Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - New England Patriots: Takeaways from Loss to Buffalo Bills, 2024 NFL Draft Scenarios

Episode Date: January 2, 2024

The New England Patriots fell to 4-12 on the 2023 NFL Season with a 27-21 loss to the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on New Year’s Eve. While the Pats may be preparing to bring down the curtain o...n a disappointing year, there is still much to be determined regarding their selection position for the 2024 NFL Draft. Host MIke D’Abate breaks down Bailey Zappe’s performance, New England’s standouts on defense and whether the Patriots still have a chance at the No. 2 overall pick.Find and follow Locked On Patriots on your favorite podcast platforms:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/locked-on-patriots-daily-podcast-on-new-england-patriots/id1140512627?i=1000632782469 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1c5ZxFmwg3WbfxAU3tR5Ve?si=k196wH-yRqifUcQQz8SjIQStitcher: https://www.stitcher.com/show/locked-on-patriotsAnd follow host Mike D’Abate on Twitter, where he’ll be sharing the latest news about the New England Patriots and talking with fans.Twitter: @mdabateNFLSupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!BetterHelpThis episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Make your brain your friend, with BetterHelp. Visit BetterHelp.com/LOCKEDON today to get 10% off your first month.PrizePicksGo to PrizePicks.com/lockedonnfl and use code lockedonnfl for a first deposit match up to $100!GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDON for $20 off your first purchase.LinkedInLinkedIn Jobs helps you find the qualified candidates you want to talk to, faster. Post your job for free at LinkedIn.com/LOCKEDONNFL. Terms and conditions apply.FanDuelScore early this NFL season with FanDuel, America’s Number One Sportsbook! Right now, NEW customers get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS with any winning FIVE DOLLAR MONEYLINE BET! That’s A HUNDRED AND FIFTY BUCKS – if your team wins! Visit FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON to get started.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 The New England Patriots were unable to complete the comeback on New Year's Eve, falling to the Buffalo Bills 27-21 at Highmark Stadium. But was it a good loss or a bad loss? Stick around, you're about to be locked in to the Locked On Patriots podcast. You are Locked On Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello and Happy New Year to all of you, Foxborough faithful. Thank you once again for making Lockdown Patriots a daily part of your New England Patriots coverage. Don't forget, Lockdown Patriots is available on all platforms, including YouTube.
Starting point is 00:00:55 So smash that subscribe button, download and follow to ensure that you get the latest episode as soon as it's available. I'm your host, Mike DeBate. I cover your New England Patriots for Patriots Country of Sports Illustrated. So reach out to me and let me know what's on your mind on X at M-D-A-B-A-T-E-N-F-L. And while you're out there showing some social media love to Lockdown Patriots, please follow our account there as well at L-O underscore Patriots. And Pats fans, today's episode is brought to you by PrizePix, the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy
Starting point is 00:01:28 sports. Go to prizepix.com slash LockedOnNFL and use the code all lowercase LockedOnNFL for a first deposit match up to $100. And once again, Foxborough faithful, thank you so much for joining me here today, kicking off your
Starting point is 00:01:44 2024. Little bit of an unexpected change in venue caused us to have to call an audible today. But no matter where we're broadcasting from, how could I start the new year without showing my appreciation to all of you everydayers out there? All of you casual listeners, and for those of you joining us for the first time. Those of you who make Locked On Patriots possible, a sincere Happy New Year, best wishes for an amazing 2024 to all of you listening to and watching this podcast today.
