Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - The Dark Side Strikes Back: Patriots Primed for Sub-Par Season? - 6/3/2020

Episode Date: June 3, 2020

Success and struggle have been said to be two cups of water from the same well.  While some have taken an optimistic look at the New England Patriots 2020 NFL Season outlook, some prognostications have not been so kind.  Joining host Mike D’Abate is the Pod Vader, himself, Jay Soderberg.  The duo discuss the Pats’ chances of contending in 2020 and the concerns each has when it comes to the health and stability of New England’s offensive line.   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Patriots fans, you are now locked in to the Locked On Patriots Podcast. I'm going to show you how to make a beautiful and beautiful flower. I'm going to use a small flower pot. I'm going to use a small pot Hello to all of you Foxborough faithful. Welcome to your Dark Side Strikes Back episode of the Lockdown Patriots Podcast. Your daily home for news notes and analysis infused with the occasional opinion on your six-time Super Bowl champions, the New England Patriots.

My name is Mike DeBate, your host of the Locked On Patriots podcast, which of course is a proud part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. And folks, because it's your team every day, that means your questions, your comments, your feedback, always welcomed and greatly appreciated. Feel free to share that feedback at any time by reaching out to me and following me on Twitter at MDABATEFPC. And while you're out there keeping a sharp eye on that Twitterverse, please be sure to follow the Locked On Patriots account as well at LO underscore Patriots.

Patriots fans, it is Wednesday, June 3rd, 2020. And you know, here on the Locked On Patriots pod, we always like to look at the bright side of things, the lighter side of things. In fact, I've often been accused of spinning the prognosis when it comes to your New England Patriots with a bit of a Foxborough filter, meaning that I look at things through rose colored glasses. I like to think I'm a realist, maybe a little bit too much of an optimist at times, but folks, I call it the way I see it.

Doesn't always mean I'm right. Sometimes there's a flip side to things. Some people may call that side a little more negative. Others may call it a little more realistic. But for the purposes of today's podcast, we're going to be calling it, wait for it, the dark side. And folks, as you can tell, James Earl Jones as Darth Vader is not one of my best impressions. But that being said, we are going to walk on the dark side today here on Locked On Patriots.

The executive producer of the NFL channel here at Locked On Podcasts, my fearless leader, the Podvator himself, Jay Soderbergh, is my guest today. And you might be asking yourself, well, why are you calling this the dark side, Mike? Is it simply because he's called the Podvator? Well, in some cases, folks, yes, you know I love my pop culture references. I couldn't resist. But also, Jay takes a very realistic and, dare I say, maybe pessimistic view of what the Patriots might be able to do in 2020.

But the one thing I can always guarantee you with Jay is that his opinions are backed up with fact, reason, and more often than not, they're pretty accurate. After all, folks, Jay Soderbergh was right about Tom Brady. I was wrong. And I'll give him his just due when I welcome him in in just a moment. But today, we will be talking a lot about the Patriots' prognosis for 2020. Why he believes that some deficiencies in their roster, combined with the Patriots' strength of schedule,

might have them finishing the season sub-500. Maybe even near the bottom of the league. No, folks, I'm not playing around. Neither is Jay. He's serious about this. And of course, because it's Positional Depth Chart Week here on the Locked On Patriots podcast, we will talk about a position we haven't really delved into yet, and that's the offensive line.

Jay and myself, and of course, I've got to give a major shout out to my man Thomas Murphy, who was also on this bandwagon, in that the Patriots needed to address the offensive line either through free agency or preferably through the draft. We were all big proponents of the Patriots drafting Cesar Ruiz. That didn't happen. And as a result, that might leave the Patriots a bit thin at the offensive line. And let's face it, folks, when you're breaking in a young quarterback like Jarrett Stidham, that is not the best place on your roster to be a little thin. So sit tight, folks.

