Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Urgency: Patriots Battle Desperate Ravens—Lamar Jackson & Drake Maye Clash

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Pats need to respond after last Sunday, and it's not going to be easy facing a talented team fighting for their playoff lives. It's a deep dive preview, and this is Locked-on Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcasts Network, your team every day. What's happening? host, Nick Cattles, born and raised in New England, been covering the past for the past 16 years, also the co-host of the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattles and a sports radio veteran. Welcome to Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. And don't forget following Ravens Patriots on

Starting point is 00:00:51 Sunday night, we will be going live on YouTube. So you want to follow us, make sure you are there. Sunday night following Patriots Ravens, we go live on YouTube. On today's deep dive preview, however, for Drake May and the Pat's offense, they'll have to handle a certain coverage if they want to succeed on Sunday night. On the other side of the football, a Pat's defense that has not been good versus the run will have a lot on its plate on Sunday night as well. But first, the circumstances of this game will make it a monumental challenge. Today's episode is brought to by Game Time.

Starting point is 00:01:27 Download the game time app, create an account, and use code Lockdown NFL for $20 off your first purchase. Until the second half of the Buffalo Bills game last Sunday, this Patriots team had met every moment post Pittsburgh. After that, Steelers lost at Gillette, when they turned the football over five times, this team had met every single moment, really every single challenge that they faced. That's why they won 10 straight games. The question is, can they do that again this week? After last weekend's loss, after that second half, can the Patriots meet the moment and not necessarily the level of play? This is going to be more about matching the Ravens force this weekend. Can the Patriots match the level of urgency?

Starting point is 00:02:20 The Ravens, they're going to be much more desperate on Sunday night. they need to win on Sunday night. They need to win their division to get into the playoffs. The Patriots, they have a better than 99% shot of making the postseason even after last weekend's loss to Buffalo. So this is a much more desperate team in Baltimore. Again, the Patriots, better than 99% chance to make the playoffs, according to the athletic playoff simulator.

Starting point is 00:02:48 They still have a 73% chance to win the AFC East. Meanwhile, the Ravens, they have a 34% chance. have a 34% chance to make the playoffs, and this is not shocking because they got to win the division to get there. They have a 34% chance to win the division. Lamar Jackson has missed the playoffs once in his prior six years as the number one guy at quarterback. So this is going to be a very desperate, a very hungry football team in Baltimore on national television, Sunday night. I mean, I would expect Baltimore to come out swinging. They saw what happened in the second half to the Patriots against the bills. I'm sure Baltimore is saying to themselves, we have to come out

Starting point is 00:03:34 on Sunday night and punch the Patriots in the face. If we punch them in the face, let's see how they respond. How do they handle that? Because you could argue Buffalo punched the Patriots in the face in the second half. And so coming off that 30 minutes of bad football, you walk in on Sunday night. Baltimore gives you a haymaker to the chin and you're kind of stumbling and bumbling, you could be in trouble pretty quickly. And the Patriots, you wonder, can they emotionally meet that moment? Now, everything, again, everything leading to the second half of that Buffalo game would tell you, yes, the Patriots will emotionally meet that moment and be ready for that haymaker.

Starting point is 00:04:15 But this game's in Baltimore. And this is the toughest road challenge since playing at Buffalo. I know we talked about the Buccaneers game at Tampa. Tampa had a number of guys missing. And really that was kind of the beginning of a tailspin for the Buccaneers who have won only one game in their last six. This is the toughest shot. It doesn't mean that the game at Tampa wasn't tough.

Starting point is 00:04:39 It was. Just when you look at the road challenges for the Patriots, even before the season kicked off, we looked at, man, oh man. You know, week 15, week 16, going to tell us an awful lot about this football team. Those were the two biggest challenges that we underlined at the beginning of the year,

Starting point is 00:04:55 not knowing the Patriots would walk into Buffalo week five on Sunday night and beat the bills. That was stunning at the time. It's a fantastic moment of this 2025 season. But going into Baltimore after what happened to you in the second half against Buffalo, this is going to be the toughest challenge going against the team that has playoff experienced.

