Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - UPDATE: Patriots Set to Land A.J. Brown as Blockbuster Trade Rumors Heat Up

Starting point is 00:00:00 The latest reporting is out and it feels inevitable that A.J. Brown is headed to New England to be Drake Mays Alpha. This is Locked-on Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots. Your daily New England Patriots podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host, Nick Cattels. On today's show, the Pat's got some very promising news from their first day of the voluntary off-season program. In our second segment, a Pat's wide receiver is reportedly available. But first, A.J. Brown might want to start looking at some New England real estate.

Starting point is 00:00:45 At this point, I would be absolutely stunned if A.J. Brown is not a Patriot on June 2nd. After all the reporting that we got on Monday, we'll start with the best in the business, Adam Schaefter from ESPN, who wrote, no matter what happens at this week's draft, and A.J. Brown trade to the Patriots is still on the table and still tracking to happen on or after June 1st per league sources. All the elements remain in place to make it happen. And Brown to the Patriots is still the likely outcome, just not during this week's draft per sources. Put the trade on hold just for now, but things will soon and quickly warm back up. The Eagles remain open to trading Brown. The Patriots remain highly interested in acquiring the star. receiver. In conversations are expected to resume shortly on or before June 1st, probably

Starting point is 00:01:40 culminating in a deal per league sources. The Patriots remain at the forefront of trade talks for Brown. Another team could always emerge and there's a lot of time between now and June 1st. But as of now, multiple sources say they believe Brown and the Patriots are likely to become a tandem. Schaefter also said on ESPN television on Monday. that Brown would like to be traded from Philly. So we continue to get closer and closer to an A.J. Brown request, demand to get out of Philly. But that's not it. That's not the only reporting.

Starting point is 00:02:16 There's more from Mike Garifolo of the NFL Network who posted the Eagles begin their offseason workout program today. And A.J. Brown is not expected to attend as he awaits clarity on his future sources tell the insiders. There's nothing mandatory before June 1st when trade talks with the Patriots and perhaps others likely resume. So Adam Schaefter says Patriots, A.J. Brown, that marriage is likely. Mike Garifolo lets us know that A.J. Brown ends up not going to the offseason workout program. It is a voluntary program, but a lot of times when you see dudes sit out the voluntary program, it means they're angling their out of town. Now, not every single time, but I do find it noteworthy that the workout program started on Monday and A.J. Brown not there. And as Mike Garifolo reported, Brown is not expected

Starting point is 00:03:15 to attend because he's awaiting clarity on his future. Well, what's the clarity? Him getting out of there. When you marry the idea of Adam Schaefter saying, A.J. Brown would like to be traded and him not going to the off-season workout program as he awaits clarity on his future. To me, that means he's just waiting to be dealt. And we're all waiting until June 1st because of the cap ramifications that we have discussed over and over and over again. In that Adam Schaeft report, that is the strongest worded reporting about this situation that I have seen.

Starting point is 00:03:54 And that's why it is absolutely worth talking about. still tracking to happen on or after June 1st. All elements remain in place to make it happen. Patriots remain highly interested, probably culminating in a deal. Patriots remain at the forefront of trade talks. Multiple sources say they believe Brown and the Patriots are likely to become a tandem. Now again, none of this is a guarantee,

Starting point is 00:04:25 but the way that Adam Schaefter is reporting this makes me feel, like the likelihood of A.J. Brown becoming a patriot is like 95%. Not 100%. You always leave the door open for something to happen. But right now it feels like a 95% certainty that Brown will be in New England for the 2026 season. I mean, just think of it this way. The Patriots or the Eagles and or the Eagles could stop this train at any time. All of this reporting, everybody, talking about it. Everything that's been written, everything that's been said, and don't get it twisted as we said back a couple of weeks ago at the league meetings when Howie Roseman

Starting point is 00:05:10 sits up there and says, A.J. Brown is an eagle. He's not telling us that A.J. Brown is going to be an eagle. He's telling us that A.J. Brown right now is an eagle, which is the truth. It will continue to be the truth until he is dealt probably on June 1st or 2nd. The Eagles, the Patriots, they could easily end this talk. The Patriots could easily get a hold of Adam Schaefter or any of the dozen plus writers that have talked about this and written about this could easily pull one of them aside and say, this ain't happening. Yeah, we were having talks, but we're done. The Eagles could easily, whether it's publicly or privately, end this conversation by saying

