Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Respect: Patriots and Drake Maye Defend Turf – Can Bills Overtake Gillette?
Episode Date: December 11, 2025Buffalo Bills aim to keep their AFC East reign alive as Josh Allen, fresh off an AFC Offensive Player of the Week performance, leads the charge against Drake Maye and a surging New England Patriots sq...uad in Foxborough. With the division title on the line, the showdown raises the stakes for both teams—can New England prove their Week 5 victory wasn’t a fluke, or will Buffalo’s improved run defense and opportunistic playmakers clinch a vital win?Nick Cattles and Joe Marino break down key matchups, including James Cook versus the Patriots’ front, Christian Barmore’s interior battle, and the importance of third down and red zone efficiency. The conversation spotlights Mike Vrabel’s bold messaging, adjustments coming off the bye, and the chess match between talents like Christian Benford and Stefon Diggs. Don’t miss analysis of playoff implications, breakout stars, and strategies both teams will use to chase the AFC East crown.Follow & Subscribe on all Podcast platforms…🎧 https://link.chtbl.com/LOPatriots?sid=YouTubeLocked On NFL League-Wide: Every Team, Fantasy, Draft & More🎧 https://linktr.ee/LockedOnNFL#patriots #newenglandpatriotsEverydayer Club If you never miss an episode, it’s time to make it official. Join the Locked On Everydayer Club and get ad-free audio, access to our members-only Discord, and more — all built for our most loyal fans.Click here to learn more and join your team’s community: https://lockedonpodcasts.com/everydayerclub Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! Aura FramesFor a limited time, save on the perfect gift by visiting https://AuraFrames.com to get $35 off Aura’s best-selling Carver Mat frames - named #1 by Wirecutter - by using promo code LOCKEDON at checkout.FanDuelIf you want to be right in the middle of the action this season, visit FanDuel.com and place your NFL live bets all season long.PrizePicksDownload the PrizePicks app today and use code LOCKEDONNFL to get $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup.Click Here: https://prizepicks.onelink.me/LME0/LOCKEDONNFLGametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONNFL for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Download Gametime today. What time is it? Gametime.Mint MobileTurn your expensive wireless present into a huge wireless savings future by switching to Mint. Shop Mint Unlimited Plans at http://MINTMOBILE.com/LOCKEDONNFL.Disclaimer: Limited time offer. Upfront payment of: $45 for 3-mo., $90 for 6-mo., or $180 for 12-mo. plan required ($15/mo. equivalent). Taxes & fees Initial plan term only. Greater than 35GB may slow when network is busy. Capable device required. Availability, speed, & coverage varies. See mintmobile.com.ZocdocStop putting off your doctor’s appointments and get the care you need.Go to Zocdoc.com/lockedonnfl to find and instantly book a top-rated doctor today.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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The Pats have not won the AFCE since 2019, and the bills do not plan on making it easy on them to win it this Sunday.
This is a crossover edition of Lockdown Patriots and Lockdown Bills.
You are Locked on NFL crossover, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day.
What's happening? I'm your host, Nick Cattels of Lockdown Patriots, along with the host of Lockdown Bill's Joe Marino for the latest edition of our lockdown crossovers for the 2025 season. And of course, we are part of the lockdown podcast network. Now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. On today's crossover in the third segment, we'll each look at three keys that could decide the division on Sunday. Also, we'll break down the matchups that could help the bills reshape the recent conference.
playoff conversation. But first, there are so many stories. Hey, into Sunday with these two teams,
we try our best to pick the biggest from each side. Crossover Thursday is presented by prize
picks. Download the prize picks app today. Use code of lockdown NFL to get $50 in lineups
after you play your first $5 lineup. Joe, we got a lot to get to, my man. What's the biggest
storyline in Buffalo this week after the bills beat Joe Burrow in Cincinnati last weekend?
