Morning Brew Daily - $350K to Flee the Middle East? & Target Has a Plan to Win You Back

Episode Date: March 4, 2026

Episode 792: Neal and Toby chat about the fallout from the war in the Middle East, with spiking gas prices, luxury stocks slumping, and travelers finding all types of ways to escape the war zone. Then, Target reports another disappointing quarter, but its new CEO has a plan to turn it all around. Meanwhile, the World Cup is 100 days away and most of the focus has been on security. Plus, McDonald’s CEO is getting roasted for his reluctant bite of the Big Arch burger and Burger King took the chance to take jabs at its competitor.  Learn more about Bland AI at bland.ai/mbd Join us for trivia! https://mbdtrivianight-march2026.splashthat.com/  Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.swap.fm/l/mbd-note⁠⁠⁠  Watch Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Consider this comparison. PWC data found the percentage of CEOs who report revenue gains or cost reductions from AI is almost equal to the percentage who say they're still stuck. What separates these two groups? PWC points to a clarity issue. Even for CEOs, it's hard to tell what's AI hype, what's reality, and where this tech can make a tangible difference. Learn where AI can actually make an impact and what successful adoption looks like at

pwc.com slash US slash brew AI. That's pwc.com slash us slash brewAI. Good morning brew daily show. I'm Neil Fryman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, Target's channeling Fun 101 to turn around a miserable stretch. Then McDonald's and Burger King are beefing over new beefy burgers. It's Wednesday, March 4th.

Let's ride. Coming up this Sunday, Americans will spring our clocks an hour forward for daylight savings time, knowing full well we'll have to switch them back come. November. But in British Columbia, they're switching the clocks on Sunday and then never changing them again. The Western Canadian province, home to Vancouver, announced it is adopting year-round daylight saving time, citing the need to reduce disruptions for families and provide an extra hour of daylight in the evenings. Premier David Abbey said that the people of British Columbia made it crystal clear that the clock switching wasn't working. In a 2019 report, 93% of participants

supported daylight savings time across the year. Here in the U.S., various bills, have been floated to make daylight savings time permanent, but they've gone nowhere. Apparently, it doesn't have to be that way. 93% of people supported this, but scientists are not part of that 93%. They actually prefer not daylight savings. They prefer permanent standard time. And the American Academy of Sleep Medicine actually called for the abolition of daylight saving times in 2020 because they're saying that it's less healthier for you. It increases traffic accidents. It increases risk of stroke and cardiovascular events because more sun in the morning and more darkness in the evening actually better reflects sleep cycles. So it is very fascinating, though, how everyone else is like,

nah, I would actually much rather have my afternoons a little bit more sunny than have a better sleep hygiene. Where do you fall in this divide? I feel like we've talked about this ad nauseum, but I just want to hear it. Totally depends on if you're a morning person or an evening person. The evening people want it to be laid out as much as possible so they can do as much stuff in the evenings. but if you're a morning person, you're up at six or seven or four like us, then I think you want to optimize for it being as early as possible in the mornings. But I understand that that is not the way most people feel. It just feels dark whenever we're coming to work, leaving work.

It's just dark all the time. Then again, daylight savings time is the best if you want to get as many rounds of golf and in a day as we do. I'm sold. Now a word from our sponsor, Bland AI. I just spent two hours on the phone with my bank, only to not get my problem solved. Sounds like your bank could use a little help from Bland AI. They create a unified interactive voice response across SMS calls and chat that can actually resolve issues end-to-end.

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Earlier in the day, as he heard on Tuesday's MBD, stocks were down real bad, but paired those losses by the afternoon. Oil spiked as much as 8% but also came back down to Earth, still climbing more than 4% on the day. Investors were breathing a sigh of relief after President Trump made assurances around transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important maritime choke point that connects Gulf energy with the rest of the world. Trump, sensing he had to do something to calm soaring energy prices, said the U.S. would provide risk insurance to ships passing through the Gulf and the American military would escort tankers to ensure a safe passage. On Monday, an Iranian commander threatened to set fire to any ship that tries to traverse the strait while basically no ships are currently passing through at the moment.

