Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Red Line: New England Patriots Must Resist Overpaying for A.J. Brown

Starting point is 00:00:00 I want A.J. Brown as bad as anyone, but the Pats must show some level of constraint and draw the line on price. This is Locked-on Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots. Your daily New England Patriots podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host, Nick Cattles. On today's episode, a profile on one of the newest paths that should have every fan excited. for the future. In the second segment, ESPN's ranking of where the Pat's stand might actually surprise you. But first, how much is too much to give up for AJ Brown? Today's episode is brought

Starting point is 00:00:49 you by Game Time. Download the GameTime at Create an account and use code locked on for $20 off your first purchase. The Patriots cannot. They cannot lose their collective minds in trading for A.J. Brown. In the price, it could get steep. Adam Schaefter this week on the Pat McAfee show said he believes it's likely going to cost a 2028 first round pick. Jeff McLean in Philadelphia spoke about the price on his podcast this week. And Thomas Peterson from the Bleacher Report posted, according to Jeff McLean, the expected return for A.J. Brown is a first and second or third round. round pick. So a first and a second or third round pick. Teams will want the first to be in 28, which could, which could drive the additional compensation to be a second in 2027. So Jeff

Starting point is 00:01:51 McLean says there is the possibility. There is a hypothetical scenario that can play out where the Patriots give up their first round pick in 2028 and their second round pick in 27 to bring in A.J. Brown. Let me start with the idea that giving up a 2028 first and a second round pick in 2027 is too much. That is too much to give up. And I would certainly not be comfortable giving up a first and a second in the same draft for A.J. Brown. So even if it's a first in 2028 and a second in 2028, I'm not in love with that. I'm not in love with that. That's too much to me. A 2028 first and a 2027 second is also too much for me.

Starting point is 00:02:42 The Philadelphia Eagles in 2022, and the last time I checked, we are currently living in 2026. In 2022, Philadelphia gave up the 18th pick in the draft and a compensatory third round pick, which was 101 overall. If I'm looking at that deal, I'm saying, okay, four years later, four years later, who is bidding for A.J. Brown's services, aside from the Patriots, there have literally been zero teams over the past several weeks that have been connected to Brown. Now, yeah, we could talk about if this happens, if that happens.

Starting point is 00:03:20 In the present, right now, right now, there is no other team that is reportedly speaking with the Philadelphia Eagles to bring in A.J. Brown. So you're bidding against yourself. Why am I going to give up a first and a second when I'm bidding against myself? It doesn't make any sense. We've heard about the knees. We've read about the knees. And I also think this is something that we should not overlook. I do believe that A.J. Brown is going to want a new contract.

Starting point is 00:03:56 When you look at A.J. Brown's deal, it kind of lends itself for some kind of restruct. structuring moving forward. AJ Brown right now when you look at it, 2026 could be his last season on his current deal because there is a potential out in the contract after this season. And usually when there isn't out, especially when the guy, the cap hit is 22.7 and 2027. The cap hit is 27.6 in 2028.

Starting point is 00:04:26 The cap hit is 29.3 million in 2020. Those are age 30, 31, and 32 seasons for. AJ Brown. Usually when you see that type of a contract, there's going to be a restructuring so you don't have to worry about negotiating the deal next offseason. Usually. Now, maybe that doesn't happen this time around. Maybe AJ Brown says, you know what? I know I'm going into technically the final year of this contract. I'm completely comfortable going into the final year because I think Drake May is better than Jalen Hertz, et cetera, et cetera. But if you're the Patriots, I'm sure you're asking about that, back channeling.

Starting point is 00:05:02 is a new deal going to have to happen. But a first and second round pick to me is too much. It's too pricey. Now, if you want to have a conversation about giving up the 2028 first round pick, I'm there. I'm okay with that. I'm okay with that because inside the NFL, it is known that when you're trading a future pick, that pick is docked some value. You know, Greg Bedard has talked about this.

Starting point is 00:05:29 Albert Breer has talked about this. Others have talked about this. If you're going to trade a 2028 first round pick, the NFL values that as a 2027 second round pick. So giving up, let's say, for instance, a first round pick in 28 and a third round pick or fourth round pick in 2027, that's really giving up a second round pick in 2027.

Starting point is 00:06:00 and giving up, you know, the third or fourth round pick in 2027. You're just kind of splitting the years. You're splitting the difference. So if you're going to trade that 2028 first, Philadelphia is looking at that as a 2027 second. So you got to keep that in mind. I'm also okay with giving up the 2028 first because of how much confidence I have in this team and in this staff.

