Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Temper: Patriots Free Agency Expectations–Eliot Wolf & Mike Vrabel Calculated

Starting point is 00:00:00 If you are among Pat's fans who expect a spending spree this offseason, it's my advice that you temper those expectations. This is Lockdown Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcasts Network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host, Nick Cattles, born and raised in New England, been covering the Pats the past 16 years. Welcome to Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcasts. part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day.

Starting point is 00:00:41 On today's show, the latest intel on plans for tight end, safety, and more. In the second segment, we break down all the rumors about the Pat's involvement in the free agent edge market. And whether or not Kalevon Chase on, a reunion is seen as likely. But first, Mike Vrable, Elliott Wolf, and several reports are stressing one word to all of you this offseason. Patience. Today's episode is brought to by Fandul. Fandul is giving you a way to turn that energy into even bigger potential wins with a college basketball parlay profit boost. Head to Fandul.com to get started. Usually when a team gets to the Super Bowl and they lose that Super Bowl, it brings an unbelievable amount of urgency that offseason. The question always is, what do we need

Starting point is 00:01:34 to push this thing over the top. But all of the intel, all of the reporting over the past couple of days tells us the Patriots are not. They are not going to get crazy aggressive. Karen Geregian, Mark Daniels of Mass Live, they wrote, after spending over $100 million in free agency last season, the Patriots are not expected to make the same big free agent splash this offseason. They'll still target several veterans and build depth,

Starting point is 00:02:07 but the team is hoping for another strong draft class. We heard from Elliott Wolf. We heard from Mike Vrable during the week of the Combine last week. And everybody, everybody that asked those two gentlemen questions about, are you in a rebuild? What part of the process are you in the middle of here when we talk about this offseason? Both Wolf and Vrable continue to highlight the idea of Bill. building the program. Not rebuilding, but building the program.

Starting point is 00:02:39 Mike Reese, Sunday morning, ESPN.com, wrote, while they will always listen to trade possibilities for big name stars, they believe would help the team. They don't view themselves as the proverbial, quote, one player away, unquote, from a return trip to the Super Bowl. The possibility of acquiring the likes of A.J. Brown, Max Crosby, or someone of that ilk, is tantalizing. It seemed clear from the combine that the only way the Patriots would be involved in those hypothetical options is if the price is lower than last year's deal from Micah Parsons. Michael Parsons went for two first round picks and Kenny Clark, if you don't remember. First things first here, everything I just read to you and everything that Vrable and Wolf said during Combine Week does not preclude them from A, free agent splash. Nothing that I just read. There's a difference between making a splash and spending

Starting point is 00:03:43 upwards of $100 million in a single offseason. I'm not going to expect the Patriots to spend $100 million in free agency, but I also don't think we're going to see a bunch of guys getting one year $5 million deals. I do think the Patriots will make a splash. Now, whether that's going to be free agency and go out and sign somebody like a Jalen Phillips or if it's going to be a trade. But as far as spending the $100 million in making a splash, the fact is when you look at the free agency market, year in and year out at this point, there are not many Milton Williams is available to you. Teams do a better job of extending their young players.

Starting point is 00:04:30 it's very unusual to find a player like Milton Williams in his mid-20s, just about to walk into his prime after having an incredible impact on that defensive line in Philly, especially in the Super Bowl. You don't usually find guys in the market that are like that. Milton Williams was available because Philadelphia had a bunch of dudes on their defensive line, and they need to sign a number of those dudes. That's why he was available. It was an embarrassment of riches for the Eagles, and they weren't going to sign every single solitary interior defensive lineman on their roster.

Starting point is 00:05:08 That would be ridiculous. Look at what's happening with Indy and Alec Pierce. All signs are that the cults are going to keep Alec Pierce, whether it's a transition tag, a franchise tag, a straight up extension. All the reporting is saying that Alec Pierce is going to stay in Indy. And that is usually the case when you look at some of these guys that are top free agents and they're about to hit the market. but they never truly get there. Kyle Pitts with the Falcons is another example of that. And as I said, the idea of not spending $100 million in the off season

Starting point is 00:05:43 doesn't preclude a free agent splash, it also does not preclude a splash trade. There's a difference between trading two ones versus trading a single first round pick. There's a difference between trading two first round picks, a second round versus a second round pick and maybe, you know, a day three pick next year. There are differences, right? Just like there's a difference between making a splash signing and spending a hundred million. There's a difference between trading all of your assets, two first round picks for somebody like Max Crosby

