Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Revival: Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots | Battle for AFC Glory

Starting point is 00:00:00 10 years later, in the Mile High City, the Broncos and Patriots are fighting it out for a chance to go to Santa Clara and the Super Bowl. You are locked on NFL crossover. Part of the Locked on podcast network. Your team every day. It is crossover Thursday before the AFC championship game between the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots. And we are going to break down every aspect of this matchup. The biggest storylines player matchups, we got. got our eyes on keys to victory.

Starting point is 00:00:39 You know the drill here at crossover Thursday. My name is Sayre Bedinger from Lockdown. Broncos so excited to be here with Nick Cattels of Lockdown Patriots. And we are going to break down this matchup for you. Broncos fans, Patriots fans. We appreciate every single one of you so much for making our shows, your first listen of the day, every single day right here on the Lockdown Podcast Network,

Starting point is 00:01:01 the number one sports podcast network out there. And as always, crossover Thursday is brought to you. our friends at prize picks. Download the prize picks app today and use code locked on NFL to get $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup. Nick, I'm so excited to be breaking down an AFC championship with you, especially because man, two years ago, your guys are picking third overall in the draft. My guys just cut Russell Wilson, took on 90 million roughly in dead money. It's looking bleak for both franchises. And here we are. We put it in an

Starting point is 00:01:37 We paid our dues for the last couple of seasons to get to this point. And it's awesome that history is kind of repeating itself. Like I said in the intro to the show, man, 10 years later, the same storyline. Obviously, it's not Brady and Manning in this game, but the Broncos and the Patriots battling it out in the Mile High City for a chance to go to Levi's stadium and play for a Super Bowl title. Yeah, it's pretty crazy, right? I mean, the turnaround for both organizations, I thought Denver would be dead in the water for

Starting point is 00:02:05 three, four, five years after the Russell, Wilson debacle. And Sean Payne's done a great job. Turn that thing around. Obviously, the Patriots going through their issues two years in row in 23 and 24, back-to-back four-win seasons. And then Mike Vrable steps in and just changes the program. And all of a sudden within his first year, as we know,

Starting point is 00:02:23 a FC championship game. So it's a fascinating tale for both of these teams, how things have unfolded. But I do think that I don't want to say this matchup has an air of inevitability to it. But look, these have been the two best teams in the AFC through most of this season. They were battling for that number one seed. So it just feels right that you got the one two seed going against each other in the conference championship. But of course, as we all know, unfortunately, Denver won't have their starting quarterback to wage this battle on Sunday.

Starting point is 00:02:55 But it is interesting watching these two teams have those turnarounds. And what's really funny, I want to say stupid, because it kind of seems so inconsequential. at this point. But the difference between these two teams was their matchups against the Raiders, ultimately, which is crazy to think about considering where the Raiders are at at this point. But obviously that, you know, led to this game being played in Denver this weekend. And like you mentioned, no Bo Nix for this game. That's the number one storyline for the Denver Broncos. And we've seen Broncos country really rallying around another familiar face for so many Patriots fans out there, Jared Stidham, a guy who's drafted by the Patriots.

Starting point is 00:03:36 I don't know how you guys necessarily feel about this, but I think from the outside perspective looking in at one point, if even only for a breath of a moment, was considered potentially the heir apparent to Tom Brady. And certainly a favorite of Josh McDaniels, who followed he followed to the Las Vegas Raiders. And so Stidham's getting a huge opportunity. Everybody in Broncos country is changing their Twitter profile pictures

Starting point is 00:04:00 to this Jarrett Stiddlem meme, like rallying around him. I think that's going to be so fascinating. to see how he responds to the moment, how the rest of the Denver Broncos team responds to losing Bo Nix, because obviously that puts a whole different, this game is, it's the stakes are different. It feels like if,

Starting point is 00:04:20 I mean, obviously both teams trying to go to the Super Bowl yet, but I mean, it feels like it's shifted maybe the pressure over to the Patriots because the Broncos now don't have their quarterback anymore. It's, I don't know, that's kind of how I see it.

Starting point is 00:04:31 What is your take on that perspective from the Broncos side of things? Yeah, I mean, my buddy Greg Bedard, who writes about the Patriots in New England, mentioned that, like immediately following the game on Sunday, which was now the pressure has swung and it's a whole different world. I don't know if I completely buy that. Obviously, the team with the backup quarterback is not going to be favored, and they probably should not be favored.

