Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Three Best Bets For 2025 New England Patriots | PFF Shocking Evaluation

Starting point is 00:00:00 Three of my best bets for the 2025 season. That's where we start on this episode of locked on Patriots You are locked on Patriots your daily New England Patriots podcast Part of the locked on podcast network your team every day What's up Patriots fans? I'm your host, Nick Cattles, born and raised in New England, also host of the Everything Pats podcast, also co-host of the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattles and a Sports Talk Show host veteran. On today's episode, you might be shocked

Starting point is 00:00:39 what core from this Patriots team has been labeled elite by pro football focus. Also, we dive into the last four drafts and what those drafts tell us. But first, three things I'm confident in for the 2025 season, we appreciate you joining the show, making us your first listen. And for being an every day or the lockdown Patriots podcast is a proud part of the lockdown podcast network, your team every day for the last

Starting point is 00:01:04 time, the long time, We're giving you three episodes this week, Monday, Wednesday, Friday, but we are back to five days a week next week, starting on Monday, July 14. And today's episode is brought to you by game time download the game time app create an account use code locked on NFL for $20 off your first purchase. These are not guarantees. I'm not going to sit here and guarantee you that these strings, these three things are going to happen. I'm

Starting point is 00:01:31 not going to guarantee any of these three topics that we're going to talk about here, as far as best bets in 2025. But these three things, these three topics, these three ideas are my best bets, which tells you, I would be willing to put money down on all three of these ideas that I'm going to give you these three things that I am confident in happening in this football season. And I start with the offense, I believe the Patriots, this offense has been at the bottom of the league the last

Starting point is 00:02:03 couple of years, it has been brutal to watch. One of the worst offenses really for a three year stretch. You can go back to 2022 with Matt Patricia and Joe Judge 2023, Bill O'Brien being disappointing. And then of course last year with Alex van Pelt, what we have witnessed is a crime on offense. It has been that freaking bad. And this year, I am confident one of my best bets is that this offense for the Patriots will finish in the top half of the NFL. They will be no worse than 16th in the league. And I wouldn't be surprised if they hover somewhere between 10th and 13th in the league this year. Now, why am I confident in that? Number one, I start with Josh McDaniels, one of the best offensive coordinators in football

Starting point is 00:02:46 at really any level, highly regarded for what he does. And when we look at the seasons, even without Tom Brady, there are instances of McDaniels getting the very most out of what he has from his offensive roster. And I anticipate McDaniels with one year off to study across football, to maybe throw some twink, tweaks, some wrinkles into this offense. And I expect McDaniels to use his creativity and his understanding of what defenses are trying to do and how they try to stop his offense.

Starting point is 00:03:18 I believe that we are on the precipice of one of the best seasons from Josh McDaniels as a play caller. And I think that is going to lead to this offense being in the precipice of one of the best seasons from Josh McDaniels as a play caller. And I think that is going to lead to this offense being in the top half of the NFL in 2025. And when you look at the last two seasons that McDaniels has coached for a full season in the NFL, you're looking at 2021 and 2022. 2023, halfway through the season, McDaniels was fired from Vegas. That more has to do with his head coaching style and misses than his offensive coordinator

Starting point is 00:03:52 ability. But when you look at his last two full seasons in the NFL, 2021, with the Patriots, Mack Jones and company, the Patriots finished 11th in total touchdowns that year. They had 51 with 48 rushing and receiving touchdowns and or receiving touchdowns. So 11th in total TDs in 2021. The McDaniels offense in Vegas in 2022 finished 12th in total touchdowns with 43, 40 of those rushing and or receiving. So McDaniels last two full seasons as a play caller You're talking about top 12 in touchdown scored. I Would have to believe we will see the same kind of production from this offense

Starting point is 00:04:37 Drake may ceiling I'd argue and I think it's a pretty easy argument that may is the most talented quarterback that McDaniels has had since Tom Brady. Derek Carr, not potentially the ceiling of a Drake May, especially by the time that McDaniels got him. Mack Jones, we know what was going on with Mack. Drake May is the most talented quarterback that McDaniels has had since Brady. Cam Newton in the COVID season. He was semi-washed, if not completely washed Newton by the time McDaniels had him. May brings dual threat ability, and I think that matters. He can hurt defenses not just with the arm, but with the legs. We saw McDaniels be able to use Cam in 2020 to use his running ability,

Starting point is 00:05:25 and he got the most out of it. And then I look at these running backs, the assortment of running backs that the Patriots have. If Antonio Gibson makes this roster, which right now I would put him on the roster, you've got Ramondre Stevenson, Trevion Henderson, and Antonio Gibson. Three backs in different ways dynamic.

