Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Patriots & Josh McDaniels Need To Exploit Drake Maye’s Secret Weapon!

Starting point is 00:00:00 Dear Josh McDaniels run Drake may more that's where we start on this episode of locked on Patriots You are locked on Patriots your daily New England Patriots podcast Part of the locked on podcast network your team every day What's up Patriots fans? I am your host, Nick Cattles, born and raised in New England, your New England Patriots expert host of the everything paths podcast cohost of the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattles and also a sports talk show host veteran on today's episode. We'll dig into the obstacles that could stop Milton Williams from hitting his

Starting point is 00:00:44 ceiling as a Patriot and The defense doesn't have a ton of questions, but we're going to discuss one of them But first the 2025 paths offense has to learn from the terrible 2024 version we appreciate you joining the show making us your first listen and for being an everyday or the lockdown Patriots Podcast is a proud part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Quick reminder, we're going Monday, Wednesday, Friday, three days a week until we get back to five shows a week.

Starting point is 00:01:15 Every day we get a show starting on Monday, July 14th. And today's episode is brought to you by Fandool. Right now new customers can get $200 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins the Patriots offense needs to exploit Drake May's athleticism and scrambling ability. I want to take you to a story written by Ben Solak. He broke down Drake May in what we should see from the Patriots in year two of May's NFL career and Solak, he broke down Drake May in what we should see from the Patriots in year two of May's NFL career and Solak underlined May's ability to scramble. Here's what he wrote, May scrambled on 10.8% of his drop backs, second only to Jaden Daniels

Starting point is 00:01:59 among quarterbacks. May's nine yards per scramble exceeded Daniel's 8.1 as did his explosive run rate. When you look at explosive run rate, Drake May, his number was at 37.8%. Jaden Daniels more than 10% below that at 27.1%. So Lack writes, I'm not taking May before Daniels were I running a triple option offense, nor is anyone else, but May's significant scrambling achievements have gotten lost in Daniels historical shadow. Smart coaches would start including him in the option run game as a big bodied vertical runner a la Josh Allen or Jalen Hertz.

Starting point is 00:02:44 I 100% agree with Ben Solak. a big bodied vertical runner, a la Josh Allen or Jalen Hertz. I 100% agree with Ben Solak. Smart coaches would start including Drake May in the option running game as a big bodied vertical runner, a la Josh Allen or Jalen Hertz. Josh McDaniels, last time I checked, is considered a very smart coach, a very smart offensive coordinator. And if he is that, we've seen it before, if he is that still to this day in 2025,

Starting point is 00:03:16 then he will run Drake May more than we saw May run in 2024. He will exploit the athleticism and the scrambling ability he now has in his quarterback. You want to cause conflict on any defense that you face. And the way that you do that with your quarterback is that you can combat the pass rush if your quarterback can run with the football. Guys might get hesitant getting deep down field, going after the quarterback for a sack. They're going to be hesitant, or at least they should be hesitant

Starting point is 00:03:53 if they're trying to play responsible football. They're going to be hesitant if that quarterback can tuck it and run it. So you combat the pass rush with Drake May's legs. Defenses have to worry about an extra skill position player for all intents and purposes. You're not facing a guy who's going to be a statue in the pocket. You're facing somebody that is like moving fluidly like water within that pocket, outside the pocket, scrambling, running down field, making plays with his legs, converting first downs. It's like facing

Starting point is 00:04:29 an extra skill position player. You don't have to worry about just the receivers, the running backs, and the tight ends out there. Oh no, you've got to worry about the quarterback hurting you by getting away from your defensive line. Force the defense to devote a spy if you're Josh McDaniels. You want the idea of May running in the back of every single defender's mind, week in and week out during this upcoming season. If you can get that done,

Starting point is 00:05:00 it creates more offensive wiggle room. Think about how good your offense can be if you have a truly effective running quarterback. Let's look at the Patriots and what they did last year on third and fourth down. It wasn't good, especially on third down. Third down, it was hideous. The Patriots were 29 in third down conversion rate. They converted less than 35% of their third downs. That my friends is atrocious.

