open things up and help Josh Allen out a little bit. And even on the defensive side of the ball, the pass rush experienced some growing pains earlier with guys like Ed Oliver, AJ Epinesa, and guys like that really coming into their own. This is a much improved Bills team from the team that the Patriots saw just a few weeks ago as well. So I think it makes for a very entertaining and potentially really good matchup on Sunday. All right.

We are going to dig more into those matchups. I definitely want to get into the run game dynamics. You talked about pass rush on both sides. It's going to be interesting. So stick with us. But, folks, you got to check out PrizePix. PrizePix is the funnest, most exciting, easiest way to play daily fantasy sports. I love the format.

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I'll allow you to go first. What pops for you? Well, right now, if you're the New England Patriots, in order to gain any traction and in order to hope to carry some of the momentum you have offensively over into this game, New England has to establish the run. That was actually an area where I think they could have done a much better job against the Broncos. Albeit their top back, Ramondre Stevenson, has been on the shelf with an ankle injury. But if there's an area where this Buffalo defense could be ripe for the pickings for New England, it's establishing the run. Buffalo right now in the middle of the pack and run defense.

They're certainly not deficient in that area, but not among the league's top teams. They're allowing a shade over 111 yards per game, but on a per carry basis, that number drops to 4.6 yards per attempt. That's near the bottom of the league. So what Ezekiel Elliott and company need to do is take their running game away from simply between the tackles and try to get some traction early on, try to maximize each carry, especially on the early downs. they can start to chip away at where Buffalo is really good. And that is stacking, making sure that your opponent is always playing from a position of weakness rather than strength. And then they can really go to work on you. So right now, from an offensive standpoint, at least from a Patriots side of things, I'm watching the running game a little bit more than I'm watching Bailey Zappi going against that secondary right now.

That's going to be an extremely tough matchup for Bailey, but if they don't get a complimentary run game going, I don't think it's going to matter much what Bailey is doing. The Buffalo defense can lock you down when they know they've got you down. Yeah, I think that's a good call-out, and I think running the football is something that you feel like with teams facing the Bills and the potency of Josh Allen in the offense, you kind of know that on a weekly basis,

testing that run defense is going to be a big part of the opposition's formula, and I'd expect nothing less with the Patriots coming into Orchard Park for this football game. And I think on the flip side, I think the Bills rushing offense against the Patriots' run defense is going to be important, and it's a little bit different. You kind of talked about some of the statistical issues that the Bills have had. They've given up some explosive runs. I think a lot of that was a little bit earlier in the season. I think lately the run defense has been much, much better. But

you talk about a good run defense. I think you point your finger right to the New England Patriots who've held their last six opponents under 85 rushing yards, nine of the last 10 opponents under 85 rushing yards. And this is going to be an interesting foil because the Bills have run the ball really well. They've gone over 100 yards in each of their last six games with some huge, huge days against Dallas, big day run of football against Philadelphia, big day run of football against Denver, right? So there's been some good success. You mentioned James Cook and his emergence as a top back in the league, third in the entire NFL, third in the entire NFL behind Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey in yards from scrimmage.

Number three is James Cook. So, you know, that's going to be an interesting dynamic to see how the Bills, if they can have success against New England running the ball, because New England hasn't really been giving up rushing production. And so I know stylistically the Bills present some different challenges than other teams, but I think that's going to be a big story. And in this football game is, you know, how both teams run the football. And it's interesting, Mike, because we got Josh Allen, we got Bailey Zappi, who sparked this team. So we both really wanted to start this conversation with the run game dynamics offensively for both teams. Yeah, it is. It's interesting. And it just goes to show you the strengths of these teams and

how certain storylines that fall under the radar for most franchises really become top of the line. They really become top of mind when the Bills and the Patriots play one another. The chess match between these two teams who know each other so well, it's the little things that can matter. And again, you mentioned Buffalo and the emergence of James Cook. One of the big reasons why that Patriots run defense has been so stingy is the emergence of Christian Barmore, who's been a beast along the Patriots front seven. That ability to push the pocket and his strength, but also his fluid movement, his hand placement. That makes him someone that the Bills have to account for, but he hasn't been alone.

