Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - RED ALERT: Patriots Must Adjust If Offensive Tackles Disappear Early | Mailbag

Starting point is 00:00:00 There's a scenario this week that would put the Pats in a bind and they want no part of. That more in this week's mailbag. This is Lockdown Patriots. You are Locked on Patriots. Your daily New England Patriots podcast. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host of Nick Cattles.

Starting point is 00:00:28 With the likely A.J. Brown trade happening after this year's draft, there's an interesting option on the table that could saturate. satisfy both teams. In the second segment, the draft plan should not change entirely, even with Brown being likely. But first, the scenario that would leave many of us, including myself, disappointed in draft weekend. Today's episode is brought to by a Fandul. Right now, new customers can bet just $5 and get $250 in bonus bets. If your first bet wins, head to fandul.com to get started. All right, let's start with the first question from Toby Hawke. Understanding that a starting caliber offensive tackle has to be taken in the first round,

Starting point is 00:01:11 what if an edge run happens in the second and we can't get one of the top ones? How would you feel about the draft? Well, this is certainly a possibility, Toby Hawk. The general sense, I've been reading all sorts of articles and columns, opinion pieces on the draft coming up. I've been watching a number of podcasts in the general sense that I get from reading, watching, listening, is that seven offensive tackles are likely to go in the first round of this draft. Now, who are those seven tackles?

Starting point is 00:01:46 Francis Maui Noah, Caden Proctor, Monroe Freeling, and then you have Blake Miller, Maxi Hennichor, Caleb Lomu, and Spencer Fano. So those are the seven names. Maui Noah, Proctor, Freeling, Miller, Ihanichor, Lomu, Fano. Now, there's a legitimate scenario, legitimate scenario, that all seven of those guys will be gone by the Patriots pick at number 31. I was watching Adam Schaefter in his latest podcast, and he mentioned how he thought there would be 10 offensive linemen selected from pick 11 to pick 31. So all of these guys could be gone. The most likely to be there, and this is just again, reading and watching and listening, it could actually be Caleb Lomu.

Starting point is 00:02:43 So Jonathan Jones of CBS came out with his one and only mock draft, and that mock draft had Caleb Lomu going to the Patriots at number 31. If one of those seven tackles fall, and you're sitting there for, you know, 30 picks waiting until you get to pick 63 in the second round. And you're hoping that an edge falls to 63. So if one of those seven tackles fall, you take them at 31, you got to sit 30 picks. Now, of course, you can try to trade up. But under the scenario that Toby Hawk put out there for us, you're looking at 63 and you're waiting and you're hoping. you're wishing, you're praying that an edge falls to you.

Starting point is 00:03:30 And it might not happen. Now, I do feel like somebody will be there at 63, but if not, we can just go back to our final mock draft earlier this week. And when I made the decision to trade up and draft Jacob Rodriguez, I thought that an edge was going to fall to me. Now, of course, I thought an edge would fall to me at 95. There's a big fence between 95 in the third round and 63 in the second. If you don't land an edge, if you don't land an edge with one of your first three picks,

Starting point is 00:04:02 that's a really, really tough situation. It is the number one need. I've talked about it. Now, you can pivot. You can go back to free agency. And I mentioned this at the end of my mock draft this week, the final mock draft. You can certainly pivot and try to sign a veteran at defensive end, try to find that vet edge. But you really want to leave this draft, I feel, like you really want to leave.

Starting point is 00:04:25 this draft with an edge out of one of your first three picks. I think somebody will fall to 63 that you'll like, but you never know. That's why the draft is an inexact science. Next question. From Legacy Ocho, do we take an offensive lineman or a defensive lineman first, not specifically in the first round? So which position, which line will the Patriots look at and which will they draft first? Offensive line, defensive line.