Starting point is 00:02:13 And you're in a wing when Patriots, well, they were also not about to conclude the 2023 calendar year without making a little noise, putting up a little bit of a fight, but unfortunately the prowess of the Buffalo Bills, along with those self-made obstacles that the Patriots just keep putting in their way, proved to be too much to conquer. And with just over five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter of yesterday's game,
Starting point is 00:02:38 the Pats were unable to secure a third down stop on an 11-play, 35-yard drive in which the Buffalo Bills killed the clock. The Patriots eventually lost the game 27-21 at Highmark Stadium. And with the loss, the Patriots now drop to 4-12 on the season. And with it comes the danger of finishing the year with the fewest wins in a single season during Bill Belichick's tenure as head coach. That's right, folks, got to go all the way back to 2000 when the Patriots only won five games. And you're all
Starting point is 00:03:10 aware, I'm aware, every one of us is aware of the implications this loss, including the upcoming week 18 game against the Jets, is going to have on Bill Belichick's future as head coach of the New England Patriots. We're going to show that as a conversation for another day because we are going to get into that here. But for today, folks, those members of. But for today, folks, I know there's a lot of you out there in Patriots Nation. I'm one of them that are still searching for some silver linings. Well, you'll be happy to know that New England, because of the loss to the Bills on Sunday, is now in position to secure the number two overall selection in the NFL draft. Yeah, that's right. It's not going to be an easy path, but there is a way to get there,
Starting point is 00:03:55 thanks in part to the Arizona Cardinals' upset victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. Yeah, folks, if that surprised you, you weren't't alone it surprised me as well but because of that the ongoing fluctuation between the Patriots and the Commanders and even the Cardinals into the mix now puts the Patriots in position to be able to contend and I say that tongue-in-cheek folks but they are in a position to be able to snag the number two spot in the NFL draft order that's going to be dependent on strength of schedule. And again, we're going to get into that in just a moment. But for the time being, let's stick to the on-field takeaways.
Starting point is 00:04:32 And even though a loss like this does not instill confidence for either their short-term or their long-term future, I thought the Patriots demonstrated a resilience and a resolve in Week 17. Something that says to me this group of Patriots is willing to fight through adversity. And at the very least, that should welcome in this new year with a little bit of optimism. What better place to start than with the quarterback? And we're going to talk about Bailey Zappi's performance, folks. Early mistakes really defined this game for Bailey Zappi, but I wouldn't be doing my job
Starting point is 00:05:07 unless I said that I was somewhat impressed with his second half effort, his willingness once again to fight through adversity. Now Bailey entered this game having recently demonstrated pretty sound protection of the football. He was almost being universally praised for it. I talked about it several times here on Locked On Patriots. Even Bill Belichick was praising him heading into this matchup for taking good care of the football. But in the first half, those first 20 minutes, the 20 minutes Bill Belichick called terrible 20 minutes,
Starting point is 00:05:38 and he was right, there's no sugarcoating that, Bailey threw more interceptions in that first half with three of them than he did in his last four starts combined before Sunday. Yeah, that's right. He only had two interceptions heading into this game in his previous four starts. And no one's questioning whether Bailey deserves some of the blame for that. There's no question about it. But I thought he fell victim to Buffalo's pressure when throwing some of those picks. Two of them really want to give a lot of credit to Bill's cornerback, Russell Douglas, who I thought had a very good game in
Starting point is 00:06:09 reading Bailey Zappi on Sunday. He did return one of them for a touchdown. Douglas has been a very good acquisition for Buffalo. So to struggle against a cornerback that is very good and playing at a high level right now is something that unfortunately is part of the game. But the one thing that I really noticed about Bailey and his resilience is even after the Patriots four turnovers in the first half. And yeah, he had the three picks, but there was also the fumble by Farrell Brown, which gave the ball back to the Bills. That happened on the Patriots first six series. Four out of the first six series, the Patriots turned the football over.
Starting point is 00:06:43 That's egregious. If we're being honest, no team should even the football over. That's egregious. If we're being honest, no team should even be able to sniff a comeback at that point, but the Patriots did it. Bailey settled down. He began to find a little bit of a rhythm, scrambling for 17 yards and earning his first career rushing touchdown. He also played a major part in orchestrating that seven play, 84yard scoring drive that resulted in the six-yard touchdown run for Zeke Elliott. Bailey ended up finishing the day having completed 16 of 26 for 209 yards overall. Again, folks, not going to illuminate the stat sheet, not going to stand out on the highlight reel, but the more I watched of him in the second half, his mechanics under
Starting point is 00:07:22 pressure started to improve a little bit throughout the game. Again, don't get me wrong, Zappi had his share of bad moments. There were inaccurate passes, there were misreads. That led to some missed yak opportunities down the field, which I know Murph was upset about, and he'll talk about that when he joins me here tomorrow, folks on Locked On Patriots. But bottom line, Zappi being under pressure did not help his cause. And some of that has to fall on the shoulders of the offensive line, particularly that left side. They continue to struggle in pass protection. And that was the case again on Sunday.