Starting point is 00:05:33 It's abominable. It is frankly puke inducing. Fourth down, they were better. Right about middle of the pack. They were 14th in the league at 58.33%. Still not great overall. And when you look at the offenses in the league last year that were good on third down,

Starting point is 00:05:54 I want you to try to pick out a theme here. I want you to stick a pin in these teams as you go through them with me and think about who their quarterbacks are. Third down offense. Here are seven of the top 10 offenses on third down from 2024. Baltimore, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Washington, Buffalo, Arizona, Green Bay. Seven of your top 10 third down offenses a year ago had running, scrambling quarterbacks.

Starting point is 00:06:30 Jackson, Mahomes, Burrow, Daniels, Allen, Murray, Love, all capable of tucking and running. The top three offenses on fourth down. The top three offenses on fourth down last year, the commanders, the Bills, the Eagles. Hmm, sensing a trend, sensing a theme with those teams, I am. When you have a running quarterback, and I'm not sitting here telling you that we should be stumping for Drake made to run the football 10 to 15 times a game.

Starting point is 00:07:09 I'm saying three, four times a game. Use it in the perfect spots. You don't have to overrun him. You don't have to try to turn him into RG free. You don't have to try to turn him into cam Newton at times back in 2020. A few times a game will loosen things up. It will help you out. It will extend drives.

Starting point is 00:07:33 It will open up running lanes for the running backs as you use the option plays that Solak wrote about. You want to throw the defense off. You want them thinking things. Misdirection. Deception. You can do that if you run Drake May Moore in 2025. You will also improve in the red zone. If you have the option with a running quarterback, you will improve your red zone offense in. We all know.

Starting point is 00:08:06 One of the key categories that the Patriots have to be better in this season is red zone offense because they were frankly deplorable in 2024. Absolutely hideous in red zone offense. They were 30th in the league in red zone offense they were 30th in the league in red zone offense so 29th on third down in 30th in the red zone a running quarterback should make your red zone offense much more efficient you were 30th in the red zone area which is why you were 30th in points per game last year you're not efficient in the red zone you're not scoring enough points.

Starting point is 00:08:46 You should be able to help yourself with that situation. If you utilize your running quarterback, I'm gonna do the same thing I did just a minute or two ago with the idea of looking at quarterbacks in some of these offenses, top 10 red zone offenses in 2024. The top 10 was littered with running and scrambling quarterbacks We've heard a lot of these teams already Baltimore was the best red zone offense

Starting point is 00:09:12 Buffalo was number two Washington was number six Chicago with Caleb Williams was number seven Philadelphia Green Bay. They were tied for 10th We're talking about more teams that have quarterbacks that can scramble, that can be part of a run package with the option plays, quarterback sneaks, whatever you want to do. Offenses that utilize the athleticism and scrambling ability of their quarterbacks unequivocally are some of the best offenses in football in 2025. And the Patriots happen to have one of those guys. Don't overrun him.

Starting point is 00:09:54 Don't go crazy, but utilize his strengths. So Josh McDaniels, I plead with you, run May more in 2025. Please. Milton Williams has tons of potential, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have obstacles in the way. That's coming up next as we continue with today's episode of Locked On Patriots, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Did you take advantage of the NBA playoffs? I've been talking about this for a while. The highlight were the performances, major momentum shifts and can't miss moments, whether it was a game winning shot or a breakout player. I hope you got in on the action over the past

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Starting point is 00:11:32 I was super excited when the Patriots signed him during free agency. We all remember that moment, like, okay, Williams is not gonna be a Patriot. I think it was, he's going to Carolina, all of a sudden that changed. Now he's not going to Carolina. All of a sudden, that changed. Now he's not going to Carolina. He's going to end up being a patriot.

Starting point is 00:11:48 That was a great moment at the beginning of the free agency period. There's nobody that's going to debate whether or not Milton Williams is a tremendous talent. But Milton Williams absolutely has some obstacles that are in the way of him hitting his ceiling, in the way of him fulfilling his ceiling, in the way of him fulfilling his potential.

Starting point is 00:12:06 We're going to talk about some of those. Recently Pro Football Focus ranked all the positions across the NFL. They gave us their top 32 players at each position, getting ready for 2025 season. And Pro Football Focus ranked Milton Williams 14th among interior defensive linemen. And here's what they wrote. Williams is coming off an impactful 2024 campaign in which his presence on the Eagles defensive line was a catalyst for their Super Bowl run. His 91.7 PFF pass rush grade Rush grade last season ranked firsts among interior defenders. Great. Fantastic pass rusher from the interior.