Starting point is 00:06:27 Now, if something else comes out regarding Mike Vrable, that could be an entirely different set of circumstances. But you can only make the deal with the knowledge and details that you have in that moment. And right now, I'm confident if you're telling me Mike Vrable is running this program for the next several years and you've got this front office and you've got most of this coaching staff, I feel like with this staff, with this head coach, having another. full draft in 2027 with plenty of picks, by the way, because if you are going to only trade a 2028 first, fantastic. If you have to trade a 2028 first and 27, let's say, third round pick, even if you have to do that, going into, and I would want a pick swap if I'm giving up a third, but let's just say you give up a third out of next year's draft in this trade, you still have a first round pick, second round pick, fourth round pick, two fifths, and four sixths. You have plenty of

Starting point is 00:07:27 picks to maneuver. You still have Kishon booty that you could possibly trade. So there's a lot of ammunition for next year's draft. So another full draft or close to full draft in 2027 with the maturation of the 2025 and 2026 draft classes, I feel like you're going to be in a good spot for 2028. Drake May would have completed his, what, four years, right? 24, 25, 26, 27, by the end of 27. It will be his fourth year in the league being finished up. And I would have to look at Drake May's season last year.

Starting point is 00:08:06 And I would have to believe if on the Patriots, Drake May is going to be a top five to eight quarterback moving forward. If he is healthy, he should be a top five to eight guy and maybe top three guy if he truly hits that ceiling. So I'm willing to bet. Like if you've got Drake May as a top five, five to eight quarterback and he's healthy for 2027 to go along with everything else I just said, I'd be willing to bet if I were the Patriots that I am a legitimate contender again,

Starting point is 00:08:39 still whatever happens this year, whatever happens. You know, you look at 27 and you say, I feel like that year we're going to be a contender with those draft classes and the quarterback and the system and the staff, the addition of A.J. Brown, who I think still has two or three good years left. I would bet. I would make that bet if I were the Patriots, that you're a contender in 27, which means that pick in 2028 is going to be towards the tail end of the round. I'd be willing to make that bet. And I'd also say that acquiring A.J. Brown undoubtedly helps your quarterback be that type of quarterback. Bringing in A.J. Brown helps you become, you know,

Starting point is 00:09:22 I don't want to say more of a legitimate contender because you went to the Super Bowl last year. but bringing in AJ Brown makes you feel like you're going to be near that or at that level of play over the next couple of years, as long as you do other things right. Now, some will say, Nick, Nick, what if May or someone important gets injured? That's always the risk with traits. You can't predict, you know, injuries. You can't break out the crystal ball and say, oh, well, Drake May might have this happen. to him in 2027, you can't do that. You can only make the trade with the information you have at your fingertips at that time. And right now, Drake May is a perfectly healthy starting quarterback.

Starting point is 00:10:11 If you were worried about injuries and all that stuff, you'd never make a trade because that could be the argument every single time. Well, why would you trade for that guy? Because that guy could get hurt. You could play that game every single time that is inherently baked in the cake. So I'm okay giving up a 2028 first round pick. I am not okay giving up that 2028 first round pick if I also have to give up a second round pick in either 27 or 28. I think that would be too pricey. Coming up, the Pats actually get some respect. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network.

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Starting point is 00:12:30 We'll go to lockdown patriots.com. Also, if you're watching us on YouTube, I say this a couple times a show because it really, really helps us. Don't forget to click that thumbs up. Give us a like. Helps us with the algorithm. We continue to build out this community. The next goal, 10,000 subs. Don't forget to like.

Starting point is 00:12:48 Don't forget to comment. Where would you draw the line? are the Patriots on an AJ Brown trade and don't forget to subscribe. More than 80 writers, editors in TV personalities at ESPN ranked NFL teams. And in this ranking from 1-232, your New England Patriots land at number six. Number six. And I think that's a very fair ranking. I would have the Patriots right around that mark, six, seven, eight, somewhere in that region. And I think whenever ESPN does something logically ranking a local team, you should be happy with that. And to me, this is a logical place for the PACs.

Starting point is 00:13:37 Now let's look at, you know, the AFC and how all this broke down. The Patriots are actually ranked as the third best team in the AFC. ESPN has Denver and Buffalo ranked ahead of the Patriots. Now, I think there could be an argument against Buffalo. We all know the Patriots won the division last year. And I don't think Buffalo had a great offseason. They have a rookie head coach. The Patriots could easily, could easily be seen as the slightly better or better football team.