Starting point is 00:05:16 They've been there before. The quarterback has been there before. The head coach has certainly been there before. And you're walking into their home stadium for a nationally televised game with their playoff lives on the line. Just the atmosphere of Sunday night football is no joke. Then you start to put all these other layers onto this story. And so the Patriots, you know, can they not only meet the emotion of the moment?

Starting point is 00:05:43 Can the Patriots match the intensity? I expect an intense, physical Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night. They've been a little up and down, right? They've been a little bit of a roller coaster. Kevin O. Stryker, during the crossover, talked about it on yesterday's episode. They have not been a very consistent football team. And sometimes you don't know which Baltimore Ravens are going to show up. If on the Patriots, I expect the best of the Ravens on Sunday night.

Starting point is 00:06:11 So the intensity, the physicality, the urgency, If there's one thing the Patriots can learn from what happened to them against Buffalo last weekend, it was they did not meet the urgency and the intensity in the second half that they needed to meet, whether you say they put their foot off the pedal, whatever you want to say. And now the Ravens, they're going to test that. They're going to test the Patriots intensity. They're going to test the Patriots urgency. They're going to test the Patriots intentionality because don't get it twisted. The Ravens have one intention on Sunday night. And that is to make a statement, go in there, play tough, physical, and put that force up against

Starting point is 00:06:52 the Patriots and see how they react. The Patriots, they also have to look at this as an opportunity, an opportunity to prove to the football world that that second half against Buffalo was just 30 minutes of bad football. We've moved on, baby. We have moved on. We're not worried about that. We're now focused on the task at hand.

Starting point is 00:07:09 And the task at hand is, hey, if we went on Sunday night, then we're in the playoffs. That's it. You're in the playoffs if you win on Sunday night. You don't have to worry about anybody else doing anything for you. Houston, Vegas, they play earlier in the day. You would expect Houston to win that football game. The Colts don't play until Monday night. So the Patriots need one of those two teams, Houston or Indy,

Starting point is 00:07:33 to either lose or tie to get into the playoffs this weekend if the Patriots lose on Sunday night. So they're likely going to go into Sunday night's game feeling like, hey, we have the control of this situation. And if we win this game, if we beat the Ravens, then we're in. And we accomplish one of our big goals for 2025. And that really would be a nice statement by the Patriots, right, to respond from that 30 minutes of bad football to walk into Baltimore on a Sunday night

Starting point is 00:08:03 on national television facing a very desperate and hungry Ravens team and experienced hungry and desperate Ravens team. Go in there and take care of business and wipe away the 30 minutes. wipe away that awful memory of what we watched. Get rid of that stench from that second half. They can do it. They have the opportunity to do it, but they've got to match the intensity,

Starting point is 00:08:29 the urgency, the intentionality, the emotion of what the Ravens are going to bring to the table. Speaking of the Ravens, Lamar Jackson has not been the same dominant force he's been in the past, but that doesn't mean the Ravens offense isn't dangerous. That's next. If we continue with today's Lockdown Patriots,

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Starting point is 00:10:09 get locked on patriots with no interruptions members only discord access and more and this is all for just five bucks a month or get a little bit of a discount this christmas season 50 bucks for the year go to lockdown patriots dot supercast dot com or check the link in the show notes to learn more and don't forget as you watch us if you are watching us on youtube to press that thumbs up give us that thumbs up give us that like don't forget to throw a comment in do you think the patriots will match the intensity, the intentionality, the force, the physicality. Do you think the Patriots will meet the moment on Sunday night when they walk into Baltimore? Let me know. Don't forget to like. Don't forget to comment. And don't forget to subscribe as we continue to aim for the 8,000 subscriber goal that we've had over the past couple of weeks.

Starting point is 00:11:00 We are getting closer thanks to every single one of you. All right. Patriots defense against the Ravens offense. Let's start here. Who in the world is actually. healthy for the Patriots defense. We know Milton Williams is going to be out yet again. He's going to be out. This is his last game. As long as he's physically ready to go, he could be back next week against the Jets. But Milton Williams will not be in Baltimore.

