Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts Crossover: Bill Belichick Coaching for his Job?

Starting point is 00:00:00 You are Locked On Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. This is your daily podcast covering the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots. We're part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. And this Crossover Thursday episode is brought to you by PrizePix, which is the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports. Just go to prizepicks.com slash locked on NFL and use code all lowercase locked on NFL for a first deposit match up to $100. What is up, everybody? I am Jake Arthur from Locked on Colts.

Starting point is 00:00:58 This is my friend Mike DeBate from Locked on Patriots. And today we're going to take you through the journey that is Colts Patriots Week 10 in Germany. That's a big one. We're going to walk you through the biggest matchups, who are going to be the most critical players, what's the biggest storylines, and ultimately, who's going to win this one. But remember, obviously, TV stuff might be messed up going on with the timing of this game being early morning for you.

Starting point is 00:01:24 Don't know what your arrangements are, but remember when the Colts play the Patriots this Sunday at 930 a.m. Eastern, you can catch every snap of the hometown broadcast with Sirius XM on the SXM app. Search either Colts or Patriots. Well, Mike, I cannot believe that we are already at week 10. It's finally that time of year where I'm like, where did all of this come from? But the Colts and Patriots are kind of making an annual thing out of this matchup. This is three years in a row. But this year, it's a battle of two teams that are struggling,

Starting point is 00:01:56 both under.500, Colts at 4-5, Pats at 2-7. There's been lots of talk this week about Bill Belichick's job security. Surprisingly enough, he's kind of seemed like one of those Teflon guys. But is that the biggest storyline of the week for you guys? And if not, what else is? Yeah, I would say that the biggest storyline is Bill Belichick potentially coaching for his job on Sunday. And Jake, you mentioned it as saying those words and then hearing them as host of Locked On Patriots. It's surreal. It really and truly is.

Starting point is 00:02:27 And each and every time we mention it on Locked On Patriots, it only gets even more surreal. Look, I don't think there's anyone that's questioning whether Bill Belichick has already stamped his ticket to Canton. There's no question about it. It's only one of three NFL head coaches that have 300 or more victories, guided them to six Super Bowls, basically been the driving force behind this dynasty for 24 years, along with Robert Kraft and of course, Tom Brady on the field. But you're talking an eight-time Super Bowl champion in all, a three-time NFL coach of the year.

Starting point is 00:02:59 Bill Belichick has been to the puppet show and seen the strings, as I like to say, on Lockdown Patriots. But, you know, bottom line, Jake, the reality is that with last week's loss, New England dropped to 2-7 for the first time since Bill's first season as head coach in 2000. That's a long time to go where you're looking at five games under.500 and probably another playoff miss, almost certain at this point. They're 0-5 in non-division games. They're the only NFL team right now without a win outside of their division. And again, this is like a same type of broken record

Starting point is 00:03:34 that's happened the last couple of years. Failing to qualify for the playoffs twice already since Tom left, three times it's looking like it's going to be. Is the third time going to be what finally moves the needle for Robert Kraft and that ownership group to say, we've had enough of Bill Belichick. We're moving in a different direction. Patriots fans have dealt with the thought of possibly Bill Belichick leaving before, but it was always on his own terms.

Starting point is 00:03:59 Is Bill Belichick ready to move on from the Patriots? Does he want to go elsewhere and bring another dynasty or bring another team to glory? You never heard, are the Patriots ready to rid themselves of Bill Belichick? But that's the reality where we are right now. And it's a huge story in New England. Yeah, I bet it is. And it seems like one of those things where it's like, maybe it doesn't look like a firing, but they mutually agree to part ways.

Starting point is 00:04:24 Because I just, I can't see Bill Belichick being someone who gets fired. You know what I mean? maybe it doesn't look like a firing but you know they mutually agree to part ways because i just i can't see bill belichick being someone who gets fired you know what i mean just with all the success uh colts still trying to kind of even sniff the beginnings of those types of levels right now kind of obviously paving their way with uh shane steichen right now uh four and five it's it's been interesting uh they it used to be a thing where they had to lean on the defense so much and then it just seems like neither side of the ball wants to play together for 60 minutes you know it's either the the offense powers them through or the defense does um but yeah this week i'm looking for them to to build just their second

