Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Ultimate AFC East Crossover: Overdue Bills? - 2/11/2020

Episode Date: February 11, 2020

It’s Ultimate Divisional Crossover Week across the Locked On Podcast Network. Joining host Mike D’Abate is Joe Marino of Locked On Bills and John Butchko of Locked On Jets to take a deep dive into the AFC East. Today, the trio discuss the Buffalo Bills, specifically their 2019 performance, their 2020 offseason approach and are they primed for a hostile takeover of the AFC East?  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hello to all of you Foxborough faithful, it's day two of the Ultimate Divisional Crossover for the AFC East. This is Locked On Patriots, your daily home for news notes and analysis infused with the occasional opinion on your six-time Super Bowl champions, the New England Patriots. I am your host, Mike DeBate. And again, folks, this week on the Locked On Podcast Network is Ultimate Divisional Crossover. All week long, I will be joined on the microphone by my colleagues Joe Marino of Locked On Bills

and John Buchko of Locked On Jets. We will be discussing anything and everything related to the AFC East, including our thoughts on the 2019 season and what 2020 has in store. Now yesterday, we kicked off Ultimate Divisional Crossover Week in style. Championship style, because we discussed your New England Patriots. John, Joe, and myself all gave our opinions on the Patriots' performance in 2019, whether or not they have the plan in place to make it 12 straight division titles. And of course, we discussed the hottest topic in the NFL,

the one that's on everybody's minds, where will Tom Brady play next year? Now, Joe, John, and myself all came to the realization that we believe Tom will end up playing his football right here in New England next year. But even if Tom returns, the gap in the AFC East is starting to narrow. The Buffalo Bills had a very good season in 2019, and they are looking to build on that. Do the Buffalo Bills have what it takes to take the AFC East crown from the Patriots for the first time in 12 seasons? Well, that's what we're going to be discussing today here on Locked On Patriots.

Can those Buffalo Bills that gave the Patriots all they could handle in two regular season games last year, including a nail-biter and a divisional clincher in Foxborough in late December, can they knock the champions off the divisional pedestal? Well, in just a moment, Joe Marino, our resident Buffalo Bills expert here on the Locked On Podcast Network and the host of Locked On Bills, will give you his impressions of the Bills' performance in 2019, what they might do in 2020, and he, along with John Buchko of Locked On Jets and myself, will discuss whether or not the Bills are poised for a takeover of the AFC East.

So sit tight, folks. It will be an informative show today. I sincerely hope that you enjoyed today's podcast. And without further ado, I give you Joe Marino of Locked On Bills to kick things off here on day two of Divisional Crossover Week. It's Joe Marino from Locked On Bills and welcome to day two of the ultimate division crossover series on the Lockdown Podcast Network we are obviously focused on the AFC East and yesterday was all about the New England Patriots tomorrow is about the Jets but today is about the Buffalo Bills and I'm joined by the same panel as yesterday, Mike DeBate from Lockdown Patriots. Welcome, Mike.

Joe, always a pleasure to join you on the microphone, talking a little Buffalo Bills football. Can't think of a better way to spend a Tuesday. And, of course, John Butchko from Lockdown Jets. John, welcome. Thanks, Joe. Great to be here. As you guys may have heard yesterday, Lockdown Dolphins is not represented

here on the panel because we are in the process of a host shift there. Travis Wingfield, the long-term outstanding host of Locked On Dolphins, has an exciting new opportunity that did not allow him to continue with that podcast. So we'll try to sprinkle in some Dolphins viewpoints here as the podcast rolls around. And we won't forget them this week. So we'll talk about them on Thursday. But today is about the Buffalo Bills. And as everyone knows, the Buffalo Bills are coming off their best season since 1999. They finished the season 10-6.

And it's the second time in the last three seasons under Coach McDermott that the team has went to the postseason. Of course, snapping a 17-year playoff drought. And it's very nice for the Bills Mafia to have the playoffs as a new normal part of their life. And hopefully that will continue. Offensively, Josh Allen is the main talking point, the quarterback they took in the top 10 a couple years ago. And he took a major step forward this past season.

