Morning Brew Daily - AI Music is Catching On & Businesses Have a Penny Problem

Episode Date: October 31, 2025

Episode 704: Happy Halloween! Neal and Toby cover Apple’s earnings which beat expectations thanks to a reinvigorated demand for the iPhone 17. And Amazon’s cloud business is booming.Then, since the stoppage of the penny, businesses have been unsure what to do when they need to give their customers exact change. Also, a popular AI music generator raised funds at a $2B valuation and just released a free version. Meanwhile, as more Americans are turning to GLP-1 drugs, obesity in the US has steadily declined over the last three years. Finally, a British reporter interviews the wrong Bill de Blasio. Whoops. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Consider this comparison. PWC data found the percentage of CEOs who report revenue gains or cost reductions from AI is almost equal to the percentage who say they're still stuck. What separates these two groups? PWC points to a clarity issue. Even for CEOs, it's hard to tell what's AI hype, what's reality, and where this tech can make a tangible difference. Learn where AI can actually make an impact and what successful adoption looks like at

at pwc.com slash US slash brew AI. That's pwc.com slash us slash brewAI. Good morning brew daily show. I'm Neil Fryman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, chaos at the checkout counter as retailers run out of pennies. Then Apple and Amazon completed the big tech earning slate. Who popped and who flopped?

It's Friday, October 31st. Let's ride. Happy Friday and happy Halloween. It looks like this town is big enough for the two of us because I am dressed as Space Ranger Buzz Lightyear and Toby is There's a snake in my boot. You guessed it, Woody. There's been an intergalactic emergency

that I've been called upon to address but somehow crash landed in a podcast studio with a cowboy sitting next to me and absolutely no signs of intelligent life anywhere. You are a toy, Neil, T-O-Y toy. I will say there was some debate in the office yesterday as to who was going to be Woody and who was going to be Buzz.

So I am curious what you all think did we end up in the right costumes? Is Neil giving delusional intergalactic space ranger with no sense of reality? And am I giving insecure cowboy nervous about losing Andy's love? Let us know in the comments. We'll post a picture on our Instagram as well, so you can weigh in and check out the fits there. And now a word from our sponsor, Disney Campaign Manager. Are your marketing campaigns reaching a tailored audience, or are they just reaching an audience

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Well, one day after Google raked in $100 billion in one quarter, Apple joined the triple-digit billions club, bringing in 103 billion in its fiscal Q4, about 8% higher than a year ago. The iPhone put the team on its back again, showing sales growth for a second straight quarter after years of stagnation. Sales rose 6%, but Apple is projecting an even rose to 10 to 12% growth in the next quarter, nearly double what Wall Street was expecting as people are upgrading to the iPhone 17 model in droves.

But this is not an early career, LeBron on the Cavs situation. The iPhone does have help these days, mostly from the services division, which has been growing like a weed. Apple's Services Division, which includes App Store Commission, subscriptions, and the $20 billion annual payment for Google to remain Safari's default search engine surpass $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time ever. But things weren't all hunky-dory for investors with sales in China flashing warning signs. Revenue in the region fell by half a billion dollars compared to last year. Neal, definitely a solid quarter with an assist from the iPhone 17 release.

Kind of a weird stock reaction, though. The stock initially fell 4%. and after-hours trading as investors digested the China performance before quickly reversing and jumping 3% into the green because who knows why, honestly. Well, I think it's because Tim Cook did an interview and he said the iPhone demand for the iPhone 17 family was off the charts. And we knew this coming into this earnings report. There was other reports that had come out previously to this from third parties that said that people were loving the iPhone 17. They were absolutely gobbling it up. Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, which was an analyst for.