Starting point is 00:05:43 You look at Henderson and what he can do catching the football pass protection third down back, really the perfect guy for McDaniels. Gibson dangerous catching the football dangerous running the football had a better season than Stevenson last year. And I think Stevenson is going to have a bounce back powerful runner finishes his runs always gets the extra couple of yards. So those backs get me excited within this offense. And when I think about the defense and the special teams for the Pats, that should give this offense pretty good field position.

Starting point is 00:06:14 I think you're gonna see a defense that is attacking, aggressive, and will turn the ball over. And because of that, the Patriots should have some pretty good opportunities with some great field position my second point my second best bet the Patriots Just because of Mike Vrabel alone will win two football games this year

Starting point is 00:06:36 They will be plus two on the wins just from Vrabel what I mean by that is if the Patriots were going to finish with six Wins with variable it's eight, it'd be nine, nine. You get it. You get the idea. Mike Vrabel to me is solely responsible for a couple of extra wins. His decision making is going to be so much better than what we saw by Gerard Mayo last year. And I would argue that Vrabel's decision making is going to be better than Bill Belichick's

Starting point is 00:07:04 decision making in 21, 22 and 23. We saw a decline with all due respect to Belichick, the greatest coach of all time did terrific things for more than two decades in New England. But we did see a decline with in game coaching and decision making by Belichick and we saw that decline really be obvious when Ernie Adams left. I think Vrabel along with stretch will make better decisions. He'll make better fourth down decisions. When we talk about the end of the half and how to handle that, how many times that we see the end of the half get messed up last year under Mayo?

Starting point is 00:07:41 Too many times, at least two if not three times. End of the half scenarios, Vrabel will be ready. up last year under Mayo too many times, at least two, if not three times. End of the half scenarios. Vrabel will be ready. End of game scenarios. Vrabel will be ready. Clock usage, timeout usage, how to swing field position, when to swing the field position in Vrabel. Of course, he's going to run this team as a game plan team from week to

Starting point is 00:08:04 week, things are going to change offensively and defensively, and he will have this team ready to play every single solitary week. Vrabel, just him, worth two wins to this twenty twenty five season. Here is my third and final best bet. Pop Douglas will be the top statistical wide receiver on this roster this season. Here is my third and final best bet. Pop Douglas will be the top statistical wide receiver on this roster this season. We talked about Drake May taking a step forward in year two but really year three is going to be that quote-unquote leap that you look for. This is pops third year and I think Pop

Starting point is 00:08:38 is primed to have a breakout season. His third season he understands the speed of the game, he understands what speed of the game. He understands what defenses are trying to do to take him away. And with that year three, I think we will see a nice bump from pop. And then you find out that McDaniels is having pop lineup outside from time to time. You know what that tells me? That tells me that McDaniels wants to get pop Douglas on the field because Pop was not playing on the outside really at all the first couple of seasons of his NFL career. But now they're putting them on the outside because they want him out there on the field. They

Starting point is 00:09:14 know that he is an impact player. So if Pop Douglas is getting some snaps on the outside, he's playing more than enough on the inside, I think the number of snaps that Pop gets this year might surprise some people. And we talk about explosivity in Kyle Williams and Trevion Henderson. Pop Douglas also has some explosivity that this offense will use. I think you'll see from time to time Pop Douglas used as a gadget receiver as well. And don't overlook the fact that Stefan Diggs, in my estimation, he'll be out there by week one, but I'm not going to expect a fast start from Diggs. I think he will get off to a slower start, which will open the door for Pop Douglas to

Starting point is 00:09:55 compile some of those stats in the first month of the season. So those are my three best bets. The offense finishes in the top half, thanks to McDaniels and Drake May. Mike Vrabel will alone coach this team to two extra wins this season. And Pop Douglas will end up being the top statistical wide receiver on the 53-man roster. Which core of the Patriots has been labeled analytically elite? Find out next as we continue with today's episode of lockdown patriots, part of the lockdown podcast network, your team every day.