The offensive line was much improved general manager Brandon Bean brought in a host of new offensive linemen really the only offensive starter that returned from from the 2018 squad was Josh Allen and left tackle Deion Dawkins everything else was rebuilt and new they found some new playmakers and John Brown and Cole Beasley third round pick Devin Singletary looks like he's the future of the position at running back. And, of course, Dawson Knox, the other third-round pick at tight end, looks like he's going to be a long-term fixture as one of the playmakers of the offense. Defensively, it was more of the same. A top-five unit, again, suffocating pass defense. Bend but don't break quite a bit.

But the Bills' defense really does a good job of making opponents earn everything and nothing comes easy. They limit the big plays. They play fundamentally sound. They're not an exotic scheme that challenges you like you might see from the Baltimore Ravens or even the New York Jets defense. They're a pretty straightforward defense, but they play sound football and it's tough to, uh, to continuously execute against them and, uh, and score a lot of points. So the bills do a good job of limiting points and make it tough on their opponents. They've really stacked up well against some really outstanding quarterbacks under coach McDermott and Leslie Frazier. Uh, the big takeaway from this past season has been the schedule. The bills finished 10 and six, uh,

but, uh, a lot of talk about, are they really a 10-6 caliber football team? The best win they had, the only team that they beat that went to the playoffs last year was the Tennessee Titans, and that, of course, was before Ryan Tannehill took over and really infused that offensive with some firepower and executed much more consistently than Marcus Mariota. And so the Bills' win against Tennessee came in Nashville, but it was with Marcus Mariota.

Of course, they were able to win at Dallas on Thanksgiving Day in the statement victory. And the win at Pittsburgh in Week 15, that actually clinched a playoff berth. I mean, the Bills were able to stack up so many wins this year that after Week 15, they punched their ticket to the postseason, which is a really unique viewpoint for the Bills and really understanding their history over the last couple of decades. Now, when it did come to facing top competition, the Bills had their chances, two against the New England Patriots. They faced the Baltimore Ravens and they weren't able to win any of those games.

Now, all three of those contests were one score games and the Bills had their chances in all three games to really, uh, make some noise and win those football games, but they squandered those opportunities and they were not able to get that resume win. Uh, the only game that they weren't competitive in, in 2019 was the loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Uh, the bills did qualify for the playoffs. And I think the loss to the Texans in the first round was revealing in a lot of ways, a microcosm of the season that we experienced. The Bills moved the ball offensively, but they didn't score enough points. Defense played really well, but missed tackles really cost them and put the Texans in positions to score points and take the game late in the contest. And for as good of a defense as the Bills were last season, and they have been, they don't tackle well.

And if that's something that they can clean up, that will be a major step in really making the defense not just one of the best in the game, but an absolute elite defense, but too many squandered opportunities to secure tackles. And as we all remember, the Deshaunatson play where uh he was dead to rights but he extended that play and it cost the bills a playoff win they're still searching for that first playoff win uh since 1995 so that leads us to the panel here john and mike and i want to start right there with the perception of this team a 10 and 6 football team playoffs two of the last three seasons the best season they've had since 1999. But there's a lot of detractors that don't believe the bills are as good as their record

indicates. I'd like to know where you guys stand and we'll start with, uh, with, uh, with John of, of locked on jets. And it's interesting because you guys saw the bills week one where, uh, they, they came away with a victory that was very close. Some of the clutch gene of Josh Allen came out. And then, of course, in week 17 where the Jets beat the Bills and the Bills were resting their starters.

So, John, I'll start with you. What's your perception on this football team? Well, yeah, I think you look at the year the team had. Obviously, the schedule is part of the story. But what I think in the NFL in general is there's not a big difference between teams that are 6-10 and teams that are 10-6. I mean, really, it comes down to a couple of plays with how many games come down to one score. And the Bills took advantage of what was in front of them. You could talk about the schedule.

And, yeah, the schedule was a factor. But my Jets had the exact exact close to the same schedule. Jets did not take advantage of it. So I think if you look if I look, I look at this from kind of a long term view. Are the Bills a team that could regress next year? Yes, but I like what their front office is doing. And, you know, you mentioned this was the second time in three years that Buffalo made the playoffs. Well, I look back to the 2017 when they made the playoffs.