Starting point is 00:14:12 So again, I wouldn't argue with you if you had the Patriots at four or five and the bills at six. I wouldn't argue with that. I think once you get past the top three or four teams, there's a clump of teams, five, six, seven teams that you could put at any spot among those next, you know, five, six, seven spots. But ESPN has Denver ahead of the Patriots and Buffalo ahead of the Patriots. And of course, yes, the Patriots beat Denver in the AFC championship game, but Denver did not have their starting quarterback.

Starting point is 00:14:43 And Denver was the one seat in the AFC. And I think Denver's had a pretty good offseason bringing in Jalen Waddle, some other things they've done. So that does make some sense to me. Denver's roster is really strong, really strong. The bills are fascinating. I think they're less strong. They need DJ more to hit as their number one wide receiver.

Starting point is 00:15:04 They don't really have a guy on the outside who can go up and get it. Maybe Keon Coleman proves himself this year, but we have not seen that at the NFL level. Linebacker without Matt Milano and his presence, that's an interesting loss for that defense. maybe he eventually comes back. He's still a free agent. I do think that, you know, the bills are banking a lot on Bradley Chubb.

Starting point is 00:15:29 So, you know, DJ Moore, Bradley Chub, C.J. Gardner Johnson, some of these veterans that they're putting their money on, they got to hope those guys play not just well, but really well. But the bills, they did go out. They got Bradley Chubb. They drafted T.J. Parker. We spent enough time on T.J. Parker leading into the draft. I wouldn't have minded the Patriots drafting T.J. Parker if they drafted an edge and missed out on Caleb Lomu or any of those other seven tackles. Jim Leonard is the new defensive coordinator in Buffalo, but you're ultimately betting on Josh Allen. That's what you're doing. ESPN, they're betting that Josh Allen will be better than Drake May. And you could certainly understand that given the history. Now, again, I think it's close. I think it's a best. battle, but I can understand the Patriots being at six and I can understand Buffalo being, I think they were four or five on this list.

Starting point is 00:16:27 I can understand that. Neck and neck, I think it's pretty fair. It's pretty, you're splitting hairs. I also think ESPN putting the Patriots at six on this list tells you about the reputation of Mike Vrable as a head coach. I think it tells you that there are a lot of people. in football, no matter what's going on away from the field recently. A lot of people look at Mike Vrable and they say he's one of the best head coaches in football

Starting point is 00:16:57 and I would agree with that. When the Patriots hired Mike Vrable, I had said he is to me easily a top 10 head coach in the league. Some people disagreed to it. I don't know if he's top 10. I was very confident that Vrable is a top 10 head coach. And he proved that last year. So this is the reputation of your head coach.

Starting point is 00:17:17 This is the growing reputation of your head coach. This is the growing reputation of your. quarterback. People see the runner up to the MVP. Many think Drake May should have been the MVP. I'm one of those people. But this is the growing reputation of your quarterback. And it's also a respect for the offseason that the Patriots put together. When you combine the free agency and the draft, I think a lot of people would say the Patriots had a very good offseason. It might not be an A plus plus, but I would have a difficult time grading this off season, anything less than a B plus or so. They are a better football team.

Starting point is 00:17:55 We talked about it about how they, you know, they've improved the roster. So I think this is respect for the quarterback, respect for the head coach, respect for the offseason that you've had. The roster is better with the potential to be even better by adding the guy we talked about last segment, A.J. Brown. You add A.J. Brown to this roster, it's even better. And I don't know, you know, I don't think it's far-fetched to say that if A.J. Brown was on the roster when this ranking happened, that the Patriots might have been higher on this list. And if they land A.J. Brown, I would argue that they would leapfrog the Buffalo Bills.

Starting point is 00:18:41 But we're not there yet. The AFC, by the way, pretty weak. when you look overall. I mean, four of the top 10 teams in this ranking, two of those four teams are from the AFC East, obviously Buffalo and New England, which is fascinating. Right now, if you're like handicapping this race, you would say one wins the division.

Starting point is 00:19:05 The other one is probably, you know, the top wild card. And the Patriots are six. You have to go down to number 10 for the next AFC team, and that would be the Baltimore Ravens. So I think it's a pretty fair ranking. It surprised me that they were high, like at number six, that they were that high because it's from ESPN. And I think, you know, people look at the schedule.

Starting point is 00:19:33 We've heard all the national stuff. But give ESPN credit those 80 writers, editors, and TV personalities. Give them credit. They weren't swayed that much by, you know, the schedule last year and how tough the schedule on paper is this season. also thought it was intriguing that Mike Reese, you know, along with the ranking, Mike Reese wrote that the most improved position is fullback.