Starting point is 00:06:20 or trying to find a middle ground, a gray area and say, hey, we'll give you the first round pick, but we're not going to give you two first round picks. I would also just say it's pretty obvious that the Patriots are absolutely interested and intrigued by adding a big name player. The reported interest in A.J. Brown. They are interested in Brown. Brown would certainly be a splash if you made that trade. Reportedly, they have interest in Jalen Phillips. Again, if you signed a Jalen Phillips, that's an absolute splash via free agency. So if you're not having these types of conversations, then I would say, well, it's obvious. The Patriots, they're not looking for a splash. Get ready for a bunch of cheap free agent signings, walk into the draft, and they get who they get in that draft.

Starting point is 00:07:16 But you are not having these types of conversations. You are not even entertaining the idea of acquiring an AJ Brown if you were shutting all the doors to a splash. So it's not about a splash. It's about how many splashes. It's not about spending money in free agency. It's about how many big ticket items are you actually going to sign in free agency. It's not about being aggressive in trying to make a trade. It's not wanting to spend two first round picks to make a trade. And this goes back to the very beginning of this offseason. And I've been saying this consistently over the past few weeks, the Patriots offseason should be aggressive but not reckless. I said that right after the Super Bowl, and I stand by that as we begin the month

Starting point is 00:08:11 of March, as we are a week away from free agency, the Patriots should be aggressive but not reckless. And that is exactly how they are reportedly approaching this off season. Yes, patience, striking when they can, not afraid to make a splash move, but also understanding where this football team is that they're still building this thing out and you don't want to be crazy aggressive, give up assets that you will regret down the road because you mistakenly thought you were that one piece away. So I do think we will see a splash, whether that's trade, free agent, I don't know. think we will see a splash, but I don't think this team is going to go bananas and trade all

Starting point is 00:09:01 the assets, trade all the picks, spend all the money. And I think that's actually the right way to go. Aggressive, not reckless. The very latest on Max Crosby and the Pat's search for edge help coming up next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. College basketball is nonstop. Big games, tight spreads, momentum swings every single night. From early tip-offs to late-night West Coast shootouts, there's always action on the board.

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Starting point is 00:11:32 Get one month free of the Everyday Club with code free agency. No spaces. Now through March 15th go ad free and keep this conversation going on Discord. Join the club at lockdown patriots. upacist.com or check the link in the show notes to learn even more. Don't forget as well to like, comment, and subscribe. If you're watching us on YouTube, appreciate all the thumbs up, helps us with the algorithm, your thoughts, your comments on this off season. Mike Frable, Elliot Wolf, preaching patience to Patriots fans. Are you buying into that? I'm buying into being aggressive and not reckless, and I think that's going to be the plan.

Starting point is 00:12:13 So don't forget to like, don't forget to comment. Don't forget to subscribe our next goal as far as subs goes, 10,000. That's the number. 10,000 subscribers, the next goal as we get ready for free agency. It has been universally reported that the Patriots' number one priority this offseason is at Defensive Edge. And I would agree with that. And there was a lot of intel over the weekend about the edge position. And we start with the guy who I think would be the home run swing. And I think many of you would feel the same way.

Starting point is 00:12:47 And that's Max Crosby. If you acquired Max Crosby, that is taking a home run hack. Andrew Callahan, Doug Kide of The Herald, wrote the following. Are the Raiders actually willing to play ball? That is the question on the minds of Patriots decision makers. League sources don't believe the Raiders are serious about trading Crosby. One team source believes a first round pick and other lesser assets, including one of the Patriots two fourth round picks, would be fair compensation.

Starting point is 00:13:17 So that's the Herald. ESPN's Jeremy Fowler on Sunday wrote, it's somewhat quiet on the Crosby front. This is a layered discussion because a team source said a few weeks ago that Crosby's chances of returning were relatively small, but he does not plan to request a trade. Crosby probably would not garner a Parsons-like trade package, which again was two firsts in Kenny Clark.

