Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Void: New England Patriots Face Critical Test Replacing A.J. Brown

Starting point is 00:00:00 AJ Brown is down, and it's time for the other guys in that wide receiver room to step up, starting with Romeo Dobbs. This is Locked-on Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Tapping in. I am your host, Nick Cattels. On today's show, offense across the NFL is starting to shift, and the Patriots roster is actually built for. In the second segment, all eyes are on Gabe Accus after an impressive debut. But first, the Pat's biggest offensive challenge over the next month plus is surviving without A.J. Brown.

Starting point is 00:00:49 Today's episode is brought to by Game Time. Download the GameTime app, create an account, and use code locked on for $20 off your first purchase. The biggest non- Drake May question this week for this football team is the offensive life without A.J. Brown. What is that going to look like? How is it going to feel? How are the Patriots going to try to replace A.J. Brown's productivity. Don't get it twisted. You can't replace Brown's gravity, right?

Starting point is 00:01:23 The fact that he's going to draw the extra attention. That's not going to happen. But you do have to replace the productivity. Evan Lazzar posted this week that A.J. Brown, his impact on the offense against the Seahawks, you can measure it by success rate. With A.J. Brown on the field, the Patriots' offensive success rate against the Seahawks was 46.7%. Without A.J. Brown, the success rate fell to 35.1%. So more than a 10-point drop-off, 10.6%. Actually, that's terrible math by me, 11.6% drop off from AJ Brown to no AJ Brown in success rate against the Seahawks. All three interceptions obviously happened without Brown on the field. The first one, the intended target, Romeo Dobbs. The second intended target, Pop Douglas. The third intended target, Mack Hollins. Let's start with Mack Hollins. I would expect Hollins to take the of the snaps that Brown would be getting.

Starting point is 00:02:32 And I think we should all prepare for a similar type usage for Hollins over the next month plus without Brown as we saw last year with Mack Collins. I think you're going to see Hollins play a lot of that boundary X receiver guy playing outside a decent amount, right? And I think you're going to see Hollins play in the big slot. Now, Hollins is going to play in the big slot no matter what from time to time, and he's going to play the ex-boundary receiver, no matter what, from time to time. But without A.J. Brown involved with this offense for the next four weeks, maybe as many as six weeks,

Starting point is 00:03:12 I would expect an uptick in Holland's usage at both of those spots. I mean, Hollins is, you know, six foot four, 221. A.J. Brown is six foot one, 226. So if you're talking about frame, you're talking about a player's size and how you can match up to that size as close as you can, it's Hollins. It's not Kyle Williams. Now, of course, Romeo Dobbs is bigger than people appreciate. You know, Romeo Dobbs is 6 foot 2. I think he's about 210 pounds or so, maybe a little bit lighter than that.

Starting point is 00:03:48 I'll look it up right now. But when you look at a 6 foot 2 to 10. So, you know, Romeo Dobbs, also. also has that bigger frame, but Romeo Dobbs is filling the Dobbs role. So the guy who's going to supplant Brown's time, for the most part, I think, is going to be Hollins. His game kind of fits and his size fits. What I mean by his game kind of fits, we talked about Brown, beating corners on slant routes, easy money. Hollins is good on those slant routes.

Starting point is 00:04:21 We saw it last year. We talk about A.J. Brown running some intermediate to deep in-routes. Holland's can run those as well. We saw that happen against Seattle in week one. And that final drive before Drake May through the awful interception, you saw Holland's working intermediate to deep with those in-breaking routes. That's what he can do. And of course, you can also take the occasional shot down field on the boundary with Hollins because he is big. He's got good hands. He's pretty good when it comes to contested catches. So the first guy we look at is Holland. And I think his usage is going to ramp up. It's not ideal given that Holland's is,

Starting point is 00:05:05 what, 33 years old or so, but it's what you have in the room. Then we get to Romeo Dobbs. And I can sit here and break down Romeo Dobbs' role and what he should do. But the biggest thing about Dobbs that I want to address on this episode is that he needs to quickly get past week one. He needs to move on. He needs to move on emotionally. He needs to move on mentally. And he needs to move on physically. Romeo Dobbs needs to forget what happened against the Seahawks week one.

