Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Twist: New England Patriots' Schedule Shifts From Feared to Manageable?

Starting point is 00:00:00 The 2026 schedule will be released later this week, but we have the latest strength of schedule rankings, and we don't necessarily agree with them. This is Locked-on Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcasts network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host, Nick Cattels. On today's episode, the somewhat surprising report from Mike Reese. about the Pat's internal thoughts of the Eli Rairden pick.

Starting point is 00:00:39 In the second segment, the game continues to evolve, and the Pat's are evolving along with it. But first, getting a better feel for the Pat's strength of schedule. Today's episode is brought to by GameTime. Download the GameTime app, create an account, and use code lockdown for $20 off your first purchase. The schedule will be released this week. It will officially be released on Thursday night.

Starting point is 00:01:05 Of course, we're going to get leaks all week. Don't believe everything you see on social media, folks. People are going to be posting fake schedules constantly this week. Believe in what you see from Adam Schefter and Ian Rappaport and some of our very best local reporters, Andrew Callahan, Doug Kye, Greg Bedard, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. But just don't believe everything that you see. This is a dangerous week if you want to get ahead of all the schedule making and the official. release. So don't buy into everything that you see. But because Schedule Week is this week, there are going to be lots of conversations about the strength of schedule. Now, if you remember,

Starting point is 00:01:47 towards the tail end of the 2025 season, a lot of people, including myself, were mentioning how tough the schedule was going to be in 2026. When everything was said and done, the Patriots, of course, get the first place schedule. And it was loaded with a bunch of teams that were good, if not very good. And there was a lot of talk at the end of last year, through the playoffs, right after the Super Bowl, Patriots have one of, if not the hardest schedule in all of the NFL. Well, here is an update from Warren Sharp, the Sharp Football Analysis.com listed the strength of schedules.

Starting point is 00:02:27 And here's what Warren Sharp wrote. With odds released for all 32 NFL teams, we are now able to calculate NFL strength of schedule using projected win totals from Vegas odds makers. So let's run through this. The NFL teams, the five teams with the easiest schedule in 2026 if you are using the projected wind totals from Vegas, the lions, the saints, the Bengals, the Browns, the Jets, the five easiest schedules in 2026. The five hardest schedules in 26.

Starting point is 00:03:02 The Cardinals, the Dolphins, the Panthers, the Carthors, the Codels. Cowboys, the Rams, not the Patriots. So if you are just using the projected wind totals from Vegas trying to figure out strength of schedule, the Patriots are not one of the five hardest schedules this upcoming year. So where do they fall? Where are the Patriots ranking 1 to 32 in strength of schedule? They're 12th. if you go off the projected win totals from Vegas, the Patriots have the 12th hardest schedule in the NFL.

Starting point is 00:03:40 Of course, there are 32 teams. So they're getting close to about middle of the pack when it comes to the strength of schedule. And some might say, Nick, how's this happen? Again, we're talking about it late in 2025 during that season. When the Super Bowl is over, we're all talking about how incredibly difficult this schedule is going to be. well, when people start to post things about strength of schedule, when we find out all the opponents, right?

Starting point is 00:04:07 We don't know exactly when these games are going to be played just yet, but we get the opponents right as the season is ending. Well, when you look at that schedule, when you look at those teams, when you put together, when you're compiling a strength of schedule at that time, before free agency, before the draft, what you use is the winning percentage of those teams in the year that you're talking about, right? So if you're looking at the 2026 schedule, you go, man, the Patriot schedule loaded with so many good teams, you are using the win percentage of those teams collectively from 2025. So this is the more accurate strength of schedule. Because if you're looking at what the teams actually did, what their rosters are right, Now, currently constituted Vegas over under numbers for 2026 is a much better gauge than win

Starting point is 00:05:06 percentage in 2025. And it's not just because of how the rosters are currently constituted versus what these rosters looked like going back a few months ago. It is also the idea of win percentages can fluctuate from year to year. And so what teams played what teams matter? If you're taught about the Patriots having a killer schedule in 2026 and you're basing that off of those teams win percentage in 2025, well, who did those teams play and who was injured at the time and all that stuff. So it really is a more accurate strength of schedule to use the Vegas over under numbers once free agency is done, once you get through the draft. Now, of course, moves can still happen.

Starting point is 00:05:51 What's up, AJ Brown? Things can still happen, which could change the math. a little bit. But right now, instead of you're looking at the Patriot strength of schedule, which when you're going back to, you know, late 25, you're going through the playoffs, the Patriots, if you're basing it off win percentage in 2025, the Patriots had the sixth hardest schedule in the league. So they have dropped from six to 12 based on what has happened during this offseason. Now, of course, there is a lot of information missing here. We don't know the prime time schedule the Patriots will have.