So big picture, where are we? From the past few days of trading, it appears that Wall Street views the war as having mostly insignificant impacts on the economy with some potential for serious damage should the Strait of Hormuz stay closed for much longer, sending an energy shock around the world. Goldman Sachs came out saying that inflation could go substantial. higher if the war goes on for longer than expected. But Toby, I want to start not in the Middle East or the U.S., but somewhere very far from both of those places, South Korea. Yeah, South Korea had a

rough one in the markets over the past few days, really. The Kaspi, which is kind of their flagship index, had its worst single day decline ever on Wednesday. The Korea Exchange had temporarily halt trading for it multiple times because some of their biggest stocks have been falling precipitously, S.K. Hynix, Samsung, two names that have benefited very well from the AI trade are down double digits. And the reason why South Korea was hit so hard as one, they have very high single name concentration in the index. The two names, S.K. Hynex and Samsung, constitute almost 50% of the entire index. So two companies have a massive sway over it. And then also, Korea is very acutely sensitive to oil price spikes. They are a very major oil importer. They have a

manufacturing heavy economy that is very vulnerable when you see crude prices spike like this. So when you take into account the fact that there is an oil crisis seemingly far away in the Middle East, it still definitely trickles down to an economy like South Korea. And we saw it reflected in their market performance. Most of the oil that comes from the Gulf is going to Asia. It's not going to the United States. Still, we are seeing reactions here in the United States as well in the form of a gas price increase. The average price for a gallon of gasoline jumped 11 cents overnight yesterday to about

$3.11. That is the largest single day increased since March 4th, 2022, right after Russia invaded Ukraine. And this is what happens when oil prices go up. 60% of the price you pay at the pump reflects the price of crude oil. So almost instantaneously, you see gas prices go up in reflection of higher oil prices. It does take weeks and months to eventually see all that filter through the system. But you're seeing an almost immediate reaction from what we're seeing in the Middle East here at your local gas station. We're also seeing some interesting things happen with Safe Haven assets throughout the market because we saw stocks, gold and treasuries, all traditional safe haven assets kind of falling simultaneously. But one thing is going up right now.

That is the U.S. Dollar. The Bloomberg dollar spot index has rallied one and a half percent. so far this week of 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. Only the dollar was positive. And this was not something that a lot of people expected because we've been hearing all about the debasement trade and how the dollar is at threat of being the world's reserve currency. But right now is what is happening is traders are fearing that inflation could come back because energy prices are going up. That is going to make treasuries less attractive.

Plus the U.S. is a net energy exporter, while most increasingly. economies are net importers. All of these things lead to asymmetry that benefit the dollar. So a surprising winner of this conflict has been the U.S. Greenback. And one of the maybe surprising losers is luxury stocks. They are among the hardest hit sectors on Tuesday. Shares of LVMH, carrying Burberry, just all the stuff that we can't afford to buy, have been tanking this week. They're down all about 10%. And that's because the Middle East has been one of the main drivers of growth for luxury companies. China demand has been waning. The U.S. demand has been waning, but one place where they can still sell their wares is the

Middle East. And there's also something that investors like to say is the feel good factor. And when people feel good and are optimistic and are hyped about the future, that's when they go spend on luxury stocks. And so when there's a war going on, it has a more negative outsized impact on these kind of companies. And then finally, one storyline to pay attention. too. We were actually just scrolling through the New York Times as most read stories about the war. And the top story right now is how the wealthy are fleeing the Middle East right now because private jet prices are just astronomically high right now. They're always astronomically high. But they've served roughly three times normal. If you want to catch a flight from Riyadh to Europe,

that is $350,000 right now. So people are trying to get out. Dubai's airport is largely closed. So how else can you get out? Some people are driving to Oman and flying from the Muscat airport. Some people are driving to Riyadh from Dubai, which is a 10-hour drive alone. And then you have to pay for the flight. So one thing to, I don't know, keep an eye on is wealthy travelers are scrambling to get out of this region. Moving on, Target reported earnings yesterday, and it was unlucky number 13 for the struggling retailer. It's comparable sales fell 2.5% in the quarter, marking the 13th consecutive quarter.

