Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Reality: New England Patriots’ Playoff Path and AFC East Control Remains

Starting point is 00:00:00 It's time to move on from the second half against Buffalo and look forward. The reality is that the Pats are still in a great spot. This is Lockdown Patriots. You are Locked on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked on Podcasts network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host, Nick Cattels. raised in New England, been covering the paths for the past 16 years, also the co-host of the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattels and a sports radio veteran. Of course, I want to

Starting point is 00:00:40 welcome you to Lockdown Patriots, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network. Now, the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. On today's show, in the third segment, there's a troubling offensive trend that the Pats have to figure out and figure out quickly. In the second segment. Another crucial member of the team was dinged up on Sunday and would be a significant loss. But first, speaking of Sunday, Sunday's second half was not an obituary for this Pat's team or this Pat's season. Today's episode is brought to by Fandul. If you want to be right in the middle of the action this season, visit Fandul.com and place your NFL live bets all season long. 30 minutes of bad football. That's what we saw on Sunday against the bills in the

Starting point is 00:01:28 second half. 30 minutes of bad football. And I am here to tell you that 30 minutes of bad football should not ruin this story. The story of the Patriots in 2025 is of a team that has exceeded expectations. That is a team that has a chance to win the division, a team that has a chance to finish as the number one seed in the AFC, a team that could possibly make a run in the playoffs when not many people expected them to make the playoffs. Here's the reality, even after the brutal 30 minutes of football that we witnessed on Sunday. Here is the reality.

Starting point is 00:02:11 The reality is the Patriots are in a great spot. They are still in control of winning the AFC East. They have that in their hands. If they want to take advantage of the opportunity, they still can. And yes, it would have been much easier to win on Sunday, wrap up the division, and move forward. But that's not what happened. But it doesn't mean that there is no longer an opportunity. The Patriots still have their AFC East destiny in their hands.

Starting point is 00:02:41 If they beat the Jets, week 17, and they beat Miami at Gillette Stadium, week 18, they are the AFC East champions. That's the easiest way to put it. If they win the last two games of the season, no matter what happens, this weekend against Baltimore. You win the final two games of the season. You are the division champions. Chad Graf of the Athletic wrote about this before the Bills game.

Starting point is 00:03:07 He wrote, according to the athletics playoff simulator, the Patriots would still have a 75% chance of winning the division if the bills come to Gillette Stadium and win. And you look at week 17, yes, it's going to be on the road, but the Jets are not good. They just fired their defensive coordinator, so it's still a bit messy in New York. Miami, by the way, thanks to Monday night, a tough loss, bad loss against the Steelers. Shocker and cold weather, Tuatung of Ioloa again couldn't get the job done.

Starting point is 00:03:42 But Miami was officially eliminated from the playoffs on Monday night. Mike McDaniel, during a Tuesday press conference, would not shut down the idea of benching to a Tunga Vialoa. So in both places, you get the Jets firing their defensive coordinator, lost season, trading Sauce Gardner, trading Quinn and Williams, juggling quarterbacks. And now you've got Miami completely out of it. And the head coach publicly wondering if he should bench the starting quarterback, who is still set to earn tens of millions of guarantees.

Starting point is 00:04:23 dollars. You should beat those two teams. You should beat the Jets. You should beat Miami. If you take care of business, you win the division. Here's some more good news. The Patriots can officially get into the playoffs with a win this weekend or with a little bit of help from others this weekend. Here are the scenarios, okay? So the Patriots at the Ravens, Sunday night football, and yes, we will be doing a lot. live post game following that game. It's going to be late on Sunday night, but we will be here on YouTube if you want to join us. The Patriots clinch a playoff berth.

Starting point is 00:05:04 If they win, that's the easiest way. When and you're in, if you tie, you're in, which is pretty rare, I'd say. If that doesn't happen, if you lose on Sunday night against the Ravens, you can still get into the playoffs. if the Colts lose or tie. If that doesn't happen, you could still get into the playoffs if the Texans lose or tie. Now, the Colts are playing on the road against the 49ers on Monday night football.

Starting point is 00:05:37 That's going to be a tough game. As we know, Philip Rivers returned to the NFL this past weekend. Somehow, some way the Colts made it a game against the Seattle Seahawks. I mean, it says an awful lot. about that team. By the way, it's not at San Francisco. I stand corrected. That game is actually in Indy.