Starting point is 00:11:26 He cannot save this defense this weekend. So no Milton Williams, but also Thursday's practice, not good news, folks. The following guys did not practice. Marcus Jones did not practice. Marcus Jones did not practice. Harold Landry did not practice. Carlton Davis did not practice. Robert Spillane did not practice. Robert Spillane seen with a boot on his foot in the locker room on Wednesday. Carlton Davis left the game against Buffalo, came back. It was reported to be a groin injury. Patriots released that it was a groin injury. Well, now all of a sudden this week, Carlton Davis is not practicing due to a hip issue. What's going on there? Harold Landry, he has missed a lot of practices this year. I would not necessarily panic about Harold Landry just yet, but it continues to be a knee.

Starting point is 00:12:15 He did not practice on Thursday, and Marcus Jones. Now, Greg Bedard had said that Marcus Jones had a tough time getting his shoulder pads off after the game on Sunday. But the designation for Marcus Jones, when you look at the injury report and the DNP, it's actually a knee that's listed. So you're talking about two of your top three corners, not practicing. you're talking about one of your two top edge rushers who have not been necessarily great to begin with, but now we know very thin there.

Starting point is 00:12:47 You're talking about your best linebacker in Robert Spillane. This is a yikes moment. This is not great, Bob. This is that jiff. Not great, Bob. You could be missing five starters from your defense on Sunday night. And this team, we've talked about it for months. We talked about it before the season.

Starting point is 00:13:06 This is not Monday morning quarterback. This is not hindsight being 20-20. This team is thin. With all the turnover, they're thin. And so if you're down five starters, if you're down two of your top three corners, that's not good. Now, Lamar Jackson, speaking of injuries,

Starting point is 00:13:24 he's been dealing with a lot of ailments, hamstring, knee, ankle, toe. I mean, he has gone through it this year. And Football Insights had a very interesting post this week on Jackson. The negative play rate outside of the pocket versus how often quarterbacks leave the pocket. Now, Lamar Jackson is leaving the pocket at the same rate as he did in 2024, 27%. But the sacks on Lamar Jackson have climbed from 6% in 24 to 20% this year. They've more than tripled, which tells us what? It tells us that

Starting point is 00:14:05 Lamar Jackson has less escapeability this season than last season. Now, I thought he moved okay against Cincinnati when I watched the film from last weekend, but he's still not as fast, quick as he usually is, and that's leading to more negative plays. His passing statistics, it's unfair to look at the entire season because of the health, but I will tell you last week, he had a 11.16.6 pass rating. His completion percentage over expected was a plus 3.7. he averaged 12 and a half yards per attempt two touchdowns one interception the one interception was not his fault zay flowers dropped it hit him right in the numbers i would say that lamar jackson also got away with at least one bad throw that was turnover worthy but lamar jackson only threw the football 12 times against cincinnati so it wasn't like lamar jackson was airing it out it was the exact opposite one thing baltimore will do is they will use that late motion with the receivers

Starting point is 00:15:02 as they call it the cheat motion nowadays. You remember this from Miami and Mike McDaniel when he kind of showcased this out of nowhere, Tyreek Hill. Remember when all of a sudden Tyreek Hill was pretty much, you know, doing that late motion to get into his route? Well, you'll see a decent amount of that with Baltimore, especially with Zay Flowers. They will run that late cheat motion.

Starting point is 00:15:25 Speaking of Flowers, Zay Flowers has had some trouble with some drops and he had some drops against Cincinnati. So he's their best receiver. by far. Rashad Bateman has been limited at practice. He did not play last weekend against Cincinnati. So Baltimore is very thin at wide receiver right now, especially if Rashad Bateman doesn't play. I mean, this is Zay Flowers or Bust at the wide receiver position. And you would think Marcus Jones would draw that assignment. But if Marcus Jones is out, who's going to cover Zay Flowers?