Starting point is 00:13:43 Some teams I've spoken to, wrote Fowler, to believe he will remain with the Raiders for now. Added an executive from an NFC team, quote, I think the price is too high. I'm not sure they really want to move him at this point, but that could change, unquote. At least a dozen teams have expressed cursory to strong interest in recent weeks. So if the Patriots are looking at this and saying to themselves,

Starting point is 00:14:12 a first round pick and quote unquote lesser assets, is enough. And one of those lesser assets would be one of the fourth round picks they have in this year's draft as they have two of those. A first round pick and a fourth round pick is nowhere near what two firsts in a vet is as far as a trade package. I mean, that's not even in the same ballpark. So if the Patriots are offering, let's just say hypothetically, a first, a fourth, and then another lesser pick, whatever that would be, a fifth, the fourth next year, whatever. And the Raiders are looking at that Micah Parsons trade.

Starting point is 00:14:52 And that goes back to Jay Glazer. When we talked about it, Radio Row, Jay Glazer said that he thought Crosby would net the Raiders more than a Michael Parsons trade. I found that hard to believe at the time, and I still find that hard to believe. I don't think you're getting more than two first round picks in a veteran like Kenny Clark for Max Crosby.

Starting point is 00:15:13 I don't think you're getting that type of package. the billion-dollar question is whether or not the two sides, whether it's the Patriots or another team and the Raiders can meet in the middle. Because if the Raiders are going to draw that line at two first-round picks and a vet, I don't think they're getting that. But if they're willing to cede some of that and say, okay, how about a first and a third, for example? Maybe the Patriots do that. Maybe a first-round pick this year and a second next year with a middle-round pick this year.

Starting point is 00:15:43 Maybe that's something they would do. But right now, if it's a first, fourth, and another lesser pick versus two firsts in a vet, this is not going to work out. The Patriots are not going to trade for Max Crosby if neither side is willing to budge. And, you know, for the Raiders, if Crosby does not request a trade and the fact that his contract is settled, he just got a new deal, it feels like it would be less likely he gets dealt. Now, I still think he's going to get traded because it makes the most sense for everybody involved. But I don't think it's completely out of the question that he stays.

Starting point is 00:16:22 How about the free agency edge market? We got the latest on that. Again, back to Andrew Callahan and Doug Kye. Multiple team sources believe there are no game changers in free agency. Trey Hendrickson, Jalen Phillips, and Addafe Owe, appeal to the Patriots, particularly Phillips. And of course, we heard that. We did the Friday bonus pod for you where Karen Geregian and Mark Daniels wrote that the Patriots are interested in Jalen Phillips.

Starting point is 00:16:49 The herald says the same here. But the front office is prepared to be priced out in what's expected to be a red hot edge market. So again, aggressive, not reckless. They're willing to go to a certain point for Jalen Phillips, but they're not going to go absolutely crazy for Jalen Phillips because they don't think they're that one piece away. Calhann and Kide, right, therefore it's likely the Patriots double-dip with another cheaper option like Dremont Jones or ex-Packers draft pick Kingsley-E-Nagbari. Both players were, you know, drew interest from the Patriots at the trade deadline, though talks involving Draymont Jones were never serious. So if you're looking at a Draymont Jones type, plus drafting somebody, and that's what you're going to add, that's not enough to me. I mean, Draymont Jones is similar to a Caleb-on-Chayson.

Starting point is 00:17:44 I just, I don't think that's enough. I don't think going out there and getting a lower to middle-tier free agent at edge and drafting an edge, especially if you got to wait to the second or third round to draft that edge. And Harold Landry coming back, if he comes back, how's he feel during camp, et cetera, et cetera? I don't think that's enough. I do not think that's enough. I think Kalevan Chason is better than those two guys mentioned. Both Jones and E. Nagmari, I think he's better than those two guys.

Starting point is 00:18:16 Speaking to Kalamon, Chase on the latest on him. Back to the Herald, Callahan and Kai. Chase on league sources projected could land between 10 and 12 million per year, if not more. The Patriots view Chasun in a similar group as Seahawks, edge rusher, Boye-Mafé and Bengals' defensive end, Joseph Asai, among others. Now, Joseph Assai is an interesting name because I would have Boy A Mafay slightly ahead of him. But it certainly feels like the Pats have tiers when it comes to free agency edge guys.