Starting point is 00:06:26 Be ready. I will tell all Patriots fans out there. Be ready for three, four, maybe even as many as five primetime games because the Pats went to the Super Bowl and the Pats are a very popular team, whether it's to chair for them or hate them. They are very popular. They draw a lot of eyeballs. So we don't know the primetime games.

Starting point is 00:06:46 We don't know the non-sunday games. Will the Patriots be stuck on Thursday? Thanksgiving, for example. We don't know. When is the buy week? We don't know. We know the Patriots have had the same by week the last two years. And if the Patriots have a week 14 buy again, I'm moving furniture in my house.

Starting point is 00:07:04 So we'll see when the buy week is going to be. Of course, travel is big? How much is the team traveling? Are they traveling in bunches if they're playing in California, which they are a couple times this year? Do they get both of those games out on the West Coast? Do they have back-to-back West Coast games, which will help the travel,

Starting point is 00:07:24 or does the NFL make them fly back to New England in between those games? All of that matters. All of it matters. The home and away split, you know, are you playing three or four games on the road? And consecutively, that can impact things. When do you play the best teams? Do you get them late? Do you get them early?

Starting point is 00:07:43 Do you get them in the middle of the year? Do you have a string of incredibly difficult games? Do you have to play those really good teams after traveling? Do you have to play those good teams on short weeks? So there's a lot of context. There's a lot of information that we have to gather, and that'll happen later this week. But as of right now, strength of schedule,

Starting point is 00:08:03 just on paper, who you're playing and how good they are after this off season, you ranked 12th instead of 6th. Schedule a little bit easier, according to the Vegas odds makers. Now, I'll give you a refresher on the teams. Again, we don't know when these games are going to be played. but the home schedule, I'll put them in tiers. So the lower tier is the Jets, the dolphins, and the Raiders.

Starting point is 00:08:31 Those three teams will be playing at Gillette. The mid-tier, I'll put Minnesota in there because we've got to figure out the quarterback thing. Tyler Murray, is he really going to be busting out at the seams and being great for Kevin O'Connell, J.J. McCarthy, that quarterback competition. I'll put Minnesota and Pittsburgh in the middle tier. The top tier, Green Bay, Denver, Buffalo. So those are your home games. You got three games against teams you should clock.

Starting point is 00:08:58 The Jets, the dolphins, the Raiders. You've got two interesting games. You should win, but they won't be easy in Minnesota and Pittsburgh. And then you've got three really tough games at home, Green Bay, Denver, Buffalo. Oway is where you got a lot going on. Again, lower tier because of your division. You get the Jets and you've got the dolphins in New Jersey, in Miami, respectively. and then you've got just seven games, which it's not crazy to say that all of these seven teams

Starting point is 00:09:29 could be playoff teams when 2026 is over. Because aside from the Jets and the Dolphins, on the road, you play the Bills, you play the Seahawks, you play the bears, you play the lions, you play the chiefs, you play the Chargers, you play the Jaguars. it is not crazy to believe that you could have, you know, six or seven out of those seven teams make it to the postseason. And that's why I would still rank the Patriots pretty high when it comes to strength of schedule. And I think their strength of schedule is dinged because when you're looking forward here,

Starting point is 00:10:09 you know, you're looking at the jets, you're looking at the dolphins, what is there over under the Raiders? you know, some of these teams really lower the Patriots strength of schedule because of the over-unders. But then when you're looking at some of these other teams, man, you know, Kansas City, what if Patrick Mahomes is ready day one? That dramatically skews the chiefs. So there's just a lot of things that, you know, I look at, I still think this is a very difficult schedule. And that road schedule is just a murderer's row. Again, the bills, the Seahawks, the Bears, the Bears,

Starting point is 00:10:44 the lions, the chiefs, the chargers, the jags, that is tough. But Vegas would tell you not as tough as we thought it was going to be a few months ago. Coming up, offense has made a dramatic shift in the NFL and the paths are shifting with it. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. Today's episode is brought you by Indeed. You know that feeling when you're overwhelmed at work and you just, We just need one more reliable person on the team to get things back on track.

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Starting point is 00:12:08 This is a job for Indeed sponsored jobs. All we talk about is pass rush, pass rush, pass rush. But the truth, the truth is that NFL offenses have found ways to combat the pass rush. And the Pat's offseason plan tells us that the Patriots understand that. We'll get to that in a minute. Just want to thank you for making us your first listen for being an everydayer. Don't forget to check out the Everydayer Club for ad-free episodes and access to a group chat with other listeners of this show. Tap the link in the show notes.