Starting point is 00:07:57 Now, folks, the reasons for Trent Brown's absence in this game are going to continue to be debated in the coming week. We're going to give it its just due here on Locked On Patriots this week because there is a lot to unpack there and whether or not he deserved to be on the field, what went into Bill Belichick's decision making, but I think we can all agree that the Patriots clearly missed his presence along the left edge on Sunday. Radarian Lowe started in his place on the blind side. Antonio Mafi gets the start at left guard in place of Cole Strange, who's on season-ending
Starting point is 00:08:27 IR. Now, the rest of the line was expected. David Andrews still at center, City So at right guard, Michael Wainu at right tackle. That was your primary unit. Jake Andrews got a few snaps yesterday, his first NFL career snaps just before halftime, but ultimately, that's really the unit that the Patriots rolled with for most of the game. And that unit had difficulty protecting against the blitz and the stunts of the Buffalo defense. They were able to put three sacks on Bailey Zappi, and two of them came from Terrell Bernard,
Starting point is 00:08:55 who we talked about last week here on Locked On Patriots, is coming into this matchup as someone who might be hampered a little bit because of an ankle injury. Well, he's tough. He definitely played at a high level on Sunday, and those two sacks in the second half, they really helped to put on ice any hopes that the Patriots had for a potential comeback, but I think really where they struggled was on the left side. Moffey in particular had difficulty when he was required to change direction, and we talked about this a little bit last week folks Bill's defensive tackle at Oliver is one of the best in the league when moving laterally he had to do that on Sunday against the Tony Omafi his athleticism is much greater than the rookies Oliver thrived when moving laterally on Sunday and that explosive
Starting point is 00:09:41 first step that he has which I believe is one of the best in the league, was really on full display. He had a tackle for a loss, a sack, an interception, and ultimately it just helped keep the Patriots offense off balance all day long. Now, there are a lot of people out there saying that Buffalo didn't have its best game, and I completely agree with that. I don't think Buffalo was at the top of their game on Sunday, but I also think it does a disservice to the Patriots and mostly to the Bills by saying that they were either unimpressive or that they performed poorly or that they were lucky to get the win. Credit to the Bills. They made the plays when they needed to. I thought the Patriots did a decent job of that in the second half, but again, not enough. That first half was too much for them to overcome, and that's why the Bills beat them on Sunday. So the tip of the cap to the Buffalo Bills,
Starting point is 00:10:29 I happen to think that the Miami Dolphins are going to have their hands full with this Buffalo team coming up this weekend, but conversation for another day, maybe even another pod. Patriots are squarely focused on their Week 18 matchup with the New York Jets, and in addition to Bailey Zappi and the Patriots offense showing some signs of life, some signs of fight in the second half, you want to head into this matchup with some positive takeaways from Week 17. Players who stood out on the field might be able to build upon that performance this coming Sunday. There were some on-field standouts that deserve some attention,
Starting point is 00:11:03 and when we continue, I'm going to tell you who made my New Year's Eve Silver Windings Book of Accolades to stay locked in to the Locked On Patriots podcast, a proud part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team, every day. listeners football season is here and there is no better time to use prize picks the largest independently owned daily fantasy sports platform in north america in fact they're the easiest and the most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports it's just you against the numbers instead of battling thousands of those other players including the pros and the sharks out there you pick more than or less than on a two to six player stat projection and watch the winnings roll in prize picks is the most fun i've had winning up to 25 times my money this football season you just select two or more players pick more or less on their projected stats and place your entry and listen up folks you are gonna love this with the
Starting point is 00:12:02 prize picks reboot policy your entries stay in play even if one of your players gets injured. And that's for football games and for basketball games. If you have a player who exits the game in the first half and does not return in the second, that player is rebooted. And PrizePix is the only daily fantasy sports platform with injury insurance. And if you're a Patriots fan and you're looking at that injured reserve list in New England, you know all about the need for injury insurance. So don't delay. Do it today. Go to prizepicks.com slash locked on NFL and use the code locked on NFL for a first deposit
Starting point is 00:12:40 match up to $100. That's a first deposit match up to $100 by going to prizepicks.com slash locked on NFL and use the code locked on NFL. That's L-O-C-K-E-D-O-N NFL Prize Picks. Daily fantasy sports made easy. Patriots fans, thank you once again for spending part of your New Year's Day or possibly part of your January 2nd morning here on Locked On Patriots. Once again, I'm host Mike DeVate.