Starting point is 00:19:59 And, you know, it's a huge addition. Reggie Gilliam is a huge addition. And I expect this run game to be better because of Reggie Gilliam, because of Julian Hill. It's going to force the defense into certain personnel packages. You dictate more of what the defense is going to do if you have a legitimate fullback. All right, lots of fascinating details about one of the top Pat's rookies,

Starting point is 00:20:23 unearthed in a new story from Mass Live. That's next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. We can stream anything. Order food in minutes. Do everything from our phones and somehow buying tickets to live events still feels way harder than it should be.

Starting point is 00:20:44 Long lines, confusing checkout, prices jumping at that last second. It shouldn't be that. complicated. That's why there is game time. It gives fans the advantage and makes getting tickets fast and simple. Looking at tickets for an upcoming game, it takes minutes to find great options. You see the full price up front. No surprise fees at checkout. The seat views, they're huge. You can check your exact view before you buy. Take the guesswork out of buying tickets to every type of event with game time. Comedy, sports, whatever. Download the game time app, create an account, and use code lockdown for $20 off your first purchase terms apply again create an account in redeem code L-O-C-K-E-D-O-N for $20 off download the game time app today Caleb Lomu certainly has some questions heading into the next level of football but a new profile reveals why Lomu could absolutely be the right tackle of the future thanks for

Starting point is 00:21:50 checking out the Lockdown Podcast Network. Now the number one sports podcast network. Don't forget to like us to comment and to subscribe if you're watching on YouTube. The 2026 draft is mostly a three-player draft. I said that earlier this week. When it comes down to it, you're looking at Caleb Lomu, Gabe Acis, and Eli Rairdon. If Karan Prunty or any of these sixth or seventh round picks or UDFA's workout, fantastic. Great news.

Starting point is 00:22:19 But as we know, very deep. difficult to believe that, you know, more than one of those guys is going to actually work out long term. So when we go back, a few years from now, when we go back and look at this 2026 draft, it's going to boil down to those three guys. And with Caleb Lomu, the question is, was it a desperation move by the Patriots because he was the seventh offensive tackle out of seven that was still on the board? Or was it a real belief in Caleb Lomu's ability? Now, I think it's the latter, not the former, because I do not think the Patriots are making the type of move that they made giving up a fourth round pick. I don't think they make that move if they don't universally

Starting point is 00:23:01 believe in Caleb Lomu. There's lots of intrigue with Lomu because of his potential. And Mark Daniels at Mass Live wrote a really good profile on Lomu. This was in Thursday's edition. Lomu clearly, he is a player who got started pretty late. He was not a peewee offensive lineman. He was not one of those guys and one of those kids that was, you know, nine, ten years old saying, I can't wait to go out there and, you know, beat up a defensive lineman and get involved in the run game. Really wasn't Caleb Lomu's focus.

Starting point is 00:23:39 To Mark Daniels, just six years ago, Lomu's big football aspiration was simple. He wanted to play defensive end for Highland High School next to his friend and neighbor. The sophomore out of Gilbert, Arizona, admitted he did not take the sport seriously. Highland's offensive line coach Bill Critchfield said, quote, he didn't want to play offensive line. I said, look, if you play offensive line for me, then I will let you play defensive end. He thought offensive line was stupid and he wanted to get his name in the paper, unquote.

Starting point is 00:24:11 Daniels writes the following summer, everything changed. So let's put this in perspective. Again, this was not a young kid who wanted to play football right out the gates. He wasn't wanting to be that next best offensive tackle or guard or center when he was 10 or 11 years old. This was somebody who wasn't in love with the idea of playing offensive line at first. But now we fast forward to the summer of 2021. because in the summer of 2021, that's when Caleb Lomu really started to take football seriously.

Starting point is 00:24:49 And this is kind of similar to Maxi Hennichor because Maxi Hennichor did not start playing football until the same summer, summer of 2021. So Caleb Lomu was slightly ahead of Maxa Hennichor, but not by much. I mean, Lomu had played the game, but he just wasn't in love with the idea. And then by the summer of 2021,

Starting point is 00:25:09 when Caleb Lomu does get that interest, that's the same time Max Ahenachor is getting going with his football journey. So when Lomu started taking it seriously, the game of football started to take Caleb Lomu seriously. Daniels writes on the summer of 21, the taller than average sophomore went to camps around Arizona. All of a sudden, Lomu was competing with upperclassmen with Division I scholarships.