Starting point is 00:15:55 We'll see. Now, the biggest test, the biggest test for the Patriots defense on Sunday night is trying to contain this run game from Baltimore. It's the front seven of the Patriots against the run game of the Ravens. Lamar Jackson, Derek Henry, Keaton Mitchell, the offensive line, and their usage of fullback and their usage of their tight ends. And they've got a ton of looks. The Ravens will throw everything at you with their run game. We're talking read option with Lamar Jackson.

Starting point is 00:16:28 We're talking tosses. We're talking pitch plays. They will run eye formation with their fullback. Patrick Ricard leading the way. Patrick Ricard is as big as an offensive lineman. The dude is huge. They will pull their offensive linemen. They will pull their tackles.

Starting point is 00:16:44 The Baltimore Ravens will do everything as a run game. Their 17th in run-block win rate. They are third in rush EPA. They are second in rushing yards over-expected. They are fourth in both yards after contact per attempt, and yards before contact per attempt. And here's the thing. They have the third best rush EPA,

Starting point is 00:17:06 and that is against the sixth highest opponent stacked box rate. Teams are stacking the box to try to slow the run game down. And still, from an analytical standpoint, the Ravens are still effective running the football. And they will play big if they want to. Again, fullback Patrick Ricard, they've got three good tight ends. They will play big if they want to play big.

Starting point is 00:17:30 Now, Evan Lazzar talking about this week, writing about the run defense against the Bills. Buffalo's schemed runs gave the Patriots some trouble, Lizar wrote. The Bills had rushes of 20 yards on third and three, quarterback draw, nine yards on an inverted zone read, and seven yards on a zone read in their option run game. And if you don't think Baltimore, watch that tape. I don't know what to tell you. Baltimore absolutely watched some of those schemed runs and the issues that Those schemed runs from Buffalo gave the Patriots defense, and they're probably licking their chops because Baltimore can do a lot of that same action with Lamar Jackson and Derek Henry and this run game.

Starting point is 00:18:13 Now, Doug Kide of the Boston Herald posted the Patriots defense is 30th in EPA per play in 31st in rush success rate since Milton Williams got injured in week 11. They are literally one of the worst run defenses in all of football. and you're probably not going to have Roberts Blaine for the second straight game. Again, not great. Not great at all. Can the Patriots front seven disrupt the Baltimore offensive line? We know that the pass rush has been non-existent trying to rush four guys.

Starting point is 00:18:49 As Kevin Ostriker, again, during the crossover on yesterday's episode mentioned, though, you know, this offensive line has been very inconsistent. They've been very up and down. I'll tell you the numbers. They're 18th in pressure percentage. However, according to ESPN, they have the sixth best offensive line when it comes to pass block win rate. Roger Rosengarten is number one at right tackle.

Starting point is 00:19:12 Ronnie Stanley is number six at left tackle. Tyler Linderbaum is third at center. And they have the seventh best time to pressure, 2.8 4 seconds. So they're up and down, but when they're good, they can be very good. Ronnie Stanley hurt his ankle against Cincinnati. He did not practice on Wednesday, so we'll see what happens. This has been a chronic issue for Ronnie Stanley, ankle problems. So we'll see if he plays and if he does play, how limited he's going to be.

Starting point is 00:19:41 The Patriots, I think, will have an opportunity to attack the guards. I think the guards are a weakness of this offensive line. Hopefully your interior defensive line can do better than it did in the second half against Buffalo. Now, against Cincinnati, the Ravens decided to keep their tight ends in to help pass protect. And it's really going to come down to which Baltimore offensive line shows up. Is it the good to very good offensive line or is it the mediocre all over the place offensive line? If it's the good to really good offensive line, I would not expect the Patriots to get much of a pass rush at all. I said the same thing heading into Buffalo and that's precisely what happened.