Starting point is 00:04:54 I think this is a great question. It's entirely dependent on how the board falls. Again, if all seven tackles we just mentioned in the last question, if all seven tackles are gone by 31, that changes the math. If every single one of those seven guys are out, I would lean defensive line. I would lean at least to the edge. Now, maybe the Patriots, this is something we've discussed recently.

Starting point is 00:05:20 Maybe the Patriots are looking at guard, interior offensive line. But if you're asking me, I would take if all seven of those tackles are gone by 31, I would be looking at defensive line. I would not be drafting an edge. I mean, I would not be drafting a guard. Sorry. It's more likely to me that an edge falls to 31 than an offensive tackle. Because I think the league is hungry for offensive linemen.

Starting point is 00:05:47 We've talked about it, the lack of depth up front, college offensive linemen, tougher transitions to the NFL nowadays. So I think there are a lot of teams looking for offensive line health. If you're looking at interior offensive line, again, I'll be looking at, you know, late day two, day three for a guard, that that's how I would approach it. I would go into this thing saying to myself, day three for an interior offensive lineman,

Starting point is 00:06:15 hope one of those tackles fall to me at 31. If not, I'm leaning edge. Now, there are other possibilities at 31. Emmanuel McNeil, Warren, the safety from Toledo, he might fall. Could it be a wide receiver if that person falls, that you are absolutely in love with? Maybe they absolutely love Casey Concepcion. Maybe they absolutely love Denzel Boston. And yes, we'll talk about the receivers and A.J. Brown and how that might impact it.

Starting point is 00:06:46 But that's how this all works, right? Will all seven tackles be gone? it's more likely an edge falls to 31 than a tackle. Interior offensive line I'm looking at probably day three. Any other possibilities? Emmanuel McNeil Warren you could throw out there. Omar Cooper Jr. KCC. But to me, it's like if Blake Miller or a Hanachore fall,

Starting point is 00:07:13 I think it's going to be one of them. But I'm not sold that either of them are going to be there. All right, let's get to our next question. QT to Goat, 2,24. And again, I think all seven tackles could be gone. So I would lean towards defensive line if that's the case. If one of those tackles falls, it's offensive line. All right, QT to go to 225.

Starting point is 00:07:35 With the AJ Brown news, do you think the Pats are more willing to move up in the draft and have a go-for-it mentality? I actually don't think they would have a go-for-it mentality. I actually think the opposite. Because if you're going to trade for A.J. Brown, then you're dealing draft capital. And so you're already dealing capital for Brown. If you're going to trade up, you're trading more capital to move up. And that's just a lot of assets to give up when you're still trying to be a draft and development football team.

Starting point is 00:08:07 So that's the first thing. The amount of capital you're willing to give up, I'm not so sure the Patriots would be willing to give up picks for Brown and give up picks to move up from 31 to say, I don't know, 20, 25. If you move up to 20, you got to give up your second round pick. If you move up to around 25, you're looking at your third round pick. Now, maybe they feel like it's worth it. It's all about the price. It's all about who's there. But I think it's less likely they trade assets if they're going to trade assets for Brown.

Starting point is 00:08:36 I would also ask the question of which position are you moving up to grab. I mean, when you think about this logically, if you're trading assets for AJ Brown, I find it difficult to believe they'll trade even more assets, night of the first round to move up to draft a receiver. That's way too much, way too much at that position. Then you look at offensive tackle. Are you willing to give up picks to move up to draft somebody who might not play until 2027?

Starting point is 00:09:04 Legitimate, tough question. How about edge? Are you willing to move up to draft an edge when you think you feel pretty confidently that one will drop to you at 31 that you'll like? Do you want to give up capital just to give up capital? would you trade assets to move up to pick an edge who might be the third guy in your rotation? I mean, if you're confident that Landry is going to be healthy and you signed Draymont Jones, are you going to move up to bring somebody in who's going to be third in that rotation?