All this and more as the podvator himself tempts us with the lure of the dark side here on this Wednesday episode of the Locked On Patriots podcast. But first, there are a couple of notable news and notes from Foxborough that I wanted to share with you. And the first is some logistical news. And yesterday, folks, the NFL notified teams of two changes to training camp protocol. This coming as the league continues to evaluate risk factors associated with COVID-19. According to the NFL's decree it's looking more and more likely that teams will be holding training

camps this summer. However that will involve a couple of changes. The first is that teams are now required to hold training camps at their home facilities. That really doesn't impact the Patriots folks. Since 2002 the Patriots have held their training camp at Gillette facilities. That really doesn't impact the Patriots, folks. Since 2002, the Patriots have held their training camp at Gillette Stadium. Prior to that, they held a college-like training camp environment at Bryant College, now Bryant University, in my hometown of Smithfield, Rhode Island. Allow me a gratuitous shout out to the Bryant Bulldogs. But again, the Patriots since 2002 have held their training camp at Gillette, so that will not affect them. Where the Patriots will be affected is that no team is permitted to hold joint practices.

Until the preseason games start, all NFL teams will be relegated to remain in their home facilities. It had been rumored that the Patriots might have been eyeing joint practices with Matt Patricia's Detroit Lions for the first week of the preseason. They held joint practice with the Lions last year in 2019 and also Mike Vrabel's Tennessee Titans. And typically, the Patriots have utilized these opportunities quite to their advantage. But in light of the travel restrictions and the social distancing restrictions that are being put in place, it seemed likely that there would at least be a change to some training camps. And as a result, Patriots will not be holding any joint practices this year. For those of you that wonder about OTAs or mini-camps, there's some information on that

as well. Just this morning, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that his sources were indicating to him that players will not be reporting to facilities at all until training camps officially start. So unless there's any change to this, that would mean no in-person OTAs or mini-camps at all this offseason. That could be significant for the Patriots, especially because they're going to face the challenge of putting together a young team with a new starter at quarterback. Just how much will that impact the Patriots?

Well, the jury's still out on that one, folks. And that just might be one of the reasons why my guest Jay Soderbergh today has a little bit of a dark prognosis when it comes to the fate of your New England Patriots in the upcoming 2020 season. So Patriots fans, without much further ado, prepare to join me as I delve into the dark side with the pod Vader himself. But first, as any fan of the great George Lucas epic knows, the only way to combat the power of the dark side is with the force.

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but it does come with a New England lens. A Foxborough filter, if you will. Patriots fans, I always try to bring the most objective point of view that I can, but it does come with a New England lens, a Foxborough filter, if you will. But that's not the case with my guest today. He keeps it real, he keeps it honest, and he keeps it accurate, folks. Joining me today on Locked On Patriots is the creative force behind the great content here at the NFL channel of the Locked On Podcast Network. He is the executive producer of Locked On Podcasts and one of the most trusted voices when it comes to matters surrounding your New England Patriots. And Pats fans, today he might just have you exploring the dark side.

He is my fearless leader, Jay Soderberg. Welcome back to Locked On Patriots, Podvator. Mike, it's always a pleasure, and hopefully it will still be a pleasure after today. It's just I've heard a lot of hope and a lot of inspiration about this upcoming season for the Patriots, and I have no problems being the one that brings you back to the dark side and sort of brings a little dose of reality back to some of the things I've heard about our team. Well, the dark side and reality are probably two cups of water from the same well, my friend. I think in a lot of ways, we try to live in hope.

After all, I'm a Rhode Islander. It's the state motto. We live in hope, Jay. But you know what? Bottom line is, is this is going to be a different season in new england this year and i think in a lot of ways we're hoping for the best maybe not all of us are expecting the worst but at this point i think it's wise to at least hear some of that and some of what you have to say today as it always is because again i didn't exaggerate when I said you keep it real,

you keep it honest, and you keep it accurate. So that's a big reason why I'm asking you here today, and I'm so glad that you took the time out to join me here on Locked On Patriots. Now, Jay, I usually don't have to admit I'm wrong here on Locked On Patriots that often, but before we kick off, I do owe you an apology, Podvator. You were right about Tom Brady's departure. I was wrong. And you know what they say. Variety is the spice

of life, and sometimes the difference of opinion is healthy. And I think today we might once again find ourselves on opposite sides of the spectrum. But Jay, the Patriots have question marks at several key positions. All week long here on Locked on Patriots, I've been doing positional depth chart breakdowns.

