Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Predictions: Patriots’ Floor, Ceiling Revealed – Will Drake Maye Shine?
Episode Date: September 8, 2026New England Patriots face a season of high expectations and tough questions as they look to defend their AFC title. Can Drake Maye deliver another standout year and compensate for a defense facing inj...uries and run-stopping concerns? Nick Cattles predicts the Patriots’ finish, including their battle with the Buffalo Bills over the AFC East crown.Key topics include A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs poised for breakout production, Will Campbell and Jared Wilson aiming to solidify the offensive line, and the looming impact of TreVeyon Henderson’s injury on the run game as Rhamondre Stevenson takes center stage. Questions swirl around Christian Gonzalez’s contract situation and Christian Barmore’s health ahead of a challenging road opener against the Seattle Seahawks’ injury-plagued secondary. Will New England’s revamped roster meet expectations, or is regression inevitable?Follow & Subscribe on all Podcast platforms🎧 https://lockedonpodcasts.com/podcasts/locked-on-patriots/Locked On NFL League-Wide: Every Team, Fantasy, Draft, & More🎧 https://lockedonpodcasts.com/leagues/nfl/#patriots #newenglandpatriotsSupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!HomeChefFor a limited time, Home Chef is offering my listeners FIFTY PERCENT OFF and free shipping for your first box PLUS free dessert for life! Go to http://HomeChef.com/LOCKEDONNFL. QuoTry QUO for free PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months when you go to http://Quo.com/LOCKEDONNFL. IndeedListeners of this show get a $75 Sponsored Job Credit to help give your job the premium placement it deserves at http://Indeed.com/podcast.PrizePicksVisit https://prizepicks.onelink.me/LME0/LOCKEDONNFL and use code LOCKEDONNFL and get $150 if you win your first $5 lineup!OdooGreat organizations win because operations matter. And that’s why you should get Odoo. Try for free today at https://Odoo.com/lockedon.GustoTry Gusto today at http://gusto.com/LOCKEDONNFL, and get three months free when you run your first payroll.KALSHIFor a limited time,Download the Kalshi app and use code [LOCKEDON] to get $10 when you trade $10.GametimeToday's episode is brought to you by Gametime. Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDON for $20 off your first purchase.FanDuelGet three hundred fifty dollars in Bonus Bets — GUARANTEED — when you bet five dollars every day for seven days. Join all the action at https://FANDUEL.COMFANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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The 2026 Pats look to defend their AFC title,
and our final season prediction tells you where they're going to land.
This is Lockdown Patriots.
You are Locked-on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast,
part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day.
Must happen then. I am your host, Nick Cattels.
On today's show, some early Seattle matchup thoughts as we get ready for the kickoff
to the 2026 season on Wednesday.
In the second segment, it certainly seems like the Pats
will be missing a key ingredient of their offense in week one.
But first, it's prediction time.
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The ebbs and flows of an off season.
This is how it usually works.
right after the draft, most of us think that a team will exceed expectations.
The belief is that the team address their needs, address their weaknesses,
and the excitement over the new additions to address those needs and weaknesses really takes over.
And then camp hits.
And there's a sense of reality as you near the end of camp.
All right, we thought this team would look like this, but in camp,
the team actually has looked like this.
Here's where I'm at for 2026.
The first thing I'm going to say about this upcoming season, I think is obvious.
The Patriots are going to regress this year.
They finish with 14 regular season wins in 2025, exceeding everybody's expectations,
and I think they will win less games in 2026 again.
I don't think you necessarily have to be a rocket scientist to believe that.
I think many of us believe this team will have less wins this year than it had last year.
But what will the record be?
I'm sitting at 11 and 6.
I think the Patriots have a floor of 9 and 8.
I think they will get 2 9 wins.
That is their floor if they're healthy this season.
I also think the Patriots have a ceiling.
I do this every year.
I give you what I think the finish is going to be in the regular season.
And then I give you the floor and I give you the ceiling.
So again, I think 11 and 6, a floor of 9 and 8, a ceiling of 12 and 5.
I do believe the Patriots will battle for the AFC East.
I also think they will just lose out on winning the division back to back years.
I think Buffalo is going to float around 12 wins.
So I think this thing is going to be tight throughout the entire season.