Starting point is 00:05:57 So you host the 49ers on Monday night. Philip Rivers will be starting again, according to Shane Stike and the head coach of the Colts. So I think that game is going to be tough. Colts versus the Niners. Houston Texans, I wouldn't even pay attention. They're playing the Raiders. And they're going to be in Houston.

Starting point is 00:06:15 I would anticipate Houston easily dispatching the Las Vegas. the Las Vegas Raiders. But if you win or tie against Baltimore or Indy loses or ties against the Niners on Monday night, you're in. Now, I would say, because we are fair, we're reasonable, and I try to tell you the truth

Starting point is 00:06:36 every single time when I sit down for this podcast, I would say the number one seed in the AFC is unlikely after this past weekend. Denver beat Green Bay. Patrick Mahomes, tore his ACL, what does that have to do with anything with the Chiefs out? I'll tell you, the Broncos play the Chiefs on Christmas. So the Broncos against Gardner Minshu, much, much easier task for them in that defense

Starting point is 00:07:04 than going against Patrick Mahomes, even though Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs haven't been very good offensively for the past few weeks. Still easier assignment against Gardner Minshue. And they now have a cushion between themselves and the Patriots with them beating in Green Bay and the Patriots losing the Buffalo. So the number one seed, I think, is more unlikely after last weekend, but the Patriots are still in good shape when it comes to seating. Seth Walder, Analytics from ESPN, he posted his updated playoff seating forecast.

Starting point is 00:07:36 The Patriots have a 9.5% chance of getting the one seat. Again, not great, but they have a 43.9% chance of getting the two seed, an 11.9% chance chance of getting the three seed. So the Patriots have a 99% chance of making the playoffs. They have a better than 50-50 shot of being a top two seat at 53.4%. And they have better than a 65% shot of being a top three seed at 65.3%. Again, the Patriots, even after that brutal 30 minutes against the bills, are in a fantastic spot. Expectations are fluid. They're fluid, but I will say this. Before the season

Starting point is 00:08:23 kicked off, we knew the schedule. We knew the schedule was going to be soft. And still, with that soft schedule and knowing who was on this roster and being well aware of who was on the coaching staff and knowing that Drake May showed flashes last year, we had all that information before the season kicked off. And with the schedule, with the roster, with the staff, with the quarterback situation. Not many people anticipated the Patriots sitting here at 11 and 3 on the precipice of making the playoffs

Starting point is 00:08:56 and still in control of the division with a great opportunity to win the AFC East. So things last weekend did not go as planned, but that was not an obituary. This team is still a great story, and this team still has the chance to continue that story over the next several weeks. You know, we were so focused on the result versus the bills

Starting point is 00:09:24 that we might have overlooked a significant injury situation. That's next as we continue with today's Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team, every day. You ever feel like your money just disappears each month? It happens fast. A few subscriptions here, an impulse. by there. And suddenly the numbers in your bank account don't match the numbers in your head. Rocket money helps you get clarity. Track every dollar and stay in control of your finances because

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Starting point is 00:10:31 That's rocketmoney.com slash lockdown. Rocketmoney.com slash lockdown. You know, you already live your team every day. now take it up a level go ad free that's right i said add free join the everyday club today and get locked on patriots with no interruptions members only discord access and more all for just five bucks a month one two three four fift or fifty dollars for the year go to lockdown patriots dot supercast dot com or check the link in the show notes to learn more also don't forget to help us out here at lockdown patriots if you're watching on youtube if you're listening

Starting point is 00:11:14 make sure you click that like button. And even if you're not watching on YouTube, venture over to YouTube. If you don't mind, click that thumbs up for us. Don't forget to throw a comment in. How do you feel about the Patriots, the spot that they're in, which I still think is a great spot. Let us know what your comments and don't forget to subscribe. Marcus Jones against the bills in the second half, he was dinged up. He was dinged up.

Starting point is 00:11:39 And Greg Bedard on the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattels happened to mention. that Marcus Jones could not take his pads off in the locker room after the game. He actually needed help to remove his pads. Now, I know a lot of people are frustrated by Marcus Jones and how he played on Sunday and he was not very good, especially in the second half. But Marcus Jones has been really good this year. And if Marcus Jones has to miss any period of time, that is a significant injury for the Patriots. It is a big injury for that defense.