Yeah, I think it's about building off of that performance, one that you feel like can really galvanize a football team for a big stretch run that obviously has a lot at stake. Of course, this Sunday playing the Patriots. And we know what's at stake. The Patriots win this thing. They end the Bill's five-year reign on top of this division. And of course, as you mentioned, bills don't want that to happen. And maybe it's going to happen, Nick. But for the bills, just not Sunday, right? Not in Foxborough. Not like that. I think that's kind of.
of the emphasis, but obviously Josh Allen had a huge game against the Bengals as the
AFC offensive player of the week.
The defense certainly gave up some production against Cincinnati, but came away with
the big plays that are kind of the hallmark of this defense and have continuously showed up
for them.
And so how do you build off of that and go into New England and avoid what's at stake for
New England to happen?
And I think there's a lot for them to correct from the early.
season loss where they made a ton of mistakes.
Yeah. And obviously was a big
launch point, I think, for New England in their season.
And so it's about an opportunity, I think,
is the big word that I'm looking for here.
Yeah, the Christian Bedford pick six was bananas.
It was just a fantastic play by him.
I wonder, before I get into my thoughts about the biggest story for the Patriots
on their side, I would agree with you, obviously, the vibes, quote,
unquote, are much different if you lose the division inside the stadium and you're
watching it play out, that that would be.
something that I'm sure Buffalo does not want to go through.
I'm kind of interested to get your point of view and in Buffalo's point of view
about that game in week five.
Is it looked at as, hey, look, bills just didn't play well enough.
The Patriots are not necessarily as scary as some people are maybe making them out
to be, or do you think the bills, do you think fans, even yourself, do you look at the Patriots
and say, no, let's say legitimate team, the schedule stuff is the schedule stuff.
They're good enough to win again.
I think you could probably get a lot of different answers from quote-unquote bills people to that.
So I can only answer it for myself.
And I'll say that I look back at, is it week four, week five, whenever that was?
Week five.
And I just think about mistakes.
Three giveaways, they fumbled on their first two drives.
Yeah.
And they had crippling penalties as well, 11 penalties for 90 yards.
And I'm not saying that the bills are above that happening again, but those feel like very uncharacteristic things for the Buffalo bills.
And so I don't think they will put themselves in those positions again.
As far as my perception of the New England Patriots, Nick, I go back to our conversation back then.
I think Drake May is awesome.
I think Drake May is probably number two in the MVP conversation right now behind Matthew Stafford.
I think it's a four-person race between Stafford at number one, Drake May, who I think is comfortably number two.
I think Josh Allen has kind of entered the chat, Jordan Love,
in the conversation as well. And I think that's what's going to be sorted out over the last four
weeks of the season. I think the world of Drake May, and I know that Bill Znaffi doesn't want to hear
that, but I'm not going to pretend like he's not an awesome player. The only thing I don't like about
him is that he plays for the Patriots. The skill set is outstanding. The human being seems
awesome. The personality, the way he's endearing himself to the fan base and to his team is
incredible. And so I'm in on Drake May. I am not going to diminish the results of the
England Patriots. They're in contention for the number one seed for a reason. They keep stacking
wins. And while you can point to the schedule, and look, I think it's fair to say they have
taken advantage of the last play schedule. Right. But at the same time, when they've had opportunities
to blow it, they don't. And they've been there, right, against the Saints, against the Bengals.
Was it the Falcons game against the bills? They've had chances to blow it. And they don't. And that's
a sign of a good team. And so you're not going to catch me diminishing Drake May. You're not
going to catch me diminishing the New England Patriots. I think they're a really good operation.
And I, if I'm a Patriots fan, I've got to be really excited about where this thing's headed.
Yeah, I think that's a very fair assessment, Joe, from you. And I don't expect anything less.
