Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Seismic: Drake Maye Drives New England Patriots' Free Agent Success

Starting point is 00:00:00 Before free agency began, we felt the Pats had a Trump card in their back pocket with Drake May. And that's exactly how things played out. This is Locked-on Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcasts network, your team every day. It doesn't happen in. I am your host, Nick Cattels. I've been covering the Pats for the past 16 years and welcome to Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. On today's show, the truth behind the Pat's spending in 2026, and whether or not the team has been truly cheap.

Starting point is 00:00:49 In the second segment, the Pat's nailed this free agent market and why that is a big deal in multiple ways. But first, the Drake May impact was obvious in the first week of free agency. There is nothing more important than finding the right guy. at quarterback. We've talked about it ever since really the inception of football, but it has grown and grown and it's important over the past couple of decades. You need a quarterback, a bona fide number one quarterback franchise type guy to give your team the best chance to compete and contend year in and year out. If you fall short of finding that type of guy, you are going to struggle. You're going to try to find different ways to win football games. And that does not

Starting point is 00:01:36 bring consistency, not in the 2026 NFL, not when you need to put some points up on the board. And so you need to find that right guy. And in 2024, when the Patriots drafted Drake, May, the hope was May would end up being that guy. And then you fast forward through this past season. And man, oh man, runner up to the MVP, truly a game changing type quarterback that we witnessed this past season. But not only could drive. Drake May changed the game on the field, May could change the game off the field. And that's why it's so crucial to find that franchise-type quarterback,

Starting point is 00:02:16 not somebody who can just kick the can down the road until you find that guy. Because once you find that guy, and it feels like the Patriots have, once you find that guy, he will have a real impact on free agency. He will have a real impact in players' decisions to stay in New England. And we saw that play out this past week. We saw it play out week one free agency because Drake May's impact, his effect on free agency, oh man, it was real and it was fantastic. Mike Reese over the weekend wrote at ESPN about May's impact on free agency and what

Starting point is 00:02:57 some of the free agents had to say when they met with the media late last week. Reese wrote, Kevin Byard summed it up after spending the last two seasons with the Bears and being part of Caleb Williams rise, quote, an ascending quarterback. It's one of the hardest things to get right in the NFL. New England has it right with Drake May. I'm excited to be able to play with him, unquote. Bayard also explained, quote,

Starting point is 00:03:21 once I saw Chicago wasn't going to work out, it was New England. Drake May is a phenomenal player. I've heard nothing but great things about him from multiple people in the organization even before I got here, unquote. or multiple people in the organization, you don't have to think very hard to figure out that was likely a lot of the defensive coaches who have a history with Kevin Byard going back to his days in Tennessee. But Byard wasn't the only one talking up, pumping the tires of May to the media.

Starting point is 00:03:56 Reggie Gilliam said, quote, when I walked in, I saw him for the first time and I was like, wow, he's bigger than I expected. Drake has a lot of the same qualities as Josh, obviously speaking of Josh Allen, who he played alongside in Buffalo. I believe in him a ton and I'm anxious to see what he can do, unquote. Back to the defensive side, Draymont Jones. Mike Reese writes,

Starting point is 00:04:20 Jones pointed out how his Ravens team led by 11 points in the fourth quarter of a late December game only to see May and the Patriots storm back for a 28-24 win. Here's what Joan said, quote, I thought we were going to get in his head, but he turned everything around. That game showed he doesn't get rattled, unquote. Of course, money trumps all. The best offer usually lands the free agent. But if the money is close, if the money is even, May is a tiebreaker for the Patriots. He is a tiebreaker for Mike Vrable and Elliot Wolf and Ryan Cowden and John Stretcher.

Starting point is 00:05:01 striker, he is a tiebreaker to pitch to free agents. The belief and the idea that somebody who is not even 25 years old yet is the runner up of the MVP this past season, the belief in that guy. It matters. It matters. And if you didn't believe me going back a few weeks ago, hopefully you believe me now. Drake May absolutely affected free agency. And theoretically, here's the really cool thing.

