Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Stunning: Drake Maye MVP Favorite? | Keion White Traded To 49ers

Starting point is 00:00:00 Drake May isn't just an MVP candidate. After the halfway point of the season, we'll tell you why he's the guy to beat. Let's start there. This is Lockdown Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcasts Network, your team every day. What's happening in? I am your host, Nick Cattles, born and raised in New England. covering the Patriots for the past 16 years. Also co-hosted the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with

Starting point is 00:00:35 Nick Cattels and a sports talk show host veteran on today's show. Find out what the first half of this 2025 season has revealed to us with some of our biggest takeaways. In the second segment, we dive into the latest Pat's rumors less than one week away from the trading deadline and give you our list of needs. But first, Drake May's MVP bandwagon is getting really, really full. We We appreciate you joining the show, making us your first listen, and for being in every day or the Lockdown Patriots podcast is a proud partner of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. And if you're watching on YouTube, don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe. Today's episode is brought to by Game Time. Download the GameTime app, create an account, and use code Lockdown NFL for $20 off your first purchase.

Starting point is 00:01:24 Last week, last couple weeks, we've talked about Drake May and the MVP. conversation, quote unquote, and I've said that, yes, before this point, before week eight, before that game against the Cleveland Browns, Drake May was unequivocally in the conversation for the MVP. He was in the conversation. Post Browns, I think Drake May is your MVP favorite. Now, when we talk about MVP favorites, we all have to understand, acknowledge, and embrace the idea that we're splitting hairs. We're talking about some of the best. of the best players in football, and really, unfairly, best of the best quarterbacks in football, because as we know, quarterbacks usually win the MVP. And so one week, two weeks can mean the difference. One bad week for one quarterback, while another quarterback does great. That can put that other quarterback that did great ahead in the race.

Starting point is 00:02:23 And so when you look at what happened during week eight, now we are at the halfway point getting ready for week nine. Dak Prescott was not good last week for the Cowboys. They got trounced big time. You look at Baker Mayfield. I thought Baker Mayfield was leading this race going back three weeks ago. Last two weeks, Baker has not been very good. You might say Daniel Jones, as the Indianapolis Colts continue to win football games, I would say, well, Daniel Jones has Jonathan Taylor, who I think should be in the MVP conversation.

Starting point is 00:02:57 and as I've just said a few moments ago, the quarterbacks usually win, and that's probably why Jonathan Taylor is not getting as much pub to be the MVP because he plays running back. Jared Goff, a lot of people look at the team that he has, the weapons around him. I would say he has more help than Drake May. To me, my opinion,

Starting point is 00:03:18 the MVP race through the first half of this season is down to two individuals. It is Patrick Mahomes versus Dr. Drake May. With that in mind, we asked the question, how do those two guys stack up? Mahomes versus May. Let's look at the traditional statistics. Passing yards. Patrick Mahomes, 2009. Drake May, 2006. Practically the same. Touchdowns. Patrick Mahomes, 17. Drake May, 15. So slight edge in yards, slight edge in passing touchdowns. for Patrick Mahomes. Completion percentage. Drake May, big, big advantage. 75.2% is Drake May's completion percentage. Patrick Mahomes at 67%. And if you're looking at passer rating, big advantage

Starting point is 00:04:12 for Drake May. May is number one in all of football at 118.7. Meanwhile, Mahomes is ranked 10th in passer rating at 103.1. So when you look at the traditional statistics, it's two versus two. When you look at the analytics. QBR from ESPN. This is kind of eerie, but Drake May is tied with Patrick Mahomes and QBR. They both are at exactly 76.3. Kind of crazy. EPA, according to Sumer Sports, Patrick Mahomes is first. Drake May is fourth. EPA per play, May is actually tied with Mahomes. They're tied for fourth, and that includes Lamar Jackson, who has only played a hundred 131 plays versus 300 plus for Drake May and Patrick Mahomes. Total adjusted EPA, according to Kevin Cole.

Starting point is 00:05:06 Drake May is second. Patrick Mahomes is seventh. Completion percentage over expected. May is number one in the NFL. When you look at the traditional stats and then you look at the analytics, I would say Drake May has the overall slight edge. But the help around May, even though it's better than it was in 2024, is still well below many others. Ben Solac of ESPN wrote, May's running game constantly puts him in difficult spots.

