Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Skeptics: Patriots-Drake Maye Undervalued? | Analysts Fuel Prove-It Season

Episode Date: July 13, 2026

New England Patriots face skepticism despite a Super Bowl run, MVP runner-up Drake Maye, and reigning Coach of the Year Mike Vrabel. Are analysts underrating what’s next for the Pats? Nick Cattles breaks down league rankings from ESPN and Pro Football Focus, challenging the “prove it” mentality around Maye’s rise and Vrabel’s leadership. With Drake Maye slipped to eighth among QBs and Vrabel undervalued at ninth among coaches, is the national narrative overlooking the team’s trajectory? Key areas of improvement emerge as A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs bolster the short and intermediate passing attack. Cattles spotlights how increased red zone efficiency and new offensive weapons could ignite May’s second-year leap. Plus, surprise roster candidates Xavier Holmes and Eric Gregory fight for spots on a competitive defensive front. With training camp looming, the Patriots’ blend of proven stars and under-the-radar talent could silence the doubters sooner than expected. Follow & Subscribe on all Podcast platforms 🎧 https://lockedonpodcasts.com/podcasts/locked-on-patriots/ Locked On NFL League-Wide: Every Team, Fantasy, Draft, & More 🎧 https://lockedonpodcasts.com/leagues/nfl/ #patriots #newenglandpatriots Everydayer Club If you never miss an episode, it’s time to make it official. Join the Locked On Everydayer Club and get ad-free audio, access to our members-only Discord, and more — all built for our most loyal fans. Click here to learn more and join your team’s community: https://lockedonpodcasts.com/everydayerclub Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! FanDuel Today's episode is brought to you by FanDuel. From the opening whistle to the final kick, Let There Be Goals on FanDuel. Visit https://FANDUEL.COM to get started now Square Get up to $200 off Square hardware when you sign up at https://square.com/go/lockedonnfl! #squarepod Indeed Listeners of this show get a $75 Sponsored Job Credit to help give your job the premium placement it deserves at http://Indeed.com/podcast. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Pats made a run to the Super Bowl have the reigning head coach of the year and MVP runner-up, but not everyone is buying their stock. This is Locked-on Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host at Nick Cattels. On today's show, two unsung names on the defensive side of the ball who could make the 53-man roster out of camp.

In the second segment, more specifics on how the Pat's passing game looks to improve. But first, some healthy skepticism about this team remains. This episode is brought to by Kalshi for a limited time. Download the Kalshi app and use code locked on to get $10 when you trade 10. Kalshi, trade on anything. I'm not going to paint this like everyone in the football world is doubting the Patriots in 26. But there is a significant level of, let's call it, prove it vibes existing out there in the ether. The football power index at ESPN ranked the Patriots 14th in the NFL, 7th in the

AFC. Pro football focus ranked Drake May as the ninth best quarterback in football. And the latest from ESPN is not much better. Jeremy Fowler's rankings from the executives, coaches, and scouts in the league actually have Drake May ranked eighth. The highest ranking on the list was fifth. And get this, there was at least one individual who did not rank Drake May as a top 10 quarterback heading into 2026. Now, if it was one individual, a handful of individuals, get real. Drake May being unranked after finishing as the MVP runner-up last season,

that's just rage bait. I'm not going to waste much more time on it. But the same conversation that I had about pro football focus, ranking Drake May 9th, is the same type of conversation I would have about these ESPN sources, executives, coaches, and scouts in the league, ranking Drake May 8th. Now, I'm not going to get too deep into it because we did a podcast last week on it. But Patrick Mahomes being second on this ranking, that's a lifetime achievement award. it is not how you should feel heading into 2026 about Patrick Mahomes.

Patrick Mahomes has not been the same guy statistically, analytically, three years running. He's now in his 30s coming off an ACL injury. There's no way on God's Green Earth. Patrick Mahomes should be ranked as the second best quarterback walking into this season. Now, he might end up being that guy by the end of the year. But there really is no standing of Patrick Mahomes being, being in the top three, let alone number two, given what we've seen recently.

Again, Lifetime Achievement Award, Dak Prescott being sixth. I think there's an argument there, but I would rank Drake May ahead of him, Justin Herbert. I would rank Drake May ahead of Justin Herbert. Herbert is seventh on this list at ESPN. And it just feels like there are two camps. There are two camps about this Patriots team going into this season. One camp is, hey, look, 2025, nice little story, but we need to see more.