And their front office did something you don't see a lot of front offices do in the NFL. Typically in the NFL, when you make the playoffs, you go all in the next year trying to take the next step. And more often than not, that's a bad move because you fall back to earth the next year. What the Bills did was they took a step back, at least as far as I saw it, in order to earth the next year. What the bills did was they took a step back at least as far as I, as I saw it in order to take two steps forward. So I think that there was some big picture thinking that I, that I like. So I like what the bills did last off season.

In fact, I wish the jets had followed a similar blueprint, the way they overhauled the offensive line. That's something that jets did not do. And it really came back to hurt them. So is this a, you know, is, is Buffalo a great football team right now? Probably not. You know, they were a team that did have a number of things go their way, including the schedule. Do I like the direction

they're heading big picture though? Yeah. I think that there's a lot, there's a lot of good that I think they're, I think they're really moving in the right direction. And I really liked the vision that their front office has put in place. You know, John, you, you mentioned the, the calculated measures that they took in year two of the regime under Brandon bean.

And, you know, the bills, eight, $70 million in dead cap space to really rip off that bandaid and get out of salary cap hell. And last year they were in the top five and cap space entering the off season with,

you know, double digit draft picks. Same thing this they have uh you know almost 80 million dollars 81 million dollars in cap space and as well as nine draft picks so the the bills have been able to create some flexibility uh by doing what you said there which you which i appreciate you mentioning is pretty unique i will say this also on the schedule we're going to find out some things about the bills and the rest of the afFC East next year when they go and travel to – they have to face both the West, right, the AFC West, the NFC West. The Bills will face all of the Super Bowl teams from the last two seasons,

obviously the Patriots and Rams, but also the Chiefs and the 49ers, all on the schedule next year. So it's going to be much tougher. We're going to find out what this team is made of. But Mike, as you consider the 2019 Buffalo Bills and the trajectory that they're on, do you feel like they were paper tigers, if you will, or were they legitimate in their 10-win season? No, they were legitimate by all stretch and any interpretation of that.

Let me tell you, in New England, the Buffalo Bills gave the Patriots all they could handle in both games that they played them this year, including the division clincher. In their two meetings, you know, I really, in the first meeting particularly, Joe, the Bills found a great deal of success running the football. And I know, and John, I want to echo a lot of the points that you said about building this team in the offseason, because a lot of what I bring to the table in terms of this discussion is watching what they did on the field and how those moves that they made were able to bring them the success that they had this year. And I think that success has been well deserved. Again,

they ran the football very effectively against the New England Patriots. They were one of the first teams to be able to do that all season. Frank Gore rushed for 109 yards. On the defensive side of the ball. They really made Brady uncomfortable. For the first time that year. Buffalo limited him to 9 of 22. For 90 yards in the first half. When I went back and I watched some film of that game. In preparation for today's discussion.

And that was Brady's first. Lowest first half completion percentage. Since he went 7 of 19. In a 27 to 26 win over Cleveland back in 2013. In total, Brady only went 18 of 39. He threw 150 yards in an interception. Now, I don't want to hear about him falling off a cliff. Only idiots say that.

The reason why Brady struggled in that game was because of a very good Buffalo Bills defense. So right off the bat, this team impressed me early on this season. This was not going to be the same old Bills team that the Patriots have really had their way with for the last few years. It's almost been a foregone conclusion that these games would be wins for the New England Patriots. That did not happen this year at all. In the division clincher, Joe, it was a little bit different.

The Pats fared better because I think they exploited some of the weak spots that the Buffalo Bills had. And don't forget, a lot of that is because you give Bill Belichick a second look at teams, he's going to take advantage of it and he's going to do what he does. And that's exactly what he did. The Patriots went back to running the ball a little bit, having Tom Brady slice away at the defense in small yardage chunks the Buffalo Bills defense was one of the better defenses in the league this year I'd argue that they were top three all season long at times I even believe they might have been in that number one spot with how they played in the front seven and in the secondary but again you know you give the Patriots an

opportunity to exploit that and that's what they did that's one of the big reasons why that the Pats were able to come out on top in December. But ultimately, when you look at what the Bills can bring to the table, they were able to force the Patriots into difficult situations. And that, I think, is something that they did all season long with a lot of their opponents. They did run into some difficulty with teams that had a great deal of success this year. That happens. The New England Patriots did as well. You take a look at how they fared against some of the better teams in the league, and