Starting point is 00:05:37 On non-quarterback runs this season, the Patriots are 26th in yards per carry, 30th in success rate. Ben Solac continues May faces 7.6 yards to go on third down. The league average is 7.5. Dak Prescott has the third shortest third downs. Daniel Jones is second. Yet on third and fourth downs, May is second in the league in EPA per dropback in seventh in first down slash touchdown rate. The schedule, Nick, it's the schedule.

Starting point is 00:06:09 How can you give Drake May the MVP after the first eight games given the schedule he's played? Well, let's go back to Ben Solac of ESPN. An obvious past situations, Solac writes, there is no quarterback playing better. And we've touched on this throughout the year, but third and fourth down, passing downs. So lack writes on plays with an NFL, next gen stats pre-snap pass probability of 75% or higher.

Starting point is 00:06:34 So plays that you can predict 75% will be a pass play because defenses are expecting pass, dialing up blitzes. Drake May, under those circumstances, is first an EPA per dropback. He is second in success rate and second in passer rating. So when you look at obvious past situations, Drake May is the best quarterback in the NFL

Starting point is 00:07:04 when facing those circumstances. Third and fourth down dominance. Third and long, better than anyone else. Then you can mention the offensive line. May is 10th in the league in quick pressure rate. according to Ben Solac, which speaks to a porous offensive line. And fairness, I would say some of that quick pressure is on May himself. A lot of that quick pressure is on the team, tight ends, running backs.

Starting point is 00:07:34 And nobody, nobody is better throwing the deep ball than Drake May. Fantasy football data. Drake May on throws 20 plus air yards. He's first in completion percentage over expected. second and passer rating. He's tied for first for a highly accurate throw percentage. He's tied for first and catchable throw percentage. And he is first when it comes to off target percentage.

Starting point is 00:08:00 So Drake May, the best on third and fourth down, the best deep ball thrower, analytically, statistically, a top five quarterback pretty much across the board. Things might absolutely change. and there's plenty of time for things to change. That's why it's the halfway point. But right now, at that halfway point, Drake May, in my humble opinion,

Starting point is 00:08:29 is the MVP of the NFL. I think he just edges out Patrick Mahomes. It's close, but I think Drake May has had the better overall season. And even when you account for schedule, even when you account for, certain circumstances they face. When you look at the help that they have,

Starting point is 00:08:53 Drake May is the MVP through eight weeks. Playing against the toughest defense that he has played against all year, the Cleveland Browns last weekend, he continued, he continued to show why he's one of the best quarterbacks in football this year. And as we talked about earlier in the week, he aced that test. All right, a top NFL insider, bets on the Pats, making a trade before next week's trading deadline.

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Starting point is 00:11:28 Swipe, tap, ticket, go. Download game time today. As luck would have it, as I'm sitting here, recording this podcast, for all of you about to talk about the trading deadline, which is, you know, six days away from when this is going to be released, I've got some breaking news. I did a breaking news podcast earlier in the day about Marcus Jones and his contract extension. Well, the New England Patriots are not done making some moves. Keon White has been traded. According to the NFL network's Tom Pelliserro, Keon White has been traded to the San Francisco 49ers. It is Keon White and a seventh round pick to the 49ers for a sixth round pick. Now, that's the best you're going to get for Keon White, frankly. And somebody had asked me on Twitter earlier this week, since Keon White was a healthy scratch on Sunday, which for all intents and purposes ended his Patriots career, he, for whatever reason, just did not work out with the Patriots. I thought the new coaching staff would help him an awful lot.

Starting point is 00:12:38 Looked like early in camp, he was going to have a breakthrough. That certainly did not happen. He continued to decline throughout camp. He was leapfrogged by K. Levan Chason, who's been mostly excellent this season. And so Keon White went from promising young pass rusher with this new coaching staff to a healthy scratch by week eight. And so somebody had asked me on Twitter, what could we expect the Patriots to get in return? And I said specifically, late round pick swap. And so that's what you really get.

Starting point is 00:13:13 Keon White and a seventh round pick goes to San Francisco for a sixth round pick. This will just add to the draft pick allotment that the Patriots have. And hopefully they will be able to in 2026 in that draft in April, whether they use that sixth round pick on a player or they package a couple of picks and use that pick as part of that package to move up in the draft in April, it was, it was rather obvious that Keon White did did not have a future with the Patriots and they wanted to move on from him. And that's, that's a tough situation when you look at somebody who was, you know, drafted in the second round.

