Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Pressure: Josh McDaniels Must Elevate Offense With Left Side Shakeup

Starting point is 00:00:00 For a number of reasons, Josh McDaniel's importance of the operation will be even more significant over the next several weeks. We start there. This is Lockdown Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcasts Network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host, Nick Cattles, born and raised in New England, been covering the paths for the past 16 years, also the co-host of the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattels and a sports radio veteran. Welcome to Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day.

Starting point is 00:00:49 On today's show, we will objectively tell you where the paths fit into the rest of the NFL after 12 weeks of football. I'll also find out which player has to deliver through the end of the year, or it could mean big trouble for this team. But first, all eyes are on Josh McDaniels. Today's episode is brought to by a Fandul. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you'll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. We will get to Josh McDaniels in just a minute.

Starting point is 00:01:20 But we have some housekeeping to take care of roster-wise. The Patriots on Tuesday signed offensive tackle Ther Munford to the 53-man roster. He was formerly on the Cleveland Brown's practice squad. He had signed with the Patriots in late August. Cleveland took him away from the Patriots. Now the Patriots take him away from Cleveland. Interesting that Ther Munford will be on the 53 man. So he signed to the active roster.

Starting point is 00:01:48 That's how you scoop him up from the practice squad in Cleveland. And of course, Montford has some ties to Vegas. He spent some time with Josh McDaniels out there with the Raiders, so he understands the system, he understands the scheme, and he can play tackle. He is a massive, massive man. And with Will Campbell being out, I would imagine for at least the next couple of weeks, at least, you have some insurance there at tackle with their Munford. Also, part of this story is that the Patriots have not placed Will Campbell on the

Starting point is 00:02:20 IR just yet. Now, that doesn't mean he won't end up on the IR. It's just right now the Patriots decided to put Alex Austin, the cornerback, on IR instead of Will Campbell, to sign Mumford, to the active roster. So right now the Patriots are slow playing this thing with Will Campbell. They probably believe, and they have all the reason to believe, that they can wait a couple the weeks, if need be, because of course, you can make Will Campbell inactive against the Giants on Monday, and then you have the buy week. So let him get treatment over the next couple of weeks, see how he responds. And if Campbell does not respond well, you can put him on the IR and say, we'll see you in the playoffs. If he does start to respond well, maybe you feel like, hey,

Starting point is 00:03:07 he has a chance to be in that Buffalo game. Patriots also signed offensive guard Bill Murray, actor to the practice squad and you could obviously read into this as Jared Wilson insurance and guard insurance because right now Jared Wilson expected to miss at least a few weeks and so you look at what you have at guard Ben Brown will slide to left guard I would imagine and start against the Giants but that also leaves you thin because as I mentioned in the prior podcast you know when you look at the center position Garrett Bradbury if he were to get banged up. You slide, I would think. Ben Brown back to center, his natural position, which leaves you with Caden Wallace at left guard. And of course, you want another option just

Starting point is 00:03:54 in case. So Bill Murray seems to be that guy. All right, that's the housekeeping. Let's get to Josh McDaniels. Josh McDaniels is one of the three most important people for the Patriots over the next month, month plus. Easily, one of the most important people for this team. We start with the offensive line. Josh McDaniels is going to have to figure out a way to adjust with a new left tackle and a new left guard. We anticipate that that will be Vedarian Lowe and Ben Brown on the left side. So will McDaniels show a lot of help to the left side? I would have to imagine he was helping Campbell. I would just have to think he will certainly help Vedarian Lowe. So how does that help affect the rest of the offense.

Starting point is 00:04:39 How much help does McDaniels decide to throw over there to the blind side of Drake May? So that's number one. Number two, the scheme. If you think that, you know, low is stronger at something than Campbell or weaker at something than Campbell, that's going to change your play sheet. Same thing can be said for Wilson and Brown. You want to scheme to your player's strengths, and that includes the offensive line.

Starting point is 00:05:09 So if you feel like Ben Brown is not as good of a run blocker as Jared Wilson, if hypothetically that's what you think, then that might have you run the ball less to the left side than you might want to originally. And let's not forget the quick game for Drake May, the quick passing game, all those things that you can install to get the football out of the hand. as quickly as possible from your quarterback. That's even more crucial without your starting left side of the offensive line, at least for the next couple of weeks, maybe even the next few weeks. Another reason why McDaniels is so crucial over the next several weeks. And yes, Josh McDaniels is crucial no matter what, but he's even more important now because the weather is turning

Starting point is 00:05:58 and the Patriots have to get the run game going. December, right around the corner, you don't want to be a one-dimensional team when you're playing in December and January, and we certainly at this point expect the Patriots to be in the playoffs. You do not want to force your quarterback to be everything to your offense. You have to be able to run the ball. And Evan Lazar wrote at Patriots.com about the run game against Sincy. Evan Lazzar wrote, the attrition in the trenches manifested itself in the Patriots.