And the Patriots have obviously regressed at the quarterback position. As much as I believe that Jarrett Stidham can be a viable quarterback, I'm in no way suggesting that he's going to equal Tom Brady. But a young quarterback especially, he might only be as good as his offensive line. And the Patriots have some question marks on that line. Starting with something that I alluded to yesterday on Locked On Patriots, and you and I have discussed personally offline several times, and that's the health of David Andrews. He's quelled a lot of concerns about his health recently, making appearances, sort of giving himself a clean bill of health. But you and I both know that health

conditions like blood clots in the lungs can still be a recurring problem. And that's why both of us very much agreed that Michigan's Cesar Ruiz, who's now in New Orleans Saint, would have been a wise choice for the Pats. Considering the personnel that you see on the offensive line, Podvator, combined with the loss of Dante Skarnecchia. Let's face it, Jay, many consider Dante Skarnecchia to be the heart and soul of that offensive line. So in 2020, do you believe the Patriots have a legitimate concern along that O-line? Legitimate and scary. And there's a lot of things that you just threw there that make phenomenal points in this regard. I think, one, the loss of the coach, Dante Skarniecki, is ginormous.

And he just popped up in the press here in the last week. And he's very happily retired. This isn't one of those, I retired and I'm coming back situations like he did a couple years ago. This is, I'm retired and I plan on staying retired. And there's a couple of good youngsters who I've worked with that know the team that appear to be ready to take on the role. David Andrews, blood clots in the lungs. If I'm not mistaken, isn't there a pandemic going on right now that affects the lungs?

I mean, that's super scary. Yeah, you're absolutely right. I mean, that has got to be mega scary for David Andrews. And listen, the Patriots, if we want to look a little bit on the hope side, the Patriots have gone all in on David Andrews here. They didn't make that move in the draft. I mean, on top of the fact that David Andrews has the lung condition, he's also got an age condition.

He's been in the league at about that time when the Patriots looked to start transitioning from that particular center. And Damian Woody was a great center for the Patriots, and he only lasted for a few years. I don't think he made it to one contract after his rookie contract. I'm not 100% certain on that. But Damian Woody was moved out. I mean, this is something that age,

but the Patriots appear to be all in on him because they didn't make a move. He was seen on the sidelines quite a bit towards the end of last season. So maybe it's something where they know something we don't. Maybe he is fully recovered. He's ready to go. Maybe he was ready at the end of last season. They decided, hey, just take a breather. Wait, no pun intended.

Just wait it out until next season uh david andrews is a solid center there's no mistaking that he he is a talented center and he will definitely improve that offensive line just by his presence there and his experience at the center position the way that he'll be able to take over the calls on the line. I call him a rookie. He's not a rookie anymore. Jared Stidham won't need to be calling out the blocking on the offensive line. So that will be a huge help, obviously. The question is, can he stay healthy the entire season?

Can we protect those lungs from a pandemic that affects the lungs? These are the questions that i have and there's nobody else on the roster other than a seventh round draft pick uh who's taken a snap who's ever given a snap uh they they let all of the backup centers go i mean it would have been nice to have kept either ted karras or fore, just to have at least somebody with some experience at the center position. But there's nobody after David Andrews. We have a rookie. That's a fair point. And folks, the rookie he's referring to obviously is center Dustin Woodard out of Memphis. Patriots took him in the seventh round, 230th selection. Woodard definitely has some upside. He's a stable interior lineman. He's known for being versatile. He's known for being durable.

That had to be a big factor in the Patriots' interest in Woodard considering what we've talked about with David Andrews and the uncertainty surrounding his health. But like you said, Jay, he's a rookie. He's undersized at his position. He can be overpowered at times. I think because he's so tenacious, so competitive, and so tough, that aids him in that area a little bit. But he needs time to develop strength at the NFL level. he's so tenacious, so competitive, and so tough, that aids him in that area a little bit, but he

needs time to develop strength at the NFL level. And when you're trying to develop a quarterback like Jarrett Stidham, having the protection along the offensive line is such a key part of that, especially the center position, one of the more vital parts of that offensive line that's going to be needed to protect Jarrett Stidham. I know I got on you earlier about the dark side and all that, but we're very much like-minded when it comes to the center position. I hope I'm wrong on David. I love David Andrews. I've had the opportunity to cover him for the last three years in New England.