Starting point is 00:05:00 win streak of the season uh going to the bye week on a high. You know, they got the Buccaneers coming in after this. But let's see if they can put together a total team effort. Last week, obviously, a lopsided win over the Panthers, 27-13. But Kenny Moore had two pick sixes. The defense scored the difference in that game. The offense, it wasn't too smooth. They were 4-13 on third down, only 198 yards of offense overall. Gardner Minshew, 65% completions, but just a 4.9 yards per attempt. So the run game

Starting point is 00:05:35 just wasn't really hitting pretty much like every other team since Gardner Minshew has taken over to be the starter, has prepared and loaded up to stop the run game, whether it's Zach Moss and or Jonathan Taylor. And at a certain point, you know, it's going to win when you're just facing those big of a mismatch. So let's see if first the Colts have to get the win, of course. But can Gardner Minshew in the run game, can they play as a cohesive group and actually put up a decent showing on offense? And then can the defense do their thing as well? They generated pressure last week, which is something they rebounded

Starting point is 00:06:13 from not being able to do against the Saints. They got the turnovers, obviously. Kenny Moore with the two picks. Saguna Luby had an interception. So even special teams had its struggles. They lost a fumble on a punt return, and they gave up several, it seemed, big returns in the punt and kickoff game. So, this is just a team. We just haven't really seen all three phases or even the two main phases come together and really finish out a game.

Starting point is 00:06:41 So, that's number one. You got to see them win these type of games. They're supposed to, like they did against the Panthers last week. But you don't want it to be a fluke. finish out a game. So that's number one, you got to see them when these type of games are supposed to, like they did against the Panthers last week, but you don't want it to be a fluke either. Like it didn't seem like a cheap victory last week, but you know, you didn't come away feeling super rosy about it. Yeah, without question. And I think New England Patriots fans can definitely identify with a lot of the things that you were saying, putting together a complete team effort, something that the Patriots really saved for their game against the Buffalo Bills, where they did earn the victory, have not done this year. Even though

Starting point is 00:07:13 they've been in four one-score games, which has given them an opportunity to win those games, the Patriots still never put together that type of complete team effort that you need to see for teams to be victorious. You look at those games, and all of a sudden you start to realize why they lost, whether it was poor protection from the offensive line or whether it was a breakdown in coverage in the secondary or in the middle part of the defense, which has been strong routinely. But the last couple of games, we've seen them break down a little bit and really start to feel some of the injuries that they have on that

Starting point is 00:07:45 side of the ball, whether it be Matthew Judon in the pass rush. They certainly miss him there. They really miss Christian Gonzalez in that secondary and that lockdown presence that really keeps them in games. JC Jackson was brought in to help spell that a little bit. He's not making the trip to Germany. He's having a, what they're calling a get right period between now and the bye week, and then trying to get himself more engaged to the team in the final seven games. So Patriots have a lot going on right now. And again, as we go back to Bill Pelichick, it makes for a perfect storm of him coaching for his job. And it makes that story that much more interesting in the long run. So yeah, I think Patriots fans can identify with what the Colts

Starting point is 00:08:24 are going through. Although the Colts seem to have a little bit more headway as to where their future is headed, Patriots right now, a lot of uncertainty in Foxborough for the first time in over two decades. Yeah, perhaps a little bit of a break for the Colts. I mean, Braden Smith practiced on Wednesday and you mentioned no Matthew Judon.

Starting point is 00:08:40 I think that's a huge sigh of relief considering what happened last year. But next up up we're going to tell you guys what the biggest matchups of the day are and what's going to be the difference in winning and losing whenever the game clock stops that means it's time to order in with doordash why root for your favorite team on an empty stomach order on door dash and save on your watch party favorites get 50 off up to a 10 value when you spend at least 15 or more on your first order when you download the door dash app and enter code locked 23 subject to change terms apply uh when my wife and i travel

Starting point is 00:09:19 we are the type of people who refuse to eat somewhere that we could have eaten uh locally in central Indiana. We want something, you know, you can't get every day and we're actually going to be traveling this weekend. So I know probably at least twice over this long traveling weekend, we'll probably dial up DoorDash on the phone and go ahead and get some of the local favorites that again, we just can't get in central Indiana. You know, you don't have to just go to a storefront and do it. DoorDash will tell you exactly what the local favorites in that spot are. So we're definitely going to be looking into doing that this weekend.