Starting point is 00:18:47 And Chason is more towards the Boye Maffei tier while you look at the Trey Hendrickson, Jalen Phillips, and Adafay Oway tier as above that. Mike Reese, meanwhile, at ESPN wrote about Chaseon. Two front office executives from other teams projected Chasons market will be in the 8. million to $11 million range per season. So pretty close. I mean, Callahan and Kide have 10 to 12 million per year. Reese talked to two executives that said eight to 11. It echoes my thoughts, the Mike Reese intel, echoes my thoughts a week or two ago as far

Starting point is 00:19:22 as Chase-on's earnings. I think you're looking at 10 or 11 million a year. I said that a couple of weeks ago. You know, 12 million a year would seem to be the absolute ceiling for him. And I do think the Patriots would bring Chase on. on back if they're looking at $8, $9, $10 million a year. I do think they would be open to a deal that looked like that kind of deal. But if you start talking $11, $12, $13, $14 million, I don't think the Patriots are going

Starting point is 00:19:50 to make that move. I would also remind everybody that the Patriots tried for, you know, Dremont Jones, E. Nagbari. And they also were interested in Boye-Mafé, all three of those guys. They had interest at all three of those guys during the trading deadline. And that's when you had Caleb-on-Chayson and Harold Landry. I think the most reasonable path is that the Patriots sign a proven vet. I'm talking about maybe not the tippity top.

Starting point is 00:20:19 I would love to see a tippity-top-tier guy. But if they don't go tippity-top-tier guy, one of Boyer Maffei or Caleb-on-Chayson, sign a proven vet in draft one or two edges to join Harold Landry, Anthony Jennings, Elijah Ponder, and Braden Swinton. I think that's the most reasonable path at that position. Christian Barmore's trade value is reportedly almost non-existent. And more next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. We live in a world where we can stream anything.

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Starting point is 00:22:06 Lots of local beat writers doing tremendous work over the past couple of days. Gregian, Mark Daniels, Andrew Callahan, Doug Kide, Phil Perry, Chad Graff, lots of people doing great work. And Andrew Callahan, Doug Kye did a lot of work over the weekend. They had a magnum opus of information in the Herald. Let's start with Christian Barmore. Now we've talked about Barmore, the idea of the Patriots may be getting rid of Barmore. I want to talk about the return for Barmore if the Patriots did decide to trade him, because that's what's out to me the most from the Herald. Here's what they wrote.

Starting point is 00:22:44 High-ranking members of the organization expect Barmore to remain in New England barring something unexpected. We've heard that from, you know, Karen Geregian and Mark Daniels of Mass Live. But here's more info from the Herald. If the Patriots choose to explore the trade market, two AFC executives believe they could

Starting point is 00:23:02 land what amounts to a late round pick for Barmore. One estimated the team could land a sixth rounder straight up, while the other said Barmore would fetch a fourth round selection in a pick swap trade where the Patriots also send a sixth or seventh rounder to his new team. Day three picks, a sixth round pick straight up. No way on God's green earth am I trading Christian Barmore for a sixth round pick. And I know all the questions, right?

Starting point is 00:23:31 We've got to see how the court case plays out more on that in a minute. You know, the knees are not great. He had the blood clot situation, the off-field stuff, a side-fieled. from just the latest in the court case coming up. I mean, I understand it. We've talked about all of it. But a sixth round pick, I'm holding onto him.

Starting point is 00:23:51 Getting a fourth round pick if you trade Barmore and a sixth, I'm holding on to him. I need a second round pick for Christian Barmore. Maybe you could talk me into a third. But I need a second round pick. That's my asking price if I were the Patriots. So we're not even in the same universe. Now, things can change.

Starting point is 00:24:12 If the court case doesn't go well, if there are even more allegations, then anything can happen. And that has been consistently reported. Like if this court case falls off a cliff or barmore, if things don't go well, the Patriots, I do think will cut him if it gets that bad. But I don't think, aside from that court case, I think I said this from the very beginning with how Mike Vrable handled the questions about Christian Barmore and how Elliot Wolfe handled the questions about Christian Barmore. This is a Mike Vrable thing.

Starting point is 00:24:45 If Mike Rable feels like he can handle quote unquote Christian Barmore, they're going to hold on to him because he does have an impact. And I know he's not consistently game changing like you wished he was. He still brings impact. And he and Milton Williams are still a headache, especially when Barmore is right. if you could get a second or third round pick, then yeah, you have the conversation. But if we're talking about a sixth,

Starting point is 00:25:10 you already have four sixth round picks in this year's draft. You need a fifth. So I think this court case goes okay. Braybill's going to believe in himself. He's going to believe in his ability to handle Barmore and get the most out of him. All right, let's jump to tight end. Patriots need to add.