Starting point is 00:06:31 run game, especially their short yardage or late down runs, which had a 25% success rate with four stuffed runs from inside the Bengals five yard line on two separate goal line stands by Cincinnati's defense. Overall, the Patriots landed in the 13th percentile. Not good, folks. Landed in the 13th percentile at negative 0.35 EPA per carry. So it's going to be up to McDaniels to find creative ways to run the football. Maybe you try more pony formation. Maybe you try even more misdirection than you've run this year. Maybe you try to mess around and run even more with the wide receivers on jet sweeps

Starting point is 00:07:13 in the light. Can McDaniels find a Kyrie's Tonga replacement at fullback? Because I don't think Tonga will be playing on offense very much, given A, his injury, and B, Milton Williams being out on the IR. Jack Westover, he ain't it. There was a play in the red zone against Cincinnati, watching the All-22 end zone angle. Westover has the opportunity to block somebody who is in the hole to spring free a touchdown run. But instead, he blocked somebody who was already blocked, a useless, senseless double team inside the five, which led to a run stuff.

Starting point is 00:07:55 He's not it. So can you find somebody to play fullback? Do you mess around with Hunter Henry maybe a little bit more there? But the cold weather, the cold weather is here. And you're going to need to run the football. And if you can't run the football, then you have to pivot. Maybe you lean more on wide receiver and tight end screens. Maybe we see more bubble screens, tunnel screens to the wide receivers.

Starting point is 00:08:22 Maybe we see more designed runs for Drake May. Maybe he has five or six or seven designed runs every week to try to open things up. But maybe most importantly, as we get ready for the final month or so of this season, McDaniels has to keep his quarterback balanced mentally and, of course, offensively. That Cincinnati game, a reminder of the Drake May that we've seen from time to time where he's a little bit jittery, inaccurate. He was able to fight the adversity and come back, which was awesome to see. But you have to make sure that May is at his very best over the next month plus,

Starting point is 00:09:03 given all these other situations within your offense. You have to make sure that May feels confident and he's playing on time without his starting left tackle and left guard. You have to find ways to help May if the run game continues to be as bad as it's been on the balance of this season. And finally, you've got to score points. You've got to figure out your red zone offense. Before the Cincinnati game, you were 17th, 18th in the NFL and red zone offense.

Starting point is 00:09:32 After that, Cincinnati game, you are now 20th in the NFL and red zone offense, only converting 54.7, 6% of the time. So when we look at this offense and we look at Josh McDaniels, he has been pivotal all year long. He has been crucial to the development. of Drake May. But as the season wears on, teams figure out what you're doing. The weather gets tougher.

Starting point is 00:09:59 You start losing guys. It's even more critical that you get the very best of McDaniels over the next month plus as you head into the playoffs. All right, there's a defender that is just as crucial, if not more crucial to this team than McDaniels. Find out who that is next. This is locked on Patriots, It's part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

Starting point is 00:10:27 Today's show was brought to you by friends over there at Peloton. Look, folks, it's time to break through the busy time of the year with a brand new Peloton cross-training tread plus that's powered by Peloton IQ. It's Peloton's most elevated technology and equipment yet that gives you real-time guidance and it gives you endless ways to move whether you want to work out by yourself or if you want to work out with your favorite instructor, like my personal favorite, Alex Toussod. He always gets me fired up to tackle the day. And the thing I like about Peloton, it helps me achieve more in less times.

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Starting point is 00:11:28 Explore the new Peloton, cross-training, tread plus at one peloton.com. One more McDaniel's note that I want to throw in there. Don't forget, as part of that schedule over the next month plus, as all of you are well aware, you'll also be facing a very motivated Buffalo Bills team that should be earlier in the season and you will be facing a very motivated Baltimore Ravens team. You know, Buffalo actually has a less likely, I see it,

Starting point is 00:11:58 a less likely shot at the division, but Baltimore has a great shot at winning the AFC North and they are on fire. So the two toughest games maybe you'll have all year long still coming up on the schedule, given the circumstances we discussed last segment with the offense. Yeah, Josh McDaniels, Hopefully you are on a heater the next month or so heading into the playoffs.