I would also say, you know, your feelings towards Drake May, very similar to my feelings towards
Josh Allen. I wish he was not a Buffalo bill. But man, oh man, it's crazy to not respect that guy
and understand that he is one of the best doing it today. I asked you that question because I
I honestly think the story for me for this game for the Patriots is the opportunity to prove that week five was not a fluke, right? Buffalo, you know, some people might look at it and say Buffalo might have played with their food a little bit, especially early on in that game. You mentioned the three turnovers, the minus two and turnover differential in that game. One turnover was at the 50 yard line. Another turnover was that terrible pick and decision by Josh Allen at the New England 19 yard line. So you had chances to arguably score twice and you turned it over and that's not.
something that the Buffalo Bills do very often.
The Patriots, meanwhile, they've only forced 14 takeaways in their first 13 games.
So the idea of creating three turnovers is very, very unlikely to happen again.
And I've got to feel like the Patriots, they have a point to prove.
And I would imagine, yes, they beat them in week five.
But even Vegas is telling us, Buffalo is the favorite this weekend, at Gillette in Foxborough.
And the Patriots and Mike Vrable were asked about that during Wednesday's press conferences.
they are well aware of it.
So I just feel like the Patriots,
even though they won earlier in the year,
and even though it was on national television Sunday night football,
I still feel like they go into Sunday feeling like,
we're the underdogs.
And we need to prove that week five wasn't just, you know,
oh, a nice little fluky win.
No, we can go out there and beat Josh Allen
and the bills twice in the same season.
I bet Mike Brable wouldn't have it any other way.
When I saw those opening lines come out of Fandul
and I saw the bills minus one and a half,
I said, oh boy, Mike Brable's got to love this coming out of the buy,
obviously with what's at stake to be considered the underdogs in the football game
is pretty interesting to me and certainly something I'm sure that is going to rally
that Patriots team for an inspired effort for a game that already has a lot of
magnitude to it.
Yeah, and Mike Vrable's messaging has been clear.
It's been significant this week talking about the opportunity to win a championship this
weekend. He is not running away from the challenge. He is not running away from the
opportunity. He is making sure that his players are embracing the stakes on Sunday, which I find
to be the right message from the head coach yet again. Mike Vrable has consistently done that all
year long, and I feel like he's striking the right court again with these guys. And
Christian Gonzalez said in the locker room today that, you know, when Mike Vrable, the first meeting
they had, he walked in and said, we're going to win this division. So he might have been
talking differently in the public, but when he was talking to his team at the very beginning
of this process, he told them he believed that they can win this division. So if they go out
there on Sunday and they actually do that, week 15, I don't think anybody thought the Patriots
would be here. Week 15 with a chance to win the division. If they do that, it's even more
credibility and trust built within Mike Grable from his players. All right, the Pats need one of
their young blue chip players to step up this weekend. We'll discuss that in more marquee
matchups next. As we continue with this crossover episode of Lockdown Patriots and Lockdown Bills,
we are, of course, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.
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I, Joe Marino from Lockdown Bill's.
I'm, of course, Nick Cattels from Lockdown Patriots.
Let's talk marquee matchups, my friend.
What's your first marquee matchup, Joe?
Yeah, I'm thinking a lot about the Bill's rushing offense against the Patriots rushing defense
that has shown a little bit of vulnerability of late.
Now, I will say, if you go back to that earlier meeting, I thought the Patriots did the best
job of any team this year at defending the Bill's traditional run offense. Of course, Josh Allen
has some scrambles, but I'm talking about James Cook. Yeah. And I think the ability of Christian
Gonzalez and Carlton Davis to fit the run and play the run. They did a really good job,
how they slow play. And, you know, James Cook, kind of the hallmark of his game is cutback
runs and spill runs. And when you have corners like Davis and Gonzalez that are big, they're
physical, they're long, and they tackle, you know, it can take away some of that. And so I'm very
curious to see what the bills have cooked up in this type of game, where I think the rushing
offense is going to be really, really important. We mentioned some of the vulnerability that
the Patriots have had defending the run. Over the last four games, they have a lot of 69% success
rate on zone runs and six yards per carry. Those are both the highest marks in the NFL.
They also have the lowest stuff rate in the NFL over the last four games that they played.
