Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Showdown: Patriots Face Ultimate Test Against Undefeated Bills

Episode Date: October 2, 2025

Can the Patriots overcome the Bills' home-field advantage? Nick Cattles breaks down the crucial matchup between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills, analyzing key players and strategies that co...uld decide the game's outcome.Cattles examines the Patriots' challenges in Buffalo's hostile environment, emphasizing the importance of a strong start. He dissects the Bills' potent run game, led by the "incredibly patient" James Cook, and explores strategies to contain Josh Allen's dual-threat capabilities. The discussion shifts to the Patriots' offensive approach, highlighting Drake Maye's potential impact and opportunities against Buffalo's defense.Will the Patriots' game plan neutralize the Bills' strengths? Tune in for expert analysis and a bold prediction for this prime-time showdown.Follow & Subscribe on all Podcast platforms…🎧 https://link.chtbl.com/LOPatriots?sid=YouTubeLocked On NFL League-Wide: Every Team, Fantasy, Draft & More🎧 https://linktr.ee/LockedOnNFL#patriots #newenglandpatriotsSupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!5-Hour ENERGYEnough with boring, flavorless caffeine, it’s time to give your caffeine a flavor upgrade with 5-hour ENERGY®️ shots. Get the favorites you love or be bold and try something new in-store and online at https://www.5hourENERGY.com or Amazon today.PelotonLet yourself run, lift, flex, and push forward. Explore the new Peloton Cross Training Tread+ today at https://www.onepeloton.com.RugietReady to level up your confidence in the bedroom? Head to https://www.rugiet.com and use promo code LOCKEDONNFL for 15% off your first order.Monarch MoneyTake control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use code LOCKEDONNFL at https://monarchmoney.com/lockedonnfl for 50% off your first year.SquareTo learn more, go support your favorite neighborhood spot and see what Square has been up to in your neck of the woods. And then if you have extra time, check out https://square.com/go/lockedonnfl.PrizePicksDownload the PrizePicks app today and use code LOCKEDONNFL to get $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup.Click Here: https://prizepicks.onelink.me/LME0/LOCKEDONNFLGametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONNFL for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Download Gametime today. What time is it? Gametime.FanDuelRight now, new customers can bet just FIVE dollars and if your bet wins—you’ll get THREE HUNDRED dollars in bonus bets to use across the app.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)

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Starting point is 00:00:00 The Pats face their stiffest tests yet on the road in prime time against the undefeated Buffalo Bills. It's time for our deep dive breakdown. This is Locked-on Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcasts network, your team every day. And I am your host, Nick. Born and Raised in New England, been covering the Patriots for the past 16 years. Also co-host of the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattels and a sports talk show host veteran. Coming up, we'll give you the keys to Drake May and the offense, continuing their hot offensive run.
Starting point is 00:00:46 Before that, we'll tell you who the Patriots defense has to stop and why it's not who you might think it is. But first, the Pats challenge starts before the ball is even kicked off on Sunday night. We appreciate you joining the show, making us your first listen. for being an everydayer. Reminder that you can follow our show and hear new episodes, add free daily on Amazon music. The Lockdown Patriots podcast, a proud part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. And today's episode is brought to by Mazda. Like our players, Mazda sweats every detail because when you make every move count, pulling off the unexpected is only the beginning. Stay tuned later for highlights in this week's
Starting point is 00:01:24 moving the game forward, Mazda move and B move. Before we get to the X's and O's, And we break down this game on each side of the football. Before we get to that breakdown, the biggest question for me walking into Sunday night is whether or not the Patriots are going to be able to handle the atmosphere in Buffalo. Will the Pats be overwhelmed by the environment, by what's going to play out on Sunday night? Let's appreciate what Buffalo has done. The Buffalo Bills have won 14 straight games at Highmark. A 14 game win streak that Mike Vrable this week made it a point to bring up to the media.
