Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Preview: Drake Maye Should Dominate | Will Joe Burrow Save Cincinnati?

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Pats are looking for Lucky number nine as they head to Cincinnati. It's time for our deep dive preview. This is Locked on Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host, Nick Cattles, born and raised in New England. I've been covering the Pats for 16 years.

Starting point is 00:00:30 also the co-host of the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattels and a sports radio veteran. Welcome to Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. Before we get started, don't forget, we do a post game live on Sunday. We will do it again following Cincinnati and the Patriots. We will be going live on YouTube, so don't forget to check it out. On this week 12 preview, we tell you how we would defend T. without Jamar Chase on the field, while also giving you a Cincinnati formation that could cause the Pats' defense some issues.

Starting point is 00:01:07 And offensively, find out how the Pats can feast in this matchup. But first, we start with a major reason why the Pats are 9 and 2 heading into this weekend. Today's episode is brought to by Game Time. Download the GameTime at Create an Account. Use code Lockdown NFL for $20 off your first purchase. One of the top priorities for Mike Vrable when he took the head coaching gig for the Patriots was to reconstruct the offensive line and build his type of defensive line. Trench talk, Mike Vrable, fits perfectly.

Starting point is 00:01:43 And at 9 and 2, we can say, check and check. Let's start with the defensive line. Milton Williams and Christian Barmore. Before the season kicked off, we talked about how Milton Williams and Christian Barmore, that tag team combination on the interior of the defensive line was going to create havoc. It was going to cause headaches for any offensive line that they faced. And aside from two quiet weeks from Christian Barmore, hopefully he's passed that after what we saw against the Jets.

Starting point is 00:02:14 But aside from the two quiet weeks from Christian Barmore, you've got to look at this and say, man, oh man, have those guys done absolutely everything we thought that they would do? They've been good against the run and the past. They've been getting some pressure. So when you look at this defensive line between Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, the interior defensive line depth that we've talked about all week because Milton Williams going on the IR really creates opportunity for some other guys on that defensive line.

Starting point is 00:02:46 But the interior defensive line depth, Kyrie's Tonga and Corey Durden and Joshua Farmer, the defensive line has been good to really good, especially against the run. Now, Milton Williams, he is ranked third in ESPN's pass rush win rate metric for interior defensive linemen. He is literally one of the three best pass rushers at his position according to that metric. And one of the biggest questions on Sunday is how are the Patriots going to replace Milton Williams? it's unlikely you're going to replace his production in full.

Starting point is 00:03:26 But how do you replace the body? How do you replace the man? Does Christian Barmore's snaps go up? I think that's unlikely because Christian Barmore did not practice on Wednesday. This is how they have managed him all year long after last season and the blood clots. They are managing Christian Barmore throughout this year. Maybe his snaps get an uptick once you get to the postseason. But right now, I think.

Starting point is 00:03:52 think you handle him the same way you've handled him all year long. You do not go away from your plan because your plan has been working. Kyrie's Tonga, I do think, could get some more snaps on Sunday. His snaps have been going up throughout the year. I would not be surprised if he ends up at his highest snap count against the Bengals. Now, as far as the three technique and rushing the passer like Milton Williams does, would not be surprised if Christian Barmore is there. He played some against the Jets in that spot.

Starting point is 00:04:22 and he was terrific creating pressures from that interior against the New York Jets offensive line. The other guys that could play a role. Corey Durden wouldn't be surprised at all if his snaps go up a little bit. Joshua Farmer, full participant at practice on Thursday, looks like he's going to be back. He has popped a few times on film this year. I wouldn't be surprised if Joshua Farmer gets a couple of more snaps. Don't forget you also have Eric Gregory, former Cincinnati Bangle. Maybe Mike Vrable plays off of that history, right, and throws him out there and says,

Starting point is 00:04:59 we brought you from Cincinnati, we wanted you, we love you, we're going to play you a little bit more this weekend, make it worth our while. So I do think you'll see that heavy rotation still. Kyrie's Tonga, Christian Barmore, the main ingredients, Kyrie's Tagga getting some more snaps. I'm not so sure Christian Barmore will, while those other guys rotate in. And if you keep getting Corey Durden to play the way he has played,

Starting point is 00:05:26 if you keep getting Joshua Farmer to play the way that he has played to go along with Christian Barmore and Kyrie's Tonga, you should have enough on the interior. Now, defensive line-wise on the edges, Caleb-on-chaise on, Harold Landry, you know, before the Tennessee injury to Harold Landry, both those guys were playing really well. Harold Landry's been a little bit more up and down against the pass.