said that there is great interest in the pro and pro max models, while the new iPhone 17 air model showed virtually no sign of traction. So, you guess people don't care about this air, this very lightweight device that Apple unveiled. But the pro and pro max models are selling like hotcakes. And it's a start of a new, what they call a super cycle for people upgrading their iPhones, which they had previously done in the early days of COVID in 2020 and 2021. They're looking at their phones, little khakis screen there, a little slow moving apps. over there, and they're like, okay, it's time to upgrade to a new iPhone, whether it has, you know,

whiz-bang AI features or not, because clearly there was no huge AI pull here because Apple is still far behind in the AI race. It just didn't seem to matter to consumers. They kind of said the magic letters a few times. They say they expect to increase their capex and AI investment, which is literally what every single big tech firm just said. Apple is doing it on a much smaller scale than the multi-billion dollars that they're, counterparts are outlaying. But Apple has also said, Tim Cook said that they're open to pursuing M&A. That's been something floating around the rumor meal for so long now. Is Apple going to make a big splash and buy up one of these hot AI startups to try to get their neck in the in front of

competitors in the AI race? And Tim Cook didn't shut the door on that, say, hey, if a good deal arises, we are absolutely interested in that. And then the final thing we should talk about with Apple is tariffs. Cook said that they expect a $1.4 billion tariff hit. That is actually taking into account the decrease that just happened from the Xi and Trump meeting, 20% tariff down to 10%. So it's still $1.4 billion, but kind of music to investors' ears in a way because you are seeing tariffs start to head in a lower direction when it comes to China. Last up on the big tech earning slate, we have a laggard of the magnificent seven so far this year. Amazon. entering today, it had year-to-date gains of about 5% with shares missing out on the AI frenzy that has buoyed its counterparts.

But it channeled its inner MJ and took that personally, posting a blowout quarter to stick it to all the haters. Remember when Apple and Google crossed $100 billion revenue threshold? Amazon saw sales for the period rise 13% to $180 billion. Most of its profit, though, came not from your toilet paper orders, but from its AWS division, which saw revenue rise 20% in the period as it looks to keep its nose in front of fast-growing rivals Alphabet in Microsoft. CEO Andy Jassy said AWS was growing at a pace we haven't seen since 2022. He also called out particularly strong demand for its AI offerings. Despite running the world's largest cloud business by revenue, Amazon has been largely shunned by investors who see it as

losing ground to those nipping at its heels. But Jassy T's some unannounced deals worth more than all the new deals in its third quarter. Neil, the stock jumped 13% after hours trading. Looks like it's got some pep back in its step. Amazon is humming on all cylinders. People are continuing to spend on its marketplace. So strong consumer spending means more people shopping on Amazon. So so many of it, so much of its sales come from that e-commerce platform. And that is doing really well. It's building a lot of new smaller warehouses closer to where people live because its bottom line is that when we put warehouses closer where people live and they get faster delivery, that just

causes them to shop more. So if you look at something and it says, it's going to be delivered later today or tomorrow, you are much more likely to buy that than if it's going to come to your doorstep in two or three days. So that is what Amazon is investing in in the e-commerce front. But the headline here, the reason it jumped 13 percent, the stock jumped 13 percent, is the cloud, the strongest growth in almost three years. And a lot of investors had thought that AWS was so big that it was, you know, it had almost plateaued and it wasn't capturing the market share from all of this AI spending. Well, guess looks like it is. There was a sales jump of 20% huge margins for the AWS business. And so Amazon is back on the front foot. Yeah, it's interesting that it was almost

a narrative that Amazon was fighting here rather than the actual business reality because, yeah, it did seem like it had so much of the market. It expanded so big that it wasn't growing anymore. But Andy Dassey's like, actually, the exact opposite problem is happening. We're having capacity issues. This is what all, you know, the big hyper-scalers are saying that we don't have enough data centers to bring online to support this AI push. And so yesterday, Amazon announced that they have this new project, Project Reiner. One of its biggest data center initiatives is finally up and running an operational. So some of that supply crunch may be starting to change here. So maybe it was kind of a narrative shift as well as saying, actually, we are dealing with too much

demand here. We are going to still grow as long as we can bring this capacity online. I remember back in February when Trump killed the penny and everyone rejoiced. Well, the hangover has arrived because this is starting to cause chaos at retailers. Since late summer, you might have noticed signs at your local store pleading with customers to pay an exact change because their registers are totally cleaned out of pennies. After President Trump ordered the mint to stop issuing new pennies in February, because they cost 3.7 cents to make but are only worth one cent. The last new pennies were shipped out to banks in August. As those coins made their way through the economy and ultimately to people's coin stash at home, retailers say they're not able to get their hands on enough pennies to produce exact change.