you're looking at losses on their side as well. So I truly believe when you look at the Buffalo Bills, they had every opportunity to win both games. Their secondary is a true force. Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, these guys, Tredavious White, this is a tremendous secondary that really has the ability to take even a further step next year. I like what I saw from Josh Allen. I like some of the poise that he showed at the end of the year. Granted, in the playoffs, there were some hiccups, but I think moving forward, you get Josh maybe a little bit of help

on the offensive side of the ball, and I'm sure we'll get into that in a minute. This team is poised to take another step. So ultimately the Bills earned their playoff spot. They earned their record. In my opinion, I think that record might have been a little bit better with an added piece here and there, particularly on offense. I think that's where they will look to improve this offseason right off the bat. Yeah, entering year four under Sean McDermott, year three under Brian Dable at coordinator on the offensive side of the football,

and, of course, year four with Leslie Frazier. The continuity has definitely helped this Buffalo team get to where it was last season. If you've been a listener to this podcast, I'm sure you've heard all the great advertising working with the Locked On Podcast Network to reach sports fans. But you may not know that Locked On Bills, Jets, and Patriots is a great way for your local business to reach passionate Bills, Jets, and Patriots fans just like you.

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or visit LockedOnonpodcast.com slash advertising and let us know who you are. We'll get our team to help your team achieve Locked On advertising success. Once again, text the word advertising to 33777 or visit lockedonpodcast.com slash advertising. We look forward to hearing from you. All right, so we've pretty well established that defensively, this is a really

good football team, but kind of the question marks turned back to the offense. And so I want to get your takes here on your general perception of the bills offense. Where are you at with Josh Allen? What are your thoughts about the job Brian Dable has done? Because he has his share of fans and haters. And what are your thoughts on this new look group of skill players that the Bills had last year and the challenges that they present to your teams as opponents? John, we let you go first last time. Mike, I'll give you the floor first this time. Well, in terms of what the Buffalo Bills bring to the table

in the offensive skill positions, you look at their wide receiver core, and John Brown and Cole Beasley I thought had excellent seasons for this team. I really like the synergy that both were able to develop with Josh Allen, especially in the games that I saw them play against the Patriots, which naturally I'm going to bring things back to that because I covered both games. I had an intricate knowledge of the way these two teams played one another. And really, I think they matched up extremely well.

I like that type of build. However, for the offseason, if I'm the Buffalo Bills, one thing that I'm going to be looking for is to give them a true outside threat, someone that can be that number one option for Josh Allen. And I think there are names out there that are able to do that. John Brown has the capability of being a number one receiver. I'm certainly not downplaying him in any way, shape, or form. But I think in terms of having another weapon at Josh Allen's disposal, it's only going to help this team gain confidence.

You know, the last time that they had a wide receiver top prospect that they drafted, correct me if I'm wrong, Joe, I believe it was 2014 with Sammy Watkins. And he wasn't someone that lasted a long time with Sean McDermott and with being, he was shipped out pretty quickly. So I think this is actually going to be the year where they may dip back into the draft for a playmaker and the 2020 NFL draft class of wide receivers. This has been a pretty good one in terms of what people are saying about it as a whole. Now, obviously, Jerry Judy is many of folks. Number one guy in the 2020 draft board. I don't quite think he's going to be there at 22 when the bills are able to pick. So they would have to move up if they wanted to, uh, to, to get

him, uh, LaVisca Chanel is someone that I think they may keep an eye on. CeeDee Lamb might be. A guy that I targeted earlier on on Locked On Patriots as a possible Patriots target is Tee Higgins. I think he's a very nice fit in the way the Buffalo Bills are playing this year and what they can do. Justin Jefferson, Henry Ruggs are some of the guys on that offense that I might look at.