Starting point is 00:12:51 You want that. You need that. Patriots have a couple of guys that bring that. Talking about Williams and Barmore. But let's get into some of the obstacles. Let's get into some of the things that might get in the way of Williams being better than the 14th best interior defensive lineman that might keep Williams from being a top five guy at the position this upcoming season.

Starting point is 00:13:16 I want to begin with snaps. Exciting. I know. But check it out. Snap counts, snap percentages. I know, but check it out. Snap counts, snap percentages. Last year, Milton Williams played only 48% of the snaps for the Eagles. 48%. So what I wanted to do was I wanted to look at the other top interior defensive linemen, according to Pro Football Focus, and I wanted to see the percentage of snaps that those guys play so we have an idea of what it looks like to be a top interior defensive lineman and how impactful those guys are when it comes to snap to snap defense. Chris Jones was the top ranked IDL for pro football focus.

Starting point is 00:14:02 Makes sense. Chris Jones played 71.3% of Kansas City snaps. Dexter Lawrence was number two. Now he missed games, he ended up playing 550 snaps. Cam Hayward was number three. He played in over 71% of the Steelers snaps last year. Quinnon Williams of the Jets played in 63% of the Jets snaps last season and Jalen Carter teammates with Milton Williams so it wasn't just a Philadelphia Eagles approach.

Starting point is 00:14:34 Jalen Carter played 79.37% of the snaps for the Eagles last year. So when you look at what top-notch IDLs play when it comes to snap count, we're talking just about 71% if not higher. Chris Jones 71%, Hayward 71%, Jalen Carter 79%. Now Quinn and Williams a little bit below that at 63%. And I'm not sitting here telling you that Milton Williams is incapable of playing more snaps. The Eagles were loaded on the defensive line and Milton Williams will unequivocally play more snaps in 2025 for the Patriots just based on the contract he signed with the Patriots. He's the most expensive luxury item in that locker room. He's going to play more than 48% of the snaps. Don't get it twisted. But if he plays more snaps, can he stay healthy? That's one of the questions we have to ask. When he goes from 48% of the snaps to let's say 70% of the snaps, if we're going to put

Starting point is 00:15:38 him around in the Chris Jones area, if he's going to go from 48% to 70%, that's a big bump. I'm not a mathematician, I'm not a professor of mathematics, but the last time I checked I believe that is 22%. If he's going to boost his playing time by 22%, we have to ask the question if he's going to be capable of staying healthy while playing the same style of football that he likes to play. Will this backfire when we talk about his durability? Can he stay on the field? Can he stay healthy enough to play week in and week out? Because he is the prize.

Starting point is 00:16:19 He is the big item. He is the guy that the Patriots are going to depend on to do a lot of damage on that defensive line to go along with Barmore and to go along with Keon white Harold Landry But we're talking about the heart Milton Williams You pay him that money because you want him to be the heart of this defensive line You want him to be the epicenter of your front seven? He's got to be out there every single week He's got to be healthy every single week. He's not the biggest guy. Now he's big when you look at me, because I'm not a big dude. But Milton Williams, he's 6'3, 290. So he's under 300 pounds. And

Starting point is 00:16:58 we know that Mike Rabel, Terrell Williams, they like defensive linemen that are on the smaller side. I don't want to call them small, but on the smaller side compared to some other players that play that same position. So six, three, two 90. If you're going from 48% to 70%, you've got to make sure you can get through that without any damage, any significant damage, and we're talking about a defense that's going to be aggressive. Think about Terrell Williams, what he likes to say. through that without any damage, any significant damage. And we're talking about a defense that's going to be aggressive.

Starting point is 00:17:27 Think about Tyrell Williams, what he likes to say. He likes his guys playing violent. This is going to be a physical, aggressive, violent football team. And you gotta play 22% more snaps if you wanna get to 70. Can you do that, stay healthy? Can you do that and be the same guy?