Starting point is 00:25:37 He wasn't overmatched. He showed an impressive display of raw athleticism. That summer, he proved to himself that he was more than good enough. When his junior year started, Lomu arrived at Highland with newfound intensity and determination. His high school head coach Brock Farrell said, quote, once he decided that and believed that he actually could, he took everything seriously and really kicked it into gear and then brought others along with him. True leader, teaching young kids how to do things correctly,

Starting point is 00:26:07 bringing people along. It kicked him into gear, unquote. So this is a rapid progression from Caleb Lomo. He gets to Utah eventually. He's not the guy as a red shirt. They're not paying attention to him because he's a red shirt. But Utah's offensive line coach, Jim Harding, he's focusing on the starters and the active guys.

Starting point is 00:26:28 But Harding ends up giving Caleb Lomu a list of things to work on heading into his college, you know, his first college season as an actual college football player. And Harding says, quote, every kind of bar or challenge that I put in front of him that spring, he met and was ready for the next step. This is as a red shirt freshman. He's going into it. Harding continued when I finally got my opportunity to really focus on working and developing him just the way he approached anything I asked him to do that spring. I thought this kid had a real chance to be special, unquote. Now, by the time you get to 2024, Daniel's rights, Lomo was Utah's starting left tackle. And eventually he'd be.

Starting point is 00:27:07 becomes a freshman, all-American. So red shirt, freshman, all-American. This is in the 2024 season. Don't forget, he started taking football seriously in the summer of 2021. This is a huge, a huge leap forward for a guy so young because he started to take things seriously. So he takes things seriously in the summer of 2021. By 2024, he's a freshman All-American at a Division I school.

Starting point is 00:27:37 And last year, in 2025, he does not allow a single sack the entire season. And this is obviously a quick progression. It's a quick progression on the field. And when you add that quick progression that you saw to Caleb Lomu's athletic profile and work ethic, that's why the Patriots coaching staff is excited to have this guy on the roster. Mark Daniels wrote on Lomu's work ethic, Terry Fair, who also coaches the offensive line, has been at Highland for 35 years. Fair saw that Lomu was different.

Starting point is 00:28:16 The teenager took advice from his coaches to heart. As an underclassman, he'd practice his offensive line stance in his bedroom at night before going to sleep. And that's a through line with Mike Rable's Patriots. Since last year's offseason, right? They love guys who work. You've got to have talent. You've got to have athleticism and all that. You've got to have football IQ.

Starting point is 00:28:39 But they love guys who work their tail off. We discussed Gabe Accus on the show this week. Gabe Accus's work ethic through the roof. Brett Beelma saying he's in the building. He's focused on pass rush for 20 hours out of the day. Doesn't say much about the schoolwork, but I digress. Hard worker. And that's what Terry Fair.

Starting point is 00:29:02 who has been coaching the high school level for 35 years, that's what he saw with Caleb Lomu. And regarding the athleticism, Mark Daniels writes, when the team practiced, Utah practiced, Lomu did things that made his coaches shake their heads. Back to the high school coach, Terry Faire, he said, quote, he's just a phenomenal athlete.

Starting point is 00:29:25 I don't know if the Patriots coaching staff does any razzle-dazzle stuff, but you're going to see how athletic he is. He can throw the ball 70 yards downfield on a dime. He is that athletic. So that's the bet by the Patriots, and that's why they move up. This is a young man who started taking the game seriously in the summer of 2021. You jump three years later or so. He's a freshman All-American, then doesn't allow a sack last year,

Starting point is 00:29:57 has the athletic profile, the work ethic, the obvious natural talent is. there. And if you're the Patriots, you make that bet and you say, if we can just get this young man to add some quote unquote finish to his game, we could have something really, really good here. We'll see. We'll see how it unfolds because sometimes, guys, they just don't work out. They don't figure out the finish. They don't fulfill that potential. But when you read this profile, and I would read the whole thing in its entirety, I would suggest that to all of you. Mark Daniels does a great job. When you read this profile, you get it. And I certainly get it.

Starting point is 00:30:34 That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen for being an everydayer. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick Seed Radio. Don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Hit that like button and subscribe. And if you never miss an episode, the Everydayer Club is built for you. Get Lockdown Patriots, ad free, plus members-only discord access and more. Head to Lockdownpatriots.com or check the link in the show notes to learn more.

Starting point is 00:30:59 Have a great weekend. and we will see you next time.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Red Line: New England Patriots Must Resist Overpaying for A.J. Brown

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