Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Routine: Patriots’ Josh McDaniels Play Calling Underwhelms | A.J. Brown Latest
Episode Date: September 14, 2026New England Patriots’ conservative play-calling sparks debate after missed opportunity against the Seattle Seahawks. Can Josh McDaniels adjust his offensive strategy before pivotal matchups, or will... predictability haunt the Pats this season? Nick Cattles breaks down the Patriots’ run-heavy approach, highlighting how first-down predictability placed pressure on rookie QB Drake Maye and limited their scoring opportunities.Key discussion points include A.J. Brown’s significant injury setback, tough early-season scheduling, and the addition of DaQuan Jones to bolster the defensive line. Nick Cattles explores Maye’s struggles against top defenses, with insights from Greg Bedard and Julian Love, and questions if the offense can evolve without its go-to playmaker. Can the Patriots right the ship against the Pittsburgh Steelers and avoid a disastrous 0-4 start? The stakes have never been higher as the team navigates injuries, depth concerns, and quarterback growing pains.Follow & Subscribe on all Podcast platforms🎧 https://lockedonpodcasts.com/podcasts/locked-on-patriots/Locked On NFL League-Wide: Every Team, Fantasy, Draft, & More🎧 https://lockedonpodcasts.com/leagues/nfl/#patriots #newenglandpatriotsSupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Butcher BoxIf you're looking for an easier way to get great meals on the table, give ButcherBox a try.Go to https://ButcherBox.com/LOCKEDONNFL to get $20 off your first box, plus your choice of free ribeye, new york strip, or filet mignon in every box for a year — with free shipping always.Fabletics Shop now at https://Fabletics.com/LOCKEDONNFL to get 70-80% off everything when you sign up as a new VIP. Take a quick style quiz and be sure to select LOCKEDONNFL when prompted to unlock this offer. This is a limited-time offer, so don’t wait. Bask & Lather Explore viral bestsellers and products of healthier hair of ALL types from Bask and Lather. Go to https://baskandlatherco.com and use code LOCKEDON for 20% off. AuraAura helps protect your personal information by actively removing your data from data broker sites and keeping it off. Start your free trial today at http://aura.com/aware.IndeedListeners of this show get a $75 Sponsored Job Credit to help give your job the premium placement it deserves at http://Indeed.com/podcast.PrizePicksVisit https://prizepicks.onelink.me/LME0/LOCKEDONNFL and use code LOCKEDONNFL and get $150 if you win your first $5 lineup!KALSHIToday's episode is brought to you by Kalshi. For a limited time, Download Kalshi and use code Locked On to get $25 when you trade $25. Kalshi. Trade what’s next. GametimeToday's episode is brought to you by Gametime. Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDON for $20 off your first purchase.FanDuelGet three hundred fifty dollars in Bonus Bets — GUARANTEED — when you bet five dollars every day for seven days. Join all the action at https://FANDUEL.COMFANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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The Pat's offensive game plan against Seattle was reasonable, but Josh McDaniels doubled down on being safe too often.
This is Lockdown Patriots.
You are Locked-on Patriots.
Your daily New England Patriots podcast.
Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day.
What's happening?
I am your host, Nick Cattels.
On today's show, the latest on A.J. Brown's expected absence and why it makes week two that much more critical.
In the second segment, breaking down Drake May's struggles against some of the better defenses.
But first, one last look at Josh McDaniels versus Seattle.
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Lots and lots of conversation about the Patriots, offensive approach against the Seahawks on opening night.
And I see most people treating this as black or white.
Some will say the Patriots were way too conservative.
Others say, well, it made sense that they were conservative.
As with everything, I think there's a decent amount of gray within this conversation.
Let's start here.
I completely agree with leaning towards being safe.
Leaning towards being safe against a defense like Seattle, at Seattle, you want to focus on the line of scrimmage.
I mean, we saw what happened during that Super Bowl just seven months ago.
and how that game got out of control,
the Patriots just lost their way because they lost the battle in the trenches.