Starting point is 00:14:01 And, you know, he has a lot of the physical gifts and he has the hard work. but the work ethic by many people, by many accounts, just was not able to put it together. And some would say he's a tweener. He's not athletic enough necessarily at the NFL level to be a pass rusher on the edge consistently. He's not big enough to pass rush from the inside consistently. I would say I think he still has some value as an interior pass rusher. But the Patriots, as I've mentioned this week in prior podcasts,

Starting point is 00:14:34 the interior defensive line, they're deep and they're talented there. You've got Milton Williams and Christian Barmore and Kyrie's Tonga. You've got Joshua Farmer who's been coming on lately. You've got Corey Durden who's been coming on lately. There's only so much room. So, you know, you already got four or five guys you've been using. So Keon White's just not going to fit on the inside. So you take the sixth round pick and you move on.

Starting point is 00:14:59 And hopefully that pick becomes something. Again, whether it's part of a package or it's a pick, self, you throw a dart. The Patriots threw a dart at Kishon Booty and Pop Douglas a couple of years ago. And so far, you've gotten good production out of those guys, considering their sixth round picks. So I think it's the right move. Cut your losses, move on. Hopefully, for Keon White's NFL career, he can figure some things out in San Francisco. He'll be paired with Robert Sala, who's a good defensive coordinator. Maybe it works out for him in the Bay Area. So there's that deal.

Starting point is 00:15:35 Patriots might not be done. That might not be the only trade that we see. Again, we're now six days away from the deadline when this podcast is released. And there are lots of rumors flying around. The Patriots are involved. Adam Schaefter said on Pat McAfee show this week, quote, I could see the Patriots making a move here. I can see New England saying, hey, we're in this great spot right now.

Starting point is 00:15:57 We got a chance to beat Buffalo for the division. we got a chance to host a home playoff game, I wouldn't be surprised if New England made a move here before the deadline, unquote. Now, I'm thinking Adam Schaefter is talking about adding, not necessarily subtracting. Diana Rusini and Josina Anderson have also both reported that the Patriots are calling teams and they're looking around. So what do the Patriots need? Well, before the Keon-white trade, I had defensive end as the top need. So now with Keon White being dealt to San Francisco, I would say the need for defensive

Starting point is 00:16:36 and depth is even more urgent now. It's even more significant. Keon White's gone. Anthony Jennings hasn't played a ton. I wouldn't be surprised if Anthony Jennings is traded at some point before the deadline. So, you know, you're not going to use Jennings nearly as much as the last regime used him. So you have Caleb on Chase on and Harold Landry as your defensive ends who are getting the vast majority of the snaps. And Mike Vrable talked about managing some of the vets as you get deeper into the season, especially with a week 14 by.

Starting point is 00:17:12 And if you want to get into the playoffs, if you want to be a postseason team that might scare some others, then you need your veterans. You need your trusted guys to be as healthy as possible. So I don't think the Patriots are comfortable continuing to roll out Caleb-on-Chayson and Harold Landry as much as they have throughout the remainder of this season and not because those guys haven't been good. Landry has been good and Caleb-on-Chay-on's been excellent. It's just if you do want to manage those two guys, you've got to play some other dudes. Now, Braden Swinson, of course, is on the practice squad. You know, could Braden Swinson play a role? I don't know if they want to put that on a rookie who wasn't good enough in camp to make the roster out of camp.

Starting point is 00:18:02 So defensive and some experience there would be huge. Somebody who could help with the pass rush would be huge. Trey Hendrickson, we've talked about, I don't think he's available. Reportedly, Cincinnati is not going to make him available. Maybe that changes now after the brutal loss of the Jets last weekend. but the Patriots need at least one other defensive end, at least that they can bank on to make some plays, especially when the games get even more important,

Starting point is 00:18:30 even more snug. Cornerback is another position I would look at. You got the injury history with Carlton Davis and Christian Gonzalez. You want that extra depth there. Alex Austin was given his opportunity at the beginning of the season. He did not play nearly well enough to hold. hold on to that spot. So I think some cornerback depth behind Carlton Davis and Christian Gonzalez makes a lot of sense. If you can find another outside corner, Roger McCreary was

Starting point is 00:18:59 kind of rumored to be part of the Patriots thought process in some places. He was dealt to the L.A. Rams earlier this week. So Roger McCrary is no longer available. But I think an outside corner makes a lot of sense. Other spots, I think if you look at for death, adding a running back would not be the worst idea in the world. Adding a tight end who can block consistently would not be the worst idea in the world. I also think inside linebacker, are you super comfortable with Christian Ellis? He's played better than he did at the beginning of the season, but can you upgrade there? Jack Gibbons has been up and down.

