Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Preview: Patriots Face Desperate Falcons Team With Major Identity Crisis

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Pats face a Jekyll and Hyde football team on Sunday, desperate for a win. Yeah, I'm talking about the Atlanta Falcons. Time for our deep dive preview. This is Lockdown Patriots. You are Locked on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcasts network, your team every day. What's happening? I'm your host, Nick. Cattles, born and raised in New England. I've been covering the Pats for 16 years, also the co-host of the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattels and a sports radio veteran. On today's preview, find out what Atlanta's biggest problem offensively has been and why it likely doesn't matter who is or isn't playing on Sunday. Also, we'll give you two aspects of Drake May's game, which could lead to a big day against this Falcon's defense. But first, Sunday's game might simply boil down to Menthol.

Starting point is 00:01:00 and identity. We appreciate you joining the show, making us your first listen for being it every day or Lockdown Patriots podcast, a proud partner, the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. And I remind you, like, comment, and subscribe. If you're watching on YouTube, that will help a brother out. It'll help a podcast out. And I also remind you coming up on Sunday following Falcons Patriots, we will be going

Starting point is 00:01:24 live on YouTube so you don't want to miss that. This episode is brought to by Mazda, like our podcast. players. We sweat every detail because when you make every move count, pulling off the unexpected is only the beginning. Stay tuned later for highlights in this week's moving the game forward. Mazda move and be moved. Let's talk about Atlanta. Atlanta last weekend was straight up bullied by the Miami Dolphins, which is kind of surprising because Miami looked dead in the water, no pun intended. Because after watching their game against Cleveland, I figured Mike McDaniel would get fired, guys would get traded, season pretty much over.

Starting point is 00:02:00 down in Miami. Not the case. After the Cleveland debacle, Miami goes on the road to Atlanta and they bully and push around the Falcons. And so the biggest question for me as we get ready for Sunday is which Falcons team will we see? We've seen some good Falcons games. Buffalo Bills, Monday Night Football. We've seen debacles last weekend against Miami. One of the worst games I've seen a quarterback play, Michael Pennix, was in Carolina this year. So we've seen some good and we've seen some ugly. So will we see on Sunday an angry, motivated Falcons team or will we see an apathetic whatever Falcons team?

Starting point is 00:02:41 That's really the biggest question. And I've been watching my friends at Lockdown Falcons and the squad show for the Falcons as well. And here are just a couple of quotes. Aaron Freeman, who was on the crossover during yesterday's episode, he said this week, quote, expectations are now in the basement. Unquote. Jarvis Davis on the squad show said, quote, I thought the Panthers were the floor. You lowered it, unquote.

Starting point is 00:03:08 Even A.J. Terrell, one of the best defensive players, the Falcons have, their number one cornerback in the post game last weekend said, quote, our energy was just off, unquote. The vibes are not good in Atlanta right now. But you just can't go off vibes because on the other hand, the Falcons with Rahim Morris, the head coach, they have typically responded when they get their tucasus kicked. They didn't do that last week, but maybe they do it this week against the Patriots on Sunday. And so for this game, to me, it's about mentality and it's about establishing your identity. Out of these two teams, the Patriots have done a much better job of establishing their identity.

Starting point is 00:03:52 And I go back to Mike Frable's introductory press conference and something that we have discussed an awful lot on this podcast. From that point, moving forward, we went through early April, and we went through the draft, we went through camp, and we've gone through eight weeks, and we keep bringing this up, effort and finish. The Falcons did not look like a team last weekend that wanted to give as much effort, and they certainly didn't look like a team that wanted to finish anything. If the Patriots go out there on Sunday, and they follow what their identity has been all year, and they show the effort, and they show the finish on both sides of the football,

Starting point is 00:04:30 you can even include the third phase with special teams, then that's the biggest step to start this game off. Mentality, identity, the Patriots need to impose their will on the Atlanta Falcons, right out of the gates. Don't waste time. Don't spend a quarter going back and forth. Right at the very beginning, impose your will. create doubt in the minds of the Falcons.