But inevitably, the Buffalo Bills will edge out the Patriots for,
the division. Here are four things, four things that I am confident in. Number one, Drake May will
carry this team when it's needed. He's going to help cover up some of the issues, some of the
issues that we have discussed, right? The things like pass rush, will the Patriots get enough
consistent pass rush to make an impact on the opposing quarterback week after week after week after
week. Drake May will help you overcome the lack of a pass rush. I also think the run game.
Offensively, it's been inconsistent. It was inconsistent last year. It was inconsistent during
camp. And until I see a consistent run game, I'm going to believe, you guessed it, that it's
going to be inconsistent. Great quarterback play will help you overcome an inconsistent run game.
Again, we saw it in 2025. I also think the Patriots,
will not be as healthy this year as they were last year.
It's very hard to believe that the Pats are going to roll on through this season
with the least amount of games impacted by injury like they had last year.
It's almost inconceivable to believe that a team will have that much injury luck,
two straight seasons.
But Drake May, as long as he stays healthy, I think will overcome those health issues,
will overcome the injuries.
Your quarterback is the main reason why I'm picking this team to go 11 and 6.
Number two, the defense is going to fall short of expectations.
Before the camp began, I talked about this defense being a top 10 defense in the NFL
and maybe even getting to the top five.
I'm taking a step back from that.
I still think this defense could end up being top 10,
but I think it's much closer to 10 than it is five.
And I would not be surprised if this defense finishes outside the top 10.
I have some concerns.
I have concerns about their run defense.
Their run defense fell off last year while Milton Williams and Robert Spillane were out.
We discussed that a bunch.
But then you went to the Super Bowl.
You had both those guys out there and your run defense was trash against Kenneth Walker.
Then you get to the off season.
You do what you do, which wasn't a ton at linebacker.
and really wasn't a ton on the defensive line,
given that you lost Kyrie's Tonga.
And I just think the front seven,
the questions that we had at times last year,
and especially during that Super Bowl,
I think those questions still exist.
Harold Landry is not going to be back week one.
Who knows when he's going to be back?
Draymont Jones better against the run than Caleb on Chase on.
But Elijah Ponder, we don't know what he's going to give you against the run.
Gabe Accus, how much is he going to play?
when he's out there, are his eyes going to deceive him?
And will he give up some big runs on the edge?
I still don't think we have an answer as far as replacing Kyrie's Tonga,
given what we've seen during camp.
So I have run defense concerns.
I also think as part of that health thing I discussed just a couple of minutes ago,
I expect Carlton Davis to miss at least a couple of games this year.
Now, hopefully I'm wrong, but his history is his history.
And I don't think he's going to give you all.
17 and 2026.
I expect him to miss at least two, if not more games.
Maybe he misses three.
Maybe he misses four.
If Carlton Davis misses a full month, that's going to have an impact on your secondary.
It's going to have an impact on your defense.
And without a consistent four-man pass rush, and I don't think the Patriots will have a
consistent four-man pass rush, I believe Zach Corr is going to over-commit to the blitz at times.
And when you over-commit to the blitz, mistakes happen.
big plays happened.
So I think this defense is going to fall short of my expectations that I had before
camp began.
Thought they might challenge a top five spot.
I think you'll feel really good if they finish in the top 10 even right at 10.
The third thing that I'm really confident in, A.J. Brown and Romeo Dobbs will both eat
in this offense.
A.J. Brown's going to finish with around 80 catches, 1,200 yards, and 10 touchdowns.
I believe I was at those marks, if not close to those marks a few weeks ago when we went through the whole prediction process before we got to camp.
I feel as bullish on A.J. Brown as I have felt since the Patriots acquired him at the beginning of June.
And I'm more bullish on Romeo Dobbs, frankly, than I've been on him for the last couple of months.
I think he's going to finish with 50 catches, 800 yards, five or six touchdowns, and prove to be a legitimate quintessence.
number two wide receiver in this offense.
So I think your top two receivers are going to eat.
I am confident in that.
And here's one more thing I'm confident in as we get ready for 2026.
By the end of this season, both Will Campbell and Jared Wilson will have solidified
their respective spots on the offensive line.
By the end of 2026, we will have no more questions about Campbell being a franchise
left tackle, a guy who can start there for the next eight or nine years.
years. After 2026 is over, we will not have any questions about where center is on that
offensive line because Jared Wilson will have proven to be a good center for years to come.
So again, the four things, aside from the Patriots, I think, finishing 11 and 6, just missing out
on the division, getting into the playoffs for sure. Drake May is going to help carry this team
when needed. He's going to help overcome some of those short.