You're not going to find a more well-respected guy in the locker room, a more dedicated guy to his craft, and really a better fit at the center position on the field for the Patriots than anyone else that's available right now. If you're going to, as you said, quote, go all in on David Andrews, he's the guy to do it for. I just worry about his long-term health, and I'm glad that you mentioned the restrictions and the difficulties that the COVID-19 pandemic could present as well could be a whole new

set of issues. But Jay, staying on the offensive line for just a moment, the Patriots' concerns along the offensive line might not just be limited to the absence of Dante Skarnecchia or the health of David Andrews. They do have legitimate questions on both the guard and the tackle positions. Joe Tooney, his status is really still a mystery if we're being honest. I think the Patriots are trying to work out a long-term deal. People that I've talked to close to the organization support that theory. I hope they can get it done because Tooney is among the best left guards in the league.

I think, again, to develop Stidham, you're going to need stability at that position. The left tackle position is one that I keep going back and forth on because I'm a huge fan of Isaiah Wynn. I like the combination of toughness and athleticism he brings to the offensive line, but let's face it, Jay, he hasn't been healthy the last couple of years. Missed a great deal of time due to turf dough in 2019. Missed a great deal of time with a knee injury in 2018 in his rookie season. If he's healthy, the Patriots have nothing to worry about when it comes to that position.

They're set, but if he's not, we saw what happened last year with the Marshall Newhouse fiasco and some of those plug-and-play problem-solving type solutions that didn't quite work out. But the right side of the offensive line is not without its questions either. Shaq Mason is pretty solid at right guard, but I think he underachieved a little bit last year as well. Didn't quite live up to the expectations, at least I had for him. And Marcus Cannon, there have been times when he's been solid here. There have been times where he's been a disappointment.

Carries a huge cap number, and the Patriots stand to get significant cap relief if they do indeed release him. So keep a sharp eye on Marcus Cannon, folks. He might end up being the odd man out. So based on all of that, Podvator, when we look at the Patriots offensive line, are your concerns limited to merely the center position or do you think they also have significant questions either at the guard position or at the tackle position? No, it would be the outside positions, both tackle spots. I feel solid about the guard position or at the tackle position? No, it would be the outside positions, both tackle spots. I feel solid about the guard positions. I don't understand moving Joe Tooney. I get

that there's a contract situation there, but you don't want to be moving a major piece out of a position of weakness. You want to keep that. You got to keep that strength. And Joe Tooney, I think, is the best offensive lineman on the team at this particular time can't be dealing joe tooney at this particular point in time uh if if i have to choose between joe tooney and shack mason i prefer to keep joe tooney let's deal shack mason that's not saying shack mason's a bad player i just feel that uh we we need joe tooney more than we need Shaq Mason. And I would prefer to keep both of them quite honestly, leave it at that. Marcus Cannon is an interesting conundrum.

He is a riddle inside of a riddle inside of a joke. I don't get Marcus Cannon. He he's had injury concerns. Obviously he's got the great story of overcoming cancer to continue playing at a professional level. But he also is a guy who two seasons ago, when he had a certain tight end sitting next to him, rated as the highest offensive lineman on the team, according to Pro Football Focus. Last season, he was one of the worst right tackles in the league uh obviously because he doesn't have that certain tight end sitting next to him uh anymore uh so i think there's a lot i think there was a huge exposure there last season as to marcus cannon's talent. And that has me extremely concerned.

And as you mentioned with his contract at such a level that he earned based on statistics that were available, he, he resigned and earned a certain amount of money due to his performance. And then his performance fell off the cliff uh that's a huge issue and i don't i don't know if anybody would be willing to take that issue off of our hands uh in a trade of any sort i certainly don't think you're going to get any value for marcus cannon any real value and if you look at the trades that the patriots have made recently

with that certain hall of fame tight end only being traded for a fourth round pick, I don't have any trust that this front office will get any sort of real value for Marcus Cannon or even Joe Tooney, for that matter, based on some of the moves that they've made recently in regards to that sort of perceived value that we have as fans. But yeah, Isaiah Wynn is a, I mean, you mentioned it. He didn't play a full rookie season. He didn't play a full second season. I don't understand how you can believe going into the third season that he's ready to go 16 games. I don't have any trust. And that leaves us to the rookie redshirts in Yanni Kajust and Yalte Froholt, whom we've seen nothing. I mean, did we even see anything out of them in the preseason last year? I really don't remember much. And if they did, it wasn't like they performed at a level that incited any sort of inspiration for us. Yeah, we didn't see either Froholt or Kajusti on the field for the Patriots in 2019.