Starting point is 00:04:58 They just got pushed around by Miami, and we know Miami. We see them two times every year. Miami is not a physical, brutalizing, bullying football team. They're more finesse. They're more based on their speed. And that team, after getting whooped by Cleveland,

Starting point is 00:05:19 went into Atlanta and pushed the Falcons around. So the Patriots at home on Sunday, they should come out physical and ready to impose their will on the Falcons. Make the Falcons want to return to Atlanta as soon as possible. Make them feel it. Three and four right now. They start having doubts early in this game. They start thinking about being a couple of games under 500 and that ball kind of rolls down the hill. You take advantage of it.

Starting point is 00:05:50 impose your will early and make them want to leave New England, make them not want to be out there for 60 minutes, which brings me to another question for the Patriots. And we talk about identity and we talk about mentality. Can the Patriots play a complete 60 minutes? I don't think they've played a complete 60 minutes, which is kind of crazy. It means that they have a lot of room to improve,

Starting point is 00:06:14 even though they're six and two. And that's why you see Mike Vrable in the locker room when he's talking to the team saying, fellas, we can be better. Fellas, we have another level. You have the slow starts from the defense. Even last week's game, which turned into pretty much a laffer, you didn't finish that game strong. You fumbled the football in the red zone, Trayvion Henderson, you shanked a punt, you failed to

Starting point is 00:06:39 recover an onside kick. Can the Patriots play a full 60 minutes on Sunday? because when we get into next weekend and I don't want to look too far ahead because I don't want the Patriots to overlook Atlanta, but don't forget, don't forget what week 10 has in store for the Patriots on the road at Tampa, a tough buccaneers team. And even though they've slid back a little bit here, they're still talented and they're still tough and it will still be a road game. I want to see the Patriots play a complete 60 minutes. I want to see continued confidence and most importantly execution from beginning to end. All right, let's dive into the matchups now. The Falcons defense poses a challenge for Drake May,

Starting point is 00:07:25 but there are two aspects of May's game that could lead him to flourish on Sunday. Find out what those aspects are next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. This episode is brought to you by Mazda's moving the game forward. For those who believe it's not just about playing the game, it's about redefining it. There are moments that do more than put points on the board. They move crowds, move culture, and keep moving the game forward. And this week's moment that moved the game forward was the play calling of Josh McDaniels immediately following halftime.

Starting point is 00:08:02 It was an offensive coordinator masterpiece on the very first offensive possession of New England in the third quarter. McDaniels dug deep into his play, calling bag, and pulled out a number of plays that left the Cleveland defense stymie. The O.C. called an array of plays challenging the perimeter of the defense, a double-pass trick play for chunk yardage, and a perfectly timed play action bootleg that resulted in a Hunter Henry touchdown and a 16 to 7 lead. Josh McDaniels kept the team moving, making sure a fifth straight win would be accomplished. And when you follow what moves you, the unexpected is only the beginning. And just like there's more to every highlight,

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Starting point is 00:10:10 Don't forget to throw a comment in. How do you feel about this game? Do you think the Patriots win? Let us know in the comments. And don't forget to subscribe. We are now past 7,100 subscribers. Thanks to all of you. All right. Patriots offense, Falcons defense. I will start with the injury

Starting point is 00:10:26 situation for the Falcons. Limited at Thursday's practice. Jesse Bates, safety, starter, good player. Jalen Walker, one of their top picks this year. He has been limited. He's missed the past couple games. Leonard Floyd, another edge, limited. Interior defensive lineman, Zach Harrison, also limited. So some of the more important guys for Atlanta, we'll see if they play on Sunday,

Starting point is 00:10:49 but they were limited on Thursday. Now, the Atlanta defense, in theory, is be fast, be aggressive, have A.J. Terrell on the outside to defend the best receiver when you decide to play man coverage. But lately, what the Falcons defense has looked like is a defense that is declining, a declining pass rush and certainly declining in their physicality. Drake May against the Atlanta pass defense is a compelling matchup because as we know, Drake May, he's the MVP of the first half. We did a podcast on that earlier this week, but the Falcons past defense is the best part of their defense by far.