Starting point is 00:05:51 we are committed to A.J. Brown will be a Philadelphia Eagle in 26. neither side is stopping the talk. They're allowing this to happen. And do you think the Philadelphia Eagles are going to invite a disaster with A.J. Brown, allowing his name to be floated around the entire off season and trade talks to then go to AJ Brown and say, you know what, AJ, we want you to be an eagle. How tough of a sell job is that at this point? I mean, it just feels like Brown is very, is very,

Starting point is 00:06:30 likely gone. Not if it's when and it feels more likely after Monday's reporting that it's going to be the New England Patriots. Now the next conversation is what will this cost? We have the latest thoughts from Philly about that. Ruben Frank from NBC Sports Philly wrote on Monday. I still think Howie Roseman wants to trade Brown, but I'm starting to get the sense he won't be getting a first round pick in return. First round picks are the lifeblood of any franchise's future and when you make an honest assessment of where Brown is right now as a football player, are you going to give up a first round pick? I think maybe not.

Starting point is 00:07:10 So the question becomes how we're willing to unload Brown and move on for maybe second and fourth round picks in 2027? Probably. Now that's Ruben Frank's guess. Schefter's guest on the Pat McAfee show on Monday was that it will likely cost any team a future first round pick to trade for A.J. Brown. And I go back to a couple weeks ago, I said, I am not willing to trade a 2027 first round pick straight up for A.J. Brown.

Starting point is 00:07:44 I am not willing to just blindly hand Philadelphia that pick. And I would beg the question, who are you battling with for A.J. Brown right now? Who is battling for the services of Brown other than the Patriots? We heard the Rams. Ram said, you know, we're out, we're done. Wouldn't be surprised at the Rams pick a wide receiver at 13 on Thursday night. Maybe the Chargers. Everybody else is pretty much out from what's been reported.

Starting point is 00:08:13 It feels like the only team that could jump back in, maybe the Baltimore Ravens, maybe. But it just feels like no other team is really dying to make this trade. So if that is the truth, if the Patriots are not battling, anybody else for the services of Brown, then why would you overpay? Why would you bend over backwards? You're not going to sit there and punch yourself in the face. Brown is 29 years old. He's got the knee condition. He is going to want a new contract, I think, as we've talked about. I think it's an absolute probability that if when you trade for Brown, you're going to to have to give him an extension.

Starting point is 00:09:07 And you got some baggage going on, as we all know, with the social media stuff, the sideline stuff. So who are you fighting to make this trade? You're not fighting anybody. Now, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that we could see the Patriots trade a future first round pick conditionally. And what I mean by that is they tell the Eagles, look, yeah, we want A.J. Brown. You want to make a move.

Starting point is 00:09:35 let's make this happen. It makes sense for each side here, but we're not willing to give you blindly a first round pick in 2027. But if A.J. Brown has 1,500 receiving yards. If A.J. Brown has 10 or more touchdowns. If A.J. Brown has more than 90 catch of whatever the conditions are, you put the conditions on that pick. And if A.J. Brown does not meet those conditions, that pick becomes a second round pick. Now, is that a possibility? I do think that's a possibility. But I don't think the Patriots are just going to hand over the 2027 first round pick without anything attached. I could be wrong. I think that would be an overpay. We'll see what happens. Speaking of trades and wide receivers, a Pat's wide receiver is

Starting point is 00:10:27 reportedly on the trade block and we have a good idea what the return would look like. That's next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown. Locked on Podcast Network. Now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. You know that feeling around dinner time when you're starving, maybe it a little hangary, and somehow there's nothing in your fridge? That's why Home Chef is the easiest way to have real balanced meals ready to go without the stress. Home Chef makes cooking simple.