Starting point is 00:02:09 14 straight wins. They take advantage of the home field, unlike what we've seen from the Patriots over the past few years. Thankfully, we saw a win last weekend at Gillette. But Highmark has been a very, very difficult place to play for everybody who's traveled there. The Buffalo Bills are a Super Bowl contender. Unequivocally, one of the best teams in football, I would say right now you'd put money down on them as the best team in the AFC. This is a different level of team that the Patriots have played. The Buffalo Bills are not the Raiders. They're not the Dolphins. They're not the Steelers. And they're certainly not the
Starting point is 00:02:50 Carolina Panthers. This is a different level of team. Patriots have played a lot of teams at the bottom of the league so far. Yes, Pittsburgh is three and one, but I'm not necessarily buying into that record, given the way they've actually played. This is a different level of competitor. This is a much more difficult measuring stick for the Patriots on Sunday night. Josh Allen is last year's MVP. By far the best quarterback that you have faced this season, and it's not even close. I would not come close to comparing a Josh Allen. to Gino Smith or Tua Tua of Ioloa or Aaron Modgers and certainly not Bryce Young as we saw last weekend. Difficult place to play.
Starting point is 00:03:38 Much better team than you've played up to this point. Much better quarterback than you have played up to this point. Oh, and it's Sunday night football. Primetime NBC. The world is watching. Will the Patriots be overwhelmed by what they have to feel? face before the ball is even kicked off on Sunday night. I will tell you this, the Patriots cannot afford to start slow, and that has been an issue
Starting point is 00:04:05 from week one through even last weekend against Carolina. We might all forget about how the game started, but even in that absolute butt-wipping of Carolina last weekend, don't get it twisted. The Patriots started off slow. The defense was abominable on that first try. Carolina's offense averaged 10 yards per play on that first drive of the game. The offense for the Patriots went three and out, including one of Drake May's worst throws of the day on that third down to Kashan booty, high and behind booty,
Starting point is 00:04:38 almost turning into an interception. The Patriots cannot go out there on Sunday night and look completely unprepared to play football because if they do, they're going to run into trouble immediately. And the last thing that I want to see that you want to see is the Patriots get swallowed up in the first eight minutes of this game and fall apart at the seams. They have to be ready to play. They have to be ready for this challenge. They have to be ready for the environment, the atmosphere, and the prime time lights.
Starting point is 00:05:09 Because if they're not, they're going to get smoked. It's as simple as that. I don't care what happened the first month of this season. If they are not ready to play and they are not ready for prime time, they are going to get smoked by the Buffalo Bills. And one big part of this of whether or not the Patriots are going to be ready to play on Sunday night is the youth of this team. There are a lot of young players that are playing key positions and key roles for the Patriots this year. The left side of the offensive line, we'll get to Jared Wilson a little bit later, whether or not he's going to play.
Starting point is 00:05:43 But if Jared Wilson plays on Sunday night, you've got a rookie left tackle, a rookie left guard. protecting the blind side of your franchise quarterback in a chaotic, noisy high mark. And that is going to be the biggest challenge that they faced. Let's not forget, three of the first four games the Patriots have played have been at home. You know, the offensive line, the rookie offensive lineman on the left side, they haven't had to deal with crazy noise. Miami doesn't get loud. Miami is actually mostly quiet.
Starting point is 00:06:16 It. The biggest challenge playing in Miami is the heat, the humidity. This is going to be the loudest, most ruckus atmosphere that Will Campbell or Jared Wilson has had to handle at the NFL level. Now, of course, they both played in the SEC. They've played in gigantic stadiums before. They've played in very noisy environments before. But this is the first time at the NFL level that they will be challenged with the noise. in the chaos. How about Craig Woodson playing 99% of the defensive snaps last week against Carolina? Rookie, safety, going against Josh Allen. Tough challenge. Is he going to be ready
Starting point is 00:07:02 for it? Trabian Henderson, yeah, he won a national title last year for Ohio State. But he's off to a slow start. Game has been pretty fast on him. I think that he started to turn a little bit of a corner last weekend. but this is going to be a sizable obstacle for Trayvion Henderson. Somebody who has had trouble in past protection and handling blitzes. Will he get caught up in the hysteria? And here's one that we don't think about, but we should absolutely think about Andy Boragallis, your rookie kicker.