Starting point is 00:12:22 All right. Thank you for making lockdown Patriots your first listen to the day. Thank you for making lockdown the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. And don't forget to if you're watching, listening on YouTube, like, comment, and subscribe. Liking the podcast helps us with the algorithm and so do your comments. So don't forget to a like, comment and subscribe as we climb, climb up towards the rankings here. trying to hit 8,000 subscribers. All right, the Patriots defense is desperate,

Starting point is 00:12:51 and they have to be desperate to keep Christian Barmore fresh, healthy, and get production from him. Two of your top three interior defensive linemen are now banged up. We know Milton Williams is on IR. He might not be back until the very end of this season. Then Kyrie's Tonga gets hurt in Cincinnati. Try to go back into the game. Couldn't stay in the game.

Starting point is 00:13:13 We'll see what happens. The good news is Kyrie's Tonga was not placed. on the IR on Tuesday. There hasn't been much said about his condition. Hopefully that means he's going to be just fine. But Evan Lazar at Patriots.com noted that during Sunday's game against Cincinnati, Christian Barmore was double-teamed 19 times, 19 times. But even though Barmore was doubled 19 times, for me in my grading system,

Starting point is 00:13:43 as I looked at the all-22, I had Christian Barmore still with, five plus plays. I thought he got two or three pressures and I thought he had a couple of run stuff and that's the impact. You need that bar more impact without Williams, maybe even without Tonga for the next week or two. Again, we'll see how that unfolds. But you're absolutely unequivocally going to need a bar more that is a consistent, impactful player on this defense. The run defense is declining and it needs all the help that it can get right now. Let's get back to to Evan Lazzar, who wrote about the run defense against Cincinnati, with some numbers included, Cincinnati averaged three rushing yards before contact on their 22 rushes.

Starting point is 00:14:29 That's the second best mark in the NFL in week 12 in a season high versus the Patriots. Now, to make you feel even worse about that number, again, Cincinnati average three rushing yards before contact, okay, per carry on their 22 rushes. heading into the game against the Patriots. I mention this number. I want to mention, again, to put emphasis on what I just read from Evan Lazzar. Cincinnati averaged three rushing yards before contact per carry against the Patriots going into the game. And again, that mark was the second best mark in the entire NFL this week.

Starting point is 00:15:07 Heading into the game, Cincinnati was 28th in yards before contact per attempt. They were literally one of the worst teams in football in that analytic, in that statistic. And the Patriots allowed them to be the second best team during the week in that analytic, in that statistic. Back to Evan Lazare, the Bengals had 12 successful runs to only two stuffed runs, producing a 60.9 rushing success rate, which was a season best against New England. If you were wondering, heading into the game, Cincinnati was 23rd in success rate. They were also 21st in run block win rate. Four weeks ago, this was a rushing offense that the Patriots would have completely shut down.

Starting point is 00:15:57 Chase Brown would not have had a shot, just like James Cook, just like Rico Dowdell, and just like many others in the first nine weeks or so. But now it's different. It's a different story. And with Barmore getting more double teams that should theoretically open up opportunities for other guys. Second level, third level, you know, your linebackers, if you're, if you're sucking up those double teams, your linebackers should be able to get downhill, fill those holes, those vacancies, and stop the runner. And so as you have Barmore gobbling up those doubles, you need the other guys to be better. but it's not just about the run game.

Starting point is 00:16:39 It's really not. It's also about the pass rush. The inside pressure. I've talked about this forever. I talked about it before the season. I've talked about it during the season. Getting that pressure on the interior is vital. Quarterbacks hate all sorts of pressure, right?

Starting point is 00:16:55 All types of pressure they hate, but they especially hate pressure from the inside. And they especially hate pressure from the inside when they're not one of the most mobile quarterback. and football. That will drive them crazy. If it's James Winston on Monday night for the Giants, then getting interior pressure on James Winston, who is pretty much a pocket passer, that will cause all sorts of trouble and very likely result in turnovers, multiple turnovers. So that inside pressure is so important. And right now, you're only getting that

Starting point is 00:17:33 inside pressure from Christian Barmore, without Milton Williams, without Kyrie's Tonga, who else is going to get it? Now, Corey Durdon has played well in his time, okay? And he has been quite a fine for the Patriots. Great job by the front office and the coaching staff. But Corey Durdon had zero pressures and 19 pass rush snaps against Cincinnati. Now, he still made some plays against the run, and I might have given him credit for a pressure or so, but officially zero pressures and 19 pass rush snaps. Jeremiah Farms elevated to the active roster for the game against Sinci. He had one pressure in 17 pass rush snaps.