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Starting point is 00:13:48 All right. Three weeks ago, we talked about trading K. Shan Booty. And I had said three weeks ago that I felt like trading Kishan Booty would make some sense, given certain scenarios. You can go check out that podcast. Again, three weeks ago, it's in the archives. We break down the reasoning. why that could, should, would happen.

Starting point is 00:14:10 But Jordan Schultz on Monday gave us the latest. Jordan Schultz posted a name that has come up in trade talks is Booty, who was entering the final year of his contract, according to multiple league sources with Romeo Dobbs coming in and the eventual A.J. Brown trade. It's pretty hilarious how Jordan Schultz frames this, right? With Romeo Dobbs coming in and the eventual A.J. Brown trade. as if it's a fate of complete.

Starting point is 00:14:38 Teams believe Booty could be available for the right price. Again, discussed this three weeks ago. You can check it out. But what I want to dive into on this episode is what would the right price be for Kishon Booty? Because I feel like a recent trade that the Philadelphia Eagles made could help set the framework for a Kishon Booty deal. Now, Don Tavian Wix was traded from Green Bay to Philly, and in return, the Packers received a fifth round pick in this year's draft and a sixth round pick in next year's draft. And I feel like that is pretty much the value of Booty because let's compare Don Tavian Wix to Booty. Wix turns 25 years old in June.

Starting point is 00:15:30 Booty turns 24 years old in May. Both guys entering contract years. Now, Wix ended up getting a one-year extension at about $12.5 million from Philly, but he was in the same contractual situation as Booty is right now before that trade was done between those two teams. So both guys entering contract years. If you look at what Booty did last season versus Wix, Booty was better. Wix had 30 catches, booty had 33 catches, but the true difference was yards and touchdowns. Booty had more than 200 more yards than Wix, 5.51 to 332, and he had three times the touchdowns with six versus two.

Starting point is 00:16:16 So you could argue that booty is worth more than Wix. You could argue that booty might fetch your fourth. And I wouldn't have a problem with that. Now, I think other teams will fight back. I think other teams will look at this and say, well, Don Tavian Wix had less opportunity than Booty. And if Wix was in the situation that Booty was in in New England, he would likely have the same stats, if not better stats than Booty. And there would be that give and take. But I would not be surprised if you're looking at like a fifth and a sixth, fifth in this year's draft, sixth and next year's draft, or maybe a fourth at best.

Starting point is 00:16:57 maybe you got to trade booty in a sixth. Maybe you could combine Kishon Booty and one of those four sixth round picks that you have for a fourth round pick in this year's draft, which would be great because you'd end up with three fourth round picks if you could make that type of deal. But I think that's about the value we're looking at. Look at Don Tabean Wicks, that trade that was made, and then go from there.

Starting point is 00:17:23 Somewhat similar, if not the same value. I don't think the Patriots are getting a third round pick for Booty. I don't think that's happened. I don't think the Patriots would take a sixth round pick. I think it's somewhere in that fourth, fifth or fifth in a sixth kind of range. Now, the Patriots could easily use Booty to help replace the capital that you lose in dealing for A.J. Brown. If we tie together our first segment today with this segment, it makes sense, doesn't it? You feel really good about landing A.J. Brown feels almost inevitable the way that these writers are talking about it.

Starting point is 00:18:08 Jordan Schultz framing it as the eventual A.J. Brown trade. If you know you're going to get A.J. Brown. If you feel like it's a 95% certainty, then trading Cajon Booty makes sense, because you recover some of the capital that you're eventually going to give up for A.J. Brown. Now, of course, it depends if you trade Booty for a 2027 pick, if you're going to trade 2027 picks for Brown. But you get the point. Like if you trade Booty, you get an extra pick in this year's draft. Not next year's, but you get a pick in this year's draft depending on what the trade is. If it is the Dantavian Wicks trade, then you do get a pick in this year and next year's draft.

