Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Showdown Drake Maye Patriots Ready For Battle Versus Chargers

Starting point is 00:00:00 This Sunday night, it's Chargers, it's Patriots. It's the wild card playoff round, and it's time to dive deep into a preview and predict the winner. This is Locked-on Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots. Your daily New England Patriots podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's happening in? I am your host, Nick Cattos, born and raised in New England.

Starting point is 00:00:31 Been covering the paths for the past 16 years. also the co-host of the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with you, guest at Nick Cattels and a sports radio veteran. Welcome to Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. And as a reminder, we're going to go live on Sunday night following Chargers Patriots on YouTube. Catch us then as well. On today's show, though, we're going to do a deep dive preview. We give you the name of a Patriots X factor on Sunday night before predicting the final score. Also, find out how the Pat's defense can get the best of this Chargers offense.

Starting point is 00:01:08 But first, Drake May versus L.A.'s defense is all about strength versus strength. Today's episode is brought to by Fandul. Before tip off, check the Fandul app and see what's dropping during NBA happy hour every Friday from 6 to 730 p.m. Eastern. L.A.'s defense is impressive. They've got tons of talent. They have a very talented pass rush. They have linebackers that are fast and played downhill. They have a safety in Derwin James, who is a fantastic chess piece, a la Kyle Hamilton from Baltimore, and their defensive secondary is more than capable of playing good coverage. So what will the Patriots do? What will Drake May do? Let's start with the quarterback. Let's start with this Drake May versus Jesse Minter matchup. Jesse Minter is the defensive coordinator of the Chargers.

Starting point is 00:01:58 And what Jesse Minter likes to do is he likes to change the looks, pre-snap, post-snap. He likes to disguise his coverages. And so Drake May has to be ready for that. I think he will be. But it's going to be a challenge. Now, when I talk about strength versus strength, the chargers, they deploy zone coverage at the fifth highest rate in the NFL. They play zone coverage more than 80% of the time. Now, here's the thing.

Starting point is 00:02:27 They play a ton of zone coverage, and Drake May has been fantastic against zone coverage. He is first an EPA per dropback against zone. He is first in passerating against zone. Stefan Diggs has made this season a personal attack on zone coverage. Stefan Diggs is fantastic finding the soft spots in zone coverage. So the Chargers love playing zone. Drake May loves playing against Zone. Strength versus Strength.

Starting point is 00:03:02 Greg Bedard wrote at BSJ this week that the Chargers, they play in two shell, so two high safeties, at the eighth highest rate in the NFL from weeks 14 through 17. So over the final month of the season, before that Broncos game where they sat starters, over the final month of the season, the Chargers played a lot of zone, and they played a lot of too high safety.

Starting point is 00:03:27 Again, that's something that Drake May has seen, and he has played well against. He has seen a ton of two-shell safety work this football season. And when you look at what Drake May does, the strength is not just against zone coverage, right? One of the superpowers of Drake May and one of the superpowers of this offense this season has been the deep ball.

Starting point is 00:03:51 And there's an opportunity for the Patriots to take advantage of the Chargers defense and secondary by throwing the football deep. Evan Lazzar wrote at Patriots.com, the Pats have produced a 20-yard pass play on 13.6% of Drake May's dropbacks. That's number one in the NFL. Meanwhile, Bill Barnwell of ESPN wrote that Drake May is number one in total QBR on deep passes. Now, why is that a big deal? And why can the Patriots take advantage of the Chargers' defense?

Starting point is 00:04:23 Well, the Chargers versus short and intermediate passes are a top five defense. But when you look at what they do against deep passes, they're a middle of the pack defense. Bill Barnwell wrote their 16th in EPA per play against deep passes. Evan the czar points out that Cam Hart, defensive back of the Chargers, he has allowed a 45.5% catch rate on deep targets. So when you throw the football deep against Cam Hart, you pretty much, for all intents and purposes, have a 50, shot of completing that pass. You'll take that every day of the week and twice on Sunday. See what I did?

Starting point is 00:04:59 So you attack them deep and you attack Cam Hart deep. Now, the Chargers are going to get their top cornerback, Dante Jackson back. He's expected to play. But I expect the Patriots to test this Chargers defense deep. And I expect them to be capable of completing at least one, if not two, maybe even three of those deep passes. And when you talk about big plays in playoff games, that could change the entire demeanor of the game.

Starting point is 00:05:31 And it can certainly change your postseason trajectory. So Drake May against zone, Drake May attacking the Chargers zone with deep passes and especially trying to attack Cam Hart. Something else we got to talk about, Patriots offense versus Chargers defense. The pass protection. The pass protection has to be great.