Starting point is 00:04:53 That's rather obvious. I don't know if all the pressure has swung, no, because I still think the Broncos, you know, you look at them defensively, you look at their special teams. By the way, special teams coordinator, former head coach of the, the University of Rhode Island where I went to college. You know, so you look at defense, you look at special teams, you look at that offensive line.

Starting point is 00:05:12 That's really what the team is built in no disrespect to Bo Nix, but that is the heart of the football team, right? So I think you look at it and you probably feel the same way in an interesting way. You probably feel the same way about Jarrett Stiddem as Patriots fans feel about Drake May. And what I mean by that is the Broncos probably feel pretty confident that they can hang around in this game if Jared Stidham doesn't implode. If Jared Stidham doesn't turn the football over.

Starting point is 00:05:39 And that's my biggest storyline coming up on Sunday for the Patriots. I mean, it's low-hanging fruit, but it's just the reality of the situation. Can Drake May take care of the football? Six fumbles in the first two playoff games. He's lost three of those fumbles. Two last weekend. He's thrown two interceptions. Now, I kind of look at those interceptions, and they are what they are.

Starting point is 00:05:59 One was a batted ball straight up in the air. This one, this past weekend, was a Hail Mary. the end of the first half. So it's not like he's throwing it in harm's way. But still, the fumbles have to get figured out. He's got fumbleitis. So, you know, if you are the Patriots, you don't want to make it easier for Jared Stidham. You don't want to make it easier for Sean Payton as a play caller giving the Broncos short fields. You don't want to turn the football over, all of a sudden have a scoop and score. And now that changes the tenor of the game. And you just got to limit your mistake. So I think that truly is the most important.

Starting point is 00:06:34 part of this game for the Patriots is Drake May not shooting himself in the foot. And I think if that happens, I just have to imagine the vast majority of Patriots fans feel pretty good about their chances of moving on because of Denver's backup quarterback playing this game. I also probably feel like you and listeners of lockdown Patriots can resonate with this idea of people trying to discredit getting to this point because of who you've played. Yeah. And I just think that's one of the most annoying narratives. that gets thrown out there every single year. It's like, well, you had an easy strength of schedule.

Starting point is 00:07:08 Winning in the NFL is the hardest thing to do, no matter if you're going up against a team's backup, if you're, you know, if their key player is sitting out for a game, I mean, everybody's jobs are on the line. There's millions of dollars on the line for every individual player and coach out there. So there's always a lot at stake. I want to get your take on this, though. After watching the Patriots, not necessarily just roll through the regular season,

Starting point is 00:07:31 but in a way, I mean, they kind of felt like they were rolling quite a bit. Then you have to face off against arguably the two best defenses in the playoffs. I know Denver is now looming. Does that give you more confidence in this matchup going forward? We played maybe a relatively easier regular season schedule. But now, I mean, we beat back to back. The Chargers and Jesse Minter's defense. And then the Texans and Domeko Ryans, like, that is, you're not beating any slouch,

Starting point is 00:07:56 especially when you had to play in the elements last weekend. Yeah, I certainly feel more optimistic about Drake May's ability to go into Denver against the very good defense and do enough to win. I don't know if I'd sit there and say I'd be super optimistic or confident that they're just going to slay the Denver defense and it's like no big deal, easy, peasy, one, two, three, right? But I do think it gives you a little bit of confidence. You know, I looked at Drake May, when you look at the strength of schedule stuff, I just, that whole argument in the path, I had a whole rant on my, on my episode on Wednesday's episode about that, put a whole segment out there to just eviscerate this easy path stuff,

Starting point is 00:08:37 which I find to be ridiculous, just because I don't think anybody really cares about it. I don't think it's a genuine argument. I don't think two years from now anybody's going to bring back, oh, the Patriots regular season schedule. It's like, did you win the title? It's all that matters, right? But when you look at it, the context, right? Like, Drake May, yes, you played against a schedule that was soft defensively compared

Starting point is 00:08:58 to other schedules, right? But the thing about Drake May is, and I've argued this all year, you know, in tough situations, third down, fourth down, third and long, against the blitz, against being pressured, all these different analytics where no matter who you're playing defensively, it's much tougher to survive. And the fact that he's playing with who he's playing with, which is not the greatest receiving core ever. And the Patriots couldn't run the football for the first two and a half months of this season. So I think it misses out on a lot of the context, which isn't surprising because it's 2026. And I think context and nuance is mostly dead. It is. You know, we discover that all the time.