Starting point is 00:09:34 So these are all the questions you could ask yourself. But I think, you know, big picture, if you're acquiring A.J. Brown via trade, I think it's less likely that you make that kind of a move. You want to move up for a safety? You want to move up for Emmanuel McNeil Warren when you have Kevin Byard and Craig Woodson set to start in 2026? Do you want to try to trade up and get Emmanuel McNeil Warren when he might fall to you at 31? I actually would not be shocked if the Pats moved down in this draft because of A.J. Brown. Think about it. If you're giving up assets for A.J. Brown, that might make you think about moving down more than you had before so you could gain some assets,

Starting point is 00:10:17 knowing you're going to give some up for A.J. Brown. All right. Planning for this week's draft and acquiring Brown. That's next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. Spring is a natural reset point. If there's one thing that can quietly cost businesses money, it's messy communication. Missed calls, scattered texts, no clear threat of who said what. That's why today's episode is brought to by Quo, spelled QUO,

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Starting point is 00:12:45 Speaking of the Everydayer Club, add free episodes, access to a group chat with other listeners of this show. tap the link in the show notes to find out more or go to lockdown patriots dot supercast.com. Don't forget on YouTube, like, comment, and subscribe. Also, don't forget, we are going to go live. Going to go live following the first round of the draft on Thursday night. Hopefully it's a lot of fun. Hopefully we enjoy what the Patriots do. Again, that's coming up Thursday night on YouTube live following round one of the draft.

Starting point is 00:13:16 All right, let's continue with the questions, lots and lots of AJ Brown questions. following all the stories that came out on Monday. Let's go to Los Talks Pats. Los Talks Pats with the recent A.J. Brown news, would you want New England to still draft a wide receiver? If so, what archetype, slot X, et cetera? Look, we've discussed this in parts over the past few weeks. I am all for the Patriots to draft a wide receiver this week.

Starting point is 00:13:48 even if you're going to trade for AJ Brown in June, I am still all for the Patriots to pull the trigger in this draft on a wide receiver. Kishon Booty, as we have talked about and we'll talk about even more later on in this mailbag, I do not think he is in your long-term plans. I do not think he is going to be a Patriot for much longer. So you're going to already subtract a receiver from the room. I still question Pop Douglas's fit, even though Mike Vrable, was, you know, pumping and pumping and pumping those tires at the league meeting.

Starting point is 00:14:22 I still question his fit. And let's not forget, his contract is also coming up. I've said before I would not be shocked if Pop Douglas eventually gets traded. Mack Hollins is 33 years old in September. He's walking into the final year of his contract. Even Kyle Williams, who I like and I am optimistic that Kyle Williams is going to make a rather a big step forward this year. he's an unknown. I mean, I could love him.

Starting point is 00:14:53 I could like him. I could believe in him. But until he proves that he can consistently play at the NFL level, he is an unknown. So right now in this wide receiver room, beyond Romeo Dobbs, you've got booty likely gone. Pop could be gone. Holland's going to be 33 when the season kicks off.

Starting point is 00:15:09 Could be gone after 2026. Kyle Williams is an unknown. So four of your six receivers, you've got questions. And the other guys, Efton Chisholm, who was an undrafted free agent. So I don't think it's crazy for the Patriots to draft a wide receiver. How long can A.J. Brown produce at a high level. I mean, I'm a fan.

Starting point is 00:15:33 I'm a big fan of the idea, trading for A.J. Brown. Of course, we've got to see what it costs, blah, blah. We'll talk about that in a little bit. But I'm a big fan of acquiring A.J. Brown. But even myself, I look at it and say, what is it, a two-year window? maybe at the most a three-year window where he produces at a high level. There are concerns about the knees that we've read about. So I think you've got to continue to look at receiver.