Starting point is 00:05:33 It's only going to get better. It should only get better. May has started 33 games in the NFL, not even two seasons worth. And also you think about the fact he will be entering in his second year in this offense. And we know with the Josh McDaniels offense, even if it's stripped down somewhat than what it was going back to the Brady days, you look at this Josh McDaniels offense, and it's really like any offense, but especially McDaniels, as you grow more familiar with the system, as you understand what you're trying to accomplish offensively,

Starting point is 00:06:15 and you get the terminology down, and you have the plays that you love, and you know what your go-toes are and why they are your go-toes, et cetera, et cetera. Second year in an offense should be better than the first year. being in that offense. So May's second year under McDaniels should be better than his first. Now, I don't know if the stats will show that, but his understanding of the offense, his ability to run the offense. So the May impact on free agency, that should only grow as his career and his reputation grows.

Starting point is 00:06:56 and of course if you have a better supporting cast if you're May, you're going to end up with better numbers. And he turns 24 years old in August. And that's the really cool thing here. We're not talking about a Matthew Stafford, right? We're not talking about somebody who won the MVP this past season, but in his late 30s, who knows how long he has. So guys might be willing to sign with the Rams.

Starting point is 00:07:25 they might want to be a Los Angeles ram because of what Stafford brings to the table. But they don't know if Matthew Stafford is going to be there beyond the next season, two seasons. With May, he's not even 24 yet. So if you're Romeo Dobbs and you're in your mid-20s, you sign with the Patriots, you say to yourself, if I take care of business, if I do what I'm supposed to do, if I play to the best of my ability, I can be with one of the best quarterback in football for the next five, six, seven years until the tires fall off, till the wheels fall off, I could be in New England with one of the best quarterbacks in football.

Starting point is 00:08:04 So it not only impacts your short term in bringing in guys veterans like Kevin Bayard, who's going to be 33 in August, as May turns 24 in August. It doesn't only help you with the Byards of the world. It helps you with the guys who are in their mid-20s. It helps you with the guys who are walking into their prime because your window. Your window with May should be a pretty extensive window to look at. As long as he stays healthy, as long as he continues to improve. You have a shot at contending now, and you have a shot at contending for the next six, seven, eight, ten years.

Starting point is 00:08:47 The Drake May effect, it was real and it was fantastic. And it shouldn't end. The Pats did their free agency homework. and it paid off big time. That's coming up next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

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Starting point is 00:10:20 If you sign up before the NCAA tournament tips off, you can compete against me and our men's and women's bracket pools on Discord. The winner in each will get $100 in locked on merchandise. to lockdown patriots. supercast.com or check the link in the show notes to learn even more. Also, don't forget if you're watching us on YouTube, like, comment, and subscribe. Click that thumbs up, helps us with the algorithm, builds up the numbers, throw a comment in. How do you feel about the Drake May effect actually playing out first week of free agency? Throw a comment in and don't forget to subscribe.

Starting point is 00:10:57 The Patriots continue to be praised for their week of work they had last week. Pro football focus graded the Patriots first week of free agency as a B plus. So we look at Roto World. We look at PFF. We look at Aaron Schatz. You can look at a lot of these different outlets, a lot of these different platforms, and pretty much all of them, like if not love, what the Patriots did, in week one of free agency. And part of that is the fact that the Pats nailed this free agent

Starting point is 00:11:34 market. The details of these contracts are coming out. And I am here to tell you, there is not a single example of a crazy overpay, quote unquote, to any of these guys. A lot of these contracts landed about where you thought they would land money wise. And it's pretty obvious. It's pretty obvious. the Patriots had a firm grasp on what this free agent market looked like, what these guys should be offered, and what they would be happy with. Let's look at Romeo Dobbs. First example, the total guarantees, because you'll hear the four years, $68 million, I always warn all of you, the funny money gets reported. The first contract that gets reported is usually going to have all the fluff in it because the agents are reporting these contracts, right? They're telling

Starting point is 00:12:27 the reporters the information. They're leaking, not reporting, they're leaking the contract numbers to insiders. Insiders release that information, that leaked information. So those contracts always look better than they really are. So Romeo Dobbs, you heard, four years, 68 million. In reality, the Romeo Dobbs contract, now that we have the details, is a two-year, $39 million deal. Now, 3 million of that 39 million is quote unquote assumed incentives. So you could even call the Romeo Dobbs contract a two-year deal worth about $36 million, guaranteed. That's the Romeo Dobbs contract.