Starting point is 00:07:38 Now, he has settled down. He has been much better over the past couple of weeks than he was early in this season. But on the road, in Buffalo, if there is a high leverage kick to be made, is Andy Boragallis ready to make that kick? Now, fortunately for Andy Boragallis, the weather looks like it's going to be absolutely beautiful in Buffalo on Sunday night. It's like a summer weekend in Buffalo. The highs during the day, going to be 80 degrees. There's not going to be any wind. There's not going to be any kind of rain. So the weather should be perfect for Andy Boregallis and everybody else on that field on
Starting point is 00:08:18 Sunday night. That should help. What you can't do if you're the Patriots is just invite an avalanche early. If you invite that avalanche early, it's going to get out of control. Breathe. Breathe and play clean football. I don't want to see a first quarter where everybody looks disheveled. And you've got a ton of penalties, you've got flags being thrown all over the place, guys looking like they're unready to play.
Starting point is 00:08:49 Breathe and play clean because if you're incapable of doing that on Sunday night, it could get ugly. All right. It's going to be a monumental challenge to slow this Buffalo Bill's offense. And it starts with someone not named Josh Allen. That's next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team. every day. This episode is brought to by Square, your favorite neighborhood spots run on square.
Starting point is 00:09:19 There are certain businesses that make the neighborhood the neighborhood. These are the places that become an extension of home, whether it's the sports bar dedicated to your team's fan base, the spot with the best wings in town for game day, or that beloved local chain that's been rooted in your community for years. These businesses are what bring people together. When neighborhood businesses thrive, the whole neighborhood. thrives. I mean, there's a local spot in your neighborhood right now you're thinking about, as I say what I'm saying, right? You know the kind of spot, been the heart of your community for
Starting point is 00:09:49 years, the kind of place where you walk in and everyone knows your name. Sports are something that brings neighborhoods together, whether it's gathering for game day rituals, celebrating with the best wings in town, or just being part of a fan base that calls this place home. Square is a proud partner of more than 4 million neighborhood businesses around the world. You can go to square.com slash go slash lockdown NFL to learn more. But before you do, go support your favorite neighborhood spot. This episode is brought to by Mazda's moving the game forward. For those who believe it's not just about playing the game, it's about redefining it.
Starting point is 00:10:24 These are the moments that do more than put points on the board. They move crowds, they move culture, and keep moving the game forward. And this week's moment that moved the game forward is the 88-yard punt return for a touchdown by Marcus Jones that swung the momentum towards the Patriots, who eventually went on cruise control for the second half in the game against Carolina. Not only did Jones make a house call, he also had a 61-yard punt return in the second quarter and a 19-yarder in the third quarter. On the day, Jones made Patriots history by compiling 167 punt return yards.
Starting point is 00:10:57 And he was also named the AFC Special Teams Player of the Week. Jones allowed the Pats to move the game forward on multiple occasions with his electrifying returns. And when you follow what moves you, the unexpected is only the beginning. And just like there's more to every highlight, there's more to a Mazda vehicle. Mazda, move and B move. We will get to Josh Allen in a little bit. Everybody knows about Josh Allen. We've seen Josh Allen a billion times through his NFL career because of the divisional matchups twice a year, right?
Starting point is 00:11:33 I actually want to start with the Buffalo Bills run game. because I believe this bill's offense starts with the run. And it starts with plenty of personnel packages. You'll see 12 personnel with two tight ends. You'll see 22 personnel, a halfback, full back, and two tight ends. And not only do you see a lot of tight end play out there. You also see an offensive line that is big. Phil Perry transcribed Milton Williams in the locker room on Wednesday.