Starting point is 00:19:39 I'd say mostly down the past couple of weeks. Jolani Tavai has done pretty well in certain spots, but they're not playing. him a ton and Marte Mapu as we saw last weekend he's still adjusting to be a linebacker and you know he was a disaster on that third and long against Cleveland which ended up as a touchdown drive so I think inside linebackers a spot safety especially if Kyle Dugger is traded and Adam Schaefter on his podcast this week said quote the Patriots have been open to moving off Kyle Dugger which we've known but Schaefter continued quote I would bet Shepter said, I would bet Kyle Dugger is no longer a Patriot by the time the trade deadline comes around.

Starting point is 00:20:27 So if you trade Kyle Dugger, you know, what happens to that safety spot? What happens to your safety depth? You've got Jalen Hawkins. You've got Craig Woodson. The Patriots decided to play Kyle Dugger ahead of Del Pettis, which was an interesting decision. when Jalen Hawkins was out with the hammy. So I think some veteran safety depth might be something you look at. Wide receiver, I just don't see anybody out there that's reportedly available

Starting point is 00:21:01 that's going to move the needle enough. Like Chris Alave reportedly unavailable. A.J. Brown might be available. There's some, the contractual stuff is weird and put the Eagles in a very difficult spot if they traded him this year during the season. But, you know, reportedly the Eagles are only going to trade A.J. Brown if they even trade him in the first place, if they get like a king's ransom. Of course, that's what they're trying to tell reporters, is that the truth. Who knows?

Starting point is 00:21:29 But it feels like the price for A.J. Brown might be way too high in this moment. And you also wonder about A.J. Brown's fit with the culture. Yes, he's been with Mike Vrable before, but he was the number one bona fide guy in Tennessee. And it's a different system. it's a different feel with this offense. And you've got guys that are kind of, you know, sympathico, so to speak with each other. And Josh McDaniels talked about it a couple of weeks ago

Starting point is 00:21:54 about the selflessness of this wide receiver group. A.J. Brown, you know, he's frustrated. And I understand the frustration when you look at how the Eagles have used him. It's not just about the, you know, statistics at the end of the day. But the price for A.J. Brown, when you probably can get him for less, if not a lot less this offseason, and how does he fit in the middle of the year culture-wise? Jacoby Myers is reportedly available,

Starting point is 00:22:23 but Mack Hollins has played really well the past couple of weeks as a pass catcher and doing a really good job of blocking. He kind of sets up defenses as an end blocker. Defenses think that he's going to be blocking when he's lined up next to the tight end, and then all of a sudden he goes out there and hits a big route. That's how the Patriots converted that, that Honeyhole play this past weekend against Cleveland.

Starting point is 00:22:46 Kishon Booty is even better than I anticipated. Jack Andrade from NFL media research, he posted most receiving touchdowns on deep passes since the start of the 2024 season, according to next-gen stats. Kishon Booty's tied for first with Jemar Chase. And Booty and Emeka Abuka are tied for first with four touchdowns on deep passes in 2025. And you also have obviously Stefan Diggs. Pop Douglas, the last two or three weeks, has started to pick it up. You'd like to give Kyle Williams an opportunity at some point. And Jordan Schultz reported that the belief is that the Raiders are looking for a day two

Starting point is 00:23:29 pick to move Jacoby Myers. I'm not giving up a second or third round pick for Jacoby Myers. That's a non-starter for me with how the receivers are playing right now. And with me wanting to see Kyle Williams eventually a little bit more. So I think wide receiver has fallen down a number of slots when you look at the urgency to add there. All right. Coming up, there's one position coach that deserves his flowers. Find out who that is and more next as we continue with today's episode of Lockdown

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Starting point is 00:25:07 We're officially halfway done with the season, kind of crazy how fast it's moving, but I wanted to give some of you, or all of you, some of my biggest takeaways so far this year, halfway through. The biggest takeaway is an easy and obvious one. This has been a lot of fun. This has been a lot of fun watching this team through the first eight weeks. Compared to 2023 and 2024, I feel like we should be throwing a parade with how fun it has been to watch the Patriots play football this season.