Starting point is 00:09:38 And I think that's the funny thing about this profession. But, man, what you just said, I mean, it just gets me more and more excited about this matchup, because I feel like this Broncos defense is going to be excited to rise to the occasion against, frankly, an MVP candidate, right? And Drake May, who was second team all pro this year behind Matthew Stafford. and has played phenomenal football. Now they get a chance to really protect their house with Bo Nix out for the rest of the postseason. And we're going to find out what are the best matchups in this game.

Starting point is 00:10:06 I want to definitely highlight the Broncos pass rush going up against that Patriots offensive line. Could be an absolutely huge monumental key in this game. We're going to talk about it coming up on today's crossover Thursday edition. Lockdown Broncos, Lockdown Patriots. Crossover Thursday is brought to you by Robin Hood. What if sports were traded like markets? Now you can put your sports IQ to work in real time with Robin Hood prediction markets. It's not you against the house.

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Starting point is 00:11:18 a registered futures commission merchant and swap firm. Crossover Thursday is also presented to you by GameTime. The NFL playoffs are obviously down to the final four, and there's nothing like being at the game. We all know especially like at mile high. The crowd noise, the energy, and cheering alongside other fans. Watching at home is great, but being in the stadium hits a little different,

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Starting point is 00:12:57 offensive line could end up being crucial in this matchup. And we'll break down so much more on today's episode of the show. But once again, Broncos fans, Patriots fans, we want to say thank you to all of you out there who are everydayers, everyday listeners of the show. If you haven't already done so, want to invite you also, check out the link in the show notes for the Every Day or All Access Club. You're going to get tons of bonus content, locked on merch discount and things that, man, not everybody who is an everydayer, you know, on YouTube or wherever they listen to

Starting point is 00:13:25 podcast, you're going to get so much more through being a member of the All Access clubs. We want to invite you to check that out and let us know what you think. We're excited to hear your feedback on that as well. Nick, I want to talk through some of the matchups for this game. Obviously, I've teased it. So we might as well start here, right? The Broncos defensive front against the Patriots offensive line.

Starting point is 00:13:46 This is obviously an area that is, it's a work in progress. Like you mentioned, the Patriots, they were, you know, top four worst records in the league over the last two seasons and they jumped all the way to the AFC championship game. I feel like that roster wasn't completely complete when Mike Vrable inherited it. And this is maybe the one area that the Broncos have a distinct advantage. Where have you seen the Patriots grow the most this season on the offensive front? And what's your take on this particular matchup going into the championship round? Yeah.

Starting point is 00:14:16 I mean, I think you're right with the turnover, right? I mean, there's so much turnover on this roster. But I'm not too concerned about Michael Wenu or Morgan Mo. Now, can they be beat? Of course they can be beat. But Morgan Moses has been really good pretty much all year long. And he was excellent, excellent last weekend against Houston against Daniel Hunter. He shut down to Neil Hunter. I think, you know, Michael Wenu has played his best football as a patriot at right guard over the past couple of months. He had a down game against the Chargers, but he was much better kind of back to himself. I had some all pro votes this year. So, you know, Michael Wenu, Morgan Moses, you feel really solid about that. that. Garrett Bradbury has been a surprise. I was concerned about his past protection. I do think he has a very difficult challenge ahead of him this weekend with Zach Allen. I think that's going to be very, very tough. John Franklin Myers is no joke. Malcolm Roach is no joke. So the interior of that defensive line, as we know for Denver is good. So Garrett Bradbury

Starting point is 00:15:16 might get a little leaky from time to time. But the biggest issue is the left side of the line. Jared Wilson, rookie left guard, played center at Georgia. He's been up and down last week. He actually played well against Houston. I think it's a tougher matchup for him this weekend against Denver. But the biggest issue was Will Campbell. He has been awful the first couple of playoff games. There's no other way to put it.

