Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Timeline Takes - Locked On Patriots May 16, 2019

Episode Date: May 16, 2019

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Hey there everybody, welcome on in to a Timeline Takes Thursday installment of the Lockdown Patriots podcast. Mark Schofield back in the big chair for today, Thursday, May 16th, 2019. Happy to be with you. Happy to have so many of your great questions. And it's interesting because this was a rather busy Wednesday in the National Football League. The New York Jets decided that they were going to part ways with General Manager Mike McCagnin. Somewhat of a shocking decision.

What was interesting about that, I'm going to actually talk about this to start things off here, but it was interesting. The timing for many seemed to be a little bit off. Reports of a rift last week that were put to bed by Adam Gase perhaps were actually real. And so we're going to talk about that. We also got some great questions from you as well. But before we do anything,

a reminder to follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. Check out the work at a variety of places, including InsideThePylon.com, Pro Football Weekly, The Score, Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio, and yes, that trio of SB Nation websites included Big Blue View, Bleeding Green Nation, and of course, Pat's Pulpit. Let's start with the Jets though. And it's a fascinating decision. And I know a lot of people sort of question the timing and I did get a question on this so I might as well sort of tee it up that way I got a question from a Jets fan

who I know follows me Aaron Wright Aaron White excuse me at aw underscore football honest question was McKagan the right guy to build a team around Darnold on time to make the move for sure but was it the wrong move now let's talk about the timing for a second, because it seemed like that was one of the things that sort of caught people's eye. You're going to fire somebody after the draft. But to be fair, if you sort of watch NFL front office movement, you do see a lot of movement post-draft. It's usually in the sort of scouting department realm and not the general manager, but you do see a lot of movement. And the reason for that is this. If you've got a group of people that have done the work, that have done the scouting and the evaluations and all of that,

and then come say February or March or April, you decide, oh, let's get a fire of these guys and bring out a new set of people. That's asking a lot for the new group to sort of get up to speed, get on the same page with everybody, and then go through what is a whirlwind of pre-draft activity, the combine, the pro days, senior bowl, and things like that. Now, it's a lot to do, and it's a compressed period of time. And so if you're trying to do all of that while getting a new group of people up to speed on the expectations and the schemes and the playbooks and everything you're going to be doing and everything you're

looking for from a coaching philosophy standpoint, it's a big ask. And so I don't think the timing of it should be as surprising. Look, they were picking third overall. Was anything really going to change? If you brought in a different overall. Was anything really going to change? You know, if you brought in a different general manager, were you going to not pick Quinton Williams? I mean, so I don't think the timing of it should be that much of a surprise. Now, was McKagan the right guy? And apparently, it seems like a lot of the rift was due, in part, I guess, to Le'Veon Bell. You know. We're seeing some reporting, Manish Manetta and others in the New York area saying that Gase views the acquisition of a big money running back

as perhaps not the wisest course of action. Maybe he's a member, Adam Gase, of Running Backs Don't Matter Twitter. And that's a ton in cheek reference. I think those that are espoused in the position that you can find running backs later in the draft and you don't need to command a lot of resources to that position have a very valid argument. And perhaps Adam Gase subscribes to that viewpoint. And a lot of the people at that sort of camp of thinking, that school of thought, point to the Los Angeles Rams. And you could say that if you look at the numbers and expected points added per run and plays with C.J. Anderson and Todd Gurley, for example,

at all 22 on Twitter, Betts, who is a scheme guy, has been doing some graph and some EPA stuff that shows that in terms of expected points added on wide zone plays, which is Todd Gurley's strength, Anderson actually did more and was more beneficial for the Rams last year. And that gets you to the scheme thing and the fact that maybe early running backs don't matter as much. They don't make a ton of sense from a cost-benefit standpoint.

But McCagney brings in Le'Veon Bell, gives him a big deal. So maybe that was the reason for the rift. Now what we're hearing is Daniel Jeremiah, perhaps, finding his way to New York. And so this is all a way of saying that, was this the right move? It very well might have been. If the philosophy in the organization is going to be, we're going to build around the young quarterback, we're going to get him some help, and we need to do it the right way. Maybe McKagan, in some of the moves

he made, were indicative of the fact that he wasn't the guy To do this job And so in that sense I think this is, shall we say A smart decision Maybe not that far Maybe it's Maybe the way to think about it is this

The timing of it might be off Everything seems like it's dysfunction There's sort of panic in the Jets nation, amongst Jets fans right now. You can imagine how a Jets slash Knicks fan must feel waking up on Wednesday morning. Well, we lost Zion, but at least we've got the Jets, seem to be on the right track, and then this happens.