Starting point is 00:25:41 Mike Vrable, Drake May certainly feel like the tag team champions of the world that we hoped that they would be. So that's the easiest, biggest takeaway. This is just fun. It's fun watching winning football. It's fun talking about winning football. It's fun about being excited, looking at the future of the Patriots after the last two years of misery.

Starting point is 00:26:05 but some other takeaways for you that that might not be as obvious. Josh McDaniels is everything that I had hoped he would be. I wanted Josh McDaniels to be this team's OC. I felt like it was the right move. I did so many podcast episodes and segments on the radio about Josh McDaniels being the guy and why he should be the guy. He has been fantastic. The Drake May progression, I did not expect that we'd be

Starting point is 00:26:35 talking about Drake May being the MVP favorite halfway through this season. I was hoping we would be considering him a top 10 quarterback, really 10-ish, by the end of the year. He is way ahead of schedule, and I give a lot of that credit, not only to Drake May himself, but Josh McDaniels. And McDaniels has shown that he's open to changing and tweaking his offense. Chad Graff and the athletic wrote that when McDaniels was a head coach and play caller for the Raiders in 22 and 23, they ranked, this is kind of weird, 22nd, 23rd, in the league in play

Starting point is 00:27:11 action usage. The Patriots this season are seventh in play action usage. That is play calling to your team's strengths. Earlier this week, we talked about the run game versatility, the speed option plays, the read options, all the different stuff that we've seen, outside zone, gap going downhill combo blocks like all the different things Josh McDaniels has been open as I expected him to be after reading a lot of stuff about him and talking with others I expected him to be open to change and we've seen those changes we've seen what he's been doing

Starting point is 00:27:54 running more motion than he ran with Vegas and the Patriots offense they're seventh in scoring they're sixth in EPA they're 11th in DVOA And you talk about sequencing and OC's sequencing plays to attack defenses. We saw a perfect example of that against the Browns, first drive of the third quarter when they ran that jet sweep with Pop Douglas, followed that up with a fake jet sweep to Stefan Diggs, play action off that to Ramandre Stevenson into a bootleg, Hunter Henry, wide open in a flat and the flat for a touchdown. Yeah. And so I think Josh McDaniels has been tremendous. I also think he's got a, he's got a lot of help on the offensive staff. And I want to, I want to give a bouquet of flowers to Dodd Downing. There was some question, oh, well, Todd Downing work as a wide receivers coach. He has a former OC. He has a lot of experience, obviously, on the offensive side of the ball. He's run his own offense multiple times.

Starting point is 00:28:50 But, you know, would he be a wide receivers coach that actually works? And I think he's been a huge upgrade at wide receivers coach compared to what the Patriots have in prior years. The spacing is better. The route running is better, especially from Kishan Booty and Pop Douglas. And by the way, Todd Downing is sneaky great at celebrating on the sidelines. If you can catch him on the sidelines after a big play, keep an eye on him. A lot of times he's wearing a bright red shirt, hoodie, long sleeve shirt. I've caught him almost every Sunday celebrating. I mean, he's got some of the most hilarious. celebrations. There was one that he was like high stepping running on to the field.

Starting point is 00:29:33 It's just fantastic. So shout out to Todd Downing, who has seemingly solved the wide receivers coach problem the Patriots have had for several years. I think he's done tremendous. And finally, my last takeaway is that I'm just surprised that this run defense has been as spectacular as it's been. We had questions about Milton Williams, Philadelphia, did not play him a ton last year, compared to what he's playing this year.

Starting point is 00:29:59 He played less than 50% of the snaps last season, and many said it was because he wasn't good against the run. K. Levan Chase on, even though I don't think he's been great against the run and teams have run at him. They've been able to deal with that and survive that. You've got, you know, Christian Ellis and Jack Gibbons questions about those two guys at inside linebacker. But the run defense has been spectacular.

Starting point is 00:30:26 It's been consistent and spectacular, which has been a pleasant surprise. All right, that wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being an everydayer. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio. And don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Hit that like button and subscribe. And for your second listen, get a double dose of the Lockdown NFL podcast with Tyler the Madman Roland and Tony Wiggins.

Starting point is 00:30:51 Find Lockdown NFL on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts. Have a great day. you tomorrow for the crossover.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Stunning: Drake Maye MVP Favorite? | Keion White Traded To 49ers

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