Starting point is 00:13:12 And when you look at Andrew De Silva, who posted going back last week, you look at the money, the average per year, what these wide receivers are making now in 26. And you look at Justin Jefferson. You look at Jamar Chase. True wide receiver ones, we would call them, right? The alphas. They're making anywhere between 35 to 40 million per year. When you look at current wide receiver twos, T. Higgins, you can look at Devante Smith from the Philadelphia Eagles. Those wide receiver twos are making between 20 and 30. 30 million per year. So when you look at the fact that 20 to 30 million is really wide receiver to money, you also think of the fact that the cap, again from Andrew De Silva, just increased by

Starting point is 00:14:05 more than $20 million. 30 million today is not the same as 30 million a year or two ago because you look at the percentage of the cap each guy is costing you. Then you look at a data Roma post that said, you know, data Roma posted the cap has increased over 65% since 2021. So when you look at the Romeo Dobbs contract, he's going to cost you about 18 million guaranteed in the first two years of that deal. So he's even underneath wide receiver two money if you look at T. Higgins, Devante Smith, and some others. He's underneath that.

Starting point is 00:14:42 And he is way below 35 to 40 million a year. So if anybody is telling you the Patriots paid Dobbs, like a number one receiver, that person is being disingenuous or they just don't have the facts straight. Because the Dobbs contract puts him actually underneath wide receiver two money in 2026, especially given the cap rising and the cap increasing over 65% since 2021. Not only that, the Dobbs contract structure is friendly. Pete Collins from the Foxfellas podcast, he posted that,

Starting point is 00:15:20 the Patriots have a clear out in 2028. They can get out of this contract after 26, 27. And if they decide to get out of the contract in 2028, guess what? The dead cap hit that we've been talking about with A.J. Brown's contract.

Starting point is 00:15:36 The dead cap hit of Romeo Dobbs being let go is zero. Zero. And it would actually save the Patriots $19 million if they decide to cut the cord with Dobbs in 2028. Pat's cap, who does a great job, was on Twitter, now is on blue sky, keeps a

Starting point is 00:15:58 close eye on every single move the Patriots make when it comes to this roster financially and keeps track of the cap. Pat's cap posted, why do I consider the Romeo Dobbs contract, a team-friendly contract? The Patriots can trade him after June 1st of this year and create cap space in both. the current year and the following year. Starting in 2027, the Patriots can cut Dobbs and create cap space. And he also has large active roster bonuses, offseason workout bonuses and incentives. So the Romeo Dobbs contract, frankly, you can't get a better contract for a guy who you're hoping to be at least number two productivity, right? A guy who you think can fill the spot of Stefan Diggs. The other deals in free agency, Julian Hill's three-year deal, that was up to $18 million.

Starting point is 00:16:56 In reality, Julian Hill's contract is two years with $7.5 million guaranteed. He also has assumed incentives that can get that contract up to $9.5 million. But, I mean, the tippity top of it, you're really looking at a two-year deal worth around $10 million if Julian Hill cashes in those assumed incentives. Draymont Jones's actual contract, that breaks down to a two-year $23 million deal, fully guaranteed. And when you start to compare these contracts with, you know, the contract projections, let's look at pro football focus. Pro football focus had Dobbs, three years, $45 million.

Starting point is 00:17:36 That's $15 million per year. Dobbs gets $17 million on the A, P.Y from the Patriots. But remember, the assumed incentives are included. Elijah Vera Tucker, pro football focus. had him at four years, 70 million. That's 17.5 million per year. Patriots got him for 14 million per year. And don't forget, he's got some big per game incentive bonuses because of his injury history.