Starting point is 00:05:49 He has not been consistently getting pressure. I don't think he's healthy. He popped up on the injury report this week with a knee, but both Caleb-Cheson and Harold Landry practiced in full on Thursday. They should be out there. So when you look at this defensive line, the run defense, aggressive getting upfield, some of the pressure that they have created,

Starting point is 00:06:09 especially from the interior. Mike Vrable wanted to build his type of defensive line. He's doing that. I think he's going to keep building. Now, the offensive line, they've been much better. They have been much, much better. that you can look at some of the pressure rate metrics and maybe have some concern, but I think those pressure rate metrics are missing the context here because when you look at

Starting point is 00:06:31 the Patriots, they have the sixth best mark of an offensive line in the time to pressure analytic. It is taking 2.85 seconds to get pressure on Drake May. Now, yes, some of that is Drake May's ability to extend plays, maneuver around the pocket, but a lot of that is the offensive line. So, yeah, they're giving up pressure, but how long does it take to get that pressure home? That matters. And the Patriots are sixth in that mark. And they're sixth in time to pressure while they're facing the eighth most blitzes in the league. The Patriots offensive line, an opponent blitz rate, they have faced the eighth most. If you don't believe me about this offensive line, Ben Baldwin tweeted out this week, the past protection

Starting point is 00:07:18 Composite Ratings, which is 40% PFF, 40% SIS, and 20% ESPN pass block win rate. In that pass protection composite rating, all three of those metrics combined, the Patriots have the 11th best past protecting offensive line in football last year. They were 32nd, 31st, 30th almost all year long. Another post from Ben Baldwin. how about when you're in true pass sets the pass block grades of offensive linemen and true pass sets what are true pass sets that excludes plays with less than four pass rushers it excludes the play action it excludes screens it excludes short dropbacks in less than two seconds to throw so when you exclude those types of plays which will help the offensive lineman and their pass protection when you look at the patriots offensive line and true pass sets they have the Ninth best offensive line in football. That's what I'm talking about.

Starting point is 00:08:23 One more post from Ben Baldwin, run block and pass block composite ratings. The Patriots are in the good category. They're in the top 10. The top 10 to 12 when you look at run block and pass block composite ratings. The offensive line has been much better. The defensive line is starting to look like a Mike Rable defensive line. I wish Harold Landry was healthier. But when you look at the O line, the even better news, your left tackle is 21, your left guard is 22, your center is 30 years old, and your right guard turns 28 in December.

Starting point is 00:09:00 Yes, Morgan Moses is 34, but the rest of your offensive line is either very young or just fine in age in NFL terms. The trenches. And the trenches should help on Sunday. Drake May had to be licking his chops watching Cincinnati film this week. That's next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. This episode is brought to by prize picks. You and I make decisions every day, but on prize picks being right can get you paid.

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Starting point is 00:10:46 If you're watching us on YouTube, those likes help. Don't forget to throw a comment in. Who do you like in the game on Sunday? Give me a score. Give me your prediction. And I want to thank all of you because we have surpassed the 7,500 subscriber mark. That was our goal the past few weeks. Now we look towards 8,000.

Starting point is 00:11:03 But thanks to every single one of you who have joined this lockdown Patriots family. Let's continue to build. We go live on Sunday after the game, YouTube. Let's get in on it. No doubt about it. I appreciate every single one of you. Drake May and Josh McDaniels should cook on Sunday. I don't want any excuses.

