Morning Brew Daily - AI Investors Ask, Where’s The Money? & Spirit Airlines Goes Premium
Episode Date: July 31, 2024Episode 377: Neal and Toby discuss whether investors are right to be concerned about the massive AI expenditures being made with little to no revenue to show for it. Then, the US Senate just passed th...e Kids Online Safety Act to force tech companies to have stricter online rules for teens. Next, Starbucks misses its earnings expectations as same-store traffic continues to fall in the US and around the world. Plus, a number of startups are doing what Theranos wanted to do… minus the whole fraud part. Meanwhile, perhaps the failed JetBlue-Spirit merger was actually a good thing? Lastly, the latest news and stories from the 2024 Paris Olympics. Checkout https://beehiiv.link/morning-brew-daily and get a 30 day free trial and also 20% off 3 months with code BREW Get your Morning Brew Daily T-Shirt HERE: https://shop.morningbrew.com/products/morning-brew-radio-t-shirt?_pos=1&_sid=6b0bc409d&_ss=r&variant=45353879044316 Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Good morning, Brude Daily Show.
Reimann. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, a new batch of startups is promising to test your blood with just a few drops.
Sound familiar?
Then to the first meaningful online child safety bill in decades just past the Senate, but opposition lies in weight.
It's Wednesday, July 31st. Let's ride.
The Olympics have been going on all week, but an even bigger competition has been raging on outside of Paris.
The competition between Team Neil and Team Toby over who can sling.
more Morning Brew Daily shirts.
And boy, do we have an update for you.
To recap, last Wednesday, we offered dueling discount codes for you all to use in our merch shop, Toby 20 or Neil 20.
Both codes got you 20% off our T-shirts, but we wanted to see which one was used more often.
And I am happy to report that Team Toby has made a stunning comeback to take the lead with 24 hours to go on the contest.
Neil, anything you'd like to say to your supporters about your performance.
Yes, people.
I just want you to know that great moments are born from great opportunity.
And that's what you have here tonight.
That's what you've earned here tonight.
If we played Toby 10 times, he might win nine.
But not this contest.
Not tonight.
This is your time.
His time is done.
It's over.
I'm sick and tired of hearing about what a great t-shirt selling team Toby has.
Screw him.
This is your time.
Now go out there and take it.
I'm ready to skate through a brick wall right now.
But because I am nice and because it's a fun social.
experiment, we decided to test the limits of Team Toby's support and have introduced a new discount
code to help Neil out. For the next 24 hours only, you can use code Neil 21 for a 21%
discount at checkout. So let's see if that 1% is enough savings to tilt things in your favor.
But Neil, remind us, what are we playing for again? First of all, I don't even need Neil 21.
We could go to Neil 15 and I'd still crush you. What we're playing for is that if I lose,
I will run a mile for every t-shirt that I lose by.
And then for Toby, if he loses, we need to have this happen, people.
He's going to dye his hair pink.
Remember, we ask you guys to submit ideas about what we should do.
And we got a lot of hair-dye recommendations.
And then one person came up with the run-a-mile for every t-shirt.
So let's get Neil Sweatting people.
Team Toby, let's come through.
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In a rare showing of bipartisan support, a pair of bills overwhelmingly passed the Senate
yesterday that aimed to make the Internet a safer place to be for children.
The two bills in the package, the Kids Online Safety Act, aka COSA,
and the Children and Teen's Online Privacy Protection Act, aka COPA 2.0,
represent the first time that Congress has taken meaningful action in years
around regulating social media's impact on kids and teens.
COSA would force online platforms to take reasonable steps to protect users under the age of 17
from harm like bullying or sexual exploitation.
It would also hand more power to guardians to control how minors can,
use certain features like AutoPlay, while Copa 2.0 is an update on a 1998 law that would ban
targeted advertising towards minors. Notice I said only the Senate passed these bills. The House
is pulling at Clark Griswold and going on vacation for the next six weeks for its summer recess,
so we'll have to wait for it to vote on this package before it can make it to the president's
desk. Still, COSA and COPA 2.0 passed the Senate with a lopsided 91 to 3 vote,
showing that there is clearly widespread support for an initiative like this.