This gets dropped on your head. But maybe this is a move made to get ahead of what could have been worse down the road because you'd rather do it now than October. Now you can get a new group in. They've said Adam Gase will be the interim general manager, but it seems like they're going to bring in some new people around the Jets, player evaluation people. You can get a new regime in, get up to speed, start the pro scouting department. You can get ready for that sort of tertiary, pre-regular season starting free agent period. You could start the next draft cycle of evaluation. And so while it may not be smart is the right word, at least it's forward

thinking. At least it is a move done with an eye towards the future and more than anything else in today's NFL. Identifying problems early, starting to think two, three, four years down the road, that's the name of the game. The teams that are successful are those that take a forward thinking approach. The Patriots, the Eagles. And this is a forward thinking move by the Jets. And so I think in that sense, you have to give them some credit. Up next, we're going to talk some more Patriots stuff though. I got a lot of questions that I want to get to. So that is ahead on this Thursday installment of Locked on Patriots. Mark Schofield back with you now on this Thursday installment of Locked on Patriots, your favorite daily Patriots podcast. And before diving into the rest of your questions, want to plug something?

The one and only Bob Sochi, the voice of the Patriots, was kind enough to have me on his podcast. We recorded that on Wednesday, so look for that soon. Over at 98.5, the Sports Hub, talking a little bit about the Patriots, their additions the quarterback position jared stidham the rest of the afc east it was a fun conversation with bob eternally grateful for him having me on you know he had me on last year's having me on again this year just really appreciate him and all he's done so again look for that of course i'll be

tweeting out on the timeline at mark schofield Let's get to some of your questions here. This is from Brady Forces Jets fans to cry at Pats underscore 1988 on the Twitter machine. Hey, Mark, if Devin McCourty retires after the next season, do you see his replacement on the Pats roster? What are your thoughts on Jonathan Jones, Duke Dawson, J.C. Jackson, Keon Cross, or Jawan Williams playing free safety or replacing Chun at the strong safety position? Best regards from Austria. Thanks. And thank you for listening all the way from Austria. That's one of the things I love about doing the show is I'll look at the numbers, the reports on listeners and seeing people all over the world. I love seeing it.

So thank you for listening. Thank you for the question. As far as replacing McCourty, I'm not so sure that I see right now a player with the skill set to perhaps replace Devin McCourty other than perhaps his brother, Jason McCourty. Now they tried him a little bit at safety last year and let's not forget perhaps the pivotal play of Super Bowl 53 was Jason McCourty dropping into a deep safety position in the middle of the field to break up that throw intended for Brandon Cooks, which would have been a touchdown. But Devin McCourty had the presence of mind and the awareness and as well as remembering that prior to that drive or at some point before that drive, they made the call.

Brian Flores told them when they went to that coverage and they showed that crossing route and Devin McCourty cut it, jumped it, somebody had to fill in the middle of the field. And so he was aware, he was told to do it, and he did it. That was a free safety type play. Interestingly enough, I'm not so sure I see a Juwan Williams filling sort of the free safety role. I'm not so sure I see. I know they added Malik Gant, who is a free safety in college, showed some ability to do that from Marshall. He also played some strong safety as well. Maybe he's more of a guy that could perhaps replace Chun. I see more Chun replacements than I do see McCourty replacements out of the new guys.

Gant may be more of a Chun replacement. I think Williams, we've talked about when they drafted him, might be more of a Chun replacement. Although if there is a player to perhaps keep an eye on, it's Ken Webster, who might have to find a role as a safety because he doesn't have the coverage skills to be a corner, I don't think, in the National Football League. And he's shown some ability in sort of those cover three situations, whether along the boundary or in the middle of the field, to make some safety-type plays.

And so if there's anybody to put in that category as a potential McCourty replacement, he might be the guy. Next question comes to us from the one and only John Lamarakis, who, fantastic friend of the show, fantastic guest. He was on our draft day show. You heard John on the podcast at J-O-H-N-A-L-I-M-B-E-R-A-K-I-S. Please do give John a follow on Twitter. Fantastic podcast.