Starting point is 00:11:23 This matchup is prime. It is prime for Drake May to go absolutely off. The Cincinnati defense is terrible. It's terrible everywhere. How bad is the Cincinnati defense? Aaron shots. He posted. Now, Aaron Schatz created DVOA, that metric. The Bengals have the worst defensive DVOA ever through 10 games, ever.

Starting point is 00:11:49 The worst defensive DVOA ever. It's astounding. They're so bad. And we talked about it during the crossover. If you missed the crossover episode, it all starts with the tackling. I was watching the film between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh last weekend. This is not hyperbolic. The Cincinnati tackling, if you want to call it that, let's put it in air quotes. Cincinnati tackling. It was as bad as I have ever seen on an NFL field.

Starting point is 00:12:21 It was that bad. The linebackers, the defensive backs, equal opportunity on the second and third levels. They could not tackle. Gino Stone looked like he did not want to tackle. Looked like he didn't want to be out there. How bad is the Bengals tackling? When you look at the past defense, Cincinnati is 32nd in yards after contact over expected. Worst in the league, that's bad enough.

Starting point is 00:12:51 But let's dive in deeper because this is the deep dive preview. The yards after contact over expected, or yards after the catch, sorry, over expected, plus 414. 414 more yards than expected after the catch. The Washington commanders are the second worst defense in that metric. I just said Cincinnati is at plus 414. What do you think Washington's at? Give yourself a second, try to figure it out. Do you think they're at 370, 380?

Starting point is 00:13:22 No, no, no, no. Washington is at plus 282. Cincinnati is 130, 140 yards. worse, yards after the contact over-expected than the second worst team in football. And if you think that's bad, here's something else. Cincinnati has that much of a lead over Washington, and they've actually played one less game than the commanders. That's how bad it's been.

Starting point is 00:13:53 Plenty of miscommunication, especially on the second level between linebackers, looking like they have no idea what they're supposed to do. I think Josh McDaniels watched this film and he was sitting next to Drake May going, oh, baby, this is an opportunity to make their life miserable on Sunday, misdirection, play action, jet sweeps attacking the edge. Josh McDaniel is going to play some games on Sunday against this defense because they are lost. And they looked lost against Pittsburgh, a division rival that they played earlier in the year, and they still looked that lost on film. Evan Lazar wrote this week that Cincinnati is 30th in the NFL in success rate against

Starting point is 00:14:39 running back screens. Trayvion Henderson, maybe, a couple of running back screens, maybe a Ramandre Stevenson running back screen if he's back, which it looks like he will be. This Cincinnati pass defense going against Drake May, this Sunday, you know, the Drake May and the MVP conversation, this past defense is 30. second in EPA per pass, their 30 second and yards after the catch, their 28th and average separation, and they lost one of their starting corners last week for the season. Cam Taylor Britt is not going to be playing for the rest of the year. This is literally the worst

Starting point is 00:15:16 past defense in football. And part of that is their pass rush stinks out loud. Now, if Trey Hendrickson was out there, no doubt he would help. He would have a significant impact. He is in the top 10 and pass rush win rate for edges, according to ESPN. But there's no Trey Hendrickson. He's been out the past few weeks. He's going to miss Sunday. Now, Miles Murphy, I will give credit to. I thought Miles Murphy popped against the Steelers last weekend.

Starting point is 00:15:47 And it was, by all accounts, his best NFL game. He had a heck of a football game. But overall, this pass rush is bad. I'll tell you how bad. 29th in pressure rate. Yuck. They are 30th in time to pressure. Remember what I said in the first segment about the Patriots offensive line.

Starting point is 00:16:08 When you look at the context, the pressure rate is higher than a lot of other teams. That's not all in the offensive line, as we've discussed before. But when you look at time to pressure, the Patriots are sixth. So it takes a while to get to that pressure. Well, Cincinnati, 30th in defensive time to pressure. It takes them forever to get to the quarterback. They are 31st overall in team pass rush win rate. They don't win their one-on-ones.