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Starting point is 00:12:05 before. But Pro Football Focus has a stunning evaluation about the linebacker position for the Patriots. They recently put up a story where they talked about some of the elite linebacker cores in the NFL. And this story was written by Dalton Wasserman again at Pro Football Focus. And Wasserman had the Patriots as the third best linebacker core in the NFL behind only Philadelphia and Detroit. And here's what Wasserman wrote, New England's combination of old and new faces gives the team a potentially formidable linebacker unit. Robert Spillane ranks third in the NFL with a 91.2 PFF run defense grade since the start of 2023. Jelani Tavae struggled at times last season but posted an outstanding 86.6 overall

Starting point is 00:12:51 grade in 2023. Christian Ellis earned a solid 72.6 mark in his first expanded opportunity last season and ex-Titan Jack Gibbons flashed his potential with a 77.9 overall grade over the past two years and Wasserman finishes his thoughts by writing, linebacker turned head coach Mike Vrabel has to like his options at his former position this season. So here's what I'm wondering. If the Patriots do end up having a top five linebacker unit, what would the impact be on this defense?

Starting point is 00:13:24 What should we expect to be on this defense? What should we expect to see from this defense? I'm not telling you it's going to be a top five unit. We're just going off of the PFF premise. Again, they rank the Patriots third at linebacker overall. Let's just say top five. What should we expect if you have a top five linebacker core? Well number one your run defense should be much improved If you have a top five Line backer unit that means you do a good job against the run. You don't necessarily have to stack up TFL after TFL But you limit the run

Starting point is 00:14:03 You don't give up big run plays, especially in the toughest times. And when you look at the run defense from last year, some of the stats are misleading. You look at yards per carry, for example, the Patriots run defense was 14th in the league in yards per carry, right around the middle of the league. Not terrible, not awesome. When you look at 20 plus yard runs, the Patriots 13th most given up. So again, right around the middle of the pack. However, if you go off DVO a, the Patriots had the 28th ranked run defense, bottom five run defense and football last year. If you go off of Aaron Schatz's DVOA number, Evan Lazar, Patriots.com wrote about Robert

Starting point is 00:14:51 Spillane when the Patriots signed him. Spillane registered an elite 91.2 run defense grade with 34 run stops for Vegas last season. That was 12th among linebackers again via pro football focus. Spillane has literally been one of the best run defending linebackers in football for the past few seasons. He should make them better against the run. And it's not only just statistics. It's also setting the tone.

Starting point is 00:15:23 It's also understanding that when a team wants to run over you, that you're not going to allow them. Do you remember that Colts game last year? Anthony Richardson and that Colts offense ran the football down the throat of the Pats and just soaked the clock, soaked the clock, soaked the clock and beat them coming from behind in the fourth quarter in the past seemingly couldn't stop the run. They couldn't limit the run.

Starting point is 00:15:48 They couldn't do anything about it. That's tone setting. And if you're a defense and you're giving up that kind of run game to India in that kind of situation with those circumstances, it is demoralizing for you as a football team. That should be different this year. The tone should be different. The physicality should be different. We know that Mike Vrabel, Terrell Williams,

Starting point is 00:16:11 they want physicality. They want violence, as Williams always says. In this linebacker core, they do give you the potential to go sideline to sideline, which has been a major weakness of the Patriots over the past, I don't know how long. I mean, you can go back to Bill Belichick years. He believes in the big bruising linebackers.

Starting point is 00:16:35 That is not a Mike Vrabel football team. Mike Vrabel depends on quicker, more athletic, more agile and undersized, if you were comparing him to Belichick linebackers, undersized second level defenders. Guys that are 230, 225 to 230, maybe 235, 6'1", 6'2", that can fly around the field. That's what Vrebel wants. So I think if you have a top five linebacker core, you are going to be much better against the run, but it's not only against the run where you'll see some differences and improvements. Less mismatches in past

Starting point is 00:17:15 defense. We've seen at times over the past several years the Patriots get taken advantage of by offenses by putting the linebackers in difficult positions to succeed in the pass game. Because they know, Patriots rely on bigger linebackers. And that's kind of where you got the whole, okay, we'll put Duggar, we'll put Peppers down in the box at times. We'll play some hybrid safety slash linebacker. Because early down linebackers with Bentley and Tava, those guys are bigger. And that's just what Bill went with.