The defense is going to fall short of expectations.
Might finish on the outside of the top 10.
A.J. Brown and Romeo Dobbs are both going to eat and eat consistently within this offense as your top two receivers.
And by the end of 2026, both Will Campbell and Jared Wilson will have answered all the questions at left tackle and center respectively.
Now, Nick, what are they going to do in the playoffs?
I could sit here and tell you they'll get to the division round.
they'll get to the AFC championship game.
The reality is playoff success is going to depend on two things, health and matchups.
How healthy are you when you get to January?
And who do you have to play?
And where are you playing?
Now, I will tell you, I would bet against a Super Bowl return.
It's very, very tough to get back to that game two years in a row.
And with the stunt back and not having home field advantage at all in the playoffs,
I think that would be a very difficult task.
However, getting to the playoffs, especially if you win in the wildcar round,
to me is a successful season.
I know they got to a Super Bowl last year,
but I still think that would be a successful season.
Given all the questions that people have about last year's schedule and is Drake
May for real, you get to the playoffs, you win a playoff.
You win a playoff game.
That feels like an accomplishment for 2026.
Coming up, the Pats will likely have to fill an important void in their offense in week one.
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your first listed and for being an everydayer. And if you're watching us on YouTube,
you understand we're going through some changes here in the studio. I'm trying to make this experience
the best it can be. And I want the picture quality to be better, to be clear, the resolution
to improve. So I'm messing around with some of the lighting. So if I'm a little bit too bright
today, we're going to fix it. We're going to fix it because I want this to be the best that it can be.
So if you're wondering why this looks different today, there you have it. Travion Henderson,
not spotted at Monday's stretching. And he was unable to practice the latest update on Monday.
So Trayvion Henderson has now not practiced since August 24th.
It's been about two weeks since the last time Trayvion Henderson was on the field.
I would not expect Henderson to play on Wednesday night in Seattle.
So what is the impact of that?
Number one, this will put a lot on Ramandre Stevenson's play.
First question I have about that is how much is Stevenson actually going to play?
Is he going to play 80% of the time?
the snaps, 85, 90.
Mike Reese over the weekend
wrote about this and he wrote about the snaps that
Stevenson and Henderson
took week one of
2025. And last year's season
opener, Stevenson
took 46 snaps.
Henderson took 25 snaps.
Now, I would expect
Ramandre Stevenson to play
about 50 snaps on Wednesday night.
That's my expectation. He played
46 snaps last year.
I think he's right around that number this year
with maybe a handful
more of snaps on the offensive side.
Here's something else that I would expect.
I expect Land Larison
to get activated from the practice squad.
I think he's going to be the guy
that gets the so-called call-up
because of Henderson's injury.
I think it will be Land Larison,
and this goes back to what I've said throughout camp.
Larison is a third down back type.
He's a gun run back.
He's not necessarily in my eyes a first and second down workhorse.
So if Ramandre Stevenson went down,
I would have more confidence that Hassan Haskins would be the guy
activated from the practice squad.
But because it's going to be Henderson most likely being out on Wednesday night,
I anticipate Larison being the next man up
and being the third running back in the room.
Of course, this means that Corey Kiner,
who you just traded for a week or two ago,
I think he will get the majority of the running back two snaps.
With Ramandre, I think playing most of the third downs.
If on the Patriots, I go into this game in Seattle,
tough atmosphere, loud, right?
The pass rush getting after it.
I'm going to trust Stevenson
before I trust anybody else on this roster
to protect Drake May in the backfield.
I don't necessarily trust Kiner because I haven't seen it enough.
I haven't seen him at all, but if you look at his play in Arizona, he was okay in past protection,
but Stevenson is very good.
And Larison, we know during camp and during those preseason games, he wasn't very good at protecting the quarterback.
So I would anticipate Ramandre Stevenson getting a lot of the third down snaps,
if not every third down snap, which means he might actually be out for a couple of the first and second downs,
where you mix Corey Kiner in.
And then the third downs that Ramandre doesn't play,
you probably slide Land Larison into that spot
because he's that receiving threat.
Now, the other interesting aspect of this is, again,
Kiner is new to the team.
So how well does he know the offense?
How much do they trust him?
But generally speaking,
I think Ramondre gets about 50 snaps.