Starting point is 00:15:38 You can't put the lipstick on the pig that has been his play, the first couple of playoff games. He was whooped thoroughly last weekend against Will Anderson, Jr., who is a first team all pro. But I think when you're looking at this matchup, it's really Nick Benito versus Will Campbell. And, you know, if Benito, If Benito gets the best of Will Campbell three or four times, then that could be the difference in the game.

Starting point is 00:16:01 And I'm watching the Bill's Broncos film from last weekend. And Nick Benito was pretty quiet the first half. Dionne Dawkins is really good at left tackle. But what happens, right? I mean, the second play of the third quarter, Benito beats him, strip sack. There it is. So if you have one or two of those in this game, that could be the difference. Yeah, absolutely.

Starting point is 00:16:22 And that's what the Broncos defense is going to be trying to do. I know defensive coordinator, Vance Joseph, likes to bring exotic looks in terms of his blitz packages, sending defensive backs, bringing those linebackers up the A-gap, and then disguising it later on in game. So he's going to be trying to play mind games there with that offensive line and Drake May getting his protection set as well. One thing that I think is going to be fascinating in this game,

Starting point is 00:16:46 because it is expected to be relatively mild conditions, albeit very cold in Denver, right, this week. weekend. So I think we can expect, whereas maybe in a game where there's the elements involved like that, you're not necessarily chucking the ball downfield as much. Patriots have been one of the best vertical passing attacks in the NFL this season. In fact, Cody and I talked about this during the week. I mean, Drake May is a legendary status in terms of his accuracy on downfield throws this season, not just in a one year vacuum. The Broncos defensive backs have been much better as of late. But this season, that's been one of

Starting point is 00:17:21 those areas where people will test Riley Moss deep downfield. Are you expecting that going into this matchup? And what do you think with Pat Sartan on the other side? Do you think it's going to be one player in particular getting all the looks? What are your expectations for Patriots ride receivers and that vertical passings? It's almost like we talked about all this before we recorded, which we didn't. I'm glad you brought it up because one of my marquee matchups is Kishon Booty slash Kyle Williams against Riley Moss. because look, the Patriots, they'll spread the football around,

Starting point is 00:17:53 and they'll have different guys going deep on you. But you really look at Kishan Booty and Kyle Williams and everybody, I'm sure, saw the Kishan Booty play against Derek Stingley last weekend. I absolutely expect Drake May to take a couple of shots downfield. It is a big part of this offense. As a matter of fact, I would think it's almost too big a part of this offense the first two playoff games because it's almost, you know,

Starting point is 00:18:16 one big play and then wow, it would happen. and then the offense just dies for the next three or four drive. So Drake May loves taking shots. He is going to take those shots against Denver. I can guarantee you that. I don't know how many. There's going to be multiple shots downfield. I think they're going to target Riley Moss at least a couple of times.

Starting point is 00:18:35 I know he's got a ton of DPIs this year. You know, he's had his struggles every once in a while. So I think they will try to attack that. I'm not sure how much they'll try to attack Patrick Sartan, but I don't think they're afraid. They weren't afraid of Derek Stingley last week. I think they trust Kishon Booty, and he'll, you know, Drake May will give him a shot. Kyle Williams is interesting.

Starting point is 00:18:55 You know, Kyle Williams had a couple of chances last weekend. He's got a great release off the line of scrimmage. He just doesn't have the best chemistry with Drake May just yet, but he is capable of beating man coverage on the outside. There's no doubt about that. So I do think that's a huge part of the Patriots offense. And you've got to be thinking, right, against this defense, if we can get one or two big plays downfield, that could be the difference. That could be us going to the Super Bowl.

Starting point is 00:19:22 So, yeah, I would absolutely unequivocally expect that to happen on Sunday. Yeah, I would as well. I think we're going to see, you know, those shots taken by the Patriots passing attack and the Broncos defensive backfield. They're going to have to prove to be up the task once again. Josh Allen testing deep downfield last week was 0 for 9 through two interceptions when he was attacking 20 plus yards downfield. So it's a feast or famine at this point. of what we've seen from that Broncos secondary. So we're going to find out Broncos country and Patriots fans exactly how these two teams are going to break down individual player matchups, obviously unit matchups,

Starting point is 00:19:59 coaching the chess match, Sean Payton going up against Mike Braybill and the Patriots. I mean, it's all there for just must-see TV, regardless of Bo Nix, is out there or not. But that plays into our keys to victory for this game. Of course, there's the usual suspects in terms of you want to make the other quarterbacks life miserable, but we're going to break down our keys to victory for the AFC championship game between the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots coming up on today's crossover Thursday edition, Lockdown Broncos, Lockdown Patriots.