I know that the buy week, but the last four games the Patriots have played.
So I think the bills have got to find ways to maybe take advantage of that. I know that,
no Milton Williams has kind of hurt the run defense a bit.
And so can the bills run the ball really well, which they typically do,
not necessarily in the Patriots game earlier this year,
but can they correct that this time around and get some production on the ground?
Look, nail on the head from you.
I mean, the Patriots run defense was the best in football.
I would argue through the first nine weeks of the season.
There's no doubt they have tailed off a little bit.
Injuries are a part of that.
Milton Williams, you mentioned, but also another guy is Kyrie's Tonga.
He's missed pretty much close to the last two games.
He got hurt very, very early on a few weeks ago, missed the next game, which was against the Giants.
So, you know, he gets hurt in that Sincey game.
He misses three and a half quarters of that game, then misses the Giants game.
And Kyrie's Tonga really has been their third best interior defensive lineman.
He has been arguably the best interior defensive lineman against the run.
So part of that is injury.
Kairis Tonga back at practice.
on Wednesday. He looked limited during Monday's bonus practice, quote unquote, after the by week.
Feels like Kyrie's Tonga probably is back this week. I'm not sure if he will play as much as he did before
the injury. We'll see Milton Williams, of course, he's on IR. He will not be back. That's a big reason
why I'm looking at Christian Barmore. And I think Christian Barmore against this interior
offensive line of the Buffalo Bills, I was watching the Bill's game. I actually watched the game
twice. I watched the game at my buddy's house over a couple
of beers on Sunday. Ah, the pleasure
of a bye week, Joe. And then
I actually followed that up on Monday
and watched the all 22 of the game.
And Connor McGovern was moving
people in the run game. And I think
his ability, Christian
Barmore has to win some of those matchups.
He's got to win against the interior offensive
line because if Christian Barmore is not going,
then this defensive
line's going to have some issues. Without Milton
Williams, with Christian Barmore
not making an impact, which he
needs to do and he has he has just not consistently over the past month or so they need the patriots
need more christian barmore impact plays without milton williams harold landry uh has been playing
hurt since the tennessee game he got rolled up on he has not been the same guy after the first
month of the season or so uh kaleb on chase on is going to shatter the most snaps he's
ever played in a season at the nfl level so i feel like he's getting a little bit tired
hopefully the bye week helped both Harold Landry and Kayla Mon Chase on,
but Christian Barmore cannot be quiet on Sunday.
Matchup number two for you, Joe.
Well, speaking of things that have been quiet,
it's the bill's pass rush.
It's been extremely quiet of late.
I mean, arguably over the last four weeks,
the worst of the NFL and whatever metric you want to point to,
there are like bottom two, three in the league pressure rates,
sack percentage, time to pressure.
It's not very good.
And if there's a wart left for Drake May,
the young 23-year-old quarterback that's making a case to be the NFL MVP this year,
it's that he does take sacks, right?
Yeah.
21 sacks, according to the fantasy points data suite that are charged to Drake May as being his fault.
That's six more than any other quarterback, and he's pressured 44% of dropbacks.
That's the highest pressure rate in the NFL.
Can the bills make this matter?
You know, their pass rush is ice cold.
Looks like they could get Joey Bosa back this week.
He missed last week with a hamstring.
he's been battling through a wrist injury.
They're going to need them.
They're going to need them in a big way because without them, boy, they just really
struggled to get any type of pressure.
Also, Drake made a phenomenal scrambler, second most scrambles so far this year,
fourth most scramble yards.
And when the bills play athletic quarterbacks, they didn't do this in the first
matchup, but they played this gauntlet of Baker, not big, yeah,
Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes.
And even in the playoffs at times, when they go against athletic quarterbacks,
they'll play a spy mirror player.
And rush three, but then they'll have a linebacker leveraged over top.
And that linebacker leveraged over top is a guy that's supposed to mirror and spy the
quarterback.