Starting point is 00:12:43 To find out more, we're to lockdown Patriots.supercast.com. And of course, don't forget, if you're watching on YouTube, help us out, click that thumbs up, give us a like, throw a comment in as well. What do you think about the strength of schedule? And don't forget to subscribe. I just checked it. We're about 9,640 subscribers trying to get to 10,000. Somehow, some way, we lost some subscribers over the weekend, just randomly.

Starting point is 00:13:07 They were added and they were taken away. I don't know what's happening. But help us out. Click that thumbs up, comment. and subscribe. So the Patriots have upgraded at edge. And I do think they have more juice on the edge with Gabe Accus over Anthony Jennings. And Draymond Jones, Calebon Chase on, I think probably I would give the edge to

Starting point is 00:13:30 Draymont Jones because he can rush from the inside. But it's not just about the rush. And I fall into this too. I talk about the past rush a ton because we fall in love with the past rush. But when we look at the edge and we look at what the Patriots have done this offseason, it is not just about the pass rush because the Patriots have, I think, intentionally focused on improving against the run on the edge. Dremont Jones, again, pretty similar pass rusher to Caleb on Chase on when you look at pressures and all that stuff. but I would say Draymont Jones a tick ahead of Chason because of that versatility.

Starting point is 00:14:13 But the other reason why that I think Draymont Jones is better for the Patriots than Chason was last year, with all due respect to Chason who exceeded expectations, it was an impact player for them. The reason why I think Jones is slightly better than Chason and a better fit is because Jones can play the run better than Chason. Now, Gabe Accus, little inconsistent at Illinois against the run, but he can set the edge. He's shown that on film, and I think he's got three down potential. So the Patriots to me, they have improved

Starting point is 00:14:45 because Accus has that three down potential, plus he has more pass rushing juice than Anthony Jennings, and Jones again, better than Chase on. But what the Patriots are also doing is not only trying to be better all around just that edge and improving the edge position, they're evolving with the game. Because what we are seeing in the NFL

Starting point is 00:15:04 is that offenses are running the football more and more. Running the football is becoming important again. I don't want to sit here and tell you we're going back to the 1980s or anything, but running the football is more important now than it has been in some time. And Nate Tice, I think he works at Yahoo now. He posted a few months ago, I stuck this in my back pocket, stuck a pin in this. But Nate Tice posted, offenses ran the ball at the, highest rate since 2011, had the highest rushing success rate on running back runs since 2004,

Starting point is 00:15:43 and they also used two or fewer wide receivers at the highest rate since 2014. The Patriots, they see these numbers. They see these analytics. The Patriots understand that offenses ran the ball at the highest rate since 2011, just under 41%. The Patriots understand that the highest rushing success rate on running back runs happened in 2025 since you had to go back to 2004. The Patriots see these personnel packages. They understand that offenses are now using two or fewer wide receivers at the highest rate in more than a decade.

Starting point is 00:16:22 They get this. And the moves they made this offseason tell you they get this. Now, yes, you could argue Anthony Jennings and keeping Anthony Jennings, who was the best edge defender against the run for the Patriots, especially when Harold Landry went down with his injury. You could argue that means the Patriots are not taking it as seriously. But as I said, I believe Gabe Accus can set the edge. I believe Gabe Accus is going to be able to be a three-down player at the NFL level.

Starting point is 00:16:48 And I think his potential is higher than Jennings. We know what Jennings was. And if you are not good against the run on early downs, you don't have to necessarily be great against the run on early down. downs, but if you're not good on early downs, life gets difficult. It is going to impact your efficiency on third down as a defense. Because if you are allowing teams to run on you, they're looking at third and two, third and three, and it quickly becomes a mess.

Starting point is 00:17:20 So you've got to be better against the run on first and second down. That's not all. Again, I'll say it, stick a pin in that because we'll talk about third down offense in a minute, but just the idea of going into a game on Sunday, you have to know that the trend right now in the NFL is bigger personnel packages running the football at a higher rate. How do you combat that? You got to have dudes on the defensive line that can play against the run. If you have a two-way edge, or even better if you got a couple of two-way edges, that will

Starting point is 00:17:59 keep the offense from dictating the terms that will restrict the offense and the personnel that that offense can use. And so, for example, when you've got Caleb-on Chase-on out there, teams know we can run at that guy. Teams know we can throw size at that guy, and he's going to have a problem. Now, I do think Chase-on tried. He gave the effort. At times, he was able to hold his own.