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Starting point is 00:21:35 you heard about Indeed on this podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Hiring, do it the right way with Indeed. Crossover Thursday is also brought to you by TurboTax. Tax season doesn't have to take. over your life. This year, TurboTax is making it easier than ever to just hand things off and move on with your day. With TurboTax full service, you can have your taxes done for you by a trusted local expert start to finish without the stress or guesswork. Instead of spending hours

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Starting point is 00:22:52 We're going to tell you on today's crossover Thursday edition, Lockdown Broncos and Lockdown Patriots. Once again, thank you so much to all you every day is out there. We appreciate you so much. Nick, I want to defer to you. I want to know what does it got to take for the Patriots to get there? Because obviously the big narrative is, right?

Starting point is 00:23:09 I mean, I guess you can say never. I think they've only played two AFC championships in Denver, right? But Patriots are looking to get off the old Schneid when it comes to winning the AFC title in Denver. So what are they got to do to make it happen? First, they got to win a couple of rounds against Denver's offensive line. I obviously would not expect them to dominate that matchup. I would not expect them to get home as much as they got home against the Chargers and the Texans.

Starting point is 00:23:37 Realistically looking at it, the Chargers' offensive line was a banged up mess. The Houston Offensive Line was below average and did not have their starting right tackle in Trent Brown. this is a whole different ball game against the Broncos offensive line. So can you win a couple of rounds? Can Caleb-on-Chayson make a player two? Can Milton Williams or Christian Barmore make a player two against the interior offensive line? You know, if you get Jared Stidham in second and long, third and long, that should change the game pretty quickly. So can you win a couple of those rounds?

Starting point is 00:24:09 That's one key. Second key, I would say, is take advantage of Vance Joseph's aggressiveness and heavy blitzing. Denver blitzes a lot. Denver blitzed Josh Allen a ton last weekend. And, you know, Drake May for the most part, I know pro football focus would disagree with this, but Drake May has been pretty, pretty good against the blitz this year. So, you know, if Vance Joseph is blitzing, as much as he usually does, can Drake May take advantage of that and what will Josh McDaniels have drawn up, you know, to try to beat some of those blitzes from Vance Joseph as he tries to change the picture on Drake May?

Starting point is 00:24:46 And thirdly, I would say, throw the kitchen sink at Jared Stidham. And this is what the Patriots have done the first couple of playoff games. They threw a lot at Justin Herbert. They threw even more at C.J. Stroud, you know, disguising coverages, all sorts of different pass rushes and in different ways, blitzing five, six, seven guys at times, cover zero at times, running a ton of stunts last week against Houston's offensive line. And I think you'll see more of that. just throw the kitchen sink at Jared Stidham.

Starting point is 00:25:18 He hasn't played an NFL game that counts in more than two years. Try to put him in a blender, as Mike Vrable says. And, you know, Carlton Davis, by the way, he was at Wednesday's practice with a non-contact jersey, which means he's already in phase four out of the five phases in concussion protocol. So right now it looks somewhat promising that Carlton Davis will play on Sunday, which would be a big deal. Because if you have Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis, you can play more man coverage and be confident in that, which allows you to really throw a different variety of things that

Starting point is 00:25:50 Jared Stedham. 100%. And speaking of injury updates and things like that, the Broncos had a number of reinforcements as well at their Wednesday practice starting center, Luke Wattenberg, who's been out since around Christmas time. He was activated off injured reserve and his backup. Alex Forsyth was back at practice as well. We also heard Troy Franklin was out on the practice field.