Without pennies to hand to customers, some stores are rounding down, but that can become costly. The Midwest convenience store chain, Quick Trip, said it's begun rounding down every cash transaction to the nearest nickel, which is going to cost it $3 million this year. Others are trying more creative tactics to refill their penny coffers. Sheets, the pride of Western Pennsylvania, ran to $3 million. a brief promotion that gave customers a free soda if they brought in 100 pennies. Toby, retail and banking industry groups say they are happy with the decision to stop producing the penny, but they're also frustrated that it happens so suddenly and without any support

or guidance from the government. Yeah, it's so interesting to think about these retailers and banks rationing out pennies. They become this scarce resource, which is ironic because so many pennies are produced each year. I mean, just last year, they issued 3.2 billion pennies. Where do all those pennies go? they just don't stay in circulation. As they said, they mostly end up in couch cushions. They end up in coin jar. So it is a supply that you have to replenish every single year. And since, you know,

the government has said, we're not going to make them going forward. You are seeing these penny crunches. It is fascinating. In certain states, it is illegal to round up in transaction. So which is why you're seeing, you know, the quick trips of the world start to round down, which does have a meaningful impact. because, you know, a few cents here over tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of transactions, that does add up to the bottom line. So I think the big thing in here, people are pushing for clarity. We just want to know what to do. Can we go up to the nickel? Can we go down to the nickel? Just tell us some guidance. Right. So the convenience store lobby and the banking lobby is pushing for Congress to pass a law that would allow them to round to the nearest nickel so they don't have to round down

because that opens up a whole host of legal issues. So they are throwing their weight behind this law called the Common Sense Act, which calls for transactions to be rounded to the nearest. Nickel up or down, so they just have some clarity on this issue because they are running out of pennies. And if you go around to your story, you might see it. There's 103 Kroger's in the Cincinnati Dayton area that put up signs that says the U.S. Treasury has stopped production of pennies, which is now impacting supply. If using cash for payment, please consider providing exact change. The last time retailers had to put up these kind of signs was during COVID when the Fed had trouble,

distributing new pennies and new coins all across the United States. So, you know, shades of COVID here where retailers are just running out of coins, specifically the pennies and they're going to have to pinch them. It's Friday, so you know what that means. Stock of the Week, dog of the week, the segment where Toby and I pick one stock that secured the treat and another that got tricked. I won the pre-show Evil Laugh contest, so I get to go first. And my stock of the week is Suno, the AI-generated music startup that seems to be striking accord with people. The information reported that Suno is generating around $150 million in annual recurring revenue from subscriptions quadruple its sales from a year ago. And a separate

report revealed that the company is looking to raise $100 million at a valuation of $2 billion. It shows that AI music is catching on in a big way, a development that some celebrate as the democratization of music production and others fear as the demise of music itself. At a basic level, Suno works like this. You type in a prompt and it'll create a song, on your description. So if you were to say, write a bubbly pop song about an emotionally immature band and include lots of innuendo, it'll probably spit out something that sounds a lot like Sabrina Carpenter. The possibilities are infinite. But that's Suno 101. And in the past year, the company has added more sophisticated features that have attracted paying users who shell out

up to 30 bucks a month to access them. With their tremendous growth, Suno and its fierce rival Udio have caught the attention of the $20 billion music streaming industry. The three big players there, Universal, Sony, and Warner sued them last year over copyright infringement, accusing the startups of stealing songs to train their models. But at the same time, the music giants want to partner with the upstarts because they're not dumb and no AI is coming to disrupt them. Bottom line, Toby, Suno is one of the few AI consumer apps to hit the mainstream. And I played around with it a lot yesterday.