Starting point is 00:12:05 And Williams said this about the Bill's O line. quote, they kind of remind me of when I was in Philly last year, everybody, just huge humans. Now, I want to stop there for a second. In full transparency, I am recording this episode, late afternoon, early evening on Thursday, and Milton Williams did not practice on Thursday. It is an ankle injury. Obviously, if Milton Williams is not in this football game on Sunday night, that would be a huge blow to the Patriots defense with how well,
Starting point is 00:12:37 Milton Williams has played and because of this specific matchup, which I'll get to a little bit later. Now, Ian Rappaport of the NFL network reported that the Milton Williams injury does not sound like a significant injury, but that doesn't mean much as far as this weekend's game. You can have an injury that's not quote unquote significant, but it's serious enough to keep you out a week, two weeks, three weeks. So we'll see what happens with Milton Williams over the next 24 to 48 hours. But this Bill's run game is the best run game in the NFL. They are third in success rate at 48.1%. And check this out. The Buffalo Bills run game is first in Rush EPA. Their Rush EPA is plus 22.2. The closest team to the bills in Rush EPA efficiency, right?
Starting point is 00:13:30 the closest team is Washington at plus 12.3, almost 10 points behind Buffalo. And it's all about James Cook. James Cook is a beast. He's incredibly patient when he runs the football. He will wait behind his line of scrimmage and see what's going on. And then he'll find somewhere to cut and slice and dice you. And the next thing you know, you give up a seven-yard gain when you thought you had him stop at that line of scrimmage. So he's very patient.
Starting point is 00:14:00 when he needs to be he has great vision he finds the slightest of holes hits those holes and does damage he's dangerous when it comes to cutbacks he can bounce it out to the outside which is something that this Patriots defense has had an issue with especially lately so you're going to watch out for the cutbacks you're going to watch out for him bouncing inside runs to the outside he is very very slithery and he has incredible contact balance the Buffalo Bill are 15th, 15th in yards before contact per attempt. So they're right in the middle of the pack when it comes to yards before you get hit. So how are they getting all of this run game? How are they getting all of these yards? It's because of James Cook. His individual effort
Starting point is 00:14:48 is outstanding. He is second in the NFL in yards after contact at the running back position with 312 yards. He is number two in the NFL at running. running back for rushing yards over expected at plus 94. James Cook has the second most. He is tied for the second most 10 plus yard runs in the league this year. He has had 10 of those. He could single handedly destroy this game for the Patriots on Sunday night. I cannot possibly describe with any kind of justice how important James Cook is.
Starting point is 00:15:25 I'm trying. But when you watch it, I watched that game last weekend against the Saints. I watched it earlier this week, and I'm telling you, James Cook was the guy, and he helped this offense every time when he was going, the bill's offense was going. He is pivotal to the operation. Now, one question I have is whether or not the bills are going to run at the edges of the Patriots. This has been a problem for the Patriots.
Starting point is 00:15:51 They have not been consistently good at containing the edge against the run. And what's interesting here is that Buffalo, they are. are 28th in the NFL when it comes to running outside the tackles. When you look at run rate outside the tackles, the bills are 28th. So they don't call a lot of designed runs outside the tackles to attack the edges. Teams have actually done that a lot to the Patriots because they see the weakness. Teams have run outside the tackles versus the Patriots at the sixth highest rate. So you've got a defense where teams are looking at it and saying,
Starting point is 00:16:29 we've got to attack the edges. Buffalo has a great run game, but they haven't majored in attacking the edges. Doesn't mean that they can't do it. There have certainly been examples of them doing it. It's just a lot of the play calls from Joe Brady, their offensive coordinator with this run game, has been in between the tackles going inside. And that's why I think it's a crucial matchup for the interior defensive line. Because if Buffalo is going to try to establish some of that run game on the inside, you've got to be ready. The bills run inside the tackles at the 12th highest rate. So if Milton Williams is not out there, that's going to hurt.
Starting point is 00:17:08 That means Kyrie's Tonga has to really step up on Sunday night. The bills, because I would say mostly because of James Cook in his lateral movement, in his vision, his ability to bounce out, cut back. The bills have the seventh lowest stuff rate in football. The Patriots, meanwhile, their defensive line overall has done a good. good job, especially on the interior. The Patriots are the best team in football when it comes to run stuff rate, not giving up anything in the run game.