Guys like Lawrence Guy, Devon Godchow, Anthony Jennings, Dietrich Wise, Juwan Bentley. I can keep naming guys that have come up big for that Patriots run defense. Yeah, it's going to be a challenge for Buffalo to run the ball against this team. But again, there is a dynamic there with that multifaceted rushing attack that does give me pause to say, oh, this is an automatic feather in the cap for the Patriots. Patriots are going to have to earn every stop they get because Buffalo is that much better than a lot of the competition

they played recently at being able to effectively move the ball on the ground. And you've got to give Joe Brady some credit for that as well. I'm also interested in the Bills' protection schemes, pass protection schemes against the New England Patriots. We know that the Patriots will blitz, right? 33% blitz rate, seventh highest in the NFL. And if you go back to week seven, the Bills lost to the Patriots. They blitzed Josh Allen 50% of passing plays. That's a huge, huge number. And they got pressure on 41% of all passing plays. And so I thought they did such a good job in week seven of scheming up their rush. And, you know, it's not, we talk about pass rush and sometimes it's really cool to see a pass rusher run a circle

around an offensive lineman and make a play. But a lot of times there's a coordinated rush and you're trying to free up runners. You're trying to create advantageous one-on-one battles. And I thought the Patriots coordinated such a good rush plan in week seven. And I think it really flustered the Bills offensively. It flustered Josh Allen. And I think that's going to be a big test this time around. I think for the entire season, I think the Bills offensive line and pass protection has been really good, but there's been some leaky moments. And one of them being against this Patriots team in Week 7. You mentioned Christian Barmore. What, he had three sacks last week against Denver?

And Barmore's one of those guys going back to Alabama. I've always thought to myself watching him play that he's going to be as good as he wants to be because he's not lacking anything. He's explosive. He's got good technique. And when that motor is cranked, man, he's a load to deal with. Josh Uche is healthy.

He wasn't healthy last time these two teams played. And his speed dynamic that he presents off the edge is a big deal. Dietrich Wise, long arms. He's a really good piece of that rush because I think he can set picks and allow guys to kind of take some free lanes. And he can win one-on-one as well. And you know they're going to blitz guys from different angles, DBs, linebackers. So the big point I'm trying to make here is the Bills protection schemes, which I think failed in week seven have got to be better

this time around. And the Patriots come at this from a position of strength because they set the tone, they won the first battle. And now it's on the Bills to not only figure out how to be better against what they did, but also now you've got to anticipate what's coming and be able to get ahead of what's coming, where the Patriots can really get creative with how they want to attack it. And I felt like just going back to week seven, whether it was the offensive game plan or the defensive game plan for the Patriots, it felt like it was a long time in the making. It felt like this was a big priority. I think the Bills had

that recent success against New England and Belichick and his staff, I think put a lot into, all right, what, what do we really need to do to expose some issues for the Bills? And I thought they did that in week seven and we'll see what the counter punches look like in week 17. Yeah. And I think that counter punches are definitely going to be something that is going to concern New England. They do have to win those battles up front with the pass rush and the goals offensive line because the Patriots secondary right now is extremely banged up. You're looking at a rookie in Alex Austin. You're looking at Jonathan Jones, who is a solid corner, without a doubt their top corner.

But he's been battling knee and ankle injuries all season long. He's kind of hobbling along right now a little bit. That's an area where the Patriots might be a little bit deficient. Sean Wade, obviously, there's talent that always flashes, but bottom line, folks, I mean, he hasn't had a whole lot of pro-level experience to add to that resume. And then you've got the workhorse, Miles Bryan, who's really pretty much doing a little bit of everything right now. But there are always issues when it comes to his ability to cover as well. So if Josh Allen is able to stay ahead of that pass rush and keep them neutral, that's where I think they're better suited than they were when these two teams played in Week 7. Allen has been much more willing to spread the ball around.

And I think that's going to help him in this game. Gabe Davis is starting to come into his own play into the name that he's made for himself over the last few years. Khalil Shaker, Trent Shurfield, they've been more involved. I like the fact that they've gotten the tight ends more involved, whether it be Dawson Knox or Dalton Kincaid. These are going to be guys that the Patriots have to attend to and they have to account for. Every single one of them is capable of making the play when needed. So again, if the Patriots are going to win those battles up front, it's going to be up to Usha. You mentioned Barmore, Jennings taking a more active role. Dietrich Wise, these guys have to be on their game because if Allen is able to pick apart that secondary, it's right for the Pickens for him to do so this week. All right, a good deep discussion here on the matchups.