That really is, and it's just remarkable that there hasn't been any movement on this issue since
1998, which was way before Facebook and even the iPhone was invented.
The internet is a completely different place at this point with social media.
These recent bills were sparked by Facebook whistleblower Francis Hagan, who came forward
with documents showing that Facebook knew that its platforms were harming some younger users
and that it didn't take any steps to mitigate that.
That got this show on the road a little bit.
Congress hauled in all of these tech executives.
They testified they apologized for all of the harm that they've caused to certain kids
that were subject to cyberbullying and even led to deaths in certain cases.
So it does seem to be widespread bipartisan support, at least in the Senate, to do something
about it.
But there is a lot of opposition from both the left and the right for these particular bills.
Yeah, specifically out of the House, because even if the House was in session,
They've been pushing for a different approach towards online safety than the Senate has.
They've been advocating to put some of these protections within a broader data privacy bill that covers everyone, not just kids.
So it does look like there will be some pushback to that.
And then obviously some tech lobbyists and some free speech experts are worrying that the bill may be unconstitutional in some regards because it might empower government officials to basically regulate anything on the internet that they disliked.
And so there is, it's always a two-sided sword here.
You want to give regulators power to protect these kids, but you don't want to give
them too much power that they start infringing on the inherent free speech rights of the
internet.
One of the main opponents of this bill comes from the LGBTQ community because they say
that they could be weaponized to block certain content that LGBTQ young people have used
to really come to grips with their identity and find like-minded people.
So they're worried that state's attorneys general who will be empowered.
by this bill could block all of that content.
And it shows how the internet is both maybe as used for harm,
but it also is a particular lifeline for certain communities to find people who are just
like them.
And they say it's been so helpful to find people like me.
And I don't want to have these regulators or people that I don't know are going to,
you know, they have this mandate to block harmful or dangerous content.
But that is really left up to them.
and they say this infringes on their free speech rights.
And then proponents of COSA in general have pushed back about these thorny constitutional debate issues about speech online saying that they are looking at it more as they're seeking to bring consumer safety protections to social media.
And then the example that they cite is that when regulations required seatbelts in cars, again, it's not preventing you from driving.
It's not preventing you from doing anything.
It's just trying to make things more safer in a dangerous environment.
for some of these kids. And some tech companies, a lot of tech companies are actually on board
with it. Snapchat has come forward in support of it. So has Microsoft. Elon Musk and X have also
come out in support of it. Meta kind of gave it a tacit endorsement as well. So clearly,
there is a ground swelling of support from this more powerful lobbying group of these parents and teens
affected by online safety things. And so I think we're going to see movement here for the first time
in decades. In the past two years, big tech companies have spent under
told billions planting artificial intelligence seeds that they hope would one day yield a bountiful
harvest of even more money. But the fruit still isn't ripe and investors are getting a little
impatient. Yesterday, Microsoft kicked off a big week of tech earnings with disappointing results.
It said growth in its cloud business, which is the one that was supposed to be juiced by AI,
had slowed while it was forking over even more money on building out AI infrastructure.
cap X or capital expenditures jumped to $19 billion in the last quarter, up from 78% the year before.
For its total fiscal year, Microsoft spent $56 billion on CAPX.
Now, CAPX is the number one most important metric in the tech industry right now.