Starting point is 00:11:30 And statistically, analytically, they've been pretty darn good. When you look at this season, Patriots, pass. yards per game. They are ninth in the NFL, but the Falcons defense passing yards per game given up first. They've given up less than 150 yards passing per game. When you look at EPA per pass, Drake May is second. Falcons defense is 12th. When you look at passing BVOA, the Patriots have the third best passing offense in football. When you look at the Falcons passing BVOA defense, they have the eighth best. So Drake May playing really good football,

Starting point is 00:12:09 but the strongest part of the Falcons defense is absolutely defending the pass. Now part of that is Atlanta is ninth in the league in pressure rate. Now usually when you think about pressure rate and being in the top 10, a lot of times you think you've got a number of guys who are just winning one-on-one. That's not necessarily the case.

Starting point is 00:12:30 Aaron Freeman on the crossover yesterday, if you watched it, talked about the defensive line, taking advantage of some offensive line injuries early in the year, and Aaron Freeman said, look, this defensive line has leveled off the last couple of weeks, and Jalen Walker not being out there certainly has not helped that. Again, he is limited in practice this week. We'll see if he goes on Sunday.

Starting point is 00:12:53 The Falcons, they create pressure thanks to blitzing. They are number one in the NFL in blitz rate. Next Gen Stats has them at 44.9%. That is a pretty outrageous number. To give you an idea, the Falcons are only one of two teams in the NFL that have blitzed at a rate of 40% or higher. I'll give you a comparison. Remember the Pittsburgh Steelers weeks ago? I know we tried to just forget that game because of all the turnovers.

Starting point is 00:13:24 But remember when we got ready, we got ready for that Steelers game, and I previewed that game. and I mentioned how much the Steelers blitz. And the Steelers blitz the decent amount against the Patriots on that Sunday. But as a comparison, again, Atlanta, let's just say they blitz 45% instead of the 44.9%. They blitz 45% of the time. The Steelers, they blitz 35% of the time. The Falcons blitz 10 more percent per game than the Steelers do. That's how much they blitz.

Starting point is 00:13:59 They love sending the heat. But here's the thing. Drake May has been one of the best quarterbacks against the blitz this year. The Patriots have been blitzed at the 12th highest rate in the NFL. Teams are trying to test the young left side of the offensive line. They're trying to test Garrett Bradbury in the middle. But Drake May against the blitz this year. He's got the third best passer rating.

Starting point is 00:14:23 He is number two in completion percentage, but he's number one in completion percentage over expected. he's fourth in EPA, he's third in EPA per dropback. And when you look at, even though the Patriots getting blitzed at the 12th highest rate, Drake May has had 2.71 seconds to throw when he's been blitzed. That's the 12th best mark in the league. So better than average. And of course, it's not just the offensive line. It's Drake May's ability to extend plays, get away from the pressure.

Starting point is 00:14:56 And this is not like Drake May's. been dinking and dunking against the blitz. He actually has the seventh highest yards per attempt against the blitz in the NFL at 8.7 yards per attempt. So you're talking about a defense that loves to blitz, loves to be aggressive against a quarterback who's been one of the best quarterbacks in football this year against the blitz. May's got to be decisive.

Starting point is 00:15:24 The one thing that I'm especially looking for is the pocket awareness and his pocket movement. is he taking too long to get rid of the football? Is he manipulating the pocket, west, east, north, south, to get away from that pressure while remaining a passer. We've talked about that all year. Does he limit his turnover worthy plays?

Starting point is 00:15:46 Don't forget. Don't forget that May. And I know you won't. He had two turnovers against the Steelers. So the Falcons send heat. They're going to be blitzing May. how does Drake May handle that pressure? How does he maneuver around the pocket to buy some time?

Starting point is 00:16:05 Does he remain a passer or just start tucking and running immediately? And he's got to limit those turnover worthy plays. Now, the Falcons, they are number two, an explosive play rate given up. So they have not given up a lot of explosive plays. However, the Patriots might have some opportunity to get the ball down field on Sunday. Mike Hughes, one of the cornerbacks, he has been burnt like toast a few times this year. I think he's given up like three touchdowns on deep passes,

Starting point is 00:16:36 which is not good. And the safeties, the safeties have also given up some bigger plays downfield. So there is some opportunity. You just have to pick your spots. You're not going to have 10, 12, 14 explosive plays against this defense. You might have an opportunity to get a handful of them. and you've got to take advantage of those opportunities when they're in front of you.