Starting point is 00:12:16 Playing the nickelback position is vital for Mike Vrable defense. He talked about this during his introductory press conference. He talked about it during all sorts of the press conferences he held from that introductory press conference all the way through camp and up into the season. The nickelback position has a number of responsibilities. You obviously have to be good in coverage first and foremost. most. You have to be good in run defense. Mike Vrable likes his cornerbacks to be physical. He likes his corners to be coming downhill. When you're in the slot, closer to the line of scrimmage, you got to be good in your run defense. You will also see Marcus Jones used as a

Starting point is 00:13:01 blitzer with this defense. So they bank on him to cover. They bank on him to play good run defense. They bank on him as a blitzer to get to the quarterback, and he brings the speed element to the secondary. Christian Gonzalez has great speed. Carlton Davis, not as speedy as those two other guys, but when you look at this secondary as a whole, I wouldn't say Jalen Hawkins is a burner. I wouldn't say, you know, really anybody is a burner outside of Marcus Jones and Christian Gonzalez. So, you know, when you look at that, when you look at the compliments that you have in that secondary, it always helps to have somebody who can make up space very quickly. And when you see this defense swarm to the ball carrier. Now, we mentioned this

Starting point is 00:13:58 during the show, I believe it was on yesterday's episode, that the Patriots, the mistackles were just huge. The mistackles were a disaster. The second most mistackles. that we've seen since that Pittsburgh Steelers loss weeks and weeks and weeks ago in September. But part of the Patriots in their success up until this past Sunday, getting to the ball carrier and making sure that you're swarming and making that tackle, part of that obviously is speed. You can make up a big amount of ground and a short amount of time.

Starting point is 00:14:30 And when you have Marcus Jones out there swarming, he absolutely helps the defense at all. levels of the football field, not just his own level of the field. So a lot of responsibilities and, you know, a lot of things that Marcus Jones does to help this defense that should not be overlooked. Secondly, Marcus Jones is incredibly versatile because he can not only just sit out there and say, hey, I'm going to play in the slot, I'm going to play the nickelback. We've seen Marcus Jones slide to the outside.

Starting point is 00:15:06 We've seen him defend guys at the boundary. Now, yes, his frame, the size, it's an issue against certain receivers. It is going to be a tough task for him to play outside. But he is capable of playing outside, and he has played outside, which means when you have a cornerback room that includes Carlton Davis, who seemingly has hurt every week, he's fought through it, props to him, but again against the bills, he left the game with a groin injury. he came back, but Carlton Davis, his injury history is his injury history.

Starting point is 00:15:42 Christian Gonzalez also has an injury history. So your top two corners, Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis, both have injury histories and both have been banged up this year. So when you're looking at your third corner and Marcus Jones, if he has to miss any time, man, oh man. We talk about this roster being thin, and we saw it on Sunday. Robert Spillane out. Jack Gibbons has to play a ton.

Starting point is 00:16:13 He wasn't very good. Milton Williams out. Joshua Farmer. Corey Durden. Those guys have been pretty good up until Sunday. They both took a step back. Karees Tonga, who's playing through an injury. He was not good on Sunday.

Starting point is 00:16:28 And you start to see, you start to see the chipping away. When you start to lose your frontline players, and you're really just starting a rebuild for all intents and purposes, even though this season has gone as great as it's gone. You have to understand the depth of this team is suffering. That's why the Patriots did not make any trades at the trading deadline. They want to keep their picks because they look at this roster and they say, yeah, we're not deep in a lot of positions and we're going to have to replace some really important guys

Starting point is 00:17:01 in the next year or two years. So when you look at cornerback specifically with Christian Gonzalez, with Carlton Davis, Davis now 28, 29 years old, now you're looking at Marcus Jones being banged up. And then you look at your cornerback depth beyond those guys. Charles Woods, I will say, he got beat on one play when he first went in on Sunday against the bills. He replaced Carlton Davis when Carlton Davis went out with the groin. Charles Woods, though, overall played pretty good, showed pretty good coverage. But you've got Charles Woods, you've got Miles Battle, and you've got Kobe Minor, who was Mr. Irrelevant in the 2025 draft. Those are your three corners that you're looking at. Brandon Crossley also involved in the practice squad, but you would think the next three guys up would be Charles Woods, Miles Battle, and Kobe Minor.