As a lot of people in the office heard, I am not musically inclined. I am more of a vibes guy. and I toss in a song whose lyrics I'd kind of been noodling on for a while, and it gave the vibe I once, it's a banger, it is a banger, I've been playing it nonstop, I was genuinely shocked at how little effort I put in and how much I got out of it. But one of the reasons why it's sticking around and it's being lauded as, you know, the first AI consumer app outside of chat chbtee to actually have a sticky user base is it is a sticky product to use as soon as you make one song,

you definitely want to make another. and then it also has feature depth, whereas a lot of these AI tools, maybe like a headshot generator, it's a nice gimmick, but it's a one-time thing. This, if you are a musician, if you do have musical ability, you can start to tweak the hook, you can dive deeper into the premium features. I had no idea what to do with them, and I'm still just in that free tier. But that is the reason why you're seeing such growth and such revenue from this business is because it does have a layer that you can go deeper than just that initial novelty. You remind me a lot of Oliver, Oliver McCann, who is a British AI music creator, he told the Associated Press, I have no musical talent

at all. I can't sing. I can't play instruments and I have no musical background at all. Well, recently, he became the first AI music creator to sign a contract with a record label because his tracks racked up millions and millions of streams. So this, to its supporters, and this does have some supporters in the music industry, Imaging Heep, Will I.M., these folks, like, really love new tools to be able to play with. And they say this is opening up a new toolbox for people to be able to create music. They say this is why this is caught on and this is why people are paying up 30 bucks a month to have this company reach $150 million in revenue. Of course, there's a ton of backlash as well from the music industry from a bunch of artists who say

this is going to lead to basically infinite slop. You know, Toby, not every AI music creator can create, you know, iconic hit like you can. And so this is going to be flooding our streaming services, DISA, we don't know how much AI music really is out there because Spotify and other streaming services don't disclose how much AI music, you know, is on their platforms. But there is one, Dizer, which is a streaming service, it estimates that 18% of songs uploaded to its platform every day are purely AI generated. It makes me want to test this out. It makes me want to dive deeper into Sino and see if I could start attracting listeners on Spotify because I don't know how you would know it's AI. I mean, maybe someone with a very trained ear could, but

just to normal people like you and me. I don't know, you have actually a pretty trained ear. I want to run a test and see if, like, can I start to build a following on Spotify? Is it easy to do this? Just because creating the songs themselves is so easy. So fascinating, you know, paradigm that we're entering into. If you are a musician,

I would love to hear people who are in the music industry weigh in on this as well. All right, we're going to take a quick break and come back with our dog of the week. Hey, honey, it's mom. Did you know if we switched to Verizon we can get four phones for $0,000, plus four lines for $25 a line.

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Coffee shop, get an insurance quote, simply and easily, and made sure a floral delivery van was able to make someone's day. We're the Hartford, with decades of experience ensuring millions of unique small businesses. When it comes to your small business insurance, one size absolutely does not fit all. Get a quote or find an agent today at thehartford.com slash small business. My dog of the week is obesity because it's trending down. class of drugs like OZempec and Monjaro have helped shrink

waistlines and grow the bottom line of pharma companies since their release and now their effects are starting to show up in a national health data as well according to a new survey by the Gallup National Health and Well-Being Index the share of obese U.S. adults fell to 37% in 2025, down from a high of nearly 40% in 2022. That translates to roughly 7.6 million fewer obese adults in just three years. While diet and exercise deserve their flowers, injectable weight loss drugs are the key variable here, with 12.4% of U.S. adults saying that they are users more than double the share of last year. Officials see this moment as a potential public health turning point.

If obesity rates continue to decline at this pace, it would reshape the country's long-term health profile faster than any one single policy or wellness trend in the last decade. It's also boosting profits for the companies slinging this class of drugs, with Eli Lilly reporting third quarter earnings yesterday that blew past estimates on the back of strong sales for its blockbuster drugs, Zepbound and Monjaro. Neil, these drugs have been out on the market long enough that we're seeing their impact on a national scale.