So to me, I think there's some case to be made that they'll go after another offensive weapon when it comes to the wide receiver core. Another thing that I think that the Buffalo Bills should be looking at is making maybe additions or solidifying the offensive line. And I think one of their offensive priorities this offseason should be to re-sign Quentin Spain. I know a lot of people are looking at him and saying, well, he had a pretty average year, but I think continuity on this offensive line, especially with a mobile quarterback like Josh Allen,

is going to be so key for them to be able to establish that level of familiarity that a quarterback has to have with his offensive skill position players. The offensive line is a big part of that. I've watched that for the last few years in New England. One of the big reasons why that Tom Brady has had success is the continuity and the ability to count on his offensive line to make plays and make stops when they need to. He didn't have that this year,

and a lot of the struggles that Brady had was because of that. If I'm the bills, I'm looking to shore up as many, um, offensive, uh, you know, weapons as possible. And I think Spain is a guy that they would want to, uh, definitely bring back in obviously Dawkins being another one. So, you know, these are players that I think that, uh, you know, Buffalo's going to need to target and look at, but ultimately I think they make an upgrade at the skill position player with the wide receiver and then focus a lot on the offensive line. Mike, I didn't hear you say much about Josh Allen. And I want to I want to circle back to him because he's such a hot topic here with him entering, you know, the third season of his career. And obviously everybody wanting to buy in that he's the guy.

And I'm not sure that the two New England games are the best examples of Josh being at his, his peak performance, but you know, just kind of your general thoughts on him entering year three, what do you want to see from him? And do you think that the bills really could have a chance that he's the answer that we're going to hand a big long-term extension to in a couple of years. I believe he will be from what I've seen from Josh. I absolutely am convinced that he can be a long-term solution for quarterback for this team and be a very good quarterback for this team and lead them to a lot of success in the playoffs and possibly even to a Superbowl. I really think that this kid has the ability. Now, obviously, they're going to need to be some improvements in decision making. You saw that hurt him a couple of times this year, but you did see the ability to read defenses and make plays. I go back to the division clincher against the Patriots. You know, I ran for a first down on fourth and one from the Patriots 30 with about three minutes left. That gave them a first and goal. That gave them an opportunity to be able to seize that game. That's a heads-up play from a young quarterback,

especially in an hostile environment, coming into a game that not a lot of people gave them a lot of a chance to win because it was so late in the season. It's in Foxborough. Buffalo had had some big trouble winning those types of games in that environment. Josh gave them a great shot, made some throws when he needed to, to close out the half. He made the touchdown throw to John Brown.

So those are the types of things that I remember. And those are the types of memories I'll take with me from 2019 regarding Josh Allen. Those types of plays make me know that the capability is there. It just has to be a little bit more worked in. I think a lot of what you're going to see him work on in training camp and mini camp, things of that nature is decision-making timing, synergy with his weapons. I think you're going to need to see that.

I think you're going to see him work a lot with a lot of the skill position players, the wide receivers, the tight ends. Looked like he was developing a pretty good relationship, a battery relationship there with Dawson Knox down the line I think they're going to try to continue that in 2020. John we and we you and I had a really good conversation way back before the season leading into week one about Sam Darnold and Josh Allen and so it's been a while since we've been able to connect on this, but we live this, right? We live that 2018 quarterback class, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen and Sam Darnold. And so I really I'm really anxious to kind of get your take on Josh and this Bill's offense and maybe kind of how you you think these this 2018 class of quarterback stacks up after two seasons. I think I would repeat a lot of the things Mike said.

I think that they might look to the draft to add another weapon for Allen. But I think overall, my answer for Josh Allen would be somewhat similar to my answer on Sam Darnold. I think the jury is still out right now. I've seen some very good games. That game we're talking about, I think it was week 16 in Foxborough on a Saturday afternoon. Allen really very good games that game we're talking about i think it was week 16 in foxborough on a saturday afternoon alan really impressed me in that game i thought he was one of the biggest reasons the bills had a shot to win he made a number of big time throws in that game but as with you know a lot of young quarterbacks there's a question of consistency and

alan as much as anybody is the kind of guy when he's good, he's very good, but when he's bad, he's very bad. So I'm not sure what to think of him at this point, because I think that the Buffalo bills, from what I could sense, they were, they were not really a quarterback dependent team. They were not a team. Every team needs their quarterback to be efficient, but the bills were not a team that put everything on their quarterback

shoulders. And that's a good thing. You don't want to do that to a second-year quarterback. But I think that there's a difference between being good enough that your team's not losing because of you and being good enough that your team is winning because of you. I think right now, Allen's a guy, he's good good enough that the bills aren't losing because they've surrounded him with you know good defense and some quality supporting parts but i think the question is can he take that next step and be kind of the driving force behind the team winning and the other thing i'd say about buffalo and offense in general is i think when we talk about the offseason sometimes we forget that the biggest improvements are frequently internal, guys who are already on your team.