of weak or falling sales. Net profit was down 5.1%. Number of shoppers down as well. Everything was falling. Everything except its stock, which rose nearly 7%. Why? Because new CEO Michael Fidelke has a plan. Fidelke took over on February 1st after starting his career as a target intern back in 2003. And now he's rolling out a $6 billion plan to make Tarje competitive again. He's allocating $2 billion towards revamping stores, including sprucing up some of locations which haven't seen a facelift in 15 years, the in-store experience will be guided by the framework of greet help thank, which is the LinkedIn version of Eat, Pray, Love. Then he wants to do a category by category overhaul from home goods to apparel to grocery. For instance, by June, Fidelke

hopes to turn over 75% of Target's home decor lines to recapture some of that knick-knack magic that it used to channel. In short, Target doesn't want to be known as in everything store anymore, according to Videlke, but is instead betting on busy families to drive its turnaround. Neil, sort of an odd framing there, but is he on target? Well, we won't know for a while. I mean, these things take years. He even took a season or two for Mike Frable to bring the Patriots back to the Super Bowl. Kurt Signetti took three years to take the Hoosiers to the National Championship. There's more stories in the business world of the new Starbucks CEO, taking some time to implement their changes and only one, two, three, four years down the line do you start to see

improvements if the plan is working. I think it is smart by Fidelke to say we are not the everything store and focus on what Target has typically done best. He's rolling out this thing called Fun 101, which focuses on trends in sports, gadgets, games and pop culture. And yes, they are targeting this population. I was going to say niche population, but it's a large population of busy moms and dads and really leaning into baby care. out these things like baby concierges to help people find stuff for their little kids. So it seems like a smart play overall. But I think the number one thing to pay attention to is just the money.

They are spending money to make money. They are going to spend $2 billion this year on store improvements and hiring more staff in order to make these stores a place that you want to go back into again. But they do recognize that, hey, we have missed the mark in almost every category lately, specifically home goods, because that is where Target had a lot of its magic over rivals like Walmart. And right now, their new SVP of Home, who joined last fall, said, our home business has not delivered to his potential point Blake. So they want to remodel everything.

They want new products coming through. This is also happening in the apparel section as well. They're trying to have trendy clothing hit shells faster. They're going very heavily into the Western look right now with cowboy hats and fringe jackets and embroidered jeans. So if you've been low on embroidered jeans lately, Neil, you can go to Target to pick those up. They are expanding. It's a baby division. and then grocery has been a surprising bright spot amid the sea of darkness.

It had 8% average annual sales growth since 2019. Half of Target shoppers are already going to their stores to shop for groceries. So I think they're going to lean into that, more private label. This playbook has been run by others like McDonald's, or not McDonald's, by Walmart before. So I think they're just saying, hey, why don't we just do the thing that we know works and try to get people to shop for groceries at Target? I am not low on Western. I am low on Western wear, but I'm not low on graphic T's from Target because I think I bought their entire selection when I was in junior in high school and still somewhere

around my house. All right, moving on, yesterday marked 100 days until the start of the World Cup. But in the lead-up to the world's biggest sporting event, the competition on the pitch is the last thing people are talking about. Let's get this part out of the way first. The upcoming World Cup hosted in the U.S. Mexico and Canada is guaranteed to break all kinds of records in terms of viewership, attendance and revenue, FIFA President Gianni and Fentino, ever the hype man, predicted it will be, quote, the greatest event that humanity, mankind has ever seen or will ever see, which maybe doesn't sound so hyperbolic when estimates show that six billion people, about three quarters of the world's population, will tune in in some form. But with outsized interest comes