Starting point is 00:26:12 Pat Bryant, the rookie wide receiver who was kind of featured. early in the divisional round. He was back on the practice field. J.K. Dobbins, the starting running back was back out on the practice field, although Sean Payton would not commit to whether or not he was going to play this weekend. So we'll find out what happens there. But I think those are great keys. Honestly, I think that's that's exactly what has to happen. You're playing against a quarterback who hasn't thrown a regular season past since the end of the 2023 season. Throw everything at it. Make him make split second decisions with the football. I think that's absolutely. key for the Denver Broncos.

Starting point is 00:26:47 I feel like I mentioned the same keys all season, Nick. I really do. And I pretty much say this every crossover Thursday episode, but it's make the opposing quarterback's life miserable. You talked about that for Jared Stidham. I think the Broncos got to do the same thing for Drake May, whether it's disguising coverage, whether it's sending blitzes, whether it's disguising blitzes, getting, you know, your guys to win at the front, which they have all season long, Zach Allen,

Starting point is 00:27:12 number one in quarterback hits. Nick Bonito, Jonathan Cooper, dynamic duo, even your backups come in in Jonah Ellis and Dondray Tillman, and they can make an impact. So make his life miserable, number one, number two. And this has been a huge problem over the second half of the season for the Broncos, but it's converting in the red zone. Don't settle for field goals. Maybe in a game like this where you expect, okay, the defenses are going to kind of tighten up a little bit.

Starting point is 00:27:39 Maybe you do not necessarily want to be overly aggressive if you get like a fourth and goals situation and you have an opportunity to take points or go for it. Maybe you take the points, but at the same time, just convert your red zone opportunities. Denver Broncos have been one of the best teams in the NFL for the majority of the year converting in the red zone. It's tapered off here a little bit since the by week. And then the third key to victory is rally around the backup QB. Everybody else has to have, it's sort of like, you know, if you, if you ever, you know, have a, like an issue with your eye, right? You had something in your eye and you got to, you know, adjust or, you know,

Starting point is 00:28:17 your hearing is damaged for a season or, you know, you have a cold and you can't smell your other, your other senses get heightened is what I'm getting at here, right? Yeah. That's what the rest of the Broncos roster has to do with Bo Nix out. Like, for so much of the season, the formula has been the same. Stay in games as long as we can. And then Bo is going to put on the Superman cape when he needs to. And that's just not going to necessarily.

Starting point is 00:28:41 be the case here in this game. At least you can't expect it to be, right? Right. This defense needs to come out and do what they do. I mean, they've had games this year where the 50 is the end zone and defenses are lucky or offenses are lucky to cross the 50. I'm not saying that's going to happen against the Patriots,

Starting point is 00:28:57 but I've been saying all week long, I think that has to be Denver's defensive mentality is like, you know, remember the Titans saying, like, don't let them get another yard, right? That's what you need to happen in this game. So it's got to be all the other senses being heightened, right? With, with, you know, your quarterback is out. Everybody else has to be like, all right, you know, I've got to really step up in this game.

Starting point is 00:29:21 Not that they were taking anything lightly before, but I think that's going to be crucial for them getting this win. Yeah, I mean, look, I think all of it makes sense. I do think Denver's defense is going to have to be really, really good on Sunday to give them the best chance. Again, it's kind of like a captain obvious statement, but it's true. And, you know, it's the reality of the situation. I don't know if you go into Sunday feeling all that confident that Jared Stidham's going to be able to put up 20 plus points unless Drake May fumbles the football over to them a couple of times and makes it easier for them to do that. So as I said at the beginning of this crossover, you know, Denver has to live by what they're really built, you know, on, which is offensive line play, defensive line play, a couple special teams plays. and maybe the Patriots kind of kick themselves in their own tookus and help you out along the way while you're home.

Starting point is 00:30:15 So yeah, I think that's the recipe. 100% and Broncos fans, Patriots fans, we're excited to find out how it plays out, right? I mean, these two teams have had incredible seasons up to this point. And to be in the NFL's Final Four, like we mentioned at the beginning of the show, after being near the top of the draft, to being without franchise quarterbacks, just two off seasons ago, man, it feels good to be even talking about the chance to play for a chance to go to the Super Bowl. So we appreciate every single one of you so much.

Starting point is 00:30:45 Again, check out the link for the Everyday All Access Club and the show notes. We really encourage you to do that. But thank you so much once again for making us your first listen of the day every single day. And we'll catch you on the next episode of the show.

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