Starting point is 00:17:00 And of course, Josh McDaniels, I think he's been very good this year, incredibly experienced. He has certainly faced teams before as an OC who liked to bring a lot of blitz. And you hope that Josh McDaniels takes advantage of that aggressiveness from Atlanta. Maybe a couple of screens thrown in, maybe a couple of draws thrown in, take advantage of it. One question I have is whether or not the Falcons will play, more man coverage. Evan Lazzar wrote this week, and Andrew Callahan wrote something similar about, you know, Drake May has not been the same guy against man coverage than he has been against zone. And Lizar points that out writing, May is the second most efficient passer against zone coverage,

Starting point is 00:17:42 but May's efficiency dips slightly to 13th overall when he faces man coverage. And as for the sacks that May has taken, he has taken the second most sacks, 28, and he has the second highest pressure to sack rate almost 27% among qualified quarterback. So, you know, will the Falcons decide to play man coverage a lot on Sunday? Will they try to drop the efficiency of May by deploying that man coverage? But as Aaron Freeman brought up during our crossover yesterday, you know, when you play man, you're opening the door for Drake May to run and run like bananas. and that has scared teams to not play a ton of man against May.

Starting point is 00:18:26 We'll see if Atlanta decides to do the same. The running backs are going to be crucial, critical in this matchup, and we don't know what's going to happen with Ramandre Stevenson. It feels like he's not going to play on Sunday, but we'll have to wait and see. He did not practice on Wednesday. He did not practice on Thursday. It is a toe issue.

Starting point is 00:18:45 Let's pray to the football gods that it is not turf toe. But we will see what the status is. usually when guys are out on Thursday, it means that they're unlikely to play on Sunday, which begs the question of Trayvion Henderson and Terrell Jennings in their usage. Trayvion Henderson's getting, you know, 15 snaps a week, 20 snaps a week at the most. He's going to see an uptick, I would imagine. Coming off of his best game of his rookie season, I would think that he's going to get the ball more than he usually does it from Andre's out.

Starting point is 00:19:15 And Terrell Jennings, he's also going to get some snaps. The Atlanta run defense, major issues. Now, their 11th in run-stop win rate, which is a really good number. And David Anyamata, their interior defensive lineman, is 10th best in that metric, according to ESPN. But they're 21st and yards per game, 23rd in yards per carry, 27th and stuff percentage, 26th in EPA per rush. And the biggest issue for them is yards after contact. The Falcons are 30th in the NFL and yards after contact.

Starting point is 00:19:47 more than three and a half yards per attempt. That's a bunch. Now, Evan Lazar points out, Atlanta has struggled against gap schemes and power runs. So maybe Terrell Jennings gets more touches than expected if Ramandre can't go because you would think of Terrell Jennings is that more powerful inside the tackle runner. I'm not saying he's going to get 20 carries, but maybe he gets more love than we would anticipate. And that's Josh McDaniel's bread and butter. gap power runs pulling linemen that that's what he loves to do so if you look at what the

Starting point is 00:20:21 Atlanta Falcons have struggled with with their run defense kind of tailor made for a Josh McDaniel's game plan on the ground and if you have success inside the tackles we know what happens then you will open up the play action game open up the bootleg game and open up the perimeter for Trayvion Henderson so Atlanta's run defense you can attack that You can attack that on Sunday. Finally, offensive line. Communication is going to be absolutely ginormous in this game. Mike Vrable, Taylor Kyle's posted about this.

Starting point is 00:20:55 Mike Vrable said the Falcons elite rush likes to rush five from base looks. They're effective on games. We've talked about games, stunts, twists up front that have caused problems for the Patriots offensive line. And they can create problems one-on-one as well. But the Falcons, a lot of exotic looks in passing situations. The amoeba type defense. They will throw a bunch at Drake May.