But it also gives the three that you rush complete freedom to rush however they want to.
You know, you talk about pass rush lanes and cage rushing and those types of things to keep
a quarterback in the pocket.
When you give those guys that freedom to just kind of go where they want to with the spy
player over top, I'm guessing the bills will kind of break that out in a high stakes game
against Drake May.
And they're going to need to.
They're going to got to figure out ways to get pressure on this quarterback because it is a pass rush that's been ice cold to Blake.
Yeah, I will say Drake May, as far as the sacks go, he's been sacked 40 times.
You mentioned the 21 on him.
There's no doubt that especially in the first half of the season, he was struggling with that.
He would bail when pressure was not there.
He would run into sacks, so to speak, from time to time.
It was an issue, and it was especially an issue during a stretch where, you know, he took four sacks against the Buffalo Bill.
was better against the Saints, but then against Tennessee, he had four sacks taken.
And then back-to-back weeks, he was sacked six times by the Browns and the Falcons.
But since then, I will tell you, Joe, he has done a much better job of handling the pocket,
pocket manipulation, pocket poise, the presence he has.
He's done a much, much better job.
The Giants, there was only one or two times where I thought that he might have bailed a little
bit early and given their pass rush and their talent on that defensive line.
I think that's a pretty good performance from him.
The weeks before that, you know, he had three straight weeks where he only took one sack.
And he's been much, much better.
You go back to that Falcons game where it was a little bit messy.
He's been much better in that category.
So I would hope that he continues to improve and not show himself to, you know, give up those one or two yards sacks.
A lot of these sacks, by the way, are one yard, two yards.
It's a very strange thing where you don't have a lot of eight yard, 10 yards sacks.
And a lot of those are on the quarterback.
Some of them are also on Trayvion Henderson, where he's been hot and cold and past protection.
And I look at the second marquee matchup, Joe, you're thinking somewhat what I'm thinking here.
And it's Jared Wilson.
Jared Wilson back at practice this week, had a high ankle sprain.
Of course, the Cincinnati game when Will Campbell goes out, Jared Wilson goes out,
the Patriots lose their left tackle and left guard in the same game.
Of course, Wilson did not play against the Giants.
but I will tell you that Vedarian Lowe
was pretty good all things considered
against Abdul Carter when he got into the game
after being suspended for the first quarter,
whatever happened there. And I
would also say Ben Brown, the backup left guard,
did pretty good. The offensive line had their best
game, I think, of the season against the New York
Giants defense, but Jared Wilson
is expected to be back. And I would think
he's going to start at left guard again.
And this Buffalo Bill's defensive line,
they're big. They get some big dudes. You know,
Desquan Jones, no joke. Deionne, Walker's no joke.
And I know Walker's been a little
little inconsistent, but I saw Dayquan Jones have a heck of a half against Cincinnati last
weekend. So with Jared Wilson returning, bigger interior defensive linemen sometimes can give him
fits. Same for Garrett Bradbury, who's not the biggest center in the world. So they've got to
make sure that they take care of the interior defensive line and not allow that pressure from the
inside to get to Drake May and allow Drake May some time to find some open receivers, which will lead
me to my third marquee matchup, but I'm not going to get there first. You're going to get there
first. Your third marquee matchup, Joe. I think it's about the bills and how they can incorporate
running backs and tight ends into their passing offense in week. I keep forgetting it's week
four or five. The earlier season matchup, week five, Dalton Kincaid had a heck of a game, six
catches on six targets for 108 yards. He's back in healthy. Dawson Knox had a huge game last week
against Cincinnati. The third tight end, Jackson Hawes caught a touchdown. They can get all three
of these guys going in meaningful ways, and they're going to need to, in addition to their running
backs, James Cook, Ty Johnson, Ray Davis, all guys that can catch the football. And look, I know that
this is probably more of a product of what New England has on the outside at Corner and Davis and
Gonzalez, but New England has given up the fourth most catches to running backs in the NFL and the
seventh most catches to tight ends. Again, probably more about their corners, but here's the reality.