It just refers to all the money these companies are laying out to build those expensive physical data centers that power their AI systems like chat GPT or co-pilot.
but there's growing concern that all this AI spending won't bring it enough revenue to justify
the cost. And in the past month or so, you've seen a big market rotation out of AI stocks and
toward other parts of the market. Just consider perennial stock of the weak contender,
NVIDIA is down more than 16% in the month of July. Toby, it seems Wall Street is losing
its patience with the AI revolution just a little bit. I am trying to think of the proper
metaphor for what big tech has done in the last year. This really isn't perfect, but you know
a friend who picks up a new hobby and then buys all the gear for it and then never really
uses it. I mean, like the guy who drops three grand on a new set of golf clubs, but then
only plays it once a year. But instead of three grand on golf clubs, it's $19 billion in
CAPEX in business investments in one quarter. And I don't know how to extend this metaphor to
its cloud business as well, but it's like your friend who sells golf club also sells golf club
storage. And not a lot of people are going golfing in general. So it does seem like they got out a
little in front of their skis. And what Wall Street really wants is just a path towards money.
They're saying you've invested so much in AI. Are we going to see any returns anytime soon?
Is the promise of AI going to manifest in the short term, in the long term? We just want to see
some sort of profits contributing to to justify this spend that you guys have done. And it's just
they're getting a little antsy for sure. And they're just bringing in a little revenue and they're saying,
No, we'll bring it in in 2025.
Don't worry.
I actually have a better metaphor, I think.
Okay.
It's like hosting a party and you buy all this food and you overspend on the food because
not having enough food and running out of food is way worse than just having a little
too much to put in your fridge after.
And that's exactly what's happening.
You hear it from Zuck.
You hear it from Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai.
They say they acknowledge they're spending too much.
I mean, Zuck in a recent interview said, I think there's a meaningful chance that a lot of the
companies are overbuilding now in that you look back and you're like, oh, well, we all may be spent
way too much. We spent billions of dollars too much. Sundarpeachai also said this, but they also said
this. They said the risk of underinvesting is way less than the risk of, or the way, the risk of
overinvesting is way less than the risk of underinvesting given the potential of AI 10 to 15
years down the road. So they're locked in what you may consider a game theory arms race, where they're
all making not exactly rational decisions because they don't know what the other person is going to do.
So they're just spending gobs of money to make sure that they're in a good place. But investors are
kind of turning their backs on it a little bit. Here's the crazy part about all this. There are
three options. One, the promise of AI comes good and relatively soon. We see this huge creases in
productivity and huge creases in revenue. Two, it takes a little longer than expected to reap
the rewards of AI. Or three, the promise of AI never materializes. In all three scenarios, you're going
to have to incinerate billions of dollars to get there to find out which path we're going down.
So regardless of if there's a pot of gold at not, regardless of how big the pot of gold or not,
you have to spend this money to get there.
So yeah, you're right.
Overbuilding is not a dirty world in Silicon Valley whatsoever.
And I think people are, they're playing the game theory.
They might as well have these data centers, have these Nvidia chips rather than not have them.
So as a meta and Amazon continue to report this week, that cap X number will be something definitely
to watch. Moving on to Starbucks, which is desperately counting down the days to PSL season.
And that's because its business is stuck between a rock and a pike place. Yesterday, the
struggling coffee chain reported that same store sales declined for the second straight quarter
with 6% fewer people showing up to its U.S. stores than a year ago. The stock price nudged up
following the earnings call, showing how a bar set solo isn't that hard to clear. Pressure is building
on CEO Laxman Narasiman to give Starbucks a jolt of caffeine. American consumers have chosen to get their
morning brew elsewhere due to higher prices. Get this, in North America, the cost of the average
order at Starbucks has increased by 50% since 2019. Starbucks is also getting stuffed into a locker
in the key market of China by a chain called Luckin, which now is more than double the number of
stores as Starbucks in the country. And these struggles have invited a lot of criticism of management. Earlier this
month, the activist investor Elliott management took a stake in Starbucks and is pushing for changes.
And former two-time CEO, Howard Schultz, has been chirping leaders from the sidelines, writing,
I think we're not at our best now. Toby, I want you to put on your McKinsey consulting hat.
What's going wrong at Starbucks and how would you fix it?