And in many instances, the biggest improvement a player makes is between year one and year two. And I think that there are some really intriguing players on this Buffalo offense. In fact, the Bills drafted a lot of guys I wanted the Jets to draft last year. I loved Dawson Knox. I was really upset when Buffalo drafted him.

Another guy on the offensive line, Cody Ford. I mean, I think these are two real pieces that could blossom in year two. And if they do, you know, as much as bringing somebody from outside to bolster your lineup helps your team, sometimes just improvement for guys from their rookie year to year two can have

just as much of an impact. So let's, I know you guys have kind of given some thoughts here when you talked about the Bills offense from the opponent's perspective, but you know, I do want to get into a little bit of off-season discussion here with, like I mentioned already, the Bills have $80 million in cap space, nine picks in the coming draft, some free agents to consider, but I mean, the really, the only starter is Quentin Spain, some very meaningful depth pieces. But you know, really, I mean, the bills are primed to return most of their starting lineup. And, um, how do you think Brandon Bean should attack this off season?

We've seen the bills kind of like blitz certain position groups. Last year was wide receiver and offensive line year one under McDermott was the secondary. You know, do you kind of see them kind of attacking a spot? Just your thoughts on what this team can do, what can help them score more touchdowns and what can keep this defense playing? Well, we'll start with Mike. Well, I think in a lot of ways, I tipped my hand early on about saying that Quentin Spain is someone that I think they should bring back. And again, that's definitely not the only move that they'll make. That's definitely not the most important move that they'll make.

But I think that goes a long way toward the continuity that they're going to need on offense. Look, from a wide receiver perspective, you look at the names that are out there right now, and these are depth pieces. These are probably not guys that are going to be a number one option, a true number one option. Emmanuel Sanders is set to be a free agent this year. He'll gain some, you know, some notoriety out there. I've seen him attached to Buffalo in terms of the names that are available. Obviously, A.J. Green is someone that could be potentially available for them as well. So I think these are names that you may see them take a look at and maybe kick the tires on in terms of bringing in a veteran depth piece.

I think it's going to be interesting to see if Buffalo chooses to upgrade a little bit and spend some of their capital on the running game. Because don't forget, you've got Devin Singletary, who is a dynamic runner, had a great season this year. Frank Gore is nearing the end of his career. He's been a little bit cryptic about whether or not he's going to continue. Buffalo Bills had a very good opportunity to have both of those runners this year. But if Gore is not going to come back and if he chooses to retire, which is not a given,

but it might happen, then they're going to want to continue that running game, especially as Josh Allen continues to develop. Having that two-headed running monster is something that is huge. I think that definitely helped them a lot this year, and I think it's something that they're going to need to rely on. So in terms of scoring touchdowns, I think that they probably might be wise to look into investing into the running back position,

bring definitely in another wide receiver if they don't go the draft route, and I believe they will. But if they don't go the draft route. And I believe they will. But if they don't, I think that's an option as well. But also maybe looking at some of the guys on defense, some of these young stars that they have and possibly even looking for a contract extension, something that might be able to help them down the line. Tredavious White definitely put himself in a very good position for a big payday. I think Buffalo ultimately finds a way to keep him in a Bills uniform for a long time.

He is one of those cornerstones that you can build that defense around for quite some time. So on the other positions in defense that they have available, I know Matt Milano is up this year. He's a guy that showed a lot of ability to make plays down the stretch at the linebacker position, a lot of versatility for him. He's a guy that I would look to bring back. These are the types of things where if I'm the Buffalo Bills, I don't look to revamp this roster completely. I look to add to it. We spoke yesterday when we spoke about the New England Patriots about not rebuilding, but retooling. And I think that's what Buffalo is going to be all about this offseason. And I think they have a lot of good pieces in place.