Starting point is 00:17:47 And at times you're going to get taken advantage of because those big guys can't necessarily snap in and snap out stay in coverage with tight ends, slot receivers, running backs. And I think with the Patriots, it's not perfect. But with Christian Ellis and Gibbons, you have two guys that are athletic enough to stay to stay competitive in coverage which is going to be a big big change and You'll see some help from the safety. You'll see some help from the nickel back and

Starting point is 00:18:17 You should be able to tackle if we're talking top five linebacker unit in the league You're gonna have your guys on the second level being capable of tackling consistently and not giving up those extra yards. Limiting the yards after the catch, yards after contact, wrap them up, take them down. And finally, run defense improved, pass defense mismatches improved, and the pass rush also improved. If you have a top five linebacker core, your pass rush will be better. We always fall in love with the idea of the defensive end, the edge pass rusher.

Starting point is 00:18:58 We always think about pass rush. We think about those guys, but you can get pass rush from different areas. You can get pass rush from the interior. You can get pass rush from the interior, you can get pass rush rush from your linebackers. And so you will not see this Patriots team only get pass rush production from Harold Landry and Keon White. The other thing you'll see a lot of with this team is simulated pressure, where your defensive lineman end up dropping in coverage, and a linebacker comes in instead. You'll see a decent amount of that with Vrabel and Terrell Williams. In linebackers, the versatility of these linebackers allow you to take advantage with some simulated pressure. Back to Evan Lazar on Spillane. Spillane logged 13 total

Starting point is 00:19:42 pressures as an interior blitzer, profiling as a fiery off-ball linebacker with an explosive downhill trigger. He can get after the quarterback. And if you have a linebacker core that is elite, if pro football focus hits this on the nose, all three levels of the defense, D line, linebackers, defensive backs, all three levels should be really good to excellent. The the one spot, the one level on this defense that you could question is linebacker. So if it's going to be elite, this defense is going to be darn good. So that was fun to read from Pro Football Focus. Alright looking at the last four drafts and how they've

Starting point is 00:20:32 impacted the Pats current roster that's coming up next as we continue with today's episode of Locked On Patriots part of the Locked On Podcast Network your team every day. your team every day. Back to back four win seasons is a product of a lot of bad football. Breaking news, Captain obvious just walked into the room. Bad offensive line play. Boy, have we seen that bad coaching. We have certainly seen that, but also bad drafting. You get bad football because you continuously swing

Starting point is 00:21:05 and miss in the draft. And Greg Bedard actually took a 30,000 foot view of the last four drafts for the Patriots, not counting 2025. So the prior four drafts. And here's what Bedard wrote at Boston Sports Journal. It would not be a shock to me if by the start of the season, the Patriots will have very little to show from their previous four drafts. And this is how Baddard breaks it down. He breaks it down into two categories, highly likely to stick and then fighting for their roster spot this summer. We're looking at the draft of 24, 23, 22, 21. Those four drafts, highly likely to stick. Bedard has one dude from last year's class, and you know who it is, that's Drake May.

Starting point is 00:21:52 The 23 draft. Bedard has four players, Christian Gonzalez, Kian White, DeMario Douglas, Bryce Baringer. So one of them, the punter. The 2022 draft, again, Bedard has one guy who is highly likely to stick on this roster from the 2022 draft, and that is Marcus Jones. And then you go back to 2021, two players highly likely to stick, Barmore and Stevenson. So May, Gonzalez, White, Douglas, Berenger, Jones, Barmore, Stevenson, that's eight. And as Badar writes, that's eight players out of 38 selected. I'm not a math genius. I'm not a football historian, but I can tell you that if you hit on eight of your 38 picks

Starting point is 00:22:45 in the draft over a four draft period, that ain't good. That's downright deplorable. Now you have guys who are fighting for their roster spot this summer. These guys could make the team. And this sets aside Joe Milton, who was already gone. So from the 2024 draft fighting for their roster spot, Polk, Wallace, Robinson, Baker, Dial, and Bell. 2023, Mapu, So, Booty, and Bolden. In 2022, Colestrange. So just the inept performance from the Patriots front office scouting department, the inept

Starting point is 00:23:30 performance in the 21, 22, 23, and 24 drafts might leave you with eight total players. And we're not even talking about all those guys being, you know, top level contributors. We're just saying making the team highly likely to stick. Now I'm going to get into how this impacts the team and how this has impacted the off seasons over the last couple of years, but I do want to point out one positive that the biggest positive from those drafts 21 through 24 is that the Patriots actually hit on some premier positions when we talk about premier positions we're talking about cornerback we're talking about pass rusher we're talking about quarterback

Starting point is 00:24:14 wide receiver one the true alpha and the Patriots actually have hit on some of the premier positions Christian Gonzalez looks like he is an absolute home run. And there are not many positions as important as a true lockdown outside corner. Gonzalez obviously looks like that kind of guy. Christian Barmore, interior impact defensive lineman that can get to the quarterback. This is becoming more and more important in the NFL.