Starting point is 00:13:16 Flying solo today. Do not fear, folks. Your favorite and mine, our good friend Thomas Murphy, will be joining me here on Tuesday. We're going to break down all of the Patriots' ups and downs, ins and outs on their loss from the Buffalo Bills. And don't forget to get your mailbag questions in because we're going to be doing a mailbag episode as well. A lot to come here this week on Locked On Patriots, so make sure to stay locked in, download, subscribe to, and follow. And in what has been the story of the season for the New England Patriots, folks,
Starting point is 00:13:46 a sound showing by their defense ultimately doomed by a sloppy start on offense. And that's exactly what we all saw in Orchard Park yesterday. Four turnovers in the first half, just too much for the Patriots to overcome. But if we're being honest, there were some good moments for the Pats. Some of the Patriots standouts were clearly on the preventive side of the ball. That's right, folks. The defense once again coming up big. Don't forget, four turnovers in good field position. The Patriots were still able to hold Buffalo largely in check for the first half.
Starting point is 00:14:18 That's an amazing showing and something they deserve an awful lot of credit for. And that effort's made possible by individuals giving everything of themselves, maybe even playing above their expectation. And those types of players are guys that I include in what I like to call my book of accolades, my silver linings book of accolades. And first entry into that book from Sunday's game was Alex Austin. And I want to give him a tip of the cap for his first career interception he picked off Josh Allen in the second quarter I thought this was a pretty good read I thought
Starting point is 00:14:50 Austin showed both athleticism and sound field awareness and there had to be a little bit of revenge on his mind as well he might not admit it but don't forget folks it was the Bills that picked Alex Austin in the seventh round, number 252 overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. He ended up getting cut loose, but the Patriots clearly saw something in this kid, and you see it on the field. He's a quick study. He's gaining an awful lot of trust out there from his teammates.
Starting point is 00:15:17 And let's not forget that he was kind of thrust into action, especially into the starting lineup, when he may not have been fully ready to do so because of JC Jackson unfortunately going down with some personal reasons. Austin is someone who accepted the responsibility and is taking the opportunity to get better each and every day and you have to respect that. So some well-deserved accolades to Alex on this and I think a bright future potentially for the New England Patriots down the line. Now the next two players that I'm including on my silver linings book of accolades, yeah, they're there an awful lot.
Starting point is 00:15:48 And there's a reason for that. These guys have been two of the brightest defensive stars for the Patriots all season long. And I'm talking about Jelani Tavai and Kyle Duggar. Tavai was one of two people to earn 10-plus tackles on Sunday. He earned that distinction for the second time this season. Don't forget, he finished with a career-best 14 total tackles against the Pittsburgh Steelers in week 14, finished yesterday's game with 10 tackles, and again, every time there's a big play, he's always right there. That's not by happenstance, folks. That's by design. Jelani
Starting point is 00:16:19 Tavai has been one of the Patriots' most reliable defenders, and when the book is written on the 2023 season for the Pats, I know it's not going to be a pleasant one, folks, but if there's not a line item or a portion dedicated to the job that Jelani Tavai did in this defense this year, then it's not really an accurate portrayal. He deserves the accolades, and he should be getting them. And with all due respect, he is getting them
Starting point is 00:16:42 from a lot of the Patriots' media and also from his coaching coaching staff so great job once again by Jelani Tavai but if we're talking intestinal fortitude as the late great gorilla monsoon would say that intestinal fortitude award needs to go to Kyle Duggar Kyle reportedly came into this matchup battling a pretty nasty illness as a matter of fact it kept him from practice on Friday, almost kept him out of the lineup completely on Sunday. But he entered this matchup, and he still finished with 10 total tackles. Much like Tavai, it's the second time he did that this year, folks. He had 15 against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 4.
Starting point is 00:17:22 Kyle, in this matchup against the Bills, also forced a fumble. He broke up a pass, and he earned a quarterback hit on Allen. I know he's a free agent at the end of the season. I know it's not going to come cheap, but the prowess and the ability and the intelligence that Kyle Duggar brings to that defensive backfield, along with the synergy he's developed with Jabril Peppers, really tells me this kid belongs in a Patriots uniform. I would hate to see him go elsewhere. I really hope that's not going to be the case. If I'm making my decision, I'm saying the Patriots need to keep him in New England. But again, I don't get to make those decisions. But again, those decisions are above my pay grade, folks.