The other part of this argument is 2025 and what we saw from the Patriots last season should be respected and is the beginning of what is going to happen with this team and that they're just going to get better. Doesn't mean they're going to win a Super Bowl this year. Doesn't mean they're going to get to the Super Bowl every single season. there are a lot of things that have to happen for you to get to the big game. But there's two camps. There's the camp that needs to see more.

There's the camp that says, no, that's the beginning. That's the beginning of something. And it's just going to get better. And I think Drake May is a microcosm of that bigger thought. Because even when you read ESPN's article from Jeremy Fowler, the two people that are quoted within the Drake May ranking, each of those people fall into one of those categories. The respected, this is just the beginning,

is represented by an NFL coordinator who told Jeremy Fowler about Drake May, quote, size, athleticism, accuracy, playmaking upside, through the roof, poison, toughness. He had zero weapons in a shaky O line and made it all work, unquote. That person respects what they saw in 2025. They appreciate it and they take it seriously.

then there's the other side. The we need to see more side. An NFC defensive coach told Jeremy Fowler about Drake May. Quote, he's really talented, but I need to see more. Other quarterbacks on this list have proven it over time, and he's got to keep doing it, unquote. Now, I don't necessarily disagree with the idea of, hey, Drake May has to do it again.

Drake May has to prove that he is a perennial top five or six quarterback. But if you're going off what happened last year and you are trying to project into the future, which is what this column is all about, it's ranking the quarterbacks for 2026. It's not ranking the quarterbacks for what they did. It's what you think they're going to do. And other than just natural skepticism or being pessimistic, what last year told you Drake May is not going to be one of the better quarterbacks in full. football this season. What would tell you that? And so I started to think about how many players

have gone from runner-up MVP to falling towards the average to just bad category over the last 10 years? Like how many times have we seen a runner-up to the MVP just completely fall on their face the very next season? Let's run through the last 10. Last year it was Drake May. 2024, it was Lamar Jackson. 2023, it was Dak Prescott. 2022, it was Jalen Hertz. 2021, it was Tom Brady. 2020, it was Josh Allen.

2019, again, it was Lamar Jackson, who was a unanimous decision as MVP, so there was no runner-up in 2019. 2018, it was Drew Breeze. 2017, it was Todd Gurley. 2016, it was, again, Tom Brady. So when you look at runner-up to the MVP, if you take Lamar Jackson out of it in 2019 as the unanimous vote getter,

you're looking at Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Tom Brady, Josh Allen, Todd Gurley, Drew Breeze, some of the very best that have done it. Do we go back and look at strength of schedule in 2017 for Todd Gurley or 2018 for Drew Breeze? Now the outlier is Jalen Hertz. Jalen Hertz is the only guy that you can question of the past 10 years that finished as the runner up to the MVP, he's the only guy you can question his future and say, well, the jury is still out on Jalen

Hertz. And Jalen Hertz is a different quarterback, a completely different quarterback than Drake May, all the conversations we had about the A.J. Brown edition and how Drake May is just a different guy at a different level as a passing quarterback than Jalen Hertz is. But this isn't just about Drake May. Again, this is about the football team. We start with Drake May because he's the guy in the room. He's the face of the franchise.

But did you know that Mike Vrable was ranked ninth by pro football focus over the past few days at head coach? Pro football focus telling us that Mike Vrable is the ninth best head coach in football. I think that's outrageous. I think it's absolutely outrageous. Dan Campbell is ranked ahead of Vrable. I don't know how you do it. Matt LaFleur is ranked ahead of Mike Vrable. I don't know how you do it.

D'Amico Ryans is ranked ahead of Mike Vrable. I don't know how you do it. Pro football focus is right up as confusing as it could be. Bradley Locker writing about Mike Vrable being the ninth best head coach in football wrote, it's fair to question the sustainability of last year's Patriots. There it is. We need to see more. who finished as league runners up,

but earned the fourth best overall PFF grade and face questions going into 2026. What questions do they face? What questions do the Patriots face aside from we need to see more? Or 2025 schedule. This team is better on paper. Continuing with Bradley Locker.