Starting point is 00:18:26 but teams going in to Sundays said, we can attack the edge of K. Levan Chesa. We can run the football to the left side. We can test him. And so when you have two edges out there, if Harold Landry is really good against the run, you have Landry, you have Draymont Jones on early downs, two guys who are good against the run,

Starting point is 00:18:50 you are now, if you're not dictating the terms and the personnel, you're absolutely playing a role in it. And that matters. Back to Nate Tice. In the NFL, we just saw the highest rate of snaps with six offensive linemen since 2016. More six offensive line snaps.

Starting point is 00:19:15 More six offensive linemen snaps than we had seen going back almost a decade. It happened in 2025. We talked about the Patriots. I didn't think they did it enough in the postseason, frankly. with that sixth offensive lineman playing jumbo. That was something we saw across the league last year. Nate Tice also mentions that, you know,

Starting point is 00:19:34 running the ball on third down in three yards or more, offenses ran the ball at the highest rate ever on third down in three or more yards. And that is, again, you're trying to take advantage of those substitute pass rushers. A lot of teams, they have these subpass rushers. These guys come in, they're a little light in the took-took, right? The Josh Uchase of the world.

Starting point is 00:19:58 Little light in the tookus. And offenses, see it, okay, it's three and four, right? So you got a third and four, and the defense throws out a subpass rusher, maybe two sub-pass rushers. Well, now the offenses are reacting to that, and they're running the football at those sub-pass rushers. And they're getting first downs. They're moving to change.

Starting point is 00:20:23 So the more edges that you have on your roster that can play both the run and the past, the better off you are. You're handcuffing the offense. And I think it's rather obvious the Patriots understand this. And I think it could be part of the reason why Caleb-on-Cheson signed the type of contract that he signed. Because teams, they study, they understand the trends of the game. And teams are running the football more and more. You better have guys on the edge that can contain that edge and can play good against the run. Doesn't have to be the number one thing they do, but they've got to be decent at it.

Starting point is 00:21:05 If you think I loved the Eli Raredon pick, wait until you hear the latest from Mike Reese. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. We can stream anything, order food and minutes, do everything from our phones, and somehow buying tickets to live events still feels way harder than it should. be long lines confusing checkout prices jumping at the last second it shouldn't be that complicated that's why there's game time it gives fans the advantage it makes getting tickets fast and simple looking at tickets for an upcoming game and it takes your minutes to find great options you see the full price upfront no surprise fees at checkout in the seat views they're huge you can check your exact view

Starting point is 00:21:52 before you buy take the guesswork out of buying tickets to every type of a event with game time, concerts, games, whatever. Download the GameTime app, create an account, and use code lockdown for $20 off your first purchase terms apply. Again, create an account and redeem code L-O-C-K-E-D-O-N for $20 off. Download the GameTime app today. Some thought I was a little over the top, probably, with my excitement from the Eli Rairden pick draft weekend.

Starting point is 00:22:29 But according to Mike Reese, the Pats. might have been even higher on the Notre Dame tight end. Thanks for checking out the Lockdown Podcast Network, now the number one sports podcast network. Most of you know this by now. But if not, I loved the Eli Rairden pick. Apparently, I was not alone because Rairdon has his fans at Gillette. Now, of course, that's rather obvious because the Patriots picked Eli Rairden,

Starting point is 00:22:57 but Mike Reese shined a light on how highly the Patriots thought of Rairden during the draft over the weekend at ESPN.com. Reese wrote, Eli Rairden's maturity and athletic gifts are among the reasons the Patriots had him

Starting point is 00:23:15 as the top rated player on their board when it was time to pick. Eli Rairden was the top rated player on their entire board by the time they got to pick 95. More from Rees. Rarden was the ninth tight end selected overall, but sources say the Patriots had him ranked considerably higher.

Starting point is 00:23:42 Executive Vice President of Player Personnel, Elliot Wolf, referred to Rairden as a tremendous athlete while noting someone tapped potential there with only one year of real playing, as scouts saw him coming into his own through the season. So again, the Patriots, according to Mike Reese, who was one of the best in the game, Patriots had Raritan as the top rated player on their board when they get to 95. Not only that, the Patriots had Rarden ranked considerably higher than the ninth tight end in this class. So according to Reese, the Patriots, they went best player available.