Starting point is 00:17:51 All of a sudden, you're looking at cornerback and you're wondering, right? And now you've got an injury. If Marcus Jones misses any time, you have a significant injury at every level. of your defense. Milton Williams on the defensive line, Robert Spillane at linebacker, and now you add Marcus Jones at cornerback. Every single level of your defense is impacted. And that's tough, man. That's tough when your defense had the second half they had against the bills. It's tough when your red zone defense has literally been the worst in football. Oh, and by the way, do you happen to know how Marcus Jones is on special teams?

Starting point is 00:18:31 Literally one of the best punt returners that the game has had in the past several years, literally one of the best punt returners in Patriot's history, you're talking about a guy who could be an absolute game changer with one punt return during a close game. And as we get closer to the postseason, everything matters. I mean, Marcus Jones, his electricity in the return game can single-handedly turn a playoff game. You saw how important special teams is on Sunday. The kick returns that help the Buffalo Bills

Starting point is 00:19:11 win that game inevitably. So Marcus Jones, if he has to miss any time, that is a significant loss. And you're looking at your left tackle being out. You're looking at your best defensive player being out. You're looking at your best linebacker being out. That's right now. If you add Marcus Jones, it gets even tougher.

Starting point is 00:19:34 All right. There is a troubling trend. Patriots are in a great spot, but it doesn't mean that everything is going swimmingly right now. There's a troubling offensive trend that needs to be figured out fast. We'll tell you what that trend is, how we got here. Coming up next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network,

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Starting point is 00:20:59 you so can you there's a growing trend for this offense that is becoming a problem the second half offense has not been good enough it hasn't been nearly as good as the first half offense has been and evan lazar at patriots dot com wrote about that this week he wrote new england is the top ranked offense in first half points EPA per play and is second behind only the rams in first half offensive success rate. However, on the season, the Patriots are 22nd in points scored and 14th in EPA per play in the second half. So they go from the top ranked offense in first half points to the 22nd second half

Starting point is 00:21:50 offense and points. And they go from being the top ranked offense EPA per play down to 14th in the second have. Obviously, no bueno. And the question is, why? Why is this happening? Let's first turn our attention to the play caller Josh McDaniels. I think Josh McDaniels has done mostly a terrific job this year. But I do think on occasion, the Patriots have turned conservative with leads. They've turned into this. We're going to try to run the football. We're going to try to run the football on early downs. And it's almost like they're trying to hold on to their lead with their life. Now, that will lead to some safe calls. That will lead to a lack of creativity.

Starting point is 00:22:41 That's not what happened against the bills. I know some people were immediately, for whatever reason, the Patriot scored seven points in the second half against the bills and people were, you know, shooting tweets at me and dropping comments about, oh, they just, they become way too conservative in the second half. That's not what happened. against the bills. As a matter of fact, I would argue the Patriots should have run, and I have argued they should have run a heck of a lot more in the third quarter. One run play call out of 10 play calls in the third quarter, and they only ran the football three designed times in the second half against the bill. So that's not what happened against Buffalo. However, there has been

Starting point is 00:23:18 an argument, and I think it's a reasonable argument, that the Patriots, when they've had leads, they tend to just kind of sit on the ball. And maybe that's what Josh McDaniels was thinking. Maybe he was thinking about the criticisms. You know, you self-scout during the byweek. And maybe Josh McDaniels saw what a lot of people were seeing. Maybe, you know, he realized or maybe appreciated it just a little bit more that, hey, we are getting a wee, two-bit conservative with leads in the second half.

Starting point is 00:23:48 And he's thinking that. And maybe he's saying we have a chance to put our foot down on their throat right now. so let's go out there, let's not slow it down, let's not run the football, let's change it up, let's throw a curve ball at the bills. Well, obviously, it didn't work. But I do think that that conservative play calling in the second half, especially on early downs, has hurt the Patriots at times, and they've almost been afraid to be aggressive with a lead. Secondly, Drake May has not been the same guy in the second half as in the first half lately.

Starting point is 00:24:20 Doug Kide posted this since week nine. I'm going to compare Drake May in the first half versus the second half. We're talking about ever since the Atlanta Falcons game. So week nine, so we're talking Atlanta, Tampa, the Jets, Sinti, the Giants, the Giants, the Bills. Okay. Those are the six teams that we're talking about that Drake May has faced since week nine. In the first half of those games, Drake May's EPA per play is plus 0.35. In the second half of those games, it is a negative 0.07.