I do not have a hat like that in my locker. But I think what you're seeing is a lot of the same
headlines and a lot of the same headwinds that the broader fast food industry is experiencing, because
Falling foot track, falling check size, leading to falling sales.
Consumers were just pushed up to the absolute brink of what they are willing to pay.
And when they see these rising prices, they're saying, they are finally putting their foot down and say,
we're pulling back a little bit.
Also, Starbucks just has lost its way a little bit in the last decade.
It used to be this third place where you could go to hang out.
They had these comfy chairs, the nice jazz music, the smell of coffee aromas.
Now it's a glorified takeout counter.
That's all it does because it realized that it could make more money.
by just having people pop in, get their mobile order, and leave.
So I just think it's lost its way.
It's lost its DNA a little bit.
So I don't know if that's my consulting hat on there,
but let's return Starbucks to what it was,
which is this third place where a lot of people have been looking for in society these days.
That's not happening.
It's not happening.
So it's not my consulting hat.
It's my nostalgic hat.
That's your nostalgic hat.
But we're not going back to that time.
That was when a lot of people bought hot coffee.
But now Starbucks sells mostly iced coffee.
a lot of lemonade's and iced teas as well.
And most of their stores now just have a drive-through option.
70% of all of their locations do drive-through.
That's up from just 15% in 2005.
So it has become sort of commoditized coffee,
where it used to be this premium brand.
So I don't know, because I don't have a McKinsey hat in my locker either.
But this management has to figure out a way to distinguish Starbucks
from all the other coffee chains out there that are selling iced coffee
and find a way to just drive profits.
A big thing of that will be leaning into their mobile ordering.
I know it's exactly the opposite of what you think,
but that's exactly how they're going to make more money,
is making sure they deliver better results from when you order mobile.
I mean, there was a stat from last quarter's earnings report,
which was insane.
It was that one in eight people drop their order out of mobile ordering
because it was going to take too long.
So they need to drive operational efficiency.
This is what Howard Schultz is saying,
and everyone's looking to see if he's going to be,
if he's going to pull a Bob Eiger and come back to the company yet again out of retirement
to fix things that are going on.
We'll see if he does that.
He's continuously denied it, but he clearly does not like the way things are trending.
I think you do have a McKinsey hat in your locker deal.
That was pretty well done.
Up next, a look at the companies that are trying to bring back Theranos's doomed blood testing device.
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You all remember Theranos, right?
its turtleneck wearing founder Elizabeth Holmes
and its promise to diagnose
a variety of maladies with a single drop of blood.
Well, it may have just been ahead of its time
because other companies are living out
its finger-pricking dreams.
Companies like Bechtin, Dickinson, and Babson diagnostics
have been doing their best to iron out the technical details
that sent Theranos to the startup graveyard.
Beckton has this handheld finger-prick device
out on the market that is faster and less painful
than a standard blood draw,
while Babson has developed a device.
that collects one-tenth of the amount of blood typically drawn.
Their claims aren't as lofty as Theranos.
Babson plans to actually test the blood at a centralized lab
or with other manufacturers' machines.
But it's clear that even though Theranos spoiled the dream
of a quicker, easier diagnostic test from a single drop of blood,
there's still plenty of interest in alternatives to standard blood drawing.
Yeah, let's remember what Theranos promised.
They promised to take some of your blood
and then test for a wide range of diseases with that single prick.
And they also invented a device called Edison that would be able to do it.
This is the most important part, right at the Walgreens where it was taken, making this whole process extremely simple.
It was very fantastical.
All of these guys who started these companies said, we didn't believe it as soon as we heard it because that seems absolutely outrageous.
What happened with Theranos was this machine, this Edison thing, didn't work.
and they ended up taking it to more traditional machines made by Siemens,
and then Theranos was exposed, and now Elizabeth Holmes is serving 11 years in jail,
just down the road from where these new finger-pick startups are happening in Austin, Texas.