Starting point is 00:15:58 Now, of course, given how this roster is currently constituted, an inside wide receiver would make more sense. You know, Casey Concepcion does have some versatility, but you can easily play him inside. Omar Cooper Jr. is seen more as an inside receiver. but if you're not going to spend that kind of capital on a receiver because you're going to trade for Brown, which I would understand, then yeah, you're still looking at a receiver in the middle rounds,

Starting point is 00:16:25 second round, third round, one of those two fourth round picks. To draft a developmental guy is not a bad idea. Again, you feel good about the room. You feel great about it if you acquire Brown, but you have all those questions in there. So yes, I would still be looking for a wide receiver during the draft. and I would most likely be looking at, you know, an inside guy, unless it's a really, really raw prospect on the outside who, you know,

Starting point is 00:16:51 might take a year and a half, two years to fully develop because, again, by then, Brown probably not the same guy. K underscore Roberts 48. How do we draft now preparing for an A.J. Brown trade? I don't think a ton will change for the Patriots with or without Brown outside of the wide receiver conversation we just had. And I really think it's only a tough call in round one if you have, you know, Denzel Boston,

Starting point is 00:17:19 Casey Concepcion, or Omar Cooper dropping to 31. I don't think KCC or Cooper are going to drop. The only guy that I think could drop to the Patriots at 31 is Denzel Boston. And I do think if you're going to acquire Brown, you have that knowledge in the back of your head. You feel really good about that. You're probably saying, thanks but no thanks to Denzel Boston.

Starting point is 00:17:44 But if I had to get shot with Truth Serum, and I don't even have to get shot with Truth Serum, shoot, I'll just tell you right now. I think all three guys are gone. I think all three of those receivers are going to be gone. Boston, Concepcion, Cooper, all gone. To go along with Carnell Tate, Mackay Lemon, and Jordan Tyson,

Starting point is 00:18:04 I think all those guys are going to be gone by 31. I do not think it's nuts to think the Patriots would still look at offensive tackle or edge, you know, without Brown and one of those wide receivers there. I think the Patriots could still look at tackle and edge and say, we need one of those over a wide receiver. We need both of those over a wide receiver. And we feel like we can get a wide receiver in round three or four.

Starting point is 00:18:29 Even without Brown, I don't think the Patriots would be crazy if they thought that. And then you look at options, you know, without Brown or a wide receiver pick at 31. You could draft a receiver in the second third. You're going to draft a tight end. You can run more. So even if you don't have Brown and even if you don't pick a receiver at 31, there are different options on the table.

Starting point is 00:18:55 Get your receiver a little bit later. Focus on a tight end and have that be the weapon that you invest in early, running the football more and just say, we don't really need to throw the football a billion times because we're going to run it better. Given, I think, again, all the sexy wide receivers I think are going to be gone. I would not be surprised if all the tackles we've talked about are gone. And so inevitably, you could be just looking at best player available.

Starting point is 00:19:25 And that doesn't really, you know, involve Brown. All right, Grod 4. What is good value for the pads to trade for AJB? Let's start with leverage. Who has leverage? Both. How about that? Both.

Starting point is 00:19:39 You know, does A.J. Brown want out from what we know, yes. The Patriots probably know that. That hurts Philly. That hurts Philly's leverage. Does Philly want to give Don Tavian Wick's opportunities to produce, to justify that $12 plus million extensiony sign for 2027? I would say yes. If so, hurts Phillies leverage a little bit. Are the Patriots desperate for an alpha?

Starting point is 00:20:06 Well, if you get past the draft and you didn't draft that guy at 13. he won or move up in the first round to draft him, then I think the Patriots would be desperate for that alpha receiver. Eagles would know that. That would hurt the Patriots leverage. What happens again? What happens at the draft? What happens with Philly?

Starting point is 00:20:22 What happens with the Patriots? Jalen hurts. I think you can look at and say, well, he hurts Philly's leverage because of that relationship. So there's all sorts of different possibilities hurting leverage on each side. So I think each side wants this move to happen. And each side knows the other wants it to happen. Let's not forget that A.J. Brown reportedly has a list of teams which matters,

Starting point is 00:20:53 the drama, the contract situation. So, you know, a first round pick in 2027 is too rich for my blood. I've said that. I said that a few weeks ago. Now, the conditions, if you put conditions on the pick, whether it's a team condition, like make the playoffs or whatever, or it's statistical conditions. Like if A.J. Brown gets 1,500 yards in 2026, then it's a first in 2027.