Starting point is 00:18:11 Between Durden and Farms, you've got one single solitary pressure on Joe Flacco. And those guys combined for 36 snaps. Meanwhile, Barmore, according to Evan Lazar, again, I had him for two or three. Lazzar had Barmore for three pressures against the Bengals. And remember, he's being managed. Christian Barmore is not going to play 75% of the snaps. So you need these others to step up. I said it during yesterday's podcast.

Starting point is 00:18:45 If Joshua Farmer is healthy and everything else is good otherwise because we don't know what's happening at practice, We don't know what's happening behind closed doors at those meetings. But if everything is checked out, I would give Joshua Farmer an opportunity against the Giants on Monday night. I would absolutely give that a shot because the Interior's not getting the pass rush without Barmore, without Williams, you know, without Tonga, you need Barmore. It's Barmore or bust right now.

Starting point is 00:19:18 And then you've got Caleb on Chase on and Harold Landry, as we mentioned in the post game. you know, they're not looking quite like the same guys. And I mentioned that the pass rush has been very inconsistent. It ends up coming in waves. A lot of the pressures happen at the beginning of the game, at the end of the game, for whatever reason. And I know I've mentioned him a lot today, but Evan Lazar had more numbers. That would back that up. On Sinci's first nine possessions, the Patriots pressure rate was only 14.8%.

Starting point is 00:19:49 If you want comparisons sake, for the season, the 49ers have the worst pressure rate in the NFL. You want to know what it is? 25.6%. That is the worst pressure rate through 12 weeks of this season. 25.6%. The Patriots, the first nine possessions against Sinti, were at 14.8%.

Starting point is 00:20:13 As I said live in the post game, as I double down on after the post game, the pressure was non-existent for the vast majority of that game against Joe Flacko, who at this stage is mostly a statue. He can move around in the pocket a little bit better than you anticipate, but he is what he is. And that last Cincinnati drive, the Pat's got much more pressure, which made their overall pressure numbers look good.

Starting point is 00:20:40 And it goes back to the time the pressure, which I have pounded, hopefully, into your heads by now. The time to pressure is important. And the Patriots have been hanging around 20th in that stat. And I'm sure it's not better after the Cincinnati game. So Christian Barmore is so critical to this defense right now without Milton Williams, without Kyrie's Tonga, hopefully for only a short period of time. But he is just so critical and that stood out on Sunday against Cincinnati.

Starting point is 00:21:10 When Barmore was out there, he made impactful plays. Other guys, they couldn't get to the quarterback. So you need Christian Barmore and the Patriots need to continue to manage. him to get the very best moving forward. All right, we saw a lot less of a certain Patriot versus Cincinnati than expected. That and more next as we continue with today's episode of Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. NBA is back and there's no better place to get in on the action than Fandul,

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Starting point is 00:22:57 which would be expected. Not having a by week until week 14 is something that we discussed at the very beginning of the season. It's something we discussed as soon as the schedule came out back in May. It's asking a lot from any team to get through 13 weeks of football without a bye week. And the Patriots, frankly, they're limping towards that by week. Thankfully, it's right around the corner. And one of the guys that is limping towards the bi-week is Ramandre Stevenson. Missed a couple games, wondered what he would look like against Cincinnati,

Starting point is 00:23:30 and he really did not look like himself throughout that game. But, you know, even more so when you look at the snap percentages, those would tell us that the Patriots understand Ramandre Stevenson is not healthy right now. Trevion Henderson got 65% of the snaps. It's a heck of a lot more than Henderson was getting when Stevenson was healthy and out there playing for the paths. Stevenson finished with six carries and five yards. Now, there wasn't much space for Stevenson to run, but you need that one-two punch. And I know a lot of people love the idea of Henderson being the lead back and getting 70, 80 percent of the snaps.

Starting point is 00:24:11 We've talked about that. You need the one-two punch of Stevenson and Henderson. you need somebody who can run inside in between the tackles and continue to be a punishing runner as you have the kind of quick pace of Henderson, the thunder and lightning as we've talked about. So I do wonder how healthy Ramandre Stevenson truly is after watching the game against Cincy.

Starting point is 00:24:35 Now, maybe he'll look like a different guy on Monday night or maybe he'll just look like the same guy on Monday night battling his way through the byweek and we won't see the Ramandre Stevenson that we've seen at times this year when he's been at his best this season, maybe we have to wait until Buffalo or Baltimore to get there. Meanwhile, the wide receivers, I think it's fair to say that the Patriots wide receivers this year

Starting point is 00:24:59 have exceeded all sorts of expectations. Kashon Booty has been even better than expected. Mack Hollins has certainly been better than expected. Stefan Diggs has been better than expected, given his age and the ACL, but not only have those guys exceeded expectations and help this offense and helped Drake May be as good as he's been, we've also seen some production against man coverage. That's right.