And to win against a defense like that,
you need to make sure that up front,
you're doing what you can do,
that it doesn't completely destroy your quarterback's rhythm,
put him in danger, and create turnovers.
Now, I know what ended up happening, which we'll get to later.
But walking into this game and saying to yourself,
if you're the Patriots, let's come out,
let's try to establish the run, let's play big personnel, let's try to force Seattle's hand.
It makes some sense. I think it is a reasonable thing to walk into that game saying to yourself,
especially in Seattle. That place is so tough to play at. It's incredibly, incredibly difficult to play in
Seattle. And then I think when Sam Donald goes out with an injury and he doesn't come back,
that kind of reinforces the thought process of the Patriots because you don't necessarily
need fireworks to beat Drew Locke.
You just need to take care of the football, control the line of scrimmage as much as you
can, and score enough points.
And so when you think about it, the plan was working.
The plan was working.
It wasn't exciting.
It wasn't something that, you know, got you jumping off your couch and saying,
man, oh man, can you imagine, can you imagine thinking up that play call that Josh McDaniels
just called against Mike McDonald in that defense?
It wasn't going to do that.
but the plan was working.
You were up 10-0 late into the third quarter of that football game.
You were up two possessions with their backup quarterback in the game.
You had control of that football game.
And Mike Reese over the weekend, ESPN.com, he came up with a couple of points of his own.
If you look at time of possession, the Patriots led time of possession,
34 minutes and 17 seconds to 25 minutes, 43 seconds.
When you look at the amount of plays that were called, the Patriots had 71 offensive plays, Seattle had 50.
I mean, just basic math tells you if you have 21 more plays than the opposition, that gives you more opportunity to score points, which is the idea, right?
So the Patriots, they dominated a time of possession.
They dominated the amount of offensive plays.
They were up two possessions late in the third quarter.
And then what happened was when the game was left to Drake May's devices,
it went off the freaking rails, as we talked about in the post game.
But with all of that said, and this is why I think there's gray in this conversation,
like most conversations that we should have in 2026.
Because just because you were up 10-0 and just because you dominated the time of possession
and just because you had 21 more offensive plays than Seattle,
it does not mean you have to be ridiculously predictable
and continue to slam your head into the wall
like the Patriots offense did,
especially early in that football game.
Evan Lazzar points out, you know,
if you look at it, there were 16 runs to 11 passes on first down.
So you had 27 first downs
and Josh McDaniels out of those 27 first downs
called 16 runs and 11 passes.
And when you look at the breakdown between first down passing and first down running,
first down passing was so much more productive than first down running.
When the Patriots threw the football on first down, their EPA was plus point two.
When they ran the football on first down, their EPA was negative.3.1.
That is a significant swing.
So as you continue to call first down runs and they're not.
not working and you continue to call first down runs and they're not working and you're getting
one yard, two yards. Maybe you get a tackle for loss by the Seattle defense, but you continue to
call those first down runs. That's where the mistake was to me from Josh McDaniels. It wasn't the
approach. It wasn't the overall philosophy of what you were going to do in that football game.
It was the fact that when you saw that it was not working, you did not pivot quick enough.
and you put your offense in a very, very difficult position.
Because when you're getting, you know, one yard, two yards on first down,
that's going to make it very, very challenging for Drake May
when he is consistently looking at second and eight, second and seven,
third and six, third and seven,
because the idea is run the football effectively
and create those third and short opportunities for your offense.
But you weren't getting those.
You weren't getting those.
and you continue to double down on the strategy.
And I think that's where the gray area is.
It's not necessarily the game plan.
It's not going in and trying to be somewhat conservative.
It's when something is clearly not working
and you keep going to it time and time again.
At some point, you've got to throw away the game plan and say,
it's not working consistently.
Let's try something else on first down.
And I thought it took a little bit too long for McDaniels to do that.
And I don't think he did it.
enough throughout the game. So, you know, if I was to look back at Wednesday night and I would
try to criticize something from Josh McDaniels in that offense, I would have liked to see them
mix in some more early game throws on first down. I would like to see them utilize the wide
receivers and tight ends a little bit more earlier than they did. They finally got to it by like
the third series or so and started to play more 11 personnel. And when they played three receivers,
things changed. The Patriots touchdown drive, you saw,
spread formations, you saw more 11 personnel.