Starting point is 00:17:58 But I know a lot of you out there appreciate what Kyle Duggar does. And hopefully, the New England Patriots front office will as well in the offseason also want to give a little love to Christian Barmore and Keon White because these guys were instrumental in keeping Buffalo's running game at bay and they even wreaked a little havoc in the passing game as well and I also want to give some love to Dietrich Wise Jr. who I thought had a solid game in taking on the unenviable task of attempting to contain Josh Allen. He had four tackles, a quarterback hit, a forced fumble, and he did have a sack resulting in a 15-yard loss. So a lot of Patriots standouts on defense. I thought the unit once
Starting point is 00:18:36 again played great, and unfortunately it was the same old narrative. A good defensive effort derailed by offensive problems suffered early on in the game. My next entry comes from the offensive side of the ball, but also from special teams, and I thought he may have been the standout performer for the Patriots yesterday overall. It's going to elicit some groans from some of you. Some of you may support it, but I want to give a lot of love to Jalen Rager, who I thought by far had his best game as a Patriot and maybe one of his best games as a pro. Look, this kid has not been a statistical standout since joining New England, but in my opinion, he's proving his value to the team as both a returner and a pass catcher. Obviously, you cannot talk about yesterday's game unless you give him
Starting point is 00:19:21 some props for returning the opening kickoff 98 yards for a touchdown that happened on the very first play of the game that was actually the longest return of Jalen's career his previous best was a 44 yard return in October 2021 versus Kansas City while he was a member of the Philadelphia Eagles but it wasn't just his personal best folks Rager also made some Patriots history yesterday. It was the fourth time in team history that the Pats have returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown. It's been a while since the last one happened. Bethel Johnson was the last Patriots player to take the opening kickoff for a touchdown, 93 yards against the Cleveland Browns in December of 2024.
Starting point is 00:20:03 But wait, folks, there's more Patriots history that's made. It was also the first kickoff return for a Patriots player since Cordero Patterson did it, a 95-yard kickoff return for a touchdown against the Chicago Bears in 2018. And last but certainly not least, it earned the distinction of being the longest kickoff return for a touchdown for New England
Starting point is 00:20:22 since Deion Lewis did it back in 2017 against the Broncos. That was a 103-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. So great stuff from Jalen Rager, and I think only the best is yet to come as a kick returner. He looks so much more comfortable in this role, and he looks so much more ahead of where Ty Montgomery was when he was doing this earlier in the season. I still love Ty as a player, and I'm not knocking him when I say this, but Jalen Rager has shown that I think he's a better fit for this role, and I think he may have found his niche here as a New England Patriot, but he also showed some prowess as a receiver. He connected with Bailey Zappi on a 39-yard reception
Starting point is 00:21:01 in the fourth quarter. That was his longest reception as a member of the Patriots. His previous best was a 28-yarder that he had off of a Bailey Zappi pass in Week 16 over the Denver Broncos. So Jalen's confidence continues to build, and when this kid plays with confidence, he was a standout athlete in college. This is someone that can definitely do the job. All he needs is a chance to prove himself.
Starting point is 00:21:23 Now, if we're being honest, his performance wasn't perfect yesterday. He did have an apparent miscommunication, ran the incorrect route. That, I think, contributed to one of Bailey's interceptions. That may prevent a lot of people from saying that his performance will be remembered fondly. But again, I think Jalen is showing enough improvement to warrant serious consideration for a return to the team in 2024. If I'm the Patriots, you've got to give this kid at least a second look for deciding whether or not you want to keep him rostered for 2024. So those are my silver linings from this week 17 loss to the Buffalo Bills. And folks, we've only got one game left on the docket.