Starting point is 00:05:52 This pass rush is really difficult from the Chargers. You can look at Tuli Tuli Polo, he has 70 pressures, and he lines up against right tackle and left tackle. You've got to know where he's going to be, and you've got to have your protection plan set. Kaleo Mack, he's an oldie but a goodie. He still has some juice left. Adafay Owe, who was traded from the Ravens to the Chargers this season.

Starting point is 00:06:22 He is 10th in past rush win-range. As a matter of fact, the Chargers are one of only 13 teams in the league that have 40-plus sacks on the season. They can get after it. And Jesse Minter, again, the defensive coordinator, he will load up on third down. He'll get aggressive on third down. Now, the pass protection, here's the good news for the Patriots.

Starting point is 00:06:48 Ben Baldwin posted this week, the Patriots, they finished sixth in the NFL in complying. closet pass protection ratings. When you look at three different metrics, the Patriots, were ranked sixth overall in pass protection. Unbelievable from a team that was always 30th to like 32nd in 2024. Evan Lazar notes that, you know, you look at the chargers, they have the fourth highest unblocked rusher rate, 9.2%.

Starting point is 00:07:19 Again, those are the games they're going to play up front. Those are the pre-snap, post-nap disguises that they run. run, all these different elements. You'll see a free rusher way too often when you're playing against the Chargers. The Patriots cannot allow that to happen. You can't allow guys to have free runs against Drake May all night long. That'll be a disaster. Now, the charges are 14th in pressure rate.

Starting point is 00:07:43 They're 18th in time to pressure, but they've been better this past month. One of my biggest questions is, how much will the Chargers actually blitz? They don't blitz a ton. They're 30th in the NFL and Blitz, and Drake May is the best quarterback when you look at QBR versus the blitz. So the charges don't blitz a ton. Drake May is great against the blitz. How aggressive will Jesse Minter be?

Starting point is 00:08:07 Let's note that Jesse Minter got very aggressive after C.J. Stroud of the Houston Texans a couple of weeks ago came out and not only through one deep touchdown pass, but two deep touchdown passes right out of the gates. So if Drake May does find the deep ball and the Patriots' offense, gets aggressive early, don't be shocked if Jesse Minter responds by getting more aggressive with the Chargers defense. Final thing I want to talk about regarding the Patriots offense against the L.A. defense. The Patriots and their heavy run personnel, they need to win up front with this heavy personnel, with this jumbo personnel, the six offensive linemen. Josh McDaniels has been

Starting point is 00:08:48 leaning into this since the by week, going six offensive line against Miami, seven. 17 snaps, according to Evan Lizar. And they were very successful in doing so. I mentioned this during the crossover. Taylor Kiles of CLNS. Had this note, Ramandre Stevenson leads the NFL with 7.8 yards per carry since week 13. Trayvion Henderson is 8th at 5.7 yards per carry. When you're looking at those jumbo sets, man, they're working.

Starting point is 00:09:21 Drake May said to the media this week that those jumbo sets also says, up the play action because you get bigger defenders on the field. You go with six offensive linemen. The defense gets big and you respond by throwing against the bigger defenders and using a lot of play action. And if you were wondering, according to Evan Lizarre, the LA charges are 23rd in the NFL against duo runs, which again, you're thinking duo downhill, duo was double teaming guys, double teaming dudes going downhill, six off offensive lineman, the Chargers 23rd in the league against duo runs, and their 21st in EPA against play action. So you can see this game plan. You can see this game plan running downhill,

Starting point is 00:10:09 duo jumbo sets for the run game. That sets up your play action. Your play action sets you up to throw the ball deep down the seams and take some deep shots while also attacking the zone with Stefan Diggs. That, I think, is the recipe. Protect your quarterback. Run downhill, run duo, play your big personnel on those jumbo sets, get those big defenders on the field, and start chucking it with the play action. Patriots will have opportunities. Chargers defense, again, very, very good, very talented, but there will be opportunities on Sunday night. And all you need is a couple of big plays and you can win this football game. All right, the path to a victory would be made easier

Starting point is 00:10:59 if the paths can prove they can do something they haven't done mostly all year. That's up next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. What if sports were traded like markets? Now you can put your sports IQ to work in real time with Robin Hood prediction markets.

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Starting point is 00:12:36 Don't forget to like. Don't forget to throw your comments in. I always want to know what your prediction is for the upcoming game. And of course, that means Sunday night. What do you think happens? So don't forget to like. Don't forget to comment. And don't forget to subscribe.