Starting point is 00:24:49 You see a lot of guys in the middle of the defensive line causing havoc. You see offensive guards and centers getting paid more money than they've ever been paid before. And it's because of that interior pass rush and the problems that it creates. Christian Barmore hit. Keon White. If Keon White can fulfill his potential and stick at defensive end, then you have somebody who can be an impact player at one of the more important positions in the league. And then of course we save the best for last, which is the quarterback in Drake May. We all feel good about May,

Starting point is 00:25:25 or at least most of us do. I don't think it's a guarantee that he's a franchise quarterback just yet. I do want to see 2025 in full, but I think he has all the potential to be that guy. And I believe he's on his way to being that guy. And Josh McDaniels will only help him become that guy. But if you hit on May and the flashes were the flashes last year, if you hit on Drake May, then you have your franchise quarterback for the next 10 to 15 years. So even though the Patriots have been mostly

Starting point is 00:25:57 inept in the draft, you can say they hit on cornerback if we're rating it today, which we are. They hit on a cornerback. They hit on an interior pass rusher, they hit, I think, on an outside pass rusher in Keon White, and they hit on a quarterback. So four, four premium positions. So four of the eight players that are highly likely to stick on this roster are premier position guys. But then you get to the other part of this,

Starting point is 00:26:26 which is the eight of the 38 players being safe, leading you to have to hit in free agency. If you are this bad in the draft, if you're getting eight guys out of 38 picks, right? You have to be awesome in free agency. You can't miss. And we saw this last year. The drafts weren't great you go into last offseason Bringing in guys from the outside not the ones that you extended but the guys that you signed from the outside Didn't make much of an impact and because of that you won four games again So when you don't perform in the draft consistently you're putting even more pressure on your free agency hits in what you can do. And of course, free agency has its warts. Free agents trend older, you're not

Starting point is 00:27:16 going to sign guys who have been great in free agency when they're 24 25, coming off their first NFL contracts. These guys are now getting extended earlier. And that makes it tougher for teams to find true young, really good talent in free agency. So if you're banking on free agency more because you're swinging missing in the draft, you're signing older players. And free agents usually have at least one or if not multiple questions. Morgan Moses, for example, he's 34. He's coming off one of his worst seasons. There are good things about Moses, but there are questions. Carlton Davis, really solid cornerback number two, excellent at times. Number

Starting point is 00:28:03 of injuries. Gonna be 29 this season. So when you get into the free agency game, you're bringing in more questions. And when you go out and you sign free agents, are you familiar with those guys? That's a huge question. You have to have connections. You have to have that network that allows you to bring somebody in, like a Robert Spillane, for example. Finally, I would say that when you look at the 2021 draft through the 2024 draft, we're talking about a failure on multiple levels. There's not just one reason why. The GM, quote unquote, the Patriots don't use that title, but we'll just say the GM,

Starting point is 00:28:42 Belichick and Elliott Wolf, Wolf and really Mike Vrabel, who's the de facto final say for the Patriots in this regime. You know, from 21 to 24, Wolf and Belichick failed, failed on on on just a certain level that is is not going to be productive for you in the short or long term. You failed with asset management because you just wasted picks. You wasted way too many picks. Your scouting department obviously failed you. And I think your coaching staff also failed you. I think some of the story of last year's draft was a coaching staff that just wasn't good enough wasn't experienced and Didn't give enough to those young guys And of course a lot of it falls on the player themselves

Starting point is 00:29:34 But you've got to have failures at multiple levels to be that bad to have eight out of the 38 highly likely to stick but The 2025 draft brings us all hope because on paper looks like the Patriots did a very good job. We'll see if it plays out that way. That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C Radio. Don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel and don't forget to hit that like button and subscribe. Thank you for making Lockdown Patriots your first listen today. For your second listen, check out Lockdown NFL Scouting. Hosts Kyle

Starting point is 00:30:08 Krabs and Joe Marino will make you the most informed NFL fan this offseason. Find Lockdown NFL Scouting on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts. Have a great day and we will see you on Wednesday.

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Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Three Best Bets For 2025 New England Patriots | PFF Shocking Evaluation

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