Mark, when you think about the guys they have on the roster now, and assuming we don't see Gordie or Demaryius Thomas until at least midway through the year, what personnel group do you think the Patriots will run the most on offense? And what's interesting about this, and I actually talked about this with Bob Sochi on his podcast, and we know that the Patriots view the season sort of incrementally. You want to know how you're doing four games in, halfway point, quarter pool. You want to be playing your best football in December, in January, rather than September and October. And they have shown over the course of the years, the ability to evolve as a team

during the course of a season. They started out last year looking to spread you out four wide, three wide, a lot of 11 personnel. But by the end of the year, they were a 21 personnel team. And interestingly enough, I'm actually working on a piece right now. I don't know where I'm going to put it, probably over at Inside the Pylon about personnel frequency and how people like McDaniels and McVay and Kyle Shanahan use personnel to dictate what they want from the defense and then exploit it. You look at personnel usage in the 2018 season, and predominantly 11 offensive personnel, three wide receivers, was used on 66% of all offensive snaps. Now, you get to 21 personnel, three wide receivers, was used on 66% of all offensive snaps. Now, you get to 21 personnel, two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end. Only two teams, two teams used it more than 15% of the time. The San Francisco 49ers, who used it on 42% of their offensive snaps, 230 plays.

And the New England Patriots, who used it on 28% of their snaps, 220 plays. And looking at them on 21 personnel, they had a successful play rate of 55%, meaning they achieved a yardage gain that was successful. I think it's like five yards on first down. You get like basically two-thirds of what you need on first and second down, and then you convert it on third down. I think that's how they define it. I have to double-check that.

But their successful play rate of 55% on 21 personnel was better than they were at 11 personnel, which was just 51. And you look at their ability to throw the football, they threw the ball 41% of the time they were in 21 personnel. Successful pass percentage rate of 59%. 91 dropbacks, 90 passes attempted, 59 passes completed for a passer rated of 99.2 four touchdowns one interception 7.7 yards per attempt 7.9 yard air yards per attempt and those numbers at least the air yards per attempt were better out of 21 personnel than they were out of 11 personnel but don't forget 21 personnel was also effective on the ground for them they They ran it 59% of the time.

51% of their plays were successful when they ran it out of 21 personnel. 129 rushing attempts, 5 rushing touchdowns, 4.9 yards per carry. Their yards per carry out of 11, just 4.3. So you put that all together, I anticipate New England being a 21 personnel team, at least at the start of the year. Now, will they be a 21 personnel team, at least at the start of the year. Now, will they be a 21 personnel team at the end of the year? Ask me in December. Next question comes to us from the one and only Ian McDonald at Ian, I-A-N-C-M-A-C-D-O-N-A-L-D.

Can you do a rapid fire rundown of your best guesses of which draftees and undrafted free agents or all free agents might make the roster or practice squad? And this will be fun here. Trying to get through it. I think obviously Harry, I think you can say he's a lock for the roster. I don't think they're going to cut their first round draft choice. I think Kajus is a lock. I think Frohold is a lock. I think Stidham is a lock. Harris is going to be interested. I would assume he's a lock to make this roster. I'm going to be curious to see how that shakes out. Would they move on from a Rex Burkhead? Would they bring in Brandon Bolden and move on from him? Harris is going to show that he can contribute on special teams. I think so. But I think he's probably a guy that could make it. Winovich, I think, is a lock. Cowart, more of a bubble guy.

I think Williams is a lock. When you look at some of the undrafted free agent guys, Terrez Hall is probably a bubble guy. Malik Gant, bubble guy. Ken Webster, bubble guy. He's probably a practice squad candidate. D'Angelo Ross, bubble guy. Stidham, yeah, he's making this team.