Starting point is 00:05:40 He should no longer be thinking about the drop. He should no longer be thinking about the interception that was thrown his way. and some of the book on Dobbs, if you're looking at strengths and weaknesses when he's coming out in college, some would tell you that drops in college were an issue. Now, it wasn't as big of an issue in Green Bay for the most part, but that was a question when Dobbs was coming out.

Starting point is 00:06:05 So is he going to let that drop against the Seahawks mentally impact him for the next few weeks? Is he going to let it impact him for the rest of the year? Or is he going to put it on the seahawks mentally impact him for the next few weeks? Or is he going to put it on the back burner? Say, I've got to forget about that. I've got to move on with my football life. And I've got to make plays against Pittsburgh on Sunday in front of that Gillette crowd.

Starting point is 00:06:27 That's the biggest question with Dobbs this week. Can he move past what happened? Because not only was he known coming out of college for some drop issues. He's also been known to be a little bit up and down emotionally. And that impacted his time in Green Bay. He was suspended at one point. And so he is somebody that every once in a while, he will allow the types of things that happened against the Seahawks to impact him beyond that individual play. And we saw Dobbs on the sidelines and that Seattle game.

Starting point is 00:07:02 He looked like he wanted a puppy. And in the post game, there were beatwriters posting that Dobbs was taking it pretty badly. He's got to get past that. He's got to focus on the task at hand. then we get to Kyle Williams. And I'm excited for Kyle Williams because this is his opportunity. If he wants a chance at more snaps, he has that chance at more snaps. Now the first question, do the Patriots believe that he can bring more versatility to this offense

Starting point is 00:07:31 than what they've asked him to do? Because primarily he's been that outside boundary guy that brings speed. You know, Phil Perry posted, Mike Grable talking about the wide receivers on Monday, said that, quote, we'll have to move guys around at different positions. Now, is Williams one of those guys that the Patriots plan on moving around? Do they believe that they can do that? Do they trust Williams enough to move him at the line of scrimmage? Is he going to play inside more?

Starting point is 00:08:05 Or is he just going to stick with that role that he's had from day one, really, which again is the speed element on the outside? We'll see how much this Patriots coaching staff believes and trusts in Kyle Williams over the next month or so. Maybe the biggest question about Williams is not his route running. It's not where he's going to line up. It's his blocking. You know, pretty telling. Taylor Kyle's posted that, you know, Mike Vrable said Kyle Williams had a couple of decent returns and ran decisively.

Starting point is 00:08:36 But Vrable did note that Williams, you know, there was some blocking confusion that needs to be. corrected. So look, you could look at it and say special teams, the blocking on the special teams units, will that spring Kyle Williams free for some big returns? And then you also have to look at Kyle Williams himself as a blocker because we know. We know it for a fact. If Williams does not consistently block for this offense, he's not going to play as much. It's as simple as that. It's a huge key to Josh McDaniels in his offense. It is absolutely a fundamental part of a Mike Vrable football team. Again, the effort in the finish.

Starting point is 00:09:19 So not only when Kyle Williams is out there as a kick returner and the return unit blocking, but also Williams himself as a blocker, can he consistently at least get in the way? Because we know if you can't block as a receiver, it's going to limit your snaps and you become a major. quote-unquote tell. Because if you're not a consistent run blocker at that position and you're out there on the

Starting point is 00:09:47 field, then the defense is going to feel like they're going to throw the football here. They're going to throw the football because Kyle Williams is out here on the field. It was similar to Pop Douglas last year where Pop Douglas was limited in his snaps at times because he's not the biggest dude. He's not a great run blocker. We discussed that ad nauseum in 2025. So when Williams is out there, is he going to be able to block. consistently the Patriots. They need the run game. They want the run game. The last point I would

Starting point is 00:10:15 make, tight ends and running backs. Tight ends and running backs, tight ends and running backs. In this past game, Eli Raarden, step on up. We know what to expect from Hunter Henry, but Eli Raarden can you become more of a factor in the past game? Pravion Henderson, can you straighten out your third down issues? Remandre Stevenson had a great camp as a receiver. the Patriots can use their tight ends and running backs in the passing game more than they have over the past year plus. And they're going to need to have everybody chip in without A.J. Brown. Again, you're not going to draw the attention with these other guys that A.J. Brown draws. But if you can replace the productivity, you can find ways to make this thing work with Drake May, then you'll be fine.