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Starting point is 00:10:45 And with that, you got two of the experts right here. That's what we're here for. Mike, so I'll open the floor to you. When you look at this whole thing, whether it's a group-on-group or an individual matchup, I mean, the Patriots are going to be underdogs, of course, but what do you see on here that you think is going to be the biggest difference in whether or not they win or lose? Well, up until about 24 hours ago, Jake, I probably would have said the Patriots run game and trying to establish and get a little bit of traction early on against

Starting point is 00:11:15 that Indy defense, because so much of what New England does offensively is predicated on establishing the run early. It opens up play action. It allows Mac Jones to be able to complete his passes. It allows the offensive line to be able to get into position to protect the pass. If they're getting sound blocking from that interior, the Patriots are so driven on the run in terms of being a catalyst of what they love to do. Not so much that their run game is going to put up monster numbers, but they need to be able to show teams, opposing teams, that they can run early and often, especially on early downs, because it allows them so much more freedom to do what they love to do

Starting point is 00:11:50 in the play-action schemes of Bill O'Brien. However, I'm going to actually pivot, and I'm going to say now what I'm looking forward to most is watching New England's depleted secondary and whether or not they're going to be able to step up to the challenge and stop Gardner Minshew and the Indianapolis Colts aerial attack. Look, since taking over, Minshew is that type of gunslinger, that type of guy that can win you games with his arm. He can just as easily make mistakes and turn it over. So the Patriots are going to have to try to do everything they can to show that side of Gardner Minshew as opposed to the other. It's going to be a very difficult task to do so, though, for the New England Patriots. As I said earlier, J.C. Jackson will not be active for this game.

Starting point is 00:12:33 He's not making the trip. The Patriots are already without Christian Gonzalez for the year. They're without Marcus Jones for the year as well, who is a solid option in the slot. Everybody knows his prowess as a punt returner, but Marcus was developing into quite the sound slot corner, and even on the perimeter a little bit, his speed would have definitely been an asset in this situation, especially with all of the injuries they've had. He's out for this game.

Starting point is 00:12:56 So it means Jonathan Jones is going to have a large load on his shoulders, and Jonathan's been banged up with ankle injuries, knee injuries. He's trying to play through. But you'll see on Sunday, and we've seen the last couple of weeks, Jonathan is still hampered by these injuries. He's not 100%. So it's going to continue to be whether or not he can take this group and make sure that they're up to the challenge. Jack Jones was essentially benched for the first quarter of last week's game.

Starting point is 00:13:24 Now we're learning because of punitive reasons, missed a couple of curfews. There was some performance issues against the Dolphins. So he's still someone that still needs to prove himself. Miles Bryant's been a jack of all trades out there, but there've been times where he's looked like an average corner and been easily beaten on routes and the opposing passing games can take advantage of it. So this is definitely interesting when it comes to what the Patriots can do and do well, because you know, the Colts love to employ their physical receivers. Michael Pittman is going to be someone that I expect Minshew to target an awful lot, try to step up a little bit, and they're going to try

Starting point is 00:14:02 to make life easier for Gardner and the problems the Patriots are having at the cornerback position, they make it a lot easier for them to do that. Yeah, honestly, it's a relief to hear you say that because it feels like the last few weeks, if the Colts run game isn't working, then the offense in general isn't working. Because, I mean, Gardner does a lot of dinking and dunking and just hasn't really pushed the ball down the field too much. And when he gets out of the pocket, you know, things break down quite a bit. So the passing game has been really clunky lately. So this feels like a real get right opportunity for them with just the hardships that New England is facing in that secondary.

Starting point is 00:14:42 But I do just come back to that run game because that's what we know is the best part of the Colts offense. Their offensive line, you know, they've had injuries, but in terms of performance, they've been performing a lot, a lot better like they were a couple years ago as opposed to last year when it was just a total disaster. Like the last offensive line that the Patriots saw, not the same one this time around luckily because that was a train wreck that was the game that got Frank Reich officially fired

Starting point is 00:15:09 but no so my biggest matchup that I want to watch is the Colts run blocking versus the Patriots run defense because again like I mentioned earlier defensive defenses has just been loading up on the line there was five or six linemen, like every snap it seemed like, last week against the Panthers, and it worked. I mean, the Colts just weren't very successful on the ground because teams are telling Gardner Minshew to beat them. So the Patriots run to, you know, their fringe top 10 unit, 11th at 100.8 per game.