He's making this team. He's making this team. Jacoby Myers, Ryan Davis, Tyler Garthur, Tyree St. Louis, Andrew Beck. I think those are all bubble guys. Beck, I think, given the guaranteed money they showed him, probably a practice squad guy. Myers is interested in that. And same thing with Ryan Davis. If you see injuries in the Gordon situation, so Harris can't contribute right away. If we don't get what we're expecting from Braxton Berrios, those guys have chances to stick on this

roster. I think out of the undrafted guys, Jacoby Myers and Ryan Davis, the two wide receivers, probably have the best chances to sort of stick. Then there's Jake Bailey. If he can handle kickoffs, if he can handle holding for field goals and extra points, maybe Ryan Allen becomes expendable. So that will be interesting to watch. I think some of the free agent acquisitions, Demarius Thomas is probably close to a lock. Veltier, who they just added in, they're probably close to locks. And I think Michael Bennett sticks as well. So I think most of these players stick. We'll see what they can get from Benjamin Watson, Austin Safarian-Jakins as well,

and Matt Lacoste. It's going to be interesting to see that tight end position, how that shakes out. But I think those three guys probably stick. And the guys on the outside looking in would be Steven Anderson, Ryan Izzo, Jacob Johnson, the international player. Curious to see what they get from him. So that will do it for this portion. We're going to close it out with some more questions from you, the listeners.

Fantastic to hear from you. That's ahead. We're going to talk the rest of the AFC East. We're going to talk also some of the other additions that were made and some secondary stuff, some late round guys, and of course the quarterback position. So that is all ahead of this Timeline Takes installment of Locked on Patriots. Mark Schofield back with you now.

I'm going to close out this Thursday installment of the Locked on Patriots podcast. And we did get a bit of news today. The Patriots bringing back Jamie Collins, a linebacker most recently with the Cleveland Browns, but who did start his career as a Patriots second-round draft pick in 2013. He's appeared in a combined 57 regular season and playoff games for the Patriots. He spent two and a half years with the Cleveland Browns. He won a Super Bowl with them in 2014. Now he returns to the fold.

And what's interesting about this is they have now a bunch of flexibility at the second level of this defense. You look at the Patriots and linebacker group right now. Obviously, we know Kyle Van Nooyen. We know Dante Hightower. We had the addition of Juwan Bentley, who before his injury seemed to be like a very good piece for this defense. Landon Roberts, more of that two-down thumper type of guy. Christian Sam, who basically took a redshirt type of season last year, more of the athletic type of linebacker.

They added Therese Hall, an undrafted free agent from Missouri. Now Collins, they've got a lot of flexibility. He can do some things off the edge. He can do some things in blitz packages. And what's interesting is this. Gerard Mayo, Patriots' new inside linebackers coach knows him these guys played alongside each other from 2013 to 2015 and you would expect the collins there won't be a big learning curve or anything like that now this does mean that they're going to

have to move somebody you know they have 90 guys under contract right now, so they're going to have to move somebody. And is he a roster lock? Maybe, maybe not. You know, he left New England on, you know, not the best of terms. And so we'll see if he does solidify a position. But, you know, that leads us to sort of the next question that I wanted to hit. It comes to us from one of our great friends and listeners of the show, Isaac Gogol. You can follow him on Twitter at XXIS, A-A-C-G-O-G-E-L-X-X. Would you say that this is the best defense since 2004, even better? Does Collins give them that ability to

rush the passer that they don't previously have. And that's a lofty comparison. I think this is on paper is a very talented defense. I think you look at the addition of Collins, the addition of Chase Winovich, the addition of Michael Bennett, they're going to have some pass rush packages they can put together. You look at the athleticism in the second level, I think the Collins addition helps that. I think getting Bentley back, getting Christian Salmon to the fold would help that as well. I think you look at the secondary and you've got basically last year's Super Bowl winning secondary coming back plus the addition of Joanne Williams, what you're going to get from Obi-Mellon Fonu. So this could be a very good group as well and

this was a very good defense last year. Is it going to be up to the level of some of these other great defenses we've seen? That remains to be seen. But I'd say in this sort of, you know, last installment, most recent installment of the Brady Belichick Super Bowl-type teams, this is probably the best defense they've had, obviously, maybe since that Seahawks Super Bowl. That was a good defense.