But it's interesting to hear them talk about Theranos and say,
look, what they did was obviously objectionable and horrible,
but they kind of shook up this industry that had been at this particular status quo for decades
and just wasn't innovating, and she showed what was possible,
or at least she showed at least some ambition
in sort of shaking up this industry that hadn't done much for decades,
and you're starting to see some movement.
I know they're not as ambitious as she was,
which probably they can't be because it didn't work.
But it would be very nice and helpful to our public health
if you could do more tests and make this whole blood testing thing a lot easier than it is now.
Right, because if you look at what the current process is,
is you have to go, it's very invasive, you stick a needle for the non-needle inclined out there,
it's very dramatic, into your vein, and you draw a significant amount of blood, and then it
goes sent out to a lab for testing. It usually takes a little bit. So these companies are just
looking to, one, draw a lot less blood, a lot less painfully or a lot less dramatically if you
don't like needles. So it's usually like a finger prick or an upper arm prick. And then what they
do is just try to process it very quickly. They have devices that can immediately put it at the
right temperature, start processing it,
send it through a lab that's local,
and then you get a text with your results
just 24 hours later.
That's the dream.
It's not as ambitious as Theranos,
but that they think is a meaningful step forward
in the way that we currently do blood tests.
And if you can get the amount of things
you're testing for on par with that huge vial
of blood you take from your vein,
then that's another big unlock as well.
And they do think that they're right around
at par with these more invasive blood tests,
which is a big step forward.
And a big part of this is that you can just have a pharmacist do it instead of a specialized phlebotomist, which is a great word.
Yeah, so we're rooting for these guys.
Let's hope we don't see them in a Hulu documentary 10 years down the road.
Some couples just aren't cut out for marriage.
And after breaking off their engagement earlier this year, Spirit and JetBlue Airlines are making big moves in their single lives.
JetBlue stock popped more than 12% yesterday after unveiling a turnaround plan that involves pulling out of more markets and pushing off $3 billion worth of
airplane purchases. Also yesterday, Spirit made the surprise announcement that it's introducing
premium service for the first time, a major pivot for the company that pioneered that bare-bones
type of flying that inspired many copycats. Let's go back to that ill-fated engagement. JetBlue agreed
to buy Spirit for $3.8 billion in order to bulk up and take on the big guns, Delta, American,
and United. But regulators decided that the combined company would be a bit too bulky and
cause higher fares for passengers, so they blocked it on antitrust grounds.
Investors were concerned that left alone, JetBlue, and Spirit, would flounder and be devoured
by their bigger rivals. But instead, they're proving to be more chameleon-like than anyone
expected and have shaken up their businesses to chart a sustainable path forward.
They were both left to do a little soul searching. Any time you break off a long courtship,
you do have to either look internally or look externally. I think Spirit looked externally and
said, we're going to reinvent our look. I'm going to dye my hair.
blonde. I'm going to look like the cooler other carriers. So now it's looking for that increased
revenue from some of those premium services. JetBlue, on the other hand, I think looked internally,
maybe went on a darkness retreat, did a little ayahuasca, came to the realization that it needs
to rework some of the routes. It flies. So it's cut 50 of those unprofitable routes, pulled out
of seven cities. It's doubled down on New England. It went back to its roots. So they are both
handling the breakup in their own ways, but I think that they're both coming out of it stronger than
when they went in, which is all you can really hope for when you break off a relationship.
Wow.
Toby, we'll have to go for you for advice from now on.
But I think Spirit specifically is really marks the end of an era.
I know I say it all the time.
But because, I mean, just last week, Southwest also dropped its boarding, free-for-all boarding
style and is now siphoning off one-third of its seats for premium cabins.