Starting point is 00:22:02 The curtain is going to fall on the 2023 season as the Patriots host the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium next week, Sunday, January 7th at 1 p.m. Yes, folks, that's been confirmed as a 1 p.m. game. The league confirmed that just before midnight on New Year's Eve. So the Pats will be playing the afternoon game on Sunday. And how much we'll be riding on that game? Well, we're going to get to the personnel implications on this one a bit later this week,
Starting point is 00:22:28 but when we come back, we're going to take a deeper dive on what the Pats and other teams have to do to put your favorite team in Foxborough in the spot for the number two pick in this year's draft. Stay locked in to the Locked On Patriots podcast, folks. A proud part of the Locked On Podcast Network,
Starting point is 00:22:44 your team team every day Patriots fans the NFL regular season is wrapping up but there is still time to get in on the action with FanDuel America's number one sports book and right now new customers can get $150 in bonus bets guaranteed. That's when you place a $5 bet. That's $150 in bonus bets, win or lose. If you're thinking of trying FanDuel, don't delay. Do it today. The app is so easy to use, and there are so many different ways to bet, like live, same-game parlays.
Starting point is 00:23:20 You can find your bets in the new Explore tab. Make a parlay in the Parlay Hub. That's the best way to find popular parlays. And folks, there's so much more, you've got to see it to believe it. So visit FanDuel.com and make your first bet a layup. FanDuel, official partner of the NFL. Patriots fans, thank you once again for joining me here on this special New Year's Day edition of Locked On Patriots fans thank you once again for joining me here on this special new year's day edition of locked on Patriots and here today on the pod we've been breaking down takeaways from the Pats
Starting point is 00:23:51 27 to 21 loss to the Buffalo Bills what it means for the offense what it means for the defense what could potentially be down the line for special teams but ultimately the question on everybody's mind is what does it mean for the Patriots draft positioning? And Pats fans, it's been a long time since the fan base has been this divided. Some of you are still rooting for as many wins as possible. Others are embracing the loss to improve the team's draft standing. Now, I've never hid my feelings on this subject. I have, I still believe that wins, whether the masses think they are meaningless or not, always do more for the psyche and the best interest of the team than purposefully dropping
Starting point is 00:24:32 a game just to secure a prime draft spot. To me, it sends the wrong message, especially to the players in that locker room who I believe, and I say this with experience and talking to players themselves during my almost seven years now of covering the NFL, it makes them feel undervalued. And it comes back to a point that I've made often here on Locked On Patriots. Not every player in that locker room is leaving the Patriots at the end of this season. Think about this for a moment. The Patriots have 47 players under contractual control for 2024. Telling those players to drop a game because the
Starting point is 00:25:07 team wants to hitch its wagon to a player that has not taken a pro level snap yet, I don't think it does much to help the team in the long run. But again, folks, that's my opinion. I know a lot of us will agree to disagree on this. I do respect your opinions on the matter. I am always of the ilk that a fan is never wrong for wanting what is best for the team. And a lot of you feel that losses and getting that high draft pick is what's best for the team. We can put aside the tank versus no tank argument for today because that's going to be discussed here on Locked On Patriots at least a few times over the course of the next few weeks. For now, let's take a look at the Pats' path to a premium pick because they're going to need some help to get it, believe me, because the win-loss record is only part of it. Strength of schedule is going to determine the tiebreaker. And folks, just in case you're wondering how that's calculated,
Starting point is 00:25:59 strength of schedule is based on the combined winning percentages of all the opponents on a team's schedule. So the team with the lower opponent's winning percentage gets the higher pick. Bottom line, that means Patriots fans should want each team New England played this season to lose in week 18. And depending on what happens in week 18 this coming weekend, New England could actually finish anywhere from number seven to number two. Yeah, that's right, folks. You're telling me there's a chance. There's still a chance at a top two pick. Now, the Patriots no longer have a shot at the number one pick. Chicago Bears are getting that one because the Carolina Panthers clinched it for them on New Year's Eve. But you take a look at
Starting point is 00:26:40 teams two through seven. The Washington Commanders at four-12 have a.515 strength of schedule. New England Patriots, number three, they have a.518 strength of schedule, also with a 4-12 record. The Arizona Cardinals' victory over the Eagles yesterday gave them a.562 strength of schedule with a 4-12 record. So right now, the Patriots sit in that third slot. Don't discount teams like the New York Giants who are fifth right now at 5-11. The Los Angeles Chargers sit at sixth with 5-11 and of course the Tennessee Titans at 5-11 too with a 0.529
Starting point is 00:27:18 strength of schedule. I'll concede this point that a loss on Sunday against the Jets is only going to help the Pats' chances of moving up on that list. But you might be wondering if the Patriots could actually beat the New York Jets on Sunday and still finish with the second pick. Folks, I'm telling you, there is a chance. It's a Lloyd Christmas chance, but it is one. And it is going to require a lot of assistance. It would require the Arizona Cardinals to beat the
Starting point is 00:27:46 Seattle Seahawks this weekend and the Washington Commanders to beat the Dallas Cowboys. Now, because the Patriots have already clinched the strength of schedule tiebreaker over Arizona, they would also land the number two pick, even if they lost to the Jets with a Commander's victory. So that's something to keep a sharp eye on this weekend as well. But asking the Cardinals and the commanders to win their respective games is a lot to ask. Cardinals are going against the Seahawks. That's not going to be an easy game. The commanders going against the Cowboys, who are definitely going to try to win that one, is not going to be an easy task.