Starting point is 00:12:49 Justin Herbert has been awesome this year, especially considering the circumstances. His offensive line has been trash. He's been injured with a fractured non-throwing hand. His left hand been fractured since I think it was like week 13. He got hurt. He's got a big arm. Justin Herbert is very athletic. He's actually number two in rushing yards at the quarterback position this season.

Starting point is 00:13:13 So he can absolutely kill you with his legs, extending plays, scramble plays, sprinkling a designed run. Justin Herbert is a handful. Now, of course, a lot of people I know have been looking at Justin Herbert in the postseason. He's Owen 2, and he has completed only 52% of his passes, has two touchdowns and four interceptions. Now, a lot of that, it's a small sample size. He's played two games. A lot of that is that Houston game.

Starting point is 00:13:42 I mean, it was just all four of those interceptions was against Houston in last year's playoffs. But they were not all on him. And you can listen to the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast that he and I, recorded earlier on Thursday, and he will break down that Texans game and tell you why that game wasn't all on Justin Herbert. But he has certainly not been the same level of quarterback in the postseason as he has been in the regular season, no matter what the reasons are. He has not been the same guy. So defensively, what do you do here? The most critical aspect of this matchup, Patriots defense against the Chargers offense, is getting home on Justin Herbert.

Starting point is 00:14:24 with four pass rushers, getting to the quarterback without having to rush anybody extra. Bill Barnwell wrote at ESPN that this Chargers offense was 26th in EPA per play without Joe Alt. As soon as Joe Alt went down, this offense crashed. It crashed and it burned for the most part. Now they began the season without Rishon Slater, their left tackle. He got hurt. Joe Alt moved to the left tackle. Joe Alt got hurt. So your two starting tackles, Gonzo, done.

Starting point is 00:15:01 Now, left tackle, Jamari Sawyer is practicing. He's expected to play, according to offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Their center, Bradley Bozeman, is also practicing. That will help, but it won't solve all the problems. There's still not a good offensive line. Can Harold Landry give the rush some juice after sitting out the last couple of weeks? Reading comments from Mike Smith, outside linebackers coach, pass rush specialist for the Patriots.

Starting point is 00:15:26 You know, he talked about Harold Landry and said he's running around at practice. Looks like a different guy. Now, of course, maybe that's trying to set up the Chargers. I'll have to see it to believe it. But Harold Landry took a couple of weeks off. There's no doubt that that was in preparation for the playoffs. And if Harold Landry looks like the Harold Landry from the first month of the season, that will help you out significantly in this matchup.

Starting point is 00:15:50 The Chargers, when I say their offensive line stinks, I mean their offensive line stinks out loud. They're 32nd. Last time I checked, there are 32nd in past block win rate. 21st in time to pressure. I'll bring up Ben Baldwin's composite pass pro ratings again. Guess where L.A. is? They're 32nd. We're talking all-time bad.

Starting point is 00:16:14 Nobody this season. No offensive line has been close to a. as bad as the Chargers has been. And that's because, again, of the injuries at tackle. And their interior offensive line also has not been very good. So you've got to get home. Justin Herbert, number two in QBR against the Blitz. Remember, Drake May is number one.

Starting point is 00:16:37 Right behind Drake May, QBR versus the blitz, is Justin Herbert at number two. Now, the paths don't blitz a ton. Their blitz rate is 19th in the league. When you look at Justin Herbert, what's interesting is he is great against the blitz, but he's not great against pressure. Justin Herbert is 18th in EPA, according to Evan Lazar. He's 18th in EPA against pressure. So when you can get to him with four pass rushers,

Starting point is 00:17:10 he is not nearly as effective as he is against the blitz or when you're not getting pressure. Now, of course, the case of, you know, whether or not a quarterback plays great when you get four-man pass rush, that's across the board. Pretty much every quarterback struggles more when you can get a four-man pass rush. I don't need to go back to 07 for all of us to understand that. But again, Herbert, he drops down to 18th in EPA when you get pressure on him by only sending four. Justin Herbert has also fumbled the football five times since his injury. And according to next-gen stats, Christian Barmore and Milton Williams, when you look at the highest pressure rate among defensive tackles this season,

Starting point is 00:18:01 Christian Barmore was number two, Milton Williams was number three. So Harold Landry, Caleb on Chase on, if they've got some juice on the edge against those backup tackles, Milton Williams, Christian Bormore on the inside creating pressure. If you can get pressure from those four guys consistently on Sunday night, it is going to be a very long night for Justin Herbert and a very long night for this Chargers offense. One more thing, the Chargers struggle big time against disguised blitzes and stunts. So look for Zach Corr, look for this Patriots defense to throw a lot of stunts and a lot of disguised blitzes, some creepers, some simulated pressure.