Starting point is 00:18:01 Draymond Jones was looked at as a two-year, $20 million player, $10 million per year. Patriot signed him for $13 million per year. But remember, the real deal is actually two years and $23 million, not far off from the two years, $20 million that PFF had. Kevin Byer, two years, 18 million. Patriots ended up paying him one year, $9 million. So same average per year at $9 million, but the Patriots only had to commit to one season to sign Kevin Byer.

Starting point is 00:18:32 These are contracts that are nailing the market. And so why does that matter? Why does it matter to you? Why does it matter to me and not only the Kraft family? because the Patriots are not insulting these players. They're not insulting the agents of these players. They're having genuine, legitimate conversations. They are understanding the market because they have the right connections.

Starting point is 00:19:00 They have the right networking skills. They're not walking in thinking they're going to be able to get a player for $5 million per year less than what the player's market actually is. that would get you off to a terrible start in conversations. And that could cause relationships in the league to kind of be soiled. So the fact that you understand, you're not insulting the reps, you're not insulting the players, you understand the market, you are creating these connections and networking in the right way, which allows you to get deals done quicker. It's more efficient, right?

Starting point is 00:19:37 If you walk in, you want to buy a car. You want to pay $20,000 for that car. Well, if the dealership is looking for $30,000, that's going to be a pretty tough negotiation. So that's one reason. Another reason is, you know, fair deals, if you're cutting fair deals, they lead to positive relationships, they lead to happy players, and they lead to a better reputation for the organization. So people aren't talking about the Patriots, low-balling guys. right, you walk into free agency, you get these deals done, fair market value, fantastic.

Starting point is 00:20:17 Now you're looked at as a team that is actually working towards getting deals done in improving the team instead of saving every dollar that you can. Not everything is a battle when you get to the negotiating table. And the final point I'll bring up here is that fair deals lead to bigger acquisitions. they lead to huge extensions because you're not overspending on everybody. If you're signing fair deals with the vast majority of your roster, that will leave you, in essence, money if you've got to pay a little bit extra to bring in that bigger name or to extend a Christian Gonzalez or a Drake May.

Starting point is 00:21:04 If you are responsible for most, you can go big time for a few. Coming up, speaking of spending, I'll give you the reality of Pat's spending and how they stack up versus the rest of the NFL this off season. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. What if sports were traded like markets? Now you can put your sports IQ to work in real time with parenthood prediction markets. It's not you against the house. It's you participating in a live market. You can buy or sell your positions live all game long.

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Starting point is 00:22:53 Build up the numbers, like, comment, all that stuff. We want to get to 10,000 subscribers by the draft. All right. During the Bill Belichick, Tom Brady era, the spending by the people, Patriots dramatically shifted from certain years to other years. And I know that it has been a, and I'm going to put some lights on in here because it's getting a little dark, if you're watching the video. If you're not watching the video, you don't care.

Starting point is 00:23:24 I know it's been talked a lot about on the radio, some other places about the Patriots and their spending or their lack of spending and how cheap they were during the Brady years and et cetera, et cetera. I'm just going to tell you that recently because I don't care about what happened during the Brady era, the Patriots won six Super Bowls, they went to a billion of them. I'm just going to tell you recently, the Patriots have spent. They spent big in 2021.

Starting point is 00:23:50 They spent pretty big in 2024. They spent big, big, big last off season. So what about this offseason? What about free agency last week? What do the numbers say as far as the Patriots spending in this free agency period. Well, you go to Over the Cap. Over the Cap does a great job, this website.

Starting point is 00:24:13 They track all of the spending for every NFL team, and it is up to date. Again, they do fantastic work. And I am here to tell you that the Patriots are one of the top spending teams in the NFL so far this offseason. In overall spending, the Patriots are fifth, in overall spending $183 million.

Starting point is 00:24:35 They are eighth in the NFL in average per year at $7.9 million. They are eighth in guaranteed money at $96.8 million. They are fifth in the NFL in fully guaranteed money at $92.8 million. And as far as cash goes, the Patriots, are fifth and first year cash handed out at 61.9 million. So the Patriots are eighth in average per year. They're eighth and guaranteed dollars. Their fifth in overall spending fully guaranteed money in first year cash.