Kajusti was a total redshirt. He didn't end up seeing any action either preseason or in the regular season. Froholt saw some limited action in the preseason. It wasn't all that impressive. I was impressed by the fact that he does have a strong anchor. He's a tough kid to move. When he's able to set his feet and provide protection, I think he could be a solid addition to this offensive line.

But he's going to have to improve his mobility. He was beat several times last year by a lot of defensive linemen in the preseason. And again, Jay, we got to remember, the competition the teams are facing in the preseason is not exactly up to NFL caliber all the time. So some of these defensive linemen weren't all pros that were easily getting around him. So I like Yelda. I'm hoping he gets a shot because I think he could do some good things.

Based on what I saw of him in college, I think he could be a solid addition to this offensive line. Kajusta, on the other hand, I think could be a big contributor this year. And a lot of people saw him as a potential steal when the Patriots picked him up. I was in the Patriots media room when they selected Yodney last year, and a lot of people saw him as a potential steal when the Patriots picked him up. I was in the Patriots media room when they selected Yodney last year, and a lot of Patriots beat writers and guys that follow the team regularly that were really doing a lot of homework on Kajusti said that he could probably have been either a first or second round talent if he stayed healthy.

Again, how much is that injury going to set him back? We'll never know until he actually gets out there on the field. But by all accounts, he seems to be ready to go. And as I like to say, Jay, you know I like to keep a sharp eye. I'm definitely going to have a sharp eye on Yadni Kajus this year when it comes to the offensive line. And I think you make great points on guys like Marcus Cannon, guys like Shaq Mason, somebody like Joe Tooney as well.

It's one thing to say, oh, well, the Patriots can just trade him if it's not going to work out. It's one thing to get that fair value back. It's also another thing to have the caliber players in place to be able to fill those shoes once you do jettison the veteran. So, Jay, a lot of questions surrounding the Patriots offensive line, and I thank you for indulging me in that. Again, all week long here on Locked On Patriots,

we've been discussing positional depth charts. Offensive line is one we haven't had a chance to really delve into, so I'm glad we had a chance to discuss that. And you lend your dark side wisdom and counsel when it comes to the Patriots offensive line. But, Podvator, we are just warming up with regard to our walk on that dark side. Do the New England Patriots in 2020 have an equal chance to sell or dwell as they do to contend? Well, Jay Soderbergh and I will delve into that very question in just a moment here on the Locked On Patriots podcast. Patriots fans, the podvator himself, the executive producer here at Locked On podcast, Jay Soderbergh

joins me here on the hot seat. And Jay, we previously talked a lot about the Patriots offensive line, but your concerns with this team and their ability to contend go much deeper than that. And last week, you brought to my attention the recent ESPN-FBI projections, and we discussed this a little bit offline, but I thought this would make a great topic of conversation today, and you did as well. According to the ESPN-FBI projections, they currently have the New England Patriots approximately two percentage points behind the Buffalo Bills in terms of winning the AFC East.

Now, it should be noted that these projections are mainly based off of 2019's data, but overall, I look at this as a pretty encouraging thing for Patriots fans. But once again, my friend, we have drawn a different cup of water from the same well, so to speak. And you eloquently pointed out to me that while the Patriots do have a strong case to be second in the AFC East, they also have an equally strong chance to be last in the AFC East. And they also have just as good a chance to get the number one pick in the NFL draft.