Maybe we've seen peak obesity. Yeah, this is sort of a, if it walks like a dock, and it talks like a duck situation, because there's no direct correlation or causation that you can draw from this particular Gallup survey to say that the increase of GLP1 use has directly led to a decline in obesity, but common sense says that this is what's happening, because the biggest reduction in obesity was among those age 40 to 49 and 50 to 64.

Those are the exact same age groups with the highest rate of injectables for weight loss. So if you just kind of put one in one, two and two together, you see that this is actually having an impact, and you also look at the growth in how many people are using it. And yes, Eli Lilly reported earnings yesterday and absolutely blew it out of the water, Zaharo sales were up 109% from the same period. A year ago, Zepbound was up 184%. And it's putting some distance between it and Novo Nordisk, which made Ozenpick and Wagovi and was seen as the leader for many years as these things exploded back in 2021. Now, Eli Lilly is putting the pedal to the medal and really putting some distance between itself and Novo Nordisk.

And we're seeing some bidding wars start to break out as well. Novo Nordis just launched a hostile bid for this. weight loss drug maker, Matt Serra, in igniting this big pharma bidding war, Pfizer had initially submitted a bid to it, and then Nova Nordus came in over the top, 11% higher than the initial bid. So we are seeing, you know, billions of dollars being outlaid here to keep your nose ahead. I mean, I can't help but think about the AI war that's happening in big tech. The exact same thing is happening in the pharma world with these weight loss drugs where if you aren't, you know, developing these drugs, if you aren't trying to stay ahead of your competition,

you are just falling behind by default. So I do think that this is the next frontier because obviously we're seeing widespread adoption and it is having real health impact. So Big Pharma wants to not be on the losing side of this particular trend. Because in two years when we're having the same exact discussion, we're not going to be talking about Wagovi-Zep bound Monjaro. We're going to be talking about the new class of drugs that are even better and have, you know, that are easier to ingest and that have fewer side effects.

So the company that Nova Nordisk and Pfizer are in this, bidding war over does eliminate a lot of the side effects. They're developing a pill and the pill really is the holy grail. Because right now it is an injectable to do this. And if you develop a pill that has the same effects or even better effects, then that's going to sell way even, way better than the injectable. It's just much easier to administer. So there is a huge arms race right now to develop the weight loss pill.

Yeah, one name to remember here is O for Glypron, which I practiced before the show. I dared you to say that on the pod. That's Eli Lilly's next-gen experimental, one drug, which is, it is a pill. It would replace the injectable. All right, let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. Less than a week before election day, the New York City mayoral race took a plot twist straight out of a Seinfeld episode. On Tuesday, the normally reputable Times of London published a story that quoted Bill de Blasio as criticizing frontrunner Zoran Mamdani's tax

policy. It was a surprise development given that former New York City mayor Bill de Blasio had long been a big supporter of Mamdani. But when former Mayor de Blasio caught wind of the story, He read it and said, huh? That's not my quotes. I never once talked with this reporter about Mamdani. I demand that you retract this. And he was right. Turns out the Times of London reporter had talked with Bill de Blasio, but not former mayor Bill de Blasio. He talked with 59-year-old Long Island wine importer Bill de Blasio. The two have the same name, but the reporter emailed the wrong Billy D, who decided to play along in what he thought was harmless fun. The Times of London acknowledged the mistake and deleted the story from its site. Toby, as if news

York City politics wasn't bizarre enough. I mean, I was just confused listening to you explain that. The easiest way to delineate between the two is the wine importer uses a lowercase D.E. So it's D Blasio with a lowercase D. So maybe we'll call him lowercase D when we're talking about this conversation. But it was funny. The two had actually met prior. When you have the same name as the mayor, your life is going to change when he is elected mayor. And one thing they said, they met at a Mets game. and the wine importer said, I am getting killed by you. I get all this hate mail coming to my email.