You can sense it from both sides here that there's a lot of different dynamics in this one that are going to be important, and I think that's when you know an opponent so well. I mean, this is the 15th time Belichick has went up against McDermott. There's a lot of familiarity here, and so the answers are in the margins, right? It's in the margins. And hopefully Mike and I are doing a good job of unpacking that for you. All right. In just a moment, we're going to talk about the path to victory for both sides. We're going to offer a prediction as well. So be sure to stick with us. But folks, when you're hiring

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easier and quicker. So post your job for free at linkedin.com slash locked on NFL. That's linkedin.com slash locked on NFL to post your job for free. Terms and conditions apply. All right, Mike, it's time to talk path to victory and offer a prediction here. And from the Bill's side of things, I have three critical factors down in the path to victory. Number one, and I'm not necessarily saying number one is this is the most important. I have three things that I think are all really important. But the first thing that I'll mention is getting the ball out of Josh Allen's hands. They struggled to diagnose those free rushers in the last game, and I thought they struggled to do a good job of replacing the blitz with the ball.

And so, you know, they were blitzing like crazy. And where the blitz is vulnerable is where are those guys left? Where do they come from? There's space available. Throw the ball there. And I think that the Bills need to do a better job of baking in answers for Josh Allen against these aggressive pressure looks and getting the ball out. And I think that the Bills need to do a better job of baking in answers for Josh Allen against these aggressive pressure looks and getting the ball out of his hands.

And hopefully, for the Bills' sake, that looks a lot better with Joe Brady coordinating the offense than it did with Ken Dorsey back in Week 7. So I think some efficiency in the passing game and getting the ball out of Josh Allen's hands into playmakers is important. And then I think just from there, there's some athletic advantages that you have. I don't think the Patriots are super dynamic athletically at linebacker. We'll see if Peppers can go at safety.

That's going to be important. But I think they're missing some of their back seven and missing some athleticism that the Bills should try to do their best to take advantage of. And I think their best way to do that is going to be getting the ball in the hands of playmakers and having them win after the catch. Because I don't think the vertical passing offense is really going to be there. The Patriots don't give up explosives and the bills vertical passing game hasn't been consistent this year. So I think your recipe there is quick game, ball out quick, win in space.

Number two is turnovers. And in a game like this, where we've talked about running the ball, we've talked about a protection issues on potentially on both sides of the equation. Drives that end in kicks are not a bad thing. And we know, I think, I mean, come on, everybody understands that Josh Allen has the propensity to turn over the football. He scores a lot of touchdowns, but he also, he'll put the ball out there, you know, once or twice in a game. And I think taking care of the football, valuing the ball on both sides of the equation is going to be critical. And I think, you know, the Bills overcame their last game against the Chargers where they were three nothing in takeaways. They turned it over three times, didn't get get any takeaways and they were able to win that game.

That doesn't typically happen. And I think it's going to be important for both teams to value the ball in this one and understand that drives that end in kicks are not a bad thing. And then the last thing is just keep Bailey Zappi guessing. He's a young quarterback. He's had some success, but he's a young quarterback. And I think your experience on the defensive side of the football at all levels, your coaching that you have, should be able to mix up the looks, disguise coverages, and really present a lot of challenges

that keeps Bailey Zappi guessing. And like I said, I think he's a much more instinctive player than Mac Jones, and that has led to the success that he's had recently. But I still think you need to make him prove it against you, and I'd be willing to be aggressive with blitzes. I'd be willing to be aggressive with some tighter alignments where you're playing some press, getting in the face of receivers,

throwing off progressions and timing, and even some softer looks to just keep it mixed up and keep his head spinning the best that you can. I know that he's shown a lot of poise this year, but I would test that the best of my ability defensively. Absolutely. And I think those are excellent points to make. And I also have a three-pronged attack about the way that New England will want to approach this game. And the first is limiting turnovers and penalties and egregious self-inflicted wounds that the New England Patriots continue to put themselves in holes and this has been a problem for this team all year long especially when it comes to the

turnover differential Joe the Patriots are right now at minus seven in turnover differential they're a different team when they protect the football it builds momentum it preserves it Bailey Zappi is able to play with confidence when they don't and this is true of whether Zappi is in there or whether Matt Jones is in there. It really derails what this team does well. It puts a lot of pressure on the defense to make stops and to be flawless. And against the Buffalo Bills, good luck with that. That's not something that the Patriots have the luxury of being able to say,