Starting point is 00:11:04 Coming up, Gabe Accus is already pushing for more snaps after his first week in the NFL. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. The NFL is full of games you plan for all year, but sometimes the best memories come from the games you almost missed. Game time makes it easy to find tickets to NFL matchups you want to see with prices that include fees so you know your total cost up front. You can browse games, see a panoramic view from your seat. seat before you buy and get tickets in just a couple of taps. Tap tap-tappy plus zone deals let you choose the section and let game time choose the seats to help save even more. Whether it's a rivalry

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Starting point is 00:13:36 So we know that training camp was not great for Gabak, as we talked a lot about that. He was late to the party. And when he was out there, he looked lost. He looked late. And we saw the preseason games. He looked lost. He looked late. Well, in week one, against the Seahawks,

Starting point is 00:13:55 Gayback has completely flipped the script. He only played 19 snaps on defense. In those 19 snaps, he finished with three tackles, one tackle for loss, and a sack. He had three or four flash plays. including chasing down a ball carrier from the opposite side of the field. It was a tremendous play, a ton of effort, a ton of energy, racing from his spot on the edge, across the field, all the way to the sideline to tackle the ball carrier from behind.

Starting point is 00:14:27 That's the type of play that is going to get the attention of Mike Vrable and every other defensive coach in the room. So even though he played only 19 snaps, I mean, when you're making three or four flash plays, In only 19 snaps in your first NFL action, like the real NFL action, live bullets, regular season football, very tough place to play like at Seattle, very tough offense, good offensive line to deal with with the Seahawks. And you're making a flash play pretty much every six or seven snaps you're out there. That is accomplishing something. That is getting it done. That is catching eyeballs. simply put, Gabe Accus earned more snaps this week against Pittsburgh, given the way he played

Starting point is 00:15:17 against the Seahawks. And I certainly hope we see more of Gabe Accus. Now, if he fails, if he falters, he falls back, it's okay. We have to understand he's a rookie. He's going to have ups and downs. But when he plays the way he played last week, you reward the young man. Of course, he's got to go out there and practice and practice well, but you reward somebody with more playing time

Starting point is 00:15:44 when they put the film together that Gabe Accus put together against the Seahawks. So Gabe Accus has absolutely earned more snaps in week two. And it begs the question. I'm not the first person to ask this question. I think a lot of us asked the question watching this play out last week with him. is Gabe Accus just a guy that needs the full week to prepare. Is Accus the type that, you know, if you throw them out there with a bunch of unpredictability, you're not necessarily studying up on teams before you have joint practices,

Starting point is 00:16:18 you're not studying up on these teams before you get to the preseason game. It's kind of an is what it is environment. And you throw him into the deep end and you see how he responds. And again, he looked lost. He looked late in the preseason. Was that a product of just not feeling comfortable, not feeling prepared? And is ack is the type of guy that when he has a full week to devote himself to studying a team, he looks much, much better.

Starting point is 00:16:52 There are players that are like that. There are players that are not necessarily great at adapting on the fly or if they're unsure of themselves. they're not going to really make the plays that they're capable of making. It's more understandable when you're a rookie, of course, because it's your first time in the NFL. It's the first time lining up against these guys you're playing, all that stuff. But with a full week to prepare,

Starting point is 00:17:17 and now that you played on Wednesday night, you have a week plus to prepare for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Maybe Atkins is just that type of player. He needs the time. He needs the prep. So he is confident and comfortable. and then he allows his natural tools and gifts to take over. Got plenty of more thoughts on Gabe Accus.

Starting point is 00:17:37 But first, if you're watching us on YouTube, don't forget to click that thumbs up. Give us a like. Helps us with the algorithm. Don't forget to throw a comment in as well. How do you want the Patriots to replace A.J. Brown's productivity? What do you think they need to do? How do you feel about Gabe Accus after his debut with real season football?

Starting point is 00:17:57 I feel much better about Acus right now than I feel. felt all throughout camp, I'll tell you that. And don't forget to subscribe on YouTube as well. 11,000 subs is the next goal. If Accus is competent, that's significant. He doesn't have to be an all pro. He doesn't have to be a pro bowler, not this year. Now you hope he gets to those levels, of course.