The bills don't really have receiving talent that's going to be able to challenge those corners.
And so lean into what you have, which is backs and tight ends that can catch a football against a part of the Patriots where there's been some opportunities to get some production.
Yeah, you mentioned those corners.
I'm looking at the Bill's corners.
Christian Benford, you know, Patriots wide receivers versus cornerbacks that are not named Christian Benford.
I want to see if they can win those matchups.
If you can win consistently against Tradavius White and Maxwell Hairston, who I thought, you know, had some good reps last weekend, had some not so great reps last weekend.
Cam Lewis had a little bit of a tough time against Cincinnati.
So if you can find these matchups,
and Josh McDaniels is great at doing that,
you know, one of the matchups within the matchup is Stefan Diggs
and how the Patriots will utilize him after his big week and week five.
He's been mostly quiet for the last few weeks.
I don't think that's a Stefan Diggs issue.
I think that's more of how the Patriots run their offense.
But, you know, these cornerbacks, I think the Patriots,
if they can win, and they don't have to win,
all day long.
But if they can win some of those matchups,
now you talk about the tight ends and the running backs in the past game for the Patriots,
getting a little bit more space.
So it'll be interesting to see how the Buffalo Bills deploy Christian Benford.
I know they've been playing him more man coverage and looking at, you know,
the best receiver on the other side.
I wonder if that's going to be the case again on Sunday against Stefan Diggs.
But the Patriots have to win at least a few times at receiver and make the Buffalo
bills respect their passing game because that will open up a lot underneath.
their sake, hopefully open up the run game.
All right, coming up, our three keys to victory on today's crossover episode of
Lockdown Patriots and Lockdown Bills.
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All right, let's get right to it.
to victory. Joe Marino, Lockdown Bills, Nick Cattles, Lockdown Patriots with you.
Hopefully all of you have enjoyed this show as much as I have enjoyed this show.
Key number one to victory, Joe, for the Buffalo Bills.
Limit mistakes, right? I mean, three turnovers. Like I said, they fumbled on the first two drives.
Josh had that interception that put the Patriots in business, 11 penalties for 90 yards and
some backbreaking ones that took away some important plays that put the bills behind the sticks.
and it's a game that with all those mistakes, they lost by three.
And Drake May was unbelievable on that last drive.
I mean, the drive starter.
I don't know how he didn't go down.
I guess that's what it's like to play against Josh Allen, right?
Some of what happened there is like, boy, this is not that fun.
So I think number one is don't beat yourself.
And I think Patriots fans can appreciate that as a team that for years,
just watch other teams beat themselves right before their eyes.
And the Bills Camp fall victim of that this time around.
Yeah, I mean, I look at the Patriots.
It's key number one is run the football.
The Buffalo Bills, I don't think, are very good against the run.
That has been well documented.
I'll dive into that a little bit more in the deep dive preview on Friday's episode.
But keep away from Josh Allen, you know, keep his possessions low, attack that bill's weakness attack,
the linebackers, the front seven, and try to get your run game going.
It's been a problem.
I mean, I can't tell you, Joe, how many times I've mentioned this in these crossover episodes,
but it's been one of the things that the Patriots have not done,
well in a season that they have exceeded all expectations.
And that's run the ball consistently.
Even against the Giants on Monday night, you go back before the buy week.
In the first half, you got Ram Andre Stevenson and Trayvion Henderson averaging almost
six yards of carry.
They're moving the football.
And then about the third quarter and half of the fourth quarter, they can't do
anything in the run game.
They finally got it going in the final drive with Trayvion Henderson against the Giants.