So I think you need to get to that a little bit quicker when things aren't working.
You're not going to wear down that Seattle defensive front, given what you were producing
with those first down runs.
Now, yes, of course, the A.J. Brown injury also did not help you.
And I wonder, you know, if A.J. Brown is still in that game, you get a couple of more first
downs, you move the chains, maybe you put a couple of more, you know, points up on the board.
Maybe you get a field goal or two more field goals.
Maybe you get a touchdown.
Who know?
AJ Brown leaving that game didn't help you in the second half because AJ Brown is easy money.
A lot of times on third down.
When you need it, he can get it.
He converted two third downs in that game.
So Brown leaving hurt you.
One other thing that hurt the Patriots offense that I have not heard people talk about nearly
enough was that they had terrible field position for the vast majority of this game.
And so when you're backed up in your own end, you don't want to do anything too exotic, right?
You don't want to go too crazy.
Like the first drive, you're starting at your own eight-yard line.
So running the football from your own eight, I get it.
Because the last thing you want to do is turn the football over, give Seattle a short field,
they score quickly.
and now you might be trying to, you know, gather yourself as Seattle has all the momentum
and that place is going crazy. So, you know, drive one starts at your own eight yard line.
Now drive two and drive three, 20 yard line, 23 yard line, respectively.
And, you know, when you look at the first half possessions, the Patriots, their best field position
was that third drive when they started from their own 23.
And that was the possession where they scored the touchdown.
So they went to 11 personnel more.
They had better field position.
They score a touchdown.
Then the drive before the end of the half,
you start from your own eight yard line again.
So two of your four drives started from your own eight.
No matter what you're doing offensively,
it's going to be very difficult starting a drive inside your own 10
and going against that type of defense in Seattle.
Now in the second half, more mixed results.
The first drive, you started from your,
own 29 yard line that ended in a field goal. So the two best field position, uh, possessions that
you had, you scored points from your own 23, scored a touchdown from your own 29. You kick the
field goal. But then your second drive in the second half was from your own six. That's where you started.
Three and out. Killer. The best field position you had to start a drive in this entire game was the
third drive of the second half when you started from your own 32. You had a shot at points on
Unfortunately, Drake May throws his first interception, but you had a chance to score points there.
Then you're back starting from your own 14.
That ends up in a pick.
And then you're starting from your own 27.
You're in field goal range.
You have a chance to score a touchdown, actually.
But then you had May's third and final interception.
So when you look at the field position, when the Patriots started, you know, in decent field position,
they put points on the board or put themselves in position to score points.
if it wasn't for the quarterback, two out of those final three drives,
you should have put points up.
And you didn't, obviously.
So it's just, it's a mixture of a lot of things.
But I do think McDaniel's doubling down with the, you know, the first down runs.
I would have liked to see him mix it up a little bit more,
especially when they get off to that slow start.
But I also agree with the philosophy and understand what they're thinking going into that game.
And there are a couple of things that impact you.
that go beyond the play calling with the AJ Brown injury and the field position that was just God awful,
which is going to force your hand a few of those times to be more conservative than maybe you even want it to be.
All right. Coming up, Drake May hasn't been close to the same quarterback when the competition stiffens.
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Thank you for making us your first listen and for being an everyday or the studio.
Hopefully you like it.
A little bit more light.
Still trying to figure some things out.
But if you're watching, hopefully it's a little bit more clear.
The resolution is better as we continue to look to improve here.
Drake May, he hasn't been nearly as good versus good to really good defenses as he has been against mediocre to bad defenses, right?
I mean, if you look at Drake May's career and Greg Bedard did a great job of this at Boston Sports Journal, you know, documenting.
May's numbers against winning teams and May's numbers against teams with losing records.
And as Bedard pointed out, these kinds of multiple defenses that Drake May saw in Seattle,
they have given him some issues.