Starting point is 00:16:38 And if that's not bad enough, this time to pressure isn't because they're getting blitzed. There's no team that's been blitzed less, or has blitzed less, rather, than this defense. So it's not like they're failing to get pressure because, Because, you know, oh boy, what's going on here? What's happening? Look, they don't blitz. They don't get to the quarterback. It's brutal.

Starting point is 00:17:09 They don't get to the quarterback quickly. The pass rush is just non-existent. It's non-existent. Drake May in this past game should easily move the football. Drake May is not going to see exotic blitzes. He's not going to see a lot of blitzing at all. He's not going to see defensive edges winning their one-on-one's consistently again, Miles Murphy, Will Campbell's going to do a good job on him,

Starting point is 00:17:31 but Drake Man this past game should easily move it, and he should absolutely freaking eat on Sunday. Ramadre Stevenson, practicing. I think it's likely he's going to play. We'll see. He was moving around during practice on Thursday really well, so it looks pretty positive for him. Trevion Henderson, meanwhile, man, oh man, he's been good.

Starting point is 00:17:55 He's been good the past few weeks. Taylor Kyle's of CLNS posted Trayvion Henderson's rushing since week eight per pro football focus. He is fifth in yards per rush. He is tied for the second most rushing touchdowns. He has the fourth most yards after contact per rush. He has forced the seventh most missed tackles and he is tied for the third most 15 plus yard runs. His 2.4 is, zero yards after contact per rush was from weeks one through seven tied for the eighth fewest. He's gone from 2.4 yards after contact since week 8 to 5.19. And for those saying, oh, it's because of the two huge Tampa runs.

Starting point is 00:18:46 Now, it's not only because of Tampa. Back to Taylor Kyle's, he says, if you take out week 10 versus Tampa, Henderson is still tied for eighth in yards after contact per rush. and he's 10th and yards per rush and he's tied for fourth and missed tackles forced. So even if you take out the Tampa game, he's top 10 in yards after contact per rush, yards per rush, and missed tackles forced. It's bad news for Cincinnati. When you have that type of running back going against your defense that can't tackle.

Starting point is 00:19:18 And even more bad news for Cintzy, because they can't tackle, guess what? They stink against the run. They're 28th in run-stop win rate. They're 32nd dead last in rushing yards per game. They're 30th in rushing yards per attempt. They are 30th in yards after contact per attempt. The Patriots, they've got a menu of options on Sunday. They should be able to throw the football.

Starting point is 00:19:44 They should be able to run the football. And I know they haven't always run it consistently, but against this defense, they should be able to run the football. If they get to the second level, they are going to absolutely eviscerate this run defense. Now, Cincinnati, again, they don't blitz a ton. I know I was a little confusing a few moments ago, but they don't blitz a ton,

Starting point is 00:20:04 but they also don't get a ton of pressure. What they do do is play lots of one high safety, at least they played a lot of single high safety against Pittsburgh. If they decide to play a lot of one high safety against the Patriots, we know what that means. That's going to create opportunities for Drake May to beat the defense over the top. If you're going to play one safety on the back end, Drake May is going to test that safety all day long.

Starting point is 00:20:29 And Kashan Booty, full participant, Wednesday and Thursday, looks like he's going to be back on the field, which of course will exponentially help Drake May with the deep ball. A couple last things here. Patriots want to get the Cincinnati linebackers in space because they're not good in space. So running backs, tight ends. could be a tough combination for these Cincinnati linebackers.

Starting point is 00:21:00 And I know it's just unbelievable. Every stat, it's like it's worse. Cincinnati is 31st on third down. 31st. Second worst team in football on third down defensively. And we know what Drake May has done on third down all year long. And let's put a bow on this. Cincinnati is also 30th defensively in the red zone.