Starting point is 00:25:03 In the first half since week 9, Drake May's success rate is 57.1%. In the second half of those games, his success rate goes from 57.1 down to 38.9%. his completion percentage goes from 73.2% in the first half to 57% in the second half. Touchdowns. He has seven passing touchdowns in the first half since week nine. He has one passing touchdown in the second half since week nine. He has one interception in the first half, three interceptions in the second half, and his yards per attempt go way down. 9.6 yards per attempt in the first half, 7.1 yards per attempt in the second half. So the offense is not as good in the second half.

Starting point is 00:25:58 And since week nine, Drake May has not been as good in the second half. I don't think that's a coincidence. I think that directly relates. Your offense is not as good in the second half. Your quarterback is not as good in the second half. Now, I'm making sure I throw this disclaimer out there before people start throwing tomatoes at their computer screens or TV screens watching this, or maybe you want to

Starting point is 00:26:25 just punch the radio if you're listening on the radio, however you listen, right? Those stats are not on May, like not all on May, okay? They're not all on the quarterback. Again, the early down offense hurts. How many times have we talked about it this year? where Drake May has had to save this offense, third and medium, third and long. And it's tougher to consistently convert those types of third downs. And so the early down offense, the lack of a run game, the lack of creativity,

Starting point is 00:26:58 the lack of explosivity at times, that's going to hurt the offense as a whole. And of course, it's going to hurt the quarterback. That's why, you know, you look at these stats. and Drake May is obviously responsible for a decent portion of the difference between the first half and the second half since week nine, but you don't put it all on him. The quarterback is a dependent position. I said that even with Mack Jones at quarterback. You depend on the level of your teammates.

Starting point is 00:27:26 And for, you know, Drake May, a lot of this season, he's third and seven, third and nine, third and 15, saving this team's took us. so the early down offense has not been consistent it's been getting better i feel but that's kind of more an eye test than actual stats and information you also have to put into account the time and the score right how much time is left in the game what is the score of the game what is the purpose of the offense what is their approach like yards per attempt in the second half going down to me that's not as newsworthy quote unquote because again if you look at this offense in the second half it's been less risky. It's been more conservative and safe. I also think Stefan Diggs has not been the same guy for the past few weeks. And Stefan Diggs is a huge piece of this offense. He's in his early 30s. He had the ACL and the surgery. He had to play 13 straight weeks before his by week. And all of that is probably accumulating and resulting in a different Stefan Diggs. And so, you know, he's not at the same level.

Starting point is 00:28:40 The offense is going to have trouble being at the same level. You also look at, well, since week nine, you know, how many guys have been missing? Well, Kishon Booty got hurt against Atlanta. He didn't have a single catch. And then he missed the next two games against Tampa and the Jets. So you had one of your best receivers out for three of those games for all intents and purposes. Your yards per attempt are going to go down because Kishon Booty is one of your top most trusted guys downfield, as we saw on the one elite throw from Drake May

Starting point is 00:29:11 against the bills, who did it go to? It went to Kashan Booty. And you also have to look at Pop Douglas. If you're running the football more and you tend to go a little bit more conservative in the second half, Pop Douglas is not going to be on the field. We've talked about that. He is not a good run blocker because of his size. So Pop's role is limited with more emphasis on the run game. So there are a lot of reasons that this offense has been falling off in the second half, but they've got to fix it. The Patriots have to fix it. You've got three weeks to improve upon that before you get to the playoffs. You're going to start figuring this out. You can't just die on the vine in the second half. All right, that wraps up this

Starting point is 00:29:55 edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being an every dare. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio. Don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel, hit that like button and subscribe. And if you need a last minute holiday gift or someone keeps asking you what you want, make it easy. Ask for the everydayer club. Add free episodes of this show, exclusive Discord server access, and more. Subscriptions can be gifted through lockdownpatriots.

Starting point is 00:30:22 com. And as I always say, have a great day. And we will see you tomorrow. And of course, tomorrow it's going to be the crossover. See you then.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Reality: New England Patriots’ Playoff Path and AFC East Control Remains

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