Starting point is 00:25:27 I want to look around the room and make sure I'm not going crazy. Did I say that yet? The Patriots actually have had two receivers who have been productive against man coverage. Matt Harmon from Yahoo posted the top 15 wide receivers in Yarn. and first downs per route run versus man coverage this season. Now, these guys, you've got to have at least a minimum of 175 total routes to be on this list. Pop Douglas is third. Pop Douglas is number three in the entire NFL in yards per route run against man coverage at 3.7.

Starting point is 00:26:09 Stefan Diggs is 10th in the entire. entire NFL in yards per route run against man coverage at 2.59. Again, a minimum of 175 total routes. When you look at first downs per route run, Stefan Diggs is fourth in the entire NFL, 18.39 percent. Pop Douglas is sixth in first downs per route against man coverage at 17.39% 1% behind Diggs. Now, of course, this is not just a wide receiver stat or analytic. It's also a Josh McDaniels and Drake May analytic because McDaniels can scheme these guys open at times against man coverage for sure.

Starting point is 00:26:58 And it takes May to be confident and be able to fire the football into tight windows and make anticipatory throws when he needs to against man coverage. So those are some good numbers, man, at wide receiver against man, which has been, I just said man a lot, which has been an issue for this team the last several years, as we know. Speaking of analytics, let's look at the Patriots after 12 weeks. How do they stack up against the competition? Ben Baldwin released his NFL tiers on Twitter on Tuesday. And what Ben Baldwin does, he looks at offensive and defensive EPA per play.

Starting point is 00:27:38 expected points added and so when you take all 32 NFL teams the Rams are in their own tier they're they're above and beyond anybody else they're playing great football they have to be at this point the favorites to win the Super Bowl a lot can change but right now that is for sure where are the Patriots well the Patriots are actually in tier two they're behind the Rams but nobody else the Patriots are with Indy and Kansas City and Green Bay. And this doesn't go by record. This just, again, goes by EPA on both sides of the football.

Starting point is 00:28:16 So even though Kansas City is six and five, there's still a good football team. The next tier of teams is Detroit, Buffalo, Seattle, Denver. So when you look at EPA per play offensively, defensively, you've got the Rams, and then you've got that second tier of teams of the Patriots, Indie, KC, Green Bay, and then that third tier of Detroit, Buffalo, Seattle, Denver. So the Patriots are absolutely a contender when you look at that breakdown. Chad Graff of The Athletic, he posted NFL tiers since week seven. So that was the entire season I just gave you.

Starting point is 00:28:52 How about the prior six weeks? The Patriots are the second best team in the NFL behind the Rams. And of course, they're well behind the Rams because of how good they've been playing, especially the last six weeks. But the Patriots are the second best team. defensive, offensive EPA per play. Behind the Rams, they're just ahead of the Baltimore Ravens who have their own winning streak going on right now.

Starting point is 00:29:16 So not too shabby. You know what else isn't too shabby? The Patriots are 6 and 0 on the road. They're the only undefeated team in football on the road this year, which speaks volumes because they have a young quarterback and a young team. They're asking a lot of young players to have significant impact on this team this year to take this team on the road and be six and oh the only defeated team in the NFL on the road. I mean, that that speaks volumes to what Mike Vrable has built. This is a,

Starting point is 00:29:49 this is a Mike Vrable statistic. Michael Hurley of NBC Sports Boston wrote, New England went two and seven on the road last year under Gerard Mayo. Prior to that with Bill Belichick, they went three and five in 2023 and four and five in 2022. You talk about mental toughness, you talk about cohesion and chemistry and feeling like a team and in culture and not getting rattled on the road. Shout out to the team and shout out to Mike Vrable. Six and O, the only undefeated team on the road in the NFL at this point of the season. That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being an everydayer.

Starting point is 00:30:32 Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio. Don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Hit that like button as well. Those two things help us, as you know, and don't forget to subscribe. For your second listen, get a double dose of the Lockdown NFL podcast with Tyler the Madman Roland and Tony Wiggins. Find Lockdown NFL on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcast. Have a great day, and we will see you tomorrow for the crossover.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Pressure: Josh McDaniels Must Elevate Offense With Left Side Shakeup

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