And Bedard writes, look at his stats over the last season plus against teams that finish
with a losing record.
So Drake May against teams with a losing record is 13 and 1.
This is going back to the beginning, I believe, of 2025.
May is 13 and 1.
His completion percentage is 72.1%.
29 touchdowns, only six interceptions.
His pass rating is 118.4.
Against teams with winning records, including Seattle last Wednesday night,
Drake May's record is 4 and 4.
His completion percentage goes from 72.1 down to 64.6.
His touchdowns go down from 29 to 9.
His picks go up from 6 to 9.
and is passerating again against teams with losing records.
Drake May's passer rating is 118.4 against teams with winning records.
It's 82.
He's just not the same guy.
Now, some of this is Captain obvious stuff.
Good to really good defenses are just that.
They're good to really good defenses,
which means you have a lot less room for error against talented pass rushers
and or talented secondaries.
So if you're going against a really good defense, it's more difficult to score points.
It's more difficult to consistently move the chains.
That pretty much goes without saying.
You also see more turnovers from, you know, good to really good defenses because of their individual talent.
And sometimes the combination of talent and scheme like we see from Seattle,
where Seattle could be all sorts of banged up in the secondary with Nick Eamon Worry and other guys being banged up and not out there.
Tyacotta was not out there, but Seattle's defense was pretty sound in the secondary.
That's great coaching.
It's great scheme.
But, you know, just saying, well, the captain obvious part of this,
Drake May is not the same guy against good to really good defenses as he is against not so good
defenses because he's just facing better defenses.
There are other things that can explain some of May's issues.
And number one, I think it's pretty clear.
Drake May tries to do too much at times.
and I can't tell you how many times I mentioned this last year,
you've got to take the profit, take the profit if it's there.
And I thought May a couple of times against the Seahawks,
he had a profit if he checked down, he decided not to,
and it resulted in two interceptions.
The pick where he's throwing it down the left sideline of Romeo Dobbs,
he has an outlet there.
I think it was Corey Kiner in the flat, decides not to throw it to Kiner,
goes deep, intercept.
the play to pop Douglas, the second pick from May.
He's got Ramandre Stevenson on the right side and the flat.
Dump it off to Stevenson.
Stevenson probably gets at least five yards, if not more.
So take the profit when the profit is there.
And May sometimes, and when you're going against good teams,
you're going against really good defenses,
when you don't take the profit and you throw a pick,
you make a mistake, a lot of times those mistakes are going to come back
to haunt you because you're going against a better team.
All right, more thoughts, but I remind you as you watch us,
especially if you're watching us on YouTube,
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Help us with the algorithm, help build this community.
Give us that like, throw a comment in as well.
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Throw those comments in the likes in the comments.
Help us with the algorithm.
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drivers. Greg Bedard, as he was, you know, charting the numbers of Drake May against teams with
losing records and winning records. He also made a great callback. And this was, you know,
Julian Love last year at the Super Bowl. And Love was miced up. And I don't know how many of
you remember this, but Love says during the game, when he's talking about Drake May, he says
classic young quarterback.
He's confirming the receiver is open.
He's not blindly doing it like Stafford, as in obviously Matthew Stafford.
Now, what does Julian Love mean by saying Drake May is confirming the wide receiver is open?
It means that May needs to see it before he trusts it.
He needs to see the guy physically open, not every single throw, but he needs to see.
He's most comfortable against, you know, especially good defenses.
He's most comfortable throwing the ball when he confirms his guy is open.
When he is absolutely confident that the dude is open,
he's going to make the throw to the open receiver,
he's going to make a play.
So he's not necessarily always trying to fit it in tight windows.
Again, this is not 100% because you remember in the playoffs against the Texans last year,
that touchdown throw to Stefan Diggs was ridiculous.
I mean, you want to talk about threading the needle.
But there are times, as Julian Love pointed out,
while he was miced during that Super Bowl,
where May he has to confirm that the wide receiver is open before he throws it.
And sometimes when you're doing that, it means you hesitate.