He literally said, dude, you are killing me because of just the amount of hate you receive when you share a name with a mayor. So very funny right now. He says that he wasn't trying to impersonate it. He is Bill de Blasio. So when he's addressed by his name, he just responded in jest.

He didn't think it would actually make it to print, but it is just a very funny situation all together with two Billy D's in the world. Next time you're on a flight, try to make sure you don't drop your laptop or your phone in a place you can't retrieve it. You might just force the entire plane to turn around. That's what happened on October 15th to a United Airlines flight from Dulles to Rome. As the plane was southeast to Boston on its way to Europe, it did a U-turn back to Northern Virginia because a passenger dropped their laptop behind a cabin wall panel that led to the cargo hold.

It might have been a non-issue, but out of an abundance of caution, the pilot decided to return to Dulles because the laptop has a famously expletable lithium, battery that in its current location wouldn't be close to a fire suppression system on the Boeing 767. After he told this to the air traffic controller, they responded, I've never heard anything like that before. Good story to tell at the pilot lounge. The passengers may not have been as amused, but they did eventually get to roam. All laptops accounted for four and a half hours later than scheduled. Brutal turn of events there. You drop your laptop and you just go, do that just slide into the cargo hold and then it gets worse from there when the whole plane has to turn around?

I think they should have called out the seat of the passenger when they were doing the announcements. The pilot comes on the intercom and goes, yeah, the guy had 14C, he let his laptop slide in the cargo hold. Now all your travel days are ruined. Again, blame him, 14C. 14C is the guy. I don't know if it was actually 14C, but I think name and shame in that situation. Pilots called out everyone who dropped anything from their seat, then, you know, they would be busy the whole flight. You've never dropped anything before?

I've never dropped anything. The worst thing I did is one time I sat in a... pack of gum and it, you know, fused in my butt, and so I got up after the plane. So I don't think you're turning any flights around for that, but yeah, I keep, I keep control of myself. Actually, I will say one time, if you drop your AirPods, anyone who's dropped your AirPods knows this. It explodes in ways that physics can't even understand. You see one AirPods is 12 rolls down. One AirPods is somehow in the cargo hold as well. So never mind. I am starting to empathize with this guy. Finally, it's the end of daylight saving time on Sunday, which means your clocks will fall back one

hour at 2 a.m. local. On the plus side, that means you have one extra hour of sleep coming your way, but it also means it's getting dark at 4.30 p.m. Say goodbye to sneaking a round of golf in after work. Sunday is also a very special day in New York City because it is marathon day. I bring this up in conjunction with daylight saving because, again, the extra hour sleep is nice, but it also bumps the race into the hotter portion of the day. If you are running the race, congrats, but also there's a little built-in excuse for you in case things, go sideways. The end of daylight saving made it too hot. Yeah, I don't want to be a huge

buzz Killington here, but if you look at the sunset for New York City on Monday, it's 4.50 p.m. 4.50. That's pretty early. Then again, there is a silver lining if you are an early riser because it's been getting light a lot later nowadays,

but with daylight saving time start ending, then it's going to revert back an hour of the sunrise. So it's going to start, the sun will start coming up around 6.30 a.m. You literally are at Buzz Killington. You are dressed as Buzz Light. You're in front of my eyes.

And way to slide in there, early risers there. Do you get up early for something? No, no, no. Okay, I sleep in. Okay, that is all the time we have. Thanks for starting your boarding with us. Have a wonderful Halloween and a spook-tastic weekend. Congrats to the winner of this week's ladder game, Laura Lozano,

who is one of hundreds of listeners to submit the correct answer. And that is the five items we gave you are ordered by shelf life. Shell Life. Enjoy your MBD swag, Laura. And thanks to everyone who play. For any feedback on the show or you just want to get in contact with us, send a note to Morning Brew Daily at Morningbrew.com or slide into our DMs on Instagram at MB Daily Show. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Lute is our producer. Our associate producers are Olivia Graham and Olivia Lake. Hair and makeup is scrambling for a costume. Devin Emery is our president and our show is a production of Morning Brew.

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