Starting point is 00:28:19 The smoothest path to get there still has some potholes, but not as many as the path they'd have to follow if they're relying on both the Cardinals and the Commanders to get victories this weekend. It requires the Patriots losing to the Jets, the Commanders losing to the Cowboys, and then the Patriots are going to need some help from a handful of teams. While the Patriots don't need all of these to fall into place, as many of them falling into place as possible can only help their chances of securing that number two pick. The question is always asked, what is my rooting interest for week 18 beyond just watching the Patriots game? Well, folks, you're going to want the Baltimore
Starting point is 00:28:54 Ravens to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers. Patriots played the Steelers earlier this year. The Houston Texans, you're going to want them to beat the Indianapolis Colts. We all remember the Colts beating the Patriots in Frankfurt, Germany this year. You're going to want the Falcons to beat the New Orleans Saints. The Patriots were shut out by the Saints earlier this season. Chicago Bears, you're going to want them to beat the Green Bay Packers. And last but not least, the Denver Broncos. If the Pats beat the Broncos, you're going to want the Broncos to beat the Las Vegas Raiders because the Patriots fell to the Raiders earlier this year. Now, all of those outcomes would lower the Patriots' strength of schedule or raise the commander's strength of schedule. That would help New England. Either one of those would help the
Starting point is 00:29:34 New England Patriots. And like I said before, they don't need all of those games to break their way, but a clean sweep would lock up the number two pick for the Bats. So definitely keep a sharp eye on the scores as they start to roll in on Sunday. Going to give you a good handle as to where the Patriots might be. And one that you want to watch particularly closely, and I really want to give a tip of the cap
Starting point is 00:29:55 to Dakota Randall of Nessun for this point, who really has done a great job of breaking these down to begin with. When you are determining which of the games to keep your sharp eye on this weekend, Dakota recommends, and I'm in full agreement on this by the way, that of the five games that we mentioned before, the Falcon Saints matchup is really the one worth watching. An Atlanta victory would be really beneficial for the Patriots as the Commanders played the Falcons earlier this season, whereas New England played the Saints. So a Falcons win would simultaneously
Starting point is 00:30:26 raise Washington's strength of schedule while lowering New England. So at this point, you're definitely going to want to be rooting for a Falcons victory. That's right, folks. You might want to limit those 28-3 jokes this week because we definitely need the Falcons to come out on top in that matchup. So something to keep an eye on. It's a lot to keep track on, and there is so much to talk about and still so much to break down. And luckily for us, folks, I will be back in the Locked On Patriot studio tomorrow.
Starting point is 00:30:54 And yeah, you guessed it. Guess who's coming with me, folks? That's right. For the first time this year. Yeah, sorry, that was a bad joke, I know. But the legend himself, Thomas Murphy, will be here to talk Pat's bills, Bill Belichick's future, and we're also going to answer all of your mailbag questions.
Starting point is 00:31:11 So get them in to have your great insight featured this week on Locked On Patriots. And of course, again, I thank all of you who take the time to make Locked On Patriots a daily part of your New England Patriots coverage. All of you everydayers, you casual listeners, all of you first timers, maybe you might be even making Locked On Patriots a New Year's resolution. But in any case, I greatly appreciate your support and I thank you for staying locked into Locked On Patriots. Once again, folks, I'm Mike DeBate reminding you all to stay safe and to stay well and
Starting point is 00:31:43 to be the change you wish to see in the world. Have a great day, everyone. A happy new year, and we'll see you here again tomorrow on Lot on Patriots.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.