Starting point is 00:15:43 I'm really intrigued to see if the colts are going to be able to crack that because we have seen at times where we know that defenses are going to load up to stop taylor in the run game but he's been able to to have success anyways and so if the colts passing game isn't clicking then they're're going to have to do something. Because a game like last week against the Panthers just really kind of worried me. Again, 27-13, but without those two pick sixes, what do you have? You have an offense that was really struggling and couldn't pass the ball very well. The defense was loading up to stop the run. So that's just what I really worry about in this one,

Starting point is 00:16:24 because a staple of Bill Belichick is that he just what I really worry about in this one. Cause a staple of, of Bill Belichick is that he's going to take away what you do best. And for the Colts, it's obviously the run game. Absolutely. So well said. And look, new England has been relatively good and stout against the run. Most of this season, the second in the NFL, they're allowing just 3.5 yards per carry. As you mentioned, 11th in the league in yards per game at 100.8. So that's going to be very telltale as to where the Patriots are going to go. I do expect them to load up on defense to stop the run. That means a heavy dose of someone like Christian Barmore, who really has been a huge boost to that interior of their defensive line.

Starting point is 00:17:00 He's been very good in pass rush, but he's also been a beast against the run. And I think that's where they're going to focus a lot of efforts this Sunday because of the fact that it is Indy's bread and butter. Jonathan Taylor and Zach Moss are a formidable one-two combination. Patriots are going to have to count for that. That means guys like Lawrence Guy, Devon Godchow, and even the rookie Keon White, who everybody loves to say is the next generation pass rusher for the New England Patriots. This year, he's actually been better against the run than he has the pass. He's been very good in the middle. So look for a heavy dose of those guys for New England

Starting point is 00:17:34 to try to contain Moss and Taylor. But if those guys can get on track and they can start running the football effectively and get early yards, it's going to be a very long day in Deutschland for the New England Patriots, because right now you really worry about that secondary holding up. If their interior starts to break, yeah, things could get ugly in a hurry for New England. Yeah, you kind of keep having to remind yourself that this game is not in New England or

Starting point is 00:17:59 Indianapolis is in Germany, and there are just outside factors at play that, you know, are probably going to come up that we just can't anticipate but we have told you guys a lot about this matchup so far so coming up who do we think is going to win don't be caught unprepared everyone you should be empowered to care for yourselves and your loved ones during the unexpected. The Jace case provides five life-saving antibiotics for emergency use. All it takes to get a Jace case is fill out a simple online form and in some cases jump on a quick call with one of their board certified physicians. Jace handles everything from online evaluation to licensed pharmacy medication

Starting point is 00:18:40 delivery and ongoing consultation care. Get ongoing care from their physicians on any treatment-related questions. Jace Medical, doctor created, doctor recommended. Okay, Mike. So, again, a battle of two teams under 500. One of them looks to get to 500 with this one. One of them just needs a lifeline thrown to him. I'll put you on the spot. Who do you think wins this game out in Germany?

Starting point is 00:19:10 You know, up until a couple of weeks ago, I was really looking forward to this game in Germany for the New England Patriots. Obviously, this has been a long time coming. The Patriots have a large German following over in Frankfurt. Robert Kraft and the team ownership uh flanked with former patriot sebastian volmer have really looked to try to cultivate that relationship overseas so i know a lot of patriots fans were looking forward to this game and especially it being against a rival like indianapolis even though peyton manning and tom brady have long since retired and doesn't

Starting point is 00:19:39 quite have that same cachet there's still those old feelings of patriots cults that make this one nostalgic and a lot of fun. But this could be a problematic matchup for the New England Patriots for all the reasons that we've stated. The Pats are coming in with some pass game issues. Mack Jones can be effective when he has the time to make throws, but the offensive line has been a gamble. The last couple of games, they've been a little bit better, and the Patriots have still managed to find ways to beat themselves. One of the big keys that I think is really solid for the Patriots' victory, or at least in terms of bringing them to victory, is to win battles on third down. The last two games, they have not done that. One for nine against the Miami Dolphins,

Starting point is 00:20:20 three of 12 last week against the Washington Commanders. If they put out a similar showing this week, it's not going to matter what the offense is able to do, both from the run or the pass. It's just not something that's going to work. And Indianapolis has the defense to be able to contain New England. So again, Jake, they have to establish the run. They have to go at that Indianapolis defensive front. Tafaris Buckner, one of the best in the league at being able to keep other teams' best options at bay. There are a lot of guys also on that line that can hurt you, including my former schoolmate, Quiddy Paye, who went to Bishop Hendrick in high school

Starting point is 00:20:55 in Warwick, Rhode Island, which is where I went to school. Quiddy is a much better athlete, folks. Do not hold that against me, but he is a tremendous guy as well. But always glad to see him do well. I had to get that Quitty Pay reference in there. But ultimately, if the New England Patriots can exploit that matchup and establish the run, then I do think they're going to be able to at least keep this one competitive.