It means that you're late to that receiver.
So that's one issue.
On top of that, when you are, you know, waiting to confirm that your receiver is open,
well, things change, right?
The pre-snap, the post-snap, what you expect to happen.
So, you know, when you're going against somebody like a Mike McDonald who,
can, quote, quote, spin the dial, it can cloud coverages.
And so when you're hesitating and you're a little bit late and you combine that with,
you know, the coverages that are a little bit clouded, you might not be seeing it perfectly,
it results in bad decisions, in bad throws, and turnovers.
Now, the good news is Drake May is 24.
And the good news is that the expectation is that Drake May will get better as time goes on.
And to go back to Greg Bedardy, he made a great analogy, you know, Josh Allen against the Patriots.
You know, early years Josh Allen, Bill Belichick would be able to spin that dial.
They would be able to confuse Josh Allen.
Allen would make mistakes.
But then as Alan matured, he got better at taking the profit.
Now, he's not always flawless.
And we just saw this this weekend when Allen threw a terrible ball into the end zone against Houston.
that should have been a game ending interception, but it was dropped, and Alan comes right back and
zips it into Joshua Palmer for the game winning touchdown.
So you're still going to make some of those mistakes, and you're especially going to make
some of those mistakes when you have so much raw talent like an Allen like a May.
But it's just the idea of, you know, taking more profits, being a little bit more patient,
and, you know, not worrying all the time to confirm that your guy is open, to trust, to trust
yourself to make some more of those anticipatory throws against good defenses.
And so it's a fine balance and it's tough for quarterbacks, especially very talented
quarterbacks to learn it.
I think Drake May will get there.
But we have to remember, as great as he was last year, there's a learning curve.
And he's going to step in it from time to time.
And obviously in Seattle, he stepped in it in that fourth quarter.
next the latest on a j brown and the patriots add a big body over the weekend this is locked on
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Ian Rappaport reporting on Sunday says that A.J. Brown's absence is expected to be closer to six weeks than four weeks.
And we discussed throughout this entire offseason, throughout camp, how tough this schedule is for the Patriots early on.
The fact you play four playoff teams, your first four games.
If A.J. Brown misses six games, he will not play against Pittsburgh next week. He will not play at Jacksonville.
He will not play at Buffalo.
He's not going to play against Vegas at Gillette.
Now, we know that's going to be the case, those four games,
because over the weekend, Brown was placed on in-season IR,
which means he has to miss at least four games.
So Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Vegas, he's out.
Then you've got a home game.
Week five of the injury would be a home game against the Jets.
And then you travel to Chicago to play against the Bears on Thursday night football.
And getting A.J. Brown back after five weeks, I think would be significant because that Chicago
matchup is vital. That's a tough week. You know, it's a short week. You got to go to Chicago
and obviously playing against Ben Johnson and that bears offense. They're going to put points
up, scored more than 50 points in week one against Carolina. So that explosive offense,
very difficult to deal with. And you might have to get in a little bit.
of an arms race on that Thursday night.
And having Brown there would obviously help you with that arms race.
You know, and if you look at week two coming up, you look at this Pittsburgh game,
it feels like you have to win in week two.
And I know that might sound crazy.
But if you don't win week two against the Steelers at home, if you don't do that,
you could be staring at an O and four star because then you got to go to Jacksonville
and it is going to be super hot.
Jacksonville got off to a great start.
Of course, they played Cleveland,
so that's not difficult to do.
But you have to go to Jacksonville and play the Jaguars,
and then you're going to go play at Buffalo against Josh Allen.
I would imagine that the Jaguars and the Bills will both be favored,
and frankly, they should be favored in those games at home.
So, you know, starting the season 1 and 3 and losing that tough game in Seattle,
would feel better than starting your season 0 and 4.
And that's why you look back at Wednesday night, man,
and you're kicking yourself in the butt.
Because if Drake May doesn't fall apart in that fourth quarter
and you walk away with the dub,
you might start this year at 2 and 0.
And then, you know, worst case scenario,
you're going into that Vegas game at 2 and 2.