Vrable will need to prove that the 2025 season wasn't a fluke. Again, need to see more. Schedule, schedule, schedule, schedule, schedule. fluky, fluky, fluky, but even turning around New England so drastically in his first year embodies his overall steadiness. Two questions after I read that from Bradley Locker. Number one, what does he mean by the Patriots finished as league runners up

but earned the fourth best overall PFF grade? So you're telling me they finished second when they should have finished fourth. What are we doing here? Is it that drastic? And then are we not counting Mike Vrable's years in Tennessee? Because this list is littered with dudes who have been coaching for years, right? Andy Reid's on the list. I think he's like second, Sean McVeigh's first, Kyle Shanahan, I believe's third.

So we're talking about dudes who have been in the league for a while. But all of a sudden, Mike Vrable, it's like, well, 2025 could have been a fluke. What about what he did in Tennessee with average to below average quarterback play? Does that not count? I mean, again, it's not everybody, and I'm not going to paint it disingenuously as everybody doubting the Patriots. But there are some people out there. There are some people out there who are just running with the 2025 week schedule narrative

as we go into 26, acting as if 2025 meant absolutely nothing when we're trying to look forward to this upcoming season. and I think it's just the triple B. Bulletin board, baby. Bulletin board material from Mike Vrable and the Patriots. Coming up, two areas of the passing game that should make Drake May's life easier in 2026. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. Today's episode is brought to by Indeed.

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27 people found their next role in the time it will take me to tell you about Indeed. It's time to spend less time on the search and more time on the interview. your job the premium status it deserves with a $75 sponsored job credit at Indeed.com slash podcast. Support the podcast as well by heading to Indeed.com slash podcast and telling them that we sent you. Terms and conditions apply. You need to hire. This is a job for indeed sponsored jobs. As we said in the last segment, some people are waiting to see more from Drake May before they consider him a top five or six quarterback. Well, with the additions of A.J. Brown and Romeo Dobbs,

there are a couple of ways Drake May can quickly improve in 2026. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being an everyday. Don't forget if you're watching us on YouTube, help a brother out, like, click that thumbs up, comment and subscribe. We're still trying to hit 10,000 subscribers, folks. Let's do it. We're getting closer to training camp. Soon we'll be talking about joint practices and preseason football.

And soon we'll be talking about football that actually counts. Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe. The past two off seasons, I've said this numerous times, have been all about making Drake May's life easier. And we've discussed the upgrades across the board on the offensive side. We've discussed the running game. We've discussed some of the O line. We've discussed the receivers.

But let's dive into a couple of aspects of the passing game that should improve this upcoming year. which in hand should allow Drake May to improve as a quarterback. Doing damage in the short to intermediate areas is something that I believe is going to happen an awful lot in 2006 for Drake May and this football team. We've covered it. Drake May loves throwing the football in the middle of the field. He loves it.

He absolutely adores it. And when you look at A.J. Brown and what he does, the addition of A.J. Brown, that's only going to help. Now, I know that we've talked about it in pieces, that A.J. Brown and what he can do, the short to intermediate area out of the slot, all that stuff. But now we have numbers from pro football focus. And when I was looking through this column from our friend Bradley Locker, who we discussed last segment, when I was looking through this column about wide receivers and, you know, how they grade

in the short, intermediate, and deep portions of the field. It made me feel even better about A.J. Brown. It made me feel even better about A.J. Brown's fit with this particular quarterback. Let's look at the highest graded receivers on short passes from 2021 through 2025. So this is not a short sample size. 21, 22, 23, 24, 25. The highest graded receivers on short passes over the past five years. years. According to Pro Football focuses receiving grade, number one, Amon Rae St. Brown,

92.3 receiving grade on short passes. Number two is Puka Nakuwa, 91.4, at three, I mean scraping almost right up against Puka Nakuwa is A.J. Brown. Pooka Nukua, 91.4 receiving grade short passes. A.J. Brown, 91.3. Jay Brown over the past five years, according to pro football focus, is the third best receiver in football on short passes. What about intermediate passes? Same five-year sample size. Number one is Justin Jefferson. His receiving grade is 98.6 on intermediate passes.

Then you've got Brennan Ayuk, who, of course, missed the season, but he is second at 97.5. Then you have Nico Collins, who has also missed. a number of games. He is at 97.3 in Tide, tied for third on intermediate passes, highest receiving grade via pro football focus over the last five years is A.J. Brown at 97.3 again tied with Nico Collins. So over the past five seasons, A.J. Brown is the third best receiver on short passes and tied for the third best receiver on intermediate passes, according to pro football focuses receiving grades. Doesn't that make you feel good?