Starting point is 00:17:38 So you've got strength versus strength. Buffalo Bills right tackle Spencer Brown. He's limited at practice. He missed last week. If he missed this week, that would be a big loss for the bills. Tight end Jackson Hawes was also limited at practice. He has been a revelation blocking at tight end for Buffalo. So if he was to miss the game or if he's banged,
Starting point is 00:17:59 up. That could also impact the run game. But the Patriots, the linebackers, the defensive backs, they need to tackle. James Cook is one of the most elusive, toughest to take down running backs in all of football. And we know that the Patriots have had their issues with tackling, especially the Christian Ellis's and sometimes the Craig Woodson's of the world. They've got to be sure tacklers on Sunday night against James Cook. Jelani to Vibe back at practice, eligible to return. Maybe he plays, maybe that gives that Patriots run defense a little bit of a boost at the second level. Now let's get to Josh Allen. Defending Josh Allen, number one, pass rush discipline.
Starting point is 00:18:39 How far downfield are you going to get? We know that Bill Belichick's defenses, they didn't get too far down the field. They wanted to contain the edge, and they wanted to be almost conservative and keep Josh Allen in the pocket. We know that the Patriots defense now with Terrell Williams, Zach Corr, and Mike Vrable, they have a different philosophy. So how disciplined can this pass rush be? I bring up the interior defensive line again because it's not only James Cook who loves
Starting point is 00:19:05 to run inside, Josh Allen loves to run inside, which is very different than pretty much every other quarterback that you watch. Think about Drake Mays runs and his scrambles. They're almost always outside of the tackle. Josh Allen loves running straight up the gut. And last week he had about a 30-yard run against that Saints defense right up the middle of the field. So the interior defensive line. One question I have, will the Patriots play man coverage against Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman? Will they deploy Carlton Davis and
Starting point is 00:19:39 Christian Gonzalez and say, we're playing man outside. We're going to play man press because Keon Coleman is not a speedster and we're going to try to make them uncomfortable. The Buffalo Bill's offense, their passing game, it's not explosive downfield. They're explosive play. They're explosive plays come from yards after the catch. Josh Allen is 24th in the NFL in air yards per attempt. He's not chucking the ball down the field constantly. He's 28th in the NFL in tight window percentage, which means their OC, Joe Brady, doing a very good job of scheming easy passes for Josh Allen. A lot of the stuff is underneath. And Khalil Shakir is the guy you've got to watch out for. He's the fifth best wide receiver in all of football yards after the catch.
Starting point is 00:20:28 Last week against the Saints, catches a screen pass, takes it 43 yards to the house, broke two or three tackles. Again, the tackling has to be on point. The tackling has to be on point against Shakir and the tackling has to be on point against Cook. Cook is the 15th best running back in yards after the catch. That's where the explosives come from. The explosives come from the running game with Josh Allen and James Cook. The explosives come from the yards after the catch from Khalil Shakir and James Cook. In the occasional Keon Coleman downfield, in the occasional, uh-oh, we just lost a tight end, and he just went down the field for 25 yards.
Starting point is 00:21:07 But this is not a chuck and duck offense. Evan Lazar emphasized that point. He wrote at Patriots.com, Buffalo leads the NFL in average yards after the catch per reception. The Buffalo Bill's offense has generated 12 explosive plays on short passes and passes behind the line of scrimmage. The Patriots, not good news for Sunday night, they are 30th in the NFL and yards allowed after the catch. They've allowed 532 yards after the catch and they might be without Jalen Hawkins. We'll see Jalen Hawkins was back at practice on Thursday, but you might see Kyle Dugger instead of Jalen Hawkins and we know the challenges that that would bring. and don't sleep on the tight ends.