outsized controversy. While the World Cup is supposed to be an event that brings the world together, it's arriving at a time of significant geopolitical unrest. President Trump, the winner of the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize is at war with Iran, which is slated to play in the tournament on American soil. In Mexico, cartel violence near Guadalajara, a host city, has officials stressing it's safe to a worried public. Meanwhile, domestic divisions in the United States are holding up necessary funding for World Cup venues, which are about to embark on the biggest homeland security operation the country has seen in decades. Toby, I think I could digest all this a lot better if the U.S. team was any good. Save us, Wesen McKinney. Let's start with just the geopolitical

turmoil. Iran not only is at war with the U.S., but he's also attacked many other World Cup participants. Qatar, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, these are all countries that are wrapped up in this conflict, but are also playing in the World Cup. FIFA tries to stay politically neutral. Now, you might say have they done a great job of that lately giving a made-up peace prize to President Donald Trump? Maybe not, but they're in a very difficult position right now. So there's a lot of open questions on this front. Could some of Iran's games be moved to Canada or Mexico if they play in the tournament at all? If Iran does drop out, then who comes in and it takes their spot? There's a whole security threat associated with Iranian games at this point as well. So just a cloud hanging

over this tournament that didn't need another controversy to deal with. And another controversy besides the geopolitical stuff is what's happening here at venues in the United States that are supposed to host these World Cup games, there are 11 or 12 of them. They are waiting for $625 million worth of security funding that was doled out in the one big beautiful Bill Act last summer. They haven't seen a penny of it, and they say, we absolutely need this. The reason they're not getting it is because, remember, there's a partial government shutdown still occurring, and this money has not been doled out. The host of the Miami Committee said within the next 30 days is the drop dead date for receiving the funding or else they're going to have to start to cancel

some of those fan fest or other events that are happening around the game. He said it would be catastrophic for our planning and coordination for them to not get this money. So they are pleading with the U.S. government to dole out the $625 million. And meanwhile, something's happening in Foxborough, Massachusetts, where the Gillette Stadium is, that is straight out of VEP or Parks and Rec. The local select committee there, just held by regular Boston dudes, is holding up. game is holding up handing out a license for FIFA to play in its stadium because they say they want they are on the hook for eight million dollars in security funding and they say we're not

paying it we're just here in Foxborough like we allow the Patriots to play but you didn't come to us and ask for this money so we are holding up giving you the license you're not going to be able to play unless someone comes through with eight million dollars in funding so you have these local Foxborough guys going against FIFA over eight million dollars in funding Foxborough is holding FIFA hostage right now. It sounds like a horrible, you know, Ben Affleck movie coming down the pipelines. All right. We're going to take a quick break and come back and talk about burgers right after this. Cyber attackers these days don't need exploits. They'll just use your allowed tools against you. That's why Threat Locker enforces default deny at execution. This security model stops unknown

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McDonald's has a new burger out, though you might have already known that given a recent viral video posted by its CEO. The big arch hit menus yesterday, and it is big. Two quarter pound patties, three sizes of white cheddar, crispy onions, a new special sauce, all sandwich between a sesame and poppy seed bun. McDonald's CEO Chris Kippinski tried to hype people up for the beefy boy with a video posted to his Instagram but got universally dragged for calling the burger a product in taking what was in his estimation a big bite, but what was determined by literally everyone else to be a comically small nibble. Tick-Tock recreations of the video have racked up over 20 million views,

mostly making fun of him for looking deeply uncomfortable eating his own company's burger. Enter Burger King. Their president, Tom Curtis. posted a video on TikTok where he took an actually enormous bite of a Whopper and posted it with the captain thought we'd replay this to help promote their newly updated Wopper recipe. The tit-for-tat exchange is a good window into what's happening across the entire fast food industry right now. Every major chain is in an arms race to build the biggest, beefiest, most protein-packed burger

they can, partly because beef is really expensive right now and they need to justify charging you more for it, and partly because after years of raising prices, chains are trying to give you more beef for it. your buck. Neil, the big burger wars are here, and I am freaking hungry. Toby, I haven't seen someone bullied online like this since you were posting a lot on Twitter. This CEO made two preventable mistakes that opened them up to a lot of bullying and jokes, which is taking a small bite and calling it the product. Something he can't change, though, is that he just kind of looks a little dopey overall. It's because he's a CEO. He's not a competitive eating champion. But I think