Starting point is 00:17:44 One last obstacle. Can Milton Williams prove that he can play at least decent football against the run? Because last year he was terrible against the run. In 2024, Milton Williams' PFF run grade was 43.1. If you're wondering where he stacked up against other interior defensive linemen, it wasn't good. Milton Williams finished 167th out of 219 interior defensive linemen. When we talk about Milton Williams, we're not talking about a Williams that is a run stopper.

Starting point is 00:18:17 Far from it. That grade was atrocious last year. And if you think it was a one year thing, it wasn't. Go back to 2023. This is kind of crazy. I triple checked it just to make sure I had this right but Williams run grade last year was 43.1. His run grade grade my cousin Vinnie dating myself I identical that's what you got Milton Williams in the last two years has been one of the worst run defending interior defensive lineman in the league if you

Starting point is 00:18:59 look at the other top five interior defensive linemen, according to PFF, that list we went through earlier, two of those top five guys have top five run grades, Dexter, Lawrence, and Cam Hayward. The other three out of the top five IDLs, we're talking Chris Jones, Jalen Carter, Quinn, and Williams. Jones was 38th. Jalen Carter was 68th.

Starting point is 00:19:23 Quinn and Williams was 81st. So not necessarily great, those last two guys, but still, Eon's better than Milton Williams. He's got to step up. If he wants to be truly one of the best defensive linemen in football on the inside, he's got to be more than a pass rusher. Maybe others will help. Far more white. Maybe they'll help. But those are three things I just went through that Milton Williams has to make sure he accomplishes to be as good as the Patriots hope that he will be as he's getting paid as much money as he's getting paid.

Starting point is 00:20:05 The 2025 defense, speaking of the D, seems to have lots of answers, but it's not without its questions. That's coming up next as we continue with today's episode of Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. I have pretty high expectations for the defense this year. I think this defense has a legitimate shot at being a top 10 unit. Honestly do. But it doesn't mean this defense is flawless. It doesn't mean this defense is without a weakness or two, maybe even more, but let's look at one specific weakness

Starting point is 00:20:47 or possible weakness on this defense. And then I'll tell you if I think it's a big deal or not. Greg Bedard, my buddy at BSJ, recently wrote about weak side linebacker. That Christian Ellis got a lot of snaps next to Robert Spillane in the off season is not a great thing. Ellis has potential and is a good athlete, but he's still really raw at linebacker and is more of a special teams player. Well, if Ellis is more of a special teams player, the contract, the two years, 13 plus million dollar deal.

Starting point is 00:21:26 The contract, the two years, 13 plus million dollar deal, that's an abomination by the front office and Mike Vrabel if this guy's going to play special teams while making six and a half million a year. That to me would be a massive overpay, especially considering the rest of this roster and where you were and spending money like that on a special teams guy, no bueno. But I've got to tell you, I appreciate Bedard. And I'm not necessarily telling you that Bedard's evaluation of the player is wrong. But I'm not overly concerned.

Starting point is 00:21:56 There is no defense in the NFL, at least I don't think there is, that has an answer everywhere. I don't think there's a defense in the league where you look one through 11 and you say to yourself, no, we good. We more than good. We got an answer everywhere. We feel great about every single solitary position on the field. We got pro bowlers everywhere. We got pro bowlers just coming out the woodwork on that side of the football. You're going to have a position that might not be as strong as others is the point. And when I look at weak side linebacker, every single position is important. They should all feel good about themselves and understand that they make an impact. But weak side linebacker,

Starting point is 00:22:45 I feel like I can live with a weak side linebacker that might be, might be, slightly below average, if that's what Christian Ellis is. I think you can survive that. You should be able to survive it, especially if you have the defensive line and cornerbacks that this defense has Especially if you have the defensive line and cornerbacks that this defense has for this upcoming season Barmore Williams Landry white Gonzales Davis Jones Duggar peppers, maybe Woodson When you have that going on I

Starting point is 00:23:24 Think the level of concern about the weak side linebacker maybe not being great or very good, I think it lessens the blow. It lessens the impact of not having somebody who might be spectacular day one. Because I can look around the rest of the defense and say, you know what? There's going's gonna be six seven guys out there that I feel are very good football players if not more than that And I didn't count Spillane, but just looking at defensive line and cornerback Man, I think you got a ton of talent there bar more and Williams Could be two of the top ten or 15 interior defensive linemen in the

Starting point is 00:24:05 league this season. Keon White I think has an opportunity to flourish with this coaching staff. Gonzo is a second-team all-pro already only 20 games into his career. Carlton Davis one of the best number two cornerbacks in football. I can live with maybe a little bit of a weakness at weak side linebacker. Here's something else I would say. I have trust in this staff. I have trust in Williams. I have trust in Vrabel. I have trust in Kerr. I have trust in Smith. I have trust in this defensive staff that they're going to do a great job.