A few tweaks here and there to this roster, and I think they're in business. Mike, you mentioned a lot of the conventional wisdom behind what the Bills could do this offseason, but I really like your thought there that you brought up about some of the players that the Bills are ready to extend. Guys that don't necessarily expire until after the coming season, but you can get ahead of extensions for a Jordan Poyer for a Trey white for a

Matt Milano left tackle Dion Dawkins, who was a draft pick a three-year starter now in a team captain last year, they have $80 million, but that can disappear really quick. When you start to think about some of the quality talent they've they've drafted that is now ready for the contract extension i know john uh i'm not sure if there's much left for you to cover in terms of the off season but if you had any uh other ideas to bring to the table we'd love to hear them well yeah i would repeat a lot of what mike said and i i'd add this, is that I think the Bills are in good shape from the standpoint that

I don't see a ton of absolutely dire needs that they absolutely have to overspend to bring somebody in. Now, I look at this year's free agent class. I'm not sure there are a ton of game-breaking players. And I think that in general, in free agency, the teams that set the market, the teams that, you know, spend the big money on the top flight free agents, they live to regret those deals more often than not. And look, I, I've covered the jet.

I have plenty of experience with that. Uh, so I think the bills are in a kind of a good spot when they can, they can kind of let, let the market come to them. And if, you know, there's a player who the market doesn't develop for, who turns into a bargain, they can attack that guy with that cap space. But I'm not sure I'd necessarily be the most aggressive team out there because I don't think that they have a ton of absolutely dire needs. I think they can get by most of their positions. So I'd probably – I'd be more conservative if I were Buffalo and I'd try and maximize the draft picks

because I think this year that's where you're going to find like the game-changing talent. Yeah, and the Bills, I mean, their batting average with draft picks right now is really high. And so I don't know if that's going to regress a bit. I think their conventional wisdom would say that it would, but they're hitting on draft picks, not just first-round picks, but they're hitting on draft picks,

not just first round picks, but day three picks that are filling meaningful roles on the football team. And so that does lead to the need for extensions and some selective spending when it comes to free agency. Well, at the end of yesterday's podcast, Mike put us on the spot, making us talk about whether or not Tom Brady is going to play for a different team in 2020. And I want to put you guys on the spot here to end this podcast today and get your take on your belief that Buffalo is primed to overtake the Patriots as a division champions in 2020. And then also, where do you think they stack up in terms of the Jets and the Dolphins? Are they that much further along?

I know record-wise they had a superior record this past year, but there were some circumstances with both of those teams. Do you feel like we shouldn't be so quick to dismiss the Jets and Dolphins as teams in addition to Buffalo in a more wide-open race than ever next year? John, I'll let you go first on this one. I think that this division is wide open right now because we don't know what's going to happen with brady and the jets do have some resources the dolphins have a ton of dolphins are probably the worst team in the division right now but they have a ton of assets they could use to improve their roster with so i mean i think this thing's wide open as i mentioned a little bit earlier i think the difference between 10 and 6 and 6 and 10 is not

really that great in this league and you know i go back to week one the jets are up 16 to nothing late in the third quarter of their game against buffalo and the bills come back and win the game and i wonder whether those whether the two team seasons may have both gone in different directions if the jets had held on to it now we'll never know um so you know like anything kind of, you know, like any little thing can kind of drastically alter a team season. I think I think the bills are I wouldn't be shocked to see Buffalo overtake New England next year. But I'd love I'd love to see. No offense, Mike. I'd love to see New England not win the division. I don't care who it is, any of the other three teams. I'd love for it to be the Jets. But I'd be just as happy, not just as happy, i'd be almost as happy to see buffalo when i think objectively

the patriots are the champ until they get knocked off and belichick and his crew have earned our respect but i think that this is as close in the last two decades as i've seen to another team knocking new england off it's off the pedestal in the East. So I wouldn't be shocked to see Buffalo. My money would probably be on New England, but I'd love to see it not be the Patriots. Mike, are you going to do it? Are you going to come on this podcast today

and predict the Bills dethrone the Patriots? I would predict that you don't, but the floor is yours. Well, let's just say this, John. I don't think you're in unique company when you say that you hope that another team wins the AFC East. I would say 31 other fan bases join you in that. However, there have been 11 straight division titles that have resided in Foxborough. And I will stop short of saying that I believe that the Bills are going to absolutely overtake the New England Patriots. But I will say this is the best shot that they have had in a long time.