Starting point is 00:21:18 The conditions could and likely would matter to me. But I'd have to see what those conditions are and, you know, how it kind of protects the first round pick for the Pats. If I'm the Patriots, I am starting with a second and a fourth in 2027. And I'd also throw out there, you know, number 31 in this draft and a 2027 third round pick. I think that's where I would start if I were the Patriots. That's the deal I would, I would be okay making a second and fourth in 2027 or this year's first in a third round pick next year. I think that would be pretty good value. I think those would, you know, both make some

Starting point is 00:21:58 sense. All right. Coming up, the 2028 draft could have an impact on acquiring Drake Man Alpha. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. NBA playoffs are here where every possession matters, every matchup is magnified, and every game can swing a series. And right now, Fandall is giving new customers a great way to get in on the action. Here's what I like about it. You can bet just $5 and get $250 in bonus bets if your first bet wins. I'll say it again. You can bet just $5 and get $250 in bonus bets if your first bet win.

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Starting point is 00:23:24 We appreciate every single one of you. All right. We got three more questions. Let's go to Miramusing. Saw mention of a 2028 first for A.J. Brown. Does a full draft in 26 and 27 plus Brown give you enough confidence that the 2028 first would be late enough to make it worth it? The 2028 first round pick is fascinating to me. Of course there are lots of unknowns, right?

Starting point is 00:23:50 Like what is the draft depth in 2028? What positions are deep? What positions are not deep? If you're going forward to 2028, what types of injuries do the Patriots have to deal with from now until 2028? So, you know, the further out these picks are the more unpredictable it gets, the more unknown. And, you know, for the NFL to me, like the NFL is mostly a year-to-year proposition for most teams.

Starting point is 00:24:20 So you could be great one year, not so great the next year. We saw that with the Washington commanders from 24 to 25. But generally speaking, yes, I mean, I would gamble that the 2028 pick in the first round is going to be later. I would say that it feels, I would feel pretty confident that it would be in the second. half of that first round. Now, why would I feel confident, even though it's incredibly unpredictable? You'd be talking about Drake May's, you know, what, fifth season? So, you know, he's somebody that has gone through it. He's played in 24, 25, 26, 27. So, you know, he's somebody at that point who would have played, you know, four years. The 2027 season is his

Starting point is 00:25:07 fourth year and going into his fifth season, you feel like you might need a little bit less because he should be much better. And I think because of his growth, you could feel pretty good about 2027 being a good season. I also think you look at the head coach, you know, Mike Vrable's culture, fully set, fully locked in. And for this regime, as you had mentioned, Mir musings, you know, you would have full draft classes in 26 and 27. You also have the full draft class from 2025. So at that point, you have three complete and full drafts.

Starting point is 00:25:47 And if this regime is doing their job well, that means the team in 2027 should be, you know, rather 2028 should be great. In 2027, I feel like, you know, having the picks in 25 and 26, two full drafts, you know, that should make you feel pretty good about your team in 2027. And then you look at, you know, the 2027 draft should make you feel pretty good about, you know, how you feel moving forward. So, yes, having full draft classes in 25, 26, 27, having that season in 27, which I think would be good after those three draft classes, Mays growth, yada, yada, the frayble culture stuff.

Starting point is 00:26:32 Yeah. Yeah. know I got a little jumbled there for a minute, but you get the point. You would have the 25, 26, and 27 draft classes behind you. You would have Drake May developing at quarterback, which means, you know, you should feel really good about the 2027 season. Again, given health and all the other stuff we talked about, you also have, you know, almost two full years to plan for the lack of a first round pick in 2028, right?