Starting point is 00:21:28 One of the worst defenses in the red zone. The Patriots should put up points on Sunday. Coming up, find out how we defend T. Higgins and a whole lot more. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. NFL season is cruising along, and honestly, there's nothing better than being in the stadium surrounded by fans cheering on your team. But let's be honest. Getting tickets can be a hassle between cues and log-in screens and prices jumping at checkout. It's frustrating. That's why you should use game time. The app that gives the advantage back to fans. Game time is fast, easy, and backed by the game

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Starting point is 00:23:09 Joe Burrow was a full participant at Wednesday's practice. He was a full participant at Thursday's practice. Now, of course, Cincinnati plays on Thanksgiving. So there could be an idea of, well, he's not going to get a full week of practice next week. So let's get him out there as much as possible this week. But I honestly feel like Joe Burrough is going to play on Sunday. I would be surprised at this point if he doesn't play on Sunday. And if he does play on Sunday, that could change the math.

Starting point is 00:23:41 Joe Burrow is a top four or five quarterback in the league. You could argue he is a top three quarterback in a league. You could argue that he was the best quarterback in the league last year. and the only reason why he did not win the MVP is because his defense, shocker, after last segment, was brutal. Joe Burroughs tough, man. He's experienced returning from injury. So, you know, if you wonder about the rust factor, maybe that will help him.

Starting point is 00:24:06 He is super accurate, incredibly competitive, has a very high football IQ. And we'll see how his mobility is moving in and out of the pocket and trying to extend plays and maybe scrambling every once in a while because, of course, he did have surgery on turf toe. That's what he's coming back from. But he is usually a mobile quarterback. Burroughs tough. Now, if it's Joe Flacco, Flacco has limited mobility.

Starting point is 00:24:34 I think he plays hero ball at times. He's got a big arm, but because of that, he'll force some throws down field. He is capable of big plays, but the numbers have not been great. He's 22nd in QBR. He's 31st in passer rating. he's 28th in completion percentage, and he's 32nd in EPA. So he has not been great.

Starting point is 00:24:55 He has not been great. The second big question for the Patriots, aside from who's going to be playing quarterback against them, is how do you defend T. Higgins? Of course, Jamar Chase is going to be out. He's been suspended. The suspension was upheld. So how will the Patriots defend T. Higgins? We talked about this a little bit on the crossover.

Starting point is 00:25:14 Will they devote Christian Gonzalez to T. Higgins and say, shut him down. Will they play sides and wherever T. Higgins lines up, the alignment is the alignment. That's who plays against him. Or will they have Carlton Davis shadow T. Higgins with a safety helping him over the top. Now, what I would do is I would play Carlton Davis with safety help over the top. That's what I would do. I would put Carlton Davis on T. Higgins, give him the safety help, and then Christian Gonzalez can take care of Andre Yose Vash. Take care of Andre Yosey Vash, do what you've got to do, lock him down. And I think that would create a situation where it would be very, very difficult for Joe Burrow or Joe Flacco to consistently make plays in the passing game.

Starting point is 00:26:03 It's old school Belichick stuff. Belichick would do that, right? Take the best receiver of the opposing team and put a good corner on them. Maybe not your best corner, but with safety help over the top and bracket that guy and make sure he doesn't beat you down. field to make sure he doesn't crush you. That's what I would hope to see. Is that what the Patriots are going to do? I have no idea.

Starting point is 00:26:25 No idea. Now, there are a couple things the Patriots have to watch out for defensively. Noah Fant, Mike Gassicki. Yes, old friend Mike Gisicki looks like he's going to play. Patriots have had some problems against two tight end sets. Noah Fant, he can hurt you. He can hurt you after the catch. He's an athletic tight end, a past catching tight end.

Starting point is 00:26:45 So between Noah Fant and Mike Gassicki, there could be some problems for the linebackers and safeties. And Chase Brown, the running back for Cincinnati, he's also a good football player. And he can hurt you in the past game. He made a one-handed catch against the Steelers last weekend, made a nice play out of it. It was a nice soft touch from Joe Flacco,

Starting point is 00:27:04 but it was a really nice catch from Chase Brown who also finished the run pretty well. So the tight ends and the running backs, they could be an issue for the Patriots. They've got to make sure that they don't give up those easy yards against those two positions. And Cincinnati, yes, this is with Jamar Chase, but they are the 10th best offense on third down. And here's something that's concerning. We know the Patriots defensive issues in the red zone.