And Spirit, which is really just when you think of ultra-low-cost budget airline, I mean,
spirit. And now it's having, it has essentially first class, it broke it up into four different
packages that you can buy. Go big, go comfy, go savvy, and then go, which is what you can buy on
spirit now. So it's just kind of an acknowledgement. It's a capitulation that this ultra low fare
model that it pioneered and that Southwest was doing and that Frontier has been doing is just not
working in the current environment. People want to be able to pay for better service and for more
legroom.
Now let's head to your daily Olympics update
which is so hard for us to stash at the end of the show
because there are simply so many good storylines we want to talk about
but alas time is short.
So first, a quick update on the river Sen.
They cleaned it up.
Despite the water quality being touch and go for multiple days,
organizers declared it safe this morning for athletes
and so both the men and the women are swim bike and running
as we speak.
Thank goodness, Neil.
I would have been so sad of the triathlon took swimming out.
I know.
I just wouldn't want to be around you.
if this didn't take place, but they spent $1.5 billion cleaning it up,
and then I guess they just needed one extra day to make this happen.
So kudos to them, and I hope this leads to just more swimming in the scent in the future for non-Olympians.
Now let's move to gymnastics where Simone Biles and Team USA defeated the Twisties and a plucky Italian side
to take home gold in the team competition yesterday.
It was a controlled display of excellence from top to bottom as Jordan Childs, Sunni Lee,
and Jade Carey all came up huge for the U.S.
But Neil, it's hard not to be happy for Simone.
She had so much pressure on her after what happened in Tokyo.
And she came through.
She now has eight Olympic medals, the most all-time for U.S. gymnasts, five of them gold.
She's just the goat doing goat things.
Yeah, it was awesome to watch.
They called this the redemption tour after getting that shocking silver in Tokyo.
And they were just head and shoulders above everyone else.
And now we're all turning to the individual competition where Simone Biles could rack up at least four more medals.
While the gymnastics team winning gold was very much expected,
no one was really tabbing our American women's rugby team to bring home some hardware.
But our girl, Ilona Maher, and her squad proved the doubters wrong,
upsetting Australia in the bronze medal game in heroic fashion.
And I do mean heroic.
Alex Sedrick scored a last-minute try going coast to coast with eight seconds left on the clock to make history.
And I know last-minute try might cause some of your eyes and ears to glaze over.
So I'll put it in football terms.
Cedric essentially truck stick to girl
then ripped off a 95-yard touchdown run
with no time remaining to crush the hearts of the Aussies.
It was epic, it was emotional,
and it was the first ever medal for women's rugby seven.
Yeah, I think anytime you have this
maybe more obscure sport get a lot more press like this
and we have a bronze medal,
now it inspires more people to play it.
So hopefully the brand of women's rugby
and rugby in general will only grow in the United States
because of this.
It can really have this catalystic action.
Finally, Neil, we have to talk about the South Sudan basketball team, which takes on Team USA today in the group stages.
It's as David versus Goliath of a matchup as you could ever draw up on paper.
South Sudan's program is self-funded by former NBA player Luwold Dang.
It only has one player with meaningful NBA experience.
And for one of its training camps, it flew to Rwanda because there were no indoor basketball facilities in South Sudan.
And yes, the team pushed the U.S. to the brink in an exhibition game leading up to the Olympics, only
losing by one point. So you got to love this team. It's very hard not to root for them against
team U.S. I wouldn't be that mad if they won. I mean, this is an amazing story. Luelding, basically
one guy funded this entire program. And they are actually the newest country in the world.
It was just started in 2011. There's been a lot of civil war there. And most of these basketball
players grew up outside of the country because their families had to flee. There is actually one
Duke recruit playing. So watch him.
because you're going to see him in March Madness next year.
All right, that's a good place to end it.
Thanks so much for starting your morning with us.
Have a wonderful Wednesday.
If you have thoughts, we want to hear them.
Send an email to Morning Brew Daily at Morningbrew.com.
Let's roll the credits.
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Great show day, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow.
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Get free delivery during online deal days,
plus $30 off your first online order.
Ralph's, fresh for everyone.