Starting point is 00:21:51 Just do not. Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid against the Patriots linebackers and safeties. It's going to be a challenge. The Buffalo Bills will call a lot of play action. They'll call some RPO's. They'll have Josh Allen rollout. And Josh Allen's been terrific,
Starting point is 00:22:05 number one in EPA, number one in EPA per dropback. He's the second best quarterback in QBR. He is fourth and passer rating. He's been excellent. Now, what can the Patriots do take care of situational football keep the buffalo bills inside the 20s or between the 20s not inside between the 20s the bills red zone offense is the eighth best in football the patriots have the second worst red zone defense you've got to keep the buffalo bills between
Starting point is 00:22:35 the 20s you also have to this goes hand in hand have early down success because the bills are seventh in the NFL on third down the Patriots defense is 19th on third down which begs the question, can you get any pass rush? The bill's offensive line, number one in the NFL in pressure rate. They've only given up 21.4%. The Patriots are 13th in pressure rate defensively. So can you get that pass rush? Teams have not blitzed the Buffalo bills a ton.
Starting point is 00:23:05 14th in opposing blitz rate. Patriots are 17th in blitz rate. Josh Allen is the sixth best quarterback in the league in EPA versus the blitz. Now, the bills will get caught from time to time, and they got caught a couple of times against New Orleans with some simulated pressure. When you're faking a blitz, you only send four with other players dropping into coverage. That bothered the bills a little bit against the Saints, but a huge, huge challenge. All right, the question isn't whether or not the Pat's offense will have opportunities on Sunday night. It's whether or not they can take advantage.
Starting point is 00:23:39 We'll explain next on today's episode of Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team, every day. I'm Cody Rourke from Lockdown Brockos, and this episode is brought to you by Peloton. Peloton is shaping the future of fitness with the brand new Peloton, cross-training, tread plus powered by Peloton IQ. This is Peloton's most advanced equipment yet, giving you real-time guidance and endless ways to move, whether you're running, lifting, or you're cross-training with your favorite instructors like Alex Toussaint. It's training reimagined to make your workout more personal. is built for breakthroughs. With features that help you plan, stay motivated, and hit peak performance, you can let yourself run, lift, flex, and go
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Starting point is 00:24:42 So let yourself run, lift, flex, push and go explore the new peloton cross training tread plus at one peloton.com let's not get it twisted okay uh the bills the bills are going to score they're going to score points in this football game and the patriots are going to have to need to keep pace with everything that's going on right they're going to have to keep pace with this bill's offense but you don't want to necessarily get into a shootout you've got to limit your mistakes And you've got a lengthen drives.
Starting point is 00:25:17 Lankton drives. If you can do that all night long, you have a shot. Now, that starts with the run game. Run the football. Time of possession. Keep it away from Josh Allen. Keep it away from James Cook. And running the football this weekend on Sunday night
Starting point is 00:25:34 should be something you can do against this Buffalo defense because it has been a weakness of the bills. They've given up the most 10-plus yard runs in football. They've given up 26 runs of 10 plus yards. That is six more runs than anyone else. They're 23rd, 23rd in stuff rate. So they've not been able to stop runs at the line of scrimmage.
Starting point is 00:25:59 They're 28th in yards before contact per rush attempt. The Patriots, by the way, are seventh in yards before contact offensively before any contact per attempt. That's a great number. Bill's defense, 22nd in Rush EPA. But here's the tough part. The Pats haven't been able to run. As you've watched it, you've watched it, I've watched it. They have not been able to run the football.
Starting point is 00:26:26 The Patriots are tied for the second worst rush EPA in the NFL. There are 27th in success rate. They have not been able to establish the run. The first half against Miami was the only time we saw any kind of consistent. Dan Orlovsky of ESPN highlights this point. Drake May, Orlovsky posted this today. Drake May has accounted for 77% of the Patriots yardage. That's ridiculous.