Starting point is 00:20:22 against Buffalo you had almost no pass rush with your foreman and of course special teams is critical especially after last week you've got to force the Ravens into these long fields these long drives your defense has been good between the 20s for the most part this season the Ravens are 24th in the NFL on third down their offense so you've got to get them off the field but special teams coverage is critical drake may Drake may needs a bounce back performance after last Sunday's second half. We'll tell you how he can do that and more next. This is Lockdown Patriots,

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Starting point is 00:22:27 mostly because of injuries. They were hit by the injury bug at just a tremendous level. They got healthier and they've gotten much better. Kyle Hamilton, he's all over the place. When Baltimore traded for Alohi Gilman, who is a safety, that opened up the options for Kyle Hamilton, and he is just ridiculously versatile. He can play linebacker. He can play safety. He can play nickelback. He is a problem. Roquan Smith, second level linebacker, extremely athletic is a problem. Marlon Humphrey might not be the same guy that he was a year or two ago, but he is still a darn good football player. And the aforementioned Alohi Gilman has played some really good football for the Ravens on the back end. The biggest thing for Drake May on Sunday night

Starting point is 00:23:14 is diagnosing what the Ravens are doing at the line of scrimmage. Watching the Ravens Bengals film, what jumps out at you is Baltimore loves showing six, seven, eight guys at the line of scrimmage. They love showing like they're going to send an all-out blitz. But then they drop into coverage. And it's going to be Drake May's job to figure out who is dropping into coverage and who is actually going to come after me. You're going to see a bunch of this, a bunch of games up front.

Starting point is 00:23:43 at times it looks like six guys are going to be sent, seven, eight guys are going to be sent, then four guys dropped, then five guys dropped, then three guys drop. It is a massive headache for any quarterback. And they also disguise their coverages on the back end. So this is a challenging defense and a talented defense. Drake May pre-snap, post-snap has to be sharp. The running backs pass protection has to be very good. The offensive line has to communicate.

Starting point is 00:24:09 Frankly, the offensive line, I think they've played their best two games the last two weeks, even without Will Campbell and without Will Campbell and Jared Wilson in the first game against the Giants of those two. So the offensive line has to communicate. They've got to figure out who's dropping, who's coming, who's picking up who. You've got to watch out for stunts. Kyle Van Nuoy will run stunts every once in a while. Now, the Ravens pass rush, even though the front is very challenging by what they do, the games they play, the pass rush honestly has not been good for the Ravens. Their 29th in pressure rate, their 24th in pass rush win rate. In that Alohi Gilman trade, they traded Adafé OA to the Chargers who has been

Starting point is 00:24:49 excellent at rushing the passer ever since he left Baltimore. The Ravens are 22nd in time to pressure and they don't blitz a lot. They're 22nd in blitz rate. Again, they bank on fooling you. They bank on showing you something and then flipping to something else. And Drake May is going to have to mentally handle that on Sunday night. Now, aside from diagnosing and getting the protections correct. Another key is early down offense. You know, Andrew Callahan of the Herald posted transcribing Mike Vrable, an offensive emphasis this week to stay on schedule, avoid the danger zone of facing the Ravens pressure calls because on third down, the Ravens will mix up their calls, their blitz calls, their blitz packages to, again, try to confuse the

Starting point is 00:25:36 quarterback. So what does on schedule mean? We know what it means. Early down success, which usually means being able to run the football. Now, Baltimore, they will stack the box. They are fifth in stacked box rate. So they will play plenty of guys up close to the line of scrimmage going hand in hand with what I said about Kyle Hamilton a little while ago. And Baltimore has continued to improve against the run. Since week six, according to Evan Lazar,

Starting point is 00:26:04 the Ravens are first in Rush EPA allowed. So they have gotten much better against the run since week six. Now, overall this season, when you look at the numbers, their 10th in run-stop win rate, not bad. Ninth in EPA per rush, not bad at all. Their biggest problem is that they are 20th in yards after contact per attempt. And of course, both guys, Ramandre Stevenson, and especially Trayvion Henderson and the Patriots backfield,

Starting point is 00:26:30 they've done a very good job of piling up the yards after contact. So if there's one way to try to attack this Ravens run defense, you're going to get hit, but you've got to be able to get those extra yards. one thing I noticed what Cincinnati did. They ran out Draymont Jones. Draymont Jones to me is the best pass rusher on this roster for the Ravens. He played for Tennessee earlier in the year. The Patriots played against Draymont Jones earlier in the year.