Starting point is 00:18:51 But you get this idea, right? A pick comes in or two picks come in. Eventually you have to send a pick or two picks out for Brown. You know, when the years fall, we'll see. But you get that extra pick or two for Booty, which does make you feel like you help a little bit as far as the capital if you're looking at both 26 and 27. And, you know, this is also a major reason why I do not rule out the Patriots

Starting point is 00:19:20 drafting a wide receiver and trading for Brown. I don't think it's nuts. Kishon Booty, Mack Hollins, Pop Douglas, all in the final year of their deals. Now, the type of receiver would matter. Do I think the Patriots would spend a first round pick on an X receiver if they're going to go out and trade for A.J. Brown? I do not. The type matters. Do I think it's more likely that if the Patriots draft a receiver, which again, I don't think is out of the realm of possibility?

Starting point is 00:19:51 I don't think it's this crazy. outside the box idea, even if you bring Brown in. Do I think it's more likely that pick in this year's draft, that investment in a wide receiver this week, this weekend more likely would come from the second to sixth rounds? I do. Maybe even third through the sixth round. But I don't think you look at this and you say, oh, they're going to bring A.J.

Starting point is 00:20:13 Brown in. They're not going to draft a receiver. No, because the draft is not just about 2026. The draft is about two, three, four, five years from now. And as the wide receiver room is currently constituted, you're going to lose three receivers after 2026. You have to replenish that. So if you like a receiver in the middle rounds this year, then you look at it and say, we're going to lose one of those guys or all three of those guys, two of those guys.

Starting point is 00:20:41 Let's bring somebody else in. So by 2027, they are replacing that person and that productivity. And if you're going to trade booty, it makes it even easier. So I also think that while it's more likely the Patriots spend a second through sixth round pick on a receiver instead of a first, if you're going to trade for A.J. Brown, I don't think it's totally impossible that the Patriots pick a wide receiver in the first round and still trade for A.J. Brown. Again, I would say it's probably unlikely given how much that you're putting into that position. but if Casey Concepcion or Omar Cooper unexpectedly fall to 31, you can fit those guys on this roster.

Starting point is 00:21:25 They're not going to make a ton of money the first couple of years. By the time, you know, their money starts to amp up a little bit, you're moving on from A.J. Brown. So I don't think it's totally impossible that, you know, if the tackles are gone, the edges they like are gone, and you can't trade the pick and this is best player available type of scenario, I don't think it's nuts that one of, you know, one of those two guys, KCC or Omar Cooper Jr. could be the pick if they're there at 31.

Starting point is 00:21:54 Would have put a lot of money on it, but I don't think it's impossible. All right. Coming up, the Pats get promising news on the first day of the voluntary offseason program. And we have the latest on the edge trade market. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Matt Derry here from the Lockdown Lions podcast. You know, life insurance is one of those things. you don't really think about until you have a reason to. For me, it really hit home when my father

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Starting point is 00:23:19 Great news. Great news for the Patriots. Great news for Patriots fans. Christian Gonzalez showed up to the voluntary off season program. Now, some might say, well, Nick, yeah, he's contracted. He's got a contract for the next two years. And he does. He does have a contract for the next two years.

Starting point is 00:23:36 But no, this is a voluntary offseason program. And if Christian Gonzalez wanted to make a contract, Contract negotiation, really tough. If he wanted to make this negotiation a headache for the Patriots, he no-shows. We've seen that from players. Players that want to make a point, players that want to push their leverage on the team and say, we want a contract extension done sooner rather than later. We're seeing these big deals happen.

Starting point is 00:24:07 We're seeing Will Anderson get $50 million a year. We're seeing the Trent McDuffey contract out there in L.A. with the Rams after he was dealt from Kansas City, I want my money. And I'm going to push it. I'm going to push it until I get my money. But that's not what Gonzalez is doing. Gonzalez showing up to the voluntary off-season program,

Starting point is 00:24:30 I think is an olive branch. I think this is Gonzalez fitting in. I think this is Gonzalez, understanding that if he plays ball, eventually a deal is going to get done. And as of right now, there doesn't seem to be a massive amount of urgency to get this contract done, let's say before the draft or before camp in July. The fact that Gonzalez showed up to the voluntary program makes me feel like the Patriots

Starting point is 00:25:05 in Gonzalez, as of right now, of course, this could always change. But as of right now, you know, his appearance. at the offseason program, his presence there makes me feel like the team and the player are, if not on the same page, they're in a pretty good spot with their relationship right now. And let's not overlook the fact that Mike Vrable and Christian Gonzalez, Elliot Wolf, they've all kind of talked about Gonzalez wanting to be a leader. Vrable has discussed that Gonzalez wants to be a captain. This is the next step.