Starting point is 00:18:43 Offensive line for L.A.'s had a tough time with that. Los Angeles's wide receivers, the charges. You've got Quentin Johnson, Ladd-McConkey, Keenan Allen, Trey Harris. I wonder if the Patriots are going to play man coverage. I'm sure they'll play some of it. But how much will they play man coverage? They played 23% man coverage against Miami last weekend. They have the ability to do it even more.

Starting point is 00:19:06 We've talked about it all season with Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis, Marcus Jones, you have the capability of a defense to play man coverage. You can play Marcus Jones against Ladd-McConkie. You can play Carlton Davis against Keenan Allen. You can play Christian Gonzalez against Quentin Johnston or Trey Harris, whether whoever is in the game at the time. Now, NFL ref stats on Twitter, a great follow. Mention on Twitter that Ron Torbert, who's going to be the head official,

Starting point is 00:19:35 the head referee on Sunday night, is a let him play referee. his crew is last in the NFL and calling defensive pass interference. So Carlton Davis, who's handsy and aggressive and physical, this might be the perfect officiating crew for him to do some great work on the outside. From weeks 14 to 17, according to Greg Bedard, the Chargers wide receivers were 28th in the NFL in target separation. They don't get guys that separate consistently. You have corners that can cover them man to man.

Starting point is 00:20:07 you want to make sure you can get home with a four-man pass rush. You can do different things in the second level if you do that. I just feel like the Patriots, if they play more man coverage on Sunday night, they might be the perfect type of secondary to limit those receivers of the Chargers and slow down Justin Herbert. Could be. Finally, can the Chargers run the football? They're 20th in Rush DVOA.

Starting point is 00:20:37 and that's with Justin Herbert and his ability to run. Again, the offensive line's bad. They're 31st in the league and run block win rate. The Patriots, of course, they're getting Robert Spillane back this week. Milton Williams is already back. Kyrie's Tonga did not practice two days in a row. He's probably going to be out. But that's what you're looking for,

Starting point is 00:20:58 this Patriots defense against the Chargers offense. Can you get four pass rushers home consistently? How much man coverage are you going to? to play. And can you limit LA's run game? It hasn't necessarily been great this year. If you can accomplish those three things, the Chargers will have a difficult time moving the football and finishing drives. Important notes in a score prediction next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. The Wild Card Round is here, and Fandul is officially in playoff mode. Every game,

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Starting point is 00:23:43 We're going live on Sunday night following Chargers Patriots. Join us on YouTube. Should be a lot of fun, hopefully. All right. Some other important aspects of this game in my prediction. Number one, weather, weather, weather, 26 degrees with some wind gusts. Now, the Chargers actually played a very, very cold weather game against Kansas City in week 15. It was sub-zero temps. And when you look at what the Chargers offense did against the Chiefs in week 15, again, KC's defense better than the Patriots defense,

Starting point is 00:24:15 but the Chargers won the game 16-13. So far from a shootout. Chargers had 295 total yards, 201 passing, 94 rushing. Justin Herbert was 19 for 29, 210 yards, a touchdown, and a pick. He actually fractured his hand two weeks earlier, week 13, as I mentioned earlier, in this podcast. Amari and Hampton was the leading rusher for the Chargers in that game.

Starting point is 00:24:40 15 carries, 61 yards, so just over four yards of carry. We don't know if Amari and Hampton is going to play in this game on Sunday night. He got out there and practiced a little bit on Thursday. Sounds like he is limited. He's got an ankle issue. So will he play? If he plays, how healthy is he? How much will he play?

Starting point is 00:24:58 We'll see. In that game against the Chiefs, sub-zero temps, Arronday Gadsden was the Chargers' leading receipts. receiver. He had four catches for 61 yards. I will know, in fairness to the Chargers, Quentin Johnston did not play in that game against the Chiefs in week 13. So they have won a game in very, very cold weather. They're capable of it. I don't know if they're capable of having an offensive explosion in a cold weather game. Let's look at the coaching matchup. I think this is intriguing because I think it's so, so tight. Offensively, I would go with Josh McDaniels over

Starting point is 00:25:35 Greg Roman. I think Josh McDaniels. I think Josh McDaniels. is the better offensive coordinator. Defensively, I would go with Jesse Minter over Zach Corr. Zach Corr, obviously, was not supposed to be the play caller defensively, but it is what it is. That's what he's doing. And I would certainly take Jesse Minter over Zach Corp. Head coach, and I actually call it a wash.