I think you have Kiner out there first and second down
when Ramonre is not out there.
I think Ramandre plays the vast majority of third downs.
When he's not out there and needs a breather,
it will be Larison because of that receiving skill.
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All right.
Sounds like Christian Gonzalez is likely going to play on Wednesday, but he's been coy when asked about this.
From what I take of Gonzalez's answers, I think it's more a leverage play than a legitimate threat of him not playing.
And I base that on a few things.
the camp he's had.
He's been out there.
He had the injury.
He got dinged up.
He missed some practices.
He missed Eagles week.
But then he came back.
He was in pads.
He's practiced ever since.
And so it does feel like that was injury related, more than contract related.
Other than that, he's been out there every day.
And he's been working his butt off.
He's been practicing hard.
So I just would expect him to be out there week one.
I don't think he's getting paid for sitting out weeks at a time.
I think Gonzalez will look at this and say,
I can drive my market to be even higher by going out there and playing football
and proving to the world that I'm even better than you thought I was.
And for the people that question my physicality, for example,
I'm going to answer all those questions in 2026.
And I'm going to walk in the next off season with zero weaknesses that you can point to.
Gonzalez goes out there and proves himself to be one of the top two corners in football.
Let's say he finishes right behind Patrick Sartan.
And people believe that at the end of this season, he is the second best cornerback in football.
He makes a first team, all pro team.
If that's the case, then Gonzalez, who wants to get paid handsomely, and that's his right,
he will walk in the next offseason with even more leverage.
and he will go in with even more power to get paid at a much higher level than he's looking to get paid right now.
So I think, you know, for him, the finish line is getting the best contract possible.
And if you're not going to be able to do that right now, then you do what you need to do to put yourself in the best position to get that deal next off season.
And I know the argument is, yeah, Nick, but what if he gets hurt?
That's the risk versus the reward.
and if he doesn't play, that might turn some teams off from him.
If he's looking to go out there and the Patriots aren't going to pay him and he's going to get traded,
you want every team that needs a corner battling for your services and willing to pay you at the tippity top of the market.
So I think he gets there easier by playing football, not sitting on the tuk-took.
Finally, Christian Barmore was a did not practice on Sunday.
That was load management.
He was back on the field on Monday.
He was a full participant for that practice.
It does bring up some questions, though.
How healthy is Christian Barmore?
I mean, he has been heavily managed,
especially later on in this camp.
And yes, that's part of the plan.
But if the knee needs to be managed,
then he's not going to play as much as you would hope that he would play.
So it's not necessarily the blood clot issue anymore
and is conditioning, it's more than knee.
And so the Patriots have managed Barmore's knee heavily this camp.
And you need Barmore to step up.
You need him to play snaps.
You need him to play the run and the pass.
Very good.
I mean, you need a very good Christian Barmore next to Milton Williams because of the questions
that we have at the edge.
And I am less confident that Barmore is going to be able to be that guy,
especially consistently,
after what we've seen this camp and how he's been managed.
And frankly, he has not been a huge disruptor during this camp.
He has not had significant impact day in and day out when he's been out there.
So you need a very good bar more.
And I'm not feeling as confident that that's going to happen as I was feeling
three weeks ago, four weeks ago.
Up next, we start getting ready, baby.
We start getting ready for that Super Bowl rematch.
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Let's get into the opener.
Some early thoughts.
Wednesday's episode will be a crossover episode with Dan Vienz, who was the new host of Lockdown Seahawks.
Dan Vienz just joined the network.
So the crossover episodes are back this year.
The first one will hit.
on Wednesday.
So let's get into some early thoughts on the opener,
not spoiled too much of that crossover.
But of course, we begin with all eyes on the pass rush.
I wonder how the Patriots are going to rotate their defense events.
Now, of course, we would all expect Elijah Ponder and Draymont Jones to start at the edge.
And then you have Gabe Accus that you need to throw out there.
and, you know, I'm not going to crush Gabacus,
but we know what that's looked like.
So how much is he going to play?
Quintavius Hutchins, is he going to play at all on the edge?
Eric Hunter, you know, Greg Bedard wrote about this over the last few days at Boston Sports
Journal.
Do the Patriots see Eric Hunter as an offball linebacker or as an edge?
We'll see.
Namdi Obi-Izor got some one-on-one looks as an edge.
Is he going to play at all?
at the defensive end position.
So all eyes on the pass rush, how do those guys rotate?