Starting point is 00:24:47 They have experience. They have history together, that cohesion as a staff. And I feel like this staff, and I would also say the offensive staff, I just feel like the Patriots coaching staff overall is Filled with coaches that are going to be able to accentuate the strengths of their players Accentuate the strengths hide the weaknesses. I Think they can take a guy like Christian Ellis and they can't make an average player a spectacular player. Let's not go crazy here. But I do think they can take somebody like Christian Ellis and develop him enough to make him an average weak side linebacker.

Starting point is 00:25:33 To work on the mistakes, to correct those mistakes. So those weaknesses, some of them can just go away. You know what he does well, You put him in positions to succeed. You don't put him in positions to fail. Throughout last season, we saw, especially on the defensive side, how many times did we see players put in a position to fail? That's the antithesis of what your coaching staff should be doing. And I think the Patriots have a coaching staff now that is uniquely, uniquely qualified to get the most out of

Starting point is 00:26:07 the players on the field. And so when I see somebody like Christian Ellis, I believe that this defensive staff is going to do right by him. And I believe as Bedard said, he's got raw potential. I believe that this defensive staff is going to get the most out of that raw potential. And I believe that this coaching staff is going to make Ellis at least average much sooner than later. I have trust in this staff and you could argue and I would argue you take that raw potential and the only way that we're going to see if Christian Ellis

Starting point is 00:26:45 can actually translate that potential, fulfill it on the field is by giving him some opportunities. If he's out there running around playing special teams, he's not getting reps at linebacker. If you feel like he's got potential, then you get him out there. This is not a guy who's a rookie. This is a guy who's been in the league. He's played for multiple teams. And so if you believe that he has that ability, he's 26 years old just about to hit his prime for an NFL player, if not already in his prime. You put him out there, you see what he can do. I'm not going to sit there and hold back a player. Maybe just maybe by the time we get to training camp, by the second week of camp, maybe Christian Ellis already looks like he can play the position

Starting point is 00:27:36 at a higher level than anybody would have thought. And if he doesn't, I think you have options. You've got the hybrid safety role with Dugty and Peppers that you can mess around with. You've got Monty Rice, who was a top 100 pick back in 2021, when of course both Ryan Cowden and Vrabel were in Tennessee along with Terrell Williams. So they obviously like what Monty Rice brought to the table when they were drafting that year to make him a top 100 pick. You got to believe that. obviously like what Monte Rice brought to the table when they were drafting that year to make them a top 100 pick. You got to believe that.

Starting point is 00:28:08 And at weak side linebacker, I don't think it's outrageous to believe that maybe somebody becomes available. At that position, maybe it's somebody who becomes a free agent, gets released, gets cut. Maybe it's somebody who ends up Available via trade. Maybe it's somebody who's about to maybe fall into the practice squad Purgatory and the Patriots say let's pluck that guy from that team So I'm not overly concerned about the weak side linebacker

Starting point is 00:28:42 Having potential maybe not being quite ready to be the guy in the middle of June. I trust the people around him, and I'd rather have somebody who has potential that can grow into that potential and develop than somebody who is just who he is, has a high floor, low ceiling, and might be average at best.

Starting point is 00:29:07 And I think we've had a lot of that in different spots on this football team the past couple of years. So not overly concerned. All right, that wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Reach out to me on Twitter, will you? At Nick C Radio. Don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel and don't forget to hit that like button and subscribe

Starting point is 00:29:26 to this channel. We appreciate every single one of you and thank you for making Lockdown Patriots your first listen today for your second listen. Check out Lockdown NFL Scouting. Krabs and Marino will make you the most informed NFL fan this off season. Find Lockdown NFL Scouting on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts. Have a great weekend. Stay cool and we'll see you on Monday.

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Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Patriots & Josh McDaniels Need To Exploit Drake Maye’s Secret Weapon!

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