Starting point is 00:25:20 Those are the facts, Jack. Now, I'm not painting it in any other way. Those are the numbers. And you still have to sign the draft class. obviously, right? So that'll be some more money. You still have the Christian Gonzalez contract extension. Now, you could wait. You could wait on the Gonzalez extension until 2027 because he's only walking into his fourth year, so you can pick up his 50-year option. And you don't really have your back against the wall

Starting point is 00:25:52 until, you know, a year or two down the road. However, I do think it's more likely the Patriot try to get a deal done with Gonzalez this off season, because if you wait until 2027 for Gonzalez, now you have both Gonzalez and Drake May to deal with. Because you can sign your first round picks to extensions after their third year. So next off season, May will be walking into a situation where he could negotiate a contract extension. and the Patriots will have urgency.

Starting point is 00:26:32 They should have urgency with May because what you don't want to do is kick the can down the road at that position. Because if you prolong that process, Drake May could cost you tens of millions of dollars more. So it's a little bit different with cornerback because the top three, four, five cornerbacks are all making around the same amount of money

Starting point is 00:26:55 and the market does not jump as much. as it jumps with the quarterback position. But I just, I find it very difficult. If the Patriots plan, which it should be, if the Patriots plan is to get Drake May's contract extension done as early as possible to not pay even more money to the quarterback, then that means they're going to want to do it next offseason. And I just don't see Christian Gonzalez and Drake May getting paid

Starting point is 00:27:28 you know, having those contracts. And of course, you don't pay those deals in that year. But those are two huge negotiations that you've got to get done. And I just, I don't think you want to be getting into it and driving up the market of Gonzalez and also maybe driving up the market of May by what we just talked about last segment, right? Fair deal, fair value. If you can get it done, get it done. And so I don't think you want to negotiate both Gonzalez and May's contract in the same offseason. You might be playing with fire there. Again, you don't have to pay out the money because the contract is the contract,

Starting point is 00:28:08 his rookie contract, his rookie contract. He's going to make what he's set to make. And then that new money kicks in. But you know, you just want to make sure that you're not putting yourself in a bind. And it would make sense to get the Gonzalez extension done this off season, the May extension done next off season, two big pieces of. of business over with. But when you look at the spending, again, 21, 24, 25, you look at what they've done so far

Starting point is 00:28:38 this offseason. The Patriots are not cheap. We could talk about what it was, again, during the Brady years when Brady was taking, you know, good contracts for the team and all of that, and they were drafting well, so they were replenishing well. All of that stuff is in the past. We're talking about right now. We're talking about the last five or six years.

Starting point is 00:28:59 The Patriots have spent money the last five or six years. And the Patriots have spent significant money post Belichick. Now, of course, yes, the Patriots spend, you know, cash to the cap. And Greg Bedard does great work on that and incredibly detailed. I'm not going to glaze your eyes over. But the idea is they try to level out the cash to the cap over three-year periods. And drafts matter. Drafts matter.

Starting point is 00:29:26 If you draft well, you extend your players, you spend a little bit more money. but you also get younger and you keep that system moving, draft and develop. But as far as this offseason, again, I gave it the numbers. Patriots are in the top 10 easily in top five and three categories. If you were wondering, that conversation comes up at the bar. That wraps up this edition of Lockdown. Patriots, thank you for making us your first listen and for being an everydayer. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio.

Starting point is 00:29:56 And don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. hit that like button and subscribe. And oh yeah, you can join the Every Day Air Club now with Code March and get your first month free. If you sign up before the NCAA tips off that tournament, you can compete against yours truly. And our men's and women's bracket pools on Discord, the winner in each will get $100 in lockdown merchandise. Head to Lockdown Patriots.com or check the link in the show notes to learn more. Have a great day and we will see you tomorrow.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Seismic: Drake Maye Drives New England Patriots' Free Agent Success

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