Now, I have adamantly said several times here on the Locked On Patriots podcast, the Patriots are not going to tank for Trevor. They're not going to lose for Lawrence. But I guess the argument can be made that based on some of the deficiencies in their roster and the strength of their schedule that the Patriots do have a chance to sell or dwell this year my question to you pod Vader is do the New England Patriots in 2020 have a chance to sell or dwell even if they're not quote-unquote tank Trevor. Yes, I do. And this is, and this is sort of one of the things that I like to do after the schedules come out and

we're waiting for those first, uh, training camps to start opening is I like to go through and do win loss for every single game in the NFL season leading up even through the Super Bowl. So I make these game-by-game predictions that sort of give me an idea of where I perceive each team to be. And it's similar to what ESPN did, except they did it using a computer and did a thousand simulations of games and whatnot. The problem with a lot of these projections that end up happening is a lot of them are based especially the simulations are based off of information

from the previous year and it's like those commercials past performance is not indicative of future results uh especially in football especially in football uh and so i when i look at the Patriots and the way that the roster is constructed, and we just mentioned the offensive line, we did not talk about Jared Stidham. And I have some interesting points on the quarterback position here, which maybe we can get into in the next segment. But as I look at the Patriots' situation for the upcoming season, I went through and I did my win-loss predictions for the team, and I come up with 6-10. And that's not a hard 6-10, but that's sort of when I look at the game

by game that the Patriots have to play, I see 6 wins, 10 losses. Now, within those 16 games, I have seven games that I count as a could go either way. I feel just as comfortable that they could lose as they could win. I only have three games where I feel extremely confident that the Patriots will win no matter what. And those three games are the home opener versus the Dolphins, home versus the Broncos, which is right before their bye week and the home closer versus the jets. Those are the only three games that I feel really super confident that the Patriots are going to win hands down. Those,

those are my most confident games, by the way, to the dark side, there are six games that I don't think the Patriots have a shot at winning whatsoever. And that's at Seattle, at Kansas City, home to San Francisco. Now, that one's after the bye. And teams after the bye, especially Patriots teams after the bye, that one could be a little bit more, could go either way. But I feel a little confident that the San Francisco 49ers just have that much more talented a roster than the patriots at buffalo home with the ravens and

we all know the troubles the patriots have at miami uh and especially but this year if you're going to take tom brady even out of the situation i feel even less confident about the patriots at miami and that's the other thing. Normally, when I start these game by game predictions, I usually go, okay, here's six wins for the Patriots because they're going to sweep the division every single time. This year, it's a, no, I mean, division games we know can go either way at any particular point in time. And this year is no, this year, the Patriots fall in that. So I'm going to give them a split against the division.

And when I do the split, I usually give the home team the advantage. So I see the Patriots losing their three division games away, winning their three division games at home. But you talked about Buffalo being only two percentage points behind Buffalo. I see a lot of disrespect for the Buffalo Bills right now in the national media. The Buffalo Bills are a very solid team.

I don't know what team some of these writers and some of these pundits have been watching. The Buffalo Bills are for real. I know Josh Allen has some things that he needs to work on. I was listening to Locked On NFL just the other day and was listening to Matt Williamson point out that Josh Allen has these perceptions of doing much better, but his deep ball accuracy is something that is lacking. Well, the Bills went out and got a wide receiver that can help improve Josh Allen's deep ball accuracy. I sort of relate this to Tom Brady. A lot of people think Tom Brady's a great deep ball thrower.

He's terrible at throwing the deep ball. But when you have a guy like Randy Moss in your career, he makes your deep ball accuracy a lot better than what it actually is. So Patriots Nation, how are we feeling right now? Have you been seduced by the dark side just yet? Or do you still feel confident that Stidham Skywalker can save the Patriots Jedi's?

Folks, my conversation with the Podvator himself was so in-depth, we're having him back for a second day tomorrow. Part 2 of my walk through the dark side with the Podv Vader himself will air right here tomorrow on Locked on Patriots. So much like today's episode, folks, be sure not to miss tomorrow's episode. And in fact, be sure not to miss any episode of Locked on Patriots.

And the best way to do that is to subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts. Follow us on Spotify. And don't forget, you can always listen to Locked On Patriots each and every day right on your own smart device. How do you do so? Very simple. Just ask it to play the latest episode of Locked On Patriots. And if you've enjoyed today's podcast, now tell your smart device to play the most

recent episode of Locked On NFL Draft. Once again, Patriots fans, I'm Mike DeBate. I thank Jay Soderbergh for his time, his insight, and his appearance today. But most of all, I thank you so much for listening and for staying locked into Locked On Patriots. Stay safe. Stay well. Don't be silent. Don't be compliant. Be the change you wish to see in the world. Have a great day, everyone.