Starting point is 00:18:17 But with this team not playing Quintavius Hutchins, a single snap on defense in rotating three defensive ends, you want that third defensive end to at least be competent. You want confidence in his. that when you put him out there, he's going to be able to make some plays. Because the Patriots will be able to get away with, quote, unquote, three defensive ends if they're rotating their interior defensive line guys. Here's another point.

Starting point is 00:18:45 With the signing of Dayquan Jones, this now makes it more likely that you can push Milton Williams to the edge every once in a while, that you can push Christian Barmore to the defensive end position every once in a while. Because now you have a veteran that you believe in that will be able to clog that hole. So if you're going to play, for example, Dayquan Jones, along with Christian Barmore, well, now you can float Williams to the outside. So that helps the versatility of this defensive line. And you can get away with this for the next few weeks.

Starting point is 00:19:23 And then, of course, you hope that Harold Landry comes back. Now, that might be pie in the sky. but if Landry comes back, he doesn't have to be the Harold Landry from the first five or six weeks last year. You hope that he would be, but he doesn't have to be that guy if you have Accus competing and contributing. If you are getting something from Elijah Ponder more consistently this year, if you are using Williams and Barmore more at the end,

Starting point is 00:19:50 because now you have Dayquan Jones and Corey Durdin that you feel pretty good about. Accus holding up against the run lessens the importance of Elijah Ponder having to figure that out. One of the questions we have about Ponder is, will he be able to consistently for 17 games in the regular season defend the run? Will he be able to hold up on the edge? And the jury is still out. You don't answer that question in one week.

Starting point is 00:20:17 But if Accus can do it, then you've got Accus. You've got Draymont Jones who can certainly do it. and then again, you've got some other options if you're pushing some of your interior defensive lineman out to the defensive end positions. The pass rush for this football team is still a huge question. Against the Seahawks, four-man pass rush, the pressure rate was about 20%. You're not going to be able to survive if you're getting 20% pressure rate with your four-man rush.

Starting point is 00:20:48 Like, you've got to get something more than that. Or you're going to end up blitzing. a ton and relying on your corners like you did in week one. It worked in week one and your corners are really good. But now the safety net, it's not as large. It's not as vast as you want it to be. They've got to be able to get that four-man pass rush going at least a little bit. And maybe that's Gabe Accus playing more snaps. Maybe that is tweaking the Elijah Ponder role. Maybe it's using your interior defensive lineman on the edge. But Gabe Acis being able to be out there and giving you, let's say 25 to 30 snaps, if he can give you that,

Starting point is 00:21:26 it helps everything else kind of fall into place. NFL offense is going full circle and the pats are prepared for it. It's coming up next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. There are certain flavors that instantly feel like summer. And for a lot of people, those classic red, white, and blue freezer pops are right at the top of the list.

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Starting point is 00:23:39 Fandul. Make this your most rewarding season ever with Fandul. Visit fandul.com to get started. Thanks for checking out the Lockdown Podcast Network. Now the number one sports podcast network. Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe if you're watching on YouTube. Good news on Monday at practice. Trayvion Henderson was back at practice, and so was Ben Brown.

Starting point is 00:24:02 Now, the not so great news, Robert Spillane was not at practice on Monday. Now, of course, we always had the disclaimer with Mike Vrable and how he manages veterans. This could be a load management day for Robert Spillane, but he was not there. Demetrius Crownover was also not at practice, which, of course, would hurt your offensive tackle depth. But let's get back to Spillane because if Spillane misses any time, your off ball linebacker spot gets very dicey and very quickly. You know, Christian Ellis, he was hit or miss against Seattle, and I thought he was actually more missed than hit.