And when you think about A.J. Brown, and you think about Romeo Dobbs and Hunter Henry, the short to intermediate dominance that I think we're going to see will set up a lot of third and short. It will also result in the number of first downs and just move into chains. I really am excited to this.

see what this offense will do in the short to intermediate areas in the passing game with this specific quarterback, with the specific weapons that he has at his disposal. It really feels like a perfect marriage. How about finishing drives? Finishing drives would go a long way into helping Drake May, right? Putting more points up on the board earlier so you don't have to worry late. The Patriots, we've said this before, go back a month or two ago. The Patriots 20th last year in red zone scoring touchdown percentage. And when you look at 20th, obviously, that's right around the bottom third of the league. But I'm confident that Patriots will be better in the red zone and they'll be better finishing drives.

Warren Sharp recently posted the best accuracy on passes thrown into the end zone in 2025. It is another statistic. It is another analytic that Drake May is in the top 10. Drake May is 10th. He's the 10th most accurate. Looking back at 2025, the 10th most accurate quarterback, throwing the football into the end zone. And when you combine that statistic with the idea of Romeo Dobbs being pretty darn good in the red zone,

A.J. Brown being pretty darn good in the red zone, Hunter Henry, being pretty darn good in the end zone. All three of those guys can be effective in the red zone. We're not even talking about, you know, Kyle Williams and his ability to separate the line of scrimmage and Pop Douglas and what you can do maybe gadget-wise with him. We're not even talking about the running backs and what they might be able to do in the passing game. So when you start to put the pieces together, again, and you fit it with the quarterback that you have, Drake May is going to allow these receivers to win, so to speak, in the red zone, in the end zone. he's going to allow them to win.

He's going to make those tight window throws. He's going to be accurate. He's going to trust his guys. And with the guys he has this year, compared to what he had last year, which was okay. But compared to what he has this year, man, whoo, telling you,

I mean, it's right there for him that the potential is through the roof with this offense. So combine the short and intermediate area and being more efficient there and being more efficient in the red zone, two aspects of this passing game that should improve this upcoming season. And we're talking about, you know,

a quarterback second year in the system, better offensive line, better run game. And when you look at the short to intermediate, you look at the red zone, you know, combine all of that. The second year in the system, Josh McDaniels, better O-line, better run game and being more effective on first and second

and which would lead to being more effective on third down and the red zone. This is why even though the schedule is going to be tougher, I do think this offense is going to be really good. I'd be surprised if this offense fell on its face. I'd be shocked. Two guys that could steal spots on the 53-man roster this summer. It's coming up next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network,

your team every day. Not all the competition at this camp will happen at linebacker or a safety for that prize third spot. There are going to be some heated battles on the defensive line as well. And two guys might be able to do enough to find their way onto this roster. Thanks for checking out, the Lockdown Podcast Network. Now the number one sports podcast network, don't forget YouTube peeps to like, comment, and subscribe.

There's a popular question right now. And it's across all of the NFL, as we are a week plus away from training camp. And that question that is very popular in every NFL city is who's going to be the surprise? Who's going to surprise us? And Mike Reese came up with some names recently. Let's start with Xavier Holmes. This is what Mike Reese wrote about. This would be a Malcolm Butler type emergence.

Xavier Holmes was an undrafted rookie free agent out of James Madison, who was invited to town after a May tryout before being. offered a contract. He has a chance to emerge, considering second round pick, Gabe Accus, missed all spring. Outside linebackers coach Mike Smith said of Holmes, quote, he's one that shocked me. A bigger guy that can move, got some athletic ability, more than people think, running his tail off to the ball. So Xavier Holmes, he's six foot two and a quarter, 252 pounds. So when you look at the prototypical Mike Vrable outside linebacker slash defensive end. We had these conversations before the draft, right?

And during the draft, you see a lot of guys who are like 250, 255. Harold Landry fits into that. And so 6-2 and a quarter, 252, pretty much fits the Mike Vrable prototype at the position. Now, what doesn't fit is the relative athletic score. As Mike Smith said, you know, he believes that Xavier Holmes has more athletic ability than people think. And that's because Xavier Holmes's relative athletic score was a 4.96, according to Pat's Pulpit.

4.96. That ain't great. Xavier Holmes was a no-star recruit out of high school. He started his college career at Maine. He ended up at James Madison. At James Madison, he did have some productivity. He had 37 pressures, which was in the top five of his conference. He had six sacks as well.