But they have not consistently been able to run the football, even the Tampa Bay Buccaneers game
where the numbers were great, really came down to two awesome to the house runs from Trayvion
Henderson. Other than that, they couldn't really run the ball. So run the football. Prove as
the weather gets colder that you are in offense, that can run the football. Key number two for
the bills. If I could add one thing there on the situation with the bills run defense, because
I think metrically, it's been very, very poor. It has turned around significantly over the last
three weeks, and that coincides with Shaq Thompson, starting at middle linebacker over
at Terrell Bernard, who's been injured. Weeks 1 through 11, the bills were 31st in rush yards
per game, 31st in yards per carry, and 32nd and mistackles force per run. Over the last three
games, the bills are third fewest rush yards per game, fifth fewest yards per carry, and
seven fewest mistackles for run. And so I can't make any promises for what it's going to look
like on Sunday, but it has been a lot better story to tell of late. Number two for me is,
You got to win third downs on defense.
Whenever I watch the Patriots play, it's like, it's a running joke in my mind
where I think to myself, how's Drake May going to figure this third down out?
And every time it just happens.
It just happens over and over again.
The bills are 23rd and third down defense.
And the Patriots passing offense is number two in EPA per snap on third downs.
One of the most interesting metrics that blew my mind when I saw it this morning, courtesy of Kevin
Masari. The bills have the worst third down defense in the NFL at home at 51%.
They have the best third down defense in the NFL on the road at 26%. I don't know why that makes
zero sense to me, but it's true. And hopefully that really good road defense that's good on third
down shows up in Foxboro. But you got to be able to get off the field. And that's what it comes down to.
The bills collectively have had their issues getting off the field.
If you watch that Bengals game,
I think they converted their first eight or nine third downs,
and that's not going to be a winning recipe on Sunday.
So we've got to win third downs on defense.
Yeah, you and I are on the same page here when we talk about third down.
If I'm on the Patriots, it's get Buffalo off the field.
Buffalo, the fourth best third down offense in football.
And if they continue to move the chains and they continue to drive,
it's not going to be a good day at the office for the Patriots.
So they've got to get Josh Allen and company.
off the field on third down.
The Patriots, you know, you can look at certain defensive metrics.
You know, the one thing that has been consistent all year long
is they've been really good on third down.
The Patriots defense is the seventh best defense on third down.
And that's against good offenses.
That's against bad offenses.
They've just had a knack of stopping teams on third down.
So I do think third down for both teams is going to be absolutely gigantic in this football
game on Sunday.
Your final key, Joe Marino.
Yeah, it's red.
zone you know one of the things that you know i got to talk about it right the patriots are coming off
their by week right and so that's yourself scouting you're going to figure some stuff out i'm sure
the entire by week or that's probably a hyperbolic but a lot of the biweek was spent figuring out
how they could be a better red zone team defensively and offensively they entered the by 24th
in red zone offense 32nd in red zone defense the bills are ninth in red zone offense 20th and
red zone defense i'm expecting creativity i'm expecting new stuff and
you know, Josh McDaniels is a great offensive mind.
Mike Brable and company, great defensive minds.
I'm sure that they have been thinking about how they can become a better team in the red
zone and the wrinkles, if there's ever a time to break them out, it's with what's at stake
on Sunday.
So the bills have got to be disciplined in the red zone and be ready for some new layers to
to what New England has shown so far this year.
I laughed when you first mentioned it because it was my third key, the red zone.
Patriots have been abominable in the red zone.
Defensively, they've been atrocious, offensively.
defensively, especially leading into the buy, they have been horrific.
You go back to the Cincinnati game.
They had, I think, six snaps from the one yard line and could not get in the end zone.
The red zone offense has been declining over the past several weeks.
The point now, as you mentioned, it's somewhere in the mid-20s.
And the defense all year long, that has been a problem, their red zone defense.
They have to fix their red zone efficiency because I think that's one of the things.
And maybe the most critical thing that could get in the way of the Patriots,
making the playoff run that they hope that they can make.
It's doubt in the red area.
They've got to be much better.
All right, that wraps up this crossover edition of Lockdown Patriots and Lockdown
Bills.
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deep dive preview for a big game big game on sunday