Starting point is 00:24:21 Now, of course, they could be playing the game. of course they could be leaking this to make the Raarden pick sound even better. I get that, you get that, we all get that. But let's go off what Mike Reese is writing. Let's go off what the sources are saying. And if Eli Raarden was indeed the top ranked player on their board when they got to 95, they went with best player available and it wasn't necessarily we've got to pick a tight end here. Now, the considerably higher than the ninth tight end in the class,

Starting point is 00:24:56 I agree with that. I've said that from day one. It's one of the reasons why I loved the pick. Eli Raiden to me was absolutely a top five tight end in this class. And you could argue that he's a top three tight end in this class. You're going to have Kenyon Saddeka ahead of him. You're going to have Eli Stowers ahead of him. But if you think Eli Stowers is more receiver than tight end,

Starting point is 00:25:18 then you might not have Eli Stowers ranked ahead of Eli Raherding because Raarden is an absolute, no doubt, unequivocal tight end. So I absolutely agree that Rairden is considerably higher if you were to rank the pure tight ends in this draft. He is not anywhere near the ninth guy in that class. But the biggest contribution, let's not get it twisted. The biggest contribution of Rairden is going to be long term. It's not going to be right away. He still has to add weight.

Starting point is 00:25:53 He still has to add play strength. I think he'll play in 2026. We just talked about it last segment. Teams running the football more. Teams playing two tight ends. Teams playing three tight ends more and more. So I do think Eli Raarden will play in 2026. I think he'll get a decent amount of snaps.

Starting point is 00:26:12 I think he'll make some impact plays. But really, we're talking about 2027, hopefully being his coming out time, as a, you know, legitimate NFL, tight end, a dude who could be a number one tight end in the league. That's more 2027 than it is 2026, but Gillette Stadium loved it. And they think they got a guy in Eli Rairden, and I happen to agree with them.

Starting point is 00:26:41 All right, some leftovers from minicamp practice. Contavius Hutchins left practice with an undisclosed injury. This is pretty interesting. We don't know what type of injury it was. We don't really have any idea. But now you look at Edge because, you know, Quintavius Hutchins was somebody who was going to battle other guys for that fifth spot, right? He was battling Braden Swinson. You would have to say he's going to battle Jesse Lucetta for that number five spot at Edge.

Starting point is 00:27:12 You feel like Landry Jones, Elijah Ponder, Akis, those are your top four. But then you get Lucetta, Swinson, Hutchins. And interestingly enough, the Patriots. Monday added another player who was a mini-camp invite, Xavier Holmes, Xavier Holmes from James Madison, who is also an edge, has been added to the roster. Now, was that a reaction to the Hutchins injury? I don't know. But they did add an edge who was a mini-camp invite. Another note from minicamp. Namdi Obiasor was playing weakside linebacker, which is, you know, Christian Ellis's spot, maybe a little bit of a surprise.

Starting point is 00:27:55 if you were thinking the Patriots are going to try to slowly start, you know, developing somebody under Robert Spillane doesn't seem like it, not at first look, because Nomdi Obi-Zor was playing the weak side. He wasn't playing the mic. Now, of course, he can inevitably play the mic. But I go back to Robert Spelaine. There's lots of pressure on Spelaine. 30 years old, I still wonder if the Patriots will add depth to that spot,

Starting point is 00:28:27 or if they're going to be happy with KJ, Britt, and Chad Muma, and Obi Izor and whoever else they have out there at offball linebacker, whoever else they decide to add. Otis Reese, Samari Gaynor, Khalil Jacobs, the UDFA. But I think that is a position that will keep an eye on all the way through August to see if the Patriots add there. But not only were draft picks and UDFAs at this rookie minicam. There were tryouts as well.

Starting point is 00:28:56 And a couple of tryouts signed, as I said, Xavier Holmes signed to the roster from JMU. You also had safety Peter Manuma from Hawaii. He signed to the roster along with Holmes. Some other tryout invites that stood out to some. Evan Lazar wrote about the tryout said that Tennessee cornerback D. Williams, 511, 190. looked explosive going through drills, made some sudden changes of direction,

Starting point is 00:29:26 had decent speed, was smoothed in his back pedal, moved differently than other corners. Patriots also have a punter trying out. Indiana's Mitch McCarthy, a native Australian, 65230. Big dude.

Starting point is 00:29:45 And look, I absolutely want a competition at punter. Bryce Berenger, just wait. He's mad at, Maddening inconsistency. The maddening inconsistency to the punter position last year, get some competition there. And I think that's why the Patriots brought in Mitch McCarthy against 65230. That is a big punter. All right, that wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for

Starting point is 00:30:11 making us your first listen for being an every dare. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio. And don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel, hit that like button and subscribe. and if you never miss an episode, the Everydayer Club is built for you. Get Lockdown Patriots, ad-free, plus members-only Discord access and more. Head to Lockdown Patriots.com or check the link and the show notes to learn even more. Have a great day, and we will see you next time.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Twist: New England Patriots' Schedule Shifts From Feared to Manageable?

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