The lesson is don't have your CEO get on camera to eat a burger unless he's going to scarf it down like Joey chestnut. Right now we are in a protein arms race in the basically every industry, but especially fast food. Because I think what fast food execs have figured out that protein has become shorthand for more value and more satisfaction. So if you do a bigger burger, more beef, more cheese, more everything, then you seem like you're providing more value to customers. Wendy's has a limited time cheesy bacon cheeseburger. Carl's Jr. and Hardys have so many burgers that I don't even want to name because I feel like I'm burning calories just talking about them. Meanwhile, though, you do have some trying to go against zinging while others are zagging. Shake Shack has launched a good fit menu with lettuce wraps, but still high protein option.

So the main through line here is that we want more beef. We want more protein because it feels like you get more bang for your buck when that is on the menu. Well, Shake Shack is going the GLP1 route in catering. of people who are on those weight loss drugs. This is not a GLP1 play. Let's just roll the tape with this particular big Archburger. 1,020 calories, 53 grams of protein. At a South Florida location where Axios tried it, the sandwich weighed 12.7 ounces.

It costs more than $8. In comparison, a Big Mac weighs 7.8 ounces costs a little under $6. And a double quarter pounder with cheese is 740 calories, weighs 10.1 ounces. So this is a huge burger. And the context is over the past few years, there has been a price war among Burger King McDonald's, pretty much every fast food company because people are balking at their high prices that they raised in the wake of COVID. Now, they can't cut prices forever because they have to protect their margins.

So what they're doing here is leaning into premiumization and trying to say, yeah, we're going to sell you a $9 burger, but you may not have to eat anything for the rest of the day because it's so big. I do want to take a trip back to 1996, though, because McDonald's is sort of repeating history here. They rolled out the Arch Deluxe back then, and they made it a big splash. He spent $200 million on an ad campaign for this, but the issue was most of the ingredients overlap with the Big Mac and a quarter-pounder with cheese. So here they were saying that, hey, we have this big deluxe new burger, but it's more expensive version of the burgers we already have on their menu. So I do

wonder if they're going to cannibalize some of their other burger sales. Is this differentiated enough? And I do think the bun, it goes a long way and do this because it has seeds on it. That is, or poppy seeds as well. And it just looks different than a Big Mac. It looks different than a quarter pounder. So similar, similar story to the plan that they kind of boofed 30 years ago, maybe the Big Arch can do what the Arch Deluxe could not. At least we got the memes. I mean, the two burger CEOs eating their burger and the people. People were making great jokes. The burger mogging was very, very high. Now let's bring to the finish with some final headlines.

Sam Altman has some regrets. Yesterday, during a company All Hands, the head of Open AI, told employees that he wished he hadn't announced a deal with the Pentagon so quickly, according to a Wall Street Journal report. This comes after a spat between the Department of Defense and Anthropic that saw OpenAI's chief rival designated a supply chain risk. Altman swooped in mere hours after, and though he doesn't regret, signing a deal, he told staff that it looked opportunistic and sloppy, though the company has since amended its contract to include barring domestic surveillance of U.S.

nationals. He went on to say during the all hands that it had been an unpleasant few days to try so hard to do the right thing and get so absolutely personally crushed for it is really painful. And it seems he's aware that the rush job may have tarnished his company's brand. I think this was an example of a complex, but the right decision with extremely difficult brand consequences and very negative PR for us in the short-term Altman said. Neil, looks like Altman knows that AI users are not looking kindly upon this deal. Yeah, he's absolutely right.