They won the game on a defensive play. But I think on paper, it's a very good defense. But it's May, and we don't know what this defense will look like once the season starts. We don't know what this defense is going like once the season starts. We don't know what this defense is going to look like once the games get going. And so that part of it remains to be seen. Let's close it out now with a question via the Locked On Patriots Slack channel from

the one and only David Archibald, great friend of the show, great friend of the Patriots fan base as well, with some of the great work he does over at inside the pylon and of course the locked on Patriots Slack channel and he asks via the locked on Patriots Slack channel he wants to know this what do we think about the rest of the moves made by the AFC opponents specifically who are the best offseason of the AFC East opponents and what's interesting about and I've said it before I'll say it again offseason draft time it's that one and only chance to really get a window into the thinking of an organization and we saw all of these teams make some good additions you know you look at Buffalo and I love the additions that they made obviously

at all of our falls to you at. That's a fantastic pick for them. Adding Cody Ford is going to help their offensive line, and they made some nice acquisitions at the offensive line spot. Dawson Knox, Devin Singletary in the third round, I think were very good picks for them. The addition of Cole Beasley I think is going to be huge for them. I've gotten a chance to study Cole Beasley. I think he's an extremely talented wide receiver

you know sort of in that mold of a Wes Welker or Julian Edelman as a guy that always finds himself open and this was a good defense last year the big hole was the loss of Kyle Williams to slide Ed Oliver in there that's a pretty decent way to replicate what you were getting there and so I think the Buffalo Bills had a very good offseason. Very good offseason.

Now, was it the best of these teams? Let's talk about the Jets for a moment. They get Quinton Williams at three, arguably the most complete player in this draft class. And outside of that, look, Jahashi Polite had some first-round buzz. We'll see what they get from him, you know, in the third round. Chuma Adoga in the third round. You know, they didn't

have a ton of draft picks so they filled in where they could obviously the two big big acquisitions levion bell cj mosley spent a lot of money there some other additions you know jamison crowder josh bellamy so they've added some pieces i think between these two teams a lot of it hinges on levion bell a lot of it hinges on cj moseon Bell. A lot of it hinges on C.J. Mosley. If they perform to the standards that we've seen from them in the past, it would look like the Jets had the best offseason. But those are two veterans, and sometimes veteran signings don't pan out. Look at D'Alias Thomas, for example. Jameson Crowder has had his ups and downs. And so I think the additions that Buffalo made, I think I feel a little bit better about them. But now let's talk about the Dolphins.

I don't think anybody expects the Dolphins to contend anytime soon. They're probably two years away. But Josh Rosen, if he pans out, might have been the best move of this draft. To get him for just a second rounder, I think was a very smart move by them. Adding Christian Wilkins, getting him where they did in the draft. Fantastic interior defensive lineman. You can slot him in at right tackle. He's going to get them that push on the interior.

Now they'll have to get some spots in filled in around him. Michael Dieter, the guard from Wisconsin, getting him in the third round, I think was a fantastic pick. The addition of Miles Gaskin, who was one of my favorite running backs in this class, to get him in the seventh round. Very nice pick. Nick Needham, the cornerback, who we studied over at Inside the Pylon from UTEP.

They got him as an undrafted free agent. He brings a lot of nice traits to the cornerback position. So I like what the Dolphins did. I like what all three of these teams did. If I was forced to choose among which team had the best offseason, I would go with the Buffalo Bills. I like some of the veterans that they added, Beasley and Frank Gore. I like the Ed Oliver pick

to get him at nine. I think it's just a fantastic acquisition to slot him in on a defense that was very good to begin with. The name of the game for all three of these teams now is to help the rookie quarterback, and I think the Buffalo Bills did a really good job of doing that. They threw a lot of pieces, a lot of different components of the offensive line to sort of try to fix

that. You know, in addition to drafting Cody Ford, talking about, you know, adding in guys like Mitchell Morse, who was a very good center, Ty Neskey,

right tackle from Washington, Adrian Waddle from New England. Now they spent some money to sort of solidify this offensive line position. Quinton Spain, bringing him over from Tennessee. Another acquisition, slotting him in perhaps at left guard. Now three new names up front via free agency. And then if you slot Cody Ford in at that right guard spot, four new guys. But they needed some offensive line help.

If they get that, if they get Beasley working the way that he does in the middle of the field, they can do some matchup stuff with that stable of running backs. If they get something from Tyler Croft, if Dawson Knox can contribute at the tight end spot, this might be a much better offense. So I think the Buffalo Bills had a really good offseason. But speaking of offseasons, it's time for my night off. That will do it

for today. Putting the show to bed. I'll be back tomorrow. What are we going to do tomorrow? I don't know. I'll figure it out. But until then, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield and Locked on Patriots. Thank you.