Starting point is 00:25:57 Jim Harbaugh's terrific. He's gone to a Super Bowl, won a national championship. Sketchy details aside. Jim Harbaugh is one of the better coaches in football. and I think Mike Vrable is one of the better coaches in football. So when you look at it overall with these staffs, again, offensively, I go Patriots, defensively, I go Chargers, head coach wash overall to me, it's pretty much a wash.

Starting point is 00:26:21 Third down battle. Keep an eye on third down. The Chargers have the third best third down offense in the league. Now, they don't have these big, huge explosive plays consistently, but they will chop you down. You know, they'll get five to six yards. yards, then they'll be dealing with the second and medium, and they'll figure it out to a third and short.

Starting point is 00:26:42 Third best, third down offense in football. Meanwhile, the Patriots, if they want to extend drives, they've got to get their short-yardage rushing going. Evan Lazare noted this week, the Patriots are 28th in the NFL in short-yardage rushing. Now, I wonder if Josh McDaniels has been waiting. I've been talking about this since really the buy week. Has Josh McDaniels been waiting? We saw a little bit of Drake May, the designed runs against the Buffalo

Starting point is 00:27:13 bills the week after the buy. And it worked. It worked. Drake May had two rushing touchdowns early in that game. Will we see Drake May in the designed quarterback runs more now that were in the playoffs than we saw during the regular season? I would not be surprised, and that would help the Patriots in short yardage. Chargers, five and three on the road.

Starting point is 00:27:41 Two of those three losses were actually against East Coast teams. They lost to the Giants, and they got absolutely smoked by the Jaguars. So two of the three road losses for the Chargers, East Coast. Last time I checked, we're on the East Coast. Patriots, look at the Red Zone. We've been talking about it all year. Third worst red zone defense and football. Now, that's better for this game going in than it's been over the past few weeks when the Patriots were dead last in red zone defense.

Starting point is 00:28:14 But their red zone defense has not been good enough. Here's a glimmer of hope, though. The Chargers red zone offense has been atrocious all year. The Chargers red zone offense is 29th in the league. So you've got, you know, weakness versus weakness. Chargers red zone, offense is bad. Patriots red zone defense has been bad. Which one steps up?

Starting point is 00:28:39 Which one steps up? That could be the difference in the game. Hunter Henry, he could be an X factor. And we usually say he's an X factor for this offense, but especially in this matchup. Now, Arronday Gadsden, for the Chargers, he also could be an X factor. He's got some problem with drops.

Starting point is 00:28:56 But I do think he could be a matchup headache for the Patriots. Do you put Craig Woodson on him? What do you do against Arronday Gadsden? You can't allow him to get going and give Justin Herbert an easy target to hurt you on Sunday night. So Arronday Gadsden for the Chargers, Hunter Henry for the Patriots. You know, when you look at DVOA against tight ends, the Chargers 27th in the league over the final month or so. So they've had some struggles against tight ends, which means Hunter Henry on third down, Hunter Henry in the red zone

Starting point is 00:29:30 Hunter Henry down the seam. This might end up being a game where each side has a tight end make some big plays. All right, so here's my prediction. I broke it down offensively. I broke it down defensively. I just gave you other important aspects of this game.

Starting point is 00:29:48 I think this is going to be a tight game. I do not think the Patriots are going to run away with it. I don't think the Chargers will run away with it. This is going to be a tight game. I'm going with the Patriots. Home field advantage. I think their offensive line is better. I think they'll be able to run the football

Starting point is 00:30:05 at least a little bit better than the Chargers. So I'm going with the Patriots. A big time physical matchup. We talked about it on the crossover. The Patriots have to be physical. From the first second to the last second of this game on Sunday night, you've got to be physical against the Chargers because they are going to be physical.

Starting point is 00:30:24 They're big. They're violent. They're physical. you've got to match that level. But the Patriots are to home. And I think the crowd is going to be elevated. And I think the Patriots win. I've got Pat's 23, Chargers 17.

Starting point is 00:30:37 That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen. And for being an everydayer. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C Radio. And don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Hit that like button and subscribe. And if you're looking for a gift for someone, make it easy. Check out the Everydayer Club.

Starting point is 00:30:55 Add free episodes of this show. exclusive Discord, server access, and more. Subscriptions can be gifted through lockdownpatriots.supercast.com. Have a great day. And don't forget, we're going live on Sunday night. We'll talk to you then. We'll see if they can get it done.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Showdown Drake Maye Patriots Ready For Battle Versus Chargers

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