Starting point is 00:26:58 Like if you make that trade and you're trading that first round pick in 2028, well, you have you have, you know, the next couple of years to map out a plan to help you survive losing that pick in 2028. But future picks are always risky. First round pick options. You know, if I looked at it and I'm trying to trade for AJ Brown, I would say I would first rather give up this year's draft pick because I know where it is and it's at near the bottom of the round.

Starting point is 00:27:30 I would then say I would pick the 28 first round pick before I picked the 2027 first round pick because we know the 2027 class is supposed to be loaded. And again, conditions play a role. Let's go to Brady Boy with a bunch of numbers. And again, sorry if it got all confusing. I got a little confused about the draft stuff. But I think you get the point.

Starting point is 00:27:52 You get the gist in that last question. It's yes. With full draft class of 26, 27 to go along with what you did in 2025. May's growth, I'd feel pretty good about that pick being later in the first round, at least in the second half. All right, Brady Boy, do you think Kashon Booty not being at voluntary camp means he knows he's been traded or he's just upset about speculation? Well, look, over 60 players were at the voluntary program. So I don't think it's a great quote unquote look given Monday's report. Do I think the two tie together?

Starting point is 00:28:24 Maybe. You know, maybe Booty's frustrated and he says I'm not going to go, but it's voluntary. It is voluntary. It is a negotiated right by the players, so you don't have to be there. But I would think if Bouti felt confident about his role, if he was going to take the next step with the team, he'd likely be there.

Starting point is 00:28:43 But we also don't know if there's something personal, right? And Mike Vrable said on Tuesday that he had a conversation with Bouti. They knew he was not going to be there. I don't think Mike Vrable brought up anything personal like a birthday or an anniversary. But ultimately, I don't think it matters. You know, booty, I think, is going to get dealt. And it's more about the numbers game in the wide receiver room. It's also about his contract coming up.

Starting point is 00:29:05 And, you know, do you want to pay him 12 to 15 million a year? If you're going to bring in AJ Brown, you got Romeo Dobbs, no. So, you know, look, weeks before, you know, weeks before this voluntary program in the beach picture came out, I was saying trading booty makes sense, especially if A.J. Brown has added. Hayden, regarding booty. Being traded, what do you think is the most likely scenario? A deal with the Eagles or to a separate team? Three weeks ago, three weeks ago, I would have said,

Starting point is 00:29:37 Kishan Booty as part of a trade to the Eagles makes a lot of sense. Now, not so much because Philadelphia has Devante Smith, Hollywood Brown, Dontavian Wicks, and Elijah Moore. I also think they're going to draft the receiver coming up this week. And to me, DeTi Ann Tavian Wix replaces the Kishon Booty idea. Now that Don Tavian Wix is in Philly, I think he's going to fill that role that Kishan Booty would have filled with those other receivers in the room. And you look at Wix, you know, the age and production, very similar to Booty as we discussed. The fact that he's getting a $12.5 million extension for 2027, I don't think Philadelphia is going to pay both Wix and Booty, you know, 12 to 15 million.

Starting point is 00:30:22 I just, I don't think they would do that. I don't think the Kishan booty stuff comes out if the Philadelphia framework was quote unquote settled or even hypothetical. If the Patriots knew the Eagles are interested in booty as part of the deal, I don't think this stuff leaks out. So my expectation is booty is dealt this week. The Patriots pick a wide receiver somewhere in the middle rounds and they eventually add AJ Brown sometime in June.

Starting point is 00:30:49 All right. That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen for being an Every Dare. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio. Don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Hit that like button and subscribe. And if you never miss an episode, check out the Everydayer Club. Head to Lockdown Patriots.com or check the link and the show notes to learn even more. Have a great day and we will see you next time.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - RED ALERT: Patriots Must Adjust If Offensive Tackles Disappear Early | Mailbag

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