Starting point is 00:24:41 So you don't want to see either of those guys out, but especially Robert Spillane, who I thought played fairly well, save for a couple of plays here and there. He did miss a tackle or two. but I thought Spillane on balance was good against the Seahawks, Ellis not so much. Of course, getting Trevion on Henderson back would be a lift to your offense, a lift to your explosivity. He would be part of trying to replace that A.J. Brown productivity we talked about in the first

Starting point is 00:25:10 segment, so it'd be great if Henderson could be back out there against the Steelers on Sunday. Meanwhile, let's put a bow on the offensive approach conversation because I want to look at the rest of the NFL. And when you look at all 32 teams, what's happening is almost a running game renaissance. The NFL is moving towards running the football more and more. And they're actually moving towards running the football with bigger personnel. You go back to the L.A. Rams with the 13 personnel last year. And we've talked about Mike Reese had the note a couple weeks ago that there were, I think, more than 20 teams in the NFL that went into this season with at least four active tight ends on the 53 man. And that's a change. So you're seeing more

Starting point is 00:26:01 tight ends on a lot more teams. You're seeing more big personnel and you're seeing teams run the football. Sean Siyah from Sumer Sports posted excluding kneel downs and spikes. And this was before Sunday night football and Monday night football. Excluding Neals and Spikes, we saw the highest under-center usage and efficiency for a week one since 2022. 42% of the time, we saw a team under center. You compare that to 2022, it was 30.9%. From 23 through last year, 2025. We did not see that percentage eclipse 30%. In teams that had over a 10% change from going under center from last year to this year in week one, Vegas, the Jets, the Ravens, the Jaguars, the Falcons, the Cardinals, the Lions,

Starting point is 00:27:02 the commanders, the Niners, and the Bengals. 10 teams, almost a third of the league. And the impact was significant when looking specifically at first down. Ryan Paganetti, a strategy and analytics coach. He's the guy that posted the Patriots kicker video board social media post that went viral a couple weeks ago. Paganetti posted on normal situation first in 10 plays NFL offenses were undercensors 66.5% of the time. More than two thirds the time, normal situation first and tens NFL offenses, this week lined up on her center. That's up from 45.9% in week one of last year. That's a 20.6% jump higher than every full season rate since 2012. And more under center means big boy football is

Starting point is 00:27:59 making its way back. Paganetti also posted that fullbacks were on the field for 12.4% of the offensive plays in week one. That's up from 7.5% in week one last. season. That is a 4.9% jump in a 66% increase. So what's going on? Well, offenses. I talked about this actually at my fantasy football draft this year with a buddy. Defenses are playing more two deep safeties. We saw this happening last year. Mike Vrable on W. EEI on Monday morning said, hey, look, I know people are killing us about the conservative approach, but when you're playing two split safeties, Defenses are trying to take away the explosive plays downfield.

Starting point is 00:28:46 They're trying to take away a quarterback like Drake May being able to chuck it down field and pick up 30 to 40 yards at a time. So when you see those two safeties way back, they're inviting you to run the football and they're banking on their front seven to be able to stop the run. And that's happening across football. More teams are playing more two deep safeties on defense, which means more offenses are running the ball, which means more offenses are under center more,

Starting point is 00:29:12 which means you have more tight ends and you have more fullback usage. It's a full circle type moment. And the Patriots this offseason, they understood the mission. They go out and they add Julian Hill. They go out and they add Reggie Gilliam. Now, of course, the Hill injury absolutely hurts. And Gilliam, to me, against Seattle, was pretty me. But the Patriots, they understood the mission.

Starting point is 00:29:39 now it's trying to execute. It's understanding what you need to do versus being able to execute what you need to do. The Patriots against the Seahawks did not consistently execute. You need to block. You need to block up front. One more note about the Seattle Seahawks game

Starting point is 00:30:04 before we move forward. I did not understand. You know, when you look at, again, under center, big boy football, I didn't quite understand the Patriots wanting to go big boy football, established the run, et cetera, et cetera. Having both Tanner Arkin and Cameron Lott too active on Wednesday night, but neither guy took a single snap on offense.

Starting point is 00:30:27 There were zero three tight end snaps on Wednesday. I would like to see that be a part of the Patriots game plan. I would like to see a few snaps of 13 personnel every week. I mean, what's the point of having both Arkin and Lott too active if they're not going to play any offensive snaps? Like, what are we doing? All right, that wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C Radio again. Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe on YouTube.

Starting point is 00:30:59 And now on video, we're going to send you to the first ever 24-7 YouTube channel on the NFL. And on audio, you can check out Lockdown Fantasy Football with Fabz and Marcus for your second listen. Appreciate all of you. Thanks for checking us out. And we'll talk again with you next time.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Void: New England Patriots Face Critical Test Replacing A.J. Brown

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