Starting point is 00:21:19 He's got to be ready. Evan Lazar wrote about the Atlanta defense in passing situations. An obvious passing situations, the Falcons are deploying a Brian Flores-like pressure package. Atlanta disguises their coverage at the third highest rate in the NFL and trails only the Vikings defense in zone pressure rate this season. So they will play a bunch of games. If it's third and long, they're going to play.

Starting point is 00:21:45 play a bunch of games. And Drake May has done a really good job of recognizing disguised defenses and responding accordingly. He has to do that on Sunday or there could be some trouble. Now, earlier this week, I talked about it. You can check it out on the prior podcast we did. But Drake May has been great in obvious passing situations. So Atlanta loves the Blitz. Drake May has been really good against the Blitz. Atlanta likes to get funky and obvious passing situations and cause a lot of trouble for quarterbacks in those types of scenarios, Drake May

Starting point is 00:22:19 has been great and obvious passing situations. If that holds on Sunday, Drake May should be able to take advantage of the Falcons defense and then you also have the run game that we just talked about. One more note. Divine Diablo, huge loss, broke his forearm,

Starting point is 00:22:35 incredibly important part of this defensive puzzle for the Falcons. And J.D. Bertrand, even though I'm a Notre Dame fan, J.D. Bertrand has struggled in coverage, and the Patriots should try to attack J.D. Bertrand over and over and again. All right, Sunday could be the first day the Pat's defense gets off to a good start. We'll tell you why next, as we continue with today's episode of Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

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Starting point is 00:24:11 First and foremost, who is healthy for the Falcons? We'll see. We might have to wait until kickoff or, you know, right before kickoff when the actives come out. Michael Pennix, Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Jake Matthews, all of those guys, limited on Thursday. Pennix in London missed the game last weekend. So we'll keep an eye out.

Starting point is 00:24:34 Now, I would say the Falcons offense overall is mostly mid, with or without those guys, frankly. And the issue has been Zach Robbins, an offensive coordinator. His offense has been unbelievably predictable. A lot of times you'll see run, run, run pass, run, run pass. Very predictable. The Falcons are 32nd in play action. There are 31sts in under sensor rate. A lot of pistol formation. If Michael Pennix is playing, be ready for a lot of pistol formation, shotgun formation running back right behind the QB. And when they run Pistol. Evan Lazzar points out, Atlanta's offense has run the football 71% of the time out of Pistol. That is crazy predictable. You see Pistol, you got a 71% shot that football's going

Starting point is 00:25:25 to be John Robinson. Now, Kurt Warner, he posted this week about the Atlanta offense and he posted boring. Some plays or same plays rather over and over. Don't like the spacing often. Lots of miscommunication just don't really get it. So Kurt Warner destroying Zach Robinson's offense. Now they are number one in motion. You'll see a lot of motion, but they don't do a lot off the motion. So this is a predictable offense, a boring offense. They don't like throwing in the middle of the football field because Michael Pennix is not good doing that. They have not been necessarily effective throwing deep. So you'll see a lot of outs. A lot of footballs towards the boundary. from Michael Penick, if he plays on Sunday.

Starting point is 00:26:12 For the Patriots, continue to dominate the run game. That's Atlanta's bread and butter. Atlanta wants to run the football. Bejohn Robinson is their best player. They know it. The world knows it. And they want to run. But the issue for them is when they have been incapable of running,

Starting point is 00:26:29 when they've had trouble running the football, their offense has stalled out. They have not moved the ball consistently without the run game. I was watching the squad show from the Falcons this week and they were talking about this offense, they don't really have a counterpunch if you limit Bejan Robinson. If you slow this run game down, it's as if Zach Robinson doesn't know what to do. He hasn't shown the ability to counter punch. Now, maybe he'll show that on Sunday, but we take what we've learned so far.