Starting point is 00:27:32 When you look at it, Cincinnati is the 14th ranked team in red zone offense. So they're just better than average. But against this Patriots red zone defense, we've seen bad red zone offenses, finish drives against this Patriots defense. So third down, red zone. Cincinnati's been pretty good to really good. Now, what hasn't been really good is their offensive line. Their pass protection is not very good.

Starting point is 00:27:57 They're 29th and past block win rate. There are 27th. Here's that stat again. There are 27th in time to pressure. Rushers are getting to Cincinnati quarterbacks within 2.55 seconds. That's quick. and they are 29th an opponent blitz rate. Again, get a little jumbled up last segment about the blitz rates

Starting point is 00:28:19 and switching defense offense. But the Cincinnati pass protection, you know, they're not getting blitzed a lot. 29th in opponent blitz rate, but yet they are one of the worst teams and giving up pressure quickly at 2.55 seconds. So teams are getting pressure. They're getting pressure quickly,

Starting point is 00:28:37 and they're not having the blitz to get that pressure. The offensive line, Ted Carris, is solid, old friend, steady team. Teddy. He is solid. He was solid against Pittsburgh. Right guard was an issue last weekend. Jalen Rivers, a rookie. He was terrible against the Steelers. He also got hurt late in that game. So it might be Dalton Reisner due to injury or just due to not playing well for Jalen Rivers. Dylan Fairchild, their left guard, he's dicey. And the offensive tackles, Orlando Brown on the left side, Amarius Mims on the right side, they can be had. And Orlando Brown can have some issues against

Starting point is 00:29:11 speed. So this offensive line has not been great. And if it's if it's Joe Flacco by the way, Evan Lazar mentioned at Patriots.com, Flacco is averaging negative 0.73 EPA per play while under pressure. He's 28th in the NFL when under pressure. He is the eighth best quarterback in the NFL EPA wise when he has a clean pocket. So if it is Joe Flacco, you want to get pressure on Joe Flacco. He will struggle with that. All right. I'm going to give you two predictions because it depends on the quarterback. If you're wondering this season, I am seven and four straight up. I am six, four and one against the spread. And when you look at it, the Patriots, you know, what's interesting is the quarterback to me kind of does change the math if you're looking at the spread. Now the

Starting point is 00:30:04 spread now is six and a half. It was about eight and a half. Now it's six and a half. I think the Patriots offense is too much for Sinty. There's no doubt in my mind that the Patriots will score points in this football game. It's just how much do the Patriots give up on the other end? So here's what I'll say. If it's Joe Flacco, Patriots win, they cover the spread. I've got like 31.20. If it's Joe Burrow, and I know he doesn't have Jamar Chase, but Chris Alave went off, Drake London went off, Ameca Abuka went off. And those teams didn't. didn't have great number two receivers, right? So I still think Joe Burrow, Noah Fant, the tight end packages, Chase Brown, T. Higgins,

Starting point is 00:30:47 Andre, Yosevosh. I think those guys can put some points up against this defense if Joe Burroughs healthy. And if he's playing, I think he's healthy. So if Joe Burrow is healthy, I would not be shocked if this is a shootout. And I still have the Patriots winning. But I wouldn't be surprised if you're looking at 31, you know, 28, 31, 27, 31-30, something like that, if Joe Burroughs playing. So if it's Flacco, I like the spread.

Starting point is 00:31:17 If it's Burrow, I don't like the spread, but I get the Patriots winning no matter what. That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being in every day. Or reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio. Don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Hit that like button and subscribe. And for your second, listen, get a double dose of Lockdown NFL podcast with Tyler the Madman Roland and Tony Wiggins.

Starting point is 00:31:38 find lockdown NFL on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts. Have a fantastic weekend and we will see you on Sunday for the post game.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Preview: Drake Maye Should Dominate | Will Joe Burrow Save Cincinnati?

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