There is clear evidence that users are defecting from ChatGBT, GBT, to Claude by Anthropac. US app uninstalles of ChatGPT's mobile app jumped nearly 300% day-over-day on Saturday, according to Censor Tower. Now, the actual, the typical day-over-day uninstall rate is 9%, so 9% versus 290,000. That is a huge difference. And then meanwhile, US downloads for Claude jumped by 37% day over day on Friday, which was the day this deal was made. And 51% on Saturday. Meanwhile, Claude Leapfrog Chat.

Chappetit to be the number one app on the app store. So these are two companies, two bitter rivals going in opposite directions. And the direction Anthropic is going is literally to the moon. A new recent report found that Anthropics on track to surpass $19 billion in revenue, up from $14 billion. several weeks ago. When you're measuring $5 billion in the span of weeks, that is a company that is firing on all cylinders right now. Back in January of 2025,

the annualized revenue for Anthropic was $1 billion. Now it's pushing $20 billion. It's one of the fastest growing software stocks, or not even a stock yet, software companies ever. It is crushing it right now. It's amazing. I mean, just go back at any point over the last six months,

12 months, we probably have crowned a different winner of the AI wars. If we probably took a snippet of this show 12 months ago, we would have said Open AI is the leader in the field six months ago. Maybe would have said Google and Gemini. And now we're saying that is anthropic. So these things move so fast. All right, Lufthansa is making a tweak to its carry-on policies to make traveling a bit easier for one niche community, professional musicians. Starting on Sunday, the German airline said it would be applying a more generous rule around small instruments like violins and trumpets that can be taken on planes. The change is the result of a months-long campaign by one concert violinist, Carolyn Widman,

who late last year was told at the Helsinki Airport that her violin case was too big to be taken on board. The problem? Her violin is basically priceless, having been crafted in Italy in 1782. She ended up taking the violin out of the case and wrapping it in her sweater for the plane ride, describing it as having a Van Gogh painting in your hands. After her frustrating flight, she raised awareness around the instrument issue by pestering airline with letters and sharing her progress on social media. Her insistence seemed to strike a chord with other musicians who face similar problems, and ultimately, Luthonsa relented.

I get scared when I take my AirPods out on a plane because I might lose them. Imagine if you got a multi-million dollar delicate instrument. I was diving into the TSA's policy on things like this, because this was kind of a European story. Brass instruments must go in checked bags. You can't bring those on because I think they could be potentially used as a weapon. violence, drumsticks, and guitars can be carry-ons only after hand inspections, though. So it really depends on what part of the band are in and whether you can bring your instruments on board with you or not.

A trombone is a weapon, but drumsticks are not. I know. Well, I guess that's wood is a little less dangerous than metal. But yeah, it is interesting. I do feel for the airlines in this instance because they were basically saying we can't do one-off exceptions for every single passenger. It is hard to do a blanket policy because maybe my... violin that I played in middle school is not quite as valuable as her violin was. So I do feel for them when they try to do blanket policies like that.

Yeah, I never got good enough at cello to carry it on a plane. Okay, that is all the time we have. Thanks for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful Wednesday. If you'd like to reach us, send an email to Morning Brew Daily at Morningbrew.com or DM us on Instagram at Embed Daily Show. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our supervising producer. Raymond Lou is our senior producer.

Our producer is Olivia Graham and our associate producer is Olivia. Lake. Hair and makeup took too big of a bite of the big arch and is laid up. Devin Emory is our president and our shows are production of Morning Brew. Great show, Daniel. Let's run it back tomorrow. Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is California's number one entertainment destination for today's superstars. Catch the Jonas Brothers return to the Yamava theater stage on April 30th, the powerful vocals of Demi Levato on May 17th, and the signature Southern Country Rock of Eric Church on July 19th. Tickets on

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