How much will Zach Corr blitz to create pass rush?
He blitzed, of course, we've talked about it over 40% of the time in last year's postseason.
And will the Patriots move their guys?
Andrew Callahan had a very interesting note at the Herald.
He wrote that the Patriots might be inventing an edge.
And here's what Callahan wrote.
as the Patriots outside linebacker depth became an increasing source of concern over the summer,
CORE seemed to find a curious solution.
And team drills, his starting defense occasionally fielded three defensive tackles at once.
Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, and Corey Durdon.
Except one of Barmore or Williams aligned opposite an offensive tackle, a la an edge defender.
Opposite that relocated defensive tackle, the paths deployed one outside linebacker
typically Draymont Jones or Elijah Ponder to form a four-man line.
So instead of having two of your prototypical edge players out there, you played three
defensive tackles, one of Williams, Barmore, aligned really on the edge.
And then the fourth guy was one of your edge players.
It was either Jones or Ponder.
So, for example, you would have Milton.
William's on the left defensive end, you would then have, you know,
Barmore and Durden next to Williams, and then your right defensive end would be,
you know, Ponder or Jones.
So you would have, you know, Williams or Barmore and then Williams or Barmore and then
Durden and then Jones or Ponder.
And those guys would be in front of two linebackers, Spillane and Ellis, and five defensive
backs, which of course is nickel personnel, which would also lead you to look at, hey, why did they go out and trade for Jalen Reed?
Eventually, you want to play more defensive backs.
You want to play maybe three safeties.
There's your answer.
But, you know, we did kick this idea around, like whether or not the Patriots would move Williams or Barmore and put them at the end of the line every once in a while.
and it sounds like that's exactly what Zach Corr has done at times throughout this camp.
So very interesting note from Andrew Callahan.
Something else I'm looking at for Wednesday night.
The Seahawks could be in a very tough spot in their secondary, my friends.
Josh Job is outside corner number two.
I think he can be beat, especially with the improvements at the wide receiver position for the Patriots.
I'm not saying consistently he's going to be a sieve,
but I do think you can beat Josh Job.
on Wednesday night, their top nickelback and their most versatile, athletic freak of a monster
and Nick Ammon Worry, he's banged up.
And the latest from Seattle on Monday was that he's likely not going to play.
So you take Eam and Worry away from this defense and that's a huge impact.
The Seahawks drafted Bud Clark at safety in the second round of this year's draft.
he's out for the year.
Their free safety who is replacing Bud Clark is Ty O'Cata.
Ty O'Cada is dealing with a hamstring issue.
So, I mean, at multiple levels here,
the Seahawks secondary is going through it.
I think Josh Job is somebody you can pick on every once in a while.
Nick Eamon Worry is likely out.
Bud Clark out for the year.
Ty O'Cada dealing with a hamstring.
Who are you playing at safety? Who knows?
The ability to play three safeties is going to be heavily impacted by those injuries.
I also wonder how the Patriots will deal with all the noise on Wednesday night.
Look, Seattle is crazy loud.
They're always crazy loud.
They're going to be crazy loud on Wednesday.
Celebrating the Super Bowl championship.
The NBC crew nationally televised football game.
That place is going to be.
nutso.
And Mike Vrable
obviously knows this
and he has been working with
the offensive line
and dealing with noise for weeks.
You can go back to, you know,
like two, three weeks ago, even further
where the Patriots, they're
practicing, their top O line is
practicing communication and stuff
in the bubble with the music
blaring trying to get
them ready for week one.
So this has been planned for.
They've prepared for this.
It doesn't mean you're going to do a great job with it.
Playing in a very loud place like Seattle is difficult, man.
Not to mention that you're playing on Wednesday,
the flight across the country,
just a lot of stuff.
The connection between your center and Drake May,
first regular season game they've played together,
trying to implement a silent count on for sure.
So just a few thoughts about this opener on Wednesday night.
We'll have more on the next episode with the crossover again.
Dan Vienz of Lockdown Seahawks will join us.
All right.
That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots.
Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio.
Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe on YouTube.
And now on video, we're to send you to our 24-7 Lockdown NFL YouTube channel for the
26 NFL season preview all three episodes airing now until Sunday at 1 p.m.
Eastern.
If you're on audio, find it on the lockdown.
NFL feed wherever you get your podcasts. Have a great day. We'll see you next time.