we can go in there and pitch a shutout. This team's way too talented for that. And it also puts an undue amount of pressure on a young quarterback like you mentioned in Bailey Zappi, and it's going to force him into mistakes. They need to play mistake-free football, and the way they do that is to protect the football and not commit costly turnovers, costly penalties, missed tackles on special teams. This has been a problem for this team all season long, so they need to be fundamentally sound. And if the Patriots are fundamentally sound, they can pretty much have

a puncher's chance with anyone. The other side of that in part two is aggressiveness, not just on the offensive side of the ball, taking shots downfield, which we've seen Bailey Zappi do, but keep the foot on the accelerator on defense, play this team aggressively on defense, take away the opportunity for them to remain comfortable, and always keep them guessing. And that includes maybe forcing a turnover of their own. Jelani Tavai and Marte Mapu come into this matchup, Joe, each having forced a turnover in the last two games that have led to some big moments for New England. They had a pick against Kansas City, a forced fumble against Denver. Look for those guys to be active, especially if Jabril Peppers is either limited or out for this game. It's going to be a big game for Marte Mapu and Jelani Tavai to show that aggression.

And lastly, I come back to what we talked about this a little bit in the previous segment, but it's so important for the Patriots to establish the run early. Bailey used the deep ball to get things going against the Broncos last week. It worked because the Patriots to establish the run early. Bailey used the deep ball to get things going against the Broncos last week. It worked because the Patriots played to the weakness of the Denver Broncos defense. They're not going to have that luxury this week against a much better Buffalo defensive front and secondary. So if they can find a way to get traction on the ground, it's going to make things easier for them in so many aspects. So there's my three-pronged attack for the way the Patriots can pull out an upset victory in Orchard Park this weekend. All right.

Well, let's make a prediction here. If the Patriots are going to pull off that upset or not, the Bills, 12-point home favorites as of the recording of this podcast, courtesy of FanDuel. The over-under set at 40.5 in terms of total points. So Vegas is not seeing a ton of points in this football game. And so this is where I have it. I completely see the path for the Patriots to play spoiler. I absolutely do, especially with the way that they're playing, the way that they're playing on defense, the run defense.

I mean, they're not giving up yards to anybody, dude. I'm sure you're keenly aware of this. They're not on defense, the run defense. I mean, they're not giving up yards to anybody, dude. I'm sure you're keenly aware of this. They're not giving up yards. They're very good on defense, and if they cannot beat themselves on offense, I think that'll be really, really important. I don't think the Bills lose this game. They've been a really good team at home this year. Their only loss at home was Denver in a game where the Bills turned it over

four times and then, of course, had that very costly penalty at the end of the game where the Broncos missed the game-winning field goal, but the Bills had 12 men on the field and they got a second chance and they made it, right? That was their one loss at home. They've been a very good team at home. They've had their hiccups on the road, whether it was at New England, at the Jets, at Cincinnati, London, right? Again, the Jacksonville game, right? That's where their hiccups on the road whether it was at new england at the jets at cincinnati london right again the jacksonville game right that's where their hiccups have come

haven't come at home i think they take care of this one we'll see what happens with baltimore miami but i think that they get their their 10th win and uh have a good chance at punching their ticket to the postseason uh but they they better show up and and not take this one for granted because this patriots team will beat you i I have the Bills winning this one 27-13. Yeah, I agree with you in that regard. I don't think the Buffalo Bills lose this game. Like you said, they're playing for playoff spot. And all of these scenarios that include them being able to set up next week's game

with the Miami Dolphins for potentially the AFC East and defending that division crown starts with them getting a win against the Patriots. And right now, the Bills just have too much in all three phases, I think, for the Patriots to overcome. Pats are always going to have that puncher's chance. I think they keep this one closer than some may think. But ultimately, I do think the Bills end up taking this. I have them winning this 24-17, limiting Bailey Zappi in terms of his ability

to get the offense going. And I think they're able to get some traction against this defense that's going to have a lot put on its shoulders this weekend on New Year's Eve. So there you have it. The crossover preview in the books, but there's still plenty of coverage coming your way, both on lockdown bills and lockdown Patriots. So for all the pre and post game coverage you could handle, make sure that you are subscribed to both of the podcasts.

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