Starting point is 00:25:26 We've talked about it. They need to add at tight end. They need to get younger at tight end. Callahan and Kaidro on a, offense, one league source believes the Patriots will sign a Y, which say blocking tight end, and draft an F, a receiving tight end, given the availability of both types of players and free agency. If Austin Hooper leaves don't expect the Ravens Isaiah likely or the Titans Chigazian

Starting point is 00:25:50 Anconquo to replace him. Now, the Isaiah likely piece, that conflicts with the Chad Graf report and the athletic saying the Patriots would be interested in likely. of course, part of that report from Chad Graff was if the price was right. But the Herald, Callahan and Kide saying, don't expect Isaiah likely. Aconquo is interesting because, of course, he has the Mike Vrable link. He was, you know, Vrable was in Tennessee when Akonko was drafted. So that would make sense from that standpoint.

Starting point is 00:26:24 A wide tight end is huge. It's an absolutely huge need, I think, for this football team. They need somebody who they can, you know, bank on blocking in the run game. Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper were both very inconsistent when it came to blocking. They need a tight end that can block. Even in past protection, how many times, right? We saw chips and they weren't really good. They need somebody who can block.

Starting point is 00:26:50 And you also, if you want to play three tight end sets, you need somebody who can block. Now, one of my targets at tight end would be Kate Otten. I will get to that later this week when I give you my full free agency and offseason plan. That'll be coming later this week. Kate Otton's a guy that I have highlighted. All right. How about Stefan Diggs? Well, we have even more on Stefan Diggs.

Starting point is 00:27:15 Callahan and Kai. According to team sources, Diggs returned to New England is no guarantee. Though multiple high-ranking members of the organization believe his current contract is fair enough, he could continue to play on it. I would disagree. I do not think $20.6 million on the base is fair. The way that Diggs started to fade towards the end of the year was not ultra-productive in the playoffs. Some of that was on the quarterback, missing Diggs.

Starting point is 00:27:46 But I look at 20.6 million base and I look at the 26-plus million-dollar cap hit. I don't think that's a fair contract for Stefan Diggs in what he brings to you. Back to the story. Most outside league sources cast doubt on Diggs's return this week. Some familiar with the Patriots thinking, however, believe or have a strong belief that he will be back. So there's stronger belief internally that Diggs will be back with the Patriots. Take that for what's worth. One last note.

Starting point is 00:28:19 Jalen Hawkins, safety. Talked about this, right? Pat's, you're going to need a safety. If Hawkins walks, they need a safety. You bring back Hawkins. You feel okay. maybe some depth there you might need, but Jalen Hawkins set to be an unrestricted free agent.

Starting point is 00:28:33 Callahan and Kide wrote over the weekend the Patriots view safety as a deep position in this year's free agent class, which includes Hawkins. His market, Hawkins's market per sources, has been unexpectedly cool. One AFC team doesn't even view Hawkins as a starting caliber player. Now, if Hawkins leaves, Callahan and Kide, they mentioned Chief Safety Brian Cook,

Starting point is 00:28:58 Rams veteran Cam Curl, and Seahawks up-and-comer Kobe Bryant as names to watch. And we have to remember as Calahanna-Ka-Dide right, the Patriots have a clear type at safety under Vrable and safety's coach Scott Booker. They prefer smaller, range-year players that can cover, tackle, and communicate well.

Starting point is 00:29:18 That's why Kyle Dugger didn't have a spot. That's why Gibral Peppers didn't have a spot. those guys were sent out because they don't necessarily fit the mold of a Mike Vrable safety. Jalen Hawkins, he was solid enough last year. I would have absolutely no issue bringing him back. I would not sign him to a huge contract. I wouldn't sign him to a three or four year deal. Bring a back couple of years, right?

Starting point is 00:29:42 Maybe a three-year deal, but with an out after year two. You don't need studs everywhere. So I would have no issue bringing Hawkins back. and it feels like, according to the Herald, he doesn't really have a hot free agency market. And he is on record saying he wants to come back and Elliot Wolf went on record during the Combine saying that the Patriots would like to have him back.

Starting point is 00:30:04 All right, that wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being an everydayer. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio. And don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel, hit that like button and subscribe. And also don't forget, get one month free of the. Every Day or Club with code free agency,

Starting point is 00:30:23 no spaces, now through March 15th. Join the club at lockdownpatriots.supercast.com. Have a great day, and we will see you tomorrow.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Temper: Patriots Free Agency Expectations–Eliot Wolf & Mike Vrabel Calculated

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