Starting point is 00:25:43 This is building trust with the staff, building trust with the front office, building trust with ownership, building trust with your teammates, showing up. Even though you could, you know, bicker and cause an issue about your contract, you're showing up to the voluntary off-season program. You want to lead by example. You want to be a captain. You show up to these voluntary programs. You put the work in.

Starting point is 00:26:07 You do everything that you could possibly do with every fiber of your being to prove that you are a leader. And that's this step here from Gonzalez. So you love to see it. All right, let's talk about Edge and let's talk about the trade market. Of course, we all know the Patriots need an edge. They probably need two. Many people have written, many people have said, including me,

Starting point is 00:26:31 that Edge is the number one need for the Patriots. Ian Rappaport reported on Monday that after the Giants dealing of Dexter Lawrence to the Cincinnati Bengals over the weekend, a deal of Kvon Tibido is less likely. Now he said he didn't say it's not going to happen. He's just reporting that after the Lawrence deal, it is less likely Tibido gets traded. And he was a guy that we kind of talked about in the past,

Starting point is 00:26:57 had an eye on, maybe a fit if the Patriots don't find their edge answer in the draft. Charles Robinson of Yahoo mentioned two other names, and they're both in Pittsburgh. Robinson wrote, Alex Highsmith's name, along with Nick Erbig, is definitely floating around front offices as the draft approaches, although it seems that any trade would be a one but not both scenario with High Smith being the likelier candidate to get moved. As one high-level personnel executive said, quote, I think they will trade one of them. And of course, he's talking about High Smith and Herbig.

Starting point is 00:27:37 So Steelers' edges sound like they could be available for the right price. Now, Erbig's interesting because he's a part-timer. His, you know, pass rush win rate numbers were really good this year. Pressure numbers were good. So when he was on the field, he played well. And of course, man, was he a headache for Will Campbell? I thought the Steelers game in the Herbig matchup was the toughest matchup,

Starting point is 00:28:05 aside from Miles Garrett, that Campbell had almost all year long until he had the injury, and then wasn't the same guy when he came back for the playoffs and, of course, the Super Bowl. But Herbig, I mean, you want to talk about somebody who can get to the quarterback, who could be productive. He is he is absolutely one of those guys. Now, what's interesting is not only has he been a part-time player for the Steelers, and that's not really a statement on Erbig, it's a statement on the Steelers' depth at that position. You've got obviously T.J. Watt, you've got Highsmith. So you've got some dudes there.

Starting point is 00:28:40 The interesting part of Erbig is that he's in the final year of his contract. He's making $3.8 million this year, which is fantastic for the Patriots. But it also means he wants a contract. And so if you traded for him, you're probably looking at paying, I don't know, 25 million a year for him, maybe even more with where the edge market is right now financially. So that's a question. You know, can you trade for somebody like him, pay him? him that type of money and trade for AJ Brown. Tough. And give Gonzalez his extension.

Starting point is 00:29:13 Now, Erbick's 24 years old, so he absolutely fits the timeline. The other name here, Alex Highsmith, he's 29 in August. The next two years, he's set to make 20 million and 21 million respectively. I don't think the Patriots would be interested. I mean, to go out and get another guy who's on the precipice of 30 making that type of money the next couple of years, I think you're looking younger. So Erbig at 24 makes more sense. Drafting a player or two at that position makes more sense. High Smith at 29 with that money,

Starting point is 00:29:46 I don't even think it's worth talking about. All right, that wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being an everydayer. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C Radio. And don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Hit that like button and subscribe. And if you never miss an episode, the Everyday Club is built for you. get locked on Patriots ad free plus members only discord access and more at the lockdown patriots.

Starting point is 00:30:10 com or check the link in the show notes to learn even more. Have a great day and we will see you next time.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - UPDATE: Patriots Set to Land A.J. Brown as Blockbuster Trade Rumors Heat Up

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