And it would not shock me to see them overtake the New England Patriots this year for the division title. And there are a lot of reasons for that. First of all, the wild card and the white elephant in the room is Tom Brady's status. We don't know what he's going to do if he ends up back in Foxborough. It's a foregone conclusion that his return to the New England Patriots would signify that the Patriots are going all in. I don't think Tom is just coming here to ride off into the sunset and put his feet up. He can do that probably in a lot better locations with probably some better weather as well. So I would think that that would be a factor in his decision making. If he's coming back to New England, it's to win, which means that he's going to surround with probably some better weather as well. So I would think that that would be a factor in his decision-making.

If he's coming back to New England, it's to win, which means that he's going to surround, the team is going to surround him with weapons that are going to make that job a little bit easier. However, even if Brady is back this year, I think Buffalo gives them all that they can handle because Buffalo proved that they can hang with this team last year. This was definitely a team that even early in the season and late in the season gave

the Patriots everything that they could handle. And I know I sound like a broken record when I say that, but it really is the truth, especially in the division clincher. And even though the Patriots were able to win that and capture the division, a few things stood out to me in that matchup, Joe. First of all, Julian Edelman, Rex Burkhead were dangerous. They were dangerous because they were able to get open in the field. Edelman saw a lot of single coverage in that game. He remarked after the game that he was kind of licking his chops at the

single coverage that he saw. That was one of the big reasons why the Patriots were able to move the ball so well. Credit Josh McDaniels. He saw the Bills pass rush over committing. He deferred to Burkhead and the screen game, and that opened up a lot of things for the Patriots offensively. I think the Bills saw that as well. I think Leslie Frazier, I think Sean McDermott noticed that as well. And I think they discovered ways that they'll be able to defend the New England Patriots moving forward next year. So that's something that I would look for. They have a pretty good track record when it comes to stopping the run, even though the Bills had difficulty in that game.

Sonny Michel actually ran for 96 yards in that game, was one of his best offensive outputs all season. I think they stack that, maybe invest a little bit into the front seven and the linebacker position to allow them a better opportunity to stop the run next year. So those are the types of things that I see when the Bills play the Patriots in 2020. I look for them to make those adjustments. In terms of the Patriots' ability to make the adjustments back, a lot of that is going to determine on the skill position players that they bring back and if Tom Brady's under center. So even with Brady and maybe a little bit of an improvement on offense,

I still think the Bills match up very well against this team. That's why I think that this is one of their best opportunities to be able to compete for a division title. They're going to be a little bit more seasoned. They're going to be a little bit more battle-tested. That loss to end the season definitely left a bad taste in Josh Allen's mouth. You heard him make those remarks after the game, even throughout the offseason.

Those types of losses light a fire under teams. We'll see what the Buffalo Bills are made out of this season, but I think they really showed a lot of heart last year, and I think they're going to continue to show that in 2020. So I still think this is the Patriots' division to lose, but the Bills are primed right up there. And John, to lead into what we'll talk about with you tomorrow, I don't think the Jets are as far off as people believe as well.

The Dolphins may be bringing up the rear a little bit, but their wild card in all of this is the cap space and the draft capital that they have. So the AFC East, definitely not the AFC least anymore, folks. There are four teams right now that are primed and hungry, and I think we're in for a really great battle in 2020. Last question I have from you guys, and I did not warn you that I was going to ask you this.

So I'm going to put you on the spot. I will only accept one word answers and your answer will be either fact or fiction. All right. One word only no analysis provided. Here's the question or the statement factor fiction. The AFC East will produce two playoff teams again in 2020. John factor fiction, fiction, in 2020. John, fact or fiction?

Fiction. Mike, fact or fiction? Fact. Woo! All right, well, we will flesh this out the rest of the week as we talk about the Dolphins, the Jets, and then we have a really fun show concept line for you on Friday. So don't miss it.

Make sure that you hit that subscribe button on whatever podcast medium you prefer on whether it's Lockdown Bills, Patriots, Jets, or Dolphins. And look forward to catching up with the panel again tomorrow where we focus our attention on the New York Jets. Thanks so much for listening.