Now, do I think Xavier Holmes is going to make this roster? I would say he's a long shot. But I don't think it's impossible. As Mike Reese mentioned in his write-up, Gabe Accus did not touch the field during rookie minicamp, did not touch the field during mandatory minicamp. He's dealing with coming back from at least one injury we know about. So, you know, how quickly can Gabe Accus a doubt?

and become a player for this team. We'll see. You get Jesse Luchetta. I mean, he just seems like a guy with all due respect. I don't know if anybody is, you know, jumping up and down about Jesse Luchetta. Maybe he'll surprise us.

And then you've got Brayden Swinson. So I don't think it's impossible to paint the picture of somebody like Xavier Holmes finding his way, creeping his way onto the roster, and surpassing dudes like Jesse Luchner. Luchetta and Brayden Swinson. I don't think it's likely, but it's not impossible.

Let's talk about a second player. Mike Reese wrote about Eric Gregory. The 6'3-319-pound Gregory essentially had a redshirt season in 2025. After the Patriots claimed him on waivers from Cincinnati at the final roster cutdown, Eric Gregory entered the NFL as a UDFA out of Arkansas in 2025, Arkansas. Eric Gregory, again, 63319. his relative athletic score is better than Xavier Holmes is. His RAS is 6.44, still not spectacular.

And you look at Lance Zerline of NFL.com. Zerline had Gregory ranked as a seventh round slash UDFA guy. So I don't think anybody really expected Eric Gregory to be picked in the top five or six rounds. Zerline wrote, Eric Gregory combines block eating, two-gapping power, and the ability to discard single blocks with upper-body twitch. He lacks lateral quickness to make plays on the move.

There is not much to his pass rush, which hinders his draft value. Still, Eric Gregory can play either interior tackle spot and has a chance to become a two-down backup. A couple of strengths that Lance Zerline mentioned, Eric Gregory has enough anchor to put up a fight against double teams. Leg drive allows him to collapse the gap and disrupt blocking schemes. I think Eric Gregory has a shot. I think he has a better shot than Xavier Holmes.

Kyri's Tonga is out. Kairi's Tonga was your run stuffer. He's gone. He's in Kansas City. And so when you look at somebody like Eric Gregory, he fits the mold of a Kyrie's Tonga, the two-gapping power, the ability to discard single blocks, enough of an anchor to fight against double teams,

can collapse the gap and disrupt blocking schemes. That's a dude who, you know, his projection before he got to the NFL was somebody who could help you on first and second down and could help you defend the run. Now, I think the biggest challenge for an Eric Gregory is how much depth there is at this specific position. I mean, Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, Corey Durdon, Joshua Farmer, and Leonard

Taylor. Those are five names. I think you could say all five of those guys are safe. Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, Corey Durden seemed to be like no-brainers. Joshua Farmer was a draft pick last year, and Mike Vrable has said some good things about him. Leonard Taylor, don't forget about the tip. Leonard Taylor is a guy who made some plays last year, and I think he is on this roster as we start camp. So that's five guys. So really what it comes down to, if you're wondering if Eric Gregory is going to make the 53, is whether or not the Patriots are going to take six interior defensive linemen.

Now, that would not be crazy because they took, the Patriots took six interior defensive linemen last year into the season. Now, some teams will say take five. Five interior defensive linemen guys are enough. But I think the argument, and this kind of goes back to what we discussed yesterday about Milton Williams, I think the argument is bringing extra interior defensive lineman, bringing six guys instead of five guys onto your 53, allows you to be more multiple. It allows you to utilize Milton Williams' versatility.

more because now you can slide them to the outside and you can put one of the younger guys on the inside. You can slide Milton Williams to the outside. You could slide Draymont Jones to the inside, as we mentioned, on yesterday's podcast. So that's the argument. The argument is, yeah, six might be one too many for some, if not most teams in the league at that interior D-Line spot. But for the Patriots, I think the way they want to move guys around that defensive

line bringing six to the 53 makes sense. And if it is going to be six guys, then I would say Eric Gregory is very likely, very likely, going to get the call. And it's very likely that he will be somebody that makes this team is out there, at least from time to time, in September. That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots.

reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio. Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe on YouTube. Thank you for making Lockdown Patriots your first listen. And also your second listen, if you want to check it out, it's Lockdown NFL scouting. Kyle Crabs and Joe Marino will make you the most informed NFL fan this offseason. Find Lockdown NFL scouting on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcast. Have a great day.

And we'll see you next time.