Starting point is 00:26:56 They have to get the running backs going. Now, with that said, Buffalo has had major issues against mobile quarterbacks. Spencer Rattler ate them up with some scrambling last weekend. And I think they're going to have a lot of trouble trying to contain Drake, May. I think this could be a Drake May over 30 yards rushing type of game because the bills just have not done a good job. The Patriots need to attack Joey Bosa. He loses contain on the edge a lot. So I think you're going to see some jet sweeps like you saw last weekend. I think you're going to see some quarterback run option with Drake May. You're going to see some of that misdirection
Starting point is 00:27:34 manipulation and motion against this Buffalo defense to open up some running lanes. Now, Ed Oliver and Matt Milano, both practicing for the bills this week. If they're back, the defense should be better. Patriots also have to take advantage of down and distance against this bill's defense. The bills are 25th on third down. The Patriots have the 10th best third down offense. The bills are 21st on fourth down. The Patriots have the fourth best fourth down offense.
Starting point is 00:28:04 They've converted 87.5% of their fourth downs. As we've talked about, Drake May has been brilliant on third and fourth down. And if the Patriots get it to the red zone, that's good news. Because Buffalo's defense is 21st in the red zone. The Patriots have the eighth best red zone offense. If you can run the football, you can handle it down in distance, you're going to score points against this Bill's defense. They are vulnerable against play action.
Starting point is 00:28:31 They are vulnerable against bootlegs. So there's going to be opportunity. Another question I have is, will the Patriots be able to scheme? explosives in the passing game like they did last week against Carolina because the bills past defense the numbers look good but we also have to acknowledge some of the numbers look good because teams know they can run against Buffalo but the past defense they're 11th in EPA per pass they have the third lowest yards after the catch allowed but here's a little number number inside the numbers the bills are 30 second an average target
Starting point is 00:29:11 separation. Their corners, their corners are giving space to receivers. 32nd an average target separation. The Patriots actually have the seventh best average target separation on offense. That's Josh McDaniel's cooking. Can he scheme up some guys to get open in the passing game? I think he has an opportunity. Bills are heavy zone. They disguise coverages. They will change post-snap an awful lot. Drake May has to be attentive and focused and understand what he sees after the snap, they will run some simulated pressures. So it's not a walk in the park,
Starting point is 00:29:48 but I do think there are going to be opportunities. And can the offensive line, can the Patriots offensive line force Buffalo to blitz more than they like to? Will Buffalo game plan to blitz maybe a little bit more? The bills are 12th in pressure rate. The Patriots, according to next-gen stats, are 18. offensively in pressure rate given up. Now, some of that's on Drake May.
Starting point is 00:30:14 Some of that's on the running backs, blowing pass protection. Some of it's on tight ends blowing pass protection. But the bills have gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They don't blitz a ton. 16th in blitz rate. Smack dab in the middle of the league. But the Patriots, teams have blitzed them. The Patriots have faced the ninth highest blitz rate through the first month in all of football.
Starting point is 00:30:37 Here's the good news. Drake May is the eighth. best quarterback in EPA versus the blitz. So you have a Buffalo defense that doesn't blitz a ton. They get pressure, but May's been good against the blitz. Jared Wilson had a big brace on his right knee at Wednesday's practice. We'll see if he's going to be able to go on Sunday night. If not, it's going to be Ben Brown.
Starting point is 00:30:59 And watch out for Terrell Bernard. He blitzes for this Bill's defense, and he got New Orleans twice on Blitz's last weekend. So pay attention to number eight. I'm talking to the running backs of New England. Pay attention to Bernard. All right, with Milton Williams. If Milton Williams plays, I've got the Patriots losing this game, but the spread is eight and a half.
Starting point is 00:31:26 I think they can stay within the spread. I've got it, Bill's 31, Patriots 24. Bills have more talent. They're playing at home. They're more prime time ready. And if the Patriots turn the football over, this one could get ugly. Hopefully it doesn't.
Starting point is 00:31:42 But I've got Bill's 31, Patriots 24. That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being an everydayer. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio. Don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Hit that like button and subscribe. And for your second listen, get a double dose of Lockdown NFL podcast with Tyler the Madman Roland and Tony Wiggins.
Starting point is 00:32:04 Find Lockdown NFL on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts. Have a great week. and we will see you after the Bills game.

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