Starting point is 00:26:55 He was traded at the trade deadline. He is the Ravens best pass rusher, but here's the thing. Cincinnati ran the football at Draymont Jones in that first half. They kept running the football to his end. And I would have to think the Patriots will do the same. Cincinnati pounded Draymont Jones in the run game in the first half last week, to the point where Baltimore switched sides with him and try to do some different things so he could not be targeted.

Starting point is 00:27:21 So wherever Draymont Jones is, I'm running the football at him. He's an edge, but he's a smaller, thinner kind of edge who's super athletic. Here's some other news for the Patriots. Teddy Buchanan, who is the Raven's second leading tackler, tore his ACL against CINC, so he's not going to be playing. And a big question is, can Drake May and Josh McDaniel? He'll force Baltimore out of loading the box against the run. If they can do that, they might be able to stay on schedule,

Starting point is 00:27:47 and they might be able to stay away from that third down defense, which is just chaos. A critical matchup, Patriots receivers, and I'm talking wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs against Baltimore's second and third level. And when you talk about that, you got to talk about man coverage. You know, the Ravens have a number of guys that can cover you. I mention Marlon Humphrey, Kyle Hamilton, Olohe Gilman,

Starting point is 00:28:10 Malachi Starks is the other starting safety on the back end. Even Roquant Smith can do a decent job covering backs. You might be able to get after Nate Wiggins from time to time, but the Patriots have had issues against man coverage lately. Phil Perry wrote about this at NBC Sports Boston. Man to man coverage against any variation of man. Drake May has completed 56.3% of his passes over his last four games against man coverage, 6.6 yards per attempt, which is 19th in the NFL, as is his quarterback rating of 76.4.

Starting point is 00:28:46 His EPA against man coverage in those games is minus 5.95, which ranks 24th in the NFL. The Patriots offense has had some problems against man coverage the last month or so. And Evan Lazzar wrote about the Ravens coverage. Baltimore is a man-coverage heavy team. They've played slightly less man-to-man during their defensive turnaround since really week six, but the Ravens are still top 10 in man coverage rate since week six. They're ninth. So I would anticipate lots of man coverage from the Ravens on Sunday night.

Starting point is 00:29:18 And the Patriots play action could be a big help. Mike Giardt pointed out that the Ravens defense is 23rd in EPA against play action. And the Patriots offense is seventh. So I want to see more play action, much more play action than we saw against Buffalo, which was pretty much non-existent. Final note, situational defense for Baltimore. They're good. They're eighth on third down.

Starting point is 00:29:47 So that's why you got to create. You got to create third and short situations. You want to stay away from those third down pressure packages because they're a good third down defense. Baltimore is also a good red zone defense. Seventh best defense in the NFL in the red zone. All right. So what's my prediction?

Starting point is 00:30:03 Baltimore, by the way, is minus two and a half. this year, what am I? I'm nine and five, I believe, straight up. I am six, seven, and one against the spread. I think the Ravens are going to win on Sunday night. Now, I don't completely write off the Patriots. I think they have a chance to win, especially if turnovers play a role. But I'm concerned about the defense from a health standpoint. I'm very concerned about the Patriots run defense against this specific matchup. And I think the Ravens are going to do enough on Sunday night to win this football game. I've got Ravens 27, Patriots 20. All right, that wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being an everydayer. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio. Don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Hit that like button and subscribe.

Starting point is 00:30:52 And if you need a last minute holiday gift or someone keeps asking what you want, make it easy. Ask for the everydayer club. Add free episodes of this show, exclusive Discord, server access, and more. subscriptions can be gifted through Lockdownpatriots.supercast.com. Have a great day. Have a great weekend. And we'll see you on Sunday night

Starting point is 00:31:14 live for the post game. Be well.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Urgency: Patriots Battle Desperate Ravens—Lamar Jackson & Drake Maye Clash

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