Starting point is 00:26:58 And they just have not had a consistent counter to the lack of a run game. Atlanta's run offense is 31st in rushing yards before contact per. attempt. They're 31st in run block win rate, and they have actually faced the seventh lowest stacked box rate in the league. The Patriots, we know. They've been a dominant run defense, and they've been able to do that without stacking the box. That's not good news for the Falcons offense. And this is mostly Bejohn Robinson's individual effort. He's ninth in the NFL and rushing yards over-expected. He's fourth in yards after contact. You've got to wrap him up. And Bejohn Robinson should be motivated. He had for his standards, he had a bad game last week. He had a

Starting point is 00:27:45 fumble. He had multiple losses and pass protection. And for the Falcons, another part of this offense is it's not a very versatile run scheme. They like to call, as Kurt Warner said, you know, a lot of the same plays over and over and over and over. A lot of times you'll see the same runs over and over and over again. The Patriots have to play physical. They've got to play violent. Make sure you're filling those holes when they're created for Bejohn Robinson. Make sure you're swarming to the ball carrier. And again, make sure you are wrapping up.

Starting point is 00:28:21 Force. Force Atlanta to prove that they have a counterpunch offensively. You also want to get pressure. Whoever's playing quarterback. Kirk Cousins, he's older. He's not moving around great. Michael Pennix is not a quarterback that is comfortable moving around and throwing off the run consistently. These are really two pocket passers.

Starting point is 00:28:44 So whoever's playing quarterback on Sunday, if you get, you got to get pressure. If you get pressure, they will be very, very, very uncomfortable. And I was watching Aaron Freeman from Lockdown Falcons this week, and he brought up an amazing stat. Michael Pennix is, he's one of, literally. he is one of the worst he's one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL against pressure his completion percentage is 39 percent he's been in like the bottom three in that category i mean you get pressure on michael pennix he just doesn't do much he has proven himself to be incapable to consistently beat pressure. 39% completion rate when pressured, according to pro football focused. The league average,

Starting point is 00:29:37 if you're wondering, is 49%. And that is the second worst. Michael Pennix has literally been the second worst in completion rate in the NFL since 2024. Out of qualified passers, he's only ahead of Cam Ward among active starters. You get pressure, and that is bad news from Michael Pennex, and it hasn't been much better for Kirk Cousins when he's been in there. Atlanta's pass protection, not bad. They're 10th in pressure percentage. Their 10th in pass block win rate. Chris Lindstrom, their right guard is 10th in pass block win rate.

Starting point is 00:30:14 They're left tackle. Jake Matthews, again, who is limited on Thursday. He is 20th in past block win rate. But they are 24th in time to pressure again. So they give up pressure at about two and a half seconds. Not great. They are 24th an opponent blitz rate. So teams are not trying to blitz.

Starting point is 00:30:32 They're not too worried about blitzing Atlanta. They're just trying to beat you with their four. And, you know, Jake Matthews has been solid. The rest of the offensive line, you know, Lindstrom has been okay. But the rest of the offensive line has had some questions. The biggest question is right tackle. Elijah Wilkinson has been bad. But the Falcons might have gotten good news because Storm Norton,

Starting point is 00:30:54 who is their swing tackle, he was a full participant on Thursday at practice. So Storm Norton might replace Elijah Wilkinson, and that would be good for Atlanta because Elijah Wilkinson's been that bad. Atlanta struggles versus man. Will the Patriots play man coverage more than usual on Sunday? I would. We'll see if they do. But the challenges here, the Falcons play a lot of two tight end sets. The Patriots have not done great against two tight end sets. And of course, if Zach Robinson wants to kind of empty the chamber, so to speak, and

Starting point is 00:31:26 put Kyle Pitts, if he's healthy and out there, and B. John Robinson, in a position against the Patriots, linebackers, and safeties, if they're deployed as past catchers against linebackers and safeties, especially Bijon Robinson, that could be a problem. That is something to look for. All right,

Starting point is 00:31:42 my prediction, I actually think the Patriots are going to start fast on Sunday. Atlanta is bad defensively in the red zone. They're bad offensively in the red zone. I think the Patriots get off to a fast start. I think they do enough to sustain a lead. I've got the Patriots winning 2717.

Starting point is 00:32:00 That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being an everydayer. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio. And don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel, hit that like button and subscribe for your second listen. Get a double dose of Lockdown NFL podcast with Tyler the Madman Roland and Tony Wiggins. find lockdown NFL on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcast. Have a great day.

Starting point is 00:32:24 Have a great weekend. And we will see you for the post game on Sunday.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Preview: Patriots Face Desperate Falcons Team With Major Identity Crisis

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