You beat Vegas, you beat the Jets.
Now you're 4 and 2 going into Chicago
and with or without A.J. Brown losing at Chicago on a short week,
wouldn't be the end of the world.
But now you're looking at it because you lost week one,
because your quarterback threw up on himself,
and now you don't have A.J. Brown,
this feels like as close to a must win.
And of course, it's not a must win,
but it does feel like as much of a must win
as you could have in week two of a season.
Because you might be looking at O'N4.
You should still beat Vegas.
You should still beat the Jets without A.J. Brown.
you should be able to do enough to beat both of those teams at Gillette.
And so if you can win that game against Pittsburgh,
even if you go 0 and 2 against Jacksonville and Buffalo,
you come back, you win a couple of games against Vegas and the Jets,
and now you don't feel so terrible, right?
I mean, now you're looking at it, and what would you be?
Three and three?
I think you would lose Seattle.
Let me do the math out loud, Nick.
Lose the Seattle, win Pittsburgh, lose Jacksonville, Buffalo,
in Vegas and the Jets.
Yeah, you'd be three and three going to that Chicago game.
So this Pittsburgh game, it's, again, for a week two, very important.
Meanwhile, the Patriots signed AQUAN Jones on Friday, one year,
$3.5 million deal up to $6 million.
I did a short on this.
The interior defensive line depth was needed.
This is something we've discussed multiple times.
We discussed it throughout training camp.
The idea that you really didn't replace Kyrie's Tonga, you just elevated
Corey Durdon.
And you're looking at, you know, Leonard Taylor and Joshua Farmer.
Neither of those guys did much of anything against Seattle.
And now you've got your top four rotation of Milton Williams, Christian Barmore,
Corey Durdon, and I would believe Dayquan Jones.
Mark Daniels notes that Jones has started every game the last 11 years.
I don't think he's starting over Williams or Barmore.
Maybe he does because the Patriots mix up their defensive line.
So maybe he does.
but Dequan Jones was in Tennessee with Vrable.
He's obviously, again, an 11-year veteran.
So I don't think it's going to take him a ton of time to get acclimated.
I think he will be active week two against the Steelers.
And I do think he helps you with the Kyrie's Tonga loss.
Evan Lazar pointed out in Dayquan Jones' last season with the Titans.
He played 62% of the time at nose tackle.
So it's right where Tonga was.
Jones also, though, can penetrate the gaps.
He can get some pressure on the quarterback.
Taylor Kyle's posted that he believes Jones could play any spot on the interior defensive line.
So Kyle's believes he's got some more versatility.
So I love it.
I love the addition of Dayquan Jones.
You needed somebody who could, you know, go out there and be somewhat productive,
especially against the run.
And I think Jones is an upgrade over farmer.
I think he is an upgrade over Leonard Taylor.
And, you know, hopefully Farmer continues to mature and figure it out and get better.
And by the end of the year, he's that guy and not Dayquan Jones.
But for right now, I think it was a necessary move.
Two more notes from the Seattle game.
I just wanted to mention this quickly.
I didn't quite understand I posted this on Wednesday night in real time.
I didn't understand Mike Vrable not calling a timeout at the end of the half to give Marcus Jones a shot at a punt return.
I don't know why.
I know, you know, the punting was fantastic,
but give your guy a shot.
Give your guy a shot at the end of the half.
And you were calling timeouts to conserve clock.
So it was pretty confusing that you called timeouts,
you conserved some of that time.
And then you had the opportunity to call another time out
and give your great punt return or a shot to return a punt.
And you decided not to.
That was pretty confusing to me.
And speaking of Marcus Jones,
he played only 24 defensive snaps against the Seahawks.
and that's because of what we talked about last week late in the week.
The Patriots played a decent amount of three safeties,
and Del Pettis was out there with Kevin Byrd and Craig Woodson.
And as I said, Del Pettus was not good.
So if you're wondering why the Patriots traded for Jalen Reed,
well, if you're going to play three safeties,
I don't think you're going to survive that with Pettis.
That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots.
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