Starting point is 00:21:17 The eternal optimist in me, Jake, continues for me to say that the Patriots are eventually going to get this one right. They're playing for Bill Belichick's job. I think the Patriots come back from overseas with a win. Finally, I have them taking this one 20 to 17 on a Chad Ryland field goal. But you're asking if I would bet the farm on that one, folks. Yeah, I'm not going to do it. I just can't do it with this group of New England Patriots. So I'm going with my heart more than my head on this one.

Starting point is 00:21:44 But it would not shock me to see the Colts take this, Can't do it with this group of New England Patriots. So I'm going with my heart more than my head on this one. But it would not shock me to see the Colts take this, and maybe even comfortably, if the Patriots don't stop inflicting self-inflicted wounds. Yeah, I love it. I've been in that boat with the Colts several times earlier this season. No, so I have the Colts winning this one 24-13. And the reason being is because the defense showed up last week against the Panthers. If they didn't do their part, I would feel a lot worse about this matchup. They harassed Bryce Young throughout the game,

Starting point is 00:22:17 and that's a guy who can get out and move a bit. I mean, he picked up some yardage with his legs, even over the middle. I think they'll be able to corral Mac Jones even better than that. But some guys I think are starting to find their mojo, pass rushing again. They started out hot at the beginning of the year and then really cooled off. Quitty, like you mentioned, got a half sack last week. They're starting to get some stuff from some of their younger interior guys, Adetome, Adebuare, and johnson both got in for some action dial at dangbo so

Starting point is 00:22:47 they're starting to get some real contributions from guys that aren't even the full-time starters some rotational guys so i like seeing that because it's good they can give that considering their vulnerabilities against the run right now i mean like you mentioned deforest buckner is great but without grover stewart out there while he serves his PED suspension, it's just been kind of rough, especially when Taven Bryan is out there. And Bill Belichick and Bill O'Brien are going to be able to, they know that. They know where the Colts are vulnerable right now. So if the Colts can kind of stop the run a little bit, but even if they can't, if they can counter that with getting to Mac Jones and disrupting the pass game a little more, I'll feel comfortable.

Starting point is 00:23:26 Kenny Moore is in an absolute zone right now. Julian Blackman is doing really well. Daryl Baker had a bounce back performance last week. Jalen Jones is a rookie who's getting better all the time. So I feel better about the defense because they were terrible against the Saints two weeks ago, but they bounced back really nice last week. So I feel better about that. Offensively, you've kind of helped me get to where I'm at right here, because even if the Colts cannot establish the run

Starting point is 00:23:54 and they just keep hitting a wall, what have you, it sounds like Gardner Minshew, being a veteran, can identify enough vulnerabilities in the Patriots secondary or back seven in general to be able to kind of attack that. And even if it's not downfield passing enough to move the chains and keep drives alive and be successful in the red zone, or just get into Matt Gay territory for six field goals, if he needs to. But I am, I feel comfortable with the Colts in this one a bit more. Again, I'm going to say 24 to 13 Colts.

Starting point is 00:24:26 Interesting. And I think that you make a lot of good points. And again, folks, a lot of these international games can be very interesting in terms of feeding off of the crowd. It's a neutral crowd. It's a crowd that both of these teams are not used to playing in. It's an environment that they're not used to playing in. I think that's also a factor in all of these games. We've talked to a lot of Patriots this week that are making their first trip overseas for the very first time. And there's going to be a lot of wide-eyed situations, I think, on both sides of these locker rooms with players that are really entranced with seeing how a different culture and how a different environment is going to absorb American football and then be able

Starting point is 00:25:04 to cheer it on. So I'm looking forward to it. I think it's going to be a lot of fun and early kickoff here on the East Coast, folks. 930 a.m. I always say take a win when you can get it. Yeah, I know that feeling from last year. It was it was full tank season for a while. For a while.

Starting point is 00:25:20 There was there was really no salvaging that one. But if you guys don't already follow follow at LockedOnColts and at LO underscore Patriots on Twitter slash X, whatever you guys call it. Be sure to subscribe on YouTube as well to both shows and wherever you get your podcasts if listening is more your jam. We would love your guys' ratings and reviews as well. We'll see you guys on Friday, but as well after the game